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American Morning
Comeback Kids
Aired January 09, 2008 - 05:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
ANNOUNCER: Comeback kids.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We sure showed them what a comeback looks like.
HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Let's give America the kind of comeback that New Hampshire has just given me.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANNOUNCER: Hillary Clinton and John McCain take New Hampshire.
How record turnout and women put Clinton over the top. What it means for Obama.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We've been asked to pause for a reality check.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANNOUNCER: And how the polls got it so wrong. The numbers, the issues and live with the candidates. The wide open battle for the White House on this special edition of AMERICAN MORNING.
JOHN ROBERTS, CNN CO-ANCHOR: And good morning to you. Thanks very much for being with us on this Wednesday, January the 9th, a special edition of AMERICAN MORNING.
I'm John Roberts.
KIRAN CHETRY, CNN CO-ANCHOR: And I'm Kiran Chetry.
Welcome, by the way, to our international viewers who are watching us simulcast this morning on CNN-I.
Perhaps the Drudge Report said it best this morning. Now it gets fun. A lot of inevitabilities thrown out the window with the results last night.
ROBERTS: We thought we had a great story on Friday morning after the Iowa caucus results, but I mean, the story gets even better this morning after what happened last night in New Hampshire.
CHETRY: Exactly.
And if you had to go to bed before you found out what happened, we're going to tell you this morning, plus get reaction all morning on a special edition of AMERICAN MORNING.
And boy, what a difference a week makes. Two winners and two improbable comebacks in New Hampshire. The polls going in said no way, but as people were heading to bed on the East Coast, Hillary Clinton claimed victory over Barack Obama, squeaking out a two point victory there. Exit polling showing she won back some of her bread and butter voters -- the women.
A lot of people were wondering if her tearful moment on the campaign trail may have made a difference.
We're going to be talking with Senator Clinton coming up on AMERICAN MORNING.
Also, his campaign was left for dead over the summer. He was down in the polls, down in the bank and seemingly on the wrong side of some very controversial issues for GOP voters. But Independent voters sent Senator John McCain over the top in New Hampshire and now he's off to Michigan with new life for next Tuesday's primary in that state.
ROBERTS: After riding a wave of momentum into New England, the tides have turned. Senator Barack Obama could not pull off a repeat. Neither could Mike Huckabee. Barack Obama finished two points behind Senator Clinton, despite polls that were giving him a double-digit lead just a day ago. he still gained thousands more votes than the Republican winner did though.
Senator John Edwards was a distant third, more than 20 points behind Clinton and Obama.
Mitt Romney says he now has two silvers and one gold because he did win in Wyoming. But the former governor of neighboring Massachusetts finished second again in New Hampshire.
Iowa's winner Mike Huckabee had a slight bump, but still finished far behind McCain and Romney.
CHETRY: So all morning we're going to take a look at why voters went for John McCain and Hillary Clinton and how they hammered home their messages. And also what challenges lie ahead for the comeback candidates.
This hour we'll be talking with the best political team on television, CNN's Bill Schneider, Suzanne Malveaux, Mary Snow, as well as AMERICAN MORNING's Veronica De la Cruz, getting a reaction for us from the Web, as well as some of your I-Reports this morning.
ROBERTS: Here it is by the numbers on the Democratic side. Hillary Clinton finished with 39 percent of the vote. Barack Obama, right on her heels, at 37 percent. John Edwards at 17 percent.
After the pie was all sliced up, the top two candidates stressed the issues.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: This victory will serve notice that people across our country know what's really at stake, that we will all be called upon to deliver on the promise of America, that we'll have the will and the wisdom to end the war in Iraq the right way...
(APPLAUSE)
CLINTON: ... To deliver on the promise to take care of our brave veterans, and restore America's standing respect and credibility around the world.
BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Our new American majority can end the outrage of unaffordable, unavailable health care in our time. We can bring...
(APPLAUSE)
OBAMA: ... We can bring doctors and patients, workers and businesses, Democrats and Republicans together and we can tell the drug and insurance industry that while they get a seat at the table, they don't get to buy every chair. Not this time. Not now.
SENATOR JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: In a time of war and the terrible sacrifices it entails, the promise of a better future is not always clear. But I promise you, my friends, we face no enemy no matter how cruel and no challenge no matter how daunting greater than the courage, patriotism and determination of Americans. We are the makers of history, not its victims.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: And there you have it.
Over the weekend, polls showed that Hillary Clinton was way behind Barack Obama. So how was she able to pull it off? What put her over the top?
Bill Schneider, a CNN senior political analyst.
First question, Bill, why were the polls so far off? I mean, some polls had -- had him 11 points out in front of her.
BILL SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: That's right. The average was about seven points, and eight polls were taken just before the primary, and they all showed Obama in the lead. Now, all the pollsters are unlikely to make the same mistake. So it must have been something that happened. What could have happened? There are three theories.
One, that there was a late surge, perhaps associated with her show of emotion, with voters moving to her at the last second. A second is race. Many voters might have said to the pollsters they were going to vote for Barack Obama, but in the end they couldn't do it or they wouldn't do it.
A third, ...
ROBERTS: This is what some African-American columnists have referred to as the voting booth conversion.
SCHNEIDER: That's right. People tell pollsters they're going to vote for a black man, but in the end they won't do it.
The third, which you're hearing about all over the blogs, is that there was some corruption of the voting machines so therefore somebody interfered with the results.
I haven't tested them, but those are the theories.
ROBERTS: One of the -- one of the things that we saw in Iowa was that Obama won a number of different ways including among women. Hillary Clinton turned the tables on him in New Hampshire though.
(CROSSTALK)
SCHNEIDER: That's right.
The empire struck back and her base rallied. Women were an important part of her base. Look here. You see that she carried women by 12 points. She had lost women in Iowa, but they came back for her. Was this her show of emotion?
I think it's more likely to have been rallying the base around the economic issue. That was the number one issue to Democrats. And those Democrats who cited the economy went for Hillary Clinton by a sizable margin.
ROBERTS: And literally, the day before the vote, President Bush was out there talking about the economy, not saying that it was on the edge of recession, but suggesting that there were difficult times ahead. Do you think that that might have had something to do with this as well?
SCHNEIDER: That and the stock market was tanking that day, about 300 points down. Americans, particularly women, many of whom live in a situation of economic vulnerability, feel very economically threatened, particularly in New Hampshire. And you can see here that those who cited the economy gave her a pretty big margin.
ROBERTS: What about on the Republican side of things? We saw a lot of these candidates running away from President Bush. They kind of double-backed a little bit, embraced him a bit on a couple of issues. Was there an anti-Bush vote in New Hampshire?
SCHNEIDER: Half the Republicans in New Hampshire have a negative view of the Bush administration. And who do they vote for? They voted for McCain over Romney by 14 points. McCain was in a way the anti-Bush candidate. He was the insurgent. He was the kind of a Republican Obama who is leading the charge against the Republican establishment just as he had done eight years earlier.
ROBERTS: Yes. So is that a replay of what happened in 2000? Were people still hearkening back to that to say if we want to vote against President Bush, let's vote for the guy who beat him in New Hampshire back in 2000?
SCHNEIDER: They -- they haven't forgotten what McCain did to Bush eight years ago and they wanted to make the same statement -- we told you so.
ROBERTS: Now, on the Democratic side, they're so close together on the issues that we saw. A lot of what people were going for was this idea of who would be the best leader, you know, who would be the best agent of change. What about on the Republican side, was it about issues or was it about personality?
SCHNEIDER: On the Republican side, McCain won a personal vote. How do we know this? Because we asked voters, what was more important, the personal qualities or the issues. And the Republicans said personal qualities and those who named personal qualities voted by a sizable margin for John McCain.
What personal qualities are they talking about? They said he centrally believes he has the right experience. Shares my values? No. So that was Mitt Romney.
ROBERTS: So when they're talking about personal qualities, they're talking about what type of person they would be as president?
SCHNEIDER: They admire John McCain, his leadership, his ability to say what he believes. Those things attracted these voters. And the voters of New Hampshire know McCain very well personally. He has spent a lot of time there in 2000 and again this year.
ROBERTS: Wow. It's a whole new race this morning, isn't it?
(CROSSTALK)
ROBERTS: Bill Schneider with some fascinating information for us this morning.
Bill, as always, thanks.
Both Hillary Clinton, by the way, and Barack Obama, are going to be joining us live this morning.
Senator Clinton arrived home in Chappaqua, New York, overnight and will join us at 7:20 Eastern Time this morning.
Senator Obama will follow live from Nashua, New Hampshire.
And as always, more important to us than the horse race, is the issues to help you decide who to vote for. So we'll be talking issues with those two candidates this morning -- Kiran. CHETRY: Maybe some personal qualities too because obviously it's huge with the voters in New Hampshire as well.
Well, Mitt Romney now looks next to next week's primary in Michigan. That's where he is a native. In fact, his father was governor of the state.
Romney finished with 32 percent of the vote in New Hampshire to John McCain's 37 percent. Romney spent millions of dollars in New Hampshire, has a home there. Despite the loss, he says that voters made it clear they're frustrated with Washington.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MITT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I will strengthen America as your president. When I come back here next November, I will fight across this nation, on to Michigan and South Carolina and Florida and Nevada, and states after that...
(APPLAUSE)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHETRY: Iowa GOP winner Mike Huckabee, by the way, says that he is just fine finishing third in New Hampshire. In fact, he lowered expectations even after Iowa, saying he did not expect to win there, that he expected McCain actually to win there.
He told CNN's Wolf Blitzer that he would have been happy with fourth based on his prospects just weeks ago. He also told supporters to keep the momentum going.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MIKE HUCKABEE (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I want to say how much I appreciate the people in New Hampshire for standing with us. It wasn't because that they could see a few weeks ago some obvious victory. It was because they saw in this country the opportunity to really bring the kind of leadership that you and I all know we really need to take America up and not down. And that's what we're going to continue to do.
(APPLAUSE)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHETRY: Huckabee's prospects look better for South Carolina next week and he is counting on the Evangelical population there.
Next stop for John Edwards, his native state of South Carolina. He went from second in Iowa to third in New Hampshire, with 17 percent of the vote.
Also, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson again finished fourth, getting 5 percent of the vote. He told CNN that he will go back to New Mexico for a few days to do some state business, to reassess, but last night he and John Edwards sounded like candidates who plan to keep at it.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SENATOR JOHN EDWARDS (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Upon until now, about half of 1 percent of Americans have voted; 99 percent plus have not voted. And those 99 percent deserve to have their voices heard because we have had too much in America of people's voices not being heard.
GOVERNOR BILL RICHARDSON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We had out West and the fight goes on.
(APPLAUSE)
RICHARDSON: And we will continue. We will continue to raise the issue of getting all our troops out of Iraq.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHETRY: Edwards says he's going to keep fighting for the middle class and try to eliminate corporate influence in Washington.
ROBERTS: So here's where we go next. The Michigan primary is next Tuesday. Hillary Clinton is the only major Democrat on the ballot. Obama and Edwards withdrew when Michigan moved up its primary. It was penalized by the D&C for going before February the 5th.
Then Saturday, January the 19th, the Nevada caucuses and South Carolina's Republican primary. Democrats hold their primary in South Carolina the following Saturday, January the 26th. All of those were sanctioned.
The Florida primary, which was not, is on Tuesday, January the 29th. And then it's super Tuesday, February the 5th, when 21 states, including California and New York -- those huge prizes -- hold their primaries.
We're also expecting an endorsement announcement today from the Culinary Workers Union in Nevada. They've had 60,000 members and was thought to be leading toward Barack Obama after his victory in Iowa, but now really who knows. The union plans to announce its endorsement at a news conference later on this morning.
CHETRY: Well, it is a race for your vote and your money. But some people who want to be president may not be able to keep up financially. Which candidates are spending fast and whose money may not last, coming up.
Also, the campaign of change sees a major change in New Hampshire. How did Hillary pull off her dramatic comeback win? We're going to break that down, ahead on a special edition of AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK) CHETRY: Hillary Clinton's victory. And in her victory speech, she said it was a case of voters realizing the global importance of the contest.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CLINTON: This victory will serve notice that people across our country know what's really at stake, that we will all be called upon to deliver on the promise of America, that we'll have the will and the wisdom to end the war in Iraq the right way...
(APPLAUSE)
CLINTON: ... To deliver on the promise to take care of our brave veterans, and restore America's standing respect and credibility around the world.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHETRY: There she is giving a brief victory speech last night after that surprising win in New Hampshire.
Suzanne Malveaux is in Manchester, New Hampshire, this morning.
You've been following that campaign. What was the reaction last night when that win came in?
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Kiran, obviously there was some disappointment there. I mean, coming out of Iowa, I talked to aides and they were very surprised about their win. Well, perhaps a little bit of too much confidence in those numbers that we had seen just in the days before.
So yes, there was some disappointment, that there were even some polls suggesting a double-digit lead. But make no mistake, they also said they knew this was going to be a very tough fight up against the Clintons.
This is a campaign over the last 48 hours that had gotten a lot more aggressive from Clinton's side, attacking what they were calling a shallow record from Obama, challenging him on inconsistencies, what they saw as inconsistencies in his position.
And what we saw last night, really, was Obama taking advantage of really that inspiration, that motivational message that he puts out there. They know that's his strength and they know that they have to talk about details, specifics about his record and his positions. But I want you to take a listen to how he responded last night and how he really rallied the crowd.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OBAMA: For when we have faced down impossible odds, when we've been told we're not ready or that we shouldn't try, or that we can't, generations of Americans have responded with a simple creed that sums up the spirit of a people. Yes we can. Yes we can. (APPLAUSE)
OBAMA: Yes we can. Yes we can.
CROWD: Yes we can. Yes we can. Yes we can. Yes we can...
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MALVEAUX: So, Kiran, you can see what's happening there. Really, trying to inspire the crowd. And that really is his strength there, expressing this vision he talked about, this notion of false hope as well as reality checks that's coming from the Clinton campaign, that they can fight those perceptions, they can fight those doubts that people might have.
And the big challenge he has -- his aides know this -- is that he really has to expand his base here. Obviously reaching a group of people -- the young voters, also those higher income voters, but he needs to reach the traditional Democrats, the ones that Senator Hillary Clinton did so well in capturing last night -- Kiran.
CHETRY: I'm interested to get your reaction on something that Bill Schneider talked about as well, which was that perhaps the irregularities or the big discrepancy in the polling was that people who claimed they were going to vote for Obama, when they got into the polling booth, actually did not. Is there any reaction from that this morning?
MALVEAUX: There's a lot of talk about it. They're not really sure if that's something that was real or not, but you know, people refer to it as the Tom Bradley factor or the fact that people sometimes say one thing and they do another. They're not sure how much of that is true.
But I will tell you one thing, is that going into South Carolina here, they really see that, I mean, the significance is the African- American vote there -- some 40 percent or so. They say that what happened last night really is going to make people think once again whether or not Barack Obama is electable. And that is so important.
I spoke to a number of people who were inside the Clinton camp who really believe that perhaps because he was knocked back a little bit, that you're going to see a split. You're going to see a split in the African-American vote in South Carolina, with more of the black establishment on the one side and then the younger voters going for Barack Obama on the other.
CHETRY: Suzanne Malveaux for us this morning, thank you.
ROBERTS: And another big win -- this one on the Republican side -- Senator John McCain wins New Hampshire with 37 percent of the vote. And here's how he described the win to his supporters.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MCCAIN: When the pundits declared it was finished, I told them I'm going to New Hampshire where the voters don't let you make their decision for them.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: CNN's Mary Snow is following the GOP candidates. She joins us now, live from Manchester, with more on how the night went for the McCain campaign. And unlike the Hillary Clinton win, this one, not exactly unexpected last night -- Mary.
MARY SNOW, CNN CORRESPONDENT: That's right John. Not unexpected in the past few weeks. But you know, John McCain's campaign was really on the ropes back in the summer. He had taken a lot of heat for supporting the Illegal Immigration Reform Bill. But one of the things that is seen to his credit is that he had always advocated reinforcing troops or sending more troops to Iraq and that helped him when conditions started to improve there. But, you know, this was a very dramatic fight. And John McCain was interrupted several times by applause, and his crowd was so enthusiastic thought when he came out last night.
Let's take a listen to more of what he had to say.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MCCAIN: My friends, you know, I'm past the age when I can claim the noun kid, no matter what adjective precedes it. But tonight, we sure showed them what a comeback looks like.
(APPLAUSE)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SNOW: And this was really a make or break state for John McCain.
As for Mitt Romney, this was the second setback for him. Mitt Romney had thought yesterday that he would win in New Hampshire, despite the fact he had suffered a setback in Iowa. He had really kind of tweaked his message. And he was stressing the need for change in Washington, but he is vowing to go on.
Let's take a listen to his talk last night.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ROMNEY: Well, another silver, and it's -- I'd rather have a gold, but I got another silver. And now there have been...
(APPLAUSE)
ROMNEY: There have been three -- there have been three races so far. I've gotten two silvers and one gold.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SNOW: But he is vowing, John, to stay in this for the long haul. And you know, today his campaign is back in Boston before they head out to Michigan. And he is having a fundraising day. But he's really betting his success in Michigan because his father had been the governor there and this is going to be a real test for him to see if he can stay in this race, even though he's vowing to stay in it for the long haul.
(CROSSTALK)
ROBERTS: And a very different set of voters he will meet in South Carolina as well.
Mary Snow for us this morning on the campaign trail bright and early this morning.
Mary, thanks very much -- Kiran.
CHETRY: Well, the campaign of change seeing a major change in New Hampshire. Did Hillary Clinton pull off her -- how did she do it? How did she pull of that dramatic comeback win? We're going to break it down on a special edition of AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ROBERTS: Twenty-six minutes after the hour as we continue our special post-New Hampshire primary coverage.
And there a few things sweeter in politics than a surprise come from behind victory. And this morning Hillary Clinton just knows how sweet it is. Clinton and John McCain scored major wins in the New Hampshire primary. But can the two quote, "comeback candidates" carry that momentum with them to South Carolina and beyond?
Joining us now live from Manchester, New Hampshire, is Dana Milbank. He is the national political reporter from the "Washington Post," also the author of the fabulous and very funny new book, "Homo Politicus: The Strange and Scary Tribes that Run our Government."
Dana, good to see you.
You had the opportunity to spend some time with John McCain. We saw him sore to victory last night in New Hampshire. But can he translate that to a win in the contests that follow, particularly South Carolina, where he didn't do so well in the year 2000 and will face a very different electorate there than he did in New Hampshire?
DANA MILBANK, "WASHINGTON POST": You know, John, I think after our experience, not quite seeing the Obama sweep there in Iowa, and then being blindsided last night, I'm not going to go out on a limb and say anything about what's going to happen at any point even five minutes from now.
But, that said, John McCain is in a much better position in South Carolina than he was eight years ago. He has much more solid veteran support. There's no real establishment candidate who is in his way right now. He's got a much better organization, there are many more endorsements from local political figures. So he stands to be in a much, much better position right now. But having said that, we're going to be careful on making predictions. ROBERTS: Yes. He still has some problem with conservatives though, particularly in that state on issues like taxation, are there moral issues?
MILBANK: He does. And Mike Huckabee is almost certainly going to pick up those voters. He's also got a bit of a problem with Fred Thompson, who while seemingly dead in Iowa and New Hampshire, actually does have a following down there in the South. So by no means does he have a clear road ahead of him.
ROBERTS: What about Mitt Romney? Is he at this decision point yet where he has to say to himself, how much more of my own fortune do I pour into a campaign that has only been able to rack up a win so far in Wyoming?
MILBANK: Yes. Now, certainly the -- the conventional wisdom right now is saying that -- that his candidacy is going absolutely nowhere. But you also have to be -- I was having a breakfast yesterday and people were talking about how they were going to -- in the Democratic establishment -- how they were going to nudge Hillary out of the race because of her poor performance.
But clearly, Romney having invested so much time in these two states, and coming up with these two silver medals which don't count for a whole lot in politics.
ROBERTS: Hillary certainly proved the pundits wrong last night with her come from behind, at least according to the polls, victory.
Let's take a quick listen to a little bit from her victory speech where she talked about what may have pushed her over the top.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CLINTON: I want especially to thank New Hampshire. Over the last week I listened to you and in the process I found my own voice.
(APPLAUSE)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: Just a few hours earlier, Dana, people were saying, will the money dry up if she loses? What's her Plan B? It looked like Plan A worked pretty well, except for this idea of finding her voice. What do you think changed in the last, oh, couple or three days there?
MILBANK: Well, certainly what people are going to look back at is this pivotal moment is when she actually choked up in public when asked about how she gets out of the house in the morning, an unexpected moment for her. I think what we saw last night was she was able to show emotion again. This is - while seemingly normal for most people - is unusual for Hillary Clinton.
We didn't see her up there on stage with the dower Madeleine Albright. Bill and Chelsea were there, but quickly went off the stage. She was there standing by herself. She was obviously capable of showing an emotion. This time there was no reason for tears of course.
KING: We'll see how that serves her going forward, Dana Milbank from the "Washington Post," also author of "Home Politicus," the brand new book and if you want to see the inherent humor in Washington, pick up this book because it's very funny. Dana, thanks very much for being with us. Good to see you.
MILBANK: Thanks a lot John.
ROBERTS: Kiran?
KIRAN CHETRY, CNN ANCHOR, AMERICAN MORNING: Still ahead, you're watching the most news in the morning on this early edition of AMERICAN MORNING and it's all up for grabs. Last night they say was the night that changed the presidential race on both ends. The winners and a recap of the night in New Hampshire coming up.
And we're also going to talk about who put the candidates over the top, how the voters made their choices and why. We're going to talk about that story, today's headlines as well when AMERICAN MORNING comes right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHETRY: Welcome back to a special edition of AMERICAN MORNING. It is Wednesday, January 9th. I'm Kiran Chetry.
ROBERTS: And good morning to you. I'm John Roberts and we welcome in our international viewers watching on CNNI this morning. It's the morning after New Hampshire and one thing is for sure, it's still wide open. Senators Hillary Clinton and John McCain won the nation's first primary despite what the polls said going in. Clinton eked out a close two point victory over Barack Obama. Exit polls show that she won back some of her bread and butter voters. Those are women. She's now home in New York and we're going to be talking to her live coming up on AMERICAN MORNING just a little less than two hours from now.
And new life for the McCain campaign. Independent voters put the senator over the top in New Hampshire. Now he's off to Michigan, new life for next Tuesday's primary there.
CHETRY: And Barack Obama finishing a very close second, but second nonetheless behind Senator Clinton despite polling that gave him a big lead just a day ago. He still gained about 13,000 more votes than the Republican winner, Senator John Edwards a distant third, more than 20 points behind both Clinton and Obama.
And Mitt Romney says he now has two silvers and one gold. He did the Wyoming caucuses, but the former governor of neighboring Massachusetts finished second in New Hampshire. He was looking up at a different opponent this time though. Iowa's winner Mike Huckabee had a slight bump, still finished though way back of the front winners in third place. But Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will be joining us live this morning. Senator Clinton arrived home in Chappaqua just outside of New York City overnight and will join us at 7:20 and Senator Obama will follow live from Nashua, New Hampshire, coming up at 7:30 Eastern time right here on AMERICAN MORNING.
Well, a lot of other stories making headlines overnight. Alina Cho has been following the very latest developments. We've of course been steeped in politics and you've been holding down the fort for us.
ALINA CHO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Welcome back from Manchester. You don't look any worse for the wear, although (INAUDIBLE)
CHETRY: Not a lot of sleep, but the weather was decent.
CHO: It was very warm and that's sparking some tornadoes in the Midwest. We'll get to that in just a minute guys. Good morning and good morning everybody, but we begin with talk today of a different kind of comeback, not politics, but in the overseas markets. Japan's Nikkei average fought off yesterday's big losses on Wall Street. The Nikkei came back from its lowest point in a year and a half to close up 70 points on the day. Stocks are also up by the way in Hong Kong and Taiwan.
New action on Mideast peace today as President Bush lands in Israel. Air Force One touched down within the past hour or so. Israeli and Palestinian leaders met yesterday and agreed to restart talks. Of course, President Bush's ambitious goal is to create a Palestinian state by the end of the year. Security as you might imagine, is extremely tight. This is President's Bush's first visit to Israel since taking office.
New developments today in the investigation of a Missouri teenager who killed herself in an Internet hoax. You may remember this story. It's one we've been following here on AMERICAN MORNING. Federal prosecutors are now considering charging a mother with defrauding the social networking site myspace. They say the woman created a false account and communicated with a 13-year old named Megan Myer (ph) by pretending to be a 16-year old boy. Myer killed herself by hanging in 2006 after being rejected by the person she thought was her love interest. The woman is the mother of one of Myer's former friends. She denies sending any of the cruel messages. Meanwhile, Missouri lawmakers are pushing now to make it a felony for an adult to harass a child online.
Also new developments to report in the kidnapping and murder of a Georgia hiker. Prosecutors now say the man accused in the case, 61- year old Gary Hilton, made a deal to lead police to the body of Meredith Emerson. In exchange, they took the death penalty off the table. The 24-year old Emerson went for a hike on New Year's Day. Police think she was beaten to death four days later. Emerson's boyfriend appeared last night on Nancy Grace and talked about the woman he loved.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
NANCY GRACE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Steve, how are you and how is Meredith's family tonight?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I can only speak for me. It's stunning. It's crippling and I thank you so much for giving me the opportunity to put a face on this amazing individual. She is the single most brilliant thing I've ever known. It doesn't quite cover it. She was (INAUDIBLE) to give.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHO: Investigators in Florida and North Carolina are now comparing notes with Georgia police. They want to see if Hilton might also be connected to similar crimes in those states.
One of the two inmates who staged a Hollywood-style escape from a New Jersey jail is back behind bars this morning. You remember this story. On a tip, police say they found 20-year old Jose Espinosa in an apartment - get this, just six blocks from the jail, not very smart. So far, the other inmate, Otis Blunt, has not turned himself into authorities. Espinosa and Blunt you'll recall, escaped on December 15th by digging through their cell walls and then covering the hole with posters of bikini-clad girls, similar to what we saw in the movie "The Shawshank Redemption." Of course it didn't end the same way. They also left a note mocking the jail guard and that guard committed suicide last week.
(WEATHER REPORT)
CHO: And one thing we're also watching and will have for you later on in the show is that I talked to Nancy Grace last night on her big return back to television after having her twins. She had some health problems and so forth, but we talked to her at length and we're going to have that for you later on in the show.
CHETRY: The two are doing OK despite (INAUDIBLE)
CHO: Lucy Elizabeth and John David, another John David. Yes, they're six pounds and eight pounds. Little Lucy was just two pounds when she was born so it's a major turnaround and she's doing great. She's never looked better. (INAUDIBLE) said she looked smoking hot. Anyway...
CHETRY: Good for her.
CHO: (INAUDIBLE)
CHETRY: Look forward to that, thanks so much.
ROBERTS: All right thanks. Let's take a look at Hillary Clinton's speech from last night, from a little bit of a different angle. Take a look at who was standing behind the candidate and who was not standing there. He was conspicuous by his absence, sort of old guard Democrats, her husband, not even Chelsea Clinton standing there. They did come up and they congratulated her. Then they sort of moved off of the stage, nothing left but a sea of young people behind her, a big change from Iowa and let's take a look at that picture Kiran where you see quite a different backdrop here. The old guard standing behind the senator noticeably, the former president and the Secretary of State Madeleine Albright as well.
CHETRY: That's right and of course, there you see it. The victory speech from last night though also was on the campus of Southern New Hampshire University after all, so they had more young people to pick from. But there was a lot of talk after she lost Iowa about possibly a shake up in her campaign, a new advisor is going to come in and help her sort of rejigger her message a bit and critics said that she was - that the former president was too involved and that it reminded voters of some of the negative baggage that Mrs. Clinton would possibly carry into the White House. Well in New Hampshire, she courted the young voters who went for Barack in Iowa and she even changed her campaign music. Not still when all was said and done, more young voters did still vote for Barack Obama, but certainly a change that you saw in that victory speech.
ROBERTS: Of course there was a change of tone as well. She came third in Iowa. Typically when a candidate comes third, they're surrounded by their closest advisors and their campaign supporter surrogates, husband, wife, spouse, whatever in this case. But and then when you win, you want to be there on stage alone to sort of revel in it. So that might have a little bit to do with it as well, but no question that she won the over 65 vote among women in Iowa, was definitely trying to target younger people and will continue to do that going forward.
CHETRY: All right, well, we're going to talk to her coming up in just a couple of hours as well as Barack Obama, so you want to keep it here first, 7:00 Eastern hour of AMERICAN MORNING as well.
So here's where the candidates go next. Let's take a look at the calendar. The Michigan primary is next Tuesday. This is curious though. Hillary Clinton is the only major Democrat on the ballot. Obama and Edwards withdrew when Michigan moved up its primary. That was a primary not sanctioned by the DNC. Then on Saturday, January 19th, the Nevada caucuses and South Carolina's Republican primary. Democrats hold their primary in South Carolina the following Saturday, January 26th. The Florida primary is then Tuesday, January 29th and then it is what's known as Super Duper Tuesday, February 5th, when more than 20 states hold their primary elections.
ROBERTS: And that'll be the big deciding night according to a lot of people. Well, how did the experts get it so wrong? We're going to take a look at the exit polling that we did yesterday and what the voters were voting on and how it put Hillary Clinton over the top and how is the African-American vote breaking, looking ahead to South Carolina and a key battle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Roland Martin joins us just ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
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ROBERTS: Fourteen minutes now to the top of the hour. The polls were dead wrong on the Democratic side at least, but whey were they wrong? Well, our exit polling showed that women in New Hampshire went back to Hillary Clinton. She had lost them in Iowa and lost the caucuses there. Clinton won nearly half of the women's vote in New Hampshire, while Obama got only about a third. Seniors and lower income workers also said they supported Clinton.
Independent voters were the deciding factor on the Republican side of the fence. Most who voted for the GOP went for John McCain.
And now let's go over to Kiran.
CHETRY: Thanks John. Well, Senator Barack Obama is expected to make an all-out push for the Africa-American vote in South Carolina. It's important to note that black voters make up half of the state's Democratic primary electorate and the polls, asterisk, are suggesting that they're breaking for Obama and away from Hillary Clinton, but Roland Martin joins me now, CNN contributor and host of the "Roland Martin Show." We've been talking about this this morning, a lot of head scratching this morning after poll after poll after poll, including both candidates' polls were pretty much in consensus that Barack Obama was polling far ahead of Hillary Clinton. What happened in your view?
ROLAND MARTIN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: I don't think a lot of folks obviously didn't want to focus on the (INAUDIBLE) matter of race, but many believe race had something to do with it. Clearly she did well among women, but also when were the polls taken and so the (INAUDIBLE) was taken Saturday, her within eight points, Saturday night, then Sunday, then the whole crying tearful episode Monday. Many believe that got huge play in all of the evening shows Monday night, plus (INAUDIBLE) shows on Tuesday. And so many people - especially the Obama camp, they said that women said, you know what, there's no way in the world we're not going to give her a shot. Second primary, we don't want her to buy out (ph), but clearly she did a lot better in New Hampshire among key demographics than she did in Iowa, especially among single women who vote for Obama in Iowa, but at a 17-point serious (ph) lead over Obama in New Hampshire for Clinton.
CHETRY: The other question about young voters. There was a huge push to get these young voters out and Barack Obama has his Barack stars, the younger voters. They sometimes aren't the ones that always make it to the polls though when all is said and done.
MARTIN: Well, absolutely and they are sort of the Holy Grail. Everybody wants them, but the question, will they show up? I think you really want to analyze this. Obama has the riskiest strategy and that is, he's trying to say, let me get young voters, independent voters as well as traditional voters. Clinton goes after traditional Democratic voters, union, blue collar, older voters, women and so you have his folks have to turn out. They're more riskier. In Iowa, 22 percent of the people who voted in Iowa were between 17 and 29, in New Hampshire, 17 percent.
CHETRY: That would be enough to sway it because he only won by...
MARTIN: Five percent makes a difference, especially when (INAUDIBLE) people voted. But the other key Kiran is also an important thing, 50 percent of the people who voted in New Hampshire made the decision that day.
CHETRY: A lot of undecideds. MARTIN: That's 40,000 some odd people.
CHETRY: Absolutely and we were there and we were talking to people at the diner who were literally coming in and hadn't decided yet what they were doing in a couple of hours down the road.
MARTIN: So they made their decision based upon what happened basically in the previous 24 hours.
CHETRY: Let's talk South Carolina, because what we were talking about last week is for the first time, many black voters can say an African-American can win this. Let me put...
MARTIN: (INAUDIBLE)
CHETRY: And does that change after his loss in New Hampshire?
MARTIN: Well, let me throw this out. We've been reporting African-Americans make up nearly 50 percent of the Democratic party voters in South Carolina. Whites make up 50 percent so although there's been a lot of interest on African-Americans, the Obama camp and the Clinton camp and we're supposed to also look at those white voters. And so the question is, is it going to be a plateau? How does that work? So absolutely, the Obama camp...
CHETRY: ... over 93 percent in Iowa (INAUDIBLE)
MARTIN: So, but again, you have to compete. What you don't want to do is go sole large toward targeting black voters that you basically ignore white voters who make up half the electorate. So they're going to send tons of people in, gospel stars and actors, actresses. I think the person who is going to be critical to South Carolina is not Barack Obama. It's Michelle Obama. Here's someone from the south side of Chicago, mother, attorney, two daughters and so how is she going to be used to target the voters? I think she's going to be key in really reaching black women. Forty percent of black women in South Carolina are undecided. Whoever they chose to go with, that's who wins.
CHETRY: How about Bill Clinton? You talk about Michelle Obama. Bill Clinton also wildly popular there as well.
MARTIN: Absolutely, but again, I think when folks say wait a minute. You have an opportunity to actually have an actual African- American president versus the whole idea of Bill Clinton and the first black president, that's playing a key role. We know Clinton's black supporters are getting some serious heat from constituents, but also how will black talk radio play? They were huge with the Jena six rally. They were huge for a long time over the last several years and so, let's see what the strategy's going to be, targeted them because we got these national shows and the bottom line is, many people in those markets will listen to black talk radio and music stations and so it will be very interesting which candidate has a strategy that deals with them to talk about their campaigns.
CHETRY: A lot going on, a lot of factors went in, so we'll certainly be watching. Roland, always great to see you. Thanks so much.
MARTIN: I appreciate it.
CHETRY: John.
ROBERTS: We asked and once again you delivered, the best of your I-reports from yesterday's primary. That is just ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
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(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MITT ROMNEY (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I will strengthen America. I will stand up for the values we believe in and I'll make sure that America is, as it has always been, the hope of the earth. Thank you so much.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: Mitt Romney last night after coming second in the small state of New Hampshire, which traditionally packs a big political punch and yesterday was no different. Our Veronica de la Cruz is here with our I-reporters' take on the presidential primary there. We had some great I-reports come in from the Iowa caucuses. What did we get last night?
VERONICA DE LA CRUZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Exact same thing. Candidates who want to do well in New Hampshire, they have to put in the face time and our I-reporters were there to grab some great snapshots from the campaign trail. Cell phones out, I-reporters like Igor (ph), a college student, pointed and clicked his way through Concord. He grabbed this shot of Senator Barack Obama as he stopped to speak with voters and there's somebody in front of him John with another cell phone.
Igor was also able to snap this photo of Senator Clinton as she was taking questions from voters. He says he heard both candidates speak. He was leaning toward Clinton, but Obama really left an impression on him.
And he's a political science major so he attended rallies for a lot of the candidates there. Here's one for John McCain. He really did a good job of getting up close and personal with Obama, Clinton and McCain. So thank you so much Igor. We appreciate it.
Another I-report, this one is from Don that was taken in the town of Alexander, which is only three square miles. This gentleman in the photo apparently cast the first vote there. Don says he told her gun and hunter safety are the biggest issues for him.
Speaking of small towns, we received several photos from Gail in Wilton, New Hampshire. She wanted us to get a sneak peak at the voting process there. Local volunteers handing out paper ballots. There aren't any voting machines. And then afterwards, as you can see here, the ballots are placed on a table and then they are hand counted. She says that she doesn't think there are many towns left that do this, but she says the process guarantees no hangings chads or voting machine irregularities, definitely something to think about right?
ROBERTS: Yeah, well sometimes the old fashioned way is the best way.
DE LA CRUZ: Right, right, exactly.
ROBERTS: In a state like New Hampshire, tried and true to tradition.
DE LA CRUZ: And I wanted to remind you, if you have a political I-report that you'd like to send us, you can log onto to cnn.com/ireport. You can also type in I-report at cnn.com right into your cell phone.
ROBERTS: Veronica, thanks very much and remember, Kiran, when we were in Concord, we ran into those two ladies from New York who were political tourists. She'd come over there and spend a few days just to see the political process.
DE LA CRUZ: Exactly and they were going to make their way to the very various rallies for the day, hoping to get a chance to say hello to the candidates, see the media types as well. So hey, why not?
CHETRY: Political vacation.
DE LA CRUZ: Right on.
ROBERTS: Veronica, thanks very much.
CHETRY: Well, coming up, more analysis of the New Hampshire primary. How did Hillary Clinton prove all the polls wrong and win the first primary in the nation? We're going to talk about that. Also a dangerous (INAUDIBLE) between U.S. war ships and Iranian speed boats. You're going to see and hear what happened ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
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