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Heat Flash Detected at Time Russian Plane Crashed; Carson Leads Trump in Second National Poll. Aired 7-7:30a ET

Aired November 03, 2015 - 07:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

STARR: So it was the plane. Something associated with the plane, they believe. What was it? Did it happen in midair? Could it have been an engine or a fuel tank exploding or did it happen on the ground? Did they simply record the impact of the airliner hitting the ground? There would have been a good deal of heat associated with that.

[07:00:22] Now U.S. military and intelligence officials analyzing all of this very technical, very classified data to try and put the picture together and try and figure out what it means. Midair, that might mean one thing. It could mean some kind of bomb. Perhaps, we have heard that word used here. But absolutely no evidence at this point, no conclusion.

Now, NTSB officials are telling our own Rene Marsh that they have spoken to the Egyptians, and they are willing to participate in the investigation. The engines of the aircraft are American made; and that would give the NTSB a way into this if the Egyptians agree.

Back to you guys.

PEREIRA: Urgency to get answers for those families of the loved ones that were on board. But of course, we know these investigations take time.

Barbara, thank you for that.

Meanwhile, officials with Russia's Metrojet Airlines insist that human error and technical issues could not have caused the crash, even though aviation experts say it's way too early to make that call. CNN's international diplomatic editor, Nic Robertson, tracking that part of the story for us. He is live in Saint Petersburg, Russia -- Nic.

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: Good morning, Michaela.

What we're hearing here from Russian officials that they will neither confirm nor deny the reports of this thermal flash. They say that it should be waited until the investigation is complete. They're working with the Egyptians. The Egyptians have the black boxes. They say the black boxes show no signs of damage. They're pointing to the ongoing investigation there to reveal all the details that they say will be necessary. The airline company itself under federal aviation investigation here

now because of late payments over the past two months. An executive from Metrojet had said that the payments were late because of the poor state of the economy of the country, an indication of the U.S. and European sanctions on Russia because of its actions inside Ukraine.

But nevertheless, the Federal Aviation Authority is looking into all the monetary aspects, the economic viability of this company at the moment to see if that could be a contributing factor. They've also looked at the airline's other two aircraft. Those have passed inspection, so those are back in service.

And of course today, the difficult and harrowing process of identifying bodies, 196 have been returned to far, of which 9 have been identified. Two of those children, both girls, one age 10 and one age 14 -- Chris.

CUOMO: And Nic, you know, you end with what matters most, of course. What has to drive this curiosity is answers for those families and justice for those lives lost, if it is appropriate. So let's get some more with David Soucie, CNN aviation analyst and former FAA accident investigator and inspector.

David, while we wait for answers, the good news is they have the black boxes. They believe they are intact. What will you know conclusively when that information is downloaded?

DAVID SOUCIE, CNN AVIATION ANALYST: As soon as the boxes come out, Chris, it will be put against a time line. That time line will show various things throughout the aircraft. So you have information from each of the engines: the rotation, the speed of the engines, how much vibration is going on in those engines. You'll know what's going on with the flight controls.

So if there's a separation, something out of normal, they're looking for anomalies that would be outside of the normal flight path. So for example, if the aircraft broke apart in the air, you'd see a difference in the flight control position, versus the flight control itself and where they're disconnected. So that would tell you a lot of information on what happened in the air, as well as the dissent and the previous information, the ascent. As they were climbing, was there something abnormal going into that particular situation?

CUOMO: And obviously, they also have the ambient recording, so if there was an explosion, you'd hear that, as well. The rate of ascent at the beginning of this flight is a question of confusion. What do you see in the data?

SOUCIE: What I see is that there's -- it's a little bit anomalous. It's a little different than what you might see. Each pilot, as they take off, this isn't something you push a button and do. it's something that you take on. Various things can affect that ascent: whether or not there's traffic in the area. Sometimes the air traffic controller will tell them to ascend more quickly so that when they get to their flight altitude, they'll avoid some kind of nearness with another aircraft. So I don't see that as anything really abnormal at this point, Chris.

CUOMO: Speculation of previous tail strikes. What is the data? What does it mean?

SOUCIE: This is the most concerning thing to me, actually, Chris, to be honest with you is the fact that this was a major, major structural failure. Tail strikes do happen, and typically, they're followed up with a very thorough inspection, X-rays of the fuselage to make sure that there's not some ongoing hidden cracks within that fuselage.

[07:05:10] In this case, there was significant damage. It was actually visual damage that had to be repaired on the fuselage itself, which is the encapsulating structure.

So this -- in this case, of course, it is 100 percent speculation on my part at this point, other than previous examples. Previous examples would be Aloha Airlines. Aloha Airlines had a fracture based on time. Over time, the failure happened on the fuselage.

In this case, with the repair, you'd be very focused on what happened with that repair. Was it done properly? If flew for a lot of time without cracking, but that doesn't mean that it didn't at this point.

CUOMO: What hit the tail?

SOUCIE: A tail strike is when you take off from the airport, and you rotate too quickly. And when you rotate too quickly, the tail can hit the ground, and the aircraft comes up. Or during landing it can occur, as well. But a tail strike typically occurs during takeoff when you're getting too aggressive about your climb and your V.R., your rotating speed, is anticipated, and you start to rotate before the aircraft clears the ground.

CUOMO: So it happens, but it has to be addressed the right way. And that goes to maintenance record. That goes to finances of the company, and that's why this speculation about whether or not they were paying the pilots factors into the analysis.

The point of this heat signature, I just want to make sure what it doesn't mean. When it came out, it sounded like, oh, they have proof that something fired up from the ground and left the heat signature striking the plane. That's not what it means at all, yes?

SOUCIE: No, not at all. In fact, missiles can be launched without the pick-up of this infrared signature. The infrared signature has to be something very significant. And it's not just the temperature, Chris. It's the rate at which the temperature changes that creates this I.R. affect.

So if it's quick and if it's a long-drawn-out one like a missile launch, it may not even pick that up. This is talking about a very abrupt and quick change in temperature. So that's either going to be an explosion on the aircraft or the impact. In my mind, since there's only one signature, it's more likely the impact of the aircraft hitting the ground. CUOMO: You, along with other experts that we've been hearing over the

course of days, terrorism has gone from probability to possibility. You still feel that way.

SOUCIE: I'm not sure that I do, Chris. The thing that I don't have is the information about what the condition of the passengers on board were. That will give you so much information about it. It has been discounted.

However, there's a lot of passengers that have not been recovered yet. So it's very possible to me, in my mind, that there still is that strong possibility that there was an explosion on board and that it was in the area which the bodies have not been recovered yet. So the jury is still out on that, in my mind.

CUOMO: But of course, an explosion on board could be many things, doesn't have to be terrorism related. So we'll go on the information when we get it and we'll come to you to help us understand it. David Soucie, thank you very much. Appreciate it.

SOUCIE: Thank you, Chris.

CAMEROTA: OK. To politics now. Fresh evidence that Ben Carson is now the frontrunner in the Republican race. For the second time in two weeks, Carson tops Donald Trump in a national poll. But don't count Marco Rubio out. The Florida senator surging in key early state -- in the key early state of New Hampshire.

CNN's Athena Jones is live in Tampa with all the interesting new numbers. Good morning, Athena.

ATHENA JONES, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Alisyn.

And that's right. This is more evidence that Carson is pulling ahead of Trump.

Look at these new numbers. You see Carson at 29 percent, Trump at 23 percent. Marco Rubio is at 11 percent. Now, he's still far off the lead, but it's significant to see him in third place in this poll.

Now, one important bit of context here I want to mention. We say this all the time. Debates matter. And this poll was conducted both before and after last week's CNBC debate. And so the candidates' performances in that debate are not baked into this poll. We'll have to look to future polling to get a clearer picture of how Republican primary voters responded to that debate.

Still, these new numbers suggest that last week's CBS/"New York Times" poll, which also showed Carson in the lead, wasn't an outlier.

Now Donald Trump is still out front in the key early voting state of New Hampshire in the latest Monmouth University poll. If we can put that up on the screen, you see there that Trump leads Carson by ten points in that poll. But then look there at Marco Rubio. He is in third place yet again. But you can see his numbers in New Hampshire have tripled since September. So the story line of Marco Rubio surging, there's more evidence of

that in that poll, as well -- Alisyn.

CAMEROTA: OK, Athena, thanks so much for all of that.

And tonight you'll get two chances to hear from Jeb Bush himself right here on CNN. He'll be on "THE SITUATION ROOM" at 5 p.m. Eastern and again on "AC 360" at 8 p.m. Eastern. Make sure you tune into that.

[07:10:02] PEREIRA: A big road block for the Keystone Pipeline project. TransCanada, the company behind that controversial proposal, has asked the State Department to suspend its review. Company officials say they are working with authorities in Nebraska on changes to the pipeline route.

Keystone opponents, however, accuse TransCanada of trying to delay the process, hoping that a Republican will win the White House. President Obama is expected to reject the project.

CUOMO: Hillary Clinton meeting with the families of young men who have died in controversial shootings. The presidential candidate sitting down with the loved ones of Trayvon Martin and Michael Brown, among others, to discuss criminal justice reform. Trayvon Martin's mom, Sybrina Fulton, called the meeting powerful and productive, with Clinton tweeting that she was, quote, "grateful to spend time with mothers who had lost their children."

CAMEROTA: Here's an interesting story. An Illinois school district denied a transgender student who identifies as a woman access to the girls' locker room. And the federal government says that violates the law. Federal authorities now giving the school one month to provide full access to the girls' locker room or lose federal funding.

The school district says it has done nothing wrong. It calls this ordeal a, quote, "serious overreach" and believe its course of action serves "the dignity and privacy," they say, of all students. This is an interesting one. And it won't be the first case.

PEREIRA: Issues of identity are so important. It's so frustrating to me when people forget to talk to the student, the individual, about their own identity and how they identify. And keep them as part of the process instead of making sort of, you know, "We can't do this. We have to protect other people." What about this person's identity?

CUOMO: It's true, but it's the identity at the risk of other kids' privacy and safety. So you have parents who say...

PEREIRA: Why is safety an issue?

CUOMO: Well, because you have a boy in the girls' locker room, according to the parents of these other kids, right? Because you'll say you identify...

PEREIRA: We need education.

CUOMO: Hasn't been recognized in the law yet as a dispositive way for someone to lead their life. So you have other parents that the school has got to be concerned about. And they say, "Wait a minute. You've got a boy in the girls' locker room with my daughter?"

PEREIRA: Right. That's where education needs to be -- and awareness has to be primary.

CAMEROTA: Yes, I mean, it's a tough one to make every single person on all sides comfortable with this one. But this is the first one going to a federal court. So this precedent will be very interesting to watch.

CUOMO: Won't be the last case. That's for sure. You're seeing more and more of this. And, you know, it's going to start with the parents, with the schools and then society.

All right. So headline for you in politics,: the surgeon is surging. Ben Carson now the leader in a second national poll. Why is his campaign resonating? We test it with team Carson, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[07:16:17] CAMEROTA: Well, it looks like there's a new national frontrunner in the GOP race. A new "Wall Street Journal"/NBC News national poll shows Ben Carson pulling ahead of Donald Trump 29 percent to Trump's 23. It is not the first national poll showing Carson ahead of the brash billionaire. It's the second.

So let's bring in Armstrong Williams. He's Ben Carson's business manager and close friend.

Good morning, Armstrong.

ARMSTRONG WILLIAMS, DR. BEN CARSON'S BUSINESS MANAGER: Good morning, Alisyn.

CAMEROTA: How do you explain now these two national polls that show Dr. Carson in the lead? What do you think is the issue that is resonating with voters?

WILLIAMS: Well, Dr. Carson continues to introduce himself to Americans that are unfamiliar with him, doesn't really understand his rise. And as more and more Americans do background and research and then some of those get to hear him in audiences, on televisions and also platforms, and also read some of the stuff that he writes on different op-eds on the pages of newspapers across the country. They identify with him.

And Dr. Carson has a very deep spiritual connection with people who meet them. They find him to be sincere, honest and quite likable and really down to earth. You know, they -- as what they would expect in a world-renowned pediatrician. You know, it's like people are saying. There's a doctor in the house now, and we like this doctor.

CAMEROTA: Well, Donald Trump is not taking this news of these polls lying down. A few minutes ago, he was on a different morning show and he talked about how he believes Dr. Carson is not suited to be president. Let me play you that.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I think that Ben just doesn't have the experience. Look, you know, I'm going to make the greatest deals you've ever seen on trade. We're going to run the military properly. I'm going to take care of the vets. Ben can't do those things. Ben cannot deal on trade. Ben cannot deal with...

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Why not?

TRUMP: It's not his thing, George. You know, you're born with it. It's not his thing. He hasn't got the temperament for it. It's not the right thing for him.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAMEROTA: Armstrong, let's talk about those things specifically that Trump is saying. I know that it's sometimes easy to dismiss Trump as just criticizing Dr. Carson. But what about the things he says that Dr. Carson has not negotiated deals, that he doesn't have the right temperament and that he doesn't have a lot of experience managing people in his role as a doctor? What about those?

WILLIAMS: It's actually wonderful seeing and hearing Mr. Trump's clip. He's so superb at speaking in sound bites and catchy phrase. One of the things that Dr. Carson understands, that you know, his life story and just speaking in catchy phrases is not enough.

I think one of the other things that this clip made us -- makes us realize, the reason why Dr. Carson continues to surge, is that when you hear Dr. Carson and you hear Mr. Trump, and you hear them in these audiences across the country, Dr. Carson can speak in great detail on the issues of economy, on the issues of trade, on the issues of the grid, on the issues of what's going on in terms of foreign policy and Russia and Syria and what America needs to do.

CAMEROTA: Yes, Armstrong, but I mean, to your point, yes, he can speak about those things. But what about the idea that he hasn't had to negotiate things, that he hasn't -- as a world-renowned surgeon, he hasn't had to manage lots of, you know, disparate people or the military or negotiate trade deals. What about those things specifically?

WILLIAMS: You know, what I find fascinating about that question, Alisyn, is that the people you expect to have negotiated those kinds of, what you consider to be important deals like Mr. Bush, Mr. Rubio, Ms. Fiorina, it seems as though the American people understand very well that Dr. Carson may not have been put in a position of authority where he's had to negotiate them.

[07:20:05] But he's given them the peace that he can put together a team of counselors that have negotiated, that have been at that table, that understands what needs to go into it and the kind of discipline and the kind of insight and the kind of study and the kind of diplomacy to make those things work. I don't think anyone, even including you, as much as you know about

media, and as good as you are at what you do, there's always something that you can learn from someone else who's not even in your profession. None of us are an expert at anything, unless we surround ourselves with people who bring in their different experiences, the different things that have shaped them as who they are today.

And I think that's why this outside is working. Because America feels that, even with all the experience that you speak of, there's something that is very wrong in this country, that's not working for everyday Americans. Our foreign policy is in shambles. The American people are looking for something different.

And you're correct, maybe Dr. Carson does not have the pedigree that you speak of. Can he learn it? Can he surround himself with the people that can bring it? Absolutely he can.

CAMEROTA: Let's talk about the next debate, which is next week. None of the Republican candidates were happy with the last debate, the CNBC debate. So afterward, they all had some suggestions for improvements. Here are Dr. Carson's. I want to put them up on the screen.

He wanted opening and closing remarks, five minutes per candidate. He also wanted the debate time to be 50 minutes, not necessarily two hours, not three hours. He wants no commercials. In fact, he doesn't really even want it to be on television. He prefers that it be streamed on the Internet, and he's calling for fewer debates.

So this morning, Armstrong, which of those is he still pushing for?

WILLIAMS: Well, some of those are quite surprising, Alisyn. In my conversations with Dr. Carson as recently as this morning, the only thing that Dr. Carson advocates is a one-minute opening and closing statement. He feels that two hours are necessary for the debate, in order for people to really get a feel of where the candidates are on the details of the issues.

Dr. Carson would like to have moderators who don't ask "I gotcha" questions. He understands that this process is very important for vetting for the American people, especially given the volume of people that are tuning in.

I think what Dr. Carson is asking for is very reasonable. And when you put a process in place, if the guidelines are 30 seconds, then at the end of 30 seconds, the candidate should not be allowed to go over or talk over the moderator, because in Dr. Carson's world, he will always be respectful of the rules. If you tell him 30 seconds, it will be 30 seconds. He will never interrupt.

And what Dr. Carson wants to have is a moderator and a process in place that respects the rules and guidelines, where everybody is treated equally and the same.

CAMEROTA: Yesterday, President Obama responded to the Republicans making some requests. Let me play for you how President Obama sees these. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Every one of these candidates say, "Obama's weak. He's -- you know, people -- Putin's kicking sand in his face. When I talk to Putin, he's going to straighten out."

And then it turns out they can't handle a bunch of CNBC moderators.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAMEROTA: So that got a big laugh, Armstrong, but the point is, is Putin doesn't play by rules. World leaders don't play by rules. You can't just ask them for certain conditions and tell them how you want the negotiations to go.

Does all of this make the Republican field look a little soft, a little weak in that they can't just handle the topsy-turvy world of the debates?

CARSON: Alisyn, we're a nation of laws. We have rules. We have guidelines. We're only speaking of the debates. If you're going to have a debate system in place, and you guys know it well at CNN, and the terrific job that Anderson Cooper and those others did with the Democratic debate with Mrs. Clinton, where there's order, it appeared that there were adults in the room. They stayed with the issue. He was able to run it efficiently and effectively. And the American people walked away feeling as if they have known more about Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Sanders and the other candidates.

CAMEROTA: Yes.

CARSON: I don't think it's asking too much, Alisyn, that if you're going to put a process in place, that you abide by the guidelines, you follow the rules, and you have a moderator in place that does not allow the process to get out of control.

CAMEROTA: Yes.

CARSON: People don't want the back and forth banter. They don't want it to be argumentative. They really want to learn about the issues and where these candidates stand.

CAMEROTA: Right. So very quickly, Armstrong, if Dr. Carson doesn't get what he wants, and he has these question requests, will he still show up at the next debate?

WILLIAMS: Life is about compromise, Alisyn. None of us get what we want.

Dr. Carson believes in the process. He believes the American people should hear him and all the other candidates. And whatever happens in the finality in terms of the negotiations, he will respect that process. And he has every intention, wherever, whenever the debate is, he will be on that stage if he's still winning. If he's still in the upper tier. You know, these polls can change on a dime.

CAMEROTA: Yes.

WILLIAMS: And as long as the American people continue to support him and believe that he is their candidate, Dr. Carson will be on that stage.

CAMEROTA: Armstrong Williams, thanks so for being on NEW DAY. Nice to see you.

WILLIAMS: Thank you, Alisyn.

CAMEROTA: Let's get over to Michaela.

PEREIRA: Alisyn, Ben Carson not the only Republican on the rise. Marco Rubio emerging from the ranks of the Republican also rans. He's getting his first endorsement from one of his Senate colleagues. We'll talk to that senator, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PEREIRA: A U.S. satellite detected a heat flash around the same time Russian Metrojet Flight 9268 crashed in the Sinai Saturday morning. This could help investigators figure out if a missile or a bomb brought down that plane, killing all 224 aboard. Russian airline officials are ruling out human error or technical problems as a possible cause, even though several aviation experts say it's far too early to make that determination.