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New Day

How Will 2016 Impact Key Races?; Your Financial Health in 2016; The Gun Debate in 2016. Aired 6:30-7a ET

Aired January 01, 2016 - 06:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[06:31:11] MICHAELA PEREIRA, CNN ANCHOR: I'm going to keep saying it -- happy New Year. Welcome back to our special edition of NEW DAY, in a New Year. Kind of exciting.

CHRIS CUOMO, CNN ANCHOR: Hmm.

PEREIRA: We have a lot to get to this half hour including how the 2016 presidential race could effect the balance of power in Congress.

CUOMO: We have the key political races to watch, but we also have a lot of news. So, let's get a check of the headlines at the news desk.

FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: All right, thanks again.

Good morning, and happy New Year. I'm Fredricka Whitfield.

Let's take a look at the top stories -- revelers around the world celebrated the new year overnight. The biggest party in America, Times Square.

A million people squeezing in to watch the ball drop under the watchful eye of more than 6,000 NYPD officers. Security was reinforced after New York, Washington and Los Angeles became targets of a terror threat originating overseas. Terror concerns also driving tight security in Paris, in the wake of the November attacks there, that didn't stop thousands from jamming into the boulevards to celebrate.

And two main rail stations in Munich, Germany, have now reopened. They were evacuated and service shut down because of a reported is terror plot on New Year's Eve. Authorities say the plot involved between five and seven potential suicide attackers. They say intelligence officials from another country tipped off German police about the threat of an attack and the connection to ISIS.

And in this country -- Bill Cosby taking to Twitter to start the New Year, posting a message thanking his friends and fans for their support. Cosby was arraigned earlier this week on felony aggravated assault charges, and this new development, a judge ruling Cosby's wife Camille must testify at an upcoming deposition in a defamation case brought by seven of her husband's accusers. Her lawyers plan to appeal that order.

And now to the historic floods in Missouri, where the death toll now stands at 14. Floodwaters from a number of rivers beginning to recede around St. Louis, but levees are still threatening to fail around the town of Portage Des Sioux. The flood threat persists further down the Mississippi, in places like Memphis, Tennessee, and southern Illinois.

All right. That's a look at your new year's morning headlines.

Alisyn and Chris, back to you.

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: OK. At the stroke of midnight it officially became an election year. Congratulations.

CUOMO: Feels good.

CAMEROTA: All eyes on the presidential race, but there are plenty of key congressional races to watch as well. How will Donald Trump's rise affect the Republican reign in both houses of Congress?

Here to illustrate it all with a magic wall is CNN chief national correspondent John King.

Happy New Year, John.

JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: I'm going to take a vacation. Can I have the year off?

CAMEROTA: No. This is going to be a busy year for you.

KING: OK.

CAMEROTA: Let's start right now. What do you predict the Trump effect will be, not obviously just on the presidential race this year but on all other congressional races?

KING: It will be an easier question to answer in March or April when we know more about the outcome of the presidential primaries. But there's no question heading into the New Year, Republicans are worried, and Democrats are happy, because you already hear Hillary Clinton on the campaign trail, Bernie Sanders on the campaign trail saying, all Republicans are anti-Muslim, all Republicans are anti- African-American, all Republicans are anti-immigrant and anti- Hispanic.

So, they're trying to paint the Republican Party with the Trump brush, if you will, and the Republican establishment is clearly worried about it. They're worried that some races that are probably leaning Republican now, this is a Senate map, we can go through them, they're worried some of the races leaning Republican could go Democratic if Trump stays in the headlines, if Trump is the nominee, they're even more worried.

[06:35:01[ But they do think it's a factor. How big of a factor? You know, ask me in March, April, May. CUOMO: A little bit of what's going on, though, is in-house disorder,

right? The GOP have made big gains since Obama has been the president of the United States. And maybe there's a feeling within the party that they didn't get what they were bargaining for in terms of, you know, this big movement of blue to red across that map that you can show us and yet feel they don't have anything to show for that so they're angry at their own party.

Can we see that?

KING: That is exactly right, Chris, and that's why the Republican base is so upset.

This is a Senate map. We'll back to Senate races in a minute. But let me take you to the House map.

Look at all this red. This is the United States of America, 247 House districts controlled by Republicans.

CUOMO: A lot of red.

KING: That's a big majority. Republican, remember this, because let's go back to right after President Obama was elected. Look at all this blue.

Democrats had the majority, 257. This is after the election in 2008, right? The 2010 mid-terms, huge Republican gains, get majority. 2012, Democrats get a little back. They won eight seats in 2012. Not a big presidential sweep in the second term, only eight seats for Democrats then 2014, wow, boom.

Look at this. A lot of people on the coasts, which are blue, tend to forget this, but America is very red. The Republican base is upset. They have this House majority, then they won the Senate majority in midterms elections last time, they 31 governorships and don't think they're getting conservative leadership.

Now, part because you have a Democrat in the White House but why you have Trump and others talking to the Republican base saying why do we keep winning but not getting what we want? And that's a big part of the dynamic.

CAMEROTA: John, what happens with that calculation if Donald Trump runs as a third-party candidate as he sometimes threatens to do?

CUOMO: What would be his signature animal?

(LAUGHTER)

CUOMO: If you look at the data, Donald Trump is a third-party candidate. The data today as we enter the year and again, if we learned anything in 2015 that we should remember in 2016 is that things change and we live in a volatile environment. But if you look at the data today, Donald Trump is a third-party candidate hurts the Republican Party and you can almost guarantee a Democratic victory. Almost guarantee a Democratic victory. How does that play out? People come out to vote for Trump as an independent they're still voting for House and Senate and choices are D or R. You would assume most are Republicans nap is a potential wild card especially when it comes to turnout operations. Republicans are trying to turn out votes for president in a state, also, vote for Senate but the Trump factor there becomes pretty strange.

CUOMO: What do you got? What's going to be his Petronius curse animal, his party animal?

CAMEROTA: I got it. The Teddy Bear.

CUOMO: The Teddy Bear. What do you say, John King?

KING: Well, he's the human chainsaw. How do you attach an animal to that? He's some kind of a lion.

CUOMO: I'm going with the liger. The liger, the lion-tiger mix.

KING: The lion-tiger, OK.

CUOMO: The lion-tiger, he's a liger.

CAMEROTA: Wow. There's so much in there. We'll explain later, but let you go, John. Thanks so much.

KING: I got to go get an animal book.

CAMEROTA: You really do. Happy New Year.

KING: Happy New Year.

PEREIRA: More like a purist to me. Pick one or the other. Not as wishy washer as a liger might be, Chris.

CUOMO: He's a liger.

PEREIRA: All right. We're looking at politics, we're also at money. It has been a bumpy ride for investors in 2015 -- 401(k)s rising and falling, market doing much of the same. What can we expect in this New Year?

The financial resolutions we should all make, now, coming up.

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[06:41:43] PEREIRA: All right. Happy New Year once again. You're probably swearing to stick to a healthier lifestyle this year. Maybe join a gym, eat more kale.

How about our financial health?

Joining us, our chefs of finance, chief business correspondent Christine Romans, and CNN global economic analyst Rana Foroohar.

First of all, happy New Year. And I think this is such an important thing for us to talk about. We talk about all this resolutions and what we want to do, we often say, well, I want to lower credit card debt and I want to spend less money.

But there's more involved things we can be aware of, and you're going to walk us through some of the resolutions we need to be making.

CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CHIEF BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Absolutely. It's a new year. I always say New Year's and your birthday, the two times you really look at your money. Twice a year. New Year's and your birthday.

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PEREIRA: And I need to buy myself a nice something for my birthday. Talk about mortgage rates. What do predict is going to happen for those thinking of buying a home, thinking of refi-ing, any of that?

ROMANS: You'll hear about how mortgage and interest rates are rising, true, but mortgage rates will rise slowly and well below the historical average for post-World War II. So, if you want to buy a home? It's a nice time to buy a home. Rates are low. Refinance, the biggest money-saving thing you do all year, if you refinance your loan.

RANA FOROOHAR, CNN GLOBAL ECONOMIC ANALYST: Absolutely. Many have already done that.

ROMANS: A couple of times.

FOROOHAR: Hello! You know? $400 saved per month, and that's something we should think about, too. There's going to be more market volatility, saving will be important this year.

PEREIRA: Right. Because of that volatility we saw last year, so many of us, we'll talk about that in a minute, are a little shy, and we're looking at our personal finances in a little different way, which brings me to gas prices.

We've seen some lows. Do you think that's going to extend into this New Year?

ROMANS: Gas prices stay pretty low.

FOROOHAR: They do.

ROMANS: And I think you really need to look at that money not as money falling out of your pocket into something else. Important to take the savings, build your cash reserves. Make sure you have three to six months of money on hand. Liquid money on hand for an emergency, and really take a look at using that little bit extra in your monthly budget to pay down high interest credit card debt, to get out of debt and start saving moving forward.

FOROOHAR: Right, and it's important to get out of debt before interest rates rise, then the cost of debt becomes higher. But I agree. I think gas is going to stay low. I think oil is going to be around $50 a barrel this year, that's because OPEC is continuing to pump a lot. Iranian oil will be coming online as those sanctions go away and still have shale boom here at home.

PEREIRA: All that good news for our personal economy doesn't necessarily great news for the energy sector, right?

ROMANS: It doesn't. And not for investors, you keep hearing volatility in stock markets. There's also this concern about global demand becoming kind of weak. If U.S. raising interest rates, the rest of the world is still having very, very low interest rates, some countries negative interest rates, what does that mean for investors?

So, I think you shouldn't expect big stock market gains. I don't think anybody is forecasting that. In your stock market portfolio, that means it's incredibly important to be dollar cost averaging, buying stocks every month. You know, periodically, make sure you know what your mix is for your risk and how long you have until you retire, and be putting money away into a 529 for your kids, college tuition going up. So, you need to be investing for your children's education, too.

PEREIRA: Right.

FOROOHAR: And, you know, it's important to remember, too, even though the U.S. market is not going up, U.S. blue chip stocks are still a great place to be.

ROMANS: Yes.

[06:45:01] FOROOHAR: Just because we won't get the returns maybe from the past, we're still sort of the pretty house on the ugly block that is the global economy. The rest of the world is not doing as well in many cases as the U.S.

PEREIRA: You know what? Since we have the time to ask you this, looking forward, there's probably a couple people just starting out, right? Just starting out thinking, I'm hearing my parents tell me in my ear, I need to get into the market. I want to start. It can be very, very overwhelming.

What's the best piece of advice to tell somebody, the New Year has come, this is the year to do it. I'm going to dip my baby toe into the stock market?

FOROOHAR: Absolutely do it.

PEREIRA: It's terrifying. You see the volatility.

FOROOHAR: It's terrifying. But, you know, take the long view. You're a young person and be in the market, there's room for changes.

And there is going to be volatility this year, no question. But you don't sell when the market goes down. Remember that. Hang tight. Everybody panics. It's our psychology.

But you got to hang tight, weather the storm, and you will end up better in stocks.

ROMANS: There are two kinds of people in the world. There are the kind who think about how they're spend their money and the kind of people who think how to grow their money, and you want to be the person growing your money. You want to make sure you are living on a little less than you bring home every month and the rest, you're investing and do that in the stock market. You do that with investments.

And I think 52 percent of American households have stocks. They have been over the past six years able to grow their household net worth because wages are not doing it. Not getting higher wages, it was through the stock market. I don't think the stock market will be gang busters this year, but you need to be in it.

PEREIRA: And then for those that can, and given the volatility and some sectors will feel their own, the emergency fund. I think this is something you've taught me a lot about. It's having that little extra cushion. How -- what's the best way to start an emergency fund for yourself?

FOROOHAR: You know, it has to be automatic. You have to take it out of your paycheck. You have to almost not see that money. It's so important, because half of all Americans can't put their hands on even $2,000 if they needed to in an emergency. You have to have the saving.

ROMANS: Yes, a lot of people are just one flat tire away from ruining their household budget and being in debt on high interest credit card debt. So, you need to have a little bit put out away. But you need to get out of the credit card debt. Credit card debt is the worst thing and you got to get out of debt.

For young people with student loans, ten years, you got to pay it off in ten years. A lot of kids are trying to get out of it, from under in five years, because they want to be part of the middle class. They want to be investing. They don't want to be paying down a student loan.

PEREIRA: We give you guys a lot of information, I know, and it's going to seem a little overwhelming. The great thing you're here for us all year long. We can turn to you when we have questions what's going on out there what we should do.

Thank you so much for the New Year's resolutions for our financial health. Happy New Year.

FOROOHAR: Happy New Year.

PEREIRA: Happy New Year to you as well.

Chris?

CUOMO: All right. Speaking of resolutions, President Obama has one. He's making it a top priority for 2016, which of course, his final year in office. We're talking about gun control. Will there really finally be change in Washington?

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[06:51:32] CAMEROTA: The country is still reeling from the terror attack in San Bernardino last month, which reignited the heated debate over gun control.

How do lawmakers plan to tackle that in the New Year?

Here to discuss, a CNN political commentator and "New York Times" columnist, Charles Blow, and CNN political commentator and conservative radio host Ben Ferguson.

Happy new year to both of you, gentlemen.

You're a very interesting pairing on this topic, because let's start with the common ground. You actually come from similar positions in terms of your families use guns. You're from hunting families. You both know how to use guns. You shoot guns.

Yet you're on different sides of the gun control issue.

Charles, I'll start with you. What do you think lawmakers plan to do about gun control in the coming year?

CHARLES BLOW, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: I don't think they're necessarily is a plan and I don't think there's necessarily going to be a lot of progress, right? Because what ends up happening is that this debate runs up against kind of constitutional structure of the country.

The gun ownership and the gun debate overlaps quite significantly with the kind of wide open spaces in this country, and people who want more regulations are generally in the clustered urban spaces. And so, but because of the way the Senate is structured, every state, no matter how wide open, how few people are in that state, still have two senators, right?

So, you have -- you know, Brooklyn has more population than all of Alaska, but New York state is only going to have two senators just like Alaska has two senators. So when you get down to voting on an actual kind of more regulations, the people in Alaska who are more hunting culture are going to say, those senators say, my constituents don't necessarily want this and I'm not going to necessarily support this.

CAMEROTA: And that's part of what's made it such a challenge in Congress to see any sort of action, but then President Obama said after the tragedy in Newtown, that he would do whatever he could. And it sounds like he's eyeing some executive actions on gun control.

BEN FERGUSON, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Yes. I think you'll see an awful lot of executive actions, especially the closer we get to the end of his presidency. This is something he wants to be a part of his legacy. But if they really want to get something done on Capitol Hill,

starting New Year's off on the right foot, there's things Charles and I and others can agree on that is probably taking smaller steps to deal with specific issues. One of those would be mental health. I think there is bipartisan that can be found on dealing with mental health and what we should do when it comes to buying a gun or not being able to purchase one if you are committed against your will by a state or by a judge -- those are the types of things Congress could have success on.

If they try to turn it into a massive gun control law, it will not pass. There aren't the votes there as Charles talked about. But I think if you have leadership, you focus on simple issues to find the common ground, I actually think they could get something done that most Americans would support.

CAMEROTA: Charles, how about that compromised support? Everybody after Newtown and after the Aurora theater said we need something to somehow be dealt with?

BLOW: I do believe that there's a mental health, but I don't think that you can necessarily take on mental health without dealing with the 40 percent of the kind of transfers of weapons that require no background check, whatever.

CAMEROTA: He's saying baby steps.

BLOW: Right. But what I'm saying 40 percent transfers that don't require any checks is going to be really hard to deal with the mental health piece because it's only dealing with the 6 percent that do wire some sort of background check.

[06:55:03] So, you have to combine a couple of these in order to make them actually work.

CAMEROTA: That's an excellent point.

OK. So, Ben, tackle that, because the gun show loophole, as it is called in the vernacular, mean that there are private transfers that don't have to be recorded. So, with mental health, how do you tackle that?

FERGUSON: I think, when it comes to the private checks or the private dealings between one or the other, if you come at this from a sensible solution, which is, hey, if I'm buying a gun from my dad, for example, who's in law enforcement and we've traded guns multiple times since I've been a young adult, that is an example of where, if you have a caveat for that, I think you can find some common ground.

There are many people that say, if I'm trading a gun with my neighbor or with a hunting buddy, where he says, you know what? I really would love to have that 30 aught 6 and tired of my 38 over here. Let's do a trade.

That is where, if you have something like that where there can be a compromise for the reality, that does take place a lot. There are a lot of people in hunting clubs, for example, that have club guns where somebody wants to go use it and they trade with another person.

CAMEROTA: Right, but then the --

FERGUSON: That happens all the time.

CAMEROTA: Why is that paperwork so onerous? Why is it so onerous to ask you to record that transaction?

FERGUSON: Well, it's onerous because you have to go through a licensed armed dealer, pay another fee on top of it depending on the class of firearm it is, it can be extremely expensive and in some cases, you even have to set up a trust and have each person that use that gun on a trust.

So, when you look at the paperwork, I point to the federal government. They haven't made -- they made is so hard to do these things. Stream line the process, again, I think you would have a lot of people that would agree on it.

BLOW: But I think even, you know, more common than -- than even maybe gun shows and more common than, you know, hunting clubs is just intergeneration transfers. You have a grandfather. He's older. He doesn't hunt anymore. Passes it down.

CAMEROTA: Those are fine.

BLOW: We had guns my whole life, me and my brothers, and I don't think -- other than the BB guns and pellet guns, we never bought those guns. There was a grandfather, there was an uncle that passed --

CAMEROTA: Great. So, you're both saying lawmakers don't need to tackle that.

BLOW: No, I am saying that. I'm saying just because the father and grandfather was a responsible gun owner, that has nothing to do with the person they're passing it down to, right?

So, I do believe that transfer needs to be recorded and that there has to be some check on the kind of, the mental stability and kind of criminal background of the person coming into possession of that gun.

Right now, that is not necessarily the case and I think that becomes a loophole that gets kind of fuzzy for people, because we want to say, it's in my family. I should be able to do whatever I want to within my family. It doesn't work that way.

FERGUSON: But it's not --

CAMEROTA: OK, last word, Ben.

FERGUSON: Many people are going to say this -- it's not a loophole, because there is already a law that says that if you are a convicted felon, you are not allowed to own a fire warm, whether it's given to you or not. You cannot own it. You can't purchase it.

CAMEROTA: Sure, but if you're not a convicted felon, maybe have some sort of mental instabilities not recorded, then that becomes an issue.

BLOW: And many of our shooters are not convicted felons.

FERGUSON: Right. And that's where I go back to, if we can just focus first off on the mental health side of this, and build some momentum from it, there are also is a big trust issue here. You have people on both sides that do not trust the other side and think they're always going to go for something a step further.

If they can just focus on one piece at a time, that could be where we could actually be having conversation next year as, wow, we did some good this year and it made sense. Otherwise, we're not going to get anything done at all.

CAMEROTA: There you go. Ben, Charles, thanks so much. Great to get at least a small point of compromise there. Thanks. Happy New Year.

Let's get over to Michaela.

PEREIRA: All right. As we enter this year, how will the race for the White House play out? Will it be Hillary Clinton versus Donald Trump come November? Our political experts give us their best guess.

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