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Trump Likely to Win the Republican Nomination?; U.S. Gives Ultimatum to Iraq Over Russia. Aired 6:30-7a ET

Aired October 22, 2015 - 06:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[06:30:00] ERROL LOUIS, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: I don't know, I'll look into it. Maybe I'll do this, maybe I'll do that.

No other candidate would be given such a pass. So, let's acknowledge he has absolutely no idea what he's going to do. And he'll just say whatever comes up in the course of conversation.

We in the media have accepted this as normal. But you can see the frustration in comments from people like Jeb Bush who have spent a lifetime sort of developing some kind of expertise in government that you that don't just make this stuff up as you go along.

Now, they're going to be a lot of outrage --

CHRIS CUOMO, CNN ANCHOR: But they do. But they do it all the time. That's how people feel that politics will look you in the eye and say whatever the hell they think you want to hear. They think Trump is a refreshing departure from that because that because he owns -- he's saying, look, this is how I feel about it. I'm not saying it to impress you, I'm saying it to impress me, essentially.

That's where the Merry Christmas thing comes in from. He looks at evangelicals. He says, I'm a good Christian. And it's going to be hard to vet, right, because they all live their faith and all that. But he says, Merry Christmas, when I'm in there, it's back, baby. That is music to their ears.

MAGGIE HABERMAN, PRESIDENTIAL CORRESPONDENT, NEW YORK TIMES: It is. Except what's not music to their ears, and someone is going to say it, it's three marriages. What's not music to their ears --

CUOMO: Why? They believe in divorce.

HABERMAN: They don't believe -- look at Giuliani and how he did in Iowa. Seriously. Rudy Giuliani's personal life became an issue.

Donald Trump's personal life is going to become an issue. It's how you live and whenever you have lived a faithful life. And I think it's going to be harder for Donald Trump to make that case and it is going to be for some other candidates to make that case.

This is a potential vulnerability where people can criticize him. Now, it's going to take somebody who's gong to feel safe criticizing him in this way and we have not seen anybody feel very safe taking him so far. I think that's really the question, is who sort of raises issues about Donald Trump that could be potentially disqualifying.

CUOMO: In fact, we have a big shot from the evangelical community come on the show. He was very even about it, look, we're open to everybody. Open to everybody and we believe that he has some bona fides. He's a person of faith.

LOUIS: When we see somebody and we've identified them, for example, as a labor voter, a single mom or so forth. Nobody is just one thing. You have these contending sort of impulses and so forth.

So, they maybe much prefer somebody making comments about Muslims, or making these kinds of comments about border security and so forth, than they really care about whether or not they're too evangelical. I mean, he's clearly not one of them. I think Meg is actually right about that.

HABERMAN: I mean, that's I think the issue. I think it's a bit of a litmus test for evangelic voters. That's all I'm saying.

I think on other issues, where Trump is able to say, this is who I am. Take it or leave it. Absolutely, I think it's great on his proposal. Or on the other hand, I'm going to say, you know, maybe I'll look at it a different way.

He gets away with saying things to your point, that we've not seen any other politicians do. The problem he is having right now I think, and you saw a little bit of it this week when there were some questions about the super PAC that's supporting him and how exactly that arrangement was set up and how the person running it actually has a relationship previously with his campaign manager. His campaign manager denied it at first and then had to own up to it.

When Trump's brand is not being a regular politician, when he does things seem like a regular politician, the question and do voters get enough information about that? That is where the question becomes, will this lead last? Can it ride into the Iowa caucuses or does it begin to chip away slowly?

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: Maggie, Errol, thank you. Good to see you.

HABERMAN: Thank you.

CAMEROTA: What's your take on all of this? Particularly Trump's evangelical appeal. Does he have one? Please tweet us #NewDayCNN, or post your comment on Facebook.com/NewDay.

CUOMO: All right. Here's something no one would have asked a few months ago, is he not only going to keep his lead? Will Donald Trump be a lock for the Republican nomination? Why is he maybe the most electable GOP candidate?

We're going to have both sides of this tested now that he's hit 100 days atop the polls.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[06:38:11] CAMEROTA: Hillary Clinton preparing to testify before the house select committee on Benghazi. The Democratic presidential front-runner facing at least eight hours of questions today, Clinton has said the Republican-led committee is just leading a political crusade to bring her down. New CNN polling out this morning suggests Americans agree, 72 percent think the investigation is political. But 59 percent also say they are dissatisfied with how Clinton has handled the Benghazi attack.

CUOMO: Secretary of State John Kerry wrapping up talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Germany this morning. Kerry is hoping to stop a wave of violence between Palestinians and Israelis. Violence that Netanyahu blames on the Palestinian authority and Hamas.

Just this morning, police shot two Palestinians, who stabbed an Israeli man after trying to board a bus full of children. The attackers are in custody and the victim is expected to recover.

CAMEROTA: We do have some breaking news overnight. An Albuquerque police officer rushed to the hospital after being shot several times during a traffic stop. No word on the officer's condition at this hour. A suspect is in custody following an hour's long manhunt.

Meanwhile, charges have been filed against the suspect in that deadly shooting of police officer Randolph Holder. Police say Tyrone Howard with a long rap sheet shot the 33-year-old in the head Tuesday night.

All right. If you thought it was only a matter of time before Donald Trump's lead would evaporate, you were wrong. Consider this -- he has now been on top of the national polls for 100 days straight. Trump said even he's surprised.

So, is he the most electable Republican? We'll look at the numbers.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[06:43:51] CAMEROTA: All right. Listen up all you pundits who predicted his demise -- Donald Trump has been dominating national polls for more than 100 days straight now. Does this mean he'll be the Republican nominee?

Let's look at the trends with CNN political director David Chalian.

David, great to see you.

DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Good morning.

CAMEROTA: OK. Let's look at the trend. Let's start when this all begun in July. If we looked back then, Donald Trump was below Jeb Bush and Ben Carson. But look at what has happened in the three months since, and his predominant lead.

What do you see, David?

CHALIAN: First and foremost, what I see there, nobody has challenged that lead in that entire time. It's not like he got the lead and then slipped and had to fight for it, Alisyn. He clearly rose to the top and has stayed in the dominant driver's seat of the election. He sets the terms of the debate every day and he continues to rally support to his side.

CAMEROTA: All right. Let's look at the next one. This is an interesting comparison. Look at where Mitt Romney was at this time in the race.

CUOMO: Here's Romney, starting up here.

CAMEROTA: Right. Look what happened. By the same time, mid- October, Trump is higher than where the party's nominee was?

[06:45:00] CUOMO: Now, David, one of the blessings of having you on the show is your ability to demonstrate not just the what, but the why. In your analysis, why is Donald Trump able to get to a height that Romney never was and how does that carry over into his advantage in the current field?

CHALIAN: So, here's what I think is going on here, Chris.

Remember, if we were to layer in now all the other candidates that Mitt Romney ran against at that time, he had different people shooting up ahead of him, because the Republican Party was never thrilled with Mitt Romney. It was never enthusiastic about Mitt Romney. It was sort of the guy that was next up. And they got enthusiastic, once they got in the general election and he was the guy against Obama, of course.

But during the nomination season when Michele Bachmann sprouted up, or Herman Cain came up, Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney was constantly trying to shoo away folks that were generating more excitement, albeit somewhat briefly. Donald Trump is the excitement guy.

So what you're seeing there, he's achieved a certain higher level of support than Mitt Romney ever had. And he's doing that, to get to the why, Chris, the most enthusiastic voters are Trump voters.

CUOMO: That's interesting. So, Chalian is laying out that if you take a Bachman, a Cain, a Perry that had their moments, they all kind of like baby Trump blimps, and he is the embodiment of all of those different sympathies that they had.

CAMEROTA: Baby blimp, I like that.

OK. Let's talk about whether or not that means that Trump will be the Republican nominee? That question was asked by ABC/"Washington Post" this week, and 42 percent of respondents believe that he's most likely to win the GOP nomination, David?

CHALIAN: This is the most eye-popping number of the entire week. We've seen a slew of polls this week, guys. Some things are consistent across all of them. Donald Trump's dominance one of them.

But the fact that Republican voters have gone from not believing that this guy can be a winner, despite, of course, we know that Donald Trump loves calling himself a winner constantly, to actually being the guy that a large swath of Republicans believe, not only will be the nominee, but would be the best general election nominee that could win the White House, also by the same kind of margin. Republicans in that ABC News/"Washington Post" poll, I think 42 percent of them said he can be the next president.

And when you ask about any other guy in the field or gal in the field on the Republican side, their chances of becoming the next president, I mean, he dwarfs them by nearly 30 points.

CUOMO: Well, that's his point, right? His currency is what? Authenticity, that in a business where people dismiss everyone here as inauthentic and on the Democrats side also.

CAMEROTA: Not everyone. I mean, Carson they also think --

CUOMO: No, no, but I'm saying these guys, the people who have done this before.

CAMEROTA: Politicians.

CUOMO: Yes. As a class, you are authentic. He really is what he says he is.

You go to Trump, you say, well, you know, we'll see what happens. What do you mean see what happens, Chalian, I lead every way you can measure and I've been doing it for months? When does that analysis have to go away?

CHALIAN: Listen, I think it has gone away. Donald Trump on today's facts is clearly more well-positioned to become the Republican nominee than anybody else in the field right now.

Now, might that change -- one thing that I'm curious to look at, Chris, is to see how he converts this poll dominance into the organization on the ground you that need to actually turn out voters, especially if he is going to be relying on voters who don't normally come out, trudge through the snow in Iowa to come out to caucuses and stand there for a meeting and get their candidate going off the launching pad.

So, now will come the organizational test for Donald Trump. But don't -- you should not be surprised, he's investing in that. He's building that. They are building a real organization. And the test will come to see if it converts.

CAMEROTA: All right. David Chalian, thanks so much for analyzing it for us.

CHALIAN: Sure.

CUOMO: So, another big story we've been following is the concern of Russia getting involved in Syria. Well, the U.S. just gave Iraq an ultimatum about what they should do or not do vis-a-vis Russia. Meanwhile, Russia is rolling out the red carpet to Syria's Assad.

We have a reaction from the ambassador when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[06:53:33] CUOMO: If Russia helps you, we will not. That is the U.S. to Iraq on reports some Iraqi officials are considering asking Russia to hit ISIS in their country, just like it's doing in Syria, if you believe that they are.

Joining us now is former U.S. ambassador to Iraq and Turkey and visiting fellow at the Washington Institute, Ambassador James Jeffrey.

It's good to have you with us, sir.

Let me give you the state of play, according to the American people, when it comes to fighting the war on terror. In terms of, what do you think, is U.S. military action against is going badly -- 67 percent now, 61 percent in May, 58 percent in February. The story clear, people think increasingly, it is going badly. Worried military action against ISIS will develop into a larger war. Three quarters of the people say worried.

Does Barack Obama have a clear plan to deal with is? No. That's the state of play. Do you believe people have it right, Mr. Ambassador?

JAMES JEFFREY, FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO IRAQ AND TURKEY: Yes, they do. Many of us who have been close to this, feel that we could be using a lot more military force. We could be using the same rules that the U.S. military used to help Afghans take the city of Kunduz two weeks ago.

But more importantly, it's the Iraqi people and government who believe the same thing, that we're not doing the same thing that we can be doing against ISIS in Iraq. And that's the danger with Russia coming in now.

CUOMO: Is it wrong to say, don't use Russia to go after ISIS?

[06:55:01] The theory in Syria is, Russia, we don't like what you're doing, says the United States, because we think you're really trying to help Assad not fight ISIS. You don't have that rationale in Iraq.

JEFFREY: Well, the U.S. is right to say that because Russia isn't about fighting ISIS in the first instance. It's about creating an alliance with Iran and Assad of Syria and driving the United States and its allies out of the region.

But the United States can say, we'll leave if you ask the Russians to come in. And at the same time, not say, we'll do whatever it takes to stop really beating ISIS back. We haven't said that. We haven't done that. And if we don't do that, the Iraqis are going to look towards Russia regardless of what they've told me and what they've told General Dunford.

CUOMO: So, what is your position and the White House saying we have done more than anybody else? We have been the biggest friend to Iraq. We are doing the most to fight ISIS in the region, militarily, financially, any way you measure it?

JEFFREY: We have done a great deal to help Iraq in the last year. But we've done it in a hesitant manner. We've done it in a low-risk manner. We have not provided the military muscle that is needed to very rapidly push ISIS back. Eventually, perhaps we'll succeed.

But time isn't on our side. That's what we see with Russia's intervention a month ago in Syria. Now, potentially in Iraq.

If we don't move out quickly and start driving back ISIS from areas of western Iraq, I feel that the Iraqis will turn to the Russians.

CUOMO: And by move out, you mean actually move in, get more involved on the ground. But how do you square that strategy with the fact that over half the American people still say we don't want American boots on the ground?

JEFFREY: Well, I'm not talking about large numbers of American boots. We have American boots on the ground in Afghanistan. We have 10,000 of them. Where's the American protest against that?

We had American advisers, Special Forces team in the front lines for the battle for Kunduz. Why don't we do it in Iraq?

Nobody can give a good explanation of why. Up until knew, we had the luxury of just basically waging a conflict on a long-term basis. Putin and his chess move has suddenly taken that option away from us.

CUOMO: What do you believe is the motivation for the White House, specifically, President Obama, to not do the things that you're saying seem obvious?

JEFFREY: President Obama, in my view does not believe in the efficacy of military action to solve any problem. He doesn't believe it will work for us and hasn't in the past. And he doesn't believe it will work for Putin.

I think he's wrong. More importantly, Putin thinks he's wrong.

CUOMO: And how do you believe that, in terms of reconciling it with the idea of what we're fighting ISIS, with those who are against ISIS see as the enemy is really an ideology, is really the disposing of the disenfranchised and using faith to make them into soldiers and that you can't beat that with a bomb?

JEFFREY: Yes, you can. We had the same problem with al Qaeda since went 2001. And military force has beaten down al Qaeda and rendered it incapable of launching serious attacks.

The ideology is still there. I spent most of my adult life in the Middle East. It's always going to be there. I don't think we can defeat it. I think only people in the region long term can defeat it. What you can do is deal with the manifestations of it.

ISIS is a state, it's an army. You defeat states and armies with military force.

CUOMO: And you've said that before that the people there have to deal with the ideology. We have to make it safe -- the United States has to make it safe for them to take it on.

Ambassador, thank you for your perspective. We'll have you back again.

JEFFREY: Thank you very much.

CUOMO: That's a big story.

There's a lot of news this morning. This is the big day Hillary Clinton takes on the Benghazi committee, so let's get to it.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CUOMO: Hillary Clinton expected to face a grilling this morning.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The longest running select committee investigation in U.S. history.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The committee itself is under investigation.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Their worst mistake would be to try to bully her.

HILLARY CLINTON, FORMER SECRETARY OF STATE: The fact is you have four dead Americans, what difference at this point does it make?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The newest Trump controversy is about comments he made about the war in Afghanistan.

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We made a terrible mistake getting involved there in the first place. We made a mistake going into Iraq. I've never said --

CAMEROTA: Our question was about Afghanistan. That's --

TRUMP: Well, OK, I never said that. OK. Wouldn't matter.

CUOMO: Caught on tape, a police officer being viciously stabbed in a gas station parking lot.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Eighty percent of that video, I can't remember.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ANNOUNCER: This is NEW DAY with Chris Cuomo, Alisyn Camerota and Michaela Pereira.

CAMEROTA: Good morning, everyone. Welcome back to your NEW DAY.

In just hours, Hillary Clinton will testify before the House Select Committee on Benghazi. There's plenty of criticism to go around on both sides, including for the politically charged atmosphere after several Republicans indicated that it was purely focused on bringing Clinton's numbers down during her White House bid.