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CNN Poll Shows Clinton Gain in Key Demographics; Joe Biden Weighs in on Presidential Race. Aired 6-6:30a ET

Aired October 04, 2016 - 06:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: I made my money following the law. Hillary Clinton made her money as a corrupt public official.

[05:58:09] HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: Trump was taking from America with both hands and leaving the rest of us with the bill.

TRUMP: I have legally used the tax laws to my benefit. I have brilliantly used those laws.

CLINTON: This is Trump to a "T." It's Trump first and everyone else last.

TRUMP: When people come back from war, and they see things that a lot of the folks in this room have seen many times over. And you're strong, and you can handle it. But a lot of people can't handle it.

JOE BIDEN, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: This is an ignorant man. How can you be so out-of-touch and ask to lead this country?

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ANNOUNCER: This is NEW DAY with Chris Cuomo and Alisyn Camerota.

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, everyone. Welcome to your NEW DAY. It is Tuesday, October 4, 6 a.m. in the east.

Up first, Hillary Clinton retakes the lead in a new CNN national poll, getting a boost after that first debate. Clinton has a five-point lead now over Donald Trump, 47 percent to Trump's 42 percent. That's in a four-way race.

CHRIS CUOMO, CNN ANCHOR: Also coming up, you saw the veep there. We have an exclusive interview with Joe Biden ahead of tonight's V.P. debate. He talks about Trump's taxes, the 2016 race and what he wants you to think his legacy is all about.

We're just hours away from tonight's V.P. debate, the only chance they'll have to get it on one-on-one. Only 35 days until election day. Just five days until the next presidential debate. We have it all covered for you. Let's begin with CNN political director David Chalian, live in Washington with a look inside the numbers.

What does this poll mean to you, my friend?

DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Good morning, Chris.

Well, we said last time when we were here at Labor Day and Donald Trump had a slight lead that Hillary Clinton needed to do better among independents, and she needed to get enthusiasm up among her voters. She's done both.

Take a look at independents and look at the gender split. Hillary Clinton is beating Donald Trump by 20 points among independent women. In 2012, Obama won this group by one point. So that's a pretty big deal.

Take a look at white voters when you look at their college education split. With a college degree, white voters with a college degree, Hillary Clinton's got a 13-point advantage, 50 percent to 37 percent. Obviously, without a college degree, this is the core of support for Donald Trump. It's a 21-point lead here. But in our last poll, Chris, that was a 44-point lead for Donald Trump.

African-Americans, this is also key to Hillary Clinton's coalition. Wow, 95 percent for Clinton, 5 percent for Donald Trump. All of that outreach he's been doing does not seem to be upping his number among African-Americans in our poll.

And finally, that enthusiasm gap that we were talking about, well, Hillary Clinton has narrowed the gap. Remember back in September, Donald Trump had a 12-point lead among supporters that were extremely or very enthusiastic for him. Now it's a six-point lead for Trump. Hillary Clinton's gone up four among her supporters in enthusiasm. Trump's gone down 2. This is critical for why our likely voter model now is showing Hillary Clinton with this five-point edge -- Alisyn.

CAMEROTA: OK, David, very interesting. Thanks for giving us all the headlines from the new poll.

Donald Trump, meanwhile, digging in over his taxes, saying he, quote, "brilliantly" used tax laws to possibly avoid paying income taxes for almost 20 years. Hillary Clinton slammed the billionaire, saying that does not make him a genius.

CNN's Phil Mattingly is live in Farmville, Virginia, the site of tonight's vice-presidential debate. Good morning, Phil.

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, good morning, Alisyn. It really all depends on how you want to spin it. For Donald Trump, the revelation that he may have avoided federal income tax for up to two decades is a huge positive for his campaign. Hillary Clinton, it is a hammer to bludgeon Trump's campaign. This is how they put it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: The unfairness of the tax laws is unbelievable. It's something that I've been talking about for a long time. You've heard me talking about it. Despite being a very big beneficiary, I must admit. But you're more important than my being a beneficiary, so we're going to straighten it out and make it fair for everybody.

CLINTON: Some of his supporters said, "Well, it just shows he's a genius that he didn't pay any taxes." Well, what kind of genius loses a billion dollars in the first place?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: Now, guys, how voters react to that spin, which spin they decide to believe, is coming at a very crucial moment in this race. As you guys noted, only 35 days until the election. Only five days until the next presidential debate.

But one of the interesting things behind the scenes, Trump advisers on this tax issue for the weeks leading up to that big disclosure always thought that this wasn't something that resonated with voters, wasn't something that was going to hurt them in the polls. You look at the new CNN/ORC poll, that might not be true. Eighty-six percent of voters say they believe it's a civic duty to pay taxes.

So it looks like this is something that may have legs. Obviously something we're definitely going to hear about tonight as Tim Kaine and Mike Pence square off in that vice-presidential debate -- guys.

CUOMO: Phil, there's no question that the polls show what is somewhat common sense. People think you're supposed to pay your taxes, and they want transparency when it comes to Donald Trump's taxes.

Now, one person you can count in that number is our vice president, Joe Biden. He was on fire in our interview, outraged by these latest developments from the Trump campaign with his taxes and his comments about veterans. He also had some interesting insight about what to look for tonight.

But the headline for him was the way Donald Trump sees this country's tax obligations and its veterans. Take a look.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CUOMO: When you hear about situations where Trump says he's smart for finding ways to use the tax law as is provided, it bothers you.

BIDEN: I thought it was about making sure you did your part for your country. I grew up in a house where my father used to say, and he never made any real money, and he'd say, you know, "I'm paying this or that in tax." My dad would say, "It's a small price to pay."

Since when does somebody who lives at the top of the world in a penthouse overlooking the world be in a position where he doesn't feel any obligation at all to pay any federal income tax to support the military, to support education, to support our foreign policy? Since when is that a patriotic thing to do? Can you imagine any other president, any other president to just -- ever say that and be proud of that? I can't fathom it.

CUOMO: He says the law is what it is, and you guys made the law the way it is, and he just knows how to work the system, and that's why he's the right change agent.

BIDEN: And if you notice the change agent he proposed, the change agent is what he's proposing in a tax cut would lock in all of those special interests for real-estate folks and cut their taxes even more. He's -- this is all about Trump.

The vast majority of billionaires and multimillionaires, they pay their taxes. I mean, can you imagine Warren Buffett saying this? Can you imagine Steve case saying this? Can you imagine any of these guys saying this? It's just -- it's just offensive.

[06:05:04] What does it say about all the people here? Are they all suckers for paying their taxes, because they can't hire a tax lawyer, because they couldn't make significant contributions to try to change the law to benefit themselves? Come on, man. It's just not right.

CUOMO: Trump is making headlines for saying that those who avoid PTS, posttraumatic stress, are strong. Those who succumb to it, therefore by implication, are weak. What does that statement mean to you?

BIDEN: This is an ignorant man. This guy says things he has no idea about. He's not a bad man, but his ignorance is so profound. So profound.

I have my staff contact the Defense Department every morning at 6 a.m. to tell me exactly how many troops are injured, exactly how many troops are wounded, because everyone matters. It's not 6,700 and some. It's 6,753 deaths; not 50, 53. It's 52,419 wounded.

And the number of people coming home with unseen injuries, posttraumatic stress and traumatic brain injury, is significantly higher.

What's this say about a guy who doesn't have any notion of that? Look at what these kids are going through. Look at the sacrifices they're making. And look what they go to sleep dreading.

I was asked to present a Silver Star to a young man who had jumped into a -- a young commander, jumped into a burning Humvee to pull out his buddy after an IED exploded. And the kid died. The commanding general, General Odierno, asked me to pin on a Silver Star when I was there. You know what the kid said to me? "I don't want it. I don't want it. He did not live, sir. He did not live, sir."

That kid probably goes to sleep every night with a nightmare, and this guy doesn't understand any of that. How can he not understand that? How can he be so out-of-touch? He's not a bad guy, but how can he be so out-of-touch and ask to lead this country?

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CAMEROTA: Wow. Compelling.

CUOMO: Unusually fired up, which begged a question. Wait until you hear him talking about the middle class and what he sees as the war and the manipulation of people's futures that are going on in the campaign. It begs a really obvious question. He's arguably more fired-up about these issues than Trump or Clinton. How does he feel about not being in the race? He talks about it later on.

CAMEROTA: Oh, good. I look forward to hearing his answer to that. We will have more of Chris's interview with the vice president.

Meanwhile, the vice-presidential nominees, Indiana Governor Mike Pence and Virginia Senator Tim Kaine, are going to face off tonight, 9 p.m. Eastern. CNN's debate coverage begins at 4. Tune in for that.

CUOMO: All right. Coming up next, more on the new CNN poll that has Hillary Clinton back on top. But it's a tight race. And what will Trump's efforts to turn the revelations about his taxes into a positive, what are those going to mean? Will they work? Next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[06:12:06] CAMEROTA: Hillary Clinton retaking the lead in a new CNN national poll. It has her five points ahead of Donald Trump, 47 to 42 percent, as you can see there. What is fueling that gain?

Let's bring in our panel. We have CNN political analyst David Gregory; CNN political commentary and senior contributor for "The Daily Caller," Matt Lewis; and CNN political director David Chalian. Gentlemen, great to have you here.

OK, so she has among likely voters -- let's pull this up. The change since September, David Gregory, she has gone up four points. Donald Trump has gone down three points in these latest polls, in a four-way race. Is this all to -- do we credit the debate for this?

DAVID GREGORY, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, it's the most significant event in that intervening time, so I think it shows a couple of things.

One, that she's got a little more enthusiasm among her core supporters and that she's cutting into his significant lead among men without a college degree, voters without a college degree. That's significant, because she continues to rise in those other areas among minority voters, women, particularly those with a college education, typically a Democrat -- or a Republican stronghold.

So I think these core questions, is he qualified to be president, is Trump temperamentally fit to be president? In the big event, which was the debate, the answer is that he came up wanting. And it shows that there's a trajectory for her that perhaps she can build on if she can keep it going, unless he can turn things around in this next debate, where she can perhaps grow that.

I mean, maybe five points is the high side of what the spread could actually be between them.

CAMEROTA: Do you think?

GREGORY: We'll see. CUOMO: Chalian, you are situated somewhat like Oz on this set this

morning, in the middle there as a grand figure. You have been telling me for many months this is going to come down not just to battlegrounds but certain counties within them.

Tick through the battleground states, and let's see what the numbers show you here. Let's just run through the numbers. I'll tell you which state it is. You tell me why it jumps out.

Here we are in Florida. This states have gone back and forth. Right now, she's plus five. Johnson at five, as well. What do you see?

CHALIAN: Listen, I see -- when I look at a five-point lead in Florida for Hillary Clinton, I see that as the most contested battlegrounds. The Clinton campaign is feeling most -- is feeling best about that. One, that's due to the diversity of the coalition putting together there.

But take a look at all of these. Florida, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada. Every battleground state poll we have seen now, Chris, except for Ohio, which you see right there...

CAMEROTA: Wait a minute. That's wrong. Trump is supposed to be at 47 percent. That's our typo. He's actually five points ahead of her in Ohio.

CHALIAN: You are absolutely right. That is -- of all the battleground states, we've already drifted Iowa as more lean Republican, and Ohio is moving towards that direction in terms of it looks like it may be a little elusive for Clinton.

CUOMO: you know, David, let me stop you for one second, because I need you to clarify something for the audience. We reverse the numbers. That's easy. It's 47-42 Trump. There has a new narrative, which is, you know, Ohio, it's not as much of a battleground as it used to be.

People read that as the media trying to make it less important to disadvantage Trump. What is the reality behind why Ohio now deserves some kind of different classification?

[06:15:08] CHALIAN: I don't know that it does. It is still a battleground. It's just not necessary for Hillary Clinton's path to 270 electoral votes. It is necessary for Donald Trump's path.

But Hillary Clinton, if indeed she can take Florida, if she can take Nevada, if she can take North Carolina, she's well over 270 already with adding her base states in. So it's not that it's not a battleground. It is. Obviously, we saw her there yesterday in Toledo, in the Akron/Canton area. She's still competing there, but she doesn't need Ohio in her corner in order to reach 270.

CAMEROTA: Matt, let's talk about Donald Trump's taxes. As you know, there was a revelation by "The New York Times." They found his 1995, one page from his state return, New York state return. It showed that he had such a huge loss, it is possible he did not pay federal income taxes for 18 years. So yesterday both candidates were on the stump, trying to sort of spin

this to their advantage. So listen to this moment.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP As a businessman and real-estate developer, I have legally used the tax laws to my benefit. I mean, honestly, I have brilliantly -- I have brilliantly used those laws.

CLINTON: Trump was taking from America with both hands and leaving the rest of us with the bill.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAMEROTA: OK. So obviously, their core supporters, like each of those individual messages, does that -- which argument sways people?

MATT LEWIS, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: I don't think either, to be honest with you. I know that we're obsessing over the tax issue right now. I think it's baked into the cake. I think if you -- you know, Donald Trump has been saying for at least a year now, "I'm not going to release my taxes, and I paid as little taxes as possible."

So look, I think the debate was very important. I think Donald Trump did not show that he has the temperament needed to be president. I think that has hurt him in the polls. I do not think we're going to look back and say that the tax issue mattered at all.

CUOMO: You don't think that it projects onto something else? I mean, I've never seen the tax issue as what did he pay in taxes? We know that high-income people don't pay taxes the same way. We know that you can shelter income, especially when you're in commercial development.

But David, it also goes to transparency and whether or not he is a fit change agent. The vice president said something in the interview about this. He said, "Yes, he's a real change agent." What in his tax plan would actually change what he did to the tax code? Because right now there's nothing.

DAVID GREGORY, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Two big points. Is he an out- of-touch rich guy? I don't think -- he's tapping into a different energy among voters. He could -- this could be an argument that works with more working-class voters, who say, "Look, we're being played for chumps. He didn't pay the taxes."

I think the other issue, is he as good of a businessman as he says? He lost almost a trillion dollars.

LEWIS: Yes, that's the one.

GREGORY: And I think she can use it to get under his skin.

LEWIS: Psychological warfare. That's the one place it works.

CAMEROTA: Panel, thank you very much. Stick around. We'll have more questions for you.

CUOMO: All right. We also have more of our interview with the V.P., Joe Biden. He's going to talk about what he thinks about you should be looking for tonight. Remember, he knows a little bit about a big vice-presidential debate. Remember him and Palin?

And of course, he has this fire about this race. It's a little different than what we've seen in the past. Here's another taste.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BIDEN: This man lacks any sensibilities about the American people. I just don't -- I don't get it. And he is so woefully uninformed on foreign policy, it's dangerous.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CUOMO: He has a message about the middle class -- shut up Cuomo. He has a message about the middle class and a story about his own upbringing that you're going to want to hear.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[06:22:33] CUOMO: All right. So more Joe Biden for you, because he really is kind of taking it up a notch with five weeks to election day. He told me people are really seeing the true Trump now and getting a clearer picture of Clinton, as well.

He also shared a little-known personal story of his own struggle, of his family trying to provide him with a good education and why it matters so much in America today. Here.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CUOMO: We're here in Florida. Polls are tight. There's a suggestion that it's even getting tighter. The main points of dispute are the need for change, the questions about trust, and the idea of energy. That's what Trump is saying, those are his advantages.

How do you answer those questions here in Florida?

BIDEN: I bet he couldn't carry his bag 18 holes on one of his own golf courses, speaking of energy.

But look, I think the real issue here is can you imagine a president getting up at 3:30 in the morning and tweeting vitriol? I really mean this. This -- this goes to this man lacks any sensibilities about the American people. I just don't -- I don't get it. And he is so woefully uninformed on foreign policy, he's dangerous.

CUOMO: People take it as strength, as speaking the way we do. He doesn't play those games that politicians play, and they reward him, or at least don't punish him for saying things that you find out of bounds.

BIDEN: Well, I think that they're -- they're now starting to focus, Chris. I mean, this is getting deadly earnest now. Every election, the last four presidential elections, people make up their mind later and later in the process. Now they're beginning to focus. They're getting to see who this guy really is. I predict you she will win and win clearly.

CUOMO: He says that "Whatever you've been doing hasn't worked and put us in a situation now where people are more afraid than ever." He'll put America first. It sounds good to people. They feel that America is weak and he plays on that, and it sends him to the top of the polls.

Does that need to be respected by Hillary Clinton?

BIDEN: Well, yes, but the way to respect it is speak to it, and she's doing that.

The fact of the matter is we're still by far and away the most respected country in the world. No. 2, we're in a situation where there's more American companies coming home than going abroad.

So what's happened is there's been this megaphone out there about how bad off we are and how weak we are and how weak the military is, et cetera. It's simply not true. And the fact of the matter is, now people are beginning to focus.

[06:25:08] CUOMO: We didn't see that this was going to be about finding the center of America again and this definitional proposition in this race. Do you believe anybody can fight that fight as well as you?

BIDEN: Well, I'm sure there are people. I don't know anybody who feels more passionately than I do. But I think, if there's any one thing we haven't communicated enough to the American people, is they're in trouble. They're scared. We don't speak to them enough. We don't let them know how much we respect them. We do all things that benefit them, but we don't speak to them.

CUOMO: Trump, many of them believe, speaks to them.

BIDEN: Yes, they do, but they think he speaks to them, because they haven't listened to what he's saying. Much of it has been a negative attack on Hillary and a failure to focus on what she's saying.

Our job here is to get a focus on what really matters. What's going to change the circumstance for a middle-class person? It's about being able to send your kid to a park and know they're going to come home safely. Being able to own your own home, and not having to rent it. Being able to send your kid to a local high school. If they do well, they get into college. If they get in, you can find a way to get them there.

And in addition to that, be able to take care of your geriatric parent when the other passes away and never have to be taken care of yourself by your children.

And what Hillary feels, I know, but she doesn't say enough is she understands that, when that kid doesn't get that loan to go to college, it's not just, quote, "the mind wasted." It's that father or mother who looks at this talented kid, like my dad did.

I remember I was trying to get to Amherst. I got into a lot of schools, but Amherst was the school I wanted to go to. And they gave me a grant, Division III football. And -- but it still wasn't enough. And I remember going down to see my dad, where he worked. He ran an automobile agency, didn't own it. I asked the person who ran the show, Mary, I said, "Where's dad?" She said, "Out in the lane, going into the service area." I walked out, and my dad was pacing back and forth. This is a true story, my word as a Biden. And he looked at me and said, "Oh, Joey, I'm so sorry. I am so sorry."

I said, "What's the matter, Dad?" I thought something before cell phones. I thought something happened to my family. He said, "I went to the bank today. They won't lend the money to get you to school. I'm so ashamed of myself. I'm so ashamed."

All those parents out there, all those parents out there. It's not just about the kid. It's not just about school. It's about being able to meet the expectations of their children and not having a level playing field out there. That's what this is about. I know Hillary feels that.

But every time she expresses emotion, she gets clobbered. She gets clobbered. You know, I know her. I know she cares. And it's -- I think that's sort of -- at least I think that's what has to be communicated to those folks who are looking at Trump and saying, "Well, maybe he's the answer." He doesn't deliver anything for them that's going to change their lives.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CUOMO: What did you think of that? I'd never heard him tell that story before.

CAMEROTA: That's a tug at the heartstrings story. Reminds me of my grandfather and how hard he worked, you know. I mean, Joe Biden has this way of framing things that is very digestible, you know, very sort of easy to absorb. And when he says, "We don't speak to voters enough," I mean, you have to assume that he's using the royal we; and he's referring to politicians, President Obama, Hillary Clinton. I mean, is that what he's saying?

CUOMO: I was baiting him to get into whether he regrets not running.

CAMEROTA: Yes.

CUOMO: And I know his reason for it. I was a friend of his son. I understand the impact on him and his family. I understand that he lost a piece of his soul, and I can't imagine that. But his son wanted him to run. A lot of Democrats wanted him to run.

And he can say that Hillary Clinton feels things, but people know Joe Biden feels them. Nobody has to say that about him. And that's a big difference. CAMEROTA: Well, it's a great interview. I look forward to seeing

more of it. And we'll show all of you more of it coming up.

But up next, our political panel is going to react to that Joe Biden interview, and we'll preview tonight's vice-presidential debate. What will Mike Pence and Tim Kaine do in their one-night-only face-off?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)