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Violent Explosions Kill 44, Injure Hundreds in China; Donald Trump Continues to Lead GOP Field; Clinton Beating Bernie Sanders by 19 Points in Iowa; Ohio Governor Speaks Out on Immigration; Jimmy Carter Battling Cancer; U.S. Launches First ISIS Strikes from Turkish Air Base. Aired 6-6:30a ET

Aired August 13, 2015 - 06:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

[05:58:27] UNIDENTIFIED MALE: A shockwave just blew through our apartment.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Dozens dead, hundreds injured in a series of huge explosions.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The results from a new CNN/ORC poll.

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Now I'm No. 1 by quite a margin.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Hillary Clinton will probably face a challenge.

JEFF ZELENY, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: Are they underestimating Bernie Sanders?

DANA BASH, CNN CHIEF CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: You sound like a Democrat sometimes.

GOV. JOHN KASICH (R-OH), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Well, let me tell you something.

ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: Former President Jimmy Carter has cancer.

DR. SANJAY GUPTA, CNN CHIEF MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: It sounds like it's either in or around the liver.

DON LEMON, CNN ANCHOR: How serious a problem is this?

GUPTA: This is serious. It's remarkable how active he's been. This is certainly going to take a toll.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ANNOUNCER: This is NEW DAY with Chris Cuomo, Alisyn Camerota and Michaela Pereira.

Welcome to NEW DAY. we have breaking news for you this morning. Explosions described as so powerful, they register and earthquakes. 44 people killed by the blasts in China. A number of them firefighters. More than 500 others still in the hospital.

CUOMO: All right. Good morning to you. Welcome to your NEW DAY. It's Thursday, August 13, 6 a.m. in the East. And we do have breaking news for you this morning.

Explosions described as so powerful they've registered as earthquakes. Forty-four people killed by these blasts in China that you're looking at. A number of them. Firefighters, more than 500 others still in the hospital.

MICHAELA PEREIRA, CNN ANCHOR: The explosions happened in northern China at a warehouse that handles hazardous material. Emotions said to be running high on the ground. Families desperately awaiting word on their loved ones. Will Ripley is live in the northern part of China.

Will, we understand when you arrived on scene, you were confronted by some of the local residents there.

WILL RIPLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Michaela, what happened was we were doing a live report, and we had a number of people surround us, and they forced us off the air. Some of them, we believe, were blast survivors, but there were others who appeared to be uniformed security personnel, who were videotaping us. And we have throughout the day seen social media posts about this tragedy are being censored by the Chinese government.

These are pictures that Beijing doesn't want the world to see. The fact that this car could see this kind of damage and beyond that, this civic center building could have its windows blown in, the houses of thousands of people in the city of 15 million also having their windows blown in. You can't see it, but many of those windows have been blown out.

Hundreds of people in the hospital right now. Ten different hospitals treating the wounded. And -- and all of this the result of what is likely looking like a preventable industrial accident.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

RIPLEY (voice-over): This morning horrific video pouring in of a series of catastrophic explosions in a major Chinese port city late Wednesday. Watch this surveillance video obtained by ABC News of a man standing near the entrance of a building. The blast decimating the wall, caving in right on top of him.

The explosions felt miles away, emanating from an industrial warehouse in Tianjin, a city of 15 million two hours south of Beijing. The chemical material inside unknown and dangerous, according to Xinhua, a statewide news agency. Xinhua reporting firefighters are now suspended from tending to the billowing flames, in fear the mysterious chemicals might pose a further threat.

This as the death toll continues rising. Dozens now dead, including firefighters, and more than 500 injured.

"The house collapsed. We didn't know what happened," says one survivor.

During my live report from outside the hospital, tempers flared. A group of apparently distraught survivors, along with security officers demanding to see the pictures on my phone, forcing me off the air. Police don't stop them. Emotions running high.

The massive explosions equivalent to a small earthquake, according to a China data center.

(on camera): When you look around at all the devastation here, it's really remarkable.

(voice-over): The aftermath found far and wide, buildings destroyed and cars are completely charred more than a mile away from the blast site.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

RIPLEY: And you can see the smoke plumes still burning. That fire remains out of control, because it is just not safe for firefighters to tackle it right now because they don't know what toxic chemicals are burning.

And this damage all happening more than a mile away from that explosion, to give you a sense of just how devastating this was.

And we're also learning, newly-confirmed information, that there was a meeting between city officials and factory owners. This is at one of China's industrial centers. That meeting was about the safety of these plants that are handling these hazardous chemicals. That happened just earlier this month.

And now you see this. You see a city that has been rocked by this explosion, Chris, an explosion because of -- because of unsafe, perhaps, working conditions. That's where this investigation will be going in the coming weeks, an issue that China has been dealing with.

These factories that produce all of the lower cost items that get exported, but it often comes with a human toll when there are accidents that end up with lives lost.

CUOMO: All that damage so far from the actual blast site. And as a reminder, you said there are 15 million people living in that city. Will, be safe. We'll check back to you.

Let's turn now to the 2016 presidential race. Numbers don't lie: Donald Trump is the real deal and a real problem for the GOP. A just- released CNN/ORC poll, take a look for yourself. This is the state of the Iowa caucuses. You'll see that's on the Democratic side. You have Clinton, a prohibitive frontrunner there, but Bernie gaining.

On the GOP side, there's a very different story going on, and there are headlines in these numbers. A big change in tone is also happening as many are taking aim at the frontrunner.

We've got all the angles covered. Let's begin with CNN's political reporter, Sara Murray, live in Washington. What do you have for us?

SARA MURRAY, CNN POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Chris.

Well, as you know, when you are the frontrunner like Donald Trump is, it means you have a very big target on your back. And this time it's Senator Rand Paul who's going after the frontrunner. Let's take a look.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MURRAY (voice-over): Donald Trump dominating the airwaves once again this morning.

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: In many cases, I probably identify more as a Democrat.

MURRAY: This time in the form of an attack ad released by rival candidate Senator Rand Paul. The punch thrown as Trump tops the field in Iowa with 22 percent, eight points ahead as his closest rival, Dr. Ben Carson, and a whopping 17 points ahead of Paul, according to the latest CNN/ORC poll of likely caucus goers. But Paul isn't backing down.

SEN. RAND PAUL (R-KY), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Thank you. Thank you.

MURRAY: Even using the limelight at last night's Nashua Town Hall to do his best Trump impression.

[06:05:01] PAUL: My favorite is, "You know the reason I tell women they're ugly is because I'm so good-looking. Everybody knows I'm good-looking. Right?"

MURRAY: Just hours before Paul's event in New Hampshire, Trump spoke with CNN's Jake Tapper about the ongoing sparring match.

TRUMP: You know, you look at a guy like Rand Paul, he's failing in the polls. He's week on the military. He's pathetic on military. Hasn't his whole team been indicted? I mean, I've been reading where this...

JAKE TAPPER, CNN ANCHOR: That's his -- the super PAC that's supporting him.

TRUMP: Yes. They've been indicted. So, you know, he's a mess. There's no question about it.

MURRAY: But last night's political drama wasn't just limited to Trump versus Paul.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Black lives matter! Black lives matter! Black lives matter! UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Black lives matter! Black lives matter!

Black lives matter!

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Black lives matter! Black lives matter! Black lives matter!

MURRAY: Jeb Bush abruptly left his Las Vegas town hall after a crowd of "black lives matter" activists chanted during his exit, their response to his final answer about racial equality.

JEB BUSH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I have a report of empowering people in communities that had no chance. They were told they were assigned to failing schools, and it was very easy to understand why that exists, why people don't think the system works for them.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MURRAY: Now our new CNN poll is showing quite a shakeup in the GOP field in Iowa. Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio falling out of the top five. And one of the people who is climbing is Carly Fiorina. She is tied for fifth place at 7 percent in the polls with Mike Huckabee, so that's a big move for her.

Back to you, Ana.

ANA CABRERA, CNN ANCHOR: All right. Sara Murray in Washington for us, tracking the Republican side.

Let's flip to the Democrats now, Hillary Clinton holding steady. The newly-released CNN/ORC poll, as we showed you earlier, shows she is still leading rival Bernie Sanders in Iowa with a pretty large margin, even after all of the controversy surrounding her e-mail server that's still haunting her campaign.

Will her stronghold, though, ultimately weaken if Joe Biden pops into the race? We turn to CNN's Suzanne Malveaux, live with that angle of the story.

Good morning, Suzanne.

SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, good news for Hillary Clinton if you're looking at Iowa, the first contest on the map, of course. It eluded her last time. But if you take a look at this poll, the first CNN/ORC poll of likely Democratic caucus goers in Iowa finds that Hillary Clinton firmly is in the lead, holding at 50 to 31 percent, Her lead over Senator Bernie Sanders.

Vice President Joe Biden, who is yet to even decide whether he's going to run for the presidency, lands in third place with 12 percent. The rest of the field pretty much flat at 1 percent or less.

We see two big divides in this state, Ana. The Clinton has more than 30 points ahead of Sanders when it comes to women and about the same percentage points above Sanders when it comes to moderates. But this is the stunning turn here. Take a look at New Hampshire, the state that put Hillary Clinton

back in the race in 2008 to give her husband a victory, as well. Well, this other new poll showing that Sanders is taking the lead at 44 percent; Clinton falling to 37 percent; Sanders benefiting from representing neighboring Vermont, obviously.

And all of this is playing out while the FBI is investigating whether or not any rules were broken for Clinton's use of her personal e-mail accounts and the potential release of classified information when she was secretary of state.

Well, even though most voters do feel that Clinton's intentions may have been acceptable, there is a majority, 52 percent, that say her e-mails should be subject to a criminal investigation. Now, 41 percent say no. This is taking a hit on how voters feel about Clinton.

Again, back to Iowa we see Sanders ahead of her when it comes to 35 percent finding him more honest and trustworthy, to -- rather 35 percent to Clinton's 28 percent. And again, striking that Biden, even to announce here, is creeping up behind -- Michaela.

PEREIRA: Yes. Those trustworthy numbers have got to be a concern to the Hillary camp, for sure.

Suzanne, great to have you with us.

While Donald Trump dominates the headlines, Ohio Governor John Kasich is quietly moving up in the polls. A recent poll showing him near third in New Hampshire, just six points behind Trump. Kasich considers himself a moderate conservative, supporting exceptions for abortion. He's also open to a path for citizenship for undocumented immigrants.

CNN's chief congressional correspondent Dana Bash had a chance to talk to him one-on-one with Ohio's governor.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BASH: Immigration.

KASICH: Yes.

BASH: You talked about granting citizenship to -- ultimately, to some undocumented immigrants.

KASICH: No, that's not...

BASH: You said, "I'm not opposed to it."

KASICH: Right.

BASH: "Everybody in this country needs to feel like they have an opportunity."

KASICH: Right. BASH: Explain what your position is.

KASICH: Well, I would prefer for them to be legalized once we find out who they are. Because I think they contribute a lot to America. They're hard workers. They're God-fearing. They're family- oriented. If they committed a crime, they've got to be deported or put in prison.

The only reason I say that is we have to solve this, but I don't favor citizenship, because as I teach my kids, you know, you don't jump the line to get into a Taylor Swift concert.

BASH: So you're leaving the door open to citizenship?

KASICH: Let me be clear: I don't favor it. And look, the congressman from Ohio, somebody says if someone comes in illegally and they have a kid and the kid is a citizen, maybe we shouldn't do that. But I think we need to get over that. I'm not for it any more. I'd let these people who are born here be citizens, and that's the end of it. I don't want to dwell there anymore.

[06:10:14] BASH: Let's talk a little bit about foreign policy. There was another beheading at the hands of ISIS. If you were sitting in the Oval Office now, would you commit more ground troops, American ground troops?

KASICH: I would be working to get the other countries to jump in and join us. I don't want to go alone.

BASH: There are a lot of people, as you well know, who are reluctant to do anything more.

KASICH: Well, I'm not one of them. Look, let me tell you what I would do. First of all, I would have supported the rebels in Syria that were willing to top Assad.

Secondly, I would have a coalition of other countries, including us, on the ground beginning to degrade and destroy ISIS. Because as you begin to do it, that whole caliphate begins to fall apart in my judgment.

Thirdly, I want to praise Chuck Schumer to the high heaven. He may not like it, but I think he's shown great courage on this deal with Iran.

And my greatest fear there is we are going to revive their economy. They're going to have many dollars to give to many radical groups who work against our interests and the interests of a lot of our friends.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CUOMO: Dana Bash getting some good information out of John Kasich. And now you can decide whether or not that resonates with you. Let's bring in our CNN political reporters. We've got Sara

Murray joining us again to break down these new poll numbers. Headlines in there to go through. And we have Patricia Murphy, columnist for "The Daily Beast." Good to have you, Patricia.

All right, Sara. Let's take a look at these numbers. The big headline, I don't think, is Trump. He's the real deal. He's out on top. We see it. I want to talk about, Sara, what happened to Jeb Bush. Jeb Bush a month ago, we were saying, well, you know, he's probably going to be the guy. To what do you account that he is now in the bottom of this polling?

MURRAY: Well, if you look at some of the people who are on top, they are Ben Carson; Carly Fiorina; Donald Trump; Ted Cruz, who tried to paint himself as a Washington outsider, there is a theme here. People are looking at the candidates who either are not politicians or trying to cast themselves outside of the normal mold of a politician.

It is very difficult for Jeb Bush to do that when that is the sentiment right now. Look, his dad was president. His brother was president. It's hard to call him anything but an establishment candidate. And I don't think that's what the Iowa voters in Iowa are getting really excited about right now.

Now, the one caveat that I would mention is our poll also shows two-thirds of Iowa voters still are not sure who they're going to vote for. So this is still a very fluent field. It's hard to say right now that people have definitely made up their minds, but you know, in the early -- in the sort of, like, early look, it doesn't look like Jeb Bush is doing great in Iowa.

CUOMO: Sara is smarter than I am, but I'm going to be more provocative, Patricia. And here's why.

I think that the narrative may be worse for Jeb Bush at this particular time. Let's put up another number about why people are resonating with Trump. And let's say, also, to Sara's point, Carson and Fiorina, we want change. Who's more likely to change? When they say they're voting for Trump, 35 percent of them say that's why. You see here raw score, 44 percent of them say he's more likely to do it. Bush isn't even in contention.

Now, change often means new, whether that's good or not. How does Jeb Bush deal with this just on name alone?

PATRICIA MURPHY, COLUMNIST, "THE DAILY BEAST": I honestly don't know how Jeb Bush deals with this at this point. When you look at the money that he has already raised, when you look at the fact that people consider him the frontrunner, when he's assumed to be very electable, somebody who could take Republicans into the White House if he got to a general election.

And he is at 5 percent in Iowa at this point with near-universal name I.D. You've got to start thinking about skipping Iowa. And somebody who skips Iowa is going to have a really hard time winning this nomination. You can't just write off conservatives. You can't just say, "No, I'm going to cut off that part of the electorate. I don't care," because that is where the energy is. That's where the ideas are. Those are the people who are going to get this nominee across the finish line.

Those are people who need to come out and vote. Those are the people that you need their energy and those are the people who just don't like Jeb Bush.

When you talk to people who like Donald Trump, for example, they like the fact that he is not only a fresh face to the scene. They also like the way he talks. They like the things that he says. The fact that he takes such a strong position on so many issues. And you give them these numbers, they beat Trump on the economy, immigration, on terrorism. They trust him on the issues, as well as what he's saying and the way he's saying it.

So Jeb Bush is very difficult to see what he does, other than just hang in there. Campaigning in Iowa, getting him into some small crowds and just try to start to change some minds. But 5 percent is a disaster for Jeb Bush at this point in Iowa.

CUOMO: Sara, also a function of this is trusting Trump, because as a function of how little they trust anybody else. And while Patricia is making a good pragmatic point about skipping it practically, Jeb Bush can't skip Iowa. He's got to be there or people say he's an "also ran."

The -- the problem with women that Trump has, now there's this little bit bubbling under the surface there, beyond the numbers, about whether or not he can put out this proof that he actually does hire and pay women in a way that shows that he cares on a level that matters, which may change things. But right now in the general, how bad is it for him with women?

[06:15:05] MURRAY: Look, if you are a Republican and you want to win the White House, you need to win women and you need to win them by a lot. Because he reality is, it's very difficult for Republicans to win the Hispanic vote. So you have to make up with -- make up for that with other demographic groups.

The fact that Trump is already trailing with women, the fact that he's made so many controversial comments about women, as more people tune in and more people hear about that, it's possible we'll see him start to trail even more. That is a big problem if you want to win the election. Maybe you can win the Republican nomination that way, but you can't win the White House that way.

So if Donald Trump is serious about this and serious about winning the presidency, and I'm in his circle of advisers, that's something that I'm working on right now. How do we prove that this candidate will be good for women? That some of the comments he's made offhand or in a Howard Stern interview do not reflect how he actually feels.

CUOMO: Sara Murray, you do know that we are now discussing what Donald Trump needs to do to become president of the United States. A month ago we were having a different conversation. That shows why you have to cover politics incrementally.

One last point that's a big headline for this morning. Patricia, do you think it is any coincidence that, just after the mention of the e-mail server being turned over, we get a new poll and we get new numbers on trustworthiness, and Clinton takes another hit? Remember, the open question was, would turning over the server, would that help or hurt? What's the tale now?

MURPHY: I don't think it's a coincidence at all, and that is because this has been the story line for Hillary Clinton for many months now. And the problem for her is that this is going to be a story line for Hillary Clinton for many more months. Just the incremental release of the e-mails off of her server. The fact that the FBI has requested that they actually get the server.

When you are having polls by Monmouth University that talk about should there be a criminal investigation into your behavior, that is deeply troubling for Hillary Clinton. It's also deeply troubling for the Democrats, because they see these poll numbers. These are the honest and trustworthy numbers going down, down, down just a little bit every time. And they know they really don't have a Plan B at this point.

So when you're a Democrat seeing this, it's very climactic (ph), and the way that Clinton is responding to these -- to these allegations, it feels a little bit -- it feels dishonest, just the way that they are clamping down. It doesn't feel forthcoming, and she's not doing herself any favors. She's certainly not doing Democrats any favors the way she's handling this.

CUOMO: Fifty-two percent said they should be subject to criminal investigation. Patricia Murphy, welcome to NEW DAY.

Sara, thanks for making us smarter, as always. Check back with you in a little bit.

Now, for all your political news, one place to go: CNNPolitics.com -- Mick.

PEREIRA: All right, Chris. New details emerging this morning on the health of Jimmy Carter and his fight with cancer. America's 39th president had surgery to remove a mass from his liver earlier this week. That's when doctors discovered the cancer.

The 90-year-old Carter revealing it has spread to other parts of his body.

For more on President Carter's condition and his prognosis, we turn to Martin Savidge, who's live outside the Carter Center in Atlanta -- Martin.

MARTIN SAVIDGE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Michaela.

We've had no further updates from the Carter Center here on the president's condition, although it is expected to come at some particular point. It was the president himself who announced his diagnosis in a

statement yesterday. Let me read part of it. It says, quote, "Recent liver surgery revealed that I have cancer that is now in other parts of my body. I'll be rearranging my schedule as necessary."

The president is expected to undergo treatment here in Atlanta. Of course, what we don't know is what kind of cancer. Mr. Carter's family has a long and painful history with pancreatic cancer. He lost his sister and two brothers to that. His mom died of cancer, as well. He's 90 going on 91, as you mentioned. That could sort of alter the kind of regimen he could go through. Not to say that he can't successfully make it through cancer treatment.

Well wishes have been pouring in. It was President Obama who put a statement out, saying, "Michelle and I send our best wishes to President Carter for a fast and full recovery. Jimmy, you're as resilient as they come. And along with the rest of America, we are rooting for you."

Democrats, Republicans, celebrities, fans of all sorts have been also adding to their well wishes and messages of support. Finally, I'll show you a political cartoon that was put out by Michael Luckovich of "The Atlanta Journal-Constitution" and shows a person, putting what looks like a campaign sign in their front yard that actually reads "Jimmy Carter for cancer survivor." Carter's grandson immediately retweeted that. A lot of people would say, amen to those wishes.

Back to all of you -- Ana.

CABRERA: All right. Martin Savidge reporting live for us. Our wishes are also with the Carter family.

Some breaking news overnight. ISIS claiming responsibility now for carrying out a deadly blast in Baghdad. A truck bomb exploding at a crowded market. CNN now confirming 36 people are dead, 75 injured. And reports emerging to bring the death toll much higher in the predominantly Shia area that has been victim to several attacks by these terrorist groups.

CUOMO: All right. We have something new to tell you in the fight against ISIS in Syria. Manned U.S. fighter planes launching airstrikes from a base in neighboring Turkey for the first time. Turkey, you'll remember, finally agreed just weeks ago to open its military bases to U.S.-led forces fighting the terror group.

[06:20:10] We now have CNN senior international correspondent Nick Paton Walsh. He joins us live from Turkey near the base.

Nick, what's the status?

NICK PATON WALSH, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Chris, you join me as two F-16 jets have just landed on the runway behind us here, circling above us moments ago. I can't tell if they're American or Turkish. They both use this this air base. But it's the Americans who've got six F-16s. Now they've started to using this base for attack runs, instead

15 minutes now away from Syrian air space. Quite a remarkable reduction in the flying time to be flying from elsewhere in the Gulf. Now they can use that advantage to stay in the air a lot longer, to refuel faster, to reload their munitions faster, too.

We know that the strikes that began yesterday hit inside Syria multiple targets. But it's going to be a key advantage for the United States moving forward. They've had a lot of complex negotiations with Turkey to get this space. Turkey wants a safe zone just across the border they can clear out of ISIS and the Kurdish forces they also don't like who are fighting alongside the Americans on the ground as their ground troops and coalition are there.

But this key advantage now we can see is a very busy morning behind me here. A lot of movement in the background. The United States clearly making the best use of this particular advantage they now have in their hands.

Back to you, Michaela.

PEREIRA: All right. Thank you for that.

Back here at home, temperatures on the rise out west. Those hot readings are heading to the northeast for the weekend, and some severe weather could fire up in the upper Midwest.

Let's turn to Jennifer Grey, our meteorologist, to look at the forecast. Already talking to my folks back west are bracing for a heat wave there.

JENNIFER GREY, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Yes, absolutely. The fire danger remaining high, as well.

The story today, we are looking at high pressure across the country's midsection. That's going to be the best weather. Storms across the Midwest as well as Florida. Throughout the day we'll start to see a couple of isolated showers fire up with the heating.

But mainly Florida. That's the good news. South Florida in an extreme drought, Miami included. And they could pick up a couple of inches of rain through Saturday, which will be a welcome sight.

On the flip-side, though, very hot conditions. That ridge of high pressure in the west. That's going to result in a high fire danger. We already have about 43 large fires burning in the west. And so red-flag warnings anywhere from Washington state all the way down to California.

The concern in eastern Washington is going to be lightning strikes. The wind is going to be the major concern in southern sections -- Chris.

CUOMO: All right, thank you very much. Appreciate it. We'll check back with you. Tell us if anything changes. All right. So Donald Trump is on top in Iowa. That's the

obvious part. But this new poll shows some new realities. We're going to tell you why the numbers may be a window into the future. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[06:27:20] PEREIRA: It would appear everything is coming up rosy for Donald Trump in Iowa. The latest CNN/ORC poll has the businessman at the top of the crop. Also leads the major issues facing voters, despite being light on actual policy details.

Let's dig through it with CNN political analyst and editor in chief at "The Daily Beast," Mr. John Avlon. A beast at The Wall, I'm told, too.

JOHN AVLON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Oh, yes.

PEREIRA: So we're at the Magic Wall, digging through top issues in the 2016 race: economy, foreign policy, immigration. But interesting to see how low social issues are playing for Donald Trump.

AVLON: That's exactly right. Not only Donald Trump, but this is likely among Republican caucus goers. Social issues, which dominate so much the conservative movements debate a distant fourth in terms of top priorities. That's a fascinating dynamic. And it plays to some of Donald Trump's strengths to help avoid his weaknesses.

PEREIRA: Let's dig in, shall we? At the top -- there we go. At the top we have the economy. Obviously, there's a little sound we can get from Donald Trump.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: We're going to be taking jobs outside. We're going to be taking them away from China, away from all of these countries that are stealing from us. I mean, they're stealing our base, our money, our manufacturing. We're going to be bringing it back to the United States.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PEREIRA: OK. So here's the question: is that substantive enough for voters?

AVLON: Of course not, but it doesn't matter right now. It's not a surprise that Donald Trump is winning this measure. He is famously a rich guy. He's famous for being a rich guy on reality TV, so people look at that. They associate economic strength.

So what's interesting is, if you listen to that side, which you could, you know, ferret out some policy in there, it's a protectionist trade stance. It's somewhere between Bernie Sanders and Pat Buchanan. It is far from market economics, but he's got the reputation for being a very successful wealthy businessman and as a result, runs away with the economy. PEREIRA: All right. Let's move on. We also know that this is

somewhere else, that Donald Trump is coming up strong at 21 percent. He hasn't said much about his plans to combat ISIS, for example, recently coming out with some policy.

AVLON: Yes.

PEREIRA: Let us take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: I would take their oil away. I would take their money away.

CUOMO: How do you take the oil?

TRUMP: I would go in and take the oil. And I'd put troops to protect the oil. I would absolutely go in. I'd take some money source away. And believe me, they would start to wither; and they would collapse.

PEREIRA: So then the question is here, is that a plan that he can sell both to the American public and then also to the military?

AVLON: No and no. But here's a really important point. This is a great example of strong and wrong. There is decisive action, as opposed to a lot of the dithering and miscommunication about ISIS that continues to fester.

Do the American people support doubling down on the Middle East, troops on the ground in Syria and Iraq? No. However, he is able to make that case strongly. The military, including General Ray Odierno, says, "Hey, pal, not that."

PEREIRA: Kind of like the funding. We know that that that is a smart strategy by cutting off the oil.

AVLON: Cutting off the funding works, from the mafia to foreign wars, absolutely true. But putting troops on the ground to secure those oil fields, light them all on fire, the military saying, "Hey, pal, it doesn't quite work that way."

PEREIRA: And not only that. The American public has not much of a tolerance for another war at this point. Immigration. We know that he said a few things on immigration...