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New Day

ISIS Demands $200 Million for Japanese Hostages; ISIS Linked to Belgium Terror Cell; State of the Union Preview; Breaking Down the President's Poll Numbers

Aired January 20, 2015 - 06:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: ISIS is demanding $200 million in exchange for the lives of two Japanese hostages.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: People in japan are bracing for the worst right now.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: A manhunt is under way for the leader of a suspected terror cell.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: ISIS directed this plot in Belgium.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: President Obama delivers his State Of The Union address tonight.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We should ask the wealthy to pay a little more and invest a little more.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Raising taxes on people that are successful is not going to make people who are struggling more successful.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: In Britain, it's not just no go zones there are actual cities like Birmingham that are totally Muslim. We're non- Muslims simply don't go in.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This guy is clearly a complete idiot.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There are neighborhoods where the women don't feel safe walking in those neighborhoods without veils.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CHRIS CUOMO, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. This is your NEW DAY. It's Tuesday, January 20th, 6:00 in the east almost. A new ISIS video threatens to kill two Japanese hostages, but the terror group says it won't perform the cowardly amounts if it receives a $200 million ransom in the next 72 hours.

This exchanging of perverse principle for cash just posted on militant websites this morning showing a black-clad terrorist speaking with a British accent wielding a knife.

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: The hostages seen in orange jumpsuits, include a freelance journalist and a man kidnapped in Syria after going there to train with militant fighters. The terrorists directly addresses Japan's prime minister, who is the demanding the release of the hostages and calls the threat, quote, "unforgivable."

Let's get right to CNN's Will Ripley, in Beijing, for the very latest. What do we know, Will?

WILL RIPLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Alisyn, we know that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe spoke within the last hour about this, and he says the terrorists need to be dealt with. He expressed outrage about this video, showing two citizens of Japan kneeling in between a man with a voice that many of our viewers may find a familiar, a voice believed to be Jihadi John of ISIS.

I'm going to play for you what he has to say, and then I'll explain why we believe he's demanding what he is.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: To the prime minister of Japan, although you are more than 8,500 kilometers away from the Islamic State, you willingly have elected (ph) to take part in this crusade.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RIPLEY: So Prime Minister Abe is in the Middle East right now, and just two days ago, he pledged $200 million in support to fight ISIS; and then two days later, ISIS takes these two Japanese hostages -- Kenji Goto, who is believed to have been taken sometime after October 23. That's the last time the freelance journalist posted on his Twitter account. He was a war zone reporter covering the conflict in the Middle East. Haruna Yukawa, 42 years old, owner of a private security company, he was taken in August.

It's believed that ISIS was holding these two men and then, just two days after the prime minister says Japan is pledging $200 million, suddenly this video appears with a well-known executioner, seen on tape killing two Americans and two British citizens, now demanding $200 million to ISIS in exchange for the lives of these Japanese men. It gives us some insight, Alisyn, into how this group continues to operate.

CAMEROTA: It does. Will, thanks so much for all that information.

And the fingerprints of ISIS are all over that terror cell that was targeted last week in Belgium, as well. The connection was confirmed by a senior counterterrorism official in Brussels. This morning the search is on for the suspected ringleader of that cell.

So let's get right to Brussels and bring in senior international correspondent Ivan Watson -- Ivan.

IVAN WATSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Alisyn.

That's right. It's a manhunt for one of Belgium's most notorious jihadis, a man named Abdul Hamid Abiud.

Now, according to a senior counterterrorism official, this man is believed to be the mastermind of a suspected jihadi plot, homegrown here in Belgium, that was aiming to target not only police officers, but also had weapons and explosives and much more ambitious plans.

Now, the Belgian authorities have succeeded in arresting at least five suspects here in Belgium. There were also two men who were killed in a shootout with police last week. Two more suspects arrested in France, as well as a suspect believed to be of Algerian nationality who was arrested by police in Greece.

But Abdul Hamid Abiud, who was last tracked to Greece, is still missing right now. And part of why he's so famous here is he's believed to have taken his younger brother, who was only 13 years old at the time, to Syria to join the ranks of ISIS. He's been described, this boy, Younis (ph), as the youngest jihadi in Syria. Abiud was also believed to have been filmed driving a pickup truck, dragging corpses, more than a half dozen corpses, through a field in Syria. And again, his name has reared after he was believed to have been killed and now linked to this jihadi cell, two of whose members died in a gun battle with Belgian police last week -- Michaela.

PEREIRA: All right. Nick (SIC), thank you so much for that.

A key role we know Yemen plays in all of this. The capital of Yemen is teetering on the brink this morning. A fragile cease-fire appears to be holding, at least for now, between government officials in the presidential palace and rebels who have surrounded the area.

Could this fragile country and key U.S. ally against al Qaeda fall further into chaos? Let's turn to our senior international correspondent, Nick Paton Walsh, the only western TV journalist in Yemen.

What's the latest, Nick?

NICK PATON WALSH, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Michaela, what we're seeing on the streets, having just driven around, is clearly a division of power to some degree. The president's Republican (ph) guard are dug in around the presidential administration, the building that we saw an artillery duel for yesterday right from where I'm standing. But the Houthi rebels, they are everywhere. A lot of buildings damaged in the shelling. Buses we saw blown up around there, too. Frankly, it's a mess, the city trying to get back normal life. But hanging over them is the simple fact that this cease-fire could collapse at any moment.

The political deal, which is still being hammered out. The president meeting with all parties right now. We don't know the details of it. It hasn't been signed at this stage. And I think the feeling amongst some observers here is the fundamental problems that caused this -- the Houthis' desire for more power here, and the government's desire to try and retain what trappings they have -- that hasn't been resolved. They may have stopped shooting for now, but there are a lot of gunmen, heavily armed, all around key infrastructure here. And that sense of the clock ticking. If the politicians don't get some kind of miracle together in the next few hours, we could see again the violence we saw yesterday morning -- Chris.

CUOMO: All right. Nick, thank you for sticking and please be safe. We'll check in with you later in the show.

So we have new developments with ISIS, al Qaeda and this wild card. The question is, is a war reigniting off the radar in Ukraine? We're going to discuss all these things. We have Jean-Charles Brisard. He's chairman of the Paris-based Center for Analysis of Terrorism. And Jim Arkedis, former Department of Defense counterterrorism official. He's also president of the foreign policy political action committee, 4D-PAC.

Gentlemen, thank you for joining us. Let's start with this ISIS video control room. Let's not show it too much. No reason to give these guys false advertising. But this video that's out now with the twist about ransom.

Jean-Charles, I start with you. The idea of paying ransom to a group like ISIS, should you ever do it?

JEAN-CHARLES BRISARD, CHAIRMAN, CENTER FOR ANALYSIS OF TERRORISM: Well, of course, it's always a difficult question for governments. There's some governments -- the United States, the U.K. -- have a firm stand and commitment on this issue. Others are more flexible and are more willing to, in some cases, to discuss with terrorists. It's always a difficult issue.

But indeed, if you pay ransom to a terrorist organization, be sure that it will reinforce their capabilities. We've seen that in the past, especially in the Sahel region with al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. They've been able to raise almost $100 million over a period of five years, and that contributed to reinforce their capabilities and, finally, to the launch of a major offensive on the northern parts of Mali.

CUOMO: Right. And let's put up the numbers, guys. Countries do pay, Jim, right? We'll show right there some of the top numbers that have been paid, France at the top of the list there.

Two questions for you: one, no group ever asks once, right? So what does it mean about down the road? And what does this mean about ISIS that they're asking for money? Does that mean that they need it? What's your take?

JIM ARKEDIS, PRESIDENT, 4D-PAC: Well, to the second question first, this is kind of ISIS's M.O. Right? This is what they do. They've kidnapped people before. They make demands, and they're incredibly well-funded and have had multiple revenue streams. Hostage-taking is just one of them. And the other has been taking territory and trying to cap oil wells and divert oil revenue for their own uses. And so this actually speaks to a broader M.O. We have so much going

on in the world right now, it's tough to make sense of all this. We have terror plots in Belgium and Paris and AQAP and now the crisis in Ukraine.

And so it's actually a little bit of good news. The idea that the guy in Belgium, for example, was directed by ISIS. Yes, for example he went to Syria. He probably fought there. But by the time he got back to Belgium, he was basically a freelancer. And so I think it's very important for the public to understand that we disaggregate between the two.

What we see with the hostage-taking and the revenue, that's more in ISIS's traditional M.O. of holding territory. And this is their primary concern in Iraq and Syria right now.

CUOMO: So the Belgium situation, you say go slow on whether or not we see this guy as a legit ISIS operative, even if he's the head of a local terror cell. Maybe he is a freelancer, as you say.

Well, then let's extend that question. What do you think of this flurry of activity in general, be it Belgium or Greece? You know, or in Paris. Do you see this -- these recent arrests, this recent movement by authorities, is any of it connected?

ARKEDIS: It's a lot of spaghetti, right? It's all over the place. And so we, in the western media and in the United States, we want to put these things in neat little boxes; and we want to understand it, and we want to say, "OK, I've got it. Now it's time to move on." Right?

But really the way these terrorist networks function is, in the case of AQAP and ISIS, certainly now, people will go fight. They will get training in the case of AQAP. Then they'll go home, right? And they'll be left to their own devices for a certain period in time.

And in the case in Belgium, this guy, frankly, wasn't very good at what he was doing. Because we've seen that the police were -- had infiltrated his cell for a couple of months, had been watching him.

CUOMO: Right.

ARKEDIS: Moved in when they thought that it was about to become operational. And so I would suggest that the danger to the public is actually quite low.

And so this guy was not a professional hardened operative. When we're trained to view these things through the lens of al Qaeda and 9/11, which was a very top-down organization, this is something very different.

CUOMO: Jean-Charles, to you, France specific. We hear word that some of the suspects were released. That brings some outcry and controversy. But of course, Paris -- France is a nation of laws.

Is there any talk there about the need for something like the Patriot Act here in the United States? Which was highly controversial, but effective when it came to dealing with situations like this.

BRISARD: As this was said just before, we're dealing with very complex networks. It is -- we need to be very cautious in what we're doing, and especially in our analysis of what is going on, whether these individuals have been inspired or directed by any of these groups.

As far as France is concerned, we have been fighting in the past, in the '80s, in the '90s, waves of massive terrorism on our soil, especially in Paris. And we've always responded through the law, and we've defeated terrorism in the '80s and the '90s again with the law. We will defeat it today again with the law. Because we don't want to -- basically to renounce to our values. This will give another argument to the terrorists.

And so we decided recently to reinforce the measures, to reinforce the cooperation, for example, at the European level, which is fundamental in the fight, especially against the jihadists who are flying to Syria. But we will never renounce our values. Again we -- we've defeated terrorism in the past. And we will do so with the same force.

CUOMO: So -- so, the controversy aside about the recent releases of the suspects, you say the process works. Understood. We look forward to the results there. Jean-Claude -- Charles Brisard, thank you for that.

Last point with you, Mr. Arkedis. What's going on in the Ukraine, the allegations that it is Russia. Do you believe that there is substance behind that allegation? And if so, is there any new move, because all the other ones haven't worked?

ARKEDIS: I would be very surprised if Russia was not sending more arms into the Ukraine.

We've seen a situation where oil prices throughout the world are beginning to fall. This is putting a lot of pressure on Vladimir Putin. Domestic economy, he's just slashed public spending in basically all sectors, except the military.

Now we're in situation where, because he's starting to feel a bunch of domestic political pressure, because the economy is going in the tank, he addressed it over the course of his new year's speech, press conference. He likes to deflect a lot of this pressure by helping to create international crises, and I suspect that that is exactly what we're seeing here. He likes to ramp up pressure outside Russia when it's being focused on him within Russia.

CUOMO: Big collateral damage, at a minimum, though, because what we're hearing from Donetsk is that it literally is becoming almost unlivable there. Not yet, but that's the way it's heading.

Jim Arkedis, thank you very much.

ARKEDIS: Thank you.

CUOMO: And again, Jean-Charles Brisard, appreciate the perspective this morning.

Mick, over to you.

PEREIRA: All right. So a fatal situation here in Cincinnati. The morning commute is expected to be a nightmare there after a construction worker was killed, a tractor-trailer driver injured in an overpass collapse. That bridge was being demolished. The police chief says something went terribly wrong. He said the tractor-trailer driver is lucky to have survived. The rig slammed into the collapsed section just as the bridge was coming down.

CUOMO: So on a day when we were honoring a moon who put a premium on peace, Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., protests broke out from coast to coast. In San Mateo, California, 68 people were arrested for blocking traffic on a bridge for hours. There are also demonstrations in New York, St. Louis, Boston and Atlanta, where hundreds blocked a parade near the annual Martin Luther King birthday commemorization [SIC] at Ebenezer Baptist Church.

CAMEROTA: OK. Bad news for all of us, at least. Sitting may be the new smoking. According to a new study, sitting for prolonged periods of time can -- get it up, Michaela.

PEREIRA: I'm sorry.

CAMEROTA: ... increase your risk of heart disease, diabetes, if that's not enough, early death -- get up...

CUOMO: I don't buy it.

CAMEROTA: ... even if you exercise.

PEREIRA: Why are you such a hater?

CUOMO: I'll tell you why.

CAMEROTA: The risks appear to be greatest for people who are sedentary eight or nine hours a day.

PEREIRA: Oh, no.

CAMEROTA: And more pronounced for people without regular exercise.

PEREIRA: Well, at least we exercise regularly.

CAMEROTA: We do?

CUOMO: But it doesn't help.

CAMEROTA: Darn it.

PEREIRA: It's more pronounced. This is something Dr. Sanjay Gupta has got to come in and clarify for us.

CUOMO: One, I like that you stand in my presence, first of all.

PEREIRA: Oh, jeez.

CUOMO: There they go.

PEREIRA: And down.

CAMEROTA: I think we should do the whole newscast on one of the, like, treadmills.

PEREIRA: I'm with you.

CUOMO: Look, I want to hear what Sanjay says, because this is one of those studies that just, you know, it doesn't give me the right feel.

PEREIRA: You -- look at his face now (ph).

CUOMO: I don't know how good diet and exercise doesn't offset -- and who sits for nine hours a day?

PEREIRA: We'll discuss. We'll discuss.

CUOMO: So we're going to discuss it.

CAMEROTA: Gosh, I'm exhausted.

Meanwhile, President Obama is putting the final touches on tonight's State of the Union address as his approval ratings rebound to their highest levels in 18 months. What's behind that surge?

CUOMO: And Bobby Jindal, the governor of Louisiana, triggering outrage, insisting there are Muslim no-go zones being allowed in western cities. Others have apologized for similar claims, but the governor is doubling down. We're going to discuss the controversy ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CAMEROTA: Spoiler alert: President Obama has been revealing the key agenda items he'll present in the State of the Union for weeks. He's not keeping it a surprise. And tonight, for the first time in his presidency, he will be dressing a Congress that is totally ruled by Republicans.

CNN's Michelle Kosinski is live at the White House with a preview for us.

Hi, Michelle.

MICHELLE KOSINSKI, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Alisyn.

You know, plenty will be watching to see what that Republican reaction is.

But there's also talk about President Obama getting his mojo back after the mid-term elections. His approval rating ticking up over the last few weeks. In the latest poll from ABC and "Washington Post" is a 50 percent approval rating, or nine points higher than it was just about a month ago.

The White House sums up the theme of this State of the Union in three thirds: middle class economics. And we've already seen them lay out some of that with their tax proposal, free junior college education. They say there's more to come.

But you also have to think, coming on the heels of major cyber and terror attacks, that has to figure in significantly, as well. And we asked a former speech writer for President Clinton, Don Baer (ph), what he thought the percentage would have to be of domestic versus foreign policy. He thought it would be about 50/50 for this speech. And we asked him, "If you were writing this, would you start out with countering terror? Would you feel like you had to?" He said that's a tough call, but no. And he thinks that this speech will start with President Obama's domestic agenda -- Alisyn.

CAMEROTA: OK, Michelle, thanks so much for all that.

Let's break it down with CNN's political analyst and editor in chief of the "Daily Beast," John Avlon, along with CNN political commentator and Republican consultant and Sirius XM host, Margaret Hoover. Great to have you guys.

OK. The president has had an approval jump of nine points, according to the latest ABC poll in the last month. What's going on?

JOHN AVLON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Wow. That's huge. It's all about the economy.

I mean, look, presidential approval ratings really are just an economic barometer. There's -- I hate to say there's not a heck of a lot more going on there, except when an external threat (ph) intrudes. The economy is improving. The president looks smarter. More people approve. But it does give him a degree of leverage and some momentum going into the State of the Union, where he's facing a Republican united Congress for the first time.

CUOMO: John is right: it's not necessarily a window into personal success. I was laughing and pumping it up, because I want to see how tight Margaret would squeeze her hand.

Why do you not see it as something that should be attributed to the president and an increased mandate for him?

MARGARET HOOVER, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Any time the president's approval rate is high going into a joint session of Congress that helps. That means the American people are on his side.

CUOMO: Sure, but...

HOOVER: So it's not that I don't think this helps him.

CUOMO: But...

HOOVER: The problem is the election was a repudiation of Democratic policies and of the president, six years into his presidency. All of the policies and the programs he's going to unveil tonight, he

had full range to unveil them or propose them when he had a Democratic Congress. So he's not...

CUOMO: Except for there was a lot of successful opposition. What about all the opposition that stopped him from getting anything through? Did that not happen, also?

HOOVER: Well, the point, Chris, is that he is presenting all of these new plans and policies to a Congress that has repudiated him. Now he has all these new Republicans in place. So while he does have temporary -- because it is temporary -- approval ratings on his side, that doesn't mean the Republican Congress, who's newly elected, who has a mandate themselves because they've been elected, their agenda is the more important piece here, I think.

CAMEROTA: But he says that -- he's couching this all as help for the middle class.

CUOMO: Right.

CAMEROTA: There will be tax credits for married couples so that they can get some money to help with commuting and with child care. How can the Republicans go against that, Margaret?

HOOVER: That's a really great question. Because we're for earned income tax credits. We're for helping the middle class. We're for -- I mean, so it's actually a very sort of bait-and-switch play on the president. I mean, it's very clever of him to try to take a Republican issue and try to force Republicans to be against it.

CUOMO: You think the earned income -- you think the earned income tax credit is seen as a Republican issue?

HOOVER: Go ask Mike Lee from Utah, what he thinks about earned income tax credit or Marco Rubio or the American Enterprise Institute. A lot of the new policies of these reform Republicans are saying put more money back in the pockets of the middle class, and so frankly it is.

You know, the way he's doing it, he's also saying, "By the way, we also have to tax the rich." That's not actually going to do anything, really, to balance the budget.

But so it's not that he is pursuing purist Republican or conservative policies. He's also couching it with tax the rich, by the way, and here's a new couple federal programs for you at the same time frame.

AVLON: Well, look, so he's doing a little bit of political judo, because he is trying to take the issue of tax cut populism from middle class, from Republicans and force them to oppose it, merely because they want to protect the fat cats he wants to raise taxes on. He's proposing around $200 million -- billion dollars of tax cuts for the middle class, around $300 billion tax hikes for the wealthy.

So you have this play-to-the-base message, and clearly, this is a president who at this point is not going to worry about opening the bid up in the center. He figures Republicans are going to come to him if they want to make a deal. A lot of the proposals have been floated to date have really been about playing to the base.

CAMEROTA: Meanwhile -- sorry, Chris.

CUOMO: No, no, please.

CAMEROTA: Well, there's another poll that I wanted to bounce off of you. This is the latest for the front-runners, if there is such a thing, on the GOP side for the 2016 presidential race. Romney and Jeb Bush, and their numbers have dipped in the past few months.

So let me show you. They're now at 27 percent. Romney was at 33 percent back in September. And in -- Bush is at 19 percent now; Jeb Bush was at 22 percent back in September. What's going on with them? Why are they seeing a dip?

HOOVER: Look, I think all of these polls really are early in the primary process, before people have even announced it, or it's really -- it's really difficult to discern. I mean, there's always within the margin of error, rather. And you know, it's just sort of -- I don't put much credence in them, because it's really hard to tell.

CUOMO: I think -- I think you were right the first time. I think it is the error of margins. Because the numbers themselves are rarely indicative. You look at trends, if the economy is going well and the incumbent gets a bounce, then the alternative is not as attractive, so they tend to see their numbers slip a little bit. I think it's probably all it is.

AVLON: Well, candidates are never as popular as when they're about to get in. Once they finally declare, they're real, then it's easier to marshal opposition.

CAMEROTA: Real quickly, we need to talk about Bobby Jindal. Because he -- you know, there's been this whole controversy about no-go zones. FOX News had to apologize repeatedly for claiming there were no-go zones in France and in Britain where non-Muslims do not feel comfortable going.

Bobby Jindal has doubled down on that. When he was asked by CNN's Matt Foster, "How do you -- what do you know about this," he said, "Absolutely there are no-go zones in Britain." You're shaking your head?

AVLON: Yes. It's just a tragedy of Bobby Jindal. That one of the smartest guys in elected office is playing to the cheap seats and putting forward fact-free fear-mongering, and doing so in such a dumb way, bringing his message to Britain. And when they call him and say, "Exactly what neighborhood are you talking about," he's got nothing. So it actually is sort of a sad moment for such a smart guy to feel like the best way to try to run for president -- or, really, vice president, which is what he's got his best shot of being -- is by being as irresponsible as possible.

HOOVER: And what it's about is that you really have two types of Republican GOP primary candidates. You have the ones who are going to try to talk to the center and be sort of moderate and stand up to the base. And you have the ones who are going to play to the base. It's all about the Tuesday southern state super primaries, Super Tuesday, where you have all these southern states, from Louisiana to Texas to Florida. And if you win Iowa, you win South Carolina, and then you get those states, that's your best chance, if you're Ted Cruz or Bobby Jindal or Marco Rubio or one of these different candidates.

AVLON: So we've got a year of stupid to look forward to.

CUOMO: So the truth is he was trying to make -- you know, if I might, he was trying to make an intelligent point, which was you can't seclude, you can't isolate populations of immigrants in your midst. You have to assimilate. That was one of the points he was making. If you do that, then it allows society to operate better together. It just got lost.

AVLON: That's a real important point, but that's not what he said.

CUOMO: I know. But stick around, because we are going to have a fact from fiction segment coming up next about -- from a woman, an expert who did live in Birmingham, England, to talk about what these no-go zones really are what they look like, if non-Muslims do look comfortable.

So thanks so much, Margaret, John. Great to see you guys.

CUOMO: And in the next hour we're going to talk with White House press secretary Josh Earnest about whey thinks about this situation, heading up, leading up to the president's big speech.

CAMEROTA: Also, new controversy over the blockbuster hit, "American Sniper." Filmmaker Michael Moore triggering an uproar, calling snipers, quote, "cowards." What did he mean? Why are so many Americans outraged by his comments?

CUOMO: Michael Moore and outrage? Shocker.

Tiger Woods, what happened to his tooth? Spotted in public, missing one of the keys in the front of his mouth. How did that happen? It wasn't a kiss, was it?

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