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Battle to Retake Mosul Begins; Trump Talks Rigged Election; Trump Ramps Up Attacks on the Media. Aired 8:30-9a ET

Aired October 17, 2016 - 08:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[08:30:00] KIMBERLY DOZIER, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: Daesh, ISIS, doesn't want them to escape because as in other cities that they've held, they're likely going to use these civilians like human shields.

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: Gosh.

Paul, why is Mosul so important?

PAUL CRUICKSHANK, CNN TERRORISM ANALYST: It's absolutely key to their pretensions of being a state, a so called caliphate. That's key to their legitimacy in the eyes of their followers all around the world. So if they lose Mosul, they're likely to be significantly deflated as a terrorist group, an entity controlling territory in Iraq and Syria, but also as a terrorist threat against the west in the medium to long term.

But, of course, in the short term, there's real concern there could be a surge in ISIS terrorism against the west, notably against Europe because their external operations unit is based in Raqqa, not in Mosul, so they're not likely to see their operations disrupted by this offensive.

CAMEROTA: Kimberly, as we've all learned, there's no way of predicting, obviously, what will happen once the, you know, bullets start flying, and who's going to win. But, in terms of Mosul, how difficult do people think it will be to retake that city?

DOZIER: It will probably take weeks, maybe months, because the ISIS fighters have known for some time that this offensive was headed their way. So they've had time to build car bombs, turn houses into explosive-laden IEDs. When troops enter them, they can blow them up or can be triggered to blow up. They've dug in trenches. They've dug tunnels. So they're going to make this as hard as possible for Iraqi and coalition forces to take. And that means possibly a lot of civilian casualties. Also, a great rush of people to escape the city.

But you can see why they're fighting so hard. This is the second largest city in Iraq. When it falls, and it's probably going to fall by the end of the year as coalition forces are able to encircle it and cut off all supplies, that's going to lead ISIS with basically Raqqa as its capital inside Syria and the last holdout. So a big win for the Obama administration and the Iraqi administration, but Syria still looking rather grim.

CAMEROTA: Absolutely.

So, Paul, if it goes the way the coalition forces hope, and if they're able to retake Mosul away from ISIS, then what? I mean we've talked this morning already with the Pentagon about the day after strategy and the Pentagon has said, don't worry, we've thought of this, we know that there's lots of warring faction there who would all want to move in on Mosul, but it's really going to be up to the Iraqi people to decide what happens.

CRUICKSHANK: It's going to be extraordinarily difficult to secure and stabilize Mosul. ISIS is likely to pivot towards guerrilla warfare, towards terrorism. They're likely to target Shia across the country in Iraq to try and blow the country up into another civil war which they'll hope to take advantage of.

This does not end even if they manage to take back Mosul. It's going to be very, very difficult. There's really no political plan for that region. There are different factions within Iraq with very, very different agendas for the future of Iraq, notably the Kurds, and then Baghdad, the Iraqi army is a Shia dominated institution, 75 percent Shia. They're going into a majority Sunni-Arab town up to 90 percent of the population Sunni Arabs. So there's a lot of potential for sectarian bloodshed, even between some of the factions fighting ISIS in the months ahead.

But this may take months before they're able to take back the city. It may be days by the time they get to the outskirts. But very fierce fighting expected with ISIS. Snipers lying in wait. They've built tunnels. They've got booby traps, IEDs and so on and so forth. This could be the most fierce fighting we've seen by far in the war against ISIS.

CAMEROTA: And, Kimberly, beyond all of those complications that Paul just laid out, of course there's the humanitarian crisis that's unfolding.

DOZIER: And the U.N. and other humanitarian bodies have tried to prepare for this. They've prepared for a flood of say 400,000 people. That's one of the estimates. But it could be a much larger amount of people displaced. And, in the past, they've had difficulties getting enough water and food to the area. They've also had difficulty with Iraqi forces unfairly, they thought, vetting people who were trying to leave.

Now, the Iraqi army has said it would give amnesty to ISIS fighters, but as people leave, they're probably going to be questioned, and we don't know how many jailed. The Iraqi government is trying to look like the merciful force here, but they also don't want to let any senior ISIS fighters escape in the process.

CAMEROTA: Oh, my gosh. Kimberly Dozier, Paul Cruickshank, thank you for spelling out just how complicated all of this is. Thanks for being here.

Let's get to Chris. [08:34:47] CHRIS CUOMO, CNN ANCHOR: Donald Trump and his supporters are pushing unsubstantiated claims that the election will be rigged. Will this affect voters' trust of the system? We get the bottom line from our political director, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CUOMO: If Trump loses, that's because the election was rigged. That's what he seems to be suggesting, Donald Trump himself, and his supporters, that the election's rigged. But where's the proof? Just moments ago, Trump himself tweeted, quote, "of course there's large- scale voter fraud happening on and before Election Day. Why do Republican leaders deny what is going on? So naive!" So, what of the basis of these claims and how can this affect voters?

[08:40:03] Let's get "The Bottom Line" from CNN political director David Chalian.

He has no proof. Congressman Steve King has no proof. Are there problems with the system? Of course there are. Is there any proof of an election ever being changed by fraud no matter who you look at and you can Google to your heart's content, there is zero. Steve King brought up Florida as an example. Doesn't really go anywhere. We have a little piece of sound from that interview.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. STEVE KING (R), ENDORSED DONALD TRUMP: I would look back at the 2000 election and the fiasco in Florida and the 537 votes that decided the presidency and - and say that if Al Gore had not accepted the decision of the Supreme Court, we would have had discredited elections.

I point to Virginia and see where Terry McAuliffe has essentially, by executive edict, legalized tens of thousands of felons that by law can't be allowed to vote in Virginia. There's piece after piece of this around this country that I say don't follow the law and do lean this thing in the wrong direction. We should look at those. We should - we should abide by the law. We should be squared away with that and we should make sure that we don't have illegals voting or registered.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CUOMO: Fact, what they do in Virginia with former convicts, many states do. The 538 votes in Florida, there was never any proof of fraud. And, for him to say the Democrats rig it, that was no Democrat system down there in what happened in Florida. Steve King said, I don't want to undermine people's confidence in the system. But, and then he said all that stuff.

DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Well, listen, I think that the - the best example from Florida is to look at Al Gore's concession speech after the Supreme Court ruling, because that was a reaffirmation of the fundamental small "d" democratic principle that our whole system thrives on, right, which is that when somebody wins, the losers of the election believe that to be the legitimate winner. Al Gore expressed his opposition to that Supreme Court ruling, but accepted the results. That was a really important signal to his supporters. That's why I think what Donald Trump is going is so potentially dangerous because what is going to happen if indeed he loses this election and his supporters do not believe that that is a legitimate loss?

CAMEROTA: Well, we've already heard from some of them. I mean we heard from one of them at a Trump rally on Thursday who said, I'm going to take her out. And the reporter said, that sounds like a threat. And he said, take it however you want, I'm a patriot. I mean we pride ourselves on the peaceful transfer of power. That is one of our sterling traditions in this country. And when he says there's large scale voter fraud by any definition, yes, there's voter fraud. There are isolated incidents. Everybody knows them. There's been vast studies that have looked for decades and occasionally something sneaks through, but there's not large-scale voter fraud.

CHALIAN: Not large-scale voter fraud. And, in fact, and, yes, you're right, there is voter fraud. We've seen it. We've seen dead people vote, like on the rolls. Like, that exists. But the whole reason the system has been able to work is because actually of how decentralized our system is. It's all these localities, counties, precinct levels -

CAMEROTA: Bipartisan.

CHALIAN: Bipartisan, no doubt, or non-partisan. But - but across the country, it's so decentralized to - to avoid large-scale voter fraud. That's actually how it's designed.

CUOMO: It's one of the reasons that it's so antiquated and we don't have voting online yet because it's -

CHALIAN: Which is frustrating, but, yes.

CUOMO: Right, it's so decentralized.

All right, so the polls. We have the poll of poll out this morning. The aggregate sampling. The average of the last four biggest polls and you see 47-39. What do you think's driving it?

CHALIAN: Well, what's driving it is, is, obviously, Donald Trump has suffered a really bad couple weeks here, a 10 day stretch now. There's no doubt about that. And - but if you look, and this is why I think the poll of polls, guys, is so important to look at because we've seen just yesterday the NBC/"Wall Street Journal" poll and "The Washington Post"/ABC poll, very different results.

CUOMO: Really different.

CHALIAN: An 11 point lead in NBC/"Wall Street Journal," a four point lead for Hillary Clinton all among likely voters. That's why I don't think you can ever look at just one poll and hang your hat on it. The poll of polls, which averages all the recent polls, gives you a sense of where the race is overall, and that's why I think it's important we do that. CAMEROTA: Let's look at the phenomenon known as the "Access Hollywood"

effect, because that has also been captured now in polls about how whether or not what they heard on that audio tape of Donald Trump saying what he likes to do to women, if that changes how they will vote. Voting for Trump after the "Access Hollywood" tape, more likely 1 percent, hmm, less likely, 35 percent, no difference at all, 64 percent.

CHALIAN: So I look at that and I say, OK, damaging, but not devastating perhaps. And when you're the Trump campaign and you look at 64 percent no difference, now, these are die-hard partisan who have already made up their mind. It's not about -

CUOMO: Eighty-eight percent it was reported of people say that they are locked into their choice.

CHALIAN: Exactly. So people are locked in. There's a very narrow persuadable universe. But that works to Trump's benefit here. Listen, what happens is, as soon as something like that happened, he loses Republicans. Not die-hard Trump Republicans, but Republicans who wear the Republican jersey no matter what every four years may not be so comfortable with him but are putting that jersey on. They don't like Hillary Clinton. They go away first. And then as he rehabilitates or is able to take the fight to Hillary Clinton, the Republicans come back. And that - if he's just losing Republicans and bringing Republicans back, he's still not adding what he needs to add.

[08:45:10] CUOMO: The biggest thing you saw in the polls?

CHALIAN: Well, in the NBC/"Wall Street Journal" poll, that 20-point lead for Hillary Clinton among women voters, that's huge. Barack Obama won female voters in 2012 by 11 points. So that's a really important statistic.

CAMEROTA: David Chalian, thank you for "The Bottom Line." It's great to have you.

CHALIAN: Thank you.

CAMEROTA: All right, Donald Trump is ramping up his attacks on the media. He, of course, is warning of this rigged election because of the media. Even tweeting that "SNL" should be canceled.

CUOMO: What?

CAMEROTA: Yes. We're going to break it down with hour media experts, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CAMEROTA: In speech, tweets and interviews, Donald Trump, and his representatives, are claiming the media is an extension of the Clinton campaign and rigging the election for the Democratic nominee. Here is Newt Gingrich on that.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) NEWT GINGRICH (R), FORMER SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE: This is a coup d'etat. He said 14 million citizens in private ballots picked Donald Trump. 20 TV executives have decided to destroy him. I think that without the unending one-sided assault on the news media, Trump would be beating Hillary by 15 points.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAMEROTA: Let's bring in our CNN senior media correspondent and host of CNN's "Reliable Sources," Brian Stelter, and contributing editor at "Vanity Fair" and author of "War at The Wall Street Journal," Sara Ellison.

[08:50:01] Great to have both of you here.

BRIAN STELTER, CNN SENIOR MEDIA CORRESPONDENT: Thank you.

CAMEROTA: Who are these 20 top media executives who have declared a war on Donald Trump?

STELTER: If I knew, I promise I would tell you. It's hard to disprove a negative, of course, when Trump claims there's this massive conspiracy, but the reality is, even if the media wanted to all get into cahoots together, it's not possible. Journalists are competitive and the media is market driven. This doesn't even pass the smell test. But it does smell of desperation on the part of Donald Trump. Everything we're seeing from the past few days and weeks is desperation. Talking about a rigged election. Claiming widespread voter fraud. All of this is coming from a man who knows he's losing.

CUOMO: And people who know him, some of them have kind of had this prediction for some time, that if it's not going his way, he's going to go down in the ugliest way possible. One of the things that's ignored by Newt Gingrich and others is they're ignoring all these accusers who have come out. What would it mean if the media ignored these women who came out because - without basis, because we didn't want to interrupt the election? Then what would the story be?

SARA ELLISON, CONTRIBUTING EDITOR, "VANITY FAIR": Well, that would be a huge scandal as well.

CAMEROTA: Right?

ELLISON: I mean, obviously, this is something - I think that the idea - Trump has always been somebody who's been a winner. He's talked about himself as a winner and he's talked about himself as, you know, when he was up in the polls, that's all he wanted to talk about. So in order - when the polls go against him, then he does have to have this sort of excuse. And of course you couldn't not - these women who are coming forward are not being unearthed by the Hillary Clinton campaign. Like it just doesn't - it doesn't work that way. If -

CAMEROTA: Right, they don't know each other. They didn't know the campaign.

CUOMO: You would have known them a lot sooner. ELLISON: Right, but this - there would be no reason -

CUOMO: If she had to dig them up.

ELLISON: I mean so this is the - the reason - things aren't as coordinated. I just had a conversation with someone who said, well, "The Washington Post" reporting on Trump has been - been really great and quite aggressive and that's because Jeff Bezos has a real vendetta against Donald Trump, which, to my understanding, is just not true, but Trump does like to talk about whether it's Carlos Slim at "The New York Times," who owns "The New York Times" or has a large take in "The New York Times," or Jeff Bezos, which owns - who owns "The Washington Post." I mean it is like six oligarchs working together to try to kind of - to sway the election.

CAMEROTA: Yes.

ELLISON: Which brings me to my point that Trump really is talking like a strongman in a kind of Banana Republic. I mean he's somebody who, when he gets angry at something like the "Saturday Night Live" skits.

CUOMO: So are we going to see Trump TV? Is that what the culmination will be?

STELTER: Trump TV.

CUOMO: Assuming he is now president of the United States, there is now a little smoke there of that suggestion.

STELTER: There is. You know, Sara reported months ago I think that there was talk within Trump's inner circle about this possibility.

ELLISON: Right.

STELTER: This morning there's a Financial Times report that Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law, actually made a phone call to an investment banker to have a conversation about this possibility. It does make a lot of sense. It's a logical next step for Trump if he loses. It's also, though, very, very hard to launch a television network or a streaming service.

ELLISON: Right.

CAMEROTA: And, Sara, what did you - what's your reporting on how serious he is about Trump TV?

ELLISON: Well, I think that he - I mean I think that it's sort of - my reporting a while ago was that he had identified that he has this huge audience of supporters that no one else had identified. Not even Fox News had figured it out. So they had figured something out and he was boosting the ratings of CNN and Fox and ABC and why weren't they monetizing any of that themselves. Well, as everybody who works for these places knows, it's really hard to actually make money in television or in, you know, any kind of like an over-the-top streaming service. And so I think - I mean he obviously has been sort of busy trying to be elected president. So that might be one of the reasons why we haven't really seen anything on this front. But I also think the closer you get to actually executing on something like this, the more the reality of it is daunting. Even Oprah Winfrey didn't succeed.

STELTER: And the -

CUOMO: So add it to the list -

CAMEROTA: It was OWN (INAUDIBLE).

ELLISON: It was very, very hard.

CAMEROTA: Very hard, yes.

CUOMO: Add - it still is.

STELTER: Right.

CUOMO: Add it to the list of people who have to go, part of the rigging, "SNL." They had a clip this weekend. Of course they're all over Trump. Watch this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Please help us welcome the candidates, Republican nominee, Donald Trump. And can we say this yet?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's probably fine.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: President Hillary Clinton.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Martha, she is trying to silence these women, but they need to be respected. They need their voices heard.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: What about all the women accusing you of sexual assault?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: They need to shut the hell up.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAMEROTA: Now, he used to love "SNL" when he was a guest on "SNL" and (INAUDIBLE) -

CUOMO: Rumor is he was supposed to be on this coming weekend.

CAMEROTA: Oh.

CUOMO: I wonder if that's going to happen now?

STELTER: Well, there's an episode - a new episode this weekend and there's an episode right before Election Day.

CUOMO: He says it should be taken off the air, "SNL." That's it's not profitable.

STELTER: I'm pretty sure - CUOMO: Nobody's watching it. It's not funny.

ELLISON: I mean this is the - this is sort of a side point, but someone has made the point that Trump needs a thesaurus to expand on the - on the like insults that he's throwing at various people. But I do think that of course "SNL," no politician loves the way that they're mocked on "SNL." But one thing that Hillary Clinton has actually learned how to do is laugh at herself a little bit. And she got it just as good in this - in this skit. I mean the moment where she was sort of - they were making fun of how she had to walk towards the audience member who was asking her a question.

[08:55:03] CAMEROTA: Right. Left, right.

ELLISON: Left, right, left, right. I mean -

CAMEROTA: And she doesn't know her granddaughter's name, Chelsea junior.

ELLISON: Right. Chelsea junior. I mean that's -

STELTER: Fair and balanced comedy, right? That's right.

CAMEROTA: Thank you. Great to see you guys. Thanks so much for being here.

STELTER: Thanks.

CUOMO: Well, I want to see what they do with the PED stuff that Trump is alleging now. I can't wait to watch next week.

All right, after all that election stuff, you know what we need, some "Good Stuff," next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CUOMO: All right, let's get some "Good Stuff" going here. The Fuller Cut Barber Shop is outside Ann Arbor, Michigan, right? It promotes literacy by encouraging boys to read books featuring black characters or black history while they are in the chair.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The kid couldn't read. So the kid just counted cupcakes for me. But what that kid did was put a book in his hand. That's the important part.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CUOMO: Isn't that great? Barber's Alex Fuller (ph) and Ryan Griffin (ph) even give parents a discount shaving, $2 off the price of haircuts, when kids try to read the books.

CAMEROTA: Shaving $2 off the haircuts. I like your play on words there.

CUOMO: Barber shops, always been a center of community.

CAMEROTA: Barber shops. How cute was that little boy?

CUOMO: Very cute.

CAMEROTA: That little boy is adorable. Thank you.

[09:00:00] CUOMO: He did have a nice, fresh cut.

CAMEROTA: He did.

All right, on that note, time for "Newsroom" with Carol Costello.

Hi, Carol.

CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: Hi. Have a great day. NEWSROOM starts now.