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Facebook Details "Trending Topics" And Denies Bias; Trump & Ryan Tout "Positive Step" Toward Unity; Zimmerman Tries To Sell Infamous Gun; Professor has 13 True/False Questions That Will Predict The 2016 Election. Aired 7:30-8a ET

Aired May 13, 2016 - 07:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[07:31:00] CHRIS CUOMO, CNN ANCHOR: Breaking news out of Manchester, New Hampshire. An ongoing situation. There's a manhunt underway right now after two police officers were shot. The good news, the police chief is saying their injuries are not life-threatening.

The suspect is believed to be a white male, long hair, trench coat. Some schools in Manchester are closed. People are being told to shelter in place as police are actively on his trail.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: Operations back to normal this morning at Andrew Air Base in Maryland after a security scare on Thursday. A woman was taken into custody after she claimed to have a bomb near the main gate. No explosives were found. The base says no missions were affected, no flights redirected due to that incident.

BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN ANCHOR: Facebook is trying to face down critics, boasting a 28-page document detailing how it comes up with its trending topics. Facebook's been accused of downplaying conservative- leaning news. It admits that human editors do play a big part in picking those topics.

And in a separate post, CEO Mark Zuckerberg, for the first time, is denying any bias. He's also promising to invite leading conservatives to talk with him about the issue.

BERMAN: All right, Donald Trump taking a break from the campaign today after what he called a great day in Washington, planting the seeds of unification in his meeting with Paul Ryan and unleashing a charm offensive on the rest of the Republican congressional leadership. So, whose Republican Party is this?

Joining us now, David Frum, senior editor at "The Atlantic", and Ana Navarro, CNN political commentator and a Republican consultant. Ana, how about the answer to that question? Whose party is it right now?

ANA NAVARRO, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Uh, pick a name, take a number. Look, I think it's very hard right now to label the Republican Party. There is more than one Republican Party and we are all seeing play out in public this wrestling for the definition of the Republican Party, for the soul of the Republican Party, for who needs the Republican Party, for what the values it stands for are.

I don't think, right now, there is one answer. We are going through growing pains and it is obvious.

BERMAN: David, Donald Trump went to Washington. Who gave more yesterday, Donald Trump or Paul Ryan?

DAVID FRUM, SENIOR EDITOR, THE ATLANTIC: The Republican leadership is giving more, as obviously, they must. They have a very ugly choice. They either break with the almost certain nominee of their party, and that has tremendous effects all the way down the ballot. It has effects for congressional races. It has effects on fundraising.

So they can break with him or they can submit to him, but as we've seen through this race when you submit to Donald Trump, you do so on his terms. And even if you have what you think is a deal, it has a funny way of coming unstuck later.

He has a tremendous need to assert his own dominance over the people around him. Think of that press conference with Chris Christie. And he will be asserting his own dominance at the convention. And people like Paul Ryan, who are very shrewd players, they know what's coming.

BERMAN: At what cost, though, to Paul Ryan, now, in the Republican Party, who in your words are in the process of submitting to Donald Trump?

FRUM: At what cost to them? Cost up to November and cost after. If Donald Trump does not win November, and right now that looks pretty unlikely, he doesn't go away and the record of this campaign doesn't go away. Republicans who choose to work with him will end up bearing the consequences of working with him for a long time after November 2016.

BERMAN: It's interesting -- go ahead.

NAVARRO: You know, I disagree with my friend, David. I don't think Paul Ryan has submitted to him. I think David is right that Paul Ryan is a very shrewd player. Look, submitting to Donald Trump would have been to do what some did, which is roll over and play dead right after the day he was declared the presumptive nominee.

Paul Ryan is still holding outand if he can get Trump to moderate his tone on anything, if he can get Trump to have some consistency and values, if he can get Trump to be a better candidate, more consistent with conservative values, it's going to be better for the brand and it's going to be better for protecting some of Paul Ryan's congressional constituents.

[07:35:00] BERMAN: Is he really holding out, though? David, is he really holding out? He said he has total unity with Donald Trump. He said they are committed to the same core values. He said they will work together to win in the fall. He didn't say they'd endorse.

FRUM: Right.

BERMAN: I suppose he's holding out the "E" word but he didn't seem to be holding out much else. FRUM: Well, what happened yesterday was the meeting before the meeting. As you and Ana have said, that ultimate meeting has not happened and it may not happen until they go to the convention. But, Ryan is to chair the convention and at the convention he will be the person who will rule on any challenges to Donald Trump's authority there may be.

If there are challenges on the platform committee, if there are challenges to the credentialing of delegates. If other delegates, besides the one in California we know about, turn out to have unfortunate backgrounds and there's a motion to do something about that.

All of those will be Paul Ryan's decisions as chairman of the convention and he will, of course, have to work hand in glove with the Donald Trump campaign. He will be the nominee, almost certainly.

NAVARRO: Paul Ryan is an honest broker. He is a decent, decent human being at his core with just principles. He's a principle conservative who has been working in the trenches since he was a teenager. I think what he wants is to get Donald Trump to be more to where he is and he's doing it with a spoonful of sugar, not vinegar. It is Paul Ryan's way.

Let's remember, that when he wanted to be Speaker one of the things he did was go meet with the Freedom Caucus, for example, who had been such a thorn in the side of

John Boehner. Paul Ryan is a conciliatory figure within the party, but that doesn't mean he bends his principles.

I think he's leaving the door open. Now, I think that if we continue to see, from Donald Trump, offensive comments, incendiary controversial remarks, four-letter words, and all sorts of other things -- I think you don't get an endorsement from Paul Ryan. I think he would like to get there, Paul Ryan, but I think it's up to Donald Trump.

BERMAN: He may not be willing to bend his principles but is he willing to ignore his principles, Ana, because take Social Security, for instance, because if Paul Ryan cares about one thing, it's entitlements, right, and he wants to change and reform entitlements. He's made that abundantly clear.

The one issue where Donald Trump has been crystal clear this entire campaign is I will not change Social Security. There's not a middle ground there.

NAVARRO: You know, I actually think -- I've said this from the beginning. It's less about policy and ideology than it is about principles, and values, and tone, and the kind of campaign that he leads. Paul Ryan was Mitt Romney's vice president. They didn't agree on issues like immigration. Paul Ryan had to answer over and over again about their disagreements and the schism that there was between their two positions.

He can bridge that gap. I just think the gap he can't bridge is to have a nominee, a standard bearer for the party, who can be as offensive as Donald Trump has been for the last 10 months.

BERMAN: He said he liked Donald Trump yesterday. He said he was impressed by Donald Trump. And along those lines, David, from Lindsey Graham, who could not have said more challenging things, cruel things, mean things.

The back and forth between them the last few months has been legendary. Now, Lindsey Graham says Donald Trump called him and they had a nice conversation. He thought Donald Trump was funny. He's still not endorsing but he said it was a pleasant, cordial conversation.

NAVARRO: I sure as hell hope he didn't give him his phone number.

BERMAN: David?

FRUM: Look, people who have worked with and met Donald Trump often say that in private he can be very charming, very attentive, and a close student of the person he's with. That, actually, is not a contradiction to the other things we see in Donald Trump.

The question Paul Ryan must face, and Ana put this well. He's calling for a 69 -- or a 68-year-old man to change the tone of the past half century of his life. And probably Donald Trump, if he's got a goal in sight, can do that for a time. But the questionI have to ask is, is what we saw for the previous half century, is that the real guy? Or, is the good behavior you see for the next couple of weeks, is that the real guy?

And, what kind of president will he be? And that is the thing that Republicans are wrestling with. So many Republicans, including Lindsey Graham, have put on the record their thoughts about what kind of president Donald Trump will be. They can't unsay it. Even if they try to unsay it, it can't be unsaid. The words, once spoken, are on the record.

BERMAN: David Frum, Ana Navarro, great to have you with us. Thanks so much.

NAVARRO: Thank you.

BERMAN: Brianna --

KEILAR: George Zimmerman's attempts to auction off the gun that he used to kill Trayvon Martin so far, thwarted, but will he try again? And what does Trayvon's family think? We will speak with the family's attorney.

[07:39:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[07:43:15] CUOMO: All right, so yesterday we told you about George Zimmerman's plan to sell the gun he used to kill teenager Trayvon Martin in 2012. He was going to do it online at auction. Now, this morning one of those two online gun sellers has pulled the plug on the Zimmerman auction.

Let's get reaction from attorney Benjamin Crump. He represents the family of Trayvon Martin. Counselor, it is good to see you. Not for this reason, but I figured if this was going to be in the news we might as well use it as an opportunity to get an echo effect from you about where the family is and what they want people to remember about this situation.

But just to correct the record, there are two gun brokers online here that this guy is using. One's GunBroker and the other one is United Gun Group. GunBroker took this down. Said that they don't want to be identified with this guy. The other group, United Gun Group, said they were taking it down and now said they're not taking it down. It's still up.

What do you want people to take away from what Zimmerman is doing?

BENJAMIN CRUMP, ATTORNEY FOR TRAYVON MARTIN FAMILY: Well, like Trayvon's parents, Tracy and Sybrina, they want people to continue to focus on the mission of the Trayvon Martin Foundation, and that is ending senseless gun violence in America. And they won't comment on the actions of the person that killed their son, Trayvon, and is attempting to profit from the loss of their child.

CUOMO: What is it that you think George Zimmerman doesn't understand about this situation?

CRUMP: Well, you know, if you look at it from Tracy and Sybrina's perspective, it's like he is shooting and killing Trayvon all over again, four years later, with this attention off this gun like it's some kind of trophy. I mean, it's offensive, it's outrageous, and it's insulting.

[07:45:00] These parents are trying to get on with their lives. They are trying to do good work for the legacy of their unarmed child who was profiled, pursued, and shot in the heart as he walked home. And no matter what, it seems like he keeps reappearing to open the wounds again and again.

CUOMO: To people who say he was found not guilty, he's an American, he says he was attacked, he needs to make a living also, what do you say?

CRUMP: Chris Cuomo, I say to those people if it was O.J. Simpson auctioning off the gloves in the Nicole Brown Simpson and Ron Goldman murder, would they be making the same argument? Why is it a different standard when it's a person of color as the victim and the perpetrator is assumed to be white?

It's just we change the rules and we don't see it as offensive or we don't condone the act. It's not right in any situation, and so when people kill people they should not be able to celebrate the killing of the people or profit off of it.

CUOMO: Is it any type of silver lining effect that people do seem to be roundly condemning this offer. That when you go onto the boards, sure, some people are bidding in bad taste and trying to treat this as a joke, but that even the media in reporting this has a jaundiced aspect to it.

Do you think that seeing that what Zimmerman is doing, is being rejected, does that give hope the family and give hope to you in terms of what the takeaway is from that entire event?

CRUMP: You pray for that, Chris. You pray that all Americans come together and say we're going to let love win out over hate. And that's the big thing. We have to end this senseless gun violence so no more of our children suffer the fate of Trayvon Martin.

CUOMO: What do you say to United Gun Group, the outfit that said they were going to pull this and then didn't, and still has the auction up?

CRUMP: That is this a company that wants to put their arms around the conduct of the killer of Trayvon Martin and say that we're going to look at this gun as a trophy and as a piece of iconic American history? Is that really what they want to be known for? I think the public should be outraged, just like Trayvon's parents are outraged.

CUOMO: Benjamin Crump, thank you for being on NEW DAY. Thank you for making the case for decency on this issue this morning.

CRUMP: Thank you, Chris.

CUOMO: All right -- J.B.

BERMAN: All right, thanks Chris. So many surprises already in the 2016 race and the general election campaign really still to come. We want to ask an expert who has predicted every presidential election since 1984 -- got them all right -- why this one is so unpredictable.

[07:48:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[07:51:30] KEILAR: Our next guest is a professor by trade but he dabbles in the prediction business. Allan Lichtman likes to say that he can predict the outcome of any U.S. presidential election, and who can really argue because he has been right every time since 1984. But this year, even he is a little bit stumped right now.

So, why is 2016 so unpredictable? Let's ask Allan Lichtman. He is a distinguished professor of history at American University, and he's joining us right now. OK, I do want to ask you about 2016, but first, explain this. It's 13 keys, basically markers that you came up with, conditions that will determine if the opposing party is going to thwart the incumbent party. How did you come up with this and just give us a sense of what these markers are?

ALLAN LICHTMAN, DISTINGUISHED PROFESSION, AMERICAN UNIVERSITY, PRESIDENTIAL HISTORIAN: Yes, I actually came up with it totally, of course, by accident. Back in 1981 when I was a visiting scholar at Caltech, I met another visiting scholar, Vladimir Keilis-Borok, the world's authority from Moscow on earthquake prediction. And we decided we'd apply the methods of earthquake prediction to elections to figure out if there'd be stability. The party holding the White House keeps the White House. Or an earthquake. The party holding the White House loses.

And we looked at every election from 1860 to 1980 and we came up with 13 key factors, true/false questions, which favor the re-election of the party in power. The basic theory is the American people are pragmatic. We're not driven by the ads, the speeches, and tricks of the campaign. We give the party in power four more years if they performed well enough and the 13 keys are designed to gauge that.

If six or more go against the party in power, they lose. The party holding the White House, now the Democrats, otherwise they win. And we've since applied that, as you say, to every election ahead of time since 1984.

KEILAR: And we're looking at some of the keys now and some of these take a little bit of explaining. Like, you see party mandate and that's actually very scientific. It's that after the midterm elections you have the incumbent party that is holding more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than they did after the previous midterm election. So you look at 2014, how that compares to 2010 and it's really scientific stuff here.

In 2016, as we look towards November, you're unsure what's going to happen. Tell us why that is and tell us if you think -- when you think you'll be able to the call.

LICHTMAN: Yes, this is the most puzzling election I've yet seen, and here's why. First of all, the Democrats are now down four keys. Remember, they're the party in power. Six keys and they're out. But, two keys are still hanging balance. Key number two is the internal party contest key for the party in power.

Right now the best friend Donald Trump has ever had is Bernie Sanders. By protracting a nomination struggle that he cannot mathematically win, he has put that key in jeopardy and vastly increased the chances that Donald Trump is going to be elected president. If Sanders wants to see Trump stopped, he's got to unite behind the obvious nominee, Hillary Clinton. So, this critical contest key is right now in abeyance.

[07:55:00] The other key is key number 11, the foreign policy success key. You know, there have been a lot of initiatives on the part of the Obama administration that could be regarded as big successes. The Iran nuclear agreement, you can argue, averted a nuclear arms race in the most unstable region of the world, maybe even a nuclear war. The breakthrough with Cuba is historic but Obama hasn't sold it to the American people.

So, here's my advice to President Obama. Forget conventional campaigning. The keys say conventional campaigning has never, ever made a difference in turning a presidential election. Instead, sell your accomplishments to the American people. You're the great communicator, you can do it. Secure key number 11 for your party and Hillary Clinton will be the next president. Otherwise, it could well be Trump.

KEILAR: The last key -- and this is pretty interesting to me about how you judge this because some of these are not how I would think that they would fall. But when it comes to challenger charisma -- this idea that the challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero, or perhaps they are.

How does Donald Trump shape up with that because I think a lot of people would say this is a guy who clearly has charisma? He is attracting people. There's almost even this sort of cult of personality that that is the reason why people are drawn to him. But how does this work out when you're scoring him?

LICHTMAN: Brianna, when you buy my book and all your viewers buy my book you'll see how carefully these keys are actually defined. And while Donald Trump certainly does have a degree of charisma, the reason he doesn't win that key is his appeal is very, very limited. It's limited to a particular slice of the electorate.

He has the highest negatives going into the general election campaign of any candidate in the history of polling. Whereas, the once in a generation kinds of candidates that have been tabbed as charismatic, like Franklin Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan, have had broad charismatic rather than narrow charismatic appeal. Sorry Trump, you don't get that key.

KEILAR: It's really fascinating stuff, Dr. Lichtman. Thank you so much for it. I really geeked out your keys here. I'm going to keep monitoring them as we move towards November. Thank you so much for being with us.

LICHTMAN: Sure. Have me back when I make a final prediction.

KEILAR: Yes, we certainly will. All right, Dr. Lichtman, thank you so much.

LICHTMAN: Thank you.

KEILAR: Now, we are following a lot of news, includingwhether or not the GOP can achieve party unity, so let's get to it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RYAN: I was very encouraged.

TRUMP: I thought it was a great meeting. I think Paul felt the same way.

RYAN: We are now planting the seeds to get ourselves unified.

REINCE PRIEBUS, CHAIRMAN, REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE: It's a positive first step toward unifying our party.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This idea of the party coming together and uniting is crucial.

HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I certainly want to be delivering on the challenges that still lie ahead of us.

SANDERS: It is our campaign which will result in a Democratic victory in November.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: When Hillary wins the nomination I believe everybody will endorse her and embrace her.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is CNN breaking news.

WOLF BLITZER, CNN HOST, "THE SITUATION ROOM": Jimmy Kimmel has confirmed he is running for vice president.

JAKE TAPPER, CNN HOST, "THE LEAD WITH JAKE TAPPER": With which candidate?

JIMMY KIMMEL, TELEVISION HOST, "JIMMY KIMMEL LIVE!": Solo, or possibly with both candidates to maximize my chances.

BLITZER: Jimmy, do you think you're making a mockery of this election?

KIMMEL: I think it's too late for anyone to do that, Wolf.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANNOUNCER: This is NEW DAY with Chris Cuomo and Alisyn Camerota.

CUOMO: Good morning. Welcome to your NEW DAY. It's Friday, May 13th, 8:00 in the east. Alisyn is off. We've got Keilar on the right, we've got Berman on the left, now let's get after it.

BERMAN: And we're stuck in the middle with you.

CUOMO: Very well done, very well done. Donald Trump and Republican leaders burying the hatchet, celebrating a move toward unity. The party's presumptive nominee, House Speaker Paul Ryan, RNC chair Reince Priebus, emerging from yesterday's high-stakes, high-power summit with a commitment to work together.

No endorsement yet from Ryan, but it seems that everything for Trump and the party is moving the right way. He's even got a big donor on board.

BERMAN: As for the Democrats, congressional leaders there are hoping that tying Trump to the Republican establishment will help them and, likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, in November. But Bernie Sanders say no so fast. He says he would pose as a tougher challenger to Donald Trump and he points at the polls to prove it.

We are all over this, this morning. Let's begin with senior political reporter, Manu Raju, live in Washington. Good morning, Manu.

MANU RAJU, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL REPORTER: Hey, John. Donald Trump may not be the party establishment candidate but he is actually the last man standing so the Republican Party leadership knows that they have to put the full backing of the Republican machinery behind him if they want any chance to defeat Hillary Clinton this fall.

Now, yesterday when Donald Trump met with House Republicans and Senate Republicans, he spent a lot of time listening on concerns over immigration, to judges, to abortion. He even promised to nominate conservative justices to the Supreme Court.