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Iowa Caucus Results. Aired 8:30-9a ET

Aired February 02, 2016 - 08:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[08:30:00] CHRIS CUOMO, CNN ANCHOR: John King, come up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: Hillary Clinton declaring victory in Iowa last night despite a razor thin margin, while Ted Cruz defeating Trump in the state. So what's behind the numbers and who came out to vote exactly? CNN's John King joins us to help us see how it all played out and what lessons the campaigns now take to New Hampshire and beyond.

Good morning, John. We know you've had a late night.

JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Alisyn and Chris, good morning to you. That's all right, it's time to count votes. We get two, three hours sleep will do.

Iowa looks pretty lonely there, right? That is a reminder it's just the first state to vote, but it's a very important state. Let's get a little closer look at the results right here and start with the Republicans. You guys have been talking about this all morning.

Let's start by giving Ted Cruz and this organization the credit they deserved. He was under withering attack in the final week on television by all of the other candidates, and look at that number, 51,649. That is a record setting, record breaking vote total in Iowa in a Republican caucus. In fact, the top three candidates all broke the previous record. So turnout was up. Ted Cruz over performing his poll numbers with a mix of sophistication, a heavy data campaign and shoe leather, a network of evangelicals that brought him to victory.

[08:35:05] Trump underperforming is the big conversation tonight. He actually underperformed his polls. Most insurgent candidates over perform. So that's the conversation as you move on into New Hampshire.

Just want to look at a couple of things here. Marco Rubio, in a surprisingly close third place finish. How did he do that? Well, Marco Rubio won on the old Romney map, if you will. Any place with a city in the suburbs in the Des Moines area and in the suburbs to the west of Des Moines, Dallas County. But Ted Cruz, again, to his credit, guys, ran competitive in places where you think you have more moderate establishment Republicans. They found every conservative and they turned them out. That is why Ted Cruz is your big winner today.

Let's take a quick look at the Democratic race in Iowa. And you move it over. This is as close as you get. The Iowa Democratic Party tells us there is one more precinct in the Des Moines area that has yet to report, as we wait to see later today if we get those results. Somebody went to sleep holding the slip of paper, we guess. It looks, at the moment, that Hillary Clinton, though, will win by about that much, a delegate or two out of the state of Iowa. And then we go on to New Hampshire. Guys, again, if you come back to the national map, only one state, but a very important state that has shaken up the race as we move forward.

CUOMO: The Maxwell Smart margin. Missed it by that much.

So what does it mean going forward to New Hampshire, John?

KING: Well, let's move to New Hampshire. Look, at the moment, one of the things - sometimes New Hampshire says thanks but no thanks to Iowa. So let's see if the polling shifts in the next couple of days. On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders is way ahead in New Hampshire at the moment. He's from neighboring Vermont, of course. Remember, though, Hillary Clinton did surprise Barack Obama by coming back in New Hampshire eight years ago. Let's see how that one plays out. But her plan mainly is to try to sustain in New Hampshire and then move on.

I want to switch to the Republicans in New Hampshire for one minute, because if you go back in time, of course this was Mitt Romney in a runaway four years ago. But if you're Ted Cruz, can you win New Hampshire? No evangelicals in New Hampshire, so Ted Cruz doesn't have that, but there are libertarians. The state is "live free or die" is the New Hampshire motto.

See this pinkish color here? That's Ron Paul, 23 percent last time. So if you still have Trump, Rubio, Bush, Kasich, Christie splitting the establishment vote, there is a lane for Ted Cruz. Is that a lane to victory? I'm skeptical. But is there a lane for Ted Cruz to have a strong performance in New Hampshire after his Iowa victory, especially now that we know how good his organization is? Absolutely. Keep an eye on that.

One of the things I will say, though, as we go beyond New Hampshire, New Hampshire, the biggest role in New Hampshire in the Republican race is going to be settling among all those establishment candidates. Rubio says now I'm the dominate establishment guy. Trump has something to prove. He draws a lot of establishment votes. But then what happens to Bush, Christie, and Kasich? And then, guys, the calendar shifts to the south and that's when both the Clinton campaign and the Cruz campaign think it shifts back into their territory.

CAMEROTA: Oh, OK, well let's go there, John. I mean look into your crystal ball. What happens when it shifts beyond New Hampshire?

KING: Well, let me change a little bit here and show you something. We're going to go to demographics right now and we're going to start with the Democrats. This is the national African American population. Let me shrink this down a little bit and move this over so you can see it a little bit better and pull it up a little bit, because after New Hampshire up here, Nevada comes up out west, and then everything else, you have South Carolina, and then we stay mostly in the south. There are other states that sprinkle in, in the month of March, but predominately we're down in the south.

Look at the African American population. That is what Hillary Clinton thinks is her firewall. Bernie Sanders, her campaign believes, doesn't have the historical relationships with these communities that she has. That's the African American population.

Let me bring this up and show you something else she hopes helps her. Again, the darker the area, the higher the concentration of that electorate. You also have more Latino voters and out in Nevada as well. So Hillary Clinton is hoping, as you get out of the predominantly white states of Iowa and New Hampshire, that she can win with the traditional Democratic base. We'll see what happens. If Bernie Sanders continues to win, can he improve his standing there? That's one thing.

Now let's go to the Republican side. Do not discount Ted Cruz. The darker the area, the higher the percentage of evangelicals, right? Here's Iowa. A decent amount of evangelicals. New Hampshire, I'm going to move it over a little bit for you, almost no evangelicals. So it's a bit tougher.

But when we get to South Carolina and then when you get to Super Tuesday and beyond, most of those states are down here. Look how dark that is? That is a higher percentage of evangelicals. We know most of them are Cruz voters and we know that he has proven in Iowa that he knows how to identify them and turn them out. So if you want to stop Ted Cruz, you better blunt his momentum before we get down here.

CAMEROTA: So interesting, John, I've never seen it broken out into the demographics like that. Thanks so much for showing us that.

KING: Thank you.

CUOMO: And it's interesting that that factor plays so strongly on both sides of the race.

CAMEROTA: Right.

CUOMO: So we'll be tracking it.

Presidential candidates shifting their focus, of course, from Iowa to New Hampshire. We're going to break down the different challenges they face here in the granite state.

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[08:43:12] CAMEROTA: We are live at the Waterworks Cafe here in Manchester, New Hampshire, the state where all of the candidates are arriving today fresh off the Iowa caucuses. Ted Cruz won for the Republicans last night and Hillary Clinton says she won for the Democrats, though that's not exactly official yet.

So what happens now? Let's bring back David Gregory.

David, great to have you here with your perspective this morning.

DAVID GREGORY, FORMER MODERATOR, "MEET THE PRESS": Thank you.

CAMEROTA: So what changed last night?

GREGORY: I think the whole race changed last night, especially on the Republican side. I mean here was Trump with this aura of invincibility. A man who would, you know, bring out his poll numbers at every - at every stop he made in Iowa. And now we're got a real race. We see some of the fundamentals of politics start to kick in and that was true for Cruz, certainly true for Rubio, who gets the same number of delegates out of Iowa as Trump does. So it's effectively a tie, even though he comes in third, but a very strong third. He's got momentum now.

And now we really kind of test, in a different kind of electorate, where the Republican race goes. I would say - and I was talking to some people here in Waterworks. I saw a guy with a make a great -- America great hat again. I wanted to buy it.

CAMEROTA: Donald Trump's slogan.

GREGORY: Yes, and I - he wouldn't sell it to me. But he made a point about where Trump's strength is, which is people who want to see something different, who want to shake up the political order. People who are really listening to Trump when he talks about the impact of trade on jobs and people being left out of the economy and people who are afraid, afraid, frankly, of, you know, foreigners coming into the country and taking their job. I mean it's got a nativist message. It's very - very fearful, but it - it does resonate.

CAMEROTA: But aren't you describing New Hampshire voters?

GREGORY: Yes.

CAMEROTA: I mean everything that you've just said. So if he wins big in New Hampshire, then I guess the deck is reshuffled again.

GREGORY: Yes.

CAMEROTA: Or has something fundamentally changed last night?

GREGORY: Well, it may have. Well, I think what fundamentally changed is that Marco Rubio becomes the establishment candidate. You know -

CAMEROTA: Hey, you know, don't tell that to John Kasich. Don't tell that to Chris Christie.

GREGORY: Yes.

CAMEROTA: I mean they still think that in New Hampshire they will be the establishment candidate.

[08:45:02] GREGORY: All right. I mean - no, it got a little intimidating there for a minute when you told me not to -

CAMEROTA: I know. Yes, don't mention that because -

GREGORY: No, I - I hear you.

CAMEROTA: I mean, I don't know how you can say that so definitively after Iowa.

GREGORY: Well, because my view is that - that Rubio outperformed in Iowa. He was viewed as highly electable. He could attract social conservatives and more moderate Republicans in a state like Iowa.

Don't forget, Rubio comes of age as a Tea Party favorite. Now he's seen as the Mr. Establishment. He can draw from Ted Cruz. And I think the reality is -- Look, I think you are right. If you are Jeb Bush, if you're John Kasich or if you're Chris Christie, you are going to say hey wait a minute, New Hampshire is my chance to take a stand and I'm going to go for it. And they are going to go for it. I think that helps Trump here and hurts Rubio. So we'll see how Rubio does.

I think that part has changed. I think Trump is still formidable, but he doesn't have the mystique. We're going to have now watch Trump and see what he does after a loss. After really being pierced with all of his veneer and all of his showmanship, let's see what he can do.

CAMEROTA: On the Democratic side, razor thin margin between Hillary and Bernie. He says we're in a virtual tie. She says that she's the winner. So who won?

GREGORY: I think Bernie Sanders won. Look I get it, a victory is a victory. I'm not trying to deny that. But this morning, great interview this morning by Chris with Bernie Sanders. He comes back into New Hampshire with momentum. Let's be honest. Hillary Clinton wanted a death blow in Iowa. She lost in 2008 in a huge blow to her campaign and catapults Barack Obama. She gets all of that wisdom from losing and all of that help from team Obama and she can't really put him away.

CAMEROTA: But the flipside, I mean, is that she did shake off the specter of a loss in Iowa. She has narrowly won.

GREGORY: She won and she can probably tighten it up in New Hampshire. And you were talking to Axelrod before. The reality is that Sanders really doesn't have an act that can travel well. And unlike 2008, Hillary Clinton is prepared to go the long haul. She can go and really win this thing over time.

May I say one other thing I forgot about Trump, if I touch it (inaudible). His negatives are very high. Highest negatives in the race. Rubio has the highest positives in the race. Don't forget, as that race winnows, those negatives become a real drag on him.

CAMEROTA: And you know what they say about New Hampshire? Don't take it for granite. You're welcome.

GREGORY: Live free or die. That's what George Bush would say.

(LAUGHTER)

CAMEROTA: I recognize that impression. That's great. David Gregory, great to have had you here with with us all morning.

GREGORY: Thank you.

Well the results in Iowa showed the GOP establishment struggling to resonate with voters, will so-called outsider candidates be able to hold onto the lead here in New Hampshire? We'll explore that.

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[08:51:29] CUOMO: Ana Navarro is here and she's got us laughing. We're talking about so-called outsider candidates with a big night in Iowa. Will the trend carry through to New Hampshire?

Let's discuss. We have CNN political commentator and Jeb Bush supporter, as we said, Ana Navarro. And CNN political commentator and Donald Trump supporter, Jeffrey Lord. Good to have you both.

Oh, Jeffrey has a different background this morning, but I still recognize you.

So going into last night, not such a great night for Jeb Bush. What do you believe the story of the results were in the caucuses?

ANA NAVARRO, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, look, I think you are right. I think it was not a good night for Jeb. I was yesterday at his last event in Des Moines and I obviously knew he wasn't going to win. He knew he wasn't going to win. I will tell you, I do think the process in Iowa made him a better candidate for New Hampshire. I saw him in the last town hall. I haven't been in one for awhile and I thought well gee, he finally got the hang of this. He was very, very good.

I think New Hampshire is where his focus needs to be. Where he needs to reboot. Reset. Refocus and leave it all on the field. I think you are going to see the same from Chris Christie, from John Kasich. They know that this is their (inaudible). This is their state where they have got to fight it out. They were not fighting to win in Iowa. They will be fighting in New Hampshire.

CAMEROTA: Jeffrey, let's talk about the big headline and that is that polls were wrong. Donald Trump did not win Iowa, he came in second. That wasn't --

NAVARRO: Let's rephrase that. Donald Trump is a loser.

(LAUGHTER)

CAMEROTA: You heard it. She is throwing down the gauntlet.

JEFFREY LORD, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: I wondered how long it would take Ana to go there and the answer is .2 seconds.

(LAUGHTER)

CAMEROTA: So how do you spin it, Jeffrey? LORD: How do I spin it? Look, he came in second. He's never run for office before. He was told don't go to Iowa. He came in second. He is ahead in New Hampshire. But look, this is a guy who literally wrote a book called "Never Give Up." So I'm certain he'll be there in New Hampshire today and he'll be back at it. He -- Ana was saying Jeb Bush has become a better candidate, I think Donald Trump has become a better candidate. He's getting very good at this.

CUOMO: He had uncommon humility last night. Very gracious when he was exiting the race. What does that speak to?

LORD: Well you know, I'm always sort of amused at the notion -- the public image here. The Donald Trump I know is a very gracious man, is a very caring man. So there it was on display for all to see last night. So this is what you do when you lose a race. You manfully stand up and acknowledge it and you move on. And the Trump campaign has moved on. And I would add, of course, famously Ronald Reagan lost Iowa and went on to win New Hampshire.

NAVARRO: Oh Jeffrey, let us get through one segment where you don't compare Donald Trump to Ronald Reagan, please. That man is turning over on his grave. Let me tell you this. I still give Donald Trump a lot of credit. You've got to -- I mean think about this. This is a man who called Iowans stupid to their face, kind of mocked communion in the House (ph), that he would never ask God for forgiveness. Has been married three times. Has had affairs that are completely public. And he still had no organization visible to the naked eye. Apparently there was some but, you know, we never saw it. And he still managed to come in second. But I think what it tells you is that Donald Trump may have a ceiling and he hit it last night.

CAMEROTA: Let's talk about another big headline. Your friend, Marco Rubio. He had a stronger showing than people predicted. What does that mean for him going forward?

[08:55:02] NAVARRO: Look, I think it means that he tries to fight to portray himself as the establishment alternative to Cruz and Trump because make no mistake about it, we dislike Trump as much as we dislike Cruz. I think yesterday for a lot of the establishment it was, you know, Trump lost. Hallelujah. Cruz won, oh hell. Now what?

So people are going to be looking for an alternative, at some point they are going to be looking for a unifying force for the establishment. Marco is going to try to portray himself as that, as the guy who can bridge the gap. But in New Hampshire, he's going to get competition that he did not get in Iowa.

CUOMO: So Jeffrey, what does Trump need to do in New Hampshire? The polls, as suggestive if not predictive, have him up here by a healthy margin.

LORD: Yeah, he needs to be organized. You know, a primary situation is different than a caucus. So we're sort of in the back of the mainstream here of how these things are decided, at least in New Hampshire and South Carolina and some of these early states. So he needs to be organized. He needs to get up there. He needs to deliver his message. And he needs to get at it. And I have not the slightest doubt that he will do that. And, you know, to Ana's point --

CAMEROTA: Jeffrey, Ana, thank you --

LORD: To Ana's point --

CAMEROTA: One second, Jeffrey. Quickly.

LORD: I think Marco Rubio --

NAVARRO: If you give a Ronald Reagan reference right now --

LORD: -- is becoming the establishment guy.

NAVARRO: -- I'm telling you I'm going to Pennsylvania and I'm beating you up.

CAMEROTA: There you go.

(LAUGHTER)

CAMEROTA: Jeffrey, Ana, thank you both so much. Great to talk to you. Our thanks to Water Works Cafe and to Manchester, New Hampshire, for all of the hospitality.

NAVARRO: (Inaudible) baby!

CAMEROTA: There you go. "NEWSROOM" with Carol Costello picks up right after this short break.

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