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Could Iran Deal Set Off Middle East Arms Race?; Trump Leads GOP in New National Poll; Can Obama Sell Congress on Iran? Aired 6:30-7a ET

Aired July 15, 2015 - 06:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[06:32:34] BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Given the destabilizing activities that you have engaged in in support of terrorism, it's not enough for us to trust when you say that you are only creating peaceful nuclear program, you have to prove it to us.

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CHRIS CUOMO, CNN ANCHOR: President Obama addressing Iran in an interview with "The New York Times." This agreement is based on verification, not trust. That's the president's message.

Could a deal with Iran spark an arms race in the Middle East? Could it embolden ISIS?

General Michael Hayden joins us now. He is the former director of the NSA and CIA, and now a principal at the Chertoff Group.

It's very good to have you general. Let's deal with these specific concerns.

Let's start with Israel. Israel is against the deal. They say the world is a less safe place today and certainly they are less safe.

Is that true?

GEN. MICHAEL HAYDEN, FORMER NSA & CIA DIRECTOR: Well, there are lots of ways of looking at this, Chris. You've got the deal itself. We can get into the fine print about that. But I think the greatest concern from Israel is that after this 10- or 15-year period, Iran is going to come out of this process as a more powerful state with regard to nuclear technology.

So, if anything, it doesn't stop the Iranian program to look forward with nuclear technology. It might rent a pause in that program. Over the long term, I can understand why the Israeli's are concerned. That may not be enough for us to think the deal is a bad idea. But I understand the Israeli concern.

CUOMO: Was there a better alternative?

HAYDEN: Well, that's the really tough question. If you are not going to do this deal, what else are you going to do?

There are lots of things about this deal, Chris, that make me uncomfortable. Again, the time limit on it.

Secondly, you know, 48 hours ago, Iran was a renegade state. Everything we are talking about in regard to the nuclear program was illegitimate. We just made it legitimate. We are going to have $150 billion and all those other things Iran is doing that we disagree with and are dangerous. They are going to be more capable of doing those things.

And so, when you look at are there better alternatives, I think it's fair to ask, there might be. But, frankly, Chris, there aren't good alternatives, including this deal. If we go to plan B, it's really going to have to require very robust American leadership to try to keep the international community together.

[06:35:02] And even with strong American leadership, that would have been very, very hard.

CUOMO: Is the idea that you could have possibly stopped Iran from doing any nuclear development misguided given the fact of the NPT and entitled to peaceful development?

HAYDEN: Well, look, when this all started, Secretary Kerry actually said, we do not concede Iran's right to enrichment. Chris, that was the premise of the talks. We weren't going to get the Iranians to the table without giving them that concession so we could now discuss limiting their program, not preventing their program. I'm afraid the Iranians have created facts on the ground that absent military action, we couldn't undo.

CUOMO: And also, as a signatory to the NPT, they do have international rights. That's something that had to be regarded as well.

How could this situation possibly embolden or help ISIS?

HAYDEN: Well, I'm not sure how that formulation works because, if anything, it strengthens the Iranians outside of the nuclear portfolio and the Iranians are, indeed, fighting against ISIS. In one sense, you can see the Sunni's grouping together, perhaps being more, what's the right word, Chris? Accepting. Tolerant of ISIS, because ISIS is in opposition to Shia, Persian, Iran.

But, that's a whole series of shots. I'm not sure that you could oppose this deal because it might, in some indirect way strengthen the Islamic State.

CUOMO: When you look at this, you say, you know, you have concerns about the deal. I'm sure you haven't had time to digest all of it. It's really thick. I have spent hours on it myself. I suggest you start with the annexes, by the way, that's my one tip because that's how this works in that part.

What is the best thing coming out of it and what is your biggest concern?

HAYDEN: Well, actually, Chris, I had great fears we would make more concessions than we did in the agreement. We have tight language in there. There is a process for not quite anywhere, anytime inspections. I'm a little worried about the politics of that process, but at least there's a procedure.

The agreement is a bit tighter than I feared. That said, I am worried that the IAEA might not be able to get to the right places. I am worried about the political cost of snapback sanctions even though there is a process.

And, Chris, I don't understand how the Iranians get relief from the sanctions against their ballistic missile program and against their buying and selling conventional arms out of an agreement that was supposed to have been confined only to the nuclear question. That one really does trouble me.

CUOMO: That is a strong point, because the president is saying, don't talk to me about their terrorism activities, that's a separate issue. This is about the nukes. And yet the U.N. sanctions against weapons and missiles are part of this and five and eight year intervals of being retired.

HAYDEN: Yes, at most -- at most, Chris.

CUOMO: Right, that is a legitimate question. That's for sure. That's why we need a lot more discussion on this.

Thank you for much, General Hayden, always a pleasure.

HAYDEN: Thank you.

CUOMO: Please come back.

Alisyn?

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: Chris, Donald Trump surging the polls. The billionaire now topping the Republican field. So, how does he stack up head-to-head with Hillary Clinton? That's next.

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[06:42:31] CAMEROTA: Welcome back.

The hard sell in full swing. President Obama defending the terms of the landmark nuclear deal with Iran in a "New York Times" interview. He says it meets every bottom line for keeping Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.

But House Speaker John Boehner says the House leadership will try to block it. The president will hold a news conference this afternoon on the Iran deal.

CUOMO: Mexican authorities releasing surveillance video of the precise moment drug kingpin Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman escaped from prison. He's seen here, he's pacing back and forth and all of a sudden, he steps into this bathroom stall and he's gone.

As we now know, below that hole was a mile long tunnel. Law enforcement source tells CNN U.S. drug agents warned Mexico last year that El Chapo was planning a prison break.

CAMEROTA: Brash billionaire Donald Trump now at the top of the Republican pack. This is according to a new "USA Today"/Suffolk University poll. But how will Trump fare head to head with Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton?

CNN political reporter Sara Murray has the very latest from Washington, D.C.

What do the polls say?

SARA MURRAY, CNN POLITICAL REPORTER: Good morning, Alisyn.

Like you said, Trump is on top today. He is leading the field along Republican likely primary and caucus-goers by 17 percent. Now, the closest candidate nipping at his heels is former Florida Governor Jeb Bush in at 14 percent.

Now, I do want to point out that these two guys are within the margin of error. So, statistically, they are tied here. But something tells me you are not going to hear Donald Trump make that caveat on the campaign trail.

There is one other interesting number I want to point out on this and that is the number of undecided voters. So, while Trump has 17 percent support, 30 percent of voters say they haven't sure who they are going to support. That shows just how fluid the field is.

It's also giving you a sense of why we are seeing so much support for Donald Trump, because people that tune in early are angry and disenfranchised with the state of the country. That gives a sense of why we are seeing the Donald Trump protest vote.

Now, when it comes to a Donald Trump administration, I don't want to get too far ahead of myself. This poll puts him up head-to- head against Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton. When you do that, Donald Trump gets creamed. Clinton leads him by 17 points.

Back to you, Chris.

CUOMO: All right. Thank you very much, Sara. Appreciate it.

So, speaking of Donald Trump, he talks a lot about Kate Steinle being killed by an undocumented immigrant in San Francisco, about how wrong it was and what it exposes about the immigration system.

[06:45:01] But the family says he never reached out and they don't like Trump using their loved one as a political pawn.

Listen to what Brad Steinle, the brother, told Anderson Cooper.

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ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: Do you feel like Donald Trump is using your sister?

BRAD STEINLE, BROTHER OF WOMAN KILLED BY UNDOCUMENTED IMMIGRANT: In a way, yes. Sensationalizing it is not the route we would like to go.

COOPER: So, your message to Donald Trump would be what?

STEINLE: You know, if you're going to -- if you're going to use somebody's name and you're going to sensationalize the death of a beautiful young lady, maybe you should call and talk to the family first and see what their views are.

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CAMEROTA: You know, the family says they haven't heard from the administration, from the president.

You know, it's -- just imagine. I mean, suffering sort of this tragedy and a loss and then suddenly your sister's name being said by all politicians, being used as a political football. They were thrust into this national conversation.

CUOMO: And are they right to feel that the people who are using their sister, their loved one, don't share their pain? Of course they are. These are politicians talking political things. They are not even talking about just simply justice for her. You know that's going to come, already. You have the guy.

And they also know it's being used to do a spin about what sanctuary cities are really about and the wrong things going on. A lot of misperception is on the back of this family, and that is a legitimate concern.

CAMEROTA: Yes, let us know what you think about that. You can find us on Twitter.

Well, President Obama calling for sweeping reforms in the criminal justice system. What about his controversial suggestions for cutting down on prison sentences?

Our panel weighs in next.

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[06:50:37] CAMEROTA: A full court press for President Obama trying to sell Congress on the nuclear deal with Iran. The president is said to hold a news conference today after speaking in detail with "The New York Times", hours after this deal was announced. How will he convince the skeptics?

Joining us this morning is our CNN political commentator and political anchor at New York 1 News, Errol Louis, and CNN political analyst and "New York Times" presidential campaign correspondent, Maggie Haberman.

Great to see you, guys.

ERROL LOUIS, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Good morning.

MAGGIE HABERMAN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Thanks.

CAMEROTA: Just when you think the negotiating is done, now, President Obama tries to sell it to Congress. How hard will this be, Maggie?

HABERMAN: It's going to be very difficult. There's a lot of skepticism is voiced from Republicans, but also some Democrats. As you mentioned, he's holding a press conference, that's also about convincing the public. He needs to get a lot of support for this deal. And it's going to take some time.

I think that you saw this effort with this interview with "The Times," where he laid out essentially that this deal is better than no deal. This deal is better than a lot of other options, but there are a lot of -- especially Republicans, who think essentially this is offering a window to Iran to get a nuclear weapon. I think it's going to be difficult to convince a lot of them otherwise.

CUOMO: That's because, politically, Errol, it is. You know, this is not an if, it's a when proposition. And you don't have to read the deal to say you are letting them get a bomb and you're letting them get money, and all they do is say that Israel and the U.S. should die.

LOUIS: Right. What you just mentioned is really important and has not been talked about enough, which is that it was inevitable. It is inevitable. You can talk to any nuclear expert who knows anything about this stuff, Iran was going to be able to develop a bomb.

CUOMO: The sanctions were bringing them to their knees, Errol. If we just ratcheted up more, they would do anything we want.

LOUIS: Yes. I mean, it's fantasy land. In the interview with Tom Friedman, it's interesting that there's a reference to the Cold War and how the United States won the Cold War. We spent the Soviet Union into oblivion but we had deals going at the same time. You simply have to do that.

CAMEROTA: Let's play that, because he does -- he invokes Ronald Reagan and Henry Kissinger.

So, let's listen to a portion of that interview.

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OBAMA: In the same way that Ronald Reagan and others negotiated arms agreements with the Soviet Union, you had to recognize, yes, this is an evil, terrible system. But within it are people with specific, historic ideas and memories. And we have to be able to understand those things and potentially try to make some connection. The same was true with respect to Nixon and Kissinger going to China, which, ended up being a very important strategic benefit to the United States.

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CAMEROTA: Maggie, is he specifically -- is he attempting to use Republican, sort of code words there, why they should like it?

HABERMAN: He's attempting to say this is not the first time in history there's been this kind of deal where you have question marks that have been raised. Also, we need global partners. This is not just the U.S. essentially going at it alone.

You say him say that over and over again in this interview. It's an important point. If the U.S. walked away from the deal, if the U.S. just walked away, the partners involved in the sanctions, the U.S. had not been hurt by them, but other people have. That would be problematic.

CUOMO: Right. And there were two points of pushback from the allies, right? One is, you are cutting off our ability to do commerce and it was starting to sneak around it. And Iran is a signatory to the NPT, which allows it to do peaceful nuclear development. So, it got complicated.

But the politics are very simple, Errol. It said, you did a deal with bad people. Let's play the sound from the presidential candidates and how they are reacting to this.

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SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-SC), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: This is a death sentence for state of Israel.

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The Iranians are very good negotiators. The Persians are always great negotiators. They are laughing at us back in Iran.

CARLY FIORINA (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: He says it makes a nuclear arms race less likely. Our Arab allies have said just the opposite.

RICK SANTORUM (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: They come out of this a much, much stronger and I believe, more virulent state with very, very few responsibilities.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CUOMO: Easy to knock down these criticisms, by the way.

LOUIS: Well, it's simple talk, of a complicated situation so, yeah, it's very hard to counter a simple statement with facts. I mean, a death sentence on Israel. It's hyperbole.

[06:55:00] CUOMO: Well, you have Netanyahu saying the same thing.

LOUIS: Well, this is a thing. You know who else is saying it's a crummy deal, are the hardliners in Iran. They are not jumping up and down, the inner sanctum of this regime. The hard liners didn't want sanctions regime to really stick.

I mean, they didn't want any kind of peace arrangement. They didn't want real verification. They wanted to stay in power. They wanted to stay at the top of a crumbling structure because they'd be at the top, even if it was crumbling.

So, there's a sort of path forward. I think what we are going to have to see, though, is in the debates, will people step up and say, look, what's the alternative? Do you want another gulf war? It's the only alternative to trying to make peace.

HABERMAN: It's interesting. One of the people we have not heard from on the Republican side is Rand Paul. And he has been basically one of the only, not dovish, necessarily, but certainly not interventionist voices within the current Republican Party and certainly in the presidential field.

You are hearing a lot from the hawk who is say it is not a good idea. It will be interesting to see if he comes forward more openly.

CAMEROTA: Very quickly, let's talk about what's going to happen in Congress. They need two-thirds -- the president said he will veto any effort to try to scuttle this deal. They need two-thirds of the body to override his veto. In the Senate, we believe they have 48 votes to override the veto. They need 67. What's going to happen?

HABERMAN: I think it's going to be very hard to override the veto. I think what's the president is relying on. I think the part of this effort that he's beginning today is essentially reminding people I do have this ability to go around this. So, it's much easier if we march forward together.

CUOMO: Even if they override it, though, Errol. So, let's say they get 67 because enough Democrats are worried about compromising the Israeli safety concerns. And you know, it's not good. So what?

LOUIS: Exactly right. You are going to see Hillary Clinton behind the scenes putting lot on the lines. You cannot do this to me. You cannot do this administration. This is important not just on the substance. The merits are considerable.

But you can't just take control of foreign policy at this level of specificity. Congress doesn't have the ability to do it. They don't have the Constitution to go --

CUOMO: They can just hold their sanctions in place. They can refuse to remove them.

LOUIS: They can refuse to remove them, exactly. In that case, it would be a serious, serious blow. I don't think that's going to happen. I would be surprised if in his waiting days, the president doesn't have enough juice to go senator by senator throughout the Democratic conference and say, you are going to make this happen. You are going to give this to me.

And, you know, we can bargain over what you want on the side, but you can't scuttle basically a major piece of foreign policy work.

CAMEROTA: Maggie, Errol, thanks for explaining all of that. Always great to get your analysis.

CUOMO: Before we hear from Rand Paul's campaign, he tweeted he is against the deal. We haven't heard it in his full throated response as we have from others, yet. I'm sure it's going to come.

If you want to pick up on what he said and everybody else, you get all your political news at CNNPolitics.com.

This is a huge story. There's other breaking news. So, let's get to it.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CUOMO: Footage capturing the final moments before Mexican drug lord Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman busted out of his prison cell.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: More than 30 prison guards have been taken into custody.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: If the government cannot hold a criminal of this level in prison, how can it protect you?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We see this deal as allowing Iran to maintain a massive nuclear infrastructure.

OBAMA: If this deal did not go through, it was more likely Iran would make a nuclear weapon.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This was an historic mistake.

OBAMA: This is our best option.

CUOMO: Sweeping changes to the criminal justice system.

OBAMA: We should not be tolerating overcrowding in prison. We should not be tolerating gang activity in prison.

ANNOUNCER: This is NEW DAY with Chris Cuomo, Alisyn Camerota and Michaela Pereira.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CAMEROTA: And good morning, everyone. Welcome back to your NEW DAY. Michaela is off today.

It turns out cameras were rolling when Mexican drug kingpin Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman escaped from prison last weekend. Take a look at the surveillance footage. You can see "El Chapo," him pacing back and forth in his cell before stepping into the bathroom stall, which you'll see in a moment. A few seconds later, he vanishes.

CUOMO: Think he was having second thoughts?

CAMEROTA: No.

CUOMO: Thinking of doing his time, like a good prisoner should?

CAMEROTA: Good question. What was he thinking while pacing? But he vanishes down into the tunnel below.

CUOMO: That's absolutely true. And now, there's information suggesting U.S. drug agents warned Mexican authorities a year ago about a possible prison break in the works.

Let's start off the coverage. CNN national correspondent Polo Sandoval live from Mexico this morning.

Polo, the latest?

POLO SANDOVAL, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Chris, good morning.

These brand-new images that are being released by the Mexican federal government are going to be critical to the investigation and, perhaps one of the most significant developments in the case since the break over the weekend. You see, that footage shows the latest image of Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman. It also shows the very moment before he slid out of view of the security cameras and into the tunnel below.

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SANDOVAL (voice-over): This newly surveillance video shows the second brazen prison escape of infamous drug lord Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman.