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American Morning

Iran Nuclear Threat?; Stressed Out Iraq

Aired February 02, 2006 - 08:32   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Some tough talk from Iran. They are calling the rest of the world bullies essentially, and continued their stated desire to build an atomic energy program. Is it for peaceful means, or are there other motives that lie behind it? There's a lot of reason to believe and many people in the West believe that the country is on its way and would like to pursue atomic weapons. And that has led to all kinds of dealings with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. Security Council, which of course takes us right squarely into Richard Roth's area of expertise.
Richard, good to have you with us this morning.

As this makes its way toward the Security Council, the bluster increases from Iran, and the concern I guess in the West is that, as it's escalated and the possible of sanctions linger out there, that Iran will cease cooperating entirely. That's the rub, isn't it?

RICHARD ROTH, CNN SR. U.N. CORRESPONDENT: Well, it's certainly making the case for the U.S., Britain, France and Germany, which have been rather united, compared to Iraq, on the Iranian question, as their bluster, and actions and failure to cooperate continue down the road, they're going to face sanctions and maybe a tougher line as we go.

M. O'BRIEN: Well, but it seems to me already Iran is indicating it's not cooperating. They shut off those cameras recently.

ROTH: And they unwrapped some seals at (INAUDIBLE) plant.

M. O'BRIEN: So what's happening now apparently is not working from the West perspective, right?

ROTH: That's correct. And now you have the group called the IAEA, which sounds like some out of control PTA meeting, but that International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna. They're meeting right now. We could be very close to getting this matter reported to the Security Council. But it still will take a month according to a deal worked out with the Chinese and Russians, who don't like sanctions, for the Security Council itself to really be gripped by this matter. There's still time they're leaving for diplomacy.

Remember the cartoon? It's like I dare to you step over this line and this one? This is where we seem to be going.

M. O'BRIEN: Yes. Everybody's right up to this line in this case, and so this report will come out, it will be referred to the Security Council, but that month is key. Do you think in that month's time there is some sort of silver bullet solution to this to come up with a way? One of the ideas we keep hearing about is perhaps the Russians doing the enriching of the uranium, which would take that technology which would lead to a bomb out of the hands of Iran?

ROTH: I can see some sort of deal that will hold for a few months, and then we could right back to where we are.

M. O'BRIEN: So in other words, it's unstoppable. Does it seem that way?

ROTH: It seems that Iran wants a confrontation, at least a political confrontation, a nuclear confrontation. It just seems that way, and the U.S. is insistent on getting tough with Iran. President Bush says it can't have a nuclear device. Iran says it's strictly for peaceful purposes; it's nuclear research.

M. O'BRIEN: Yes, let's put ourselves in Iran's shoes for a moment. Surrounded by nuclear powers there, India and Pakistan, Israel, as a country, you could you see why they might be motivated to do this.

ROTH: Yes, and there's been protests from many Middle East countries, why can Israel have a bomb and why are they not allowed to? I mean, Iran has signed agreements where it opens itself up for inspections, things like that. It's just that there's a track record now that they hid a lot of their research and uranium conversion, which they say is for peaceful purposes.

M. O'BRIEN: now the big concern is as it makes its way toward the Security Council, and let's say there is a vote for sanctions ultimately, that might very well harden the position and send things down a really irrevocable course. What do you think?

ROTH: There could be travel bans, asset freezes, a trade embargo. But I mean, Iran is a very important oil producer, and China and Russia have extensive business ties there. To get to that point, things would really have to be boiling over.

M. O'BRIEN: Very complicated situation.

Richard Roth, always explaining it to us well. Thank you -- Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: Well, Iraq is one of the most dangerous places on Earth right now. For people living there, fear, war and general chaos are creating a crisis in psychiatric care.

CNN's Michael Holmes has this story for us this morning from Baghdad.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The waiting room at Dr. Al Harith Abdul Hamid's psychiatry practice is never ending these days. Young and old, they come, stressed out, depressed, desperately unhappy with their lives in the new Iraq.

DR. AL HARITH ABDUL HAMID, BAGHDAD PSYCHIATRIST: They have a sort of hope that things are going to be better. Unfortunately, over the last three years, since the changes, things went bad, and it's getting more and more bad.

HOLMES: Dr. Hamid says security is key to good mental health. It's a commodity in short supply, however, in Baghdad.

HAMID: The main thing, they feel that they are not secure in their houses, not secure while they're walking in the streets. They're not secure even in their work.

HOLMES: A view reflected on the streets.

DR. ASHRAF RAHIM, BAGHDAD DOCTOR (through translator): it's constant fear from the unknown, because when you wake up in the morning, you don't know what will happen or what you're going to face.

FALAH DHABIT, HEALTH MINISTRY EMPLOYEE (through translator): There have been many psychological changes. The gasoline, the power crisis, they affect the psychology of people in particular.

HOLMES: Back at Dr. Hamid's office an elderly patient is checked out.

"Your blood pressure is too high with your anxiety," says the doctor. "Keep taking your medicine."

HOLMES: In the corridor waiting his turn, a depressed 25-year- old, Haider Abed Ali.

HAIDER ABED ALI, SUFFERS FROM DEPRESSION (through translator): My psychological state is very bad. I'm very tense because of the current situation.

HOLMES: According to Dr. Hamid, his diagnosis of post-traumatic stress disorder is at an all-time high. Even in a place that's meant to be an escape from the pressures, the electricity flickers. He writes many prescriptions for medication, but disturbingly, sees illegal drugs being sought out as a refuge from the violence.

HAMID: Starting from the beginning of 2004, we started to see patients suffering from addiction, from independence on hashish, morphine, things like that.

HOLMES: Dr. Hamid see as many patients as time allows. He's booked solid for the next month and hasn't even started looking at the month after. Sadly, he says, business is booming.

Michael Holmes, CNN, Baghdad.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

S. O'BRIEN: Psychological problems really on all fronts. Tough.

(WEATHER REPORT)

S. O'BRIEN: Looking at live pictures from the National Prayer Breakfast. This is the annual prayer breakfast that follows the State of the Union Address, and it's taking place in Washington D.C. And as you can see that's Bono, wearing his sunglasses, as always. He's at the mic. We're expecting to see President Bush attend the prayer breakfast as well this morning. We're going to monitor this for you and bring you any interesting developments out of it later this morning.

(MARKET REPORT)

M. O'BRIEN: Coming up, you ever get a hunch you just couldn't ignore? Well, there's good reason to trust your gut. The science of intuition is next.

And later, eBay gets sued, accused of selling phony stuff from Tiffany and Company. How can you make sure you don't get ripped off and buy a fake?

Daniel Romano is back. She's back in the house, on the morning program she belongs on, I might add, AMERICAN MORNING. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

M. O'BRIEN: Last week, remember this story we told you about. That little girl in a convenience store in Alabama, 3-year-old girl. You see her in the right portion of your screen. She's underneath a -- well, you can't see her face there, but in any case, we met a woman who was in that convenience store -- there you see, mid-right, under the blot -- who saw that little girl in the store, didn't like the way things looked. Didn't like the way she interacted with the adult she was with, and had a hunch. She had a hunch something was wrong. Took her four days to follow up that hunch, but eventually, those adults were arrested and charged with mild molestation. Made us think about hunches.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

PETER FALK, ACTOR: Oh, listen, just one more thing.

M. O'BRIEN (voice-over): Remember Columbo?

FALK: At least I've convinced my superiors that Jennifer Wells' murder was not a suicide.

M. O'BRIEN: Peter Falk always had a hunch and quick as he could wheel around and scratch his head, he had his quarry. Come on, that's just Hollywood, right? Not so, says the real thing.

Retired New York homicide detective Vernon Geberth remembers a real case that seemed like a suicide.

VERNON GEBERTH, FMR. NYPD HOMICIDE CMDR: The whole scene was set up perfectly. The body in the tub, the empty vial of pills. And everyone bought into it. M. O'BRIEN: But his sixth sense told him something wasn't right.

GEBERTH: And I told the sergeant to clear the room. I bent down. I folded the woman's eyelids back and saw a fatigial (ph) hemorrhage. Fatigial hemorrhage is presumptive evidence of a throttling or strangulation.

M. O'BRIEN: Case closed. Geberth collared the husband, just one of 8,000 homicide cases he's worked where in many cases his gut was more important than his shoe leather.

(on camera): So how would you define a hunch, then? Is it instinct or is it learned or is it a combination?

GEBERTH: Well, the technology of intuition is based on instinct. Then we enhance it with learned experiences. As a murder cop, when I walk into a room, I promise you that I'm going to follow my instinct, because many times my brain is working faster subconsciously than I in the conscious world.

M. O'BRIEN (voice-over): Scientists have confirmed this. A hunch is what happens when our conscious, rational and subconscious reflexive side of our brains converge. Judgment, meet instinct.

It's what happened when the Ted Kaczynski's brother read the Unabomber Manifesto in 1995. It's what helped a pair of cops in New York reunite a man and his stolen Corvette after 37 years.

And it's what happened to Tracie Lee Dean when she saw a sad little girl alone in an Alabama convenience store two weeks ago. After four days of persistent calling, she got police to arrest the couple who allegedly molested her.

(on camera): So what's the advice to people? If you see something out there, what should do you?

GEBERTH: Well, my advice is that fear is good. If your body is telling you watch out, pay attention. That's how those animals stay alive out there in the woods. You don't see a deer hanging around, do you?

(END VIDEOTAPE)

M. O'BRIEN: Anthropologist Helen Fisher does a lot of research on this subject. She's at Rutgers University. She joins us. Helen, good to have you with us.

HELEN FISHER, RUTGERS UNIVERSITY: Thank you.

M. O'BRIEN: Is there really a scientific basis to all of this?

FISHER: Yes, there's actually a lot of scientific explanations. First of all, you know that gut feeling, it's called body loops. I mean, the decision-making parts of the brain are very well-connected to the stomach and to the heart and to the lungs and to the skin. And the body is constantly chiming in with its feelings and they guide your rational behavior and contribute to what your thoughts are.

M. O'BRIEN: It can actually create a physical response, then, can't it?

FISHER: Absolutely, we constantly have that. But there's also more to intuition. I mean, they asked about the experience part. And we now know that what intuition is -- and what it is is as you're studying any kind of system -- a murder crime, a football, the stock market -- you begin to see patterns and relationships and quirks in the system and then you store all that knowledge.

It's called chunking. You store all that knowledge into a large, complex design. And then when you see a tiny little aspect of that huge complex design, your brain instantly brings up the entire pattern. And you don't have to go through that plodding step-by-step thought.

M. O'BRIEN: Isn't that interesting? So really, and that happens, can happen, really subconsciously. In other words, you're accessing a lot more information than you're aware of.

FISHER: Absolutely. And that's exactly -- you know, the policeman, when he looked into the eye of the dead woman, he saw a tiny little part of a huge design which spelled murder to him. So it's not so supernatural.

M. O'BRIEN: Now, how is it -- Soledad is insisting, I think you've done some research where you feel that women are more intuitive than men. Why is that?

FISHER: You know, they've thought that for the last 25,000 years -- I mean 2,500 years. I mean, the ancient Greeks thought it. But -- and it's true.

M. O'BRIEN: Do you believe it to be true?

FISHER: Well, it's not a belief, it's a fact. The reason it's a fact is that women are on average -- around the world, we've got data from over ten countries -- better at reading the emotions in your face. They're better at reading posture, gesture, tone of voice. And they start as very small children. An infant girl will respond more to a human face than an infant boy. And all through their lives, they are better at picking up all these clues. And 90 percent of human emotional expression is non-verbal.

M. O'BRIEN: Is that because women are more observant? Because there are a lot of observant men. I mean, that homicide detective is as good as you get. He's as intuitive as any human being would be, right?

FISHER: Women have been built to read the signs of small children. I mean for millions of years, women had the hardest task on earth, which is trying to figure out what these tiny little non-verbal babies are trying to say to you. And so they have all these tools, these non-verbal tools. And it's associated with estrogen. I mean, the more estrogen a woman has, the more likely she's going to be able to read all of these clues.

M. O'BRIEN: Here's the trick, though. As we progress -- and I put that in quotations -- as we progress, we become less dialed in, less tuned in, to the instinctual side of us, the intuitive side. And that can be bad, can't it?

FISHER: I think it can. In fact, I've always thought that the more we developed human language, the more we've depended on the system of language and not listened to our gut feelings and to what we read in our faces and you know -- and women don't depend as much on language as men do. In fact, the female brain is better connected. The sides are better connected. So they collect a lot more pieces of data from different types of modalities. And so they will assemble it in a more complex pattern and see these relationships.

M. O'BRIEN: So the advice would be, if you have a hunch, follow it?

FISHER: It's hard to know because sometimes we spook ourselves, but I try to.

M. O'BRIEN: All right. Helen Fisher, thank you very much. Very interesting.

FISHER: Thank you.

M. O'BRIEN: Soledad, you were right.

S. O'BRIEN: And Dr. Fisher, my thanks to you for proving me right with all of the scientific stuff backing me up. Appreciate that. What I already knew.

Ahead this morning, maybe you should trust your gut next time you go on eBay. The Web site's accused of selling fake stuff from Tiffany's. In some cases, you know, Tiffany bracelets for 20 bucks. Come on now! We're going to tell you how you can tell the phony from the real deal, ahead on AMERICAN MORNING. We're back in a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

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