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The 2016 Race; Financial Health in the New Year; Gun Control in 2016. Aired 8:30-9a ET

Aired January 01, 2016 - 08:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[08:30:00] CHRIS CUOMO, CNN ANCHOR: The GOP have made big gains since Obama has been the president of the United States. And maybe there's a feeling within the party that they didn't get what they were bargaining for in terms of, you know, this big movement from blue to red across that map that you can show us and yet they feel they don't have anything to show for that so they're angry at their own party. Can we see that?

JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: That is exactly right, Chris, and that's why the Republican base is so upset. This is a Senate map. We'll come back to Senate races in a minute. But let me take you to the House map. Look at all this red. This is the United States of America, 247 House districts controlled by Republicans.

CUOMO: A lot of red.

KING: That's a big -- that's a big majority. And Republicans remember this, because let's go back to right after President Obama was elected. Look at all this blue. The Democrat had the majority of 257. This is after the election in 2008. All right, the 2010 midterms, huge Republican gains, they get the majority. 2012, Democrats get a little back. They won eight seats in 2012. Not a big presidential sweep in the second term. Only eight seats for the Democrats then. 2014, wow, boom. And look at this, a lot of people on the coasts, which are blue, tend to forget this, but America is very red and that's why the Republican base is upset. They have this House majority, then they won the Senate majority in the midterm elections last time. They have 31 governorships and they don't think they're getting much for it. They don't think they're getting conservative leadership. Now, part of that is because you have a Democrat in the White House but that's why you have Trump and you have other outsiders in the presidential race talking to the Republican base saying, why do we keep winning but not getting what we want? And that's a big part of the dynamic.

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: So, John, let's talk about the Senate. Let's look at your map. So there are four seats I guess that the Democrats could retake. Tell us what the battlegrounds are.

KING: There -- there are more than that, but the ones you look at now -- first, just look at it, 34 Senate races up, a third of the Senate is up every cycle. And you see all the red. That's because Republicans are defending 24 seats they now hold. Democrats only have 10 of their seats to defend. So part of this will depend on the sweep of the presidential election.

But if you look at this now, the state of New Hampshire, Kelly Ayotte's seat, that's a -- you have to call that a tossup right now. She's running for reelection. Democrats tend to win that state in presidential politics. That's a toss-up.

Florida, Marco Rubio's seat. He is not running for re-election. A Republican held seat. You'd have to rate that one as a toss-up.

One Democratic toss-up, although the Latino vote will be key, is Harry Reid's seat. Harry Reid, the Democratic leader, is retiring. So that seat is up.

So those are the three states that you look at and you say, those are toss-ups heading in. The Latino vote, the presidential election will influence Florida and Nevada and the presidential election will no doubt influence New Hampshire. Those ones are your toss-ups right there.

But then you start to look at other races. This is why the Trump effect could come in. Let me clear this. In Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania's gone blue in presidential politics back to 1988, right? A Republican incumbent running in that state. Not a terribly strong Democratic challenger at the moment, but Republicans worry, if you have a big Democratic surge, they could lose that one. Ohio, Rob Portman running against former Governor Ted Strickland. You'd have to say Portman should be the favorite going in because of his incumbency, because of his long-time support in the state, but Ohio can go back and forth in presidential politics.

Ron Johnson in Wisconsin going to run most likely against senator -- former Senator Russ Feingold. Again, a state that tends to go blue in presidential politics. Republicans are worried about losing that one. So if you have a 54 seat majority and I just gave you Florida and New Hampshire as potential losses, now Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin, and there are one or two others we could find, Republicans are simply worried in a big Democratic presidential year, if that's what we get, they could lose that.

CUOMO: Could have a seven or eight seat swing, that's why they want to be guarded about it. There's also no coincidence to why we're been having these debates in Vegas. You know people think it's just because we love the shows. Nevada, of growing importance as a factor in the election.

KING: Right. And, again, Harry Reid is retiring in Nevada. So you come out here and you think Republicans should be able -- let me turn that on. See, it doesn't want to go on for me. Republicans should be able to win that one except, you're dead right, Chris, this used to be --

CUOMO: Dead right.

KING: Nevada and New Mexico used to be swing states in presidential politics. They used to go back and forth. George W. Bush won them once, lost them once when you come to Nevada and New Mexico. Now you have to say they lean Democratic if they're not just blue in presidential politics because of the Republican failure, John McCain and Mitt Romney, to get the Latino vote. Let's watch what happens. Let's watch what happens as we go through this year. But at the moment, especially with the Trump effect, we'll keep talking about that, Republicans are very nervous. They have a very strong candidate for the Senate seat out there, but they are nervous in a presidential year that they just get overwhelmed by a wave.

CAMEROTA: So, John, what happens to all of that calculation if Donald Trump runs as a third party candidate, as he sometimes threatens to do?

CUOMO: And what would be his signature animal?

KING: If you look at the data, Donald Trump as a third party candidate, the data today as we enter the year, and, again, if we learned anything in 2015 that we should remember in 2016 is that things change. We live in a very volatile environment. But if you look at the data today, Donald Trump as a third party candidate hurts the Republican Party and almost guarantees a Democratic victory. Almost guarantees a Democratic victory.

How does that play out? You know, to Trump voters -- I mean if people come out to vote for Trump as an independent, should he do that, they're still going to vote for House and Senate and their choices in almost all of those races are D or R. And so you would assume most of them are Republicans. But that is a -- that is a potential wildcard, especially when it comes to the turnout operations. If Republicans are trying to turn out votes for president in a state, you also say, hey, vote for Senate, but you're not -- you know, the Trump factor there becomes pretty strange.

[08:35:20] CUOMO: So what do you got? What's going to be his spirit animal?

CAMEROTA: Symbolic spirit animal?

CUOMO: What's going to be his patroness (ph) curse animal, his party animal?

CAMEROTA: I got it.

CUOMO: What is it?

CAMEROTA: The teddy bear.

CUOMO: The teddy bear. What do you say, John King? He's a -- well, he's the human chain saw. How do you -- how do you attach an animal to that? He's a lion. He's some kind of a lion.

CUOMO: I'm going with -- I'm going with a liger. The liger, the lion tiger mix -- that they mix.

KING: Lion tiger. Lion tiger, OK. That's good.

CUOMO: The lion tiger. He's a liger.

CAMEROTA: Wow, there's so much in there. We'll explore that later.

CUOMO: Liger.

CAMEROTA: But we'll let you go now, John. Thanks so much.

KING: Yes, I've got -- I've got to go get an animal book.

CAMEROTA: You really do. Happy New Year.

KING: Happy New Year.

MICHAELA PEREIRA, CNN ANCHOR: He seems more like a purist so me. I think he would pick one or the other.

CAMEROTA: Really?

PEREIRA: He's not as wishy washy as a liger might be, Chris.

CUOMO: He's a liger.

PEREIRA: All right, so we are looking at politics. We're also looking at money. It has been a bumpy ride for investors in 2015, 401(k)s rising and falling. The markets doing much of the same. What can we expect in this New Year? The financial resolutions we should all make now, coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PEREIRA: All right, Happy New Year once again. You're probably swearing to stick to a healthier lifestyle this year. Maybe join a gym, eat more kale. How about our financial health? Joining us our chefs of finance, chief business correspondent Christine Romans and CNN global economic analyst Rana Foroohar.

[08:40:00] First of all, happy New Year.

CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CHIEF BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Happy New Year.

PEREIRA: And I think this is such an important thing for us to talk about. We talk about all these resolutions and what we want to do.

ROMANS: Right.

PEREIRA: And we often say, well, I want to lower my credit card debt and I want to spend less money. But there's more involved things that we can be aware of. And you're going to walk us through some of those resolutions we need to be making.

ROMANS: Absolutely. Absolutely.

PEREIRA: OK.

ROMANS: It's a new year. I always say New Year's and your birthday are the two times to really look at your money. Do it twice a year, New Year's and your birthday.

PEREIRA: All right, so first --

RANA FOROOHAR, CNN GLOBAL ECONOMICS ANALYST: I spend (ph) on my birthday.

PEREIRA: I know. I do too.

ROMANS: You should be saving.

PEREIRA: I need to buy myself a nice little something for my birthday.

Let's talk about mortgage rates. What are we predicting is going to happen, especially for those that are maybe thinking of buying a home, thinking of refi-ing, any of that?

ROMANS: You're going to be hearing a lot about how mortgage rates and interest rates are rising this year, and that's very true. But I still think that mortgage rates are going to rise very, very slowly and they're going to be well below the historical average for post-World War II. So if you want to buy a home, it's a nice time to buy a home.

PEREIRA: OK.

ROMANS: Rates are still low. If you want to refinance, that could be the biggest money-saving thing you do all year if you refinance your loan.

FOROOHAR: Absolutely. Many people have already done that. It's still a great --

PEREIRA: Yes.

ROMANS: A couple of times.

FOROOHAR: A couple of -- hello, you know, $400 saved per month.

PEREIRA: Right.

FOROOHAR: And that -- you know, and that's something we should be thinking about too because there's going to be more market volatility. Saving will be important this year.

ROMANS: Yes.

PEREIRA: Right, because that volatility that we saw last year, I think there's so many of us -- and we'll talk about that in a minute -- are a little shy and we're looking at our personal finances in a little different way, which brings me to gas prices. We've seen some lows. Do you think that's going to extend into this new year?

ROMANS: I -- gas prices stay pretty low.

FOROOHAR: They do.

ROMANS: And I think that -- and I think that you can -- really need to look at that money not as money that's just falling out of your pocket to something else. I think it's really important to take those savings, build your cash reserves, make sure you have three to six month of money on hand, liquid money on hard for an emergency, and really take a look at using that little bit extra in your monthly budget --

PEREIRA: Yes.

ROMANS: To pay down high interest credit card debt, to get out of debt and start saving and moving forward.

FOROOHAR: Right. And it's important to get out of debt before interest rates actually do rise.

ROMANS: Yes.

PEREIRA: Good point.

FOROOHAR: Because then the cost of debt becomes so much higher. But I agree, I think gas is going to stay low. I think oil is going to be around $50 a barrel this year. That's because OPEC is continuing to pump a lot. Iranian oil will be coming online as those sanctions go away. And we still have the shale boom here at home.

PEREIRA: But that -- all that good news for our personal economy doesn't necessarily mean great news for the energy sector, right? That's going to --

ROMANS: No, it doesn't.

PEREIRA: That's going to --

ROMANS: And it doesn't mean necessarily good news for investors because there could be a lot of, as you keep hearing us say, volatility in stock markets.

PEREIRA: Yes.

ROMANS: There's also this concern about global demand being kind of weak.

PEREIRA: Yes.

ROMANS: If the U.S. is raising interest rates and the rest of the world is still having very, very low interest rates or in some countries actually negative interest rates, what does that mean for investors? So I don't think you should expect to see big stock market gains next year.

FOROOHAR: No.

ROMANS: I don't think really anybody is forecasting that. So in your stock market portfolio, that means it's incredibly important to be dollar cost averaging, buying stocks every month. You know, periodically making sure that you know -- you know what your -- your mix is for your risk and how long you have until you retire and be putting money away into a 529 for your kids. College tuition is still going up, so you need to be investing for your children's education too.

PEREIRA: Right.

FOROOHAR: And, you know, it's important to remember, too, that even though the U.S. market is not going to go up, U.S. blue chips stocks are still a great place to be.

ROMANS: Yes.

FOROOHAR: You know, just because we're not going to get the returns maybe that we have in the past, we're still sort of the pretty house on the ugly block that is the global economy. The rest of the world is not doing as well in many cases as the U.S.

PEREIRA: You know what, since we have you, we have the time to ask you this looking forward for the -- there's probably a couple of people that are just starting out, right, just starting out and thinking, OK, I know -- I'm hearing my parents tell me in my ear I need to get into the market. I want to start. It can be very, very overwhelming. What's the best piece of advice you can get somebody that -- that the new year has come and they say, this is the year I'm going to do it. I'm going to dip my baby toe into the stock market.

ROMANS: Yes.

FOROOHAR: Absolutely do it, particularly if you're --

PEREIRA: It's terrifying, though, when you see the volatility.

FOROOHAR: It's terrifying. But, you know, if -- take the long view. If you're a young person and you're going to be in the market for --

PEREIRA: There's room for a little -- yes.

FOROOHAR: There -- there's room for -- for changes. And there is going to be volatility this year, no question. But you don't sell when the market

goes down. Remember that.

PEREIRA: We panic, right?

FOROOHAR: Just hang tight. Everybody panics. You know --

PEREIRA: Yes.

FOROOHAR: It's -- it's our psychology. But you've got to hang tight, weather the storm, and you will end up better in stocks.

ROMANS: There are two kinds of people in the world. There are the kind of people who figure out how -- think about how they're going to spend their money and the kind of people who think about how they're going to grow their money. And you want to be the kind of person who is growing your money. You want to make sure that you are living on a little bit less than you bring home every month --

PEREIRA: Less than you bring home. ROMANS: And the rest you're investing and you do that in the stock market. You do that with investments. And I think 52 percent of American households have -- have stocks. They have been, over the past six years, able to grow their household net worth because wages aren't doing it.

FOROOHAR: Right.

ROMANS: They're not getting the higher wages.

PEREIRA: Nope.

ROMANS: It was through the stock market. I don't think the stock market's going to be gangbusters this year --

FOROOHAR: Yes.

ROMANS: But I do think you need to be in -- in it.

PEREIRA: And then for those that can, and given the volatility and given the fact that some sectors are going to feel their own volatility, the emergency fund, I think this is something that you've taught me a lot about.

FOROOHAR: Oh, for sure.

ROMANS: Yes.

PEREIRA: Is -- is having that little extra cushion. How is -- what's the best way to start that, any emergency fund for yourself?

FOROOHAR: You know, you -- it has to be automatic. You have to take it out of your paycheck. You have to almost not see that money. And it's so important because about half of all Americans can't put their hands on even $2,000 if they needed to in an emergency. You've got to have that savings.

[08:45:00] ROMANS: Yes, a lot of people are just one flat tire away from ruining their household budget --

FOROOHAR: Yes.

ROMANS: And being in debt on high interest credit card debt. So you need to have a little bit put away. But you need to get out of the credit card debt.

PEREIRA: Yes.

FOROOHAR: For sure.

ROMANS: Credit card debt is the worst thing. And you have to get out of debt. For young people, young people with student loans. Ten years. You got to pay it off in ten years. A lot of kids are trying to get out of it from under five years because they want to be part of the middle class. They want to be investing. They don't want to be paying down their -- PEREIRA: Look, we gave you guys a lot of information, I know, and it's going to seem overwhelming but the great thing is you're always here for us, all year long. We can turn to you when we have the questions about what's going on out there, what we should do. Thank you so much --

ROMANS: Happy new year.

PEREIRA: -- the new years resolutions for our financial health.

Happy new year to as well. Chris?

CUOMO: All right, Mick. Speaking of resolutions, President Obama has one. He's making it a top priority for 2016, which of course is his final year in office. We're talking about gun control. Will there really finally be change in Washington?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CAMEROTA: The country is still reeling from the terror attack in San Bernardino last month, which reignited the heated debate over gun control. How do lawmakers plan to tackle that issue in the new year?

Here to discuss is CNN political commentator and "New York Times" columnist Charles Blow, and CNN political commentator and conservative radio host Ben Ferguson.

Happy new year to both of you gentlemen. You are a very interesting pairing on this topic. Because let's start with the common ground. You actually come from similar positions in terms of your families used guns. You're from hunting families. You both know how to use guns. You shoot guns. Yet you are on different sides of the gun control issue.

Charles, I'll start with you, what do you think lawmakers plan to do about gun control in the coming year?

CHARLES BLOW, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: I don't think there is necessarily a plan and I don't think there is necessarily going to be a lot of progress, right. Because what ends up happening is that the debate runs up against the constitutional structure of the country.

[08:50:05] It -- the gun ownership and the gun debate overlaps quite significantly with the kind of wide open spaces in this country and people who want more regulation are generally in the clustered urban spaces. But because of the way the Senate is structured, every state, no matter how wide open, how few people are in that state, still have two senators. Right, so you have -- Brooklyn has more population than all of Alaska. But New York State is only going to have two senators, just like Alaska has two senators. And so when you get down to voting on an actual kind of more regulations, the people in Alaska who are more hunting culture are going to say -- those Senators are going to say my constituents don't necessarily want this so I'm not going to necessarily support this.

CAMEROTA: And that's part of what's made it such a challenge in Congress to see any sort of action. But Ben, President Obama said after the tragedy in Newtown that he would do whatever he could, and it sounds like he's eyeing executive actions on gun control.

BEN FERGUSON, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Yes, I think you will see an awful lot of executive actions, especially the closer we get to the end of his presidency, and this is something that he wants to be a part of his legacy.

But if they really want to get something done on Capitol Hill, starting new year's off on the right foot, I think there are things Charles and I and others can agree on. And that is probably taking smaller steps to deal with specific issues. One of those would be mental health. I think there is bipartisan support that can be found on dealing with mental health and what we should do with mental health when it comes to buying a gun or not being able to purchase one if you are committed against your will by the state or by a judge.

Those are types of things I think that Congress could actually have success on. If they try to turn it into a massive gun control law, it will not pass. There aren't the votes there, as Charles just talked about. But I think that if you have some leadership here, you focus on simple issues where you can find that common ground, I actually think they could probably get something done that most Americans would actually support.

CAMEROTA: Charles, how about that point of compromise? Everybody after Newtown and after the Aurora movie theater, said we need the mental health gun nexus to somehow be dealt with somehow.

BLOW: I do believe there is a mental health component, but I don't think that you can necessarily take on mental health without dealing with the 40 percent of transfers of weapons that require no background checks whatsoever.

CAMEROTA: Sure, but he's saying baby steps.

BLOW: Right. But I'm saying, you know, 40 percent transfers that don't require any checks, that's going to be really hard to deal with the mental health piece because it's only dealing with the 6 percent that do require some sort of background check. So you have to kind of combine a couple of these in order to make them actually work.

CAMEROTA: That's an excellent point. OK so, Ben, tackle that. Because the gun show loophole, as it is called in the vernacular, means that there are private transfers that don't have to be recorded. There's no background checks. So with mental health, how are you going to tackle that?

FERGUSON: Well, I think that when it comes to the private checks, or the private dealings between one or the other, if you come at this from a sensible solution, which is hey, if I'm buying a gun from my dad, for example, who's in law enforcement and we've traded guns multiple times since I've been a young adult, that is an example of where, if you have a caveat for that, I think you can find some common ground. There are many people that say if I'm trading a gun with my neighbor

or with a hunting buddy where he says, you know what, I really would love that (INAUDIBLE) six and I'm kind of tired of .38 over here, let's do a trade. That is where, if you have something like that, where there can be a compromise for the reality, that does take place a lot. There are a lot of people in hunting clubs, for example, that have club guns where if somebody wants to go use and they trade with another person, that happens all the time.

CAMEROTA: Right, Ben -- the question is so why is that paperwork so onerous? Why is it so onerous to ask you just to record that transaction?

FERGUSON: Well, it's onerous because you have to go through a licensed arm dealer. You then have to pay another fee on top of it. Depending on what class of firearm it is, it can be extremely expensive. And in some cases, you even have to even set up a trust and have each person that used that gun on a trust. So when you look at the paperwork, I would point to the federal government. They have made it so hard to do these things. If they would streamline the process, again, I think you would have a lot of people that would agree on it.

BLOW: But I think even, you know, more common than even maybe gun shows and more common than hunting clubs is just intergenerational transfers. You have a grandfather, he's older. He doesn't hunt anymore.

CAMEROTA: Right, and Ben's saying so those are fine.

BLOW: We had guns my whole life, me and my brothers. And I don't think I -- other than the BB guns and the pellet guns, we never bought those real guns. There was a grandfather, there was a uncle.

CAMEROTA: So you're both saying lawmakers don't need to tackle that part --

BLOW: No, but I am saying. What I am saying is just because the father or the grandfather was a responsible gun owner, that has nothing to do with the person they're passing it down to, right?

[08:55:00] So I do believe that that transfer needs to be recorded and that there has to be some check on the mental stability and kind of criminal background of the person who is coming into possession of that gun.

Right now, that is not necessarily the case, and I think that that becomes a loophole that gets kind of fuzzy for people. Because we want to say it's in my family, I should be able to do whatever I want to it within my family. But it doesn't work that way.

FERGUSON: But it's not --

CAMEROTA: OK, last word, Ben.

FERGUSON: Many people are going to say this: it's not a loophole because there's already a law that says that if you are a convicted felon, you are not allowed to own a firearm whether it's given to you or not. You cannot own it. You can't purchase it. You can't own it.

CAMEROTA: Sure, but if you're not a convicted felon, if you just have maybe some mental instability that hasn't been reported, then that becomes an issue.

BLOW: And many of our shooters are not convicted felons.

FERGUSON: And we should -- and, right, and that's where I go back to if we can just focus first off on the mental health side of this and build some momentum from it, there also is a big trust issue here. You have people on both sides that do not trust the other side and they think they are always going to go for something a step further. If they can just focus on one piece at a time, that could be where we could actually be having conversation next new year's about, wow, we did some good this year and it made sense. Otherwise we're not going to get anything done at all.

CAMEROTA: There you go. Ben, Charles, thanks so much. Great to get at least a small point of compromise there.

Thanks. Happy new year.

CUOMO: All right, happy new year!

PEREIRA: Happy new year!

CAMEROTA: Happy new year!

CUOMO: Thanks for spending the morning with us. Have a great 2016. "NEWSROOM" picks up right after the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)