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Iraqi Forces Inflict "Heavy Losses" on ISIS in Iraq; Polls Tighten in 3 Important Swing States; Record-Breaking October Heat; Are Trump's "Rigged" Election Claims Stoking Fears? Aired 6:30-7a ET

Aired October 18, 2016 - 06:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[06:30:07] NICK PATON WALSH, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: An interesting piece of news we're just hearing. According to the AFP news agency, Turkish prime minister has said their jets took part in coalition air strikes over the city. That throws potentially a big geopolitical span into all of this, because Iraq has been very clear they want Turkey out of this. Turkey is part of anti-ISIS coalition. They may have been in the air.

We can frankly not tell from here quite exactly who's been bombing who. That may well anger those pro-Iranian Shia militias who are saying they want to get involved in the Mosul fight but shouldn't be a part, according to the official plan here.

So, all these geopolitical bits of fiery rhetoric swirling here. But all eyes frankly on -- as these forces move towards the city of Mosul, where there are 1.2 million people potentially caught in the crossfire inside that urban sprawl, quite what happened to them. Do they get out to the refugee camps near where I'm standing where potentially they can find shelter and some kind of safety? Or do we see a nasty and bloody end to what is the last chapter of ISIS in Iraq? Alisyn?

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: Nick, thank you so much for all your reporting and all of your intense video that you're sharing with us. Thank you for being there. We'll check back with you.

So, back here at home, the latest national polls show Hillary Clinton widening her lead over Donald Trump. However, in the key battleground states, the race is tightening. Our panel breaks down these differing numbers, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[06:35:59] CAMEROTA: New swing state polls show the race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump tightening. In Nevada, North Carolina, and Ohio, these are all must-win states for Trump in his narrowing road to the 270 electoral votes needed.

So, let's bring back our panel to go through these numbers. We have David Gregory and Jackie Kucinich.

OK. Let's start with the new CNN poll out of Nevada, let's look at this, because I think that these are all margin of error races. So, Clinton to has 46, Trump has 44 percent. Let's look at North Carolina, it's even tighter. Clinton gets 48 percent, he gets 47 percent.

Then, Ohio, Trump is winning there, 48 percent to Clinton's 44 percent.

Jackie, what do you think? I mean, Ohio keeps being held out as, you know, the Trump -- people have consistently been favoring Trump in Ohio. What's going on in that state?

JACKIE KUCINICH, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: I mean, a lot of it is his trade message. Ohio demographically is good for Donald Trump. You're seeing his trade message really resonate there. But you're talking during the break, there are some self-inflicted wounds going on in Ohio. He is ahead there, but then you have his Ohio chairman going after the Ohio GOP chairman and saying that he's not loyal and disassociating himself.

CAMEROTA: So, there's this infighting among Republicans.

KUCINICH: So, there's infighting in a state that Donald Trump really could win. He could win Ohio.

CHRIS CUOMO, CNN ANCHOR: There was a poll recently that had her up one after the recent spate of events in Ohio. But it's very tight.

So, David, help us understand. We keep hearing, whether it's the CNN poll of polls or some of these other larger offerings, that Clinton is growing her lead, but then you look at these background states and it seems that the race is just as tight or compressing. Distinguish the two for the audience.

DAVID GREGORY, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, you do have a collection of polls that show her with a pretty commanding national lead. And even some of these background states, the fact that this was a Republican state in 2012, talking about North Carolina, where she has an edge. And Nevada is a Democratic state from the last cycles.

I think a lot of what's important that will happen in the final three weeks will not be visible to us on a national basis. It's really going to be about how the close and how they turn out the vote. I think the difficulty for Donald Trump, he's got a narrow path to 270, and he's not finding a way to grow his base of support.

So, even in tight states, a state like Ohio favors him demographically with white working class voters and men, but still finding kind of ceiling in these other states and he's going to have to deal with. And can he close as well as Hillary Clinton in terms of money, message, surrogates, and all of those areas where she can get out the vote?

CAMEROTA: If you look inside these polls and you look at the demographics of who's voting for him, let's try to do that because the female vote, the all-important female vote, we've heard so many times women might decide this. If you look at Nevada, North Carolina, and Ohio, she wins the female vote in every single one of those states, pretty handily. Except again, Ohio, where she gets 48, he gets 45.

Jackie --

CUOMO: And all margins are less than what we've seen in the overall poll. It says it's about 20 points with her. None of those numbers are close to 20.

CAMEROTA: So, with women voters, have we seen them leave him since the lewd comments?

KUCINICH: It depends on what poll you're looking at. In the CNN poll, no. In other polls, you see a little bit of fluctuation.

But in terms of the video, we have seen people didn't really care about. It didn't really change a lot of minds. In terms of the other allegations, it really varies.

But, you know, bottom line is, as we were talking about, this is going to go down to the wire. Also, every day counts right now. Early voting has been going on in Ohio in particular. And I believe in North Carolina as well, though I don't have that in front of me right now.

So, every day counts with these candidates. Everything they say, because people are voting every single day.

CUOMO: Give me a twofer, David, quickly here. One, why is there a different margin with women in battleground states versus the overall. And, secondly, what do you think of his suggestion that Clinton is looking to expand the electoral map into red states like Arizona?

[06:40:03] GREGORY: I don't have a good answer with regard to the first question and why there's such a distinction, but I do think we've seen enough polls now to show that the gender gaps big, bigger than we've seen in decades and that he's not making any positive gains there, which is a real problem. Again, making some efforts. Melania Trump coming out, trying to soften his hard edges among women and so forth. You know, we'll see what happens.

I think that -- you see this in campaigns. Sometimes it can be a head fake to try to go into states and say it's tighter than it is. You see the polling out of Arizona, which means they've got an opportunity, the Clinton campaign, to extend this map and try to win this in a more commanding fashion. They're putting money, they're putting Chelsea Clinton there, and Michelle Obama going to Arizona as well.

CAMEROTA: David, Jackie, thank you.

So, join us tomorrow night for the final showdown between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. CNN's debate coverage starts at 4:00 p.m. Eastern.

CUOMO: A stunning admission from nation's largest law enforcement group. What he is saying about police actions toward minorities, next. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CUOMO: If you could boil it down to five things, these would be them to know for your NEW DAY.

Number one, Donald Trump taking his claim of a rigged system a step further, calling for government ethics reforms. This is probably a good idea no matter what. It comes at the same time as new e-mail fallout for Hillary Clinton, triggering allegations of a quid pro quo between the FBI and State Department.

[06:45:06] CAMEROTA: Melania Trump breaking her silence in an interview with CNN's Anderson Cooper. She says that that leaked audiotape of Donald Trump making lewd comments about women was nothing more than, quote, "boy talk" and her husband was egged on by Billy Bush.

CUOMO: Iraqi forces and their allies making significant gains as they push into Mosul. The first 24 hours of the battle marked with air strikes, fierce gun battles, suicide car bombs. Pentagon officials say the operation is actually ahead of schedule.

CAMEROTA: People in Aleppo telling CNN there have been no air strikes by Russia and Syrian forces in the region. This comes as both sides had agreed to an eight-hour humanitarian pause Thursday to allow rebels and the wounded to leave that war-torn city.

CUOMO: The head of the nation's largest police chief group apologizing for the, quote, "historical mistreatment of racial minorities". Wellesley, Massachusetts chief Terrance Cunningham saying the apology is a first step and calling for common solutions to protect communities.

For more on the five things to know, go to NewDayCNN.com for the latest.

CAMEROTA: All right. Donald Trump stoking fears of a rigged election, and it's firing up many of his supporters and possibly inciting violence.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SHERIFF DAVID CLARKE, MILWAUKEE COUNTY SHERIFF: Like I said and I'll continue to say, it is pitchfork and torches time in America!

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAMEROTA: We're going to take a closer look at the consequences of Trump's words, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[06:50:39] CAMEROTA: There is record-breaking October heat. It is moving east. How long will it last?

Let's bring in CNN meteorologist Chad Myers. He has all of the answers for us.

What are you seeing there, Chad?

CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: I see a couple days and not much more than that, but we will have 40 record highs across the country today, all the way from about Detroit down to the Gulf Coast and as far as the Northeast, obviously. It will be 89 degrees today in Memphis and almost making a run at 90 in Nashville.

New York, Baltimore, D.C., enjoy it if you like the warm weather. We have only a couple days of this to go because it is going to cool down. In fact, New York City, by Saturday and Sunday, the high will only be in the 50s, middle 50s. And morning lows in the 40s. Yes, just a little respite with a little dip in the jet stream coming our way.

Something else I'm watching, too, I know we talked about Matthew ad nauseam a couple weeks ago, but this storm here could make its way up toward the Northeast as a rainmaker. No number, not really yet. It could be 99L later on today. We'll watch it.

I know we kind of dropped the ball on this with all the political coverage, but believe it or not, guys, Matthew killed 45 people, a storm that we consider a near miss still killed 45 people in the U.S. alone. So keep that in mind. We'll keep watching.

CUOMO: And you know what? And I'll tell you, Chad, it wasn't a near miss to the people that it hit, right? It sounds painfully obvious, but there are a lot of people's lives changed forever. Their property and a lot of people lost everything, as you're mentioning.

Chad, thank you very much. We'll check back with you in a little bit.

So, Donald Trump escalating claims that the election is rigged. Why do we care? There is voter fraud. Well, because when you do it so extremely as he has, it's inciting, it's making people angry.

And the fear then becomes violence. So, we just heard the Milwaukee County sheriff, Clarke, who's become a very big deal in American politics. He was talking about this. Listen to it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLARKE: They want you to give up, folks. They want you to say, the hell with it, it's fixed, it's rigged, and it is, but they want you to say, the hell with it, I'm not going to participate. That's what they're hoping for.

It's not going to work. It is not going to work. Stay strong. Find new voters. Get them to the polls. Like I said, and I'll continue to say, it is pitchfork and torches time in America!

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CUOMO: They love it there, but could people take the message wrong way? CAMEROTA: What is the wrong way? What is the message of pitchforks

and torches?

CUOMO: It sounds like angry townsfolk going to storm some situation they are against, right, whether it's Frankenstein or whatever they're coming after.

CAMEROTA: So, what's the other message?

CUOMO: That's the question, right? Good one. Thank you very much. I could have answered it. That would have made the segment a lot shorter.

Let's bring in David Frum, a senior editor at "The Atlantic," who was a speech writer for President George W. Bush, and Sara Murray, CNN political reporter who's been on the trail with Trump and knows what it's like to be a reporter in this environment of all this anger.

So, Sara, let me start with you.

A lot of talk is just political talk. It's just rhetoric. It gets people heated up. But this seems to be different, that it's not just a contrary, it's hostile. And it's getting to be potentially violent. What has been your experience?

SARA MURRAY, CNN POLITICAL REPORTER: Well, I think it is different because you have a candidate now talking about a rigged election system, essentially trying to undermine the integrity of our American elections. And this is part of what makes America such a great country, is that we have an open, free, decentralized democracy. It is extremely, extremely difficult to rig an American election in a widespread way because of that.

But this feeds into the narrative for Donald Trump that the fix is in, that everything is not only stacked against him but stacked against regular working class voters, whether that means the political establishment, whether that means the media, or whether in this case that means the election system. And it's particularly worrisome because it could have the impact of not only voter intimidation but also voter suppression. It could just inspire people to stay home.

In many ways, this is actually what the Trump campaign is aiming for. They are hoping that this will fire up Donald Trump supporters and that it will keep young voters, will keep minority voters just depressed enough so they won show up on Election Day.

CAMEROTA: David, what do you think the consequences are of all of this language and the idea that there's tremendous voter fraud and there's pitchfork and torches time?

[06:55:05] DAVID FRUM, SENIOR EDITOR, THE ATLANTIC: I think we'll have almost the opposite effect of what Sara just said. Look, one out of 10, maybe one of 100 hotheads hears this kind of language and decides to do something terrible. But nine out of 10, or 99 out of 100 who hear it, who believe it, will be discouraged. As Sheriff Clarke said, and actually saw detention of what he was saying in his remarks, most of you will hear and say, well, in that case, I'll stay home.

Donald Trump's whole hope is to immobilize people who regularly do not vote. Down market white people, especially males, people who probably didn't vote in 2012 because they didn't see the point, to get them to the polls. And the way as President Obama showed in 2012, you get people who don't vote much to go to the polls is you make them believe that their votes matter, that they're powerful. This is the one time in four years you can really make the mightiest people in the country quake before you.

If you tell them it's hopeless, it's doomed, you're rigged, yeah, somebody may throw a brick through a window or worse, but more people are going to say, in that case, just going to open another beer and stay on this couch. That has terrible repercussions, by the way, for down ballot Republicans to the extent that anybody believes in Trump.

CUOMO: The irony is that Clarke is saying what they want you to think, what they want you to think -- he's really talking about Donald Trump. Donald Trump is the one who's saying the system is broken. So, it's odd that he's trying to help Trump by giving a message that may not help there.

But what is your take, David, on the impact of someone like a Sheriff Clarke with the hat pulled low, you can't see his eyes, talking torches and all that other nonsense?

FRUM: Well, Sheriff Clarke tweeted out an image that showed people with torches and pitchforks. They were really old. My reaction was it looked like cast reunion of young Frankenstein.

Look, the fact is the Republican --

(CROSSTALK)

FRUM: The Republican coalition skews old. So there is a problem with -- they're not people who are likely to throw bricks. But the voters whom Trump wants, they skew whiter and younger. They are low turnout voters, people with weak commitment to the political system. The reason they give for not voting is they think the system is rigged.

When you empower them, you may not rev them up, you may sedate them. That's doom not only for Trump but down ballot Republicans.

CAMEROTA: I don't know, David. I find your assessment comforting. Staying home and cracking open a beer, that's fine.

FRUM: No, it's not fine. Everybody should vote. Everybody should vote.

(CROSSTALK)

CAMEROTA: Sure, I get that message.

But I'm more concerned about violence. Let's face it, we've already seen some, Sara. The animosity certainly towards the press, you've been subject to this at Trump rallies. It's real. MURRAY: Well, I think that's the reality is, you know, you're right.

A lot of people, David, will just sort of brush this off and call it political rhetoric. But a lot of people don't. And we see that day in and day out because people do turn out for Donald Trump rallies by the thousands.

These people, they're angry. They're angry because they feel like economy has left them behind, because their politicians have left them behind, because they don't feel part of their community in whatever way they did before, and they want someone to help channel that anger.

And Donald Trump has really done that. At every turn when there's an opportunity to turn down the temperature, and I feel like the wake of this attack on the North Carolina GOP is a good example, Donald Trump doesn't turn it down. He ratchets it up.

And day to day on the campaign trail that, means that if you're a member of the media, you walk in to an event of thousands of people screaming at you, flipping you off, telling you, you know, that you suck. So, there is a real impact of this.

CAMEROTA: David, Sara, thank you very much for your take on all of this.

FRUM: Thank you.

CAMEROTA: Great to talk to you.

CUOMO: What is your take on this situation? Tweet us @NewDay or post your comment on Facebook.com/NewDay.

We're following a lot of news this morning. We he the latest from the front lines of the battle for Mosul. Let's get to it.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Voter fraud is very, very common.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Elections in America today are more secure than they've ever been.

TRUMP: Where are the street smarts of some of these politicians?

HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It isn't easy running against someone who is so negative, so dark and dangerous.

GOV. MIKE PENCE (R), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Voter fraud cannot be tolerated.

CLINTON: It is not just who wins this election. It's actually bigger than that.

MELANIA TRUMP, WIFE OF DONALD TRUMP: They want to influence the American people how to vote. And they're influencing in the wrong way. BILL CLINTON, FORMER PRESIDENT: I am so tired of hearing the other

side tell me how America is going to hell in a hand basket.

ANNOUNCER: This is NEW DAY with Chris Cuomo and Alisyn Camerota.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CAMEROTA: Good morning, everyone. Welcome to your new day.

Donald Trump continuing his claims of a rigged election, blasting Republican leaders who deny that. Trump also slamming Hillary Clinton over new documents released by the FBI that show a State Department official pressuring the bureau to declassify an e-mail on Benghazi.

CUOMO: Also, Melania Trump decides to take to the air waves. She does interviews defending her husband. She does it with Anderson Cooper in a CNN interview.