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American Morning
Bombings in Iraq; Fighting the Insurgency; President's Report Card
Aired April 29, 2005 - 9:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. There has been a rash of new attacks in Iraq. Nine car bombs exploding in just a matter of hours. Twenty-four dead, 100 injured today.
The president in primetime with a hard sell. Now back on the road already today, pitching more Social Security reform.
And tracking dangerous potentially damaging storm popping up across the South. That story as well as we continue this hour on AMERICAN MORNING.
ANNOUNCER: From the CNN Broadcast Center in New York, this is AMERICAN MORNING with Bill Hemmer and Soledad O'Brien.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. Welcome back, everybody.
The president covering lots of ground in his news conference last night. It's only the fourth time that he's talked to reporters in primetime like this. So why this time? Why this venue? And what were his best and worst moments?
This morning we're talking with CNN's political Ron Brownstein. That's ahead in a second.
HEMMER: Also in a moment here, we'll get that big boom out of the way. And the Michael Jackson trial continues today, accessing the damage to the prosecution after two days of surprise testimony from the singer's ex-wife. Whoa, kind of took it in a whole new direction, didn't it?
O'BRIEN: Why would the prosecutors have her on at all? It's almost like they were -- they had no idea what she was going to say.
HEMMER: You never know what's going to come out of the mouth of a witness, especially in this case.
What's happening over there, man?
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: The "Question of the Day" revolves around the headlines to come out of that presidential news conference last night. "New York Times," "The Washington Post," big headlines, "President Wants to Cut Social Security."
What he's suggesting is reducing long-term benefits for the more affluent members of this society. But nevertheless, the political sharks are already in the water. Conservative Republicans worrying it could cost them in the off-year elections next year. Democrats are screaming already, he wants to cut Social Security.
Is a cut in benefits, as the president suggests, the solution to solving the Social Security problem? He said rather difficulty. AM@CNN.com.
HEMMER: Thanks.
O'BRIEN: You got it?
CAFFERTY: It's Friday. I'm tired.
O'BRIEN: I hear you, Jack.
Let's get right to the headlines with Carol Costello.
Good morning again.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. Good morning to all of you.
"Now in the News," suspected terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is urging his followers to keep attacking U.S. forces. The message appears in an audio message purportedly from Zarqawi posted on two Islamic Web sites. CNN not able to verify the tape at this time.
There's a lot going on in Iraq today. So let's get right to CNN's Ryan Chilcote. He's in Baghdad with more details.
Hello, Ryan.
RYAN CHILCOTE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hello, Carol. Unfortunately, lots of violence to talk about in Baghdad alone today.
We start in eastern Baghdad, where there was a double bombing just a few hours ago. One car bomb went off. A Reuters crew rushed to the scene to begin filming. That's when a second car bomb went off.
The Reuters crew was OK, thankfully. However, one Iraqi civilian was killed in that attack, eight Iraqi policemen were wounded.
That was just one of 11 bombings in Baghdad this morning, all of those before noon. The target in all of them, Iraqi security forces. Iraqi police telling us at least 23 people killed at this point, about 100 wounded.
The U.S. military has put out a statement saying that this is the terrorists' desperate attempt to discredit Iraq's newly formed government.
COSTELLO: Ryan Chilcote live from Baghdad. I apologize for that.
A third-grader in north Pennsylvania is now suspended for sticking 19 of her classmates with a needle. And one of them tested positive for HIV on a preliminary test. Officials from the school district met with concerned parents on Thursday night. It turns out the 8-year-old took the needle from her mother, who used it for diabetes blood testing.
An Army sergeant has been sentenced to death for a deadly grenade and rifle attack against his fellow soldiers in Kuwait. Hasan Akbar killed two Americans and wounded 14 others in the 2003 attack. He was found guilty of two counts of premeditated murder and three counts of attempted murder last week. Akbar's death sentence is now under review.
And Indiana is getting with the time. The governor is expected to sign a bill that would put the state on daylight saving time next April. Most of the state does not spring forward, and businesses and lobbyists say the current system causes mix-ups over everything from airline flights to conference calls. So Indiana now joins most of the rest of the country -- Bill.
HEMMER: Carol, thanks for that.
Four minutes past the hour. And back to the news from Iraq today.
Peter Maass knows firsthand what is driving the deadly Iraqi insurgency and what it will take to defeat it. Moss tagged along with a counterinsurgency group in Iraq fighting these shadowy forces. His report in this Sunday's "New York Times" magazine.
And Peter my guest here now in New York.
Good to see you again. And thanks for coming back.
PETER MAASS, "NEW YORK TIMES" MAGAZINE: Good to be here.
HEMMER: Given the news of the day, what is the strength of the insurgency as best you can report?
MAASS: The strength of the insurgency is that they continue to be there. And they'll probably be there for a number of years. I mean, it takes traditionally at least five to 10 years for government forces, whether it's in the Middle East, the Balkans, or Latin America, to defeat an insurgency.
HEMMER: You write partly, though, the template for Iraq today is not Vietnam, but El Salvador. Explain that.
MAASS: Well, El Salvador was a situation in which you had this domestic insurgency that was fighting against a government that was backed by the U.S., that was armed by the U.S., that was trained by the U.S., and that's more and more the situation in Iraq. You have more and more local forces, Iraqis, who are fighting against the insurgents, and they are being armed and trained by the Americans.
HEMMER: So is that what you mean where the U.S. is going into more of an advisory role today in Iraq? MAASS: That's the plan. I mean, and that's -- that's happening. Of course Americans are still kind of in the lead in Iraq. But more and more, as much as is possible, they're trying to go into an advisory role, having Iraqi forces out front.
HEMMER: Who are the most effective counterinsurgency groups being developed today? Are they Shiites or are they Sunnis?
MAASS: Well, kind of ironically in a sense, this group that I followed, which is special police commandos in the interior ministry -- there are about 5,000 of them -- they are led by Sunnis, and most of them are from the Republican Guard and other special forces that served under Saddam Hussein.
HEMMER: Did that surprise you?
MAASS: Well, it did and it didn't. Because what surprised me most was that, in a sense, they've finally been brought on board.
Everybody knew for a long time that the best fighters in Iraq were the ones who fought under Saddam Hussein. The question was, are they reliable enough, will they fight under the new government? And what this force shows is that actually there are some who are willing to do so.
HEMMER: Well, but they're fighting Sunni against Sunni then in that case, right?
MAASS: Exactly.
HEMMER: How difficult is that to recruit them and to get them to act?
MAASS: Well, you know, it's not that difficult to recruit them, because in terms of the rank and file soldiers, they need the money, they need the paychecks. In terms of the leaders, the former generals who are now coming on board, for them it's a matter of getting power. If you're a Sunni, you can get power two ways, through the insurgency or by joining the government and becoming a force within the government.
HEMMER: One final thing. Let's talk about a time frame. You mentioned five to 10 years to defeat an insurgency like this.
MAASS: Right.
HEMMER: Is that what you're suggesting now, as long as a decade or possibly longer?
MAASS: I mean, it's not just me suggesting it. I think most people agree, if you look at the history of insurgency, and you look at what's going on in Iraq right now, five to 10 years is probably an optimistic scenario.
HEMMER: Peter Maass from "The New York Times" magazine. We'll read your story over the weekend. Thanks, Peter. MAASS: Thank you.
HEMMER: Soledad.
O'BRIEN: Iraq, Social Security, gas prices, President Bush talked about them all during last night night's news conference. How did he do on the big issues? CNN political analyst and "LA Times" columnist Ron Brownstein joins us this morning.
Nice to see you, Ron, as always.
RON BROWNSTEIN, "LA TIMES": Good morning, Soledad.
O'BRIEN: You write this morning about a midcourse correction from the president's remarks last night. What do you mean by that?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, there was a lot of resolve and there was a lot of optimism. But there were subtle shifts in direction for the president on two important fronts.
First of all, he has spent much of this year talking about Social Security. The Republicans on Capitol Hill have spent a lot of time talking about Terri Schiavo, and judges, at a time when Americans are growing increasingly anxious about energy and gas prices and the economy. So you saw a very clear attempt last night to begin his press conference by talking about gas prices and what he would do about them.
And on Social Security itself we saw a shift in emphasis. Again, the emphasis for the president this year has been carving out private investment accounts under Social Security.
The Republicans on Capitol Hill looking at poll numbers that have shown declining support for this idea, amid the president's 60-day sales effort, have been urging him to try to shift the focus somewhat toward the system's long-term solvency. And that's exactly what he did with the one new idea he put on the table last night, endorsing this notion that benefits in the future should grow faster for low- income people than middle and upper-income people as a way to close that long-term financing gap.
O'BRIEN: We're going to talk more about both of those two details in just a moment. But I'm curious to know what you think overall.
The president seemed, to me, at least, to be relaxed. He was joking with some of the reporters. How would you rate his performance kind of in the big picture?
BROWNSTEIN: I thought he was relaxed. I thought he was confident.
You know, in a question about the economy last night, he said, "I'm an optimistic fellow." And if the evening had been set to music, that would have been the chorus, because he kept coming back, whether it was Iraq, the war on terror, the impact of his No Child Left Behind education reform, the prospects of getting Social Security. On all of these fronts he was relentlessly optimistic.
The question, I think, is whether he put enough out there to change the dynamic that he's facing. He's looking at an approval rating that's under 50 percent at this point, Soledad. The lowest that Gallup has recorded for any reelected president this early in the second term since World War II.
You've got a lot of questions about his ability to move the Social Security plan not only because of Democratic, but also Republican resistance on Capitol Hill. And obviously the concern about the economy is taking a bite out of all elected officials.
So he had a lot of optimism. Whether he had as much to be optimistic about is another question.
O'BRIEN: You talked about Social Security and sort of the one new detail we got. You talked about gas prices and how that's really how the president came right out of the gate, talking about something that I think is very important to Americans right now. He talked about John Bolton as well.
And you give him his highest marks for the whole press conference, news conference, about John Bolton. Why?
BROWNSTEIN: Yes. I would give him an A on that answer. I thought that was a very, very strong answer, saw Bush at his best.
What he tried to do was political jujitsu. He tried to turn the arguments of the critics around on them.
His basic case for John Bolton, who is, of course, his nominee as ambassador to the U.N., is that, yes, this is a tough guy, he can be abrasive, but that's exactly what we need to change the U.N. The U.N. needs to be changed, and this is the kind of bull in the china shop who can do it.
What he was trying to do was put the critics in the position where they are defending the status quo at the U.N., which has never been, on its own, an inherently popular institution with many Americans.
O'BRIEN: Ron Brownstein, as always, nice to chat with you. Thanks.
BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.
O'BRIEN: Bill.
HEMMER: Soledad, thanks.
Severe and dangerous storms popping up across the Southeast. Back to Chad Myers for more on this.
What are you seeing, Chad?
CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: A couple of waves actually today, Bill.
(WEATHER REPORT)
HEMMER: Chad, thanks.
Now to Chris Lawrence. Now he's live at the National Weather Service in Little Rock, Arkansas.
Chris, good morning there.
CHRIS LAWRENCE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hey. Good morning, Bill.
Right now, the bad weather and the storms are in the northern part of Arkansas, moving our way. And the folks here at the National Weather Service are tracking that storm literally minute by minute.
Now, when you say prepare for dangerous weather, a lot of us tend to think of boarding up windows, tying things down. But when you've survived a tornado, literally been lifted out of your own home, like some of the folks here in Arkansas, it can be a matter of just coming to grips with the idea that this could happen again.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
LAWRENCE (voice-over): Nobody that lived through them will ever forget those Arkansas tornadoes in 1999.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: There's a tornado right out my back door! You can see it! Oh, my god! Oh!
LAWRENCE: Donald Ward was the mayor of Beebe, Arkansas. He survived the night in a bathtub, huddled over his wife and kids.
MAYOR DONALD WARD, BEEBE, ARKANSAS: The shower tub combination tore loose, and literally the tornado drug us for 40 feet into the back yard.
LAWRENCE: And when they climbed out, everything was gone.
CARLA WARD, MAYOR'S WIFE: But thank god, he brought us through. It's only by the miracle of god that we made it.
LAWRENCE (on camera): Six years ago, your wife sounded like she was thankful just to be alive. Do you get scared now?
D. WARD: There's fear. I have to be honest with you.
When I hear severe weather, I become excited, tense. I can close my eyes right now in talking to you, and I can be vividly back in my home. I can still have -- feel debris hitting my face. But then again, I come back and say, hey, god took care of us that night, he'll take care of us again.
LAWRENCE (voice-over): The deadly tornado destroyed dozen of homes, as well as churches and schools. The town had to rebuild from scratch. But these new schools have reinforced everything, including a shelter lined with 10 inches of concrete.
KEITH WILLIAMS, BEEBE SCHOOL SUPERINTENDENT: After watching it built, I would have no reservations at all being in this building and being safe with a tornado going right over it.
LAWRENCE: But as confident as folks sound, no one here really wants to put that to the test.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
LAWRENCE: Yes. So far, people have been calling in here to the center reporting hail bigger than the size of these quarters. And according to Chris Bonano (ph) and some of the latest forecasts, the greatest possibility for tornadoes is going to be later this afternoon into early evening, probably in the southeastern part of the state -- Bill.
HEMMER: You're in the heart of it. Chris Lawrence, thanks, in Little Rock, Arkansas.
Plans for the next space shuttle put on hold again. What is NASA's biggest concern now? Miles O'Brien gives us an update live in a moment.
O'BRIEN: And Michael Jackson's ex sings (ph) for the defense at his trial, again. How did Debbie Rowe go from prosecution's star witness to defense darling? We'll take a look ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
O'BRIEN: The lead prosecutor in Michael Jackson's trial says he will call three new witnesses today. We don't know who they will be.
Jackson's ex-wife, meanwhile, Debbie Rowe, was back on the stand Thursday supposedly for the prosecution. Criminal defense attorney Anne Bremner is back with us in Santa Maria, California.
I said "supposedly," Anne. Did they get this thing completely wrong?
ANNE BREMNER, CRIMINAL DEFENSE ATTORNEY: You know, from what the jury heard, absolutely. She testified to the opposite, the exact opposite of what the prosecutors told the jurors she would say in their opening statement.
She was to say she was forced to give a video, she was coerced, and visitation of her children was held over her head by Michael Jackson and his agents. She said the exact opposite, and then even went further and talked about what a wonderful person is he and how he is he a victim of a conspiracy.
HEMMER: Now, how could that happen? How could a witness that was said to be the star in this case come into the finish line, turn so drastically against the prosecution and what they expected? BREMNER: There's a number of possibilities. One is that she wasn't, you know, interviewed enough in -- to begin with. The second is, is that, you know, she basically said, yeah, I gave the video because I wanted to see my children, and there was a misunderstanding, because she hasn't seen them for some time. Or she basically wants to help Michael Jackson.
She wanted to see him. She got in to see him. And she even said things on the stand like, "I just want to talk to him."
She looked at him at times and talked to him directly. She talked about, "Was that the 'Dangerous' tour we were on, Michael?" -- as if they were having a conversation. She hasn't seen him in so long, this was her opportunity to see him.
So there's a lot of possibilities. But the bottom line is, is that she was a dream for the defense.
HEMMER: Yes. But when she was growing up -- and I don't know if this has come out in court or not. When she was growing up, has she admitted whether or not she was a fan of Michael Jackson and to what extent?
BREMNER: I think that there -- she was obsessed with him in a lot of ways. But that didn't really come out in the trial.
You know, she had a shrine to him at her house long before she became involved with him. She calls him her friend. She's a fan.
And she basically said that she would like to reconcile with Michael with her children. And it seemed in a lot of ways she had a lot of love for him, and she expressed that.
She cried, she was emotional. And in a lot of ways, she gave him a ticket to ride on the conspiracy charge.
HEMMER: When Jackson's attorney asked her to describe Michael Jackson, what did she say?
BREMNER: A good person, a good father, a brilliant businessman. She called him "My Michael."
She said, "I'm talking about my Michael, not the public Michael. My Michael."
She said everything she said in that video was spontaneous. And said only glowing, glowing things about him, Bill.
HEMMER: Did Mesereau say something like "defense rests" after that?
BREMNER: Yes. There was another one of -- there were a couple of times in this trial, we just thought, defense rests, you're done.
What he did was he'd move to strike her testimony because she testified to the opposite of what she was supposed to say. So, therefore, she shouldn't have testified at all. You know, they had objected to her. So when he was all done and he had all of this wonderful testimony, he withdrew the motion.
HEMMER: Thanks, Anne. Anne Bremner. More today. We'll watch it.
BREMNER: Thanks.
HEMMER: Tuesday we expect the prosecution to wrap up its case. So we'll see if that's the case then. Thank you.
In a moment, 30 years ago he came to this country without a penny. Now he's giving back millions to war victims thousands of miles away, and giving a hand to war vets here at home. His story, and it is a good one, still to come this morning.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
O'BRIEN: Welcome back, everybody. Social Security is what's on Jack's mind this morning.
Good morning.
CAFFERTY: Good morning.
President Bush in his speech last night said he wants to cut Social Security benefits, future benefits for wealthier retirees. But don't be fooled. It's called the third rail of American politics for a reason.
The Democrats are already branding the proposal as a massive cut in Social Security. "The Washington Post", "The New York Times" both headlined it that way.
Conservative Republicans are worried that the fallout from this kind of change in direction could hurt them in next year's off-year elections. But with support for the private accounts almost not existent, the president decided to roll the dice.
His idea could actually save Social Security $3 trillion over 75 years. The question is this: is cutting benefits the way to save or solve Social Security's problems?
Diane writes, "Cutting benefits is the not the way to save Social Security. I'd like to see Mr. Bush put back the surplus he raided to fund the war. But since I don't see that happening, life the cap on Social Security. Social Security can survive on its own if it's funded equally by all wage earners."
Karen in Connecticut writes, "What I don't understand is how we can get billions of dollars to help the unfortunate victims of disasters around the world and yet we can't fund Social Security to help our own seniors in their so-called golden years, especially since they've worked hard all of their lives and paid taxes to fund Social Security and every other government program." Bec writes, "So what we are faced with are two options, invest now or pray later. Take the increases in taxes, caps, retirement age now, and invest that money for the future, or take cuts later and pray it will be enough to survive on."
And Sergeant Scott in Camp Cooke, in Iraq, writes, "Cutting benefits to those of us who can most afford it supports the American way of life. Those who have had financial success in their lives should be generous enough to allow their Social Security benefits to go to those who can truly use it."
HEMMER: Shout out for Camp Cooke.
Thank you, Jack.
In a moment here, more to come on AMERICAN MORNING.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
HEMMER (voice-over): Ahead on "90-second Pop," Hollywood's newest "it" couple or odd couple? Tom Cruise and Katie Holmes cozy up in Rome, and we have the pictures.
Plus, Paula cries, the rumors fly, and the favorite gets the boot. What's going on at "American Idol?"
That's later on AMERICAN MORNING.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
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Aired April 29, 2005 - 9:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. There has been a rash of new attacks in Iraq. Nine car bombs exploding in just a matter of hours. Twenty-four dead, 100 injured today.
The president in primetime with a hard sell. Now back on the road already today, pitching more Social Security reform.
And tracking dangerous potentially damaging storm popping up across the South. That story as well as we continue this hour on AMERICAN MORNING.
ANNOUNCER: From the CNN Broadcast Center in New York, this is AMERICAN MORNING with Bill Hemmer and Soledad O'Brien.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. Welcome back, everybody.
The president covering lots of ground in his news conference last night. It's only the fourth time that he's talked to reporters in primetime like this. So why this time? Why this venue? And what were his best and worst moments?
This morning we're talking with CNN's political Ron Brownstein. That's ahead in a second.
HEMMER: Also in a moment here, we'll get that big boom out of the way. And the Michael Jackson trial continues today, accessing the damage to the prosecution after two days of surprise testimony from the singer's ex-wife. Whoa, kind of took it in a whole new direction, didn't it?
O'BRIEN: Why would the prosecutors have her on at all? It's almost like they were -- they had no idea what she was going to say.
HEMMER: You never know what's going to come out of the mouth of a witness, especially in this case.
What's happening over there, man?
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: The "Question of the Day" revolves around the headlines to come out of that presidential news conference last night. "New York Times," "The Washington Post," big headlines, "President Wants to Cut Social Security."
What he's suggesting is reducing long-term benefits for the more affluent members of this society. But nevertheless, the political sharks are already in the water. Conservative Republicans worrying it could cost them in the off-year elections next year. Democrats are screaming already, he wants to cut Social Security.
Is a cut in benefits, as the president suggests, the solution to solving the Social Security problem? He said rather difficulty. AM@CNN.com.
HEMMER: Thanks.
O'BRIEN: You got it?
CAFFERTY: It's Friday. I'm tired.
O'BRIEN: I hear you, Jack.
Let's get right to the headlines with Carol Costello.
Good morning again.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. Good morning to all of you.
"Now in the News," suspected terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is urging his followers to keep attacking U.S. forces. The message appears in an audio message purportedly from Zarqawi posted on two Islamic Web sites. CNN not able to verify the tape at this time.
There's a lot going on in Iraq today. So let's get right to CNN's Ryan Chilcote. He's in Baghdad with more details.
Hello, Ryan.
RYAN CHILCOTE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hello, Carol. Unfortunately, lots of violence to talk about in Baghdad alone today.
We start in eastern Baghdad, where there was a double bombing just a few hours ago. One car bomb went off. A Reuters crew rushed to the scene to begin filming. That's when a second car bomb went off.
The Reuters crew was OK, thankfully. However, one Iraqi civilian was killed in that attack, eight Iraqi policemen were wounded.
That was just one of 11 bombings in Baghdad this morning, all of those before noon. The target in all of them, Iraqi security forces. Iraqi police telling us at least 23 people killed at this point, about 100 wounded.
The U.S. military has put out a statement saying that this is the terrorists' desperate attempt to discredit Iraq's newly formed government.
COSTELLO: Ryan Chilcote live from Baghdad. I apologize for that.
A third-grader in north Pennsylvania is now suspended for sticking 19 of her classmates with a needle. And one of them tested positive for HIV on a preliminary test. Officials from the school district met with concerned parents on Thursday night. It turns out the 8-year-old took the needle from her mother, who used it for diabetes blood testing.
An Army sergeant has been sentenced to death for a deadly grenade and rifle attack against his fellow soldiers in Kuwait. Hasan Akbar killed two Americans and wounded 14 others in the 2003 attack. He was found guilty of two counts of premeditated murder and three counts of attempted murder last week. Akbar's death sentence is now under review.
And Indiana is getting with the time. The governor is expected to sign a bill that would put the state on daylight saving time next April. Most of the state does not spring forward, and businesses and lobbyists say the current system causes mix-ups over everything from airline flights to conference calls. So Indiana now joins most of the rest of the country -- Bill.
HEMMER: Carol, thanks for that.
Four minutes past the hour. And back to the news from Iraq today.
Peter Maass knows firsthand what is driving the deadly Iraqi insurgency and what it will take to defeat it. Moss tagged along with a counterinsurgency group in Iraq fighting these shadowy forces. His report in this Sunday's "New York Times" magazine.
And Peter my guest here now in New York.
Good to see you again. And thanks for coming back.
PETER MAASS, "NEW YORK TIMES" MAGAZINE: Good to be here.
HEMMER: Given the news of the day, what is the strength of the insurgency as best you can report?
MAASS: The strength of the insurgency is that they continue to be there. And they'll probably be there for a number of years. I mean, it takes traditionally at least five to 10 years for government forces, whether it's in the Middle East, the Balkans, or Latin America, to defeat an insurgency.
HEMMER: You write partly, though, the template for Iraq today is not Vietnam, but El Salvador. Explain that.
MAASS: Well, El Salvador was a situation in which you had this domestic insurgency that was fighting against a government that was backed by the U.S., that was armed by the U.S., that was trained by the U.S., and that's more and more the situation in Iraq. You have more and more local forces, Iraqis, who are fighting against the insurgents, and they are being armed and trained by the Americans.
HEMMER: So is that what you mean where the U.S. is going into more of an advisory role today in Iraq? MAASS: That's the plan. I mean, and that's -- that's happening. Of course Americans are still kind of in the lead in Iraq. But more and more, as much as is possible, they're trying to go into an advisory role, having Iraqi forces out front.
HEMMER: Who are the most effective counterinsurgency groups being developed today? Are they Shiites or are they Sunnis?
MAASS: Well, kind of ironically in a sense, this group that I followed, which is special police commandos in the interior ministry -- there are about 5,000 of them -- they are led by Sunnis, and most of them are from the Republican Guard and other special forces that served under Saddam Hussein.
HEMMER: Did that surprise you?
MAASS: Well, it did and it didn't. Because what surprised me most was that, in a sense, they've finally been brought on board.
Everybody knew for a long time that the best fighters in Iraq were the ones who fought under Saddam Hussein. The question was, are they reliable enough, will they fight under the new government? And what this force shows is that actually there are some who are willing to do so.
HEMMER: Well, but they're fighting Sunni against Sunni then in that case, right?
MAASS: Exactly.
HEMMER: How difficult is that to recruit them and to get them to act?
MAASS: Well, you know, it's not that difficult to recruit them, because in terms of the rank and file soldiers, they need the money, they need the paychecks. In terms of the leaders, the former generals who are now coming on board, for them it's a matter of getting power. If you're a Sunni, you can get power two ways, through the insurgency or by joining the government and becoming a force within the government.
HEMMER: One final thing. Let's talk about a time frame. You mentioned five to 10 years to defeat an insurgency like this.
MAASS: Right.
HEMMER: Is that what you're suggesting now, as long as a decade or possibly longer?
MAASS: I mean, it's not just me suggesting it. I think most people agree, if you look at the history of insurgency, and you look at what's going on in Iraq right now, five to 10 years is probably an optimistic scenario.
HEMMER: Peter Maass from "The New York Times" magazine. We'll read your story over the weekend. Thanks, Peter. MAASS: Thank you.
HEMMER: Soledad.
O'BRIEN: Iraq, Social Security, gas prices, President Bush talked about them all during last night night's news conference. How did he do on the big issues? CNN political analyst and "LA Times" columnist Ron Brownstein joins us this morning.
Nice to see you, Ron, as always.
RON BROWNSTEIN, "LA TIMES": Good morning, Soledad.
O'BRIEN: You write this morning about a midcourse correction from the president's remarks last night. What do you mean by that?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, there was a lot of resolve and there was a lot of optimism. But there were subtle shifts in direction for the president on two important fronts.
First of all, he has spent much of this year talking about Social Security. The Republicans on Capitol Hill have spent a lot of time talking about Terri Schiavo, and judges, at a time when Americans are growing increasingly anxious about energy and gas prices and the economy. So you saw a very clear attempt last night to begin his press conference by talking about gas prices and what he would do about them.
And on Social Security itself we saw a shift in emphasis. Again, the emphasis for the president this year has been carving out private investment accounts under Social Security.
The Republicans on Capitol Hill looking at poll numbers that have shown declining support for this idea, amid the president's 60-day sales effort, have been urging him to try to shift the focus somewhat toward the system's long-term solvency. And that's exactly what he did with the one new idea he put on the table last night, endorsing this notion that benefits in the future should grow faster for low- income people than middle and upper-income people as a way to close that long-term financing gap.
O'BRIEN: We're going to talk more about both of those two details in just a moment. But I'm curious to know what you think overall.
The president seemed, to me, at least, to be relaxed. He was joking with some of the reporters. How would you rate his performance kind of in the big picture?
BROWNSTEIN: I thought he was relaxed. I thought he was confident.
You know, in a question about the economy last night, he said, "I'm an optimistic fellow." And if the evening had been set to music, that would have been the chorus, because he kept coming back, whether it was Iraq, the war on terror, the impact of his No Child Left Behind education reform, the prospects of getting Social Security. On all of these fronts he was relentlessly optimistic.
The question, I think, is whether he put enough out there to change the dynamic that he's facing. He's looking at an approval rating that's under 50 percent at this point, Soledad. The lowest that Gallup has recorded for any reelected president this early in the second term since World War II.
You've got a lot of questions about his ability to move the Social Security plan not only because of Democratic, but also Republican resistance on Capitol Hill. And obviously the concern about the economy is taking a bite out of all elected officials.
So he had a lot of optimism. Whether he had as much to be optimistic about is another question.
O'BRIEN: You talked about Social Security and sort of the one new detail we got. You talked about gas prices and how that's really how the president came right out of the gate, talking about something that I think is very important to Americans right now. He talked about John Bolton as well.
And you give him his highest marks for the whole press conference, news conference, about John Bolton. Why?
BROWNSTEIN: Yes. I would give him an A on that answer. I thought that was a very, very strong answer, saw Bush at his best.
What he tried to do was political jujitsu. He tried to turn the arguments of the critics around on them.
His basic case for John Bolton, who is, of course, his nominee as ambassador to the U.N., is that, yes, this is a tough guy, he can be abrasive, but that's exactly what we need to change the U.N. The U.N. needs to be changed, and this is the kind of bull in the china shop who can do it.
What he was trying to do was put the critics in the position where they are defending the status quo at the U.N., which has never been, on its own, an inherently popular institution with many Americans.
O'BRIEN: Ron Brownstein, as always, nice to chat with you. Thanks.
BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.
O'BRIEN: Bill.
HEMMER: Soledad, thanks.
Severe and dangerous storms popping up across the Southeast. Back to Chad Myers for more on this.
What are you seeing, Chad?
CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: A couple of waves actually today, Bill.
(WEATHER REPORT)
HEMMER: Chad, thanks.
Now to Chris Lawrence. Now he's live at the National Weather Service in Little Rock, Arkansas.
Chris, good morning there.
CHRIS LAWRENCE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hey. Good morning, Bill.
Right now, the bad weather and the storms are in the northern part of Arkansas, moving our way. And the folks here at the National Weather Service are tracking that storm literally minute by minute.
Now, when you say prepare for dangerous weather, a lot of us tend to think of boarding up windows, tying things down. But when you've survived a tornado, literally been lifted out of your own home, like some of the folks here in Arkansas, it can be a matter of just coming to grips with the idea that this could happen again.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
LAWRENCE (voice-over): Nobody that lived through them will ever forget those Arkansas tornadoes in 1999.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: There's a tornado right out my back door! You can see it! Oh, my god! Oh!
LAWRENCE: Donald Ward was the mayor of Beebe, Arkansas. He survived the night in a bathtub, huddled over his wife and kids.
MAYOR DONALD WARD, BEEBE, ARKANSAS: The shower tub combination tore loose, and literally the tornado drug us for 40 feet into the back yard.
LAWRENCE: And when they climbed out, everything was gone.
CARLA WARD, MAYOR'S WIFE: But thank god, he brought us through. It's only by the miracle of god that we made it.
LAWRENCE (on camera): Six years ago, your wife sounded like she was thankful just to be alive. Do you get scared now?
D. WARD: There's fear. I have to be honest with you.
When I hear severe weather, I become excited, tense. I can close my eyes right now in talking to you, and I can be vividly back in my home. I can still have -- feel debris hitting my face. But then again, I come back and say, hey, god took care of us that night, he'll take care of us again.
LAWRENCE (voice-over): The deadly tornado destroyed dozen of homes, as well as churches and schools. The town had to rebuild from scratch. But these new schools have reinforced everything, including a shelter lined with 10 inches of concrete.
KEITH WILLIAMS, BEEBE SCHOOL SUPERINTENDENT: After watching it built, I would have no reservations at all being in this building and being safe with a tornado going right over it.
LAWRENCE: But as confident as folks sound, no one here really wants to put that to the test.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
LAWRENCE: Yes. So far, people have been calling in here to the center reporting hail bigger than the size of these quarters. And according to Chris Bonano (ph) and some of the latest forecasts, the greatest possibility for tornadoes is going to be later this afternoon into early evening, probably in the southeastern part of the state -- Bill.
HEMMER: You're in the heart of it. Chris Lawrence, thanks, in Little Rock, Arkansas.
Plans for the next space shuttle put on hold again. What is NASA's biggest concern now? Miles O'Brien gives us an update live in a moment.
O'BRIEN: And Michael Jackson's ex sings (ph) for the defense at his trial, again. How did Debbie Rowe go from prosecution's star witness to defense darling? We'll take a look ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
O'BRIEN: The lead prosecutor in Michael Jackson's trial says he will call three new witnesses today. We don't know who they will be.
Jackson's ex-wife, meanwhile, Debbie Rowe, was back on the stand Thursday supposedly for the prosecution. Criminal defense attorney Anne Bremner is back with us in Santa Maria, California.
I said "supposedly," Anne. Did they get this thing completely wrong?
ANNE BREMNER, CRIMINAL DEFENSE ATTORNEY: You know, from what the jury heard, absolutely. She testified to the opposite, the exact opposite of what the prosecutors told the jurors she would say in their opening statement.
She was to say she was forced to give a video, she was coerced, and visitation of her children was held over her head by Michael Jackson and his agents. She said the exact opposite, and then even went further and talked about what a wonderful person is he and how he is he a victim of a conspiracy.
HEMMER: Now, how could that happen? How could a witness that was said to be the star in this case come into the finish line, turn so drastically against the prosecution and what they expected? BREMNER: There's a number of possibilities. One is that she wasn't, you know, interviewed enough in -- to begin with. The second is, is that, you know, she basically said, yeah, I gave the video because I wanted to see my children, and there was a misunderstanding, because she hasn't seen them for some time. Or she basically wants to help Michael Jackson.
She wanted to see him. She got in to see him. And she even said things on the stand like, "I just want to talk to him."
She looked at him at times and talked to him directly. She talked about, "Was that the 'Dangerous' tour we were on, Michael?" -- as if they were having a conversation. She hasn't seen him in so long, this was her opportunity to see him.
So there's a lot of possibilities. But the bottom line is, is that she was a dream for the defense.
HEMMER: Yes. But when she was growing up -- and I don't know if this has come out in court or not. When she was growing up, has she admitted whether or not she was a fan of Michael Jackson and to what extent?
BREMNER: I think that there -- she was obsessed with him in a lot of ways. But that didn't really come out in the trial.
You know, she had a shrine to him at her house long before she became involved with him. She calls him her friend. She's a fan.
And she basically said that she would like to reconcile with Michael with her children. And it seemed in a lot of ways she had a lot of love for him, and she expressed that.
She cried, she was emotional. And in a lot of ways, she gave him a ticket to ride on the conspiracy charge.
HEMMER: When Jackson's attorney asked her to describe Michael Jackson, what did she say?
BREMNER: A good person, a good father, a brilliant businessman. She called him "My Michael."
She said, "I'm talking about my Michael, not the public Michael. My Michael."
She said everything she said in that video was spontaneous. And said only glowing, glowing things about him, Bill.
HEMMER: Did Mesereau say something like "defense rests" after that?
BREMNER: Yes. There was another one of -- there were a couple of times in this trial, we just thought, defense rests, you're done.
What he did was he'd move to strike her testimony because she testified to the opposite of what she was supposed to say. So, therefore, she shouldn't have testified at all. You know, they had objected to her. So when he was all done and he had all of this wonderful testimony, he withdrew the motion.
HEMMER: Thanks, Anne. Anne Bremner. More today. We'll watch it.
BREMNER: Thanks.
HEMMER: Tuesday we expect the prosecution to wrap up its case. So we'll see if that's the case then. Thank you.
In a moment, 30 years ago he came to this country without a penny. Now he's giving back millions to war victims thousands of miles away, and giving a hand to war vets here at home. His story, and it is a good one, still to come this morning.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
O'BRIEN: Welcome back, everybody. Social Security is what's on Jack's mind this morning.
Good morning.
CAFFERTY: Good morning.
President Bush in his speech last night said he wants to cut Social Security benefits, future benefits for wealthier retirees. But don't be fooled. It's called the third rail of American politics for a reason.
The Democrats are already branding the proposal as a massive cut in Social Security. "The Washington Post", "The New York Times" both headlined it that way.
Conservative Republicans are worried that the fallout from this kind of change in direction could hurt them in next year's off-year elections. But with support for the private accounts almost not existent, the president decided to roll the dice.
His idea could actually save Social Security $3 trillion over 75 years. The question is this: is cutting benefits the way to save or solve Social Security's problems?
Diane writes, "Cutting benefits is the not the way to save Social Security. I'd like to see Mr. Bush put back the surplus he raided to fund the war. But since I don't see that happening, life the cap on Social Security. Social Security can survive on its own if it's funded equally by all wage earners."
Karen in Connecticut writes, "What I don't understand is how we can get billions of dollars to help the unfortunate victims of disasters around the world and yet we can't fund Social Security to help our own seniors in their so-called golden years, especially since they've worked hard all of their lives and paid taxes to fund Social Security and every other government program." Bec writes, "So what we are faced with are two options, invest now or pray later. Take the increases in taxes, caps, retirement age now, and invest that money for the future, or take cuts later and pray it will be enough to survive on."
And Sergeant Scott in Camp Cooke, in Iraq, writes, "Cutting benefits to those of us who can most afford it supports the American way of life. Those who have had financial success in their lives should be generous enough to allow their Social Security benefits to go to those who can truly use it."
HEMMER: Shout out for Camp Cooke.
Thank you, Jack.
In a moment here, more to come on AMERICAN MORNING.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
HEMMER (voice-over): Ahead on "90-second Pop," Hollywood's newest "it" couple or odd couple? Tom Cruise and Katie Holmes cozy up in Rome, and we have the pictures.
Plus, Paula cries, the rumors fly, and the favorite gets the boot. What's going on at "American Idol?"
That's later on AMERICAN MORNING.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
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