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American Morning

Death Sentence Handed to Saddam Hussein Gives President Bush Chance to Show Some Success in Iraq; Rumsfeld Under Fire; Push to the Polls

Aired November 06, 2006 - 08:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. Welcome back, everybody, Monday, November 6th.
I'm Soledad O'Brien.

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: And I'm Miles O'Brien.

Thanks for being with us.

We begin with Election Day and final day of campaigning in 2006. The war in Iraq dominates this campaign. And today the death sentence handed to Saddam Hussein is giving President Bush a chance to show some success in Iraq.

Our White House correspondent, Suzanne Malveaux, is in the president's voting district of Crawford, Texas.

Hello, Suzanne.

SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Miles.

Well, as you know, the Iraq war really is the number one issue for voters. And this election is widely seen as a referendum on the president and the Iraq war. So the death sentence of Saddam Hussein may be a political lifeline for President Bush.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Saddam Hussein's trial is a milestone in the Iraqi people's effort to replace the rule of a tyrant with the rule of law.

MALVEAUX (voice over): For President Bush, Saddam's faith is intricately linked to his own. The Iraqi leader's death sentence provides a much needed symbol of Iraqi progress.

BUSH: It's a major achievement for Iraq's young democracy and its constitutional government.

MALVEAUX: Saddam's likely execution provides Mr. Bush with yet another line on the campaign trail to cast Republicans as strong on national security and to defend his Iraq war.

BUSH: America congratulates the Iraqi people and we give our thanks to the men and women of America's armed forces who have...

(APPLAUSE)

MALVEAUX: But it is uncertain whether Saddam's demise will impact the midterm elections.

REP. PETER HOEKSTRA (R), MICHIGAN: This is now one more step in building a safe and a more secure Iraq.

MALVEAUX: While Republican candidates praised the verdict, Democrats, determined to focus on the Bush administration's failures, downplayed the death sentence.

SEN. BARBARA BOXER (D), CALIFORNIA: So, yes, he got what he deserved, but we have a long way to go.

MALVEAUX: Administration officials bristled at the suggestion the verdict was conveniently timed for maximum political advantage.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MALVEAUX: And Miles, of course it's all about who has the momentum and the mojo to get to the finish line. President Bush going to be appearing in areas, really red areas, places where he's before a friendly audience, trying to convince them to go out to the polls tomorrow -- Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: Well, let's talk about that. What red areas is he visiting today?

MALVEAUX: Pensacola, Florida, very interesting. This is, of course -- Florida is where his brother Jeb Bush is stepping down as governor. And we expect about 10,000 people at this rally in Pensacola.

The only person who is not going to be there is Charles Crist. That is the one that he is campaigning for, the Republican.

Crist's campaign says, look, this is not a diss to the president. He's going to be in other areas to try to attract Independent voters, moderate voters. President Bush will do better with this crowd.

So it will be very interesting to see how that rally actually works out without the candidate. And then the president goes on to Arkansas. A very interesting race over the governorship there. And then on to Texas. That, of course, his home state, where tomorrow he'll be voting -- Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: So, what, Mr. Crist getting his tires rotated or something? I mean, what's the other deal?

MALVEAUX: He's campaigning in other areas in Florida where he believes he's better able to spend his time winning those voters over. He says he feels confident that he's got those voters in Pensacola. Quite frankly, President Bush not so popular in those other areas that he's visiting. M. O'BRIEN: Yes. I think we all have an arched eyebrow on that one.

Suzanne Malveaux in Crawford.

Thank you very much -- Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: Donald Rumsfeld must go. That message very clear in an editorial of "The Military Times" newspapers. It's an independent paper owned by Gannett but widely read by members of the armed forces.

CNN's Barbara Starr with more on this live at the Pentagon.

Good morning, Barbara.

BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Good morning to you, Soledad.

Indeed, this newspaper chain is very influential with its military leadership, and they are calling in a new editorial for Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to step down. Now, the editors say it has nothing to do with the upcoming elections, but they have timed this step because of President Bush's recent announcement that he wants Don Rumsfeld to stay another two years, to the end of his term.

Let's look at a little bit of what this editorial had to say.

Quoting it, "Rumsfeld has lost credibility with the uniformed leadership, with the troops, with Congress, and with the public at large. His strategy has failed and his ability to lead is compromised. And although the blame for our failures in Iraq rests with the secretary, it will be the troops who bear the brunt."

Now, the editor of that newspaper, Robert Hodierne, spoke to AMERICAN MORNING a short while ago.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ROBERT HODIERNE, SR. MANAGING EDITOR, "ARMY TIMES": It was pretty clear to us that the policies need some realignment, and that's unlikely to happen as long as Secretary Rumsfeld occupies that position.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

STARR: The crux of this editorial, Soledad, is that this newspaper believes that senior commanders in the field no longer support Secretary Rumsfeld. And they say that's why they believe he needs to step down.

S. O'BRIEN: So, then, what does the Pentagon say about all that?

STARR: Right. Well, as you can well expect, the Pentagon, the minute this editorial surfaced over the weekend, fired back with a very different response. Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman saying, "The new 'chorus of criticism, noted by the editorials is actually old news and does not include commanders in the field."

So, the editorial dispute, if you will, seems to be, are there commanders in the field who no longer support the war, who are questioning Defense Secretary Rumsfeld's leadership? And, of course, they may not speak out publicly while they still remain on active duty and in uniform. So, a lot of this criticism is hard to pin down because it's not going to erupt in public.

Let's add one more detail, Soledad. It is November 6th today, and so far this month 18 U.S. troops have lost their lives in Iraq -- Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: It is such a tragedy.

All right. Barbara Starr for us at the Pentagon.

Thank you, Barbara.

STARR: Sure.

S. O'BRIEN: We also should update you on the poll of polls that was released within the last week. It shows the Democrats with the edge over Republicans in the battle for control of Congress.

Among likely voters, an average of 53 percent say they'd choose a Democrat, 41 percent say they'd choose a Republican. Now both parties are aggressively, of course, trying to get their voters out to the polls.

Let's get right to CNN's Dana Bash. She's live at Democratic candidate Jim Webb's headquarters in Arlington, Virginia, this morning.

Dana, good morning.

DANA BASH, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Soledad.

And polls here in Virginia open in just under 22 hours. And if you look around here, right now this room is empty, but volunteers are starting to stream in. And as you can tell from looking around, this has been a place where people have been hard at work, because for months Democrats and Republicans have been figuring out who exactly their voters are.

Right now, the name of the game is making sure they get to the polls. And especially, that is a challenge for Democrats, because although they feel like they have the momentum on their side, they also have a very well-organized Republican opposition.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm calling to ask you to join me in re- electing George Allen.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: ... George Allen to the Senate. UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: ... to re-elect George Allen.

BASH (voice over): Voices of a voter turnout operation Republicans hope keeps them in power.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: All right. We're ready to go? Let's get started.

BASH: GOP foot soldiers are marching battlegrounds across the country, implementing their 72-hour get-out-the-vote plan.

MICHAEL DUHAIME, RNC: The 72-hour program really takes about 72 weeks to put together, so there's no doubt it can make a difference in these close elections.

BASH: Since 2000, Republicans have been building a voter vault, files of GOP voters. Adding to that by microtargeting, using consumer data, what magazines or cars someone buys, to identify new voters.

DUHAIME: We feel with our targeting we're able to go in and find very specific voters in there as individuals and turn them out. And maybe instead of getting 10 or 12 percent, we get 14 or 16 percent.

BASH: That could make the difference where it's neck and neck, like this Indiana district.

BRIAN DIFFELL, GOP VOLUNTEER: We target these households based on folks we think may be friendly toward the reception we get at those houses.

BASH: GOP volunteers knock on doors in Democratic neighborhoods Republicans wrote off in the past. What's different this year is Democrats are doing the same thing here...

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We're volunteers of the local Democratic Party.

BASH: ... using the same strategy and technology to find Democratic voters, investing $8 million in turnout but playing catch- up.

KAREN FINNEY, DNC: We had some challenges in 2004 with our database. We've addressed those challenges and we feel very confident in our -- in our voter file.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Please vote for Democrat Jim Webb for U.S. Senate.

BASH: Back in Virginia, Democrats use bar codes just like Republicans to track voters. Who needs an extra push? Maybe a ride to the polls?

LARRY BYRNE, DEMOCRATIC FIELD ORGANIZER: In the old days when we used to have to do this, you know, one at a time, we would have never gotten to 100,000 contacts. And we got to 300,000.

BASH: But all the money and fancy microtargeting in the world can't replace moments like this.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Allen's an idiot. Webb is worse. You could convince me to vote for George Allen if you help me start my lawnmower.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: All right. I will start your lawnmower.

All the way up. There we go. One vote for George Allen.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BASH: Now there perhaps a vote for George Allen just because a lawnmower started, but back here at Jim Webb's headquarters, the Democrat running against Allen, just in a few minutes probably we're going to see volunteers streaming in here.

They're going to be using these sheets. Again, these bar codes, plugging it into the computers like this, trying to get the information about voters that they've been contacting for months to make sure that they go to the polls. And what they're going to do is put these kind of things, just these basic door hangers, on voters' doors with information about exactly where to vote, because if they don't know that they can't get to the polls -- Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: If they don't know that by now, maybe they're not exactly the most informed voter either.

Dana Bash for us this morning.

BASH: You never know.

S. O'BRIEN: Thank you, Dana. Yes, you never know.

Stay with us tonight as the best political team on TV, Wolf, Anderson, Larry, Paula, Lou, and more take a look at how your vote could affect the war in Iraq and who controls Congress. Our election special begins tonight at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

Happening this morning, the former Nicaraguan leader Daniel Ortega appears headed for a comeback this morning. Early election results have Ortega leading Nicaragua's presidential election. It's his third attempt at a comeback since a U.S.-backed rebellion ousted him from power back in 1990.

The U.S. government is already warning economic sanctions will be imposed if Ortega returns.

A 16-year-old Palestinian girl is dead this morning after an Israeli missile strike in northern Gaza. Four other people were wounded. This according to Palestinian sources. Witnesses say the missile was fired near a school bus. An Israeli military spokesman says the strike was targeting Palestinians who were there to get rocket launchers used to fire at Israel.

In Mexico, the search is on for whoever set off three explosions overnight in Mexico City. Small bombs went off at Mexico's top electoral court, the headquarters in an opposition party, and a bank. No injuries. Media outlets in Mexico say the bombs were detonated by a group trying to destabilize the government before the 1st of December. That's the day that Mexico's new president, Felipe Calderon, is sworn in -- Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: Coming up, the White House facing some friendly fire. Some of the people who beat the war drums for the Iraq invasion now offering a harsh critique of the way the war is being waged.

And why in the world don't more school buses have seatbelts? We'll look at an eye-opening new study ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

S. O'BRIEN: Some of the top stories we're following for you this morning.

The Vatican joining many Muslim leaders in criticizing the decision to execute Saddam Hussein. The Vatican says the ruling hearkens back to the days of eye-for-an-eye justice.

An editorial in "The Military Times" newspapers says Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld should be fired. The White House says it's standing by Rumsfeld. "The Times" is written for the military but privately owned.

Fourteen minutes past the hour. If you're heading out the door, let's get a quick check of the traveler's forecast for you.

Good morning, Chad.

CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Good morning, Soledad.

(WEATHER REPORT)

M. O'BRIEN: Disgraced Reverend Ted Haggard is calling himself a liar and a deceiver. In a letter read to his Colorado congregation on Sunday, Haggard admitted to a sexual problem. This, after being accused of a three-year gay affair that included drug use.

A new HBO documentary profiles Haggard. Given his admission, his words take on a new meaning.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REV. TED HAGGARD, NEW LIFE CHURCH: You know, all the surveys say that evangelicals have the best sex life of any other group.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Oh, come on.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: No way! There's a lot of love in this place.

HAGGARD: There's a lot of love in this place. And you don't think these babies just come out of nowhere, do you?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HAGGARD: We are the ones with the role to say there is a moral (INAUDIBLE) and we need to rise up to it. And that's also why secular people are so concerned when the church doesn't fulfill its own moral stand, like if a pastor falls into corruption or becomes dishonest or greedy. It's heartbreaking, because even secular people want godly people to be authentically godly.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

M. O'BRIEN: And that documentary will air in January on HBO.

Haggard was also the head of the powerful National Association of Evangelicals, which represents 30 million conservative Christians in America. Haggard has now stepped down from that post.

Leith Anderson is the interim president of the organization. He joins us from Minneapolis.

Reverend Anderson, good to have you with us.

LEITH ANDERSON, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF EVANGELICALS: Thank you. Good morning, Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: Good morning to you.

The explanation and the apology thus far has been a little vague. Reverend Haggard says this, he's a deceiver, liar, part of life so dark, warring in his entire life, taking responsibility for that.

Does he owe a more complete explanation to his flock?

ANDERSON: Well, I'm a pastor, and I think his primary responsibility is to his family and to his congregation. I'm not sure it's helpful to give complete explanations and details. He needs to work that out with the church and the leadership of the church and do what's appropriate there, rather than what is mandated by the broader community in America.

M. O'BRIEN: But as part of forgiveness, is that part of the road to forgiveness, to become -- to fully disclose?

ANDERSON: Well, I think sometimes we are called upon to forgive people when we don't have full disclosure. It's certainly helpful for the person who has been guilty of doing something to give full disclosure. I think honesty is the way to go and that's what he probably should do, but forgiveness is not always dependent on that. Sometimes we need to forgive people when we don't know all the details.

M. O'BRIEN: Should he reform himself? I don't know how you would define whether he was, in fact, reformed, but should he be allowed to return to preaching? ANDERSON: Well, what I've heard and read is that the leadership of the church and community of which he is a part has said that that's not going to happen. And I think that's probably the best thing. So there's a difference between forgiveness and restoration.

M. O'BRIEN: And -- but that's one particular congregation. What if he wanted to preach to another flock somewhere or start another flock? What would your thoughts be on that?

ANDERSON: Well, with the information that we have now, probably that's not probable nor likely. I wouldn't go there.

M. O'BRIEN: All right. Of course, there's always comebacks in this world, in this country in particular.

When you look at other scandals involving famous preachers, you look at Jimmy Swaggart, who admitted to being with a prostitute, Tammy Faye and Jim Baker, financial improprieties, as well as a sex scandal there, the difference in those cases is the sex allegation was heterosexual sex. In this case it is gay sex is at the core of this scandal.

Does that make a difference, do you think?

ANDERSON: I'm sure it makes a difference to some people, but we're talking about someone who is married and the father of five children and has made a commitment and made vows and has been unfaithful, admittedly unfaithful to his congregation, to his family. So there is a great breach of covenant here that goes beyond the sexuality part.

M. O'BRIEN: But -- so does the scandal rise to a different level in your mind?

ANDERSON: Well, I think it's rising to a different level in Colorado right now because that's on the ballot. It's a ballot initiative.

But I think that we need to be careful that we don't turn this primarily into something that relates to homosexuality. I think it relates to the greater issue of leadership. And what we have here is someone who in leadership has failed the standard that he lifted up for himself. And the reason it's a big news story is because it's so unusual and because it's so exceptional.

M. O'BRIEN: Do evangelicals believe that Ted Haggard was born gay?

ANDERSON: I don't know what evangelicals think because we're talking about a really diverse group here. And certainly there's difference of opinion on that.

M. O'BRIEN: All right.

Leith Anderson, interim president of the National Association of Evangelicals. Thanks for being with us.

ANDERSON: Thank you.

M. O'BRIEN: Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: A quick look at the stories we're following for you this morning.

California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger's re-election bid. It looks like he's going to win, but is he doing it by ditching his Republican roots?

And Oprah's Midas touch as the diet book "You on a Diet" gets her thumbs up. Well take a look at that straight ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

M. O'BRIEN: Oprah Winfrey once again selling books, once again proving she has the Midas touch.

(BUSINESS REPORT)

S. O'BRIEN: Stories we're following for you this morning.

The defense secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, in the hot seat once again. We'll tell you who's calling for him to quit now.

And with just a day until the midterm elections, which party has the edge? We're going to take a look straight ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

S. O'BRIEN: A failing grade for the Iraq war from the people who encouraged it. It's the topic of a new "Vanity Fair" article. Is the article accurate? We're going to talk to one of the people probing (ph) it straight ahead.

M. O'BRIEN: The benefits of blurring party lines. California's Republican governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, racks up some big wins by listening to Democrats?

S. O'BRIEN: And riding the school bus not so safe. A brand new injury study shows that for some little passengers seatbelts might do more harm than good.

Those store stories and much more ahead on this AMERICAN MORNING.

M. O'BRIEN: Good morning to you. It is Monday, November 6th.

I'm Miles O'Brien.

S. O'BRIEN: And I'm Soledad O'Brien.

Thanks for being with us. M. O'BRIEN: Happening this morning, around the world mixed reaction to Saddam Hussein's death sentence. President Bush and Iraq's Shiite prime minister are celebrating the ruling, but others, including the Vatican and some Muslim leaders, say Hussein should not be hanged.

An Iraqi court Sunday found Hussein guilty of ordering mass murders in an Iraqi village in 1982. An appeals court will now decide whether he lives or dies. A ruling could come down in the next several weeks.

And more calls this morning for the resignation of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. An editorial in "The Army Times" says Rumsfeld has lost credibility with uniformed leadership, troops, Congress and the public. The Pentagon calls the claims old news.

S. O'BRIEN: Some leading conservatives who once backed the Iraq war now having second thoughts. Their critiques appeared in "Vanity Fair's" Web site this weekend, and Michael Rubin was one of those quoted in the article. He was a coalition political adviser in Iraq. He's in Philadelphia this morning.

It's nice to see you. Thanks for talking with us.

MICHAEL RUBIN, FMR. IRAQ ADVISER: Thanks for having me.

S. O'BRIEN: I know -- my pleasure -- you've got some issues with the piece. We'll talk about that in just a moment.

But first, you and the other neocons who are quoted in the article supported the push forward for war. What's your position now?

RUBIN: We still support it. The question is over implementation, not the ideas.

I believe there's consensus across the board that it was the right thing to do. We're better off now for having done it, although there's a lot of frustration with how it's gone.

S. O'BRIEN: Really, because that's not my reading of the article at all actually, especially when you look at some of the quotes. For example, Richard Perle is actually widely quoted -- here's what he says: He says President Bush did not make decisions in part because of the machinery government that he nominally ran was actually running him. He has a very strong assessment of both the decision and how it's been handled being a big mistake.

RUBIN: I'm not Richard Perle, so you would have to ask him directly. What I would say is that each of those interviews was based on about two hours -- each interview was about two hours long. I would argue that "Vanity Fair," David Rose, cherrypicked the quotes to give a different conclusion to what people were making. I would challenge "Vanity Fair" right now to release the full transcripts of all the interviews, so that people can judge for themselves what was said rather than having quotes taken out of context, and in the case of my quote -- the headline doesn't correlate with the quote itself. I criticized the White House for being on the verge, for basically going wobbly, for being on the verge of betraying the Iraqi liberals. We can't have a foreign policy, whether it be it Republican or Democrat, where we make promises, cause people to come out of the woodwork and ally with themselves and abandon them when it's convenient for electoral purposes.

S. O"BRIEN: It sounds to me, the article, sounds to be an absolute condemnation of how President Bush has managed the war. Do you agree with the assessment? Do you think, as you point out in the quote that they use about the policy doesn't track with rhetoric, is what you're quoted as saying in the article.

RUBIN: I fully say the main problem with this administration is that there has been a growing gap between the rhetoric of the White House and the reality. My fault with the implementation on Iraq is with the implementation. The "Vanity Fair" article was twisted to make it appear as if everyone was throwing up their hands and giving up. No, rather what we were saying is there are very specific ways to move forward. We were expressing frustration, very specific frustration with certain parts of the implementation, and making suggestions to move forward.

S. O'BRIEN: All right. Why don't you tell me then what specific parts of the implementation do you think have been a failure?

RUBIN: OK, let me put it this way -- one out of six Iraqis fled Iraq under Saddam Hussein. When they settled in the west, there was no cultural impediment to democracy. That suggests the problem isn't so much democracy as rule of law. So, how do you fix the problem of rule of law? First and foremost, you have to deal with the militias. In my case, if you want to constructive suggestion, I'd say we need to embed soldiers with the police, the same way we have with the new Iraqi Army that's had modest success. We're in a Catch-22 with the police where on one hand we say it's not secure enough to embed troops with the police. On the other hand, the reason it's not secure enough is because the police are out of control.

S. O'BRIEN: So, when you look at a strategy like that, which you say would be the right strategy that's not being implemented, who is to blame for that? The article clearly points to Secretary Donald Rumsfeld as not doing what needs to be done to win this war. Do you agree with that?

RUBIN: I'm not a big fan of Secretary Rumsfeld, but the implementers of much of the policy are in the National Security Council -- they're the O'Sullivans, the Satterfields, the Crockers and so forth, and real questions has to be made upon the people who are making the decisions about what decisions they're making, rather than just building these straw-man arguments of blaming the so-called Neocons, most of whom supported the ideas but never had the opportunity to try to implement them.

S. O'BRIEN: So, then are you saying we're winning in Iraq or losing?

RUBIN: Right now we haven't made the decision to win. I spent 22 months in Iraq...

S. O'BRIEN: Does that mean we're losing then if we haven't the decision to win -- are we losing?

RUBIN: No, we haven't lost yet. We're on the fence and it depends whether or not the White House goes wobbly.

S. O'BRIEN: Michael Rubin, the former coalition provisional authority adviser. Thank you for talking with us.

RUBIN: Thank you.

S. O'BRIEN: That article I should mention comes out in full in "Vanity Fair" come January. It's on their website right now -- Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: Election eve and Republicans are in danger of losing the Senate race in Ohio. Incumbent Mike DeWine has been trying to outrun scandal that's plagued the GOP in the state. AMERICAN MORNING'S Bob Franken live from Columbus with more. Good morning, Bob.

BOB FRANKEN: Good morning Miles, and in its simplest form, we can describe the Senate race here this way: the Republicans are trying to play catchup and the Democrats are trying to stop them.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

FRANKEN (voice-over): The last days reflect the styles of each Senate candidate. Democrat Sherrod Brown, the poll-leading challenger, held a loud rally last night here in a Columbus church accompanied by space hero and Ohio native John Glenn.

SHERROD BROWN, DEMOCRATIC SENATE CANDIDATE: John Glenn, thank you. It's an honor to be introduced by you.

FRANKEN: The Republican, incumbent Senator Mike DeWine, was methodically trying to play catchup, fueling up at a pancake breakfast.

SEN. MIKE DEWINE (R), OHIO: Pancakes look good. What's going on?

FRANKEN: DeWine insists his six-to-eight point deficit looks good.

DEWINE: We're closing. We're closing. Polls this morning has six down, but we're moving in the right direction and we are going to close it and win.

FRANKEN: The Democratic challenger describes Republicans as desperate.

BROWN: They're angry and can't stand that they might lose their job and they're saying I want my blanky.

FRANKEN: National Republicans decided to blanket other states with money. They cut off their spending for the Ohio Senate race, but the TV ads are still incessant from both sides.

DEWINE (voice-over): I'm Mike DeWine. I approve this message to keep fighting for all our families.

BROWN (voice-over): I'm Sherrod Brown. I approve this message. It's time to put the middle class first.

FRANKEN: Ohio Democrats have gotten a big boost from the state GOP's corruption problems. Convicted for receiving bribes, just- resigned Congressman Bob Ney is considered an embarrassment by his own party. Outgoing Governor Bob Taft pleaded no contest and was fined $4,000 for failing to report gifts. Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, the man who wants to be governor, is far back in the polls.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

FRANKEN (on-camera): But the polls in some cases are tightening a bit. As a matter of fact, the chances for Ohio Republicans to do better than expected have been upgraded to an upset, but that's upgraded from a miracle -- Miles?

M. O'BRIEN: Upgraded from a miracle. Thank you, Bob Franken in Columbus. So, where are the numbers now? If you're like me, all that confusing poll data can make it difficult to sort through it all. One way to get a sense of where things are is the poll of polls and our senior political correspondent Candy Crowley is here with a look at some of the numbers. Good morning Candy.

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Good morning. Can't have too many polls.

M. O'BRIEN: No, you can't. This is a good one to kind of boil it down.

CROWLEY: Exactly -- give everybody sort of the overview. First of all, remember these two numbers, 15 in the House, 6 in the Senate. If you look at our poll of polls, you pretty much would have to bet Democratic at this point. When you add up all of the polls that we currently have seen in the past week or so, what you have is this huge gap. 53 percent say they will vote Democratic, 41 percent say they will vote Republican. That is a poll of polls that is not good. That is a 12 percent gap. Republicans also say in this poll that they are a lot less likely -- a lot more likely to change their minds between now and tomorrow. So Democrats are much more sure of their vote that even than Republicans are. George Bush in our poll, not in this poll of polls, at 35 percent approval rating, so all the numbers, despite some improvement for Republicans, are just dreadful for them at this point.

M. O'BRIEN: Are those numbers though, the true makings of a rout though?

CROWLEY: The problem is we're looking at the whole and this really is an election about the parts. So you don't really -- you say, oh, my goodness, a 12-point gap between the Republicans and Democrats. Well, the fact is there's a no-point gap say in Missouri, for the Senate race between Talent and McCaskill, so it's difficult to take all those parts and make them into the whole until we see it tomorrow.

M. O'BRIEN: All right, so which races are you going to be most interested in tomorrow.

CROWLEY: Well, you know, the seven -- basically, the Republicans have pretty much given up on the House. So, we're looking at the Senate races -- we love Tennessee simply because this is about both the past and the future of the Democratic Party. We're looking at somebody who could, in Harold Ford, become the first black elected to the Senate in Tennessee from the South. We're also looking at Bob Corker, who is a Republican. This is Bill Frist's seat -- he was the leader, so lots of things going on in that race.

M. O'BRIEN: Ford is not looking good in the latest numbers.

CROWLEY: He's not. I mean, our numbers are that good. Now, the Ford campaign says, oh, our internal polls are much better. I must say, that's what they always say.

M. O'BRIEN: They always say that right? There are the numbers right there.

CROWLEY: Exactly. And this race has changed dramatically over the past couple of weeks. You know, they have the controversial commercial from the Republican side. "Call me." Also Harold Ford went to a parking lot where Corker was giving a news conference. These little things tend to say great big things to voters and it's hard to know which little thing caught their attention. The other one I think is interesting is Rhode Island where we've seen Lincoln Chafee, who didn't even vote for, he's a Republican who didn't even vote for George Bush last time. Wrote in his father's name. Didn't vote for the war. There are Democrats who were more supportive of George Bush than Lincoln Chafee. Then we have a Mason-Dixon poll that shows about one point between Sheldon Whitehouse who is the Democrat...

M. O'BRIEN: By the way, we're showing Steele and Cardin there

CROWLEY: That's a great race too. That's Maryland. Steele and Cardin, that's another one where Republicans look with a little bit of hope. Steele has run an amazing sort of race. He's a black Republican in a very Democratic state and he's made a race out of it with a political pro, Ben Cardin, so, I mean, those are just fun. Those are things where you think, wow, we always go for an upset. We like those. Right now the biggest upset would be if Republicans kept the house. Before we would have said if Democrats take the House, that's the upset, now it's almost the opposite.

M. O'BRIEN: Where are you going to be?

CROWLEY: Here.

M. O'BRIEN: Right here.

CROWLEY: Well, over there.

S. O'BRIEN: It's all here. It counts as here.

M. O'BRIEN: Glad you're here.

CROWLEY: Thanks.

M. O'BRIEN: Our senior political correspondent Candy Crowley, who is part of the best political team on television.

And political junkies can get a free fix from a powerful pipe today, so to speak. CNN.com's Pipeline is free all day today. Follow the candidates on multiple live video screens, check their statements against previous reports and watch the video archives and on-demand news clips if you like. It's all on CNN.com/pipeline.

And stay with us tonight as the best political team on television, that's Wolf Blitzer, Anderson Cooper, Larry King, Paula Zahn and Lou Dobbs and Candy Crowley, maybe not at this desk, but in the room. We'll take a look at how this vote might play out and how the war in Iraq might have some impact on who controls Congress. The special begins 7:00 eastern -- Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: Ahead this morning, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is a favorite to win re-election and that is a change -- so what's behind his big comeback?

And a new study on school bus safety shows thousands of injuries. Would mandatory seatbelts make a difference? We'll take a look -- stay with us.

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S. O"BRIEN: Well, the political season, of course, is never complete without the story of a great political comeback. This year it looks like it will be California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. How did he do it? Let's take a look.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

S. O'BRIEN: The governator's political career is filled with some memorable missteps. Like this backroom conversation recently caught on audio-tape:

GOV. ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER (R), CALIFORNIA (voice-over): Puerto Rican or the same thing with Cuban, I mean they are all very hot."

S. O'BRIEN: And remember this?

SCHWARZENGGER: If they don't have the guts, I call them girly men.

S. O'BRIEN: A year ago with his approval rating down to 37 percent, Schwarzenegger saw his political star fading and made major changes in Sacramento, hiring a lifelong Democrat Susan Kennedy, as his top aide and campaigning on traditionally Democratic issues.

SCHWARZENGGER AD (voiceover): Reducing greenhouse gases and better protection for our ocean and coastline. Governor Schwarzenegger's leadership is making California work again.

S. O'BRIEN: And he's just signed a bill raising the minimum wage. The changes are paying off. Schwarzenegger's now got a double- digit lead in a state where only a third of the voters are registered Republicans. His Democratic opponent Phil Angelides is busy reminding people of the governor's Republican roots.

PHIL ANGELIDES, DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE FOR CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR: Governor Schwarzenegger spent most of this year trying to fake being a Democrat.

S. O'BRIEN: But, even some of Hollywood's most reliable Democrats like Stephen Spielberg and Jeffrey Katzenberg are supporting the actor turned governor. With some political pundits predicting big losses for Republicans on Tuesday night, Schwarzenegger is expected to be one of the only bright spots for the GOP.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

S. O'BRIEN: Just to give you an idea of the different tactics the candidates are using, Governor Schwarzenegger spent Sunday dancing at an African-American church. Phil Angelides tried to get out the vote among Democratic activists -- Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: CNN NEWSROOM, just moments away. Tony Harris at the CNN center with a look at what's ahead.

TONY HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: Hey Miles, good morning to you. We've got these stories on the NEWSROOM rundown. The final day, we're on the campaign trail in every corner of the country today. Voters ready to decide who control Congress.

Evangelical Christians in shock today. A prominent preacher confesses his sins, Ted Haggard, and what he calls his sexual immorality.

And ship to shore, a legendary aircraft carrier on the go this morning. The USS intrepid headed for the repair shop. Join Heidi Collins and me in the "NEWSROOM." We get started at the top of the hour right here on CNN.

M. O'BRIEN: Thank you, Tony.

As you rush around this morning, getting the kids off to the school bus, we want you to stop for a moment.

CNN's David Mattingly is standing by with some words you need to hear -- David.

DAVID MATTINGLY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: School buses are still the safest way to get to class, but they may not be as safe as we sought. I'm David Mattingly. I'll have that story when AMERICAN MORNING continues.

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M. O'BRIEN: Welcome back.

So why in the world aren't more school buses equipped with seatbelts? It seems like that's the least we could do to keep our kids safe as they go to school.

CNN's David Mattingly has been looking into this. He joins us live from Tucker, Georgia, with more on a preview and a little information on this ongoing debate.

Hello, David.

DAVID MATTINGLY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hello, Miles.

There are so few fatal injuries on school buses that school buses are eight times safer for your kid to go to school in than the family car. So think about that as we bring this next point up. We're looking at nonfatal injuries, and there's a new study suggesting there's a lot more kids getting hurt on buses than previously believed.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MATTINGLY (voice over): Over the years, statistical information shows that taking the bus is the safest way to get to school. But according to researchers behind a new national study, school buses should be even safer.

GARY SMITH, CENTER FOR INJURY RESEARCH AND POLICY: Seventeen thousand children are injured each year on school buses. And that number is more than three times higher than previous estimates.

MATTINGLY: The findings published in the "Journal of the American Academy of Pediatrics" shows thousands of strains, sprains, cuts and bruises are treated at emergency rooms every year after mishaps on buses. Forty-two percent of the injuries happen during crashes.

In this extreme case from 2003 in Ohio, a bus rollover tossed kids out of their seats. The injuries weren't serious, but according to researchers, these injuries and many like them could be prevented.

SMITH: Well, it can be a traffic-related swerve, a quick breaking. And if a child's thrown to the side, there's absolutely nothing to keep them from flying through the air.

MATTINGLY: These crash tests by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration shows how higher seat backs and padding provide good protection in front-end collisions. But adding seatbelts and shoulder straps actually caused more injuries to the head, neck and abdomen.

(END VIDEOTAPE) MATTINGLY: The researchers behind this new stud argue that seatbelts could be effective in preventing injuries to students who are in those cases where they're out of their seats to the side and into the aisle.

They also say that better supervision and better behavior on the part of the students themselves could go a long way in reducing the number of injuries on school busses every single year -- Miles.

M. O'BRIEN: It just seems from all the information we know about safety belts and seatbelts that's been drilled into us for years, it seems as if it would be safer to put them on the buses. I'm surprised there's still a debate.

MATTINGLY: The debate is because of the way school buses are configured right now. They've got higher seat backs, they're padded, and the seats are closer together than perhaps when you or I were riding the school buses. That's makes them very safe in these front- end crashes. What the new researchers are arguing, it doesn't do a lot to help them from going side to side.

So if there are seatbelts put in here, then they would have to have more spacing in between the seats so that in the case of an accident they're not banging their head on the front of this higher seat back. So the new busses with seatbelts cost a little more. They're about $6,000 more than the regular bus, and they carry fewer students. So there is a tradeoff there.

M. O'BRIEN: So there is a cost issue at work here as well. At least they don't have those metal backs of the seats like when we were growing up. Those were terrible.

All right, David Mattingly, thanks very much -- Soledad.

S. O'BRIEN: And coming up at the top of the hour, we're continuing to watch that massive fire in Gatorland in Orlando. The gift shop and officers fully engulfed. An update there.

AMERICAN MORNING is back in a moment.

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