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Donald Trump to Skip GOP Debate Tomorrow; Matt Lewis on His New Book "Too Dumb To Fail"; Voters Explain the Trump Phenomenon; Actor Abe Vigoda Dies at 94. Aired 6:30-7a ET

Aired January 27, 2016 - 06:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

NICK PATON WALSH, SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: ... now about how fast negotiations to militants in that area after the first kidnapping. She is now off to three weeks of a whereabouts not being known, clearly in the hands of AQIM Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb as they're known and big concerns now about how fast negotiations can secure her safety.

[06:30:15] Back to you.

CHRIS CUOMO, CNN ANCHOR: All right Nick, thank you very much. Please keep us apprised of anything you learn about that.

Republican front-runner Donald Trump bucking convention, skipping tomorrow's GOP debate. He's way ahead of the pack. But can Trump risk it, or is this helping him? Analysis ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CUOMO: Just when you thought he could not shock you anymore, he does. Donald Trump dropping out of tomorrow's GOP debate with Fox News.

Clearly a reason Trump feels uncomfortable skipping the debate, he is dominating nearly every state and national poll. So does this help? Does it hurt? What does it mean overall for the GOP?

We the man who could answer all of these in unique way, senior contributor for The Daily Caller, Matt Lewis, author of a very good new book, "Too Dumb To Fail: How the GOP Betrayed the Reagan Revolution to Win Elections (and How It Can Reclaim Its Conservative Roots)."

[06:35:10] You see Trump, you see more than a headline. You see more than a spectacle about what's going on right now. You see almost like in the matrix. You see a whole party dynamic at play. How so?

MATT LEWIS, AUTHOR "TOO DUMB TO FAIL": Yeah, absolutely, look Donald Trump is the big story today, no doubt about it. And he seems to be playing this amazing chess game. But if you look under the hood, there is a lot of dynamics at play that have been building up in the conservative movement and the Republican Party for a long time.

For one thing, it's the rise of this populus strain, which isn't exactly Conservative. But, you know, if you go the title of the book it's called "Too Dumb To Fail."

CUOMO: Which means?

LEWIS: Well, you've got a couple of things happening. One is this weird phenomenon where if you say or do something crazy or stupid, you actually go up in the polls.

CUOMO: Because?

LEWIS: Because you're too dumb to fail. And actually, you know, harkens back to the Andrew Ross Sorkin book about Too Big to Fail. And there's interesting similarities, OK. So in the Too Big to Fail problem with the economic crisis, you had financial institutions who had perverse incentives to take risk and there were these moral hazards.

We have the same thing happening in the Republican Party right now in the primary. You have pundits and politicians who had perverse incentives to say or do things that help them individually. But collectively harm the Republican Party and the conservative movement.

So to extend the metaphor, the backstop on the banks was, well, we all need them. So no matter how much they screw up, we have to kind of support them. Is there an equivalent within the GOP?

No, because eventually what happens is Too Dumb to Fail won't work. It worked within the Republican primary so far. But and for a long time, the Too Dumb to Fail mentality has worked. We've had a lot of Republicans get elected by dumbing things down and pandering and playing to the base. But the demographic changes that are coming to America right now are such that if the Republican Party goes the direction of Donald Trump, which is basically doubling down on a populist working class, white native this vote, that will sow the seeds for a long-term demographic disaster.

I believe that conservatism can survive and win in the free market of ideas. In the 21st century, I believe conservatives can attract Hispanics, young people, college educated folks, urbanites. But that's not going to happen if they go the wrong direction.

CUOMO: And they can win those groups, it can win those groups without making those people somehow sully. You know, the ...

LEWIS: Yeah.

CUOMO: What's the criticism? The criticism is, if you make those -- sure, you can make those people conservative. But you would be ruining what they represent in the mosaic. You say, no, that's part of the jaundice of how people view conservatism.

LEWIS: Yeah, look, if -- let's think of a guy, urban guy living here in New York City or something, right. If his vision of what a Republican or a Conservative is, is boss hog, that do a cultural thing, the guy with the rebel flag in his truck. He is not going to think of himself as Conservative or Republican. At the same time, that same young, you know, urbanite is getting on his iPhone, you know, ordering or smart phone ordering up an Uber and going, getting on StubHub going to a baseball game, this is a guy who's engaged in some very conservative activities here. He's entrepreneurial. He doesn't want own risk government regulation. He doesn't want the government to control his, you know, his retirement. He is managing it on his smart phone. That guy should be a Conservative and he will be unless Conservatives allow the cultural baggage to weigh them down.

CUOMO: Trump says he's a Conservative.

LEWIS: He says he is a Conservative. But we're having this big argument now over what does it mean to be a Conservative. I mean, and he's trying to -- I believe redefine it. I hope that he would read my book "Too Dumb to Fail."

I go back and I see that conservatism really is a philosophy that goes back to Aristotle, Edmund Burke the father of modern day conservatism and William F. Buckley. And I would mention to say that Donald Trump's brand of sort of populous far right populism flies in the face of real Conservative philosophy.

CUOMO: What's the difference between populism and conservatism for the purpose of your analysis?

LEWIS: Well let's just look at three issue right now that may mainstream Conservative like myself. And I am a -- this is different than a lot of the books that like, I'm not advising the Conservatives to become more liberal. I'm a real conservative.

Let's look at something like entitlement reform. The entitlement refore is a more major diver of debt. And we have to basically fix it to preserve, you know, these entities that we need.

Donald Trump says, "Don't worry about social security. Keep the government out of your social security." Free trade is another example. Free trade going back to Adam Smith, David Ricardo, free trade makes us prosperous and rich.

Donald Trump says, "No, let's put up walls and protection as policy."

CUOMO: ... you're going to give away the book. Don't give away the book. And that's the problem with this.

(CROSSTALK)

CUOMO: ... you mean too much of a journalist right now. Don't give me everything.

Matt, as you know ...

LEWIS: Thank you.

CUOMO: Love having you as part of the family. Here the book is "Too Dumb To Fail" is worth a read specially right now. Alisyn. [06:40:04] ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: OK, Chris. So as we've all seen in the polls, Donald Trump is resonating with millions of voters across the country.

To help understand the Trump phenomenon, CNN's political team spoke with more than a 150 Trump supporters in 31 cities. So let's listen a couple of them.

First of is Patricia Sanders, she was responding to Trump's call for bringing Muslims on a list, listen to her.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PATRICIA SANDERS, TRUMP SUPPORTER: Put them a list. If you're a law- abiding Muslim you're quite here, if you have nothing to hide but if someone's had 999 of them to be good people, it only takes one to care off, to blow this whole place up.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAMEROTA: OK, so you get her take on that which was considered controversial. Well, Trump is also attracting young people. Here is 18-year-old Turner Eakin from Nebraska. Listen to him.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TURNER EAKIN, TRUMP SUPPORTER: 18-year-olds, we really value action and who is going to come through. And to us that's Trump. I mean he walked out to we're not going to take it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAMEROTA: That's just a little sample of what all these voters told us.

CNN politics reporter, M.J. Lee joins us now to talk about why Trump is resonating with so many of the voters that she spoke to. M.J., tell us what you've learned.

M.J. LEE, CNN POLITICS REPORTER: Good morning, Alisyn. Well as you know, there are a number of reporters at CNN, myself included, who spent the last couple of months traveling the country with Donald Trump going to his campaign events, going to his rallies. And the perspective that we want to bring is what most viewers can't just get by watching his speeches on television, seeing him speak.

We have been able to at his rallies speak to voters who are turning up to his rallies and really getting to the root of why are you here. Why are you supporting Donald Trump? What is it that you're angry about? What is it that you're passionate about? What is driving you to come out to his rallies?

And we're hoping that this story that was on CNN politics, that by reading this and by, you know, hearing some on of these voices of the voters, they will really get a sense of the Trump phenomena and what is driving it. CAMEROTA: And was there anything that surprised you particularly?

LEE: Well, look, I think like all of us the endurance and the loyalty of trump supporters has been surprising. And it surprised us over and over again. I think when Trump first announced his campaign for president in the summer, a lot of us thought, look, this is an unlikely candidate. This is going to be short-lived. And here we are in the middle of January we're just days away from the Iowa caucuses. The end of January, I should say.

And he is thriving. And something that we have been struck by is that he is in part thriving and has accomplished something really amazing by tapping into the deep fears and anxieties that have really gripped people especially post San Bernardino, especially post Paris.

And trump has really managed to exclude (ph) this uncomplicated strength and have presented himself as a candidate who can really bring the country back. And people's attraction to that has been really striking. And this is why over and over again he makes controversial statement like things that are inflammatory. And his voters, its supports really don't care.

CAMEROTA: All right, M.J., it's a fascinating look inside all of the rallies and his support. Thanks so much for bringing that to us and you can be sure to check out M.J.'s comprehensive piece on why voters are supporting Trump, if you want too. You go to our homepage cnn.com. It's a fascinating report. Let's go over to Chris.

CUOMO: Indeed. Well, so far he's pretty much been the Teflon Don-ald. But is boycotting a debate just days before the Iowa caucuses too risky even for Trump or is it too genius?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[06:47:44] CUOMO: All right, breaking news a 6-alarm fire in New Orleans just outside the city's French Quarter on Canal Street. Firefighters battling intense flames you can see it right there, heavy smoke covering a wide, wide area.

An investigation under way right now, the fire is not considered suspicious.

An off-duty sheriff's deputy in Aurora Colorado fighting for his life in critical condition after a shootout with two robbery suspects, the deputy shot in the chest and abdomen. But able to fire back, hitting a juvenile suspect in the leg. That suspect now in custody. The second suspect on the loose.

CAMEROTA: Breaking overnight Police in Seattle looking for two men who open fire, killing two people at a homeless camp. A man and woman were killed and three others injured in what police call a targeted attack.

Official say they do not believe the public is in danger this morning. The attack comes as city leaders sound the alarm on a growing homeless problem. CUOMO: Veteran actor Abe Vigoda has died. He spent years on stage and television without much recognition until he landed the role of Mafia, you know, kingpin Sal Tessio in "The Godfather." His character you can see it doomed in the in this iconic scene for betraying the Corleone family.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ABE VIGODA, VETERAN ACTOR: Tell Mike, it was only business. I always liked him.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He understands that.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Excuse me, Sal ...

VIGODA: Huh?

Tom, can you get me off the hook? For old time sake?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Can't do it, Sally.

VIGODA: For old time's sake. Tell mike it was only business.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CUOMO: Later, came his break out comedy role of detective Phil Fish in "Barney Miller." Abe Vigoda he was 90.

CAMEROTA: Long life.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: And of course there was the whole thing where there reports 30 years ago that he had died. And he made fun of that for a long time, for decades.

CUOMO: I always thought that was such a genius moment with him and the Godfather when he says, "Can you get us out here." And he's kind of smiling for old time's sake. And Martin says to him, you know, "Can't do it, Sally." You know, like even in pals when he's basically saying, "No, I got to kill you."

Apropos of what we are seeing in the elections today, welcome to 2016.

CAMEROTA: Donald Trump pulling out of the Fox News GOP debate. Is that a winning move?

[06:50:02] CUOMO: Tell roger it was only business.

CAMEROTA: For old time's sake.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I can't meet her to do the debate. When they sent out the wise guy press releases a little while ago done by some P.R. person along with Roger Ailes, I said "Bye-bye." (END VIDEO CLIP)

CAMEROTA: Just five days out from Iowa, Donald Trump said he is not showing up to tomorrow's GOP debate on Fox News because of their moderator.

And now he is starting to tweet about it this morning. He says "I refuse to call Megyn Kelly a bimbo because that would not be politically correct. Instead I will only call her a lightweight reporter."

Joining us now, CNN Senior Media Correspondent, Brian Stelter and CNN Contributor, Bill Carter.

Bill, that's disgusting. And it disgusts me when he doesn't like somebody's question, he goes for the ad hominem of attack, he goes for a sexist attack. You don't call a man a bimbo. And that is what she was asking him, the question that started all of this, was Megyn Kelly asked how he treated women and how he calls them names.

BILL CARTER, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: It does play right back to the question. But now, it's an escalating thing because hey sort of came after him with that commentary yesterday. It was really sort of snide and he came back ...

CAMEROTA: ... you mean like a statement that they put out?

CARTER: Yes.

CAMEROTA: All right, let me just read that because that's what you say escalated this. The Fox News, when he was saying I might not show up, I might not show up. Don't push me. And they have to dump Megyn Kelly in order for me to show up.

[06:55:02] BRIAN STELTER, CNN SENIOR MEDIA CORRESPONDENT: Even at the Twitter polls say, should I go to the debate, and that when Fox is making fun of it.

CAMEROTA: OK, he was polling his Twitter followers. Here's what they put out. "We learned from a secret back channel that the Ayatollah and Putin both intend to treat Donald Trump unfairly when they meet him if he becomes president. A nefarious source tells us that Trump has his own secret plan to replace the Cabinet with his Twitter followers to see if he should even go to the meetings."

STELTER: Yeah, I thought it was pretty funny. But ...

(CROSSTALK)

CARTER: It's a schooly hard thing. It's like I'm going to throw and you. It is mocking him. It's basically saying, you know, you're not the front-runner. You're a joke which I think you always get a reaction from him when you say he's not serious with his campaign. He comes after you, big time.

CAMEROTA: That statement was vintage Roger Ailes. And Brian it has been astonishing to watch this fight between Donald Trump and Roger Ailes. I -- Roger Ailes was boss for many years. Roger Ailes is used to making the rules. Roger Ailes is used to getting his way. What are the Fox executives -- I know that you reach out to them. What are they saying about what's going on inside the halls there about how they're dealing with Trump?

STELTER: Yeah, Ailes is one of those powerful in both media and politics of course, having build Fox New from nothing 20 years ago.

They seem, my impression here, caught off guard by what's happened, by how to handle Trump and by how Trump has responded to them each time. This is an ultimate sort of power situation between these two titans of media and industry. And I think it might be a situation where Ailes is finally met his match.

CAMEROTA: Bill this is bigger than Fox News and Donald Trump's spat. This is about journalism. Donald Trump doesn't like to be asked questions, questions he perceives as negative. That's what journalism does. You ask tough questions.

CARTER: Candidates ever right to blow back against that.

CAMEROTA: Sure.

CARTER: Not really every right to say you can't then be on the show, I mean that's the difference I think.

STELTER: It has a chilling effect, you know, it's been a couple of debates already where cosponsors have been uninvited from the debate because they've been critical of Trump. Most recently National Review, the anti-Trump issued last week came out within a few hours the RNC said, "OK, you're not going to be part of a debate that's happening next month."

CARTER: But there's a risk here ...

STELTER: So there is an issue here with if you criticize Trump, if you challenge Trump too much then you're not involved in a debate. That does have a chilling effect.

CAMEROTA: Absolutely.

CARTER: ... to this confrontations. And Fox has to worry because most of his audience, his base, is their audience. They can't just say well ...

STELTER: Yeah, this has been bad for Megyn Kelly.

(CROSSTALK)

CAMEROTA: How do you know it has been bad for her?

STELTER: Well, you know, that's my impression anecdotally. When I look at the commentary online, when I look at the nastiness with someone like Trump is saying about her. Now listen her rating, I would say she's a very, this is a very strong program. But there is a little sign of weakness there at 9:00 p.m. in recent weeks. Trump supporters say that's because we're not watching. We're boycotting the show. Whether that's true or not, this is unpleasant for television news anchor to be in the middle of this.

So what does every moderator say before the debate, I just don't want to be the story. That's what our colleague Chris Cuomo said early this week. I don't want to be the story.

Well Megyn Kelly continues to be the story because Donald Trump is making her the story.

CAMEROTA: Donald Trump's campaign manager Corey Lewandowski just called into another morning show about how he feels about Fox and what he predicts will happen tomorrow night with Fox. Listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

COREY LEWANDOWSKI, CAMPAIGN MANAGER FOR DONALD TRUMP: Mr. Trump, because you have a clear leader, a person who he say the best is not going to be toyed with, a person who understands when the bad deals in front of him and he's great to walk away from a bad deal.

I just don't seem where Fox is going to have a successful now when you got a clear GOP front-runner who's decided to walk away from this debate because it can't be treated fairly on the debate stage.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAMEROTA: Bill, will this affect Fox News' ratings?

CARTER: I think it will. I don't know what he's going to do counter him.

STELTER: Right.

CARTER: Somebody's going to cover what he's doing.

(CROSSTALK)

CAMEROTA: I think he said that he is going to have a wounded warrior ...

STELTER: Right, and they said they've already started to raise money for this ...

CARTER: Right.

STELTER: ... they working on that. It will be broadcast by other networks. I think Corey has going too far there. He keep saying this debate will only have 1 or 2 million viewers without Trump. That's not true.

They soon overstated because they don't want to look like, Trump is less than more than a year. This debate will still be watched I think by 10 million people.

CARTER: ... I think it will be.

STELTER: It will be. That's going to be the elephant in the room or the ghost in the room. It's almost like everyone when you're looking around trying to punch at this ghost who is not there.

CARTER: I don't want to see what he is saying on the other channel. I think it's ...

STELTER: The debate is automatically an under card debate.

CARTER: Yeah.

STELTER: You know, this suppose to be the prime time debate ...

CAMEROTA: Without the front-runner ...

(CROSSTALK)

CAMEROTA: All right. Brian, Bill, thank you gentlemen very much. We're following a lot of news this morning, so let's get right to it.

And good morning everyone, welcome to your NEW DAY and Michaela is off. John Berman joins us this morning with the Iowa caucuses just five days away.

Donald Trump going where no party front-runner has going before, he is skipping the final Republican debate. Before voting begins. Trump going to war with Fox News. Now the network is hitting back. More on that in a moment.

But first we do begin with breaking news.

CUOMO: Overnight, armed protesters occupying a federal wildlife refuge in Oregon facing off with the FBI and state police.

The group spokesman was killed several of the demonstrators are in police custody, including the groups leader Ammon Bundy.

[07:00:05] We have CNN Justice Reporter Evan Perez joining us live with breaking developments. What do we know?

EVAN PEREZ, CNN JUSTICE REPORTER: Well, Chris authorities say one man was killed and another was injured in the dramatic shootout between the members of an Oregon protesters ...