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New Day
Cruz Upsets Trump In Iowa, Rubio Posts Close Third; Trump Campaign Reacts To Iowa Defeat; Iowa Democratic Race Too Close To Call; Marco Rubio's Strong Third Place Finish In Iowa. Aired 7:30-8a ET
Aired February 02, 2016 - 07:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[07:30:00] MAEVE RESTON, CNN NATIONAL POLITICAL REPORTER: And clearly that argument won the day not only for Ted Cruz but for Marco Rubio in the final hours. And a lot of the evangelicals were having kind of an agonizing decision, thinking that Donald Trump would be a stronger commander in chief but it seems like ultimately they went with the other two as being closer to where their values are.
DAVID GREGORY, FMR. MODERATOR, "MEET THE PRESS": I'm interested in what the electorate looks like in New Hampshire. Remember, it's an open primary system here so Democrats and independents can vote either way, which is significant. And you know, Donald Trump did do well among evangelicals, though he did not prevail. He did well if you cared about immigration. Rubio stepped up if you cared about national security. But you think about New Hampshire -- if you're worried about losing your job to foreigners, whether they're immigrants, others, if you're worried about getting screwed as a worker in this country because of trade, Donald Trump is really still speaking to those disaffected Democrats and this now moves into the kind of electorate, you know well, that I think favors him still when it's part of --
RESTON: Even Bernie Sanders. That -- what will be so fun to watch here is, is there actually a crossover vote between Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, with those disaffected people who are not happy with the way the economy is going. Sometimes the role of independents is a little overplayed in New Hampshire, I'm sure Paul would say. But it will be fascinating to see where they end up.
CHRIS CUOMO, CNN ANCHOR: We saw that boost last night, Paul, that we thought would play strictly to Trump's advantage, and it did not. That said, he is very strong here in New Hampshire. It's interesting, though. Do you think he can win the race? He did not do well at all last night.
PAUL STEINHAUSER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I just talked to one of Rubio's top guys here in New Hampshire. They're thrilled, of course, about the results there. They realize they have a fight here but this gives Rubio a boost now against the three guys that really didn't spend any time in Iowa. John Kasich, he's been here nonstop. Jeb Bush and Chris Christie -- this definitely gives Rubio maybe a leg up over them as they battle for that center right. As for Trump, very strong organization here. Lots of huge rallies. Now is crunch time, though, to see if his organization here can get out the vote.
CUOMO: -- a new name pop up here in New Hampshire.
ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: Absolutely. That's what John Kasich is banking it on.
GREGORY: But Trump learned, he was winging it in Iowa. He really was. He picked up Jerry Falwell, he got serious there at the end, and he had an appeal to evangelicals that went beyond religion.
STEINHAUSER: Brought Sarah Palin in.
GREGORY: Brought Sarah Palin in. So here, he's going to have to get real about the fact that good old fashioned organization and voter turnout really worked for Cruz. You can't totally wing it.
CAMEROTA: David, Paul, Maeve, we have to leave it there. Thank you guys very much. Go get a cup of coffee. We appreciate you guys being here. Iowa voters appear to give Donald Trump a demotion, taking his number one status in the polls and making him number two in the caucuses. How does his campaign strategy change, now, going forward? We will talk with him about that.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[07:36:28] CAMEROTA: Donald Trump last night striking a gracious tone in his speech to Iowa supporters despite losing to Ted Cruz in the caucuses. Joining us now to discuss Trump's strategy moving forward is co-chairman of Trump's New Hampshire campaign, Steven Stefanik. Steven, thanks so much for being here.
STEVEN STEFANIK, CO-CHAIRMAN FOR DONALD TRUMP'S NEW HAMPSHIRE CAMPAIGN: Thank you for having me.
CAMEROTA: I hope you got a cup of coffee here at the wonderful Waterworks cafe.
STEFANIK: Yes, I did.
CAMEROTA: OK, great. Are you surprised Donald Trump did not win Iowa?
STEFANIK: A little disappointed but he was never, when we started this back in June, which is when I first came out and endorsed Donald Trump, he was never supposed to win Iowa.
CAMEROTA: Well the latest polls suggested he was going to win Iowa.
STEFANIK: And that is true. And it was disappointing that we didn't win but we're focused on New Hampshire. I've always been focused on New Hampshire. And, as we like to say here in New Hampshire, Iowa picks corn, New Hampshire picks presidents.
CAMEROTA: One of the interesting entrance polls, CNN entrance polls from last night, because they ask people as they head into the caucuses how they're feeling, was, when they decided, when they made their decision about who they would caucus for -- and it was interesting because basically, Marco Rubio -- well let me show this, shares my values. This is the first they want me to talk about which is, Ted Cruz got 38 percent. Rubio got 21 percent. Carson, 15. Rand Paul, 7. Look at where Donald Trump is there, he gets 5 percent. So let's talk about that first, which is, in terms of Iowa, they did not feel that he best shared their values.
STEFANIK: And again, I can't speak to Iowa. I'm here in New Hampshire. Iowa is a different dynamic with the evangelicals in Iowa. In New Hampshire, I believe you will see that poll significantly different. I believe that Donald Trump -- I've never seen, I've been co-chair of the Giuliani campaign. I was involved in Newt Gingrich's campaign -- I've never seen the level of excitement that I have with Donald Trump since the summer.
CAMEROTA: One of the most surprising things about last night was not only that he came in second but that he came very close to Marco Rubio. Marco Rubio almost tied Donald Trump. Marco Rubio came in third and one of the entrance polls also asked, when did you decide who you were going to vote for? And what they found was that people broke for -- the people who decided in the last few days went towards Marco Rubio. So here you see Marco Rubio, when voters who decided in the last few days, 30 percent of them went for Rubio, 25 percent went to Cruz, 14 percent went to Trump, and I guess that begs the question of whether skipping that final debate in Iowa as he did, hurt Donald Trump.
STEFANIK: And again, I'm not sure whether it helped or hurt, but we are moving forward here in New Hampshire. I know Donald Trump is looking forward enthusiastically to the debate we have here in New Hampshire on Saturday and I think Donald Trump will prevail in that debate and he will prevail and surprise a lot of people with how strongly he prevails here in New Hampshire.
CAMEROTA: You know, last night proved that polls get it wrong and there's something comforting about that, that really it does come down to voters and that there are still surprises in store.
STEFANIK: Oh, yes. Absolutely.
CAMEROTA: That voters, at the end of the day, have a say more than pollsters. But let's look at the latest -- it's interesting to look at the latest poll in New Hampshire because we have that here. This is the latest CNN/WMUR poll and it was taken just in the past few days. So it's not after Iowa. But let me show you here. Trump has 30 percent, Cruz has 12, but it is interesting to look what's happened since mid-January. Trump support has softened a bit, down from 34 percent, as has Ted Cruz, as Rubio has picked up a little bit. What do you think is going to happen in New Hampshire?
[07:40:11] STEFANIK: First of all, I think Donald Trump will by far be the winner here in New Hampshire. It's going to be a very interesting dynamic between not only Cruz and Rubio, but also between Rubio and Christie and Kasich as far as who is going to get that establishment lane.
CAMEROTA: Because a all of them have put a lot of time and investment here into New Hampshire.
STEFANIK: Absolutely.
CAMEROTA: And so, do you think that it's time, after Iowa, for a reshuffling of the deck?
STEFANIK: Well, I think that there's been so much investment by the -- first, second, and third place. And the question is, is it going to be Rubio? Is it going to be Cruz? Where do they all come out? Now one advantage that Cruz had was the strong evangelical vote in Iowa. He does not have that here in New Hampshire and we have, in New Hampshire, attracted and have a very, very strong ground game here in New Hampshire. And Donald Trump has been coming here since June on a very regular basis. Much more so than, for example, Ted Cruz. He's been here recently but we've been building a ground game since June. We've had, Donald Trump has been in front of almost 100,000 people since June with all the different events we've done here in New Hampshire and Massachusetts, right across the border. And with that number of people who have signed up on event bright, who have filled out endorsement cards, we have tens of thousands of people that we've been putting into a database and mining that database.
And the amazing thing to look at is the number of people who are across the board. We are attracting independents, Republicans, and a significant number of Democrats, saying, I'm supporting Donald Trump.
CAMEROTA: I like that you are whispering it, Steven. It will be very interesting to see what happens here during the next week. Thanks so much for coming in and talk to NEW DAY.
STEFANIK: You're welcome.
CAMEROTA: Well, the dust is still settling on just how the Democrats fared in Iowa. Hillary Clinton's campaign is declaring victory but it's not yet official. Is she declaring too soon? We'll discuss what happened there last night.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[07:45:49] CUOMO: Hillary Clinton declaring victory in Iowa without an official winner being named by the state's Democratic party. So can we expect more nail biters between Clinton and Bernie sanders now as we get to the primaries in New Hampshire and Nevada and South Carolina? Let's discuss what happened, what it means, and what happens next with CNN's senior political commentator and former Obama senior adviser, David Axelrod joins us now.
Axe, I have an expression that I think is very appropriate here, I'd like your take on it. Presidential and mayoral elections are unique in that people are looking not for a replica but a remedy. How do you see that playing out in this race? That's in his book, by the way.
DAVID AXELROD, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: In the Democratic race?
CAMEROTA: It's not original. AXELROD: In the Democratic race? Look, I think Hillary Clinton, actually -- when I talk replica and remedy, I'm talking about style, approach. In that sense, she is quite different than President Obama. So I don't think that voters are necessarily looking -- certainly Democratic voters, for a remedy to his policies. I think one of the reasons why she survived last night was because more voters, at least in that entrance poll, said they want to continue the policies of the president than they want more liberal policies than the president. They want to build on what he's done and that's really what her campaign has stressed. But she did survive last night. I think her campaign did well to survive in a high turnout election, which everyone said would favor Sanders, but it was a tough night, it was a nail biter.
CAMEROTAL Yes, I mean, let's talk about that. Razor-thin margin. As of this hour this morning, the state chair still has not actually declared the winner, though Hillary Clinton's campaign has declared victory. So look at this, David. I mean, 49.8 percent to 49.6 percent. But getting back to your point, who do you think gets the psychic victory coming out of Iowa?
AXELROD: It's a funny business we're in because like, who cares at the end of the day who is one tenth of a point up or one tenth of a point down? It's all about the perceptions. The fact is this race was a tie and I think she can leave Iowa, which is not a terribly friendly state to her, hasn't historically been, feeling like she escaped. And Bernie can take some real pleasure in the fact that he ran a very strong race there and basically played the reigning champion to a tie. I think he needed a knockout to fundamentally change the dynamics of this race but he had a good night. He'll raise money off of it, and that money will allow him to hang around in this race for a long time, regardless of what happens after New Hampshire.
CUOMO: What's the lesson that you learned in 2008 about going from Iowa to New Hampshire? Obviously, Hillary performing differently there in your race, wound up taking it by a few points. What does that mean about her ability to organize and rebound?
AXELROD: Well look, it's a very changeable place. I remember we arrived in New Hampshire the dawn after the Iowa caucuses like a conquering army ready to dictate the terms of surrender. And, we were 11 points ahead in the polls five days before the New Hampshire primary, and we lost by two points. So it's not a layup that everything that polls suggest are going to happen five days in advance or a week in advance is going to happen. He really does have a strong base there, though. It would be surprising to me if Bernie Sanders lost in New Hampshire. She might be able to tighten it up a little but she would have done better to have won by a few points in Iowa in order to do that. I think Bernie is in for another good night. The real question is, what happens after New Hampshire? What happens in states that aren't overwhelmingly white and electorates that aren't overwhelmingly liberal? Can he make inroads in those states and that's still the question for him. Can he do well in a Nevada that's more diverse, and particularly in a South Carolina where the majority of the voters will be African-American in the Democratic primary. CAMEROTA: Yes, we pose the questions. You give us the answers. So what's the answer to that? What will happen in South Carolina and Nevada, David?
AXELROD: Well, first of all, let me say, the prediction business is very rough this year. So I'm a little leery. But I will say this. I think she goes in with real advantages there and there's no real sense that I can see that he's made big inroads there. And we'll see if a big win in New Hampshire affects that, but she has more of a connection and an affinity with those minority voters in those states than Bernie Sanders does just by dint of familiarity. And it's going to be a hard dynamic to change within a matter of weeks.
CUOMO: Axelrod is not in the predicting business. He's in the winning business is what he's in. He knows how to run a message in a campaign--
AXELROD: The winning business isn't doing so well either, apparently.
CAMEROTA: David, thank you. Great to talk to you.
AXELROD: All right. Good to see you guys.
CUOMO: All right, so that's what's going on in the Democratic side. On the GOP side, Marco Rubio didn't just finish third, he got the same number of delegates as the second place finisher, Donald Trump. So what does that mean now? Is this the face of the man to take on Trump and Cruz? Could he be the most electable Republican? We'll discuss Rubio's momentum into New Hampshire next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[07:54:53] CUOMO: There is a new word for your political vocabulary. It is "Marco-mentum". That is what people are calling Marco Rubio, the senator from Florida, his finish of third, but just nipping at the heels of second place finisher, Donald Trump. They are actually given the same number of delegates. So why did this happen and what does it mean going forward?
Let's bring in Drew Cline. He's the former editorial page editor for "The New Hampshire Union Leader" and a Marco Rubio supporter. It's good to have you here with us, Drew.
DREW CLINE, FORMER EDITORIAL PAGE EDITOR, THE NEW HAMPSHIRE UNION LEADER: It's good to be here.
CUOMO: So, let's look at some of the numbers, why this happened. It happened very late for Rubio, his over performing the polls. "The Des Moines Register", as you know, spot on since 1988, got it wrong last night. Big reasons why. Last few days. A lot of people who voted in the last few days, 30 percent went for Rubio. Do you think he can win the actual election? The general, that number went for Rubio. College kids went for Rubio last night, if we want to put those up so he numbers can verify the statement by the anchor, there we go. Why do you think that happened? CLINE: Well there's a couple of reasons. One is the candidate. Rubio's just an incredible candidate. He's got the optimism, he's got the message, he really connects with people. And you see that in New Hampshire at a lot of these town hall meetings and a lot of these house parties. When people leave these house parties, they leave enthusiastic for Marco Rubio. But the other one is, the campaign. They have a great operation, a great ground game, they identified their voters, and they're doing the same thing in New Hampshire.
CUOMO: So the path forward for Marco Rubio is to be the alternative to the extreme. Trump, Cruz. But that means galvanizing a very disparate group of governors that are in the GOP. Why would a Kasich, who is showing strongly right here in the run up polls in New Hampshire, a Bush, a Christie, get behind Marco Rubio?
CLINE: Because Marco Rubio is the candidate who can really unify the whole party. I mean, that's one of the reasons why I got on board with Rubio early on. Not just because he has the best policies and he really connects well with people but he has the opportunity, the only candidate who really connects with people, not just with conservatives, fellow conservatives, but with people from all different parts of the sort of Republican spectrum, or the center right spectrum, if you will. Rubio really has the opportunity to bring people on board. He's a uniter and I think you saw that in Iowa this time and you're going to see it in New Hampshire this week.
CUOMO: How surprised were you by the numbers?
CLINE: I wasn't surprised at the surge for Rubio. I was surprised at how big the numbers -- I think someone said on twitter last night, if one more day, Rubio would have come in second, and I think that's right.
CUOMO: Well, I mean, statistically he's right there. He got the same number of delegates. Do you think Trump not going to the debate hurt him?
CLINE: Yes, of course. Because if you're undecided and you're not already a committed Trump supporter, you are watching the debate to make up your mind. So, of course it hurt him. Trump's a hot air balloon with a leak right now. And that's not where you want to be going into New Hampshire.
CUOMO: We look at New Hampshire. Could be a curve ball for Rubio, here. He is not polling as high as other COP people who weren't a player in Iowa. What happens if he's four or five in New Hampshire and you get new names introduced? Maybe a Kasich? Maybe a Rubio -- not Rubio. Christie or maybe Kasich here?
CLINE: Honestly, I just don't see that happening. I've been going to a lot of his events.
CUOMO: Right. You know the state well. Tell us why.
CLINE: Well, I was at a couple of events in the past couple of weeks for other candidates and again, you talk to people who leave those events and they still are uncommitted. I just don't get a feel for momentum for either of these other Republican candidates but you feel it with Rubio.
CUOMO: A big X factor here in New Hampshire we're going to have to watch, independents can vote for the Republican. If Bernie Sanders has as big a lead as people say he does, if he maintains it, they may say, well even Democrats, why would I vote on that side? I think I'mg going to vote on the Republican side. That could give an infusion of energy there, we'll see which way it goes. Drew Cline, thank you very much. Appreciate you being here. Look forward to watching it with you on the way forward. We have a lot more information for you on the results out of Iowa. Remember, it still hasn't been announced as final from the state Democratic party here. So let's get right to it.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I-VT), DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Are you guys ready for a radical idea?
It looks like we are in a virtual tie.
HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Breathing a big sigh of relief. Thank you, Iowa.
SANDERS: What Iowa has begun tonight is a political revolution.
CLINTON: I am a progressive, who gets things done for people.
CUOMO: Do you take this as a victory regardless of what the margin is?
SANDERS: Absolutely.
DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We will go on to easily beat Hillary or Bernie or whoever the hell they throw up there.
SEN. TED CRUZ (R-TX), PRESDIENTIAL CANDIDATE: The state of Iowa has spoken. To God be the glory.
SEN. MARCO RUBIO (R-FL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: So this is the moment they said would never happen. When I am our nominee, we are going to unify this party.
TRUMP: Iowa, we love you. We thank you. I think I might come here and buy a farm. I love it. OK?
