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New Polling Shows Increased Lead for Hillary Clinton; Vice Presidential Candidates Prepare for Debate; Interview with Kellyanne Conway. Aired 8-8:30a ET

Aired October 04, 2016 - 08:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[08:00:00] CHRIS CUOMO CNN ANCHOR: He's trying to help Clinton in that state, the polls going back and forth, very tight. He was very spicy about this election, why it matters, the case for the middle class.

Now, he also talked about VP debate, what can happen there. That's tonight. There's your debate clock, only 35 days until Election Day, only five days until the next big presidential debate.

Let's begin our coverage. We have CNN political director David Chalian live in Washington. Take us through these poll numbers. What do you see in the headline?

DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Chris, as you saw the top line from Alisyn, 47 percent to 42 percent. But take a look at where the candidates came from in our last poll. If you look here you see that Hillary Clinton grew four points, 43 percent around Labor Day to 47 percent now. Donald Trump lost three points, 45 percent to 42 percent. There's her new five-point edge right there.

What's behind it? Let's first look at independent voters. And there's a fascinating gender divide here. Among female independent voters Hillary Clinton has a 20-point lead. Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney among female independent voters by one point. Hillary Clinton significantly outperforming Obama on that score, 20 point lead among women, and Trump has a four point lead among independent men.

Let's look at white voters a how they split with their education level. This has been a telling indicator all election season. Hillary Clinton has a 13 point lead, 50 percent to 37 percent among white voters with a college degree. Mitt Romney beat Barack Obama among these voters by 14 points. Hillary Clinton has completely flipped that script.

This is the Trump base right here -- white voters with no college degree, he's got a 21 point lead, 55 percent to 34 percent. But the key thing to remember here is that in our last poll that was a 44 point le so Hillary Clinton has narrowed that gap.

African-American voters, another group that Donald Trump has been trying to go after here, not making much progress. This is Obama level support among the African-American voters, 95 percent to five percent. And very important, take a look at enthusiasm. This is what helps

drive what is a likely voter. Hillary Clinton narrowing the. In September 58 percent of Trump voters were very enthusiastic, only 46 percent of Clinton voters. That was a 12 point lead. Now it's a six point lead for Trump. His voters are still more enthusiastic, but Hillary Clinton used that debate performance to enthuse her base. Alisyn?

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: OK, David, thanks so much for all of that.

Donald Trump is digging in on his tax bombshell, saying that he, quote, "brilliantly" used tax laws to pay as little as possible. Hillary Clinton slammed the billionaire for taking from America, she says, with both hands, and she says he's anything but a genius. CNN's Phil Mattingly is live in Farmville, Virginia, the site of tonight's vice presidential debate. Give us the latest, Phil.

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Alisyn. So which is it? Is it the angle the Clinton campaign is going to repeatedly drop on the Trump campaign's head up until November 8th, or is it the opportunity for Donald Trump to take the issue of his business and spin it as a positive? Well, it appears to be both, at least according to the candidates yesterday. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The unfairness of the tax laws is unbelievable. It's something that I've been talking about for a long time. You've heard me talking about it, despite being a very big beneficiary, I must admit. But you're more important than my being a beneficiary, so we're going to straighten it out and make it fair for everybody.

HILLARY CLINTON, (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Some of his supporters say, well, it just shows he's a genius, that he didn't pay any taxes. Well, what kind of genius loses $1 billion in the first place?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: Now, guys, the question becomes who does the -- which candidate do the voters end up siding with on this issue? Now Trump campaign advisors for really the last couple of months when it came to his tax returns and his unwillingness to show them has said this isn't a big issue. This isn't something that resonates with our supporters or independents.

According to the latest CNN/ORC poll, that may not be true. And 86 percent of those surveyed believe candidates have a civic duty to pay taxes. It looks like this is something that could last out there, certainly something you're going to hear Hillary Clinton repeatedly attack Donald Trump over in the weeks ahead. The big question is if Donald Trump can spin this issue, which was a bombshell, no question about it, into his advantage as we get closer to that next debate. Chris? CUOMO: The question is how deeply under Trump's skin does it get

every time Clinton says what kind of great businessman loses $1 billion? Phil, thank you very much.

All right, so we got this opportunity to have an interview with Vice President Joe Biden. He is very exercised about the election. He was banging on what matters for the middle class, why Trump is wrong for this country, why he believes Clinton is right for the country. Here's a taste.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CUOMO: When you hear about situations where Trump says he's smart for finding ways to use the tax law as is provided, it bothers you?

[08:05:00] JOE BIDEN, (D) VICE PRESIDENT: I thought it was about making sure you did your part for your country. I grew up in a house where my father used to say -- and he never really made any real money. And they'd say, I'm paying this or that in tax money. My dad would say, it's a small price to say.

Since when does somebody who lives at the top of the world in a penthouse overlooking the world be in a position where he doesn't feel any obligation at all to pay any federal income tax to support military, to support education, to support our foreign policy? Since when is that a patriotic thing to do? Can you imagine any other president, any other president ever say that and be proud of that? I can't fathom it.

CUOMO: He says the law is what it is and you guys made the law the way it is and he knows how to work the system, and that's why he's the right change agent.

BIDEN: And if you noticed, the change agent proposed, the change agent is what he's proposing in the tax cut would lock in all of those special interests for real estate folks and cut their taxes even more. This is all about Trump. The vast majority of billionaires and multi- millionaires, they pay their taxes. I mean, can you imagine Warren Buffett saying this? Can you imagine Steve Case saying this? Can you imagine any of these guys saying this? It's just offensive. What's it say about all the people here, are they all suckers for paying their taxes because they can't hire a tax lawyer, because they couldn't make significant contributions to try to change the law to benefit themselves? Come on, man. It's just not right.

CUOMO: Trump is making headlines for saying that those who avoid PTS, post-traumatic stress, are strong. Those who succumb to it therefore by implication are weak. What does that statement mean to you?

BIDEN: This is an ignorant man. This guy says things he has no idea about. He's not a bad man, but his ignorance is so profound, so profound. I had my staff contact the Defense Department every morning at 6:00 to tell me exactly how many troops are injured, exactly how many troops are wounded, because everyone matters. It's not 6,700 some. It's 6,753 death. Not 50, 53. It's 52,419 wounded. And the number of people wounded coming home with unseen injuries,

post-traumatic stress and traumatic brain injury, is significantly higher. What's this say about a guy who doesn't have any notion of that? Look at what these kids are going through. Look at the sacrifices they're making. And look what they go to sleep dreading.

I was asked to present a Silver Star to a young man who had jumped into -- a young commander who jumped into a burning Humvee to pull out his buddy after and IED exploded and the kid died. The commanding general asked me to pin on a Silver Star while I was there. You know what the kid said to me? I don't want it. I don't want it. He did not live, sir. He did not live, sir. That kid probably goes to sleep every night with a nightmare. And this guy doesn't understand any of that? How can he not understand that? How can he be so out of touch? He's not a bad guy, but how can he be so out of touch and ask to lead this country?

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CAMEROTA: Wow, great interview there. We will show more of it as well tonight. Senator Tim Kaine and Governor Mike Pence will face off in the first and only vice presidential debate. What at stake when they take the stage at Longwood University? CNN's Sunlen Serfaty is live in Farmville, Virginia for us. Good morning, Sunlen.

SUNLEN SERFATY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Alisyn. Both candidates here, they seem to have been taking a much more consistent, much disciplined approach as they prepare for tonight's debate. And certainly that's notable for Mike Pence who, contrary to his own running mate Donald Trump at the top of the ticket, really seems to have engaged in a traditional, more formal debate prep.

We know that both candidates, they have been studying up, hitting the books. They've both been running through full-fledged mock debates using stand-ins for the other opponent. We know that team Pence certainly going into tonight top on their mind is do they have to play cleanup? No doubt Mike Pence will be facing many questions over Donald Trump's tax returns.

Meantime team Kaine hoping to cash in potentially a little home field advantage here in Virginia tonight. We know that they are looking to draw some ideological contrasts with Mike Pence up there on stage. But Alisyn, of course, each and every moment so important for both men tonight being this is their first and only debate. Alisyn?

CAMEROTA: OK, Sunlen, thanks so much for the preview there. We'll all be watching obviously very closely.

We're joined now by Brian Fallen, press secretary for Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign. Good morning, Brian.

BRIAN FALLON, PRESS SECRETARY, CLINTON CAMPAIGN: Good morning. Great to be with you.

CAMEROTA: OK, so, Hillary Clinton has been talking about Donald Trump's taxes ever since "The New York Times" had that revelation on Saturday night that it was possible that he has not paid federal income taxes for the past 18 years.

[08:10:03] The problem, Brian, is that many voters thinks that this shows Donald Trump's his strength, it shows him being crafty, it shows his business acumen. We've talked to a lot of voters this morning as well as over the weekend who don't see this as a negative. Let me play some of their sound for you.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TERRY JONES, RETIRED ELECTRICAL CONTRACTOR: I don't know anybody that checks the box under tax returns and says I want to pay twice as much as I have to. So I don't have a problem with it if it was done legally. He's been audited every year apparently forever. I don't have a problem with it.

JONI BROWN, HOUSEWIFE: To me it doesn't matter what his tax returns show. It's more about what kind of person he is. Politicians are more crooked than businessmen to me.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CAMEROTA: So, Brian, you heard them there. They don't have a problem with it. How do you know that talking about this and the taxes isn't actually working for Trump?

FALLON: Well, look, Alisyn, I think if we've seen one thing over the course of this campaign is that a lot of Donald Trump supporters are going to continue to support him no matter what he says.

But I think with those critical persuadable voters that remain that both campaigns are fighting over, I think they're going to be very troubled by what we learned over the weekend. First of all, we saw the scale of business failures that Donald Trump endured in the 1990s, something that he's clearly ashamed of. And it's probably one of the big reasons why he's been keeping his tax return a secret.

But more important than that, he was able to leverage those huge losses, $1 billion almost in one single year, into a huge mother of all tax write-offs. And I think if you look at all the ordinary people that were put out of work with those business failures that Trump had in the early 1990s, all those contractors that he left holding the bag, to see him turn around and be able to turn that into an opportunity for him, I think it just makes clear that he's the embodiment of the very rigged system that he says he's going to fix. It's just another indication that heads Donald Trump wins, tails he still wins.

And so he says he's going to fix this corrupt system, but there's actually no sign of that. The tax proposals he's putting forward would actually make this worse and further stacked in favor of people like Donald Trump. He wants to repeal, for instance, the estate tax which would provide his family with up to another $4 billion in tax savings. So I think this is going to be highly troubling to people the more they learn about it.

CAMEROTA: Brian, let's talk about some vulnerabilities for Hillary Clinton, because there is some new CNN polling that does show some weak spots. Let's look at the Ohio poll, for instance. Donald Trump there is getting 47 percent to Hillary Clinton's 42 percent. Are you confident, Brian, that Hillary Clinton can win without Ohio?

FALLON: Well, look, I think that there were a bunch of state polls that came out yesterday. A lot of them had Hillary Clinton ahead, but in all of them they're tight including Ohio. Ohio we're very confident in the ground game we built there. We have more than 50 offices open. She was just there yesterday campaigning in Akron and Toledo.

And I think that actually in the last week Donald Trump has given us more to talk about in terms of who truly represents working class voters in states like Ohio. So not only did you learn over the weekend that Donald Trump potentially went 18 years without paying any income taxes, contributing nothing to our first responders, to our military, to our schools, but we also learned yesterday from a new report from "Newsweek" that in an act of utter hypocrisy his most recent real estate developments have been relying on Chinese made steel instead of U.S. steel. This is a guy that howls and complains about all of the jobs that we're losing, manufacturing jobs to China. He says he's going to undo that.

And just like he outsources the production of his clothing lines we're also learning that he is sucker-punching U.S. manufacturing by going to China for his goods and materials that go into his construction projects. So I think that that is something that is going to resound in Ohio. If you talk to somebody like Senator Sherrod Brown, they campaign on these issues. I think Rob Portman would have a hard time defending Donald Trump's outsourcing practices.

CAMEROTA: And speaking of working class voters, let's look at another possible point of vulnerability for Secretary Clinton because our new poll shows that she is struggling with the non-college graduated white voters. She gets 37 -- let me look at this. She gets -- it's on the screen. She gets 34 percent to his 55 percent. So, Brian, why don't you think that she is speaking a message that is more -- that would resonate with them more effectively?

FALLON: Well, there's no question that that voting group is one of the last bastions of support Donald Trump. I think that if you look at the other parts of that poll that you just showed on the screen, Hillary Clinton is outperforming Barack Obama and is outperforming at a historic level with white voters when it comes to those with college degrees.

[08:15:01] But I agree that we are fighting over -- Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are fighting over those voters that you're talking about.

That's why she was in Ohio yesterday talking about these issues. I think at the end of the day, when voters compare Hillary Clinton's plans, which include wanting to raise the minimum wage. Donald Trump is against that. Wanting to make investments in infrastructure, wanting to actually deal with this problem of outsourcing as opposed to Donald Trump who relies on Chinese made steel and aluminum for his projects, I think they're going to find that Hillary Clinton is the one that sides with them and stands up for them, not Donald Trump.

We're learning more and more about his business practices. And the more we learn, the more it's clear that he doesn't stand with the working class voters.

CAMEROTA: Brian Fallon, spokesperson for Hillary for America -- thanks so much for being with us.

FALLON: Thank you, Alisyn.

All right. Meanwhile, the vice presidential nominees, Indiana Governor Mike Pence and Virginia Senator Tim Kaine will face off tonight, 9:00 p.m. Eastern. CNN's debate coverage begins at 4:00.

CUOMO: All right. The Trump campaign coming off a tough week feuding with a former beauty queen, going after Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton's fidelity in their marriage. Now defending "The New York Times" tax bombshell. How does it recover? Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway joins us next, live.

Good to see you, Kellyanne.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CUOMO: All right, we've got a new CNN/ORC poll. You've got Hillary Clinton retaking the lead after the first presidential debate. Clinton has a five point advantage over Trump. The numbers out this morning as the Trump campaign continues to grapple with a tough week with this "New York Times" tax headline.

Let's discuss a bunch of different facets of the campaign with Trump's campaign manager Kellyanne Conway.

[08:20:04] Always good to have you on the show.

KELLYANNE CONWAY, TRUMP CAMPAIGN MANAGER: Hi, Chris.

CUOMO: Let's talk about you for a second. I saw you on "The View" the other day, my old home, and they were asking you about the dynamic with you and Trump and how it works. And Machado came up, the beauty queen. And you said, you know, I scolded Trump for some of those comments. I thought that was an interesting choice of words because, one, no one scolds Donald Trump.

CONWAY: I didn't use that word. They used that word in their headline.

CUOMO: So they used it as a representation?

CONWAY: They did. They did.

CUOMO: Did you have a moment with him where --

CONWAY: I never used that word.

Look, I think Donald Trump is the best when he sticks to the issues, because the issue set is what favors him. If that weren't true, then Hillary Clinton would be talking about the issues. You have her husband, President Bill Clinton, on the stump just yesterday saying Obamacare is a disaster. It hurts small businesses. It hasn't been organized well. It's not doing well. And this morning's "New York Times" agrees with that, a pro-Clinton paper.

CUOMO: All right, hold on a second. I'll talk about that. I just want to get -- I just want to talk -- get some insight into the dynamic. If you don't like something that he says, or if he is saying something, what is the dynamic in terms of shaping a candidate, like you do with any of your other clients when you're working on the pollster side where you go to them and say, this works, this doesn't, here's what I would do, here's what -- can you do that with Trump?

CONWAY: Absolutely. And I'm heard and I'm listened to and I'm respected by him enormously. And he's the candidate. He will make his own decisions and the campaign will continue in his own words according to what he thinks is most important. But he takes my counsel and other people's counsel very seriously. We have a fabulous relationship.

I can see why, Chris, he has employed thousands of women over the years and promoted women to some of the highest positions in the Trump corporation. I mean, I can walk into Trump Tower right now and introduce you to women who have worked for him for years, if not decades, who thinks that he just draws out of them talents that they didn't -- skill sets they didn't know that they had. He's very gracious to them. He's very generous. This is how I find him to be as a client and as a boss.

CUOMO: So these other incidents where he's said things about women that keep being brought up as a reflection of his poor character with him, what do you see those as, outliers, anomalies, context?

CONWAY: I do. I see them as cherry picked and I -- I think they're very unfortunate because they don't show you the measure of the man. And, again, I don't know if it's working for Hillary Clinton, and here's why. In your new CNN poll, she has 53 percent among women. Fifty-three percent. She has tried everything she can to try to turn women her way and away from her opponent and it's not --

CUOMO: A 20 point lead.

CONWAY: Well, it's not where -- it's not quite that, but it's not working. In other words, President Obama carried women by double digits both times. But she's running as the first female president and she's not owning that with America's female voters. What's holding them back?

I think what's holding them back is that, according to your earlier polls, I see you don't ask the questions any more, but people don't trust her. They don't think she's honest. They don't much like her. They don't appreciate the fact that she breathes the verified (ph) air and they don't. I mean she's out there attacking Donald Trump. What happened to that pivot we were promised by Jen Palmieri a couple of weeks ago? We're going to switch to an aspirational, uplifting, optimistic campaign. Where in the world is that? In her lock box.

CUOMO: But both campaigns bash the other side. There's a reason that both of these candidates are in the gutter with their likability numbers.

CONWAY: But they're different reasons, by the way.

CUOMO: We've never seen anything like it.

CONWAY: For different reasons.

CUOMO: Let's do a couple of the -- tick through a couple of the states at play. The tax thing. I agree with you, when it came out of the box, you follow the law when you're trying to pay taxes. I have an accountant. You have an accountant. There is -- there is or should be no suggestion that Donald Trump did anything illegal absent what we learned from the audit, which is basically up to him.

The main hammer that you're getting hit with on this is, how great a businessman can you be if you lost $1 billion. "The New York Times" this morning says his loss that he recorded, all by itself, Donald Trump, represented 2 percent of all losses recorded for the entire industry. It seems to be like he distinguished himself by screwing up, not by being great. What's the rebuttal?

CONWAY: He's distinguished himself by being great before that and since. I mean he is the original art of the comeback, as he wrote and as he said yesterday in Pueblo, Colorado, with an overflow crowd of thousands and thousands, Chris, he thinks this country needs a comeback. And many Americans agreed with him.

We can do better than the wage stagnation. We can do better than millions of women in poverty, millions of women without health insurance. Why doesn't anybody ask Hillary Clinton? You've been there for 30 years and you're running as the first female president. How can you look at these women, you and your husband are worth a quarter of a billion dollars, or you earned that much anyway, and women are struggling and yet, you know, he's the one talking about the comeback.

It depends what he did after that. So, as you say, it's perfectly legal. And let's review here. It's a prevision that's been around since 1918. It's 100 years old. I didn't see President Obama say -- beat his chest and say, we need to get rid of this provision, especially when he had Democrats in the House and Senate for two years when he first got there. This has not been a priority for them.

CUOMO: It hasn't been changed. It's been reinforced.

CONWAY: That's right.

CUOMO: It's been found different ways threaded through. Trump says --

CONWAY: And there's a reason for that, though, may I. There's a reason for that. It's because this is America and we appreciate business owners and entrepreneurs and those who take risks.

And in the case of Mr. Trump, and he brilliantly after that he -- he -- he absorbed those losses. By the way, it's a loss. He absorbed those losses going forward.

And what did he do? He invested in New York when very few would not.

[08:25:01] CUOMO: Right.

CONWAY: He created thousands of jobs. You look around the city, and there are many Trump buildings where people -- people live and people are in hotels and people eat in restaurants. In other words, he invested that. It's a great American success story.

CUOMO: But one of the things that I think that is going to deserve more attention is, he says I get that the system is rigged in favor of people like me. I will change it. His current tax plan does nothing to disallow any of the things that he does with carry forward loss, net operating losses or the ability to put away money and self-fund retirement, you know, or capital gains. Not in any material way.

Will he do that? Will he make good on his promise to change the system so that Trump can't keep doing this?

CONWAY: Well -- well, he may -- first of all, as I just said, President Obama didn't even have it as a priority. I don't hear Hillary Clinton out there talking about it.

CUOMO: No, but Trump said, the reason you should pick me is I know the system. I'm the one to fix it.

CONWAY: But he's had a great tax plan that we talked about on your show.

CUOMO: But there's nothing in the tax plan that will fix what he does with net operating losses. Why not? This is his opportunity.

CONWAY: Because it's been around for -- it's been around for 100 years and it benefits many --

CUOMO: But he says it's not right.

CONWAY: No, no. What he said was, he knows how to leverage the tax system in a way that allowed him to absorb those losses in one year, 21 years ago. And it, moving forward, create thousands of jobs, reinvest and have an amazing comeback. I mean the man is an American success story and I think that's why he's in the hunt in these polls. I think it's why he's going to win.

This is a very simple race. It's past versus future. It's successful business man versus typical politician. It's disruptive outsider versus consummate insider. It's change Washington versus benefit from Washington. That's the way people see this race.

And, look, his American success story was also shown on "The Apprentice," which was an incredibly popular show, the number one show when it was, you know, back in its heyday when it was first on the air, and people loved that. They loved that whole idea. "Shark Tank" is popular. They love the whole idea of, you can come up with an idea in this country and you can fail and still pick yourself back up and keep going. People appreciate that.

But, look, "The New York Times," this morning, Chris, says that in addition to this provision being 100 years old and other tax plans not saying they would eliminate it, in the year of 1995 where Mr. Trump absorbed this loss and then carried it forward, 500,000 people in this country did the same thing. People act like it was the Trump provision. It wasn't.

CUOMO: He represented -- because he represented 2 percent of the overall amount. I mean it's massive. We have never seen someone take the loss that he did. He had a lot of advantages.

CONWAY: We've never seen anyone like Donald Trump --

CUOMO: Well, that is true. He is unique. You know, we'll end this interview on that. There's no question that he's a unique individual.

It will be interesting, though, Kellyanne, to see if he makes good on his promise to make the system better because of how he understands it.

CONWAY: He'll make it better. He goes from seven brackets to three brackets. He has a simplified system.

CUOMO: But it doesn't change this stuff, that's why I bring it up.

CONWAY: And, by the way, he wants people to stop paying good money for -- for having to prepare their own taxes. In other words, simplify it in a way that Americans are already hit with this large tax bill under Obama and Clinton, don't have to turn around and pay a tax preparer just to --

CUOMO: Nobody will argue with simpler taxes.

CONWAY: Yay.

CUOMO: Kellyanne Fitzpatrick --

CONWAY: Thank you.

CUOMO: Oh, Kellyanne Fitzpatrick. That's how long we've known each other.

Kellyanne Conway, great to have you on NEW DAY, as always.

CUOMO: My pleasure. Thank you. Thank you.

Alisyn, dated myself.

CAMEROTA: No one else will date you.

Meanwhile, Vice President Joe Biden offering his candid take on Donald Trump and a 2016 race. Wait until you hear what he has to say. That's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)