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American Morning

Signs Of Life In New Orleans; Constitution In Iraq; White House Woes; 'Minding Your Business'

Aired October 17, 2005 - 07:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Carol's here, got a look at headlines. We're looking at the Iraqi constitution. Looks like it might have been approved. Might have been approved.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The referendum in Iraq, maybe so. Iraq's constitution is inching towards approval. Early results from this weekend's referendum show majority support for the charter. President Bush Sunday called the apparently strong turnout signs of "progress toward peace."

In the meantime, the U.S. military says an estimated 70 insurgents have been killed in operations near Ramadi. More on the situation in Iraq with the country's ambassador to the United Nations. That's coming up.

The death toll is climbing from that massive earthquake in South Asia. Pakistani officials now reportedly raising their estimate to more than 54,000. A spokesman for the Pakistani prime minister says relief workers are still trying to reach some hard-hit areas in remote parts of the country.

Supreme Court Nominee Harriet Miers will have some one-on-one meetings today with lawmakers on Capitol Hill. Also, two former Texas Supreme Court justices are due in Washington to show their support for her confirmation. It's apparently part of the White House strategy to shift the focus from Miers' values to her resume.

Hey, it's not easy being green or 50, for that matter. Kermit the Frog is traveling across the globe to celebrate his birthday. He got things started in a town named Kermit, Texas. The town by the way . . .

MILES O'BRIEN: Thank you very much!

COSTELLO: Kermit Roosevelt. He was the eldest son of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was not named after Kermit the Frog. Other stops will include the Eiffel Tower and the Great Wall of China. Kermit on the move on his 50th.

And the Chicago White Sox . . .

MILES O'BRIEN: He looks great, by the way.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: That voice is terrible.

MILES O'BRIEN: It's my Kermit. COSTELLO: That is awful.

Anyhoo, the Chicago White Sox were not terrible. They're headed to the World Series for the first time since 1959. Can you . . .

MILES O'BRIEN: Get out of town. Can you believe that?

COSTELLO: Oh, it's awesome. The White Sox beat the Los Angeles Angels 6-3 last night. Look at them celebrating. They take the American League Champion series four games to one. Chicago will play either the Houston Astros or the St. Louis Cardinals. Game five of the national league champion series is tonight. The curse is officially broken for the White Sox!

MILES O'BRIEN: Well, you had the Red Sox last year, the White Sox this year, next year it will be the Cubs. The Cubs, I mean . . .

COSTELLO: Global warming.

MILES O'BRIEN: Yes, global warming.

COSTELLO: Global warming.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: What's going on?

MILES O'BRIEN: I was talking about the baseball gods. Forget about it. Things aren't right.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: They aren't right.

COSTELLO: Yes.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: Dogs and cats! Anyway, moving on.

The big comeback is underway in the big easy. Among the signs, a school reopening today in the French Quarter. AMERICAN MORNING's Alina Cho is live for us in New Orleans this morning.

Alina, good morning to you. Early, obviously, but I got to imagine people are so ready for this.

ALINA CHO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: They certainly are and very excited. Soledad, good morning to you.

The principal told me just a moment ago, in fact, that it's a little like Christmas Eve and you don't quite know if Santa is coming yet, but classes will be starting here in about an hour. The usual enrollment here in St. Louis Cathedral Academy is about 130 students. Today, about 100 of them will be coming to school. And most of them are children of relief workers. Only 12 are return students. Still, the mere fact that this school is reopening is a sign that New Orleans is coming back.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CHO, (voice over): Larry Moecklin admits it's not easy. Normally there are 20 people on staff at his bakery. Now there are four.

LARRY MOECKLIN, BAKERY OWNER: You know I'm currently the bookkeeper, cake baker, cake icer, cake decorator, floor sweeper, pan washer. You know, doing it all right now.

CHO: Moecklin's family has been baking cakes for New Orleaneans at the Swiss Confectionery since 1921. When Katrina hit, he was forced to shut down. Now, he's filling orders again. Six weddings, countless birthdays, and at least one welcome home.

MOECKLIN: You know, we've been in business here a long time and I think a lot of people look to us to, you know, if they say, that well we can get a Swiss cake this week for our, you know, kid's birthday, they kind of feel like they're normal again.

CHO: Upscale retailer Rubensteins opened in 1924. The store, which will reopen on Tuesday, is on Canal Street, the heart of the city's Central Business District.

DAVID RUBENSTEIN, RETAILER: This is the ultimate identity and it needs to get back so people can focus on it.

CHO: It's part of bringing New Orleans back to normal. People are focused on cleaning up and polishing the city's image. Post- Katrina, many people think of this when they think of New Orleans. What some people may not know is that schools here are reopening, mail service is back and buses are running, too. They're starting to fix the roof of the Superdome. Even the mayor is sweeping the streets. For those who need pampering, the Bella Donna Spa (ph) is open. And on Friday, it was fully booked.

KIM DUDEK, SPA OWNER: As a promise and a commitment to my city I said I just have to get it open. Have to do it.

CHO: Even the new shops are helping. Up the street, the Savvy Gourmet (ph) opened two weeks before Katrina. Owner Aaron Wolfson (ph) originally wanted to make it a cooking school. That changed following the storm. The neighborhood now needs restaurants.

AARON WOLFSON, RESTAURANT OWNER: There were very few options to eat in the neighborhood. People were eating hamburgers and french fries for every single meal. So what we've tried to do is get fresh vegetables from local vendors. We've tried to provide some foods that are a little healthier.

CHO: Larry Moecklin says he's not getting rich baking cakes, but, in some small way, it's his contribution, showing residents it's safe, it's time to come back.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CHO: And here in St. Louis Cathedral Academy, they have lowered the tuition and the principal says no one will be turned away for not being able to pay it. One other note, there is no bus service yet, so this parking lot will be filling up very, very soon. But, Soledad, safe to say, no one really cares about, they're just excited this school is opening again.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: I was going to say, probably the first time you won't hear people complaining about not being able to find a parking spot, right?

CHO: That's right.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: Alina Cho for us this morning.

Thanks, Alina.

Miles.

MILES O'BRIEN: Well, the turnout was big and it wasn't marred by a lot of violence and that is the good news coming out of Iraq in the wake of that vote on the constitution there. Unclear exactly what the final word will be but it appears it is headed for passage. Samir Sumaida'ie is the Iraqi ambassador to the United Nations.

Mr. Sumaida'ie, good to have you with us again.

What is your sense of it? Do you have a fairly good understanding right now as to whether this constitution was, in fact, approved?

SAMIR SUMAIDA'IE, IRAQI AMBASSADOR TO U.N.: Well, it's too early to say. We really have to wait until the official results are out. People will have predictions this way or that way. The significant thing, however, is the fact that most views were included. Well, all views were included. People participated in large number in all the areas of Iraq. And this has sent, again, after the elections of January, the message that the Iraqi people are for the political process. This voting is about the political process, rather than this particular draft of the constitution.

MILES O'BRIEN: Let's talk about the Sunni vote for just a moment. In January, Sunnis stayed home. They boycotted. This time it appears they turned out at the polls, overwhelmingly voting against the constitution. In either case, you're left with alienated Sunnis, are you not?

SUMAIDA'IE: Well, what we have to focus on here is that the Sunnis realized that they that there was no mileage out of boycotts. They had to be part of the system, of the making of the future of Iraq. They had their views and we must remember the process that led to the referendum actually witnessed a great narrowing of the gaps. The starting positions were very far apart. The final draft that we got where was much closer to the wishes of the Sunnis and the others. So we have here also a second mechanism which has drawn a lot of them to come and participate, which is a chance to modify after this referendum and the chance to have a second referendum.

MILES O'BRIEN: Of course, the real danger would be that the message they walk away from is that there's no mileage in participating because they participated and, to their view, their voice was not heard.

SUMAIDA'IE: Well, that democracy. They participated, their voice has been respected, but there are other people in Iraq who have views and it's a balance between the views of the people. And, generally, I don't believe that the views are mutually exclusive or completely (INAUDIBLE) considerable. They are not. There are specific area of concern that people are still working on. And in this final draft, there is provision for bringing these views closer later on.

MILES O'BRIEN: Well, let's hope the Sunnis continue to participate. A question for you about the document itself.

SUMAIDA'IE: Yes.

MILES O'BRIEN: I read the document. I don't see a lot of democracy in there. What I see are the underpinnings of a theocracy based on Islam with Sharia, which would mean that women would not have anywhere near equal standings in Iraq. Far from a Jeffersonian democracy. What do you see?

SUMAIDA'IE: I think that's a misreading, frankly. We I took part in the drafting of the earlier temporary constitution. The transition (INAUDIBLE) of law. And most of the elements of that are embedded in here. There is a huge section on rights and on the provisions to protect the individuals citizen. There is a prominent position for the Islamic religion, but it is by no means an exclusive position. It's nowhere . . .

MILES O'BRIEN: It's not to prominent? You're a secular politician.

SUMAIDA'IE: I am a secular politician and I believe that . . .

MILES O'BRIEN: And it's just it's very much embedded in religion and religious leaders.

SUMAIDA'IE: This is true but the (INAUDIBLE) religious leaders. But, at the same time, there is a clear statement in the constitution that the principles of democracy must not be contravened, nor law (ph) should be promulgated that contravenes the fundamentals of Islam. You have to underline the fundamentals of Islam because Islam is interpreted in so many different ways. And we are not saying here that any particular interpretation has to be adhered to, but there are certain fundamental precepts that we should not go against. However, the principles of democracy should always be respected also. So this is a balance between all the different requirements that Iraq has at the moment.

MILES O'BRIEN: Samir Sumaida'ie is the Iraqi ambassador to the United Nations.

Thank you very much for your time.

SUMAIDA'IE: Thank you.

MILES O'BRIEN: Soledad.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: Still to come this morning, Washington's waiting game. Will the president's top advisor be indicted in the CIA leak case?

Also, a look at Tropical Storm Wilma. Believe it or not, this storm is already causing oil prices to surge over fears it could target the Gulf Coast. We're "Minding Your Business" ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: Lots of troubles facing the White House and the administration these days. You've got that stalled Harriet Miers nomination. You've got that special prosecutor interviewing Karl Rove for a fourth time. Also, of course, despite the successful elections apparently, you still have violence in Iraq. And, of course, people still thinking about Hurricane Katrina. What's this all going to mean for Republicans now in and '06? Ron Brownstein's a columnist for the "L.A. Times," CNN political analyst too. He's in Washington.

Nice to see you, Ron, as always.

RON BROWNSTEIN, "L.A. TIMES" COLUMNIST: Good morning, Soledad.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: Well, let's get right to it. Lots of bad news. But do you think that all of this news taken together could sink the midterm elections for Republicans?

BROWNSTEIN: Absolutely. If you look at where they are right now, if they can't improve their situation over the next year, history would suggest they are in line for losses. Whether they are losses enough to cost them control of either chamber is another question.

But if you think about the political strategy the White House has had from the beginning, it really gives you a sense of why they're in so much trouble now. They've depended very much, Soledad, on mobilizing and turning out their base. It was a key to their gain in 2002 and in 2004.

Right now they're in a situation where their support has eroded in the middle dangerously because of all the things that you've mentioned. They have a disapproval rating among independents for the president above 60 percent, higher than Bill Clinton ever reached, and yet right now, because of Harriet Miers, they're in a big fight, probably the biggest fight they've had, with their conservative base.

So on the one hand, they've lost ground in the middle. On the other hand, they have a conflict with what has been the engine of their success, a highly mobilizing committed conservative base.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: So now sort of the worst time ever to be alienating the conservative electorate, especially with this Harriet Miers issue. Let me ask you about this. It sort of feels like Harriet Miers version 2.0. Talking about religion the other day. Well, that's not working, let's now talk about selling her on her credentials. Do you think this is going to work?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, I don't know if it's going to work but it's certainly a better strategy. I mean they got even from allies and those who were supporting, the idea that after conservatives and the White House and others went so hard against Democrats for raising questions about whether John Roberts' religious faith would affect the way he made decisions on the court, but then turning around and tout Harriet Miers religion as a selling point was simply, even in the context of Washington, too much inconsistency too fast. And now they have to try to make the case, does she has sufficient credentials. I don't know if they can make that case, but it's certainly better ground on which to fight.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: Rush Limbaugh has an article that he's written in "The Wall Street Journal." He says this. "The Miers nomination shows the strength of the conservative movement. This is no crackup. It's not," as we've been talking about problems, it's really "a crackdown." We conservatives are unified in our objectives. And we are organized to advance them."

He's basically saying all this bickering among conservatives, it's not a bad thing. It's a good thing. It shows how tough and strong we are.

BROWNSTEIN: Well, it certainly shows how tough the conservative movement is. What was really interesting to me about reading that paragraph in particular, and I'm glad you cited that one, is, you know, the implicit sentiment in the word crackdown is that President Bush is the one who has to be cracked down upon. In the way that Rush Limbaugh is phrasing it in that article, he's sort of putting President Bush outside of the conservative movement and basically say it's the conservative movement's job to bring him back, to heal.

This is a president who by and large through his first term rarely was at odds with them, pursued very many policy initiatives both at home and abroad that were very attractive to conservatives, even at the prize of polarizing the electorate and alienating Democrats. And I think the Limbaugh article underscores the extent to which he has now gotten cross-wise with him, not only on Harriet Miers, but on spending and other issues. And he is in a difficult position where he has to repair his standing both with his base and with the middle at the same time. That's not easy to do. SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: Let's talk about the Democrats. We really haven't really heard from them at all.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes. Well, they are some of them are on milk cartons, I guess.

Look, the basic dispute of the Democrat Party is, to what extent do they need to be putting out an alternative agenda at this point in the cycle. Certainly the principle duty of an opposition party is to oppose. That's what republicans did in '93 and '94 when Democrats held all the elements of government. But eventually Republicans came around later in the cycle, the election cycle, and had their contract with America. And I think you're seeing more pressure and more anxiety among certain Democrats saying, look, even though the Republicans have weak numbers right now, ours aren't much better. We've got to begin to give the public more of a sense of where we would take them. Against that, you have other Democrat strategists saying, the Republicans are causing themselves plenty of trouble. Let's stay off stage. If they continue to weaken, we'll have plenty of time to come forward with a positive agenda in 2006.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: There are some Democrats who are trying to spin the culture of corruption, leverage sort of what's happening in the news at all levels, especially when you're talking about Karl Rove and Tom DeLay. Do you think that's going to work? Has legs?

BROWNSTEIN: There is nothing new in politics. You know, this is the argument that many politicians used in the late '80s and early '90s against the Democratic control of Congress, which, at that point had, you know, gone on for decades. And, yes, I think there is a risk to Republicans, not so much in the culture of corruption per say, but in a broader message that says Republicans have been focusing on their own interests and all of these kind of scandals point to that in the argument, while ignoring the problems that people are concerned about like healthcare and energy prices.

So, yes, I mean, if you kind of look at this from all angles, Republicans have a lot of work to do to solidify their position in the next year. But again, to me the key question is, is this discontent enough to cause them to lose seats in places where they have been strongest. Democrats have to win not only in places like Rhode Island and Pennsylvania, blue states, to win back the Senate, they've got to break through in places like Missouri, Montana, Tennessee, Ohio. The same thing in the House. That's tougher, but it's not out of reach given the trends, unless Republicans can turn them around.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: Big obstacles. At the same time, a lot's going to happen. I mean, certainly 10 days away from hearings from the special prosecutor, probably.

BROWNSTEIN: A big event.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: We'll see what that has to say.

BROWNSTEIN: A big event.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: Exactly.

Ron Brownstein for us this morning, "L.A. Times" columnist and our political analyst.

Thank you.

BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: Miles.

MILES O'BRIEN: Thanks, Soledad. In China, a hero's welcome for the Taikonauts. That's the Chinese equivalent of astronaut. The two taikonauts getting a parade through China's space center in Beijing after about 115 hours orbiting the earth. The taikonauts were helped out of their capsule after landing by parachute in Inner Mongolia yesterday afternoon. Chinese space agency scientists got right to work in examining that capsule. It was China's second manned space mission. They say they're going to do an orbiting space station and head to the moon. Maybe there's a space race underway again.

Still to come, oil prices already up this morning just on the chance that tropical storm, this one named Wilma, could head into the Gulf. We're "Minding Your Business" next on AMERICAN MORNING. Andy's with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MILES O'BRIEN: All right. We got another tropical storm. Her name is Wilma. And she may make you want to have a Flintstone mobile. Hence, she is well-named.

ANDY SERWER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes.

MILES O'BRIEN: Andy Serwer is here to explain that one.

SERWER: No, I can't explain what you just said. Indeed, Wilma, Fred Flintstone's wife. Wilma Rudolph, also.

Oil prices on the rise this morning, Miles, because of Tropical Storm Wilma. Up $1.50 to 64 and change. You can see here we go again. And this is exactly what the oil industry does not need, of course, after Katrina and Rita.

Now, listen to this, 67 percent of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico still offline because of those two storms. And 10 percent of refining production, that's converting oil into gasoline, is still not working because of those two storms. Because, you know, and this is exactly what we don't need. We don't know where Wilma's headed but there's fears that it's headed towards this Gulf region, which is making the price of oil go up.

So want to talk about the markets last week. Despite a strong day on Friday, stocks sank last week. You can see the Dow was actually down about four points but on a percentage basis we say that's unchanged because it barely moved at all. And futures are off this morning because of Tropical Storm Wilma sending oil prices up.

MILES O'BRIEN: Ergo ...

SERWER: Ergo ...

MILES O'BRIEN: I was paying attention. I really was.

SERWER: (INAUDIBLE). Yes, I could tell.

MILES O'BRIEN: Thank you. SERWER: A Flintstone mobile?

MILES O'BRIEN: Well, you know, you use your feet.

SERWER: I see. Oh, OK. All right.

MILES O'BRIEN: And you don't need a lot of oil for a Flintstone mobile.

SERWER: Oh, OK. I got it now.

MILES O'BRIEN: I'm sorry that I . . .

SERWER: No, that's OK.

MILES O'BRIEN: Had to take you around that turn.

SERWER: I got it.

MILES O'BRIEN: All right. See you in a bit.

SERWER: OK.

MILES O'BRIEN: Appreciate that.

I try.

SERWER: Yes, you do.

MILES O'BRIEN: In a moment, today's top stories, including more on Wilma. The 21st named storm in the hurricane season. That ties the record back in 1933. And we are tracking Wilma's path. We'll have an update for you ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN: A developing story this hour. As the record hurricane season reaches the end of the alphabet, Wilma forms in the Caribbean. She could threaten the U.S. Gulf Coast. We've got a forecast ahead.

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