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U.S. Intel Suggests ISIS Took Down Russian Plane; Illinois Officer's Death a 'Carefully Staged Suicide'. Aired 7-7:30a ET

Aired November 05, 2015 - 07:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[07:00:04] DR. BEN CARSON (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I would go after people with rocks.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I was really surprised when I read he tried to stab someone. I'm like, what?

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: When you check his credit cards, take a look at what he's done with the Republican Party when he had access.

SEN. MARCO RUBIO (R-FL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: People need understand what they're talking about here.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ANNOUNCER: This is NEW DAY with Chris Cuomo, Alisyn Camerota and Michaela Pereira.

CAMEROTA: Good morning, everyone. Busy morning here. Welcome back to your NEW DAY.

This morning, intelligence from the U.S., Britain and the Middle East pointing to a bomb, possibly from ISIS, as the likely cause of last week's Metrojet crash in Egypt. This is a stunning shift after initially dismissing the possibility that ISIS or its affiliate had the means to bring down a plane. But online chatter following the crash causing officials to take a second look.

CUOMO: But even as the intelligence points to a potential bomb, the Russians are vehemently denying it. And with notoriously lax support at the airport, Egypt's leaders, too, are pushing back, saying there's just no evidence yet.

CNN with complete coverage, beginning with senior international correspondent Clarissa Ward, outside the prime minister's office in London. And of course, the Egypt leadership there today.

CLARISSA WARD, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, that's right, Chris. And the timing of this really could not be any more awkward. You have the Egyptian president, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who arrived in the U.K. yesterday afternoon on a three-day state visit.

Now, the British Prime Minister, David Cameron, just held an emergency meeting. And we're hearing some highlights from that. Firstly, he said that he has spoken to President el-Sisi last night and that he will be speaking to President el-Sisi again today about what is leading the British to take this decision to indefinitely halt all flights to and from Sharm el-Sheikh.

He also said that he plans to speak to President Putin today, also giving more information about the intelligence behind that decision. And he finally said that he believes, while it cannot be certain that it was a bomb, it is more likely than not that it was a bomb.

Last night, we heard from Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond announcing temporarily all flights to and from Sharm el-Sheikh will be suspended until they get to the bottom of exactly what happened and also try to improve some of the security measures in place in that airport, Chris.

CUOMO: All right. So here's the question. Is it too easy for the U.S. and British to blame ISIS for this, since Egyptians are saying there's no evidence that even the Russians aren't getting it from him?

WARD: Well, Chris, I think at this stage, the U.S. and the U.K. are being a little bit circumspect about saying that ISIS definitely does this.

And it's worth noting this incident does not have all the hallmarks of a typical ISIS attack. We haven't heard on ISIS's official media channels of any really compelling claim of responsibility, which is unusual. And indeed, it's unusual for them -- this would be a first -- trying to take down or, in this case, actually blowing up a civilian airliner.

So I would say also important to remember, Sinai is still very far from the hub of ISIS's leadership and from its operations, and while militants there have pledged fealty to ISIS, it doesn't necessarily mean that they're working and coordinating attacks like these together.

CUOMO: All right, Clarissa. Thank you very much. Appreciate the reporting.

PEREIRA: So U.S. intelligence officials still examining all angles of this disaster. Pentagon correspondent Barbara Starr has more on these emerging details for us.

BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Michaela.

Just to underscore what Clarissa has said, U.S. intelligence officials very cautious about this, saying nothing is definitive. But this is a direction that they are looking at very heavily. And a U.S. official telling CNN, and I want to quote directly, saying, quote, "There is a definite feeling it was an explosive device planted in luggage or somewhere on the plane."

Why are they saying this? Well, they have reason to believe -- they're not telling us what it is -- that this all happened at the Sharm el-Sheikh Airport. We have seen the security actions since that. They are monitoring ISIS, ISIS-affiliate chatter, all the chatter that they can, looking at some claims that they believe may potentially be credible. And they are looking at the rise of civilian activity in recent weeks and months in the Sinai Peninsula.

So what does it all add up to? Not definitive, but certainly indications, and you are now seeing the British government, the Irish government and, indeed, the U.S. taking actions to warn their citizens to stay away from Sharm el-Sheikh and Sinai.

Back to you.

CAMEROTA: OK, Barbara, thanks so much for all of that background. Let's get more analysis now. We want to bring in CNN national security commentator, Mike Rogers. He's the former chair of the House Intelligence Committee. And David Soucie. He's a CNN aviation analyst, former FAA accident investigator and inspector.

Gentlemen, it's great to have both of you with us this morning.

You've heard all the reporting this morning from our correspondents. So the U.S., Mike, and Britain are leaning heavily, it sounds, in the direction that this was a bomb and likely planted by ISIS. Egypt and Russia are not going in that direction. What chatter is the U.S. hearing that Egypt and Russia are not?

[07:05:11] MIKE ROGERS, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY COMMENTATOR: Well, they've had two different motivations, Alisyn, to make those decisions. Clearly, the Russians don't want to give into the fact yet that there may have been a bomb planted on an airplane and that they're going to hold onto that as long as they possibly can, until they get a level of certainty.

And same with Egypt. They don't want people to stop flying into places like Sharm el-Sheikh. So there's two different reasons to come to this conclusion. But I will tell you that the Brits and the Americans, they're not -- the Irish, they're not going to take this decision lightly. So when you combine the non-forensic evidence that David certainly can talk about. But when you look at the flash where it was on the airplane from the satellite image, you see the chatter on the ground.

And they're looking at ISIS today, Alisyn -- I would not rule out other factions, including the Muslim Brotherhood relationships that happened in a place like Sharm el-Sheikh in the Sinai through Syria. But there's other strains here that are going to have to look at it, possible folks who may have gotten the bomb on them.

CAMEROTA: OK. That's a good point. And before I get to David, Mike, just one more thing. How do they know what chatter is legit? I mean, shortly after this, ISIS claimed responsibility. But that's the easiest thing in the world to do. So being in the intelligence community as you are, what -- how do you know when someone claims responsibility, how much stock to put in that?

ROGERS: Well, everybody has a profile. And so you can take the information, how it was delivered, who it was delivered by, and get a sense of the accuracy of that information.

So I think your reporter was talking about the fact that it didn't come through normal channels. That would be -- you would immediately push down the accuracy of that information, saying we're going to have to more in order to believe that.

So what they're doing now is looking at all of the chatter. Is there conversation happening in places that we know that kind of conversation happened before and led to a truism, if you will? And so that's what they're doing. They're putting all of those pieces together and saying probably a little bit of hunch, but a lot of it is evidence in the sense of they can confirm the streams of conversation and the accuracy of where that information is coming from, leads them to say, we've got a problem here.

CAMEROTA: David, I know you're reserving judgment this morning that this was, in fact, a bomb. Why do you have pause?

DAVID SOUCIE, CNN AVIATION ANALYST: Well, as Mike said, you know, there's a level of confidence in information. But my level of confidence comes from science and actual technical forensic evidence. And that's what I'm waiting to see.

If you look at the videos that we've already seen of the arrows, that they're pointing -- investigators are onsite pointing arrows. Those arrows are pointing to the point of fracture on the aircraft. That point of fracture is where the answer is. It's not in the black boxes. It's not in cockpit voice recorder in this instance. It's forensic evidence onsite. That's what they're looking at. And so far, they've said that there's no evidence of a bomb.

The fracture is much different with a bomb than it would be with a structural failure of some kind.

CAMEROTA: That's interesting. So, David if this were a bomb, since that's what some in the intelligence community believe that it is, how far would it be at Sharm el-Sheikh Airport to have gotten a bomb on the plane?

SOUCIE: Well, you know, there's a lot of vulnerabilities in literally every airport throughout the world. Those vulnerabilities are mitigated by various security levels. Those security levels are standardized across the international community, and Sharm el-Sheikh is one of those that meets all of those standards. There's people that do inspections there. There's people that send out, from not only from the international community but the local civil aviation authority in Egypt, very capable of doing these inspections in surveillance. They do that.

So every airport has a certain level. But is it easy to do? No, it's not easy to do. It would require someone on the inside. And that's what's most frightening about this, when we start talking about a bomb, what we're doing is saying we're accepting, then, that they have infiltrated the actual safety system that's designed to prevent them from infiltrating in the first place. So it's very concerning, and I think we need to be very cautious about saying it's a bomb at this point, because I'm not convinced.

CAMEROTA: Yes, I appreciate, David, you putting the brakes on that and saying that, from what you see, it is structural.

Even the officials are confused. Let me play very quickly for you what the British foreign secretary is saying this morning about this incident.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PHILIP HAMMOND, BRITISH FOREIGN SECRETARY: It's a matter of public record that ISIL Sinai have claimed that they have brought the aircraft down. As I said earlier, looking at the totality of the information we have, but we judge that there is a significant possibility that this could have been an explosive device.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAMEROTA: All right. So we're going to leave it there, gentlemen, because, again, as you can see, officials in different countries are still reaching different conclusions. They just don't have enough information yet. But we appreciate both of your expertise. Mike Rogers, David Soucie, thanks so much. We'll check back in with you.

Let's get over to Michaela.

PEREIRA: All right, Alisyn. Some other news for you here. The White House claims Iran's Revolutionary Guard is on a hacking spree, this according to "The Wall Street Journal," and that they're targeting e- mails and social media accounts of administration officials, as well as American journalists and academics.

[07:10:15] The cyber-attacks allegedly tied to the recent arrest of an Iranian American businessman, Siamak Namazi. Namazi's associates say the Iranians seized his computer when they raided his family's home in Tehran last month.

CUOMO: So the text of the new Pacific trade deal was released online by the government of New Zealand. Controversy here and Congress almost sure to fall. There is no question President Obama faces stiff opposition to the 11-nation pack, even from his own party. Why? Well, the suspicion, the trade deal forces American workers to compete with laborers in low-wage nations and detains too many giveaways to powerful business lobbies. Congress is likely to take up the business early next year.

CAMEROTA: Donald Trump releasing new radio campaign ads this morning. Let's listen to one.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Donald Trump learned the values of hard work, determination and faith at an early age. He went on to build one of the world's most iconic brands and companies, which employs thousands of people. Donald Trump is running for president because politicians are all talk and no action. They will never make our country great again.

(END VIDEO CLIP) CAMEROTA: So, that one-minute spot, just like that one, will run in three early voting states: Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. They'll run through the month of November. What's significant is this is the first time the billionaire is spending money on paid advertising since launching his bid.

PEREIRA: The community of Fox Lake, Illinois, in a state of shock this morning after learning that Joe Gliniewicz, the hero cop they called G.I. Joe, wasn't who they thought he was. Authorities say he carefully staged his own suicide, just as investigators were uncovering his alleged criminal activity. Now word that his widow and his son are reportedly under investigation.

We get more from CNN's Rosa Flores.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

COMMANDER GEORGE FILENKO, LAKE COUNTY MAJOR CRIMES TASK FORCE: This extensive investigation has concluded with an overwhelming amount of evidence that Gliniewicz's death was a carefully staged suicide.

ROSA FLORES, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The shocking announcement that Lieutenant Joe Gliniewicz not only killed himself but staged an elaborate crime scene put to rest a two-month investigation. The ruse started with Gliniewicz radioing to dispatch that he was in pursuit of two white males and a black male.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Fled from scene, taking the officer's sidearm.

FLORES: Then radio silence. His lifeless body would be found moments later. That's when hundreds of local state and federal law enforcement officers scoured the area, vowing to find and bring his killer to justice.

(on camera): Investigators say Lieutenant Gliniewicz's plan included planting evidence here at the crime scene to stage a homicide. Commander Filenko saying there was a trail of evidence.

First, pepper spray. Then a few feet away, a baton, then eyeglasses then a shell casing, all leading investigators to believe signs of struggle.

the community had a simple question. Why? It turns out investigators were zeroing in on Gliniewicz for what they now say were criminal acts spanning several years, including laundering thousands from the Fox Lake Police Explorers, a mentorship program for teens, and using it for travel, adult websites, mortgage expenses, among other things.

FILENKO: Gliniewicz committed the ultimate betrayal.

FLORES: The paper trail extensive. So was the cover-up. Investigators say Gliniewicz deleted thousands of messages like this one from back in June, quote, "The 1600 undocumented, it was cash from boot camp, so there is no check trail to follow."

FILENKO: Our investigation strongly indicates criminal activity on the part of at least two other individuals.

FLORES: Investigators won't reveal who those individuals are.

Rosa Flores, CNN, Fox Lake, Illinois.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

PEREIRA: Given all the noise in the nation right now about police and community and -- it just makes this even more egregious that this is, indeed, the case.

CAMEROTA: Yes, I mean, look, this is a terribly troubling case but somehow less troubling than when we thought there were three cop killers...

PEREIRA: On the loose.

CAMEROTA: ... on the loose. And a manhunt that evaporated and a manhunt that couldn't find any leads.

PEREIRA: Linking it back to our top story, though, doesn't it make you remember the idea of waiting to see the course of the investigation play out the same way we need to do in the situation with the Russian jet?

CUOMO: Also, you know, good on the police force for investigating one of their own.

PEREIRA: One of their own.

CUOMO: Even though it would bring some embarrassment not just on to him, but onto the force, as well. But they ferreted it out, and now it seems the truth is there.

CAMEROTA: All right. Well, U.S. and European intelligence suggests that ISIS may have brought down that Russian passenger jet, as we've been talking about.

[07:15:04] That would mean talking that someone -- someone at Sharm el-Sheikh Airport would have helped plant a bomb on board. So we are going to dig deeper into those theories, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CUOMO: All right. So here's your headline. U.S. and British officials say intelligence suggests ISIS may have planted a bomb on that Russian plane. Now, if true, the takedown of the jetliner would be the most significant terror attack since 9/11, if true.

But let's take a look at the means, the motive and the opportunity and maybe put some meat on the bones of why this is so hazy for right now. We have vice president for new initiatives and distinguished scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center, Mr. Aaron David Miller. It's good to have you with us.

AARON DAVID MILLER, WOODROW WILSON INTERNATIONAL CENTER: Great to be here.

CUOMO: Let's look at this: means, motive, opportunity. Simple criminal analysis, I know, but I think it implies here, just in terms of ferreting it out early on. Could ISIS have done this?

MILLER: I mean, I think an ISIS affiliate directed on its own could have, yes. Crude bomb, Sharm el-Sheikh, it's not LaGuardia in terms of profile of security. ISIS is well-regarded or could have pressured, bribed or intimidated, any number of airport employees to do this.

So, yes, capacity and capability to shoot down the aircraft? No. Crude device or perhaps sophisticated device, absolutely.

MILLER: And we'll know if this is an explosive device. That's one of the kinds of signatures that's left in this kind of wreckage that you detect fairly early on if you want to look for it.

[07:20:04] Then you get to motive. Why would they do this? What's being offered is, well, what Russia is doing in Syria. Though our understanding from people like you and others is that they're not really doing in Syria what would upset ISIS. But then they say, well, maybe it's the Chechen connection. What do you say?

MILLER: You know, the Russians are flying 800 -- in October, 800 air sorties. They're hitting primarily opposition targets to Assad. But they are hitting al-Nusra targets, Islamist targets, and ISIS targets. So I don't believe in coincidence. Could this have be -- have been an event directed to show ISIS's reach and demonstrate their aversion to Russian behavior, a lot of people who are being killed in these airstrikes, absolutely.

Does it have the character so far of an ISIS operation? No. They've concentrated on building their caliphate, on governing and have shied away from al Qaeda-like targets, our enemy: the west, the United States.

But that's the problem here. Could they be changing their tactics? You know, they run the Savage Online Theater. They've already dominated the media debate and the media profile for the last several days. Look what they've accomplished, even if they didn't do this.

So I think, frankly, in the 24/7 media cycle, pressure to respond, pressure to come up with explanations, I think we have to be very careful and very cautious. If you ask me, I'm a worse caser, I would think this was not a mechanical failure; it was not pilot error. I think there's a high probability, in effect, this was an explosive device.

CUOMO: But to your point, the braggadocio of ISIS, where is it here? Why didn't they come out with the video showing how they did it yet? Why haven't they come out in a more demonstrative way with the how and the why, but they like to capitalize. Yes, they've gotten some good hype here, even if they didn't do it. Just through a suggestion, but where is it? MILLER: Well, you know, it also raises the question, why would they

do it? I mean, you know, the Russians are eliminating opposition limits to Assad. They haven't yet identified ISIS as the primary target.

Why would ISIS want to pick a fight right now with the Russians? Why would they want to put our president in the position? He's going to be hammered. And he already is on the campaign trail by Republicans who argue, "See, Mr. President, you identified this as a J.V. organization. You're risk averse. And what -- what if this had been an American aircraft, a commercial airliner?"

And I think it points out one -- one problem, one obvious challenge. We're 14 years after 9/11. The single greatest threat to American national security remains the threat to commercial aviation. We haven't yet found a way. And I think it's going to be extremely difficult to hermetically seal the nation abroad or here at home against these kinds of attacks. It's a long war. And you've just seen maybe a very significant turn in escalation.

CUOMO: And of course, look, you value the lives that were lost. But in terms of from a media perception, a government perception, if this had been, God forbid, been a United Airlines flight or whatever with Americans on it, can you imagine what would be being pushed for in this country right now?

MILLER: No. And that's why I think you're going to see debate again for an authorization to use military force piece of legislation. Congress really doesn't want the responsibility for escalating. The "D's" are concerned that we're on a slippery slope. The "R's" don't want to assume responsibility. They want to make this the president's problem. So that's also politicized.

But again, Chris, I think the reality is the generational character of this is the long war. And fighting terrorism is like breathing. Reality is, you can't stop it. Without scaring ourselves to death, we're going to have to be a lot smarter and a lot more effective to counter the transnational threat that we now face.

CUOMO: How long do you think it will take to know?

MILLER: As to whether or not this was -- I think within the next week or so, after the forensics, the aviation experts get done. Maybe they'll find pieces of a detonator. Maybe they'll find residue of explosives.

But I'm not sure that they can sit on this one. I don't think this is going to be like the Malaysian airliner where we're waiting to find the answer for weeks. I think it's going to come pretty quickly. And at some point, one of these groups will conclusively identify themselves as the responsible party if, in fact, it was what it was.

CUOMO: If that's what it was. Aaron David Miller, thank you for helping us understand the situation.

Michaela. PEREIRA: We always appreciate his voice on these matters.

All right. For politics, as Marco Rubio climbs in the polls, his finances are being scrutinized. Who is leading that charge? Donald J. Trump? What will the impact be on Rubio's campaign. Two Florida reporters who followed his political career join us next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[07:28:48] PEREIRA: An ISIS bomb now the primary suspect in the downing of a Metrojet plane from Egypt to Russia last week. Intelligence emerging from Britain and the U.S. and the Middle East strongly suggesting a bomb could have had help inside Sharm el-Sheikh Airport. Russia, however, says any suggestion is just speculative at this point, saying it will take months for any real conclusions. British Prime Minister David Cameron getting set to discuss a matter with Egypt's president this morning.

CAMEROTA: A clarification from Iran's supreme leader. Apparently, when he says "death to America," he does not mean it literally. Ayatollah Khamenei telling a group of Iranian students, the slogan does not mean death to Americans. He said it means death to America's policies and arrogance. Khamenei went on to call the U.S., quote, "the great Satan."

CUOMO: Wait for the clarification on that.

A suspected gang member has been arrested for allegedly attacking American hero Spencer Stone. You remember Stone? He was one of the guys who helped foil the Paris train terror attack this summer, receiving awards from France and the U.S. for his courage. Stone had to get emergency surgery when he was stabbed four times at a local nightclub last month. The alleged attacker now facing attempted murder charges.

PEREIRA: This is quite a story. A boy who went missing in Alabama back in 2002 when he was just 5 years old, he's been reportedly found alive in Cleveland.