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Haiti's Recovery Efforts Continue; President to Focus on Economy; Osama Bin Laden Associates Himself With Christmas Day Attack; New Bin Laden Tape Threatens More Attacks Against U.S.; How Big is the Stimulus; Tracking How Charities Spend Your Money

Aired January 25, 2010 - 06:59   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

JOHN ROBERTS, CNN ANCHOR: Good Monday to you. Thanks for joining us on the Most News in the Morning on this January the 25th. I'm John Roberts.

KIRAN CHETRY, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Kiran Chetry. Glad you're with us. We have many big stories we'll be breaking down for you in the next 15 minutes.

First to Haiti where rescue efforts have been called off almost two weeks after the earthquake, but the country is still marveling over the survival of one man. He was buried for 11 days beneath a hotel store. You have to see the video of his rescue. We're live in Port-au-Prince with the incredible story.

ROBERTS: President Obama facing a new political reality as he gets ready to make his first State of the Union Address on Wednesday. He's taking a tougher tone on the economy, vowing to fight for jobs. We're live at the White House where the focus is back on issue number one.

CHETRY: And we're taking the $787 billion stimulus plan head on with CNN's stimulus project. It's designed to hold Washington accountable for just how the billions of your tax dollars were spent. We're going to tell you who the stimulus is helping and who abused the program.

ROBERTS: This morning, Haiti declaring an end to the search for survivors. The government puts the death toll from the 7.0 earthquake nearly two weeks ago at 150,000, and that's just in the capital and the surrounding area. Right now, Port-au-Prince is a city on the move. An estimated 200,000 people have left the capital and are making their way into the countryside, and this morning, another amazing story of survival. These pictures from Saturday show a man climbing through an opening in the rubble. He worked at a market in a hotel and survived on soda, beer, and cookies for 11 days.

CHETRY: Just amazing. He looks fine. For being under ground for 11 days, it doesn't look like he has a scratch on him.

ROBERTS: It's pretty incredible.

CHETRY: It really is. ROBERTS: And this morning our chief international correspondent Christiane Amanpour as well as our chief medical correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta are both live in Port-au-Prince. Good morning to both of you.

Christiane, let me start with you, because we've been talking about Haiti here from the states up until now. Now you're there in country. What are your impressions now that you're on the ground?

CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, clearly the emergency phase is still in full swing. It's true the official rescues have perhaps been called off. But frankly many of the international rescue crews are still being called out when there's a chance that there might be somebody alive under the rubble.

Because of the miraculous rescue of that man on Saturday night, there are not giving up. I mean, hope diminishes with each day, but this is not completely stopped. So they may even pull more people out. I think that is something that really gives so much hope not just to the city but to the people.

This Sunday we saw mass and religious services in Port-au-Prince and elsewhere. This is an incredibly religious country. So many of them were not just mourning the family and friends who they lost, but giving thanks for the survival of their friends who made it through and for the resilience and resolve they have shown throughout this incredible crisis.

And at the same time the aid pipeline is gradual widening and the food and water is gradually getting out more and more to the people who need it. Still not perfect, but it is slowly, slowly being organized into a much more organized distribution.

ROBERTS: Sanjay, you've been there since the day after the earthquake, you showed us last week the dire need. You've actually shown us several times the dire need for medical treatment, medical supplies. You even went to the airport to get some yourself. Has the situation progressed at all over the last couple of days?

DR. SANJAY GUPTA, CNN CHIEF MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, there's no question it has improved. As Christiane was talking about, specifically with basic supplies as well, we see a lot of these distribution stations around the city. In the beginning there were just a few, and now there's several hundred. People were able to get water and certainly food as well.

Medical supplies have improved as well. It's not perfect but it's certainly improved. People are able to conduct these operations and give the appropriate medications -- antibiotics, painkillers, things like that afterward.

But what's a little bit striking to me and I think sometimes happens in the aftermath of a natural disaster is still the lack of coordination. For example, there is this concern that in fact some hospitals have too many surgeons, people literally stepping over each other, leading to inefficiencies in the system, redundancies of work. And still in some of the outlying areas there's not enough doctors. So they're talking about creating mobile units to try and leave Port-au-Prince and go to other places like Laogan (ph) where they haven't seen a lot of care up until now.

Also there's starting to be some thought about the next stage -- chronic nursing care, rehabilitation for people who have had amputations, for example, and also prosthetics. If you don't have a leg here in Port-au-Prince and you have no resources, you can't get around, I mean, that is very tough if not a death sentence.

So these are things people are thinking about.

CHETRY: And, Christiane, we also talked about, as Sanjay just mentioned, looking ahead in terms of the long-term and what's next. We showed video earlier of what appears to be this mass exodus out of Port-au-Prince. What are, you know, you seeing in terms of any plans to get that city cleared of the rubble to start some of the rebuilding and eventually have former residents be able to come back home?

AMAPOUR: Well, several things. First of all, the U.N. is very conscious that they need to put people to work. That's part of what will keep the security, just paying people so they can keep body and soul together.

So one of their plans is to pay people $3 a day. It might not sound much but it's more than the $1 a day most people exist on, to start collecting rubble and get it out of the streets.

And at the same time, what they want is for people to get out of the town and go to see family and stay with family who may be better able to withstand what's happening. So yes, we're seeing people on buses, on bicycles, on motorbikes, in cars, whichever way they can to get out of this city.

And I think it is important to say that it is not all of Haiti that's been destroyed. It is significant parts of this capital city, it's Jacmel, or parts of Jacmel, which I'll have a report on later in the day on the southern Caribbean coast. It's Laogan (ph), which is close to Jacmel. And so it's that area most affected. So people are moving out.

Of course, many people would like to leave the country altogether, so we're also saying long lines by the immigration offices, by the passport offices, people camping out by the U.S. embassy, the Canadian embassy. But at the same time the United States has made it clear in radio broadcasts, in aerial broadcasts showing the C-130s, that they are not accepting illegals to enter the United States.

So without a visa Haitians are being told, do not come. You will be repatriated. Which sounds harsh, but that's what the United States is saying. For one they don't want people to perish on the high seas.

ROBERTS: They are at a real transition point here in the aftermath of the earthquake. Christiane Amanpour, Dr. Sanjay Gupta, great to catch up with you this morning, thanks.

CHETRY: The Obama administration is now refocusing on what has been issue number one all along, and that's the economy. The White House says that the president's first state of the union address on Wednesday night will be all about putting the middle class back to work.

Now, many critics are saying he took his eye off the ball for too long and that last week's special election in Massachusetts, where a Republican took a seat that was long held by Senator Ted Kennedy, was a wake-up call.

Suzanne Malveaux live for us at the White House this morning. And how much of this may be reactionary and how much are they sort of sticking to where they were going to go before this?

SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Kiran, it really is a combination of both of those things. It's a very good point, because the president as well as his team are trying to regroup now after what was arguably the worst week of the Obama presidency.

And we saw top advisers fan out on those political shows just yesterday to try to make the case here that the president gets it, he understands the American people, their number one issue is dealing with the economy and creating jobs, that that is something he is paying attention to, and it's going to be the focus, the centerpiece, Kiran, of the state of the union address on Wednesday.

At the same time, they're also trying to demonstrate that, look, the president has not necessarily been lackluster when it comes to focusing on the economy. What do they do? They point to the $787 billion economic stimulus package. That is something that we are looking at extensively to see where the money goes and how is it being used.

We heard advisers this weekend talking about jobs saved or created, but when you take a listen, Kiran, to the advisers and how they put these numbers, it's very clear that it's hard to be consistent and it's hard to even measure the progress this administration has made. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

VALERIE JARRETT, WHITE HOUSE SENIOR ADVISOR: The recovery act saved thousands and thousands of jobs.

ROBERT GIBBS, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: We finally saw the first positive economic job growth in more than a year, largely as a result of the recovery plan that's put money back into our economy, that saved or created 1.5 million jobs.

DAVID AXELROD, WHITE HOUSE SENIOR ADVISOR: The recovery act the president passed has created more than -- or saved more than 2 million jobs.

(END VIDEO CLIP) MALVEAUX: So, Kiran, you can hear these numbers really, and sometimes it sounds like apples and oranges, sometimes it sounds like all over the place.

I spoke with two of the three advisers that we just saw there on tape last week, and they say that, look, they're trying to hone the president's message to make it clear. Obviously, they have more work to do.

They have brought in David Plouffe. He was at the centerpiece of the successful Obama campaign. They're certainly hoping that delivering that message and moving forward he is going to help perhaps convince folks that the Democrats are on top of this, the administration is on top of this, and they don't lose too many seats in the midterm elections as a result of all this confusion. Kiran?

CHETRY: All right, Suzanne Malveaux live for us at White House this morning. Thanks so much.

Also coming up at 7:30 eastern, in just about 22 minutes, Bob Shrum and David Drum will be joining us, both former speech writers, both with very different takes. And they're going to be talking about the tone the president should take in the state of the union and the challenges that he must address.

ROBERTS: Let's look at other stories new this morning. Right now rescue teams are braving violent weather searching the Mediterranean Sea after an Ethiopian airliner crashed with 90 people on board. The Boeing 737 reportedly went down in flames minutes after taking off from Lebanon early this morning.

And 23 bodies have been recovered, and so far authorities say they do not suspect foul play.

CHETRY: Also, not on the president's to-do list, jury duty. The president was supposed to report to a Chicago suburb courthouse today. The White House says he notified the court weeks ago he wouldn't be there. The summons was mailed to the first family's home on Chicago's south side.

ROBERTS: An original Picasso will have to be repaired after a woman -- listen to this -- visiting the Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York fell on it and tore a hole in it. The painting, called "The Actor," is estimated to be worth more than $130 million. MOMA says it will be fixed and ready in time for the Picasso exhibition in April.

CHETRY: Why wouldn't they have that encased in glass or protected in some way? It's just sitting there on the canvas?

ROBERTS: I don't know. It's pretty bizarre.

CHETRY: For klutzy museum-goers to trip into?

ROBERTS: Can I just say something though. There was an error there. It wasn't the MOMA, it was the Metropolitan, the Met. So it's just amazing. Can you imagine? Oops, I ripped a Picasso. (LAUGHTER)

CHETRY: That's an embarrassment, and an expensive one at that.

Well, still ahead on the Most News in the Morning, was Osama bin Laden behind the Christmas Day attempted bombing? We're going to be talking to Fran Townsend and Peter Bergen about this claim of responsibility and what it really means in the larger war on terror.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ROBERTS: It's 11 minutes after the hour. Welcome back to the Most News in the Morning.

Was Osama bin Laden behind the failed attempt to blow up a U.S. airliner on Christmas Day? A new audio message said to be from bin Laden suggests that he was, and he threatened more attacks against the United States.

Joining us now from Washington to break this all down this morning, Fran Townsend, our CNN national security contributor and former homeland security adviser under President George W. Bush, and Peter Bergen, CNN national security analyst, and the author of "The Osama bin Laden I Know."

Peter, start us off here. If this is bin Laden, what does it say to you that he claimed responsibility for this, and the timing of the audio message as well?

PETER BERGEN, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: Well, first of all, it's a proof of life, one of many we've had from him in recent years.

Secondly, it took about four weeks for him to get this out. It indicates that he -- that this falls into about the time range of most of his other tapes, which have taken about three weeks to get out. It takes a long time from where he is hidden in the middle of the frontier of Pakistan, a series of couriers getting these tapes to outlets like Al Jazeera.

I'm not sure he clearly took direct responsibility. He praised the attacks. He didn't I was responsible. Clearly he wants to associate himself. And Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula after all is a group that has sworn allegiance to bin Laden and sees him as their leader.

ROBERTS: Fran, do the intelligence agencies have any indicated that bin Laden even knew about this attack before it took place? Has there been any communication between Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula in Yemen and where bin Laden is suspected to be?

FRANCES FRAGOS TOWNSEND, FORMER BUSH HOMELAND SECURITY ADVISER: Well, John, you know that's the kind of very sensitive intelligence they haven't said and we wouldn't know. But I will tell you that it shouldn't be surprising to us that bin Laden would want to associate himself, even with the failed attempt on Christmas Day. He wants to be relevant. He continues to be a source of fundraising, recruitment, and inspiration for these like-minded affiliates.

And as John Brennan said, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is the closest affiliate to the core of Al Qaeda, bin Laden and his chief lieutenants. And so it's not really surprising that he'd want to be associated with it.

ROBERTS: Do you agree Peter? Could this be used as a recruiting tool even though Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab failed in his mission, if bin Laden holds him up and says he was a hero for the cause, will that draw other people to it?

BERGEN: I think the fact that bin Laden associated himself with the attack, they think it's a success. I think that we know that Umar Farouk will not be the only person who tries to do this. They had already tried to do this in a failed assassination attempt against a senior Saudi official.

And this modus operandi, just by the law of averages, will work in some context at some time in the future, and it's clearly going to be an Al Qaeda signature going forward.

ROBERTS: Fran, in terms of what was behind this attack, Al Qaeda in the Arabian peninsula said it was in response to U.S. attacks against Al Qaeda positions in Yemen, I guess mid-December or so, maybe early December.

And bin Laden says it's because of the U.S.'s support for Israel and the plight of the Palestinian people. There's a bit of a disconnect there.

TOWNSEND: Bin Laden pointing to the plight of the Palestinian people is on its face not credible. This is an individual who originally said he was targeting the U.S. because we had troops in Saudi Arabia, the land of the two holy mosques, as bin Laden would refer to it.

And we no longer have troops there have troops there. And we still had the Christmas Day attempt and the many disrupted plots that we've seen. And so while pointing to the Palestinians resonates in the larger Arab world, I think one has to question his sincerity to point to that now.

ROBERTS: You know, Peter, when the intelligence agencies look at this, they look at chatter that's out there. They look at, you know, credible intelligence that another attack may be in the planning stages.

Abdulmutallab warned of other attacks to come. The U.K. has raised its terror alert level there. Now this tape comes out. Foreign Secretary David Miliband from the U.K. says that this could be an indication that more attacks are plotted. Do you believe that this could be an indication that there are some other things out there that we may see manifest themselves very soon?

BERGEN: I think this is the 33rd tape that bin Laden has released since 9/11 and obviously there haven't been 33 incidents associated with Al Qaeda Central since then. So I would be careful about saying that a particular tape is going to be associated with a particular incident. Before 9/11 when bin Laden would release a tape very infrequently, there was a strong correlation but I don't think there is now.

ROBERTS: And, Fran, what about America's response to this now that bin Laden has weighed in? After the attempted attack, the U.S. was helping Yemen to a greater degree go after Al Qaeda. We heard from General David Petraeus on this whole thing. But now that bin Laden has weighed in saying I support it, I'm urging more attacks, does that give the U.S. more cause to go after Al Qaeda elements in Pakistan where it's believed that bin Laden is hiding?

TOWNSEND: Well, John, I think most U.S. officials currently in the counterterrorism community would say to you, whether or not bin Laden releases a tape doesn't move our counterterrorism policy, whether there's a Republican or a Democratic administration. His statements really aren't that big a deal inside the policy community that has to execute the war.

And so I think what you'll see is this administration has upped the number of drone attacks in the tribal areas. They've increased the support to Yemen in their counterterrorism capability. I think you're going to continue to see that, and I don't expect that bin Laden's statement is going to move them one way or the other, nor should it.

ROBERTS: All right. Fran Townsend, Peter Bergen, as always, great to see you this morning. Thanks for coming in.

TOWNSEND: Good to be with you.

ROBERTS: It's now 17 minutes after the hour.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHETRY: It's 20 minutes past the hour right now. Welcome back to the Most News in the Morning.

We are talking right now with Christine Romans, who's "Minding Your Business" this morning, all about the stimulus. Where did your money go?

CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: And it's still going because not all of it is out the door yet, right?

CHETRY: Right.

ROMANS: So this is the biggest undertaking in American history in terms of how much money you're spending in such a short amount of time. $787 billion is what Congress passed last February and that's meant to be spent over two years.

The Iraq war to date? Almost $600 billion. The new deal? $500 billion. The Marshall plan to rebuild Europe, to rebuild Europe, $115 billion. These are inflation adjusted numbers. This is meant to show you just how big this whole project is.

Let's break it down and show you where the money is going because it's incredibly diverse. It's not just highway projects and it's not just $25 in your unemployment checks.

Tax benefits, by far, the biggest single outlay, $288 billion. Loans and grants, this is like billions for states to plug their budget holes, all kinds of things. $275 billion. They're entitlements. These are like -- gosh, this is everything from food stamps to more unemployment benefits and the like. All of that there, $224 billion.

Now, not all of it's spent. About $265 billion has been paid out, $522 billion remain. Critics will say they're not getting the money out fast enough. It was designed to be time released, and the first phase is almost over. That was the rescue phase. That was things like food stamps, Medicaid, filling budget gaps so that teachers stay on the job, so that firefighters and police officers stay on the job, and in saving jobs.

Now, this is -- some people have really criticized phase one of the rescue because they didn't necessarily see anything change in their neighborhood. You can't really feel a negative, what would have been a negative.

Phase two starting right now. Infrastructure, construction and research, high-speed rail, projects that were shovel-ready on the books of states' Department of Transportation, that now they've got the funding, they can go and fix the bridge, or fix the road, or whatever you -- whatever you may --

ROBERTS: The remaining $552 billion, has it all been allocated yet?

ROMANS: Much of it has been allocated and that's been a very tricky process. That's why the shovel-ready projects have been so such a boon. But when you think of this project, a lot of people think of the ARRA, American Recovery Reconstruction Investment Act, that you see in your town...

ROBERTS: Right.

ROMANS: ... next to a bridge or something. That's a very small part of it. There's a lot of other things dividing up tax relief in particular.

CHETRY: Very interesting, and you have a numeral for us today as well.

ROMANS: I do. It's $154 billion. And this is my numeral to show you it isn't over.

CHETRY: This is how much left is to be spent?

ROMANS: No, this is how much the Senate is considering spending for what? Republicans call the set of stimulus, what others would call targeted stimulus. But this is something that Congress could still be working in days ahead for more kinds of programs like this. $154 billion is what the Senate is looking at on top of the 787 --

CHETRY: It's interesting. In all that's happening at times, as you pointed out, before that they have to try to unwind themselves to throw government from the housing situation right now

ROMANS: Right.

CHETRY: And the super, super low interest loans.

ROMANS: You're not going to hear anybody in Congress talk about stimulus for that $154 billion but that is essentially what it is.

ROBERTS: It's a bad word in Washington now.

ROMANS: Right.

ROBERTS: Christine, thanks so much.

You can track the money yourself, by the way, go where did it all go, who is it helping, who has abused the program. Check out CNN.com/stimulus. It's our special stimulus project.

CHETRY: And tomorrow on AMERICAN MORNING, we're going to show you some of the good news from the stimulus money. One family says that they have food on their table because of it.

ROBERTS: Later tonight on "CAMPBELL BROWN" at 8:00 p.m. Eastern, find out why some residents of Montana think their state has made a double fault with their tax dollars.

CHETRY: And at 10:00 p.m. Eastern, "AC 360" investigates why stimulus money is going to so many companies that have a history of breaking the law. The stimulus project, it's all this week starting right here at 6:00 a.m. Eastern.

ROBERTS: Still ahead on the Most News in the Morning, when you donate to a charity, where does your money really go? Stephanie Elam takes a closer look at what it takes to run a charity.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ROBERTS: Twenty-six minutes after the hour, that means it's time for an "A.M. Original," something that you'll only see on AMERICAN MORNING.

Friday night's star-studded "Hope for Haiti" telethon raised a record-breaking $58 million according to organizers and more money is still coming in. That doesn't even include the "Hope for Haiti Now" now album, a compilation of the night's music. It was number one on iTunes on 18 countries on Saturday.

CHETRY: And so a huge success but many times it's hard to find out whether the money that you give is going to the right place or where it's going at all. Even some of the most reputable charities have come under fire, for example after Hurricane Katrina and during this disaster in Haiti. A lot of times raising money is big business in itself.

Stephanie Elam is looking into ways that charities do business and why some run into trouble. I mean, you know, all this money pouring in at once, finding out if it's going to the right place is a totally different challenge.

STEPHANIE ELAM, CNN BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Yes. And, you know, you look at the pictures that we've been seeing out of Haiti and so many of us have been moved to donate. You just can't believe the situation that they're living through. But the question everyone has is, would it really be possible for 100 percent of our donations to go to a charity or cause to just get out there to exactly where we want them to go? Well, we dug into the numbers to find out.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ELAM (voice-over): Charities exist to help those in need, but sometimes questions arise about how much of the donated money goes to overhead. The cost of running a business.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I don't know how you can avoid overhead. There are expenses.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm a little skeptical just with what I've been reading about what some of the organizations are doing with the money.

ELAM: Independent charity evaluator GiveWell.net says overhead is a necessary thing.

HOLDEN KARNOFSKY, CO-FOUNDER, GIVEWELL.NET: People should not be looking for zero percent overhead. There is this mentality of saying I want all my money going straight to the children. And as a result, a lot of the charities may not be spending the money they need to spend to figure out how their programs are going and to evaluate their work.

ELAM: Richard Walden, who founded International Disaster Relief Agency Operation USA agrees, to a point.

RICHARD WALDEN, PRESIDENT, OPERATIONUSA.ORG: Well, they need some overhead or they would never raise any money. So when it starts getting over 15 percent, you start to worry.

ELAM: Charitynavigator.org, another firm that evaluates charities, finds of the 5,500 organizations it examines, about 15 percent of donations go to overhead costs. However, GiveWell says tracking how a charity spends its money isn't the easiest thing to figure out.

KARNOFSKY: Finding out if a charity helped kids do better in school or save lives is very hard work, and that's why for a long time people have focused on this overheard number. It's not because it's the most meaningful number, it's because it's the easiest number to get.

ELAM: And when it comes to size, Walden says smaller charities are often more nimble, able to respond quicker than larger ones.

WALDEN: This whole notion that only the big agencies can do a meaningful job is simply not true, and it's never been proven out.

ELAM: So in choosing a charity, perhaps asking about overhead shouldn't be the primary question.

KARNOFSKY: Ask the much more important question. What did you accomplish? Whom did you help? How did you change the world and how much did it cost? Because when you know the answer to that question it doesn't really matter how much they spent on overhead.

ELAM: In the end after all, it should be about helping those in need.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ELAM: Now, if a charity does say it gives 100 percent of your donations to help the cause, the Better Business Bureau says think twice about donating to that charity. All charities have operating costs. That's just the act of doing business. The only way you can guarantee all of your money goes to help someone if you were to physically able, take your money and march it down to a disaster area with your crisp dollars in your hand and give them out.

Of course, that's not very feasible. Nor is it better than using a charity that is established action plans to get aid where it needs to go quickly. And this is one of the things that they keep pointing out, too. When you listen to them, is that when I talked to the people who evaluate charities, they're saying they need money all the time and if they have money all the time, they're able to go out and help people more quickly when something happens. But overall, you shouldn't expect that. You shouldn't expect that all 100 percent of your dollars would go there, but that's not a bad thing.

CHETRY: Good stuff, Stephanie. Thanks so much.

ELAM: Sure.

CHETRY: Well, now, it's half past the hour, a look at our top stories. An Ethiopian airliner with 90 people on board crashed into the Mediterranean Sea early this morning. Twenty-three bodies have been recovered. Crews say they have found no survivors. The plane went down shortly after taking off in stormy weather from the airport in Beirut, Lebanon.

ROBERTS: U.S. intelligence officials are analyzing a new audiotape said to be from Osama Bin Laden. In the message, Bin Laden claims responsibility for the attempted bombing of an airliner over Detroit on Christmas day and warns of more attacks ahead in American soil.

CHETRY: Also big news that could impact the balance of power in Washington. Another Democrat, Arkansas Congressman Marion Berry is expected to announce his retirement this morning. Some political analysts are saying that it could be the first in a flood of retirements after the special election loss in Massachusetts last week.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MARK PRESTON, CNN POLITICAL EDITOR: He is the 12th democrat now in the 2010 election cycle who has decided that, you know something? They're going to pack it up, who does not want to run for re-election. Now, I should say that on the other side of the aisle, Republicans have 14 retirements.

And when you talk to Democrats, they say you know, we're not the only ones losing members. But still a major blow for Democrats right now who are really trying to head off any kind of rush for the door from any of these conservative democrats who are looking to get out.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHETRY: Berry is a conservative blue-dog Democrat and he is serving his seventh term right now in the House.

Well, President Obama is facing a new political reality as he gets ready to make his first state of the union address, health care, an issue that cost him a lot of political capital is now on life support. And many critics say that he took his eye off the ball when it comes to the economy and creating jobs.

There's a new CNN poll saying most Americans now oppose the stimulus. Here now to talk about what we can expect in the speech, Democratic strategist Robert Shrum joins me here and also former -- in Washington former Bush speech writer, David Frum. Thanks to both you for being with us this morning.

Let me start with you Bob, so the administration delayed the "State of the Union" address hoping that health care would pass or at least move forward enough that it could be something that could be touted in the speech. Now it appears that's not going to happen. How does the president gain back control and reframe the message Wednesday night?

ROBERT SHRUM, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: First of all, let me say that it's a good year not to be a Democratic strategist, which I'm not anymore. I quit. It's a good year to be a professor at NYU and talk about this on television. The president faces a fundamental choice.

Is he going to move forward as a leader for change, focusing on the economy, talking to people in a way that makes them believe that he really has their interest at heart, but without giving up on his fundamental objectives, or is he going to move to a bite-size presidency? I think we'll see that on Wednesday night. I don't know the answer to it.

CHETRY: And, David, some advisers, as Bob is bringing up, have called for toughening the tone. Maybe portraying himself less as a unifier but more as a fighter. You saw the resurgence of campaign (INAUDIBLE) David Pluff. He is now in the game again, how do you think this new strategy is going to work for President Obama?

DAVID FRUM, FMR. BUSH SPEECHWRITER: Well, I would agree with Bob that he has a choice. It's the choice of being president of the country or leader of a party. Obama is not a fighter. He's a conciliator. That is -- that was his unique selling proposition. And as a fighter he's unbelievable. Also as a fighter he's got a proven record of nonsuccess.

He needs to resurrect what it was that so many people, including many Republicans and independents, liked about him which is he was a big and generous figure. If he picks a series of petty fights with the banks, it's unbelievable after what he's done to help them, if he continues with this very divisive approach to health care, that is going to be crippling to him.

CHETRY: Well, let me ask you about that, Bob. We have polls showing that the number one concern for people is still jobs.

SHRUM: Right.

CHETRY: Yet it really hasn't been front and center lately, at least, in what the discourse has been. We've been talking a ton about the procedural aspects of getting health care passed. I mean, can we get Olympia Snowe on board, will this work, will this not work.

Here's a look at the polling we just did, the economic stimulus bill, 42 percent favor it now, 56 percent oppose it. And this has changed dramatically since it was first introduced. How does he get the focus back on jobs?

SHRUM: You know, he's not going to get better in terms of public opinion until jobs are actually being created. The fact of the matter is Ronald Reagan faced this in 1982. Reagan had a situation where his popularity bottomed out at 35 percent. Reaganomics was massively unpopular and he never gave up. He kept right on going. And he rode the economic recovery up to not only personal victory but ideological vindication.

I couldn't disagree with David more. If he walks away from health care, the Democratic party is in serious difficulty. We're going to see the country wait another 10 or 15 years before there's action on an issue, which could not only cripple our economy but which involves a fundamental unfairness to tens of millions of people.

CHETRY: Well, David, is he going back in campaign mode now? What is the Republican role in this? There was, you know, a big boost, obviously, from what we saw happened in Massachusetts, but what next?

FRUM: I'm not telling the president to walk away from health care at all. I agree with Bob. For the Democrats to give up on this now would be Jonestown for them. But what he has done -- the president has taken a very particular approach to health care. He's made universality his number one priority, not cost control. He has not worked with Republicans, he has not worked with many of the free market economists who have developed this idea, and he hasn't underscored, by the way, a point that he ought to be making, which is many of the best ideas in the plan are Republican ideas, that Mitt Romney was the pioneer of them.

And he should be embracing his opponents. That is where Obama is at his best, is when he puts his arms around them and defies them to wriggle away. He is just going to be unbelievable that way, if he tries to do a -- not a John Edwards, that is so unbelievable. Go up there and say I'm fighting for you, you know, he is not part of us. He is very much from the top down, not the inside out.

CHETRY: I understand what you guys are saying politically speaking about walking away from health care, and you wrote about it in your column. You said that it would basically re-enforce all the misconceptions that the critics painted about health care. But the bottom line is when you ask people what their concerns are, it's put me back to work, get the economy working again. So how much more time?

SHRUM: A speech isn't going to fix that.

CHETRY: Right. But how -- what about the focus?

SHRUM: A speech can't make people -- a speech can't make people believe that he's going to do the jobs thing. Only the creation of jobs is going to reassure people. On health care, he has to understand, and this is someone I don't normally quote or cite, what George W. Bush understood with his prescription drug benefit under Medicare.

It was very unpopular when it was passed. People had all sorts of objections. Said go back to the drawing board. He pushed it through, and today no one would dare push it, it's so popular. If you get the health care bill passed, instead of focusing on all of the scare stories that come from Sarah and Rush, who are the Harry and Louise of this year, by the way, instead of focusing on all those scare stories people actually begin to see the benefits and it becomes popular.

As jobs get created the president is going to get credit for the recovery just as Ronald Reagan got credited in late 1983 and 1984.

CHETRY: All right. So should he bring up health care, and make it a central theme of the "State of the Union" address, David?

FRUM: He will but it's not so much of what he talks about in the "State of the Union," it's how he talks about it. Is he conciliatory? Is he big? Is he generous? Is he president of the whole country or does he shrink into the leader of the party? Does he repeat that absurd speech in Elyria, Ohio, which is not true to his nature, not true to his presidency.

CHETRY: Well, all right. I want to thank both of you for talking with us this morning. And by the way, don't miss the "State of the Union" address. We're going to be getting analysis from the best political team on television, that includes our Bob Shrum here as well David Frum from D.C. this morning. And our coverage begins at 8:00 p.m. Eastern time. Thanks, guys.

John.

ROBERTS: We start off a special project his morning. It's stimulus week here on CNN and we have a stimulus desk live in Atlanta. T.J. Holmes is coming right up with a report on where the dollars are going. Hey, T.J..

T.J. HOLMES, CNN CORRESPONDENT: A lot of dollars, a lot of projects. This is the stimulus desk. We are looking into some 58,000 stimulus projects, including one that's actually going to use your tax money to pay people to go clubbing. Not kidding. Get your resumes ready. We're back right after the break.

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ROBERTS: Welcome back to the most news in the morning. As we kick off our stimulus week coverage, just-released CNN Opinion Research Corporation poll finds a majority of Americans are opposed to the federal stimulus plan because of the waste. Just how much money is being wasted?

Twenty-one percent of respondents say nearly all of it, 24 percent of people say most of it. Twenty-nine percent say about half. Twnety-one percent a little, and just four percent believe that none of the stimulus dollars have been wasted.

All this week we're breaking down the $787 billion stimulus plan, and holding Washington's feet to the fire for all of the spending. Where did your money go? Who was it helping? And who has abused it? T.J. Holmes is manning our Stimulus Desk. He is live in Atlanta this morning where we're following the dollar. Good morning, T.J.

HOLMES: Hey, good morning to you, again, John. I'm glad you used those numbers. Because I want to hit on a project now, in just a second, kind of speaks to those numbers of why people think that money is being wasted. Let me just show you what we have on the map and what we're going to be doing this week.

We have established a stimulus desk here. What you're seeing on this board, these yellow dots -- these are current investigations that CNN has going on right now. We are checking into projects all around the country. And as we clear them, if you will, and to where we get the OK that money is being used in a proper way, these will turn green. But we'll be checking into more projects during the week so you'll see more yellow dots pop up.

Now, to give you an example of one we're looking at. This kind of speaks to the point about why people think money is being wasted. We're taking you to San Francisco where I had to bring this because I wanted to make sure I have my language clear on this study that's going on. About half a million dollars of that $787 billion stimulus bill, your tax money, is going to a company in San Francisco that is going to study the risky drinking patterns and decision-making in Bay area nightclubs. You heard that correctly. Essentially, what they're going to do is pay people to go clubbing. Now, a lot of people hear that initially and that doesn't sound like a very good use of your tax dollars.

Now in fairness to the company, they say it's important to do this, because there are problems related to excessive consumption of alcohol and it costs the U.S. money every year. But initially when you think about jobs being created and saved even, to pay 12 to 20 people for a short time of a study to go out, club, and observe other people drinking, some people might not think that's a good use of money.

Before I let you go here, I'm just going to show you exactly what the stimulus desk is over here. This is the group here, going to be working all week, working hard, and we probably need more people than we have here. Because as you look at these binders that are right here, this represents the 58,000 projects we are looking to. Some $158 billion represented we're looking into and some 640,000 jobs, John.

So we're trying to track this money, it's so much of it. But we're trying to find those cases where, quite frankly, money is being used, misused and abused. Of course, John, there are legitimate projects out there but you really don't know until you go through as many of these binders as you can during the week, and that is exactly what we're going to be doing this week. So we'll be checking in with you plenty.

ROBERTS: You know, T.J., we've often said when it comes to pork- barrel projects in Washington that one person's pork is another person's necessary project, going back to that San Francisco project, do we know the qualifications of people that would be hired for that study? Would they have to be researchers? Would they have to be psychologists? Or are they just pulling people off the street and saying, here's a few bucks, go tell me what's going on in the clubs?

HOLMES: That's a great question. What they have to do is be 21 to 30 years of age, quite frankly, according to the researchers, they say they're hiring people who can frankly blend in into that group. People who can get into a club and look like they fit in to where others who are around can drink and party naturally and they can then observe those folks without them feeling like, there's a researcher or somebody's keeping an eye on them.

So no, not necessarily researchers. One or two people, official researchers running the project, but for the most part, you've got to be 21 to 30 and willing to go clubbing.

ROBERTS: Interesting. All right. T.J. Holmes for us this morning at the stimulus desk. Thanks, T.J.

HOLMES: All right. ROBERTS: We'll check back with you a little later. A reminder too that you can track the money yourself. Check out CNN.com/stimulus.

Tomorrow on AMERICAN MORNING, we're going to show you some of the good news from the stimulus money. One family has food on their table because of it. And later on tonight, on "CAMPBELL BROWN" at 8:00 PM Eastern, find out why some residents of Montana think their state has made a double fault with their tax dollars.

And then at 10:00 PM Eastern, "AC 360" investigates why stimulus money is going to so many companies that have a history of breaking the law.

"The Stimulus Project", all this week, starting right here at 6:00 AM Eastern every day -- Kiran.

CHETRY: All right. Well, still ahead, we're going to be talking about the weather. In the East Coast, a storm bringing heavy rain and thunderstorms, but it's unseasonably warm as well up and down the East Coast. We're going to take a look when we check in with Jacqui Jeras.

It's 46 minutes after the hour.

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CHETRY: A shot of Indianapolis, Indiana, where they're probably still celebrating this morning. It is cloudy, 32 degrees, snow and wind. It's 35 degrees, but, hey, that's not stopping the party there.

I love how we put -- we play Jet. That's really mean, right? That's another dig right there, huh? Jacqui -- they're ready to (ph) the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, the New York Jets are not.

JACQUI JERAS, AMS METEOROLOGIST: I know, and neither are the Vikings.

CHETRY: Sorry about that.

JERAS: I know. It's been a rough day. What do you do?

Rough day weather wise as well for a lot of folks. You know, a lot of this rain and thunderstorm activity is pulling out of the southeast, but we've got a lot of standing water. There's a lot of flooding, 1 to 3 inches was really common here over the weekend, and so be aware of that.

Isolated severe storms still possible across Central and Southern Florida, as well as the Eastern Carolinas. Not really anticipating severe weather here in the northeast, but, boy, this is going to cause a lot of problems, some flooding can be expected here, but the wind's really kicking in, and so all those factors combined mean some major problems at the airport. We already have a ground stop until 8:00 at La Guardia, Teterboro till 8:15 and Philadelphia delays pushing an hour and a half. Many of the northeastern airports are going to have problems today, as well as Chicago because of some light snow and windy conditions.

And out west, out latest storm, moving on in. We're looking at Northern California, Southern California will get hit, we think late today and then to the day for tomorrow. Temperature-wise, we are warm. It's a Pacific system, so we're not getting that Arctic blast necessarily behind it. Highs today will be in the 40s and 50s, some 60s across the southeast. But that cold air is starting to filter in the Upper Midwest and you add in those bitter cold winds, we're going to see wind chills tonight, subzero once again. So winter trying to make a comeback up north.

John and Kiran, back to you.

ROBERTS: All right. Jacqui, thanks so much.

The aftermath of the earthquake in Haiti, and we talked about the need for medical supplies and -- and medical expertise. Well, now they've got too many doctors in some areas, not enough in other areas. Where are the biggest needs?

Our Dr. Sanjay Gupta takes us inside General Hospital for an update.

It's coming up now on nine minutes to the top of the hour.

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ROBERTS: Welcome back to the Most News in the Morning.

There is a whole new problem emerging right now in Haiti. So many doctors are now answering the call for medical aid that there are actually too many doctors in some areas but not enough in others, and the lack of coordination may be costing lives.

Our Dr. Sanjay Gupta had an up close look at the effort to get help to where the sick people are.

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DR. SANJAY GUPTA, CNN CHIEF MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: We're in a lobby here at General Hospital, and one of the things that you'll notice right away -- I noticed is that things are definitely better here than they were even just a couple of days ago.

Lots of different equipment here, gloves. We didn't even have gloves to perform some of these operations here just a couple of days ago. All kinds of suture.

One thing that's worth pointing out, though, even in the midst of all this, we still have instruments like this. We got some Black and Decker drill. That's what they have to use to be able to -- to perform these operations, to actually put the pins into the legs.

So, it's by no means perfect, but if you look around here, take a look at all the operations that are going on, this is better than it was three days ago. But here's something I didn't expect. They actually think there are too many doctors. Doctors stepping over one another, lack of organization, people watching what's happening and come flooding down into an area like this.

So we're about to go into this meeting. We're actually getting all the chiefs in the various departments together to try and coordinate this and they can try to be as efficient as possible.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think all of the groups are well staffed. This is coordinating staff so they're not repeating or overlapping...

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Coordinating -- Yes, and...

GUPTA: So that means some of these doctors may be sent to other hospitals where they are short surgeons.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (INAUDIBLE) in the area where we think all the sick patients are and then we have a way to go through, sweep the camps once a day and (INAUDIBLE).

GUPTA: Here -- I've been curious how they set up an operating theater and a whole system in a middle of an earthquake, we're look at it over here. These writing on the wall, here's OR1, here's OR2, here's the triage area. They've got post-op areas over here and here, pre-op areas over here. They actually separated this by the Haitian doctors, the natives, the doctors controlling (INAUDIBLE) Mt. Sinai over here, the Swiss operating room over here.

That's how it works. Lots of maps, lots of coordination going on. But one thing I want to point out, and I think this is really important, we are still talking about Port-au-Prince, which is over here. We now know that so much of -- there's been a lot of impact other areas as well, such as Leogane, and the plan now is to start taking some of those medical capabilities and moving them to some of the out -- outlying areas.

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GUPTA: And some of that coordination as well is going to involve actually giving these doctors some rest and bringing in new doctors and sort of cycling them back and forth. But, again, that's part of the coordination that is -- that is ongoing right now, John.

ROBERTS: So, Sanjay, you said that they're trying to get some of the doctors into some of the outlying areas. Do -- do you have any idea where surgeons are most needed right now?

GUPTA: Well, for example, in the Jacmel areas, Leogane -- there are some reports that in Leogane, for example, there's hardly been any medical care. You're getting some of the basic supplies out there, but some of these procedures that we're talking about, the operations, a lot of that just hasn't been done out there yet.

ROBERTS: You know, in the -- in the early going, Sanjay, we were getting tweets. We're also getting e-mails from doctors saying "I'm -- I'm trying to get in." There was a neurosurgeon in Westchester County who (AUDIO BREAK) couldn't get a ride down to Haiti. What should doctors do and -- and other medical technicians do if they want to go to Haiti to help but can't get a ride down there or can't get into the country?

GUPTA: Well, it's -- it's tough, there's no question. I'm getting those same e-mails and same tweets as well.

I would say two things. One is that you -- you could see some of the lack of coordination that I'm referring to in this piece and that -- and that's part of the problem. It's not that difficult to figure out. The second thing is that this is going to be an ongoing issue for some time, so I -- I know that people are anxious to help, which is -- which is a great thing, but weeks from now, months from now, that need is still going to be there.

I'll also say this, that there are things that are still needed when it comes to health care professionals. Nursing care, for example. Nurses are the real workforces of any hospital. Acute and chronic nursing care necessary. Rehabilitation, so many of these crush injuries need rehabilitation, and also prosthetics for the patients who got amputations.

So there are still some needs, but, you know, that there's -- there's some coordination that needs to be done with regard to the doctors in -- in particular.

ROBERTS: All right, Sanjay Gupta for us this morning in Port-au- Prince. Sanjay, thanks so much. Good to see you again.

CHETRY: Coming up in three minutes before the top of the hour. We have your top stories in just two minutes. We'll be right back.

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