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First Presidential Votes Cast Today; Trump, Cruz Battle for First in Iowa; Democratic Race Too Close to Call in Iowa. Aired 7- 7:30a ET

Aired February 01, 2016 - 07:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

CHRIS CUOMO, CNN: -- extra strength in Iowa. We have much more coverage of the caucuses here. We have a full team. So let's get right to it.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Let's start a storm of movement toward the future.

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (D-VT), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I think we've got a real shot of winning this.

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You're going to have a winner this time.

JEB BUSH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I believe I'm going to win the nomination.

SEN. MARCO RUBIO (R-FL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Hillary Clinton is disqualified from being president. This thing with her e-mails is a big deal.

CLINTON: The Republicans are going to continue to beat up on me.

SEN. TED CRUZ (R-TX), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The American people deserve more.

SANDERS: The Donald Trumps and others who want to divide us up.

TRUMP: These politicians are the worst liars. They'll say anything.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ANNOUNCER: This is NEW DAY with Chris Cuomo, Alisyn Camerota and Michaela Pereira.

CAMEROTA: Welcome to our viewers in the United States and around the world. This is NEW DAY. It's Monday, February 1. Michaela is there in New York. Chris and I are at the Mars Cafe in Des Moines, Iowa.

At long last, it is caucus day in Iowa. Votes finally set to be cast after one of the most bizarre lead-ups to an election we've ever seen. Candidates making a final push across Iowa before the caucuses begin, 13 hours from now. Or 12 hours, I guess, from now. CUOMO: Ninety-nine counties, 600-plus precincts. Lots to cover. The races are tight on both sides of the aisle. On the GOP side, you've got Trump and Cruz, very close from one another, both depending on turnout tonight.

You've got Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders on the Democrat side, statistically tied. An eerie situation for Clinton, compared to 2008. Once again, she's going with experience versus emotion. We're going to speak to the Democratic frontrunner, Hillary Clinton, later this hour.

But we have full team coverage. Let's begin with Sunlen Serfaty. She has a look at the GOP field. Sunlen, what is the state of play?

SUNLEN SERFATY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Chris, between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz a race for first with the polls showing them so close. But also important is the battle for the third position. Marco Rubio, if he's able to make a strong showing and close the gap between them, that could do a lot to alter the dynamics of this race going forward.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

TRUMP: You haven't had a winner in Iowa in 16 years. We're going to have a winner; you better believe it.

SERFATY (voice-over): Republicans in Iowa are waking up to the final pitches from 12 GOP hopefuls.

CRUZ: I want to ask everyone here to vote for me 10 times.

SERFATY: The presidential candidates in red spreading across the Hawk Eye State, arming themselves with pointed criticism and humor.

CRUZ: Next cycle, I think Lady Gaga is running.

SERFATY: Donald Trump is only five points head of Senator Ted Cruz in the most recent "Des Moines Register" poll. And the front-runner is feeling the heat.

TRUMP: He wants to pretend he's Robin Hood. He's going to protect everybody from Wall Street.

SERFATY: Continuing to suggest Cruz has an in with big banks.

TRUMP: He forgot to mention that he's borrowed a lot of money at almost no interest from Goldman Sachs and from Citibank.

SERFATY: And may not even be eligible for the presidency.

TRUMP: If you become the candidate, it's possible he can't even run, according to a lot of people.

SERFATY: Cruz rolling out conservative celebrities to strike back.

PHIL ROBERTSON, STAR OF REALITY TV SHOW "DUCK DYNASTY": All you ladies, that would be a duck call. SERFATY: From "Duck Dynasty" star Phil Robertson.

ROBERTSON: Let's try one more time to get Trump. Let's call Donald Duck to come meet with Cruz and debate.

SERFATY: To radio host Glenn Beck, begging Iowans not to vote for Trump.

GLENN BECK, RADIO TALK SHOW HOST: For my children's sake, please, dear God, if you're thinking about it, go to the bar tomorrow instead.

SERFATY: With so many other candidates polling in the single digits, there's still a large percentage of Iowa voters who, if swayed, could turn the tide for one of the front-runners.

RUBIO: We cannot win if we are divided.

SERFATY: Still, no candidate is giving up hope.

BUSH: I believe I'm going to win the nomination.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CUOMO: All right. We're hearing the same type of talk from the Democrat side. Except there it is really a two-person race: Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders. No matter what poll you look at it, it is statistically a tie right now in Iowa.

So let's get in with CNN senior Washington correspondent, Jeff Zeleny, on the Democrat race -- Jeff.

JEFF ZELENY, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Chris, good morning. It is statistically a tie. But the campaigns know exactly who their supporters are. Every one of them is getting a phone call today, a text message, an e-mail, urging them to come out to the caucuses tonight at 7 p.m., where voters finally will decide if the establishment will get its say or if it will be Bernie Sanders's plea to shake things up here in Iowa.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CLINTON: And I think we can have...

ZELENY (voice-over): A furious fight to the finish.

CLINTON: I will fight for you in the White House.

SANDERS: It sounds you want to make a political revolution.

ZELENY: Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders circling Iowa one last time. The closing stretch is all about campaign mechanics.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We are just calling to make sure we have your support.

CLINTON: Let's start a storm of movement toward the future that we want to make together.

ZELENY: It's the Super Bowl of politics. But the season isn't over. It's just beginning. The test of campaign organization will set the tone for the rest of the 2016 race.

Sanders announced a Sunday bombshell. He raised $20 million in January, an average donation of $27. Big crowds throwing their support behind their candidate.

SANDERS: Never in a million years would I have thought this possible.

ZELENY: Soaring crowds for Clinton, too. Even as the State Department e-mail investigation hangs over the campaign.

CLINTON: This is very much like Benghazi. Republicans are going to continue to use it, beat up on me. I understand that.

ZELENY: The race could be decided by one key demographic: women voters. Sanders holds a large lead among women under 45. Clinton has the same edge among women over 45.

Amy Geider (ph) supporter Clinton eight years ago in Iowa. Now, she's leaning Sanders.

(on camera): So do you think she would be disappointed to hear that? I mean, someone who caucused for her eight years ago is now unsure if -- if they're going to caucus for her this time.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Well, yes, she'd probably be disappointed. I mean, I would be.

ZELENY (voice-over): But Marcella Nicola (ph) says it's time to shatter that glass ceiling.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think it's history in the making, and I hope we're part of it.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CAMEROTA: And joining us now to talk about all of this, Cathy Obradovich, political columnist for "The Des Moines Register"; as well as Ron Brownstein, CNN senior political analyst and editorial director for "The National Journal"; and Mark Preston, executive editor for CNN politics.

Great to have you guys with us at the Mars Cafe.

CUOMO: Put a smile on your face. It's caucus day.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes, yes.

CAMEROTA: Having some great breakfast here, and it's wonderful.

Cathy, you are the Iowan. So let's talk about this "Des Moines Register" poll that just came out and served the gold standard. I won't have to tell you. It came out over the weekend, and it shows Donald Trump winning -- that's what they predict -- over Ted Cruz. Twenty-eight percent to 23 percent. What are you seeing and hearing in Iowa?

CATHY OBRADOVICH, POLITICAL COLUMNIST, "THE DES MOINES REGISTER": So this poll is closer than it looks, actually. I mean, it looks close. And it's really closer than it looks, because Ted Cruz has locked up the people who are most likely to go to the caucuses. Historically, at least. Evangelical voters. Very conservative voters. Donald Trump has more new people, more moderates, more independents coming out for him. He needs a big turnout. And, you know, Ann Selzer (ph), our pollster, says she's not seeing signs of, you know, a big record turnout tonight.

CUOMO: Because you're hearing something very different from the field. Right? Mark, all the campaigns are saying, "We believe we're going to bring more people out this year." What comes against that is what Alisyn was referring to as the gold standard: "The Register" since 1988 has nailed who wins the caucus every time except 2012 when we thought it was Romney and it wound up being Santorum. Do you think this race is more like 2012 in terms of turnout and maybe confusion of outcome?

MARK PRESTON, CNN POLITICS SENIOR EXECUTIVE EDITOR: Well, the poll captured a little bit more of the surge than was there. But correct, they had...

CUOMO: Always apologizing for the polls.

PRESTON: Can you imagine how unorthodox campaign this is. I was out last night with one of Donald Trump's top advisers. And he told me they only uses two pieces of direct mail in this campaign, a Christmas card and they did a letter. A Christmas card, so they kept it and looked at it and thought that, you know, they got a letter that they could put on their fridge.

On the other side, I saw one of Ted Cruz's top guys last night. He told me that basically on Friday and Saturday, they had 55,000 telephone calls from call centers into Iowans. And they knocked on 1,800 on Friday alone. That was yesterday. So if you want to talk about two unorthodox campaigns, there you go.

CUOMO: Trump went with a Christmas card. Cruz went with a subpoena.

CAMEROTA: I saw that. He's scaring people to the polls.

BROWNSTEIN: Cruz is -- Cruz is running, with the exception of that mailer, he is running the classic Iowa, you know, go to every county, organize every bloc, kind of campaign, relying heavily on evangelical churches and pastors.

The problem he's got, I think, is that Trump is an unconventional candidate, not only in the way he's organizing but in the way he's appealing. He is transcending some of the usual fractures we have seen.

Cruz thought he was going to run, ultimately as a candidate to his middle. In the end, Trump kind of runs across these boundaries. He may prevent Cruz from getting an advantage among evangelical Christians that we saw Santorum do in '12, Huckabee do in '08. Even if he doesn't expand the electorate, I think he will still be very competitive.

CAMEROTA: Cathy, one of the interesting things about Iowa is that people can switch their party affiliation at the caucus site. And they can do it strategically or they can do it out of, you know, a change of heart.

And in fact, the Iowa GOP chairman, Jeff Kauffman, said that the secretary of state has confirmed more than 3,000 Democrats who are unaffiliated have registered as Republicans. So that's a whole new factor.

OBRADOVICH: And there are some going the other way, as well. But that has been part of the caucuses, where people can register on caucus night. And, you know, that's why we don't necessarily rely on what they tell us, you know, that they are Republican or Democrat. We rely on them telling us where they're going to caucus with Republicans or Democrats, because in an election, people start to affiliate with whatever candidate that they're pulling for. So Trump is a Republican. They -- it doesn't matter what, you know, they were last week. It's what they are on caucus night that matters.

CUOMO: The candidate can go into the caucus rooms and make their own case.

CAMEROTA: Yes.

CUOMO: You're not going to see them sitting in the hotel room tonight watching returns if they -- if they want to have any chance.

PRESTON: Marco Rubio is talking about it. I think we're going to see Ted Cruz do the same thing. Certainly west of Des Moines here.

OBRADOVICH: And Trump will be in cedar rapids. This is really, really important, because there's a lot of people who are still undecided going into these caucuses. And...

CUOMO: Almost 50 percent. Right?

OBRADOVICH: Or it can change their mind. And that -- that part is really, really key.

BROWNSTEIN: I think one larger point was made, you know, is that from my perspective, both Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are playing with the house's money here in Iowa. Given their strength in New Hampshire, in all of the polls in New Hampshire, this is kind of -- this would be an icing on the cake, certainly for Sanders.

I mean, if Sanders can win here, it would give him a lot of momentum going forward into New Hampshire. But he's got a very substantial lead. And Trump's advantage in New Hampshire is not nearly the strongest position as Sanders, but he's got an incredibly divided field. And one of the other questions, Chris, is does anything happen in Iowa

that provides any clarity to this John Kasich, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie pile-up in New Hampshire.

CUOMO: Let's talk about the Democratic side and look at your polls. But just one quick note. You're the encyclopedia. Ron Brownstein's smarter than you but...

PRESTON: Yes.

CUOMO: The "New York Times" endorses Hillary Clinton, OK, and John Kasich. When was the last time "The New York Times" backed somebody so buried in the field? Look, I can't find it.

PRESTON: I've got to tell you what. I don't know.

CUOMO: That's usual, and a difference in the race.

PRESTON: But "The New York Times" endorsing John Kasich, in general, is not too surprising, given that his politics are more mainstream for the editorial page. Or should I say more liberal editorial page of "The New York Times."

CAMEROTA: We just put up the Democratic poll. Let's do that again, because Hillary Clinton is winning at the moment. She has 45 percent to Bernie Sanders' 42.

CUOMO: The margins.

CAMEROTA: The margin is too thin; it's razor thin. And it's hard to know what this means.

CUOMO: And some people are saying now, Brownstein, that the most important number in this poll is the three at the bottom. Why?

BROWNSTEIN: Yes. Well, because in the Democratic process, if you don't reach what is the threshold for viability, you can recombine. Because I think that's probably overrated in terms of how big an influence it is going to have.

OBRADOVICH: I agree with that.

CUOMO: Why?

BROWNSTEIN: Because -- go ahead.

OBRADOVICH: The O'Malley people are split. I mean...

CUOMO: Is that what they think?

BROWNSTEIN: What we're seeing on the Republican side is very similar to what we're seeing on the Democratic side. In that, the patterns we have seen in the past are kind of reassembling. I mean, Sanders again, much like Trump, is cutting the Democratic electorate along a different line. The generation line is the key, I think, distinction in this race. I mean, he is. And in Iowa, in polling, New Hampshire, South Carolina, where we see

this is much stronger among younger whites than older whites. And then the big question that Iowa won't answer, whatever happens here, is we're going to see in Nevada and South Carolina. Sanders has to show he can break into those minority communities in order to make this a real race.

PRESTON: Let's just point out that we see a poll at 45-42 with a margin of error of four. But at that point, we still see a front- runner in any other state. We're in Iowa right now. You have to do this bizarre system that nobody else really understands, where you have to publicly declare who you're going to support. And we have no idea how that's going to work. I mean, that's the bottom line.

OBRADOVICH: You know, it makes changing your mind more likely, not less likely. And it's still 30 percent going in saying they could change their minds, because it's a process that forces people to change their minds sometimes.

BROWNSTEIN: You know, and the polls are registering votes. The Democratic process, you never -- they're never right.

CAMEROTA: So fascinating. Panel, thanks so much for walking us through it all, just 12 hours from now.

CUOMO: What candidates say today could be the difference. So what will we see in the strategies of who decides to say more, rather than less? We've got Republican presidential candidate Senator Rand Paul coming up in the next hour. Let's see how he spins it.

CAMEROTA: After Iowa, the race moves to New Hampshire. CNN will have a very special event in the Granite State. All three Democratic candidates -- Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders and Martin O'Malley -- will take part in a live presidential town hall on Wednesday night moderated by Anderson Cooper at 8 p.m. Eastern live right here on CNN.

[07:15:03] CUOMO: All right. Hillary Clinton, they're questions that have been chasing her this entire election: Benghazi, the e-mail server, an FBI investigation. We have former Iowa Senator Tom Harkin. He is one of Clinton's top supporters in the state. What does he think of these issues? We'll ask him. We're also going to ask the secretary herself. Hillary Clinton joins us live on NEW DAY ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CUOMO: I'm sitting here talking with former Iowa Senator Tom Harkin. He is obviously a key player in the state's caucuses, and he is for Hillary Clinton. You want the big names around you as the hours are just upon us for the caucus as it starts tonight.

This is going to be a big deal, especially on the Democrat side. This is one of the tightest races that we've seen with the Democrats in Iowa. Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. No matter what poll you look at and see a spread, they're almost all within the margin of error. That means statistically, it is a tie. Let's talk to former senator from Iowa and Hillary Clinton supporter

Tom Harkin. He also joins former president Bill Clinton in Iowa to do a couple of stops yesterday.

Senator, pleasure to see you this morning. What do you say to your fellow Iowans? They seem more excited about Bernie Sanders. If you look at the crowds, you look at the fundraising, why do you believe Hillary Clinton is the better candidate?

TOM HARKIN, FORMER DEMOCRATIC SENATOR OF IOWA: Well, first of all, we had great crowds out. This weekend I was with President Clinton at a couple of stops. Last night, we had sort of our last big row. We had 2,600 people at Lincoln High School here in Des Moines. So I think the enthusiasm is big for Hillary, too.

And it's going to be a close race. I'm not kidding anyone. This is going to be close. But I will say this, Chris. We have 1,681 precincts in Iowa. The Clinton campaign is so well-organized. We have precinct captains in every single precinct. Even Obama never did anything like that in 2008. So we are precinct ready, as they say.

CUOMO: So make the case, because you say that, boy, they've got some ground game. They have some machine, the Clintons. And Bernie Sanders supporters say, "And that's the problem. They are a machine. They're not about the magic of capturing the imagination and hope the way Obama was in 2008, Sanders is today. So what do you want, the machine or somebody who feels it and believes it on a deeper level?"

HARKIN: One of the good things about starting in Iowa with caucuses is it tests your organizational ability. Can you organize things? Can you put things together? And Hillary has done that. She has built this great -- not a machine, it's an organization that functions well.

CUOMO: Why is it -- why is it a virtue to do that and not to be seen as you're an insider who knows how to work the system?

HARKIN: Because a president has to organize the government. A president has to bring people together. Yes, enthuse them but get them working together and pulling together. And that's what Hillary's strength has always been, to work -- she works well with others, as I say, because she can work across party lines, she can work with people to bring people together to actually make things better in the future.

CUOMO: What was your experience with Senator Sanders in terms of his ability to perform in coalitions?

HARKIN: Well, I would say Hillary is the best at that. She -- I worked with her, too. She was on our committee.

CUOMO: Right. But you already signed on with Hillary. That's why I'm asking you about Sanders.

HARKIN: Well, look, yes, look, Bernie is a good friend of mine. But I would say comparing the two in terms of their organizational ability, how to bring people together and get things done, I think Hillary is the best by far.

CUOMO: Now, this expectation that someone can go into Washington and change the game, change it up -- I'm going to play their games. I'm not going to do this insider thing. I'm going to get my stuff done whether they like it or not, is that doable?

HARKIN: No.

CUOMO: That's not cynicism? That's reality to you.

HARKIN: It's reality, Chris. I mean, you've got a Hsupreme ouse to deal with, a Senate to deal with, the Supreme Court, the other branch of government. You have the states out there.

No. Change comes about in America not overnight but in years in terms of that (ph). The thing is, how do you get it moving in the right direction?

Sometimes I like -- America is like -- I was a Navy pilot. So like an aircraft carrier, you're going one way and you want to turn it, it doesn't turn on a dime. But you can get it to turn, and eventually it will go in the right direction.

CUOMO: And you shouldn't see that as the citizen is seen as a reality. Whether you like it or not, that's how it's going to be on the ground. The knock on Sanders.

The knock on Clinton is for judgment. Whether it's Benghazi, whether it's the e-mails. It's not so much the legalities. It's the practicalities of how she decided to do things. Do you believe that is a fair criticism?

HARKIN: I do not. I believe her judgment has been impeccable. I've known her since 1991. I think she has great judgment. It's just that for 20 years the right wing in this country has been assaulting her, assaulting her with lies.

CUOMO: But is she giving them reason to? That's the question?

HARKIN: Yes. The reason she's given is because she is set to run for president, and they are afraid of her being president.

CUOMO: But did the GOP make up the families of the Benghazi victims being told one thing about how it happened and then the public being told a second thing about it? They didn't make that up.

HARKIN: No. But you know, I looked at that thing. Look, she spent 11 hours in front of that committee.

CUOMO: A hostile committee.

HARKIN: Hostile. And I'll tell you what, she came out with her head high and intact after 11 hours of drilling by that committee.

CUOMO: But to her detractors, that just makes her a pro. It doesn't make her necessarily believable. That's what the emails go to also, Senator, is whether or not you can trust her to tell you what's going on and play above board. Fair or unfair is for voters to decide.

HARKIN: Well, did she hide behind the Fifth Amendment or anything like that? No. She answered every single question they would throw at her. She has said -- on the e-mail she said make them all available. Make them -- put them all out there. But she's not controlling that. Someone else is controlling that. She has nothing to hide. She said put them out there.

CUOMO: Full disclosure, in the investigation of the emails, your daughter's name has come up. There were emails about her trying to get a job within the State Department. Do you believe anything was done there that was wrong? And what does that speak to in terms of how the process works?

HARKIN: No. I mean, I haven't read all the e-mails. My daughter was first in her class in high school, did great in college, a graduate of Georgetown Law School. And she wanted to work in the department.

CUOMO: War crimes.

HARKIN: War crimes. Ambassador at large for war crimes. And so that's how she got that job. I -- I don't know how else I can answer that.

CUOMO: Right. So you don't see it -- you think that this issue stays where it is; it doesn't hang over her head, certainly, with Democrats?

HARKIN: Not -- no, not at all. What issues?

CUOMO: If there's an indictment. That's the big thing here. If there's an indictment from the Department of Justice, what would that mean?

HARKIN: If, if, if. What if Ted Cruz is indicted? What if Trump is indicted? You can raise all of these kind of crazy "what-ifs." The fact is, Hillary has done nothing wrong. She's played above board. And I can tell you, she is a person of the highest integrity. I swear to that.

CUOMO: Well, look, what do we have on either side? We have that they're not under investigation by the FBI. But on the other side, when Tom Harkin in Iowa says that somebody has high integrity, it's going to matter to the voters.

HARKIN: First of all, she's not under investigation. But the issue of the emails and stuff like that is under investigation.

CUOMO: True.

HARKIN: But not her.

CUOMO: Fair legal distinction.

HARKIN: It is true.

CUOMO: That's why you're useful. You're right at the end. HARKIN: Thanks, Chris.

CUOMO: Thank you very much, Senator. Former Iowa Senator Tom Harkin. Big player here in Iowa to this day.

Now, in just a few minutes, Alisyn is going to be speaking with the Democratic presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton, the front-runner. Yes, it's statistically tied in Iowa. But it isn't overall. Hillary has big margins in the national numbers.

Tomorrow, the morning after the Iowa caucuses, we will be live on the next most important place in the race, Manchester, New Hampshire. So you can come see us at the Waterworks Cafe as the race moves to the Granite State, and coffee is on Alisyn.

What will make the big difference here in Iowa? One simple thing: turnout. You have to come out and caucus. The races are counting on it from top to bottom. Who do they believe will show up? Do we see evidence of a surge for these populist candidates like Trump and Sanders? What is being done to juice those numbers. We have all of it ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PEREIRA: Good to have you back with us here on NEW DAY. We have more --