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American Morning
Battleground North Carolina; Record Number Expected to Vote in Pennsylvania; Balance of Power; Election Day Surprises
Aired November 04, 2008 - 05:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KIRAN CHETRY, CNN ANCHOR (voice over): Election Day in America.
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Now is all about who wants it more.
CHETRY: The day you will make history, one way...
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We're going to win this election.
CHETRY: Or the other.
OBAMA: This is where change begins.
CHETRY: The first polls open just minutes from now, the first lines already out the door.
OBAMA: Take your friends, take your neighbors. We can't stop, not now, not when there's so much at stake.
CHETRY: The candidates still going and so are we.
MCCAIN: I've been fighting for this country since I was 17 years old and I have the scars to prove it.
CHETRY: CNN's special 24-hour coverage continues with the last minute info you need to know on the most politics in the morning.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHETRY: Welcome to a special edition of AMERICAN MORNING. We're on an hour early on this Tuesday, November 4th, because this is.
JOHN ROBERTS, CNN ANCHOR: Who would have ever thought that it would come this? Finally at the end of this long campaign, this arduous process, all the primaries and everything, that there might actually be an election at the end of it.
CHETRY: It is very exciting to say the least, and we're going to be covering it, top to bottom, for you. Stick with us for the next four hours.
ROBERTS: And don't forget to that the day after tomorrow, Election 2012 begins. (LAUGHTER)
ROBERTS: Get ready for that.
Taking a look at the top stories on this Election Day.
Barack Obama back home in Chicago right now. He ended his campaign with a late-night rally in Virginia. The battleground state has not supported a Democratic presidential nominee since 1964.
The campaign also announced yesterday that Obama's grandmother died from cancer in Hawaii at the age of 86.
And John McCain just wrapped up his seven-state battleground marathon a short time ago with a midnight rally back home in Prescott, Arizona. He was introduced by his wife, Cindy. Senators Joe Lieberman and Lindsay Graham were also there.
McCain promised to supporters that he would win today's election.
And a look at the final CNN Poll of Polls as America goes to vote today. Barack Obama has a seven-point edge over John McCain, 51-44 percent, as many as 5 percent of people will be making up their minds inside the voting booth.
And Governor Sarah Palin cleared of ethics violations in connection with the firing of Alaska's public safety commissioner. The state's personnel board overturned the findings of a separate investigation by the state legislature, included that Palin did abuse her office for letting her husband and state employees push the commission to fire a state trooper
That trooper went through a nasty divorce with her sister.
CHETRY: Well, it is 5:00 a.m. here on the East Coast, and the first of the 50 states is opening its polls right now. Vermont is the first, very first, to open voting precincts. Leading into today, polling showed the state to be solidly in Barack Obama's column. That, of course, remains to be seen, still though. Three electoral votes are at stake.
And the nation's first Election Day votes are counted overnight. Barack Obama the big winner in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire. People in this isolated village in the northeast corner of the state cast their votes as they do every four years after midnight.
Fifteen votes for Obama, six for McCain. It's actually the first time since 1968 that the village leaned Democratic in an election.
ROBERTS: Well, the last night the trail was a late one for both candidates. Barack Obama made his last campaign appearance in the battleground state of Virginia, as we said, in the town of Manassas in the all-important Prince William County.
And he returned to the one-word message that he used to launch his campaign -- change. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OBAMA: One voice can change a room. And if the voice can change a room, it can change a city. And if it can change a city, it can change a state, and if it can change a state, it can change a nation. And if it can change the nation, it can change the world.
So I just got one question for you, Virginia. Are you fired up? Are you ready to go? Fired up! Ready to go! Fired Up! Ready to go!
Virginia, let's go change the world. Thank you. God bless you and God bless...
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: Our Suzanne Malveaux is live in Chicago for us this morning.
Suzanne, Prince William County there where Barack Obama was in Virginia, if he manage to put that one in the wind column, it would certainly go a long way to bringing the commonwealth home for him. And he was fired up yesterday.
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Can you believe, John, it's been 21 months now that we have heard that -- when we first heard that, and I have to say that Barack Obama, he got here, local time, about 1:00 in the morning.
He came back in the back of the press plane to thank everybody including reporters, saying that everyone was gracious, that he was very appreciate of the process, and that he was looking forward to seeing how this whole story was going to end.
I talked to a lot of people on the campaign and that they are excited. They're very confident but they're also really scared today. They don't know what's going to happen. It was two weeks ago when you started to see those numbers change in Obama's favor.
There was an (INAUDIBLE) that came from on high, meaning Barack and Michelle Obama telling everybody don't take this for granted. Put your head down, work as hard as you can like you've never worked before, because you can't take this granted.
And they have done just that. There is a sense of optimism, John, but also a little bit of fear, a little bit of skepticism today.
ROBERTS: Anxiety, I mean, there's got to be a lot of anxiety any time when you get down to the final moments like this, and you -- you're wondering are the polls right or are they wrong? Or, you know -- because they saw this picture. New Hampshire where they went in ahead and Hillary Clinton won.
Hey, sad moment yesterday when we found that Barack Obama's grandmother had passed away. Let's listen to what he said about that.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) OBAMA: Some of you heard that my grandmother who helped raised me passed away early this morning. And look, she -- has gone home. And she died peacefully in her sleep, with my sister at her side. And so there's great joy as well as tears.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: So Suzanne, (INAUDIBLE) head on the campaign, you know, I assume that he'll be in Chicago today to watch the results come in and do whatever he has to do later on this evening, but I would expect that he'll probably go to the funeral later on this week?
MALVEAUX: Sure. It's going to be a private funeral, and you know, it was a really rare moment to see Barack Obama emotional and tearful like that. You know he has talked a lot about losing his mother and being abandoned by his father. But it's rare when you actually see that kind of emotion.
He has found out relatively early in the day, yesterday, about 8 o'clock in the morning but chose to continue to campaign and get ready, ready himself to discuss it in a public way later in the day.
But he -- he said last week, on Friday, when we were in Honolulu, he was visiting with her that he wasn't sure if she was going to make it until this day, until this Election Day, to see this day, that he certainly was praying that that was the case but didn't know that he was able to speak with her when she was lucid, but he said that yesterday was really a bittersweet for him -- John.
ROBERTS: Well, I'm sure that she's still watching over the entire proceedings, though.
Suzanne Malveaux, for us this morning. Suzanne, thanks so much.
CHETRY: Well, meantime, John McCain, for him, the campaign trail headed back in his home state. He had a midnight rally in Prescott, Arizona. And even though he's behind in the polls, McCain told his supporters that victory is within sight.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MCCAIN: This momentum and this enthusiasm convinces me we're going to win tomorrow. You got to volunteer, you got to knock on doors, you got to get your neighbors to the polls, I need your vote. We need to bring real change to Washington and we have to fight for it.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHETRY: And our Ed -- Ed Henry is with the McCain camp back in Phoenix. He joins us live, bright and early.
So does McCain think he has enough momentum in the key battleground states like Nevada to really pull this out, because on the stump and by some of the reporting behind the scenes, he seems very upbeat? ED HENRY, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: He does. Absolutely. Good morning, Kiran. And the fact is, this campaign realizes they are down, they've been down, but they do feel like they have been surging a bit in some of those key battleground, a place like Virginia, a place like Florida where John McCain started his day yesterday.
The CNN Poll of Polls had it down to a two-point race. But again, he's down. He's still down. But they feel he is coming back. They -- bottom line -- feel if he keeps a lot of the Republican red states that George W. Bush carried in 2004, states like Florida and Virginia, they feel they can get to about 260 electoral votes. That'll be 10 short to the magic number of 270.
And then they think they have two different paths towards victory. They either win Pennsylvania and its 21 electoral votes, that's a difficult, uphill battle, though, obviously, though, it's been leaning Democrat for a long time. Or they covet together some smaller states, like you mentioned, like Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico.
And, in fact, John McCain is not going to rest today. As you mentioned, he just got in and just in the last hour here in the Phoenix area, after logging over 3700 miles all across the country on Straight Talk Air, he's going to go back out to Colorado and New Mexico today.
So this campaign is not going to rest. They feel strong and they do feel like they're coming back, Kiran.
CHETRY: And also, his wife Cindy McCain who's been with him, you him -- her standing behind him at every single rally, she got choked up a little bit last night. Let's listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CINDY MCCAIN, WIFE OF SEN. JOHN MCCAIN: He has lived his life by the code of conduct -- duty, honor and country. He has taught our children the same ideals. I am so proud to introduce to you tonight, my husband, John McCain.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHETRY: What happened there for Cindy? She seems very emotional.
HENRY: Yes, that really grabs you when you hear that. I mean she's somebody who is not really a political animal. She's sort of reluctant to be on the stage. We've seen that throughout this campaign. But she's grown more and more comfortable in this role as a surrogate for her husband introducing him on the stump.
But being there on the court house steps in Prescott where John McCain ended his previous campaigns for the Senate, et cetera, it had to be a very emotional moment both for her and for him.
He also got a little choked up in a couple of moments in that rally. And I can tell you, we're here at the Biltmore Hotel, which is somewhere John McCain has also spent election night before. And a lot of his followers, his key allies, are gathering together and all getting very emotional, because they realized there's a turning point in his career tonight.
He's either going to win, go to the White House to deal with a very strong likely Democratic Senate, get -- picking up seats. Or he's going to have to go back to the Senate and figure out what's his next move, Kiran.
CHETRY: All right, Ed Henry for us this morning in Phoenix, thanks.
ROBERTS: Ten and a half minutes after the hour. So far polls only open in the state of Vermont. But coming up at 6 o'clock they'll open in another nine states here in the east including the battleground states of Virginia and Indiana.
And if you see any voting irregularities on this Election Day, we want to know about it. Call 1-877-GOCNN-08 to report any problems. Again, the number 1-877-462-6608.
Florida, closely watched in this year's race. Will it be the state deciding the election? We're breaking down the battlegrounds coming up.
You're watching the most politics in the morning. A special edition of AMERICAN MORNING this Tuesday, November 4th, Election Day.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ROBERTS: Fourteen and a half minutes after the hour. Let's turn now to our political panel this morning, Ed Rollins, Leslie Sanchez, Robert Zimmerman and Melissa Harris-Lacewell.
It's good to see you all this morning. Thanks for being up with us so bright and early.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes.
ROBERTS: I'm sure like everybody else, nobody wants to sleep, right?
(LAUGHTER)
ROBERTS: So today is going to be all about getting out the vote.
Ed, why don't you start us up? What do we watch for today?
ED ROLLINS, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Well, first of all, watch the long lines. This is in anticipation, if there's big lines across the country, big lines in places like Virginia and Iowa, what have you, then you know, both sides are sort of got their machines going.
I think this is a big advantage that the Democrats have. They have a tremendous number of volunteers and they've really organized this thing. Historically, that's been our great strength and I think in a certain sense there's (INAUDIBLE).
ROBERTS: I mean when did all of this change, Melissa? Used to be the Republicans with the great get-out-the-vote operation. Now it's the Democrats, as Ed said, really kind of leading the way here.
MELISSA HARRIS-LACEWELL, OBAMA SUPPORTER: Well, I mean, it was originally the Democrats. And then the Republicans really built over the past 25 years, right, that same capacity, and in fact, figured out how to take a 50-state strategy.
So what -- what the Democrats have done this time that is different than in the past couple of elections is actually campaign in the south, to actually campaign in the west, and to build organization across the country.
That long primary ended up a good thing for the Democrats.
ROBERTS: So Robert, Virginia, one of the first states to close. What are going to be looking for in Virginia in terms of trends?
ROBERT ZIMMERMAN, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Well, I think what's going to be very important because -- when it does close early is to look at where the turnout comes from, of course. Democrats traditionally do well in the part of Virginia, the part of the Washington metro area, and that's a very important point.
But I think what's also important to look at this year is the suburban rural areas. And particularly, you know, for -- suburbia was always the Republican stronghold because taxes were the defining issue.
And now you're seeing suburbia respond to issues regarding the value of one's home, 401(k)s and the economic crisis has really hit suburbia and hit that basic Republican strength.
ROBERTS: When are we going to know if John McCain has a chance going into tonight?
LESLIE SANCHEZ, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Well, I think we might know very soon. I think it's interesting. We're going to look at states like Kentucky, and I bring up Kentucky because it's one of those states that report out early. It's always the kind of this bellwether area.
Bush won it very convincingly. But it's also an area that people get a sense of what's going to be happening. And of course, we're going to be watching Virginia.
But other thing that was not mentioned was youth voters. This is the first time -- it's almost, I'd like to say it's like a Mazarati in first gear. Barack Obama has the mobile technology, this data base he's been building. He's going to put that to work.
He'll be texting people that are probably those swing voters all throughout the day. We don't know the impact that can have on the ground, in these lines that Ed is talking about. ROBERTS: What are the -- what are the issues that people are going to be voting on today? When they go to poll and leave there, what are they going to be thinking about?
ROLLINS: I think it's really about leadership. I don't -- I think -- I think it's hard to differentiate on the issues. They're all going to cut taxes, they're all going to promise a bunch of programs. They're all going to have health care programs.
In the end, it's who do you basically trust to be the most significant leader and I think that's -- you know that's what it's about.
ZIMMERMAN: Yes, I think -- I think Ed's point is very much on target. This is really an election about change in terms of changing the mood and the temperament and the way we relate to one another.
Look, very heavy partisanship is taking a true toll on the electorate. And I think when you hear people talk about change, they're talking about changing the climate in Washington.
ROBERTS: Right. So one real quick question to you. For Barack Obama, will Hamilton County in Ohio be the one that -- could change the equation for him?
SANCHEZ: I -- well, look, a lot of counties that Clinton did very well in that -- I'm not convinced yet that these are areas that are going to probably go with Barack Obama. I've yet to see that.
And I would say this -- a lot of these independent voters tend to break for the challenger, not the incumbent. And because Barack Obama has been in the lead so long for the -- you know, since probably the end of September, he's more likely not to take advantage of those votes.
ROLLINS: If Hamilton goes for Barack, we're in trouble.
ROBERTS: OK, there you go.
SANCHEZ: Yes.
ROBERTS: You heard it. All right. We got to run but we're going to keep you around for the entire morning. Still looking forward to more good analysis on the upcoming election. Thanks for being with us, folks. We'll see you again soon.
And what do we got now? Eighteen minutes after the hour. You're watching AMERICAN MORNING.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CHETRY (voice over): Navigating Election Day.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I've heard that some people are running into digital machines where they cast their votes and it doesn't necessarily seem to tally their vote to the right candidate. CHETRY: More of Carol Costello's must-see guide to dealing with problems at the polls.
You're watching the most news in the morning.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ROBERTS: Coming up now at 22 minutes after the hour, welcome back to the most news in the morning.
Polls open in Vermont right now and in less than an hour, several more states will open their polls for this historic election. Those states, Connecticut, Kentucky, Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Virginia and the battleground state, unusually enough, Indiana, this year.
CHETRY: Well, CNN is in Indiana, as well as every battleground state across the nation. Our reporters are following the issues that matter in the states that will make a difference, states that after a two-year fight will decide tonight who becomes your next president.
And one of those hotly contested states we're watching closely today is Ohio. Twenty electoral votes at stake, a must-win for John McCain. A must-win because no Republican has ever won the White House without carrying the state.
CNN's Mary Snow joins us now live from a polling station in Columbus.
And Mary, we know the polls are opening there in little over an hour. People in line to vote and a lot of the party (INAUDIBLE) and these local precincts are saying we're going to do everything possible to keep them in line even if it's a long wait today.
What's going on?
MARY SNOW, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Kiran, certainly, around Ohio, board of election officials are bracing for long lines. And this is because the state is expecting record turnout, 80 percent of Ohio's voters are expected to turn out and about a quarter of the voters voter early.
And, of course, we've been seeing those long lines over the last several days in Columbus where voters had to wait several hours to cast a ballot, but for the most part, people were in good spirits. And the enthusiasm outweighs the frustrations.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's my first time voting and hopefully it does make a difference.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: And this is the way it should be. We're here but it hasn't been. The first time I've ever seen so many people interested in an election.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SNOW: And Kiran, Ohio is going to be so closely watched. Four years ago, the nation waited on Ohio for its final results after it faced so many different problems. The state has undertaken a number of reforms. It helps - hopes will make things go smoothly today, but of course, those efforts are being put to the test and lawyers from campaign advocacy groups certainly watching this election very closely, and are poised to challenge anything that they see as suspicious or illegal activity -- Kiran?
CHETRY: You know, it was, after all, 120,000 votes that made the difference in that state in 2004 and gave the win to now President Bush.
Mary Snow, we'll be checking with you throughout the morning. Thanks.
ROBERTS: Another major state up for grabs, the battleground of Florida, 27 electoral votes there, 10 percent of what's needed to win the White House. In the state where yesterday Barack Obama drew nine times as many supporters at a rally than John McCain did.
CNN's John Zarrella is live at a polling station in West Palm Beach this morning.
John, what are you seeing there?
JOHN ZARRELLA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, John, it's pretty quiet. Just us and -- just us and the firemen here, so far. Of course, polls don't open until 7:00 a.m. Eastern Time.
Now Palm Beach County, of course, this is a pivotal area for Barack Obama and of course, we all remember, eight years ago, it was the focal point of the mess in Florida. In fact, here's the "Miami Herald," John, but not this morning's edition. That's the one from eight years ago, the final edition.
"Bush Wins It," and then the final-final edition that came out a little later, "Not Over Yet." So we're not sure what to expect. We know it's going to be close in Florida. Probably not that close.
But close in Florida, but don't know what to expect in terms of lines, because when it comes to early voting, 37 percent of Floridians either early voted or voted by absentee ballot. That's something in the order of 4.2 million people have already voted.
Now, and also, in Palm Beach County, for example, early voting, they only had 11 polling places open. Here, today, they're going to be somewhere in excess of 500 polling stations open.
And the other side of the coin, you also have no more hanging chads. We don't have to worry about the butterfly ballot. The entire state is going to optical scan machines. Now here in Palm Beach County, in the optimal scan machine, when the voters show up, what they have to is they have to connect the arrow from the tip of the arrow, draw a line to the back of the arrow.
In some of the counties, like the Broward County where I early voted, you just had to bubble it in. So there are some differences. The ballot is very long. Seven to eight pages in many places with all kinds of local issues and constitutional amendments on the ballot as well.
But again, this area, the southeast coastal line of Florida, pivotal for Barack Obama Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties, if he is to carry the state of Florida -- John?
ROBERTS: John, what fun is an election without a hanging chad, come on? John...
ZARRELLA: Exactly. Exactly.
ROBERTS: Good to see you this morning, John. Thanks.
We'll keep checking back with John Zarrella at Palm Beach there.
She's a left-leaning voice with a lot of right-leaning listeners. Ahead, we're going to check in with talk radio host, Pam Stone, about the critical fight for the battleground state of North Carolina.
You're watching the most politics in the morning on a special edition of AMERICAN MORNING this Tuesday, the 4th of November.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHETRY: Welcome back to the Most Politics in the Morning.
Barack Obama's aggressive ground organization in North Carolina could actually turn this red state blue. Our latest CNN Poll of Polls shows the state nearly tied. Barack Obama with a one-point advantage over John McCain.
It's 49-48 percent. Three percent still saying they're unsure.
And joining us now is Pam Stone, the host of WLNK's "The Pam Stone Show." She's a liberal talk radio host with plenty of conservative listeners.
And of course you're supporting Barack Obama.
I want to ask you about this early voting effort in your state. More than double the number of people that came out in 2004. So far, 2.5 million and counting.
Why has there been such enthusiasm for early voting?
PAM STONE, SYNDICATED COLUMNIST: Well, I think -- and by the way, good morning, Kiran. I've been (INAUDIBLE) ready to go. Well, I think the reason is, for the first time, so many people are inspired. And if you just look at -- I'm going to echo what everyone else has said, the ground game in North Carolina. You know, Obama, they've got 45 offices that they opened in North Carolina, as opposed to McCain's 30. So that's just more people on the street, more people campaigning, canvassing neighborhoods, and just hugely inspired for this turnout.
We've got people in early voting, standing in line five, six, 10 hours. And they ain't leaving.
CHETRY: Why is it so close right now? Why is it 48-49 in your state?
STONE: Well, I mean, I'm just so thrilled that this state is in play at all. It's like Indiana. You know, it's like, "Hello Ripley's?" Who would have thought?
I think because we have a candidate who has inspired not only the African-American vote, the youth vote, and, you know, people like me, average people. I have friends that are cradle conservatives, cradle conservatives -- executives, middle age white guys, that are voting Obama, first time in their life.
CHETRY: And I want to ask you about that as well, because you also have a really tight Senate race going on in your state that could affect the balance of power, meaning that if Democrats have a veto- proof majority, it could make a huge difference for what gets done in Washington. Elizabeth Dole's having a tough re-election fight. What's going on with that in your state? What are your listeners talking about?
STONE: Well, Elizabeth Dole made a huge, huge mistake with this last ad she did with -- the godless ad with Kay Hagan, because Kay Hagan of course has now launched a lawsuit for defamation of character. It's been proven that this was not a benefit fund-raiser for The Godless Group. And what it has done is it has just made Liddy Dole, who -- you know, there's two types of southern women, Kiran. You know, there's the southern women that are "Bless your heart," you know, and they're sweet and kind. And then there's southern women that are like, "Well, hey. I will cut you."
And that's how Liddy Dole is now coming across, as not genuine, doing anything to win. And people are so turned off with negative campaigning.
It's been said across the country people are sick of it, and that's exactly what's happened. I mean, she has, I think, shot herself in the foot with that ad. She has done herself no favors whatsoever.
CHETRY: All right. Pam Stone talking about what's going on with your listeners. Host of WLNK's "The Pam Stone Show."
Thanks so much for joining us this morning.
STONE: You're so welcome.
CHETRY: And stop with the Krispy Kremes. No more Krispy Kremes until the election is over.
STONE: I can't help myself. It's a law. It's a law.
CHETRY: Thanks, Pam.
STONE: You bet.
ROBERTS: That sugar high, it's a terrible thing.
Thirty-three minutes after the hour. It's after 5:00 a.m. here in the East Coast, and polls already open in the state of Vermont. Three electoral votes up for grabs there. In just about a half an hour, polls open in nine more states here in the East, including the battleground states of Indiana and Virginia.
And it wasn't just the tops of the tickets hitting the trail late last night. Both Joe Biden and Sarah Palin were out making one last push with voters. Joe Biden was in Philadelphia, in the battleground state of Pennsylvania. Sarah Palin was in Elko, Nevada.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOSEPH BIDEN (D-DE), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Now's the time we have to act. Barack Obama and I believe when the Congress goes back in November, we have to put a three-month moratorium on all housing foreclosures. We've got to stop it now.
And folks, I promise you one thing -- and South Philly and Philly understands this, and Barack Obama is all about it -- and that is, we'll embrace the single most enduring American belief that every generation before us has understood, and that is, we don't have to accept things the way they are. We can bend history to our own making!
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GOV. SARAH PALIN (R-AK), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: So just hours away, Elko, the time for choosing, it is so near.
Nevada, are you ready to help us carry your state to victory?
(APPLAUSE)
Are you ready to make John McCain the next president of the United States?
(APPLAUSE)
And are you ready to send us to Washington to shake things up and get to work for all of you?
(APPLAUSE)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: And our Brian Todd joins us live from Philadelphia this morning, where a record turnout is expected, and the Obama camp is behind a huge get-out-the-vote effort trying to win the blue collar vote in that battleground state.
And Brian, I guess it could be said that John McCain's fortunes in Pennsylvania really ride on the margins that Barack Obama can rack up there in Philadelphia and the surrounding counties.
BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: That's right, John. A relentless voter registration drive by Barack Obama. We're going to talk about that in a second. That's going to help him in this area.
We're here at the Overbrook Library, where long lines are expected like so many other places in Pennsylvania and elsewhere. We're going to show you through the window here they have eight electronic voting machines ready to go. They're under those canvas bags there.
In about an hour and a half, this polling station is going to open up. Officials here are going to get here pretty soon to throw open those canvas bags and get those machines going.
You know, the machines are going to be watched very, very closely in the state for a couple of reasons. Record turnout is one.
In the primaries, 35 of the city's 3,400 voting machines here in Philadelphia went down. So they're going to be watching these very closely.
State and federal officials are even jumping into the fray here to try to mitigate some of the problems. State officials are telling people here, look, don't come and vote during the prime voting hours. That means between 7:00 and 9:00 a.m., and maybe after 3:00 p.m.
They're urging people, you know, just be patient, try to get here in those midday hours. You'll probably have a shorter line. But if you're in a long line, hang in there and wait it out.
Also, a federal judge has told polling stations like this you have to paper ballots ready in case maybe half or more than half of a given precinct's voting machines go down. So they're going to have those ready.
But yes, voter registration was key here. Obama had a really relentless voter registration drive. We were at a place on Saturday, a phone bank, where his volunteers were getting out the vote. Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state by about a million, so Barack Obama very strong here in Philadelphia, and in Pittsburgh.
We're going to be watching this vote very closely.
ROBERTS: All right. Polls open at 7:00 this morning. Brian Todd for us this morning in Philadelphia.
Brian, thanks so much.
CHETRY: And we are watching out for your vote all day on this Election Day. If you see any problems at the polls, give us a call: 8770-GOCNN-08. It's our voter hotline. Again, 877-462-6608.
ROBERTS: Will one party control two branches of the government? We're going to look at the balance of power and the Republican push to stop Democratic dominance.
You're watching the most politics in the morning on this Tuesday, November 4th, Election Day.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JAY LENO, "THE TONIGHT SHOW WITH JAY LENO": The networks are playing it very, very cautiously. You know, they don't want to show any favoritism. In fact, MSNBC announced today they're not even going to declare Barack Obama the winner until after the votes are counted.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHETRY: To the most politics in the morning. We get our political panel right now of John Avlon, Patricia Murphy, Errol Louis, Frank Sesno, and Chrystia Freeland. It will be an all-out fight to get some words in this morning.
Thanks for being with us. And I want to thank all of you.
So, the conventional wisdom, of course, Jay Leno joked about it. But a lot of people feel that if we judge by the polls, Barack Obama has the easier road to victory. Let's just say that. That's a pretty safe bet.
What are some of the things that could happen that would throw conventional wisdom on its head this morning?
Let's start with you, Josh.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: If McCain pulls off Pennsylvania, that flips everything. He really needs that.
If Obama wins Virginia, Pennsylvania and Florida, he's having a good night. If he pulls out Indiana and North Carolina, that's a landslide.
Those are the things to look for.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think if you look at John McCain, if he can do better with women voters than he's been doing the last couple of weeks, he could start to bring those back. They're the majority of voters, women are, and right now Barack Obama has a huge advantage. If McCain can start to scale that back, he'll do better than he's expected to do.
CHETRY: This is also interesting. A lot of pundits are saying that this impossible to quantify X factor is the potency of Barack Obama's ground game. That he's done it differently and that, really, it's going to be a new model moving forward.
Frank and Errol, I want to ask you both about that. It's impossible to quantify right now, but how is it looking?
FRANK SESNO, CNN SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, certainly it's looking -- if you listen to what the Obama people are saying, at all levels the ground organization they've got, the number of field offices they've got -- I teach at the university -- the number of kids that they're bringing in to get people to show up, those are the things we've got to look at. Because what's on the line for Obama is, do you get these people out to vote, and do they stay there if the lines are two, three, four hours long?
ERROL LOUIS, COLUMNIST, "NEW YORK DAILY NEWS": And some of it is quantifiable. I mean, when you hear organizers have made, you know, 600,000 phone calls and then backed them up with door-to-door visits -- you know, in my radio audience I've heard from people who said that they've been out from New York to Pennsylvania four times in the last month spending entire days out there. It's really remarkable.
SESNO: I was speaking to an Obama person out in Colorado. They say they have more than 70 fully-staffed field offices. Seventy field offices in Colorado alone. That's a remarkable thing.
CHRYSTRIA FREELAND, U.S. MANAGING EDITOR, "FINANCIAL TIMES": And we've seen some of the data from early voting, right? So we already have seen that the ground game is changing and this electoral map has changed because people are voting who haven't voted before.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Right.
JOHN AVLON, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: That's the great news. I mean, we average 50 percent turnout in America, this election is going to be an historic high.
PATRICIA MURPHY, EDITOR, CITIZENJANEPOLITICS.COM: But the one state that we know doesn't have early voting is Pennsylvania. That is the completely unknown factor right now. Can McCain pull out those voters that were Hillary Clinton voters? That's what they're hoping to do.
CHETRY: And the other interesting thing -- I love this, when we talk about how much passion there is to wait in line, if that indeed is the case in Ohio. One of the Democratic Party chairs is saying, "We've hired every juggler, clown, balloon entertainer and marching band in the state of Ohio to keep people waiting in line to vote."
And Chrystia, let me ask you about this. Is there a passion gap with people that are supporting Barack Obama versus McCain? If it turns out that they're waiting in these long lines, will some people turn around and go home? FREELAND: You know, I actually don't think so. When I talk to McCain supporters, I think there are a lot who are also really passionate. And I do think that an interesting thing about this election, and really an inspiring thing, is it is a consequential moment for America and the world.
It really matters who America chooses and what the next president does. And I think partly powered by technology, you're seeing a national response.
SESNO: May I disagree with that this early in the morning?
CHETRY: Yes.
(LAUGHTER)
SESNO: I think there is a passion gap between these two campaigns. I think it's quite obvious when you look at the crowds and you look at what people say and do when they go and when they come from these things.
You know, there's something that Obama has connected with. It's his age, it's his background, it's his biracial character. And it's also having him stand up after the eight years that the country has been through the divisive times that we've been through saying it's not red and blue and all that kind of stuff. It's, you know, the United States of America.
CHETRY: All right.
SESNO: And it's cliched perhaps for him now, but it seems to be resonating.
CHETRY: And we are going to continue...
(CROSSTALK)
FREELAND: No, I'm just worried, because I think if Obama does win, you could find that some of the McCain supporters really find it hard to reconcile themselves to such a profoundly transformed America.
CHETRY: We'll have to see. But I want to thank all of you for being with us. We'll check in with you throughout the morning.
Thanks.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ROBERTS (voice-over): The balance of power. Will the Democrats end up controlling both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, or will a McCain administration be forced to deal with a divided Congress?
You're watching the most news in the morning.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ROBERTS: Forty-eight minutes after the hour now, and at 6:00 a.m. here on the East Coast nine more states will be opening their doors at voting precincts, including two critical battleground states, Indiana and Virginia. And watch for those results tonight from Virginia. It's one of the first states to close as well, and it could be a bellwether of how things are going to go.
In the final days of the race, the McCain campaign warns supporters the Democrats could win the White House and both chambers of Congress. That is a very scary thought for some Republicans.
Jim Acosta has been looking into that possibility for us, and he joins us bright and early this morning.
Good morning to you, Jim.
JIM ACOSTA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, John and Kiran.
It's scary, but it could happen. And if there's a theme for what's going to happen tonight, or possibly happen tonight, it is Republicans under attack. And that's why we want to take you over to the board over here, show you the balance of power as it stands now in Washington, D.C., in the Congress.
The House, 199 Republicans; 236 Democrats. Those are the seats held in the House.
In the Senate, 51 Democrats -- it's a slimmer majority there -- 49 for the Republicans. And one thing we're going to be watching overnight, three key races. There's actually a dozen or so key races, but there are three key races that we want to watch tonight, because there are 69 Senate seats in the House (sic), some 25, 30 seats -- excuse me, 69 seats in the Senate, 25 to 30 in the House that we're going to be watching at this point, because those are the potential gains for the Democrats as they try to gain seats in the Congress.
The Virginia race, two former governors running against each other, Mark Warner versus Jim Gilmore. Mark Warner is heavily favored in this race. And the Democrats owe a lot to Mark Warner.
Just a few years ago, when he became governor of Virginia, before he ran for the Senate, he showed Democrats how to win in the South. And the Democrats have picked up that blueprint and run with it in this general election campaign.
In Kentucky, Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader, under fire in Kentucky. Bruce Lunsford, a businessman there, started a chain of hospital operating companies that operate in Kentucky, he's been very successful. He's picked up the endorsements of a couple of big newspapers in Kentucky, and he's also, most importantly, had the Clintons campaigning for him in Kentucky. They would very much like to knock off Mitch McConnell in the Bluegrass State.
And then moving down to North Carolina, Elizabeth Dole, two cabinet secretary terms under her belt. And also the wife of former presidential candidate Bob Dole. She is in serious trouble in North Carolina, running against Kay Hagan, who was really thought to have no chance at this seat six months ago. But this race has tightened considerably. It's pretty much mirroring what is happening across the country. And a big African-American turnout in North Carolina could definitely benefit Kay Hagan.
A lot of people are watching this race now, obviously, because of the ads in the remaining days of this campaign. Elizabeth Dole ran a very controversial ad accusing Kay Hagan of accepting money from atheists, and that did not go over well in North Carolina.
So, guys, as we're looking at the balance of power this morning, we're going to be keeping our eyes on these seats in the Senate and the House, because if Barack Obama somehow meets these estimates and wins the White House, if he could pick up a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, which is very possible, with 60 seats in the Senate, and pick up big gains in the House, the Democrats will definitely have an opportunity to put their stamp on Washington, D.C. -- John and Kiran.
ROBERTS: And there's some very prominent Democrats like Bob Kerrey who were suggesting that, for the president, that might not be such a good thing.
ACOSTA: There is such a thing as overreach, and it is a danger for the Democrats. They've been there before.
ROBERTS: All right.
Jim, thanks so much for that.
ACOSTA: You bet.
ROBERTS: Eight minutes now to the top of the hour.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MCCAIN: You've got to volunteer. You've got to knock on doors. You've got to get your neighbors to the polls.
I need your vote. We need to bring real change to Washington. And we have to fight for it.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: John McCain yesterday.
And in a matter of about three and a half minutes, polls will be open in Virginia, a key battleground state. It has not voted for a Democrat in 44 years. That might change today.
CNN's final Poll of Polls in Virginia has Barack Obama leading John McCain by five points, 50-45 percent. And joining us this morning from Richmond, Virginia, radio host Doc Thompson. He does "Afternoon Drive" on WRVA in Richmond, and he's outside a polling place this morning.
Doc, what's the scene like there?
DOC THOMPSON, WRVA RADIO HOST: John, well, first of all, we made it. Can you believe it? We're here. If we can make it one more day, we're good.
I don't know if you can see. The line goes all the way back behind the polling place. It's a couple of hundred people.
They started lining up at 4:00 a.m. I figured lining up at 4:00 a.m. for a two-hour wait until the polls open is better than six or seven the rest of the day.
ROBERTS: Yes. But still, that's an awful long wait. I guess they had some early voting there in the form of in-person absentee balloting, but, you know, that only brought up a few hundred thousand people. But there are millions of more who are waiting to vote there this morning.
Hey, John McCain had a rally...
THOMPSON: That's still 10 percent though.
ROBERTS: It is, yes. That's a lot of folks.
THOMPSON: Yes. Yes.
ROBERTS: John McCain had a rally in Blountville, Tennessee, yesterday, just across the southern border from Virginia. Let's listen to a little bit of what he said yesterday.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MCCAIN: We're going to win this election tomorrow in Virginia. And we're going to keep Virginia red.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: So, Doc, he says he's going to keep Virginia red. As we said at the top of this, the poll split there is five. Barack Obama has been out in front for quite a while now.
Can McCain pull it off there?
THOMPSON: He has certainly closed the gap. I think Obama still has the edge, but I think Virginia is the state to watch. And I think Richmond is the area to watch. It's the best crosscut of the state.
And it closes -- the polls in Virginia close at 7:00. So Virginia, Indiana and Georgia, the first closing polls. I think you pay attention to Virginia and you pay attention to Richmond to see how it's going. ROBERTS: What about the southeastern part of the state down there, Hampton Roads, Newport News, Norfolk, Virginia Beach? That's an area that, for the most part, you know, with the exception of small pockets in Newport News, has been Republican. But our last poll had Barack Obama leading in that area.
If you were to poll out wins down there in the southeastern part of the state, would that give him a pretty easy path to picking (ph) out the commonwealth?
THOMPSON: Yes, that's not going to look too good for John McCain if he starts pulling out huge numbers there.
I think the other is to watch -- and I'm from Ohio. Ohio's always close, but I think McCain has a real shot at pulling off Florida and Pennsylvania as well. I think those are his telltale states.
ROBERTS: As we said, a little bit of early voting in the form of that in-person absentee, but 500,000 new voters have been registered since 2004. We saw that NAACP suit against Virginia that was dropped. They said that the state wasn't going to be ready.
Are people expecting problems there? I mean, what are your listeners telling you?
THOMPSON: Yes. First of all, my listeners, we talked about this for a couple of days. They're worried about riots all across the country, whether Barack Obama wins, because it will be the celebration of something that has never happened, or if he loses, the thought that he could have stolen the election. So they're a little bit worried about that.
And then all the divisiveness at any of these polling places. Anybody could say something wrong and somebody else could get in their face, and then the whole thing blows up. That's what they're most concerned about.
ROBERTS: Wow. A hotly-contested election, no question about it. And tensions and emotions running high on both sides.
Doc, you can get in there and vote in 20 seconds. So we'll let you get there. Thanks, buddy. Good to see you again.
THOMPSON: Did you cast yours?
ROBERTS: The absentee thing was my route, yes.
THOMPSON: All right. Good deal. Thanks, John.
ROBERTS: Doc, thanks so much -- Kiran.
CHETRY: That's right. You haven't been in your home state and you don't know when you're getting back.
ROBERTS: It's been a while.
