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Electoral Vote Race; Clinton Widens Lead; Big Debate Moments. Aired 8:30-9a ET

Aired October 20, 2016 - 08:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:30:54] CHRIS CUOMO, CNN ANCHOR: All right, so that does it. Last night was the last mano a mano we're going to see between Trump and Clinton. So, who has the advantage now specifically with electoral votes? Remember, that's what really decides it. We have CNN's chief nation correspondent and anchor of "Inside Politics," Mr. John King, and he takes a look at possible scenarios and whether Trump can make a comeback. Here it is.

JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Chris and Alisyn 19 days left - just 19 days left and look at this map. Donald Trump faces what even many Republicans say is an improbable, if not an impossible task. Look at where we have the race, 307 electoral votes right now for Hillary Clinton. You all know that she needs 270 to win. So she is well past the finish line as we see the race today. Donald Trump at 179.

Let's see if his debate performance changes the polls as we go forward because look at what is so striking about this map. Not only is Hillary Clinton across the finish line, we've put Utah and Arizona in the toss-up category. Mitt Romney won Utah with 72 percent of the vote four years ago. He won Arizona by ten points four years ago. That these two ruby red states are now toss-ups tells you just about all you need to know about Donald Trump's challenge as we try to go to the finish line.

These are the most surprising changes in our electoral map. The most significant, though, we now lean Florida blue, likely Democratic, 29 electoral votes. Donald Trump cannot win the White House without those 29 electoral votes. Even if Donald Trump won all of the gold, all of the toss-ups on this map, he'd still be well short.

So what does he need to do? He needs to shore up his Republican base out in the red states. He needs to somehow turn Florida back. Even that's not enough. North Carolina, Clinton leads right now. It's a toss-up, but Clinton leads narrowly. Ohio, Trump might have a slight lead there. It's perhaps one of his best states, but it's still not enough. Donald Trump needs to fundamentally change the arc of this race because Hillary Clinton, as it looks right now, is on her path to a convincing victory.

Can Donald Trump do it? Let's watch in the next coming days. I often say, pay no attention to the national polls, but this campaign is a little different because of this. Hillary Clinton came into the debate last night, look at that, with an eight-point lead nationally. You can look at the polling in Florida. You can look at the polling in North Carolina. You can see if Donald Trump can close the gap in somewhere like Michigan or Pennsylvania. But, first watch this. If the polls look like this by the time we get to the weekend, not today, not tomorrow, let the debate settle in, if the polls look like this by the time we get to the weekend, it's going to be very hard for Donald Trump to bend that map I just showed you. First he has to get closer in the national race, then he can worry about on overwhelming Clinton advantage in the electoral college.

Chris and Alisyn.

CUOMO: Boy, that John King is handsome and smart as hell, right, Alisyn.

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: And awake at all hours of the day.

CUOMO: I know, but he always baffles Alisyn and me because we can't understand how deep into the weeds they get so fast.

So let's get "The Bottom Line" with CNN political director David Chalian.

Help us because we were kind of asking questions while we were watching John King. Is there a scenario, David, where Hillary Clinton gets over the 270 but Donald Trump could win the popular vote because the turnout estimates wind up being low - wind up being, you know -

CAMEROTA: Wrong somehow.

CUOMO: Wrong?

DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Well, that would be counter to what we are seeing. In fact, for quite some time, we were seeing a tighter Electoral College race than the national polls, the popular vote, if you will, would suggest. You are right to question turnout because that is always going to be the question about an election. Like, whose supporters turn out at the numbers that the candidate needs, and there's no way to know that before you actually get to the election and count the votes. But you can bottle (ph) an estimate based on past behavior.

CUOMO: But is it true, David, that the estimates for turnout - is it true that the estimates for turnout are higher than they were in 2008, even though, in the Democratic side of the primary, we saw it lower than it was in 2008?

CHALIAN: I've seen estimates on both sides. Some saying that it will be a higher turnout than 2012. Some people saying that it will be lower. I don't think anyone is estimating turnout at the - at a higher level right now than 2008. Although the Clinton campaign, I should say, believes it will set a record and be the record highest turnout ever. They're on - they're on the record saying that.

[08:34:54] CAMEROTA: OK. So the scenario that has now reared its head is, what if this is not all over on November 8th and on November 9th we wake up and let's just say Donald Trump has lost but he refuses to concede. Maybe it's too tight. Maybe he says that he wants a recount. Kellyanne Conway was on responding to how Donald Trump refused to commit last night to whether or not he would accept the outcome of the election. Here's what Kellyanne, his campaign manager, said to us.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KELLYANNE CONWAY, TRUMP CAMPAIGN MANAGER: What Donald Trump has said over time, if you take all the statements together, Chris, he has said that in - that he will respect the results of the election. But everybody, including Al Gore in 2000, waits to see what those election results are. You wait to see what the results are, if they're verified, if they're certified.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAMEROTA: What do you think of that, David?

CHALIAN: I just - I don't understand the Florida 2000 example that the Trump campaign is using here. It's not really analogous. It doesn't really apply. That was a state that triggered an automatic recount, one state that was so close that triggered an automatic recount, and therefore the recount had to take place, certification was delayed and you saw the 36 days sort of contest if you will. And then at the end of that, when the courts did decide and end that election contest, Al Gore, in fact, did accept those results, even though he said he disagreed with them and actually moved towards the peaceful transition of power that is sort of a fundamental principle of our democracy. So I don't see how that compares to, on election night, you know, or even let's say 20 days out from election on the stage of the final debate refusing to say that you will accept the election results as they are on November 8th.

CUOMO: And Senator Tim Kaine was on the show this morning, also obviously Hillary Clinton's nominee for vice president, she's - her running mate. He says this doesn't matter. Listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. TIM KAINE (D), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Whether or not he concedes is probably irrelevant. The question is, is the mandate clear on the 8th of November? Donald is still going to whine if he loses. But if the mandate is clear, I don't think many people will follow him.

We do have a concern, but I - we also have confidence in the American public.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAMEROTA: OK. What do you think - is that an overly rosy picture that he is painting about what might happen on November 9th?

CHALIAN: I actually think what he - he did there unwittingly perhaps is actually point to one of the challenges Hillary Clinton now has before her, which is, if she does win this election, as signs are pointing that she may, she's going to win this election, guys, with a lot of voters who don't like her. They think more unfavorably of her than favorably, who don't trust her perhaps or don't think she's honest and trustworthy, and yet their vote - they may cast their lot with her in looking at the two choices. That's going to be a challenge for Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine to then piece together a sort of governing strategy from there, and that will only be compounded, of course, if Donald Trump is actually out there saying that the results are not legitimate because his supporters will be very fired up about that.

CAMEROTA: Yes, definitely. David Chalian, thank you for being our "Bottom Line" today.

CHALIAN: Thanks, guys.

CAMEROTA: So the drama started before the debate even began. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump refused to shake hands. What else did viewers notice during the debate? Our media eagle-eyed experts tell us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:42:19] CAMEROTA: Donald Trump standing by those claims that the election is rigged and that the media is partly to blame. So let's discuss with our CNN senior media correspondent and host of "Reliable Sources," Brian Stelter, and CNN media analyst Bill Carter.

Gentlemen, great to see you.

BRIAN STELTER, CNN SENIOR MEDIA CORRESPONDENT: You too.

CAMEROTA: Bill, what jumped out at you last night?

BILL CARTER, CNN MEDIA ANALYST: Well, I thought it was, you know, a pretty dominant performance by her. I think she was able to get under his skin pretty fast, talking about Putin very early. I thought, you know, he made the mistakes that we would expect him to make with the little asides and everything. And then he just totally stepped in it with this, you know, comment about the election. And you knew as soon as he said that this is going to be the - finally the gaffe that gets carried over I think he made last night. We've seen him say a lot of things and then it doesn't stick, but I'm pretty sure this one will stick.

CAMEROTA: But, I mean, it's certainly the head line today -

CARTER: Yes.

CAMEROTA: That he says that he hadn't decided yet whether he would accept the election results.

CARTER: Yes.

CAMEROTA: But who knows if that's -

CUOMO: And the suspense part. The suspension part, the button on it - CARTER: Yes.

STELTER: That's the thing.

CUOMO: I'll keep you in suspense, Brian.

CARTER: Yes.

CUOMO: That played to, boy, he does see this as an entertainment show. You know, this is him creating a ploy that puts his own pride before this process. And that seemed to cement it for people and overshadowed other things that were equally or more wacky.

STELTER: Yes, suspense is the language a TV producer uses. Now, I love TV produces, but this is so much more than a reality show. This is so much more than the Trump show. And, you know, this morning, guys, there's this new narrative that it's just the elites that are upset about Trump talking about a stolen election. That is nonsense. You know, this isn't about Trump at all. This is about the millions of people who are being fed this garbage by Trump, and the millions of people who are going to believe it. It's really not about Trump. It's about his voters who are being misled by him. And I think that's why it mattered so much last night that he said he wouldn't accept the outcome.

CAMEROTA: You know, Bill, this story continues to bubble, that all of this is sort of one big audition for the future of Trump TV.

CUOMO: Right.

CARTER: Yes.

CAMEROTA: Some Trump network. Where are we with that?

CARTER: Well, you know, he - he had his FaceBook feed. It looked like sort of a trial run for this kind of thing. You know, I - I think that's a - more of a longshot than people think because putting together that kind of business, you can't start a TV network now. It's very - almost impossible to do that. Subscription service, how many people are really going to pay for that? It's not an automatic thing. He has a following.

CAMEROTA: But why not think millions - he has millions and millions of people.

CARTER: He has a following. He basically has 39 percent. It was very interesting in the polls. Both polls, scientific polls, 39 percent. What has he - what has he got in the polls, the overall polls, 39 percent.

CAMEROTA: Yes.

CARTER: That's his base. That's what he has.

CAMEROTA: That's a good subscription service. CARTER: That's a good - it is, but do they have money? Are they willing to dispose of it when it's not an election year? There are questions about it.

[09:44:54] CUOMO: Hey, Brian what do you think of this idea that Trump may be losing this election, but Clinton's not winning it. That even last night, while she was solid, as Bill says, I don't disagree with that, she wasn't moved to the point that even his own supporters within the GOP were moved by this statement, that she hasn't had that moment of just, have you no decency, sir, or just that human response to wacky comments. Like last night he said we're in Mosul because they want to help Hillary Clinton's election. He refused to acknowledge that Putin has something to do with the hacking, even though 17 intelligence agencies say exactly that. And she never really looked at him and was like, come on, man. You know, none of that moment that everyone else seems to have when he says these.

STELTER: Yes, you're right. You're right. All the - all the viral clips the next day, after all three of these debates, were of Trump. They were of Trump's comments, not hers. You know, there hasn't been a lot of inspiration from her and I think that is a fair criticism of the Clintons, but also the Clinton campaign. You know, they have been boxed in by their own focus groups, by their own expertise. They believe, for example, that if she were to interrupt Trump a bunch of times, she would be criticized. Voters wouldn't like it. Voters would dial her down in the polls. You know, so there's that sort of - they're almost trying too hard in some way to play this safe toward the end.

CAMEROTA: OK.

CARTER: Well, you don't take risks when you're way ahead. I don't think - I think that's part of it.

CAMEROTA: They're playing it safe.

CARTER: Yes.

CAMEROTA: So we've talked a lot about substance during these past four hours about all of the different policies that were laid out. Let's talk a little bit about stagecraft.

CARTER: Right.

CAMEROTA: OK. So there was the big question, will they shake hands. No, they did not shake hands. And it seemed quite choreographed because they both just came out, they barely nodded at each other, and then they took to their podiums.

Bill, also, in terms of a stylistic thing, she has a better poker face than he does.

CARTER: Yes. Right.

CAMEROTA: He - you knew exactly how Trump was feeling.

CARTER: How - he reacts all the time.

CAMEROTA: He - he kept -

CARTER: Yes.

CAMEROTA: And the split screen, obviously, shows you all of the (INAUDIBLE).

CUOMO: CNN did the split screen.

CARTER: Yes.

CUOMO: I mean we say this each debate, I think it's genius. I don't have anything to do with the decision, so I can say that. Having the split screen, which they do -

CARTER: I agree with you totally.

CUOMO: Not only gives you ownership of the event -

CARTER: Yes.

CUOMO: Because you don't know that it's not a CNN event, but you are locked in on what they're doing the whole time.

CARTER: Yes.

CUOMO: Most of the audience, if they're not watching CNN, you get a much broader sense of it.

CARTER: It's true.

CUOMO: You don't really know how they're focused on it.

CARTER: But I think that works really well. And I don't - I don't want to watch anything but the split screen because of that. I want to see what they're both doing. She would occasionally have sort of a fakeish smile. You know that's what she sort of does. But his reactions, I mean, he - he was doing the full Baldwin at times. You know what I mean. He really was with the wrong and this, you know, making all those comments. And I think that really -

CUOMO: Best was the puppet thing.

CARTER: The puppet thing. No puppet. No puppet.

CUOMO: I've been saying with Alisyn this morning, it's like a spin - a spoon of spinach was coming towards his face when she said "puppet."

CARTER: Yes.

CUOMO: He was like this, no, no puppet, no puppet. You're the puppet.

CAMEROTA: All right, let's have a little bit of levity. Stephen Colbert was live during - afterwards. So he talked about the puppet. Listen to this. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

STEPHEN COLBERT, "THE LATE SHOW WITH STEPHEN COLBERT": Two of these politicians got into a bit of an argument about who is doing Vladimir Putin's bidding.

HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: Well, that's because he'd rather have a puppet as president of the United States.

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: No puppet. No puppet.

CLINTON: And it's pretty clear -

TRUMP: You're the puppet.

CLINTON: It's pretty clear you won't admit -

TRUMP: No, you're the puppet.

CLINTON: That the Russians -

COLBERT: But you're the puppet. No, you're the puppet. You're the puppet. You're the puppet. You're the puppet. You're the puppet. I love you so much! I love you so much! I love you so much, puppet! I love - oh, you love me too! Oh, you love me too!

That was less juvenile than the debate.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAMEROTA: Brian, your thoughts?

STELTER: It's almost as if we need puppet therapy, you know, as a country at this point. And maybe we could all talk it out like that. That's why the handshake actually matters. You know, at the end of this, we are going to need to shake hands sort of symbolically between both sides in this country and it's kind of disappointing that couldn't happen last night.

CAMEROTA: Yes. We're going to have to hug it out.

CARTER: Yes.

CAMEROTA: We're not there yet.

STELTER: Hug it out, that's what we've got to do.

CAMEROTA: We are not there yet, but hopefully we will be in 19 days.

Gentlemen, thank you very much.

CARTER: Thanks.

STELTER: Thanks.

CUOMO: All right, so the big headline from last night was something that even we didn't expect Donald Trump to say, that he may not accept the result of the election if he loses. How significant is this? It's certainly unprecedented. We're going to dig deeper with our historians ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:51:50] CUOMO: Well, once again, we have to say it, never heard anything like this before and Donald Trump said it, refusing to commit to accepting the voters' result. A presidential candidate has just never said anything like this before.

Let's discuss. CNN presidential historian Doug Brinkley, historian and Princeton University Professor Julian Zellzer. Sorry, Julian.

So, why does this matter?

JULIAN ZELLZER, HISTORIAN & PROFESSOR, PRINCETON UNIVERSITY: Well, it matters first because it will undermine the legitimacy of the election in the minds of many voters, many Trump supporters. And second, more practically, there are fears on voting day that there will be intimidation and harassment of voters when they go to the ballot box. So, on both fronts, these are not the kind of arguments people are comfortable with from the main stream nominee.

CAMEROTA: Douglas, we heard today from Trump's camp that they say there is a precedent for this. They say 2000 was a precedent for this, where one candidate refuses to accept the outcome and doesn't concede. Do you think that 2000, what happened with Al Gore, is any sort of analogy here?

DOUGLAS BRINKLEY, CNN PRESIDENTIAL HISTORIAN: No, absolutely not. I keep hearing people on the right saying that. Al Gore had conceded to George W. Bush the election in a very noble and early fashion and then found out that there was going to be a need for a recount in Florida and then pulled back and said let's wait. What Donald Trump's doing is before even a single vote is cast, casting aspersions on our entire free and fair elections. That's one of our great exports around the world. In fact, many Americans go and monitor other countries to show them how to do these elections.

So what's played out last night all over the world is a feeling that America 2016's running a bogus election. One of the two main candidates says it's all corrupt, it's all rotten, and I won't even accept the result if it happens. For a lot of us, we might say that's just the Donald. But for around the world, it looks like a breakdown of our democratic process.

CUOMO: Douglas, can you imagine, give us some context, if a Democrat said in an election, you know, Assad is smarter than the current Republican president and Putin is a better leader than the current Republican president. And you know what, all over the world, Iran, Syria, Putin, they mock how stupid our leadership is. Historically, what has happened when Democrats question American authority? How does the GOP usually take that?

BRINKLEY: Well, they - they'll lash him and hammer him into the ground, call them anti-American, call them in one generation communist or you know terrorist collaborators. Pick your term. But what Donald Trump seems to love Putin, and love Assad. He loves dictators. That's why he calls this election rigged. He himself has a dictatorial personality. It's neo-fascist or outright fascism and it keeps manifesting itself. He's a cult of one, himself. He's a demagogue who wants to try to rally the masses. And he keeps - you know what we might see like he made a mistake last night, in Donald Trump's mind, I made no mistake at all. I give you the right authoritarian answer.

[08:55:01] CAMEROTA: So, professor, give us any historical analogy to this. When Donald Trump was not willing to commit to whether or not he would, in fact, accept the outcome of the election on November 8th, it - forget presidential races has there been any race where a candidate who loses says I'm not going to concede and I don't accept this?

ZELLZER: Well, sure. There has been post-election contestation of the vote. This happens in 1876. This happens in 2000. But the point is, the vote takes place, there's certain areas where the ballots are in question and they recount it and until that's done there's no concession. This is different. This is a month going in. This is the closing argument of Donald Trump, that whatever happens, if I don't win, this is not legitimate. So I - you know, people ask me all the time, aren't there precedents? Isn't this like something that's happened? I actually think this is qualitatively different what we're seeing.

CAMEROTA: You've never seen anything like this basically?

ZELLZER: No, not - you've had hints of this argument. John McCain made some of these arguments in 2008 warning about voter fraud with the controversy surrounding ACORN and voter registration. Donald Trump talked a little bit about this in 2012, after the election. But he is the nominee now, and this isn't one argument. This is the argument of the final month. So this is different.

CUOMO: So, Douglas, what do you think, when the books are written about what the story of this campaign was, how does it go down in history?

BRINKLEY: Well, as of now, it looks like Hillary Clinton's going to win and a big headline's going to be the first woman president, just as it was when African-American Barack Obama won. That will be a big takeaway. But it will also be how - how - or how tender and how thin the tissue of reality of our presidential elections are that somebody like Donald Trump, a showman, a carney who wouldn't release his taxes, someone who said the form president or President, you know, Barack Obama was not born in the United States, somebody who routinely attacked women and Latinos and disabled people still was able to get 39 percent of the vote. I think it will be the astonishing fact that he not only got the GOP nomination, but that a solid third of the country was backing his very destructive, infowars (ph), Alex Jones (ph) like conspiracy vision of our country and our neighbors.

CAMEROTA: We only have a few seconds. Last word.

ZELLZER: Yes, I think part of it isn't just Trump but what was going on in the Republican Party that there were this many supporters for arguments and a candidate that many see as not being in the main stream of American politics. What's going on in the electorate? That's the question we have to wrestle with.

CUOMO: Always tricky to ask professors of history what the story will be before the last chapter is actually written, but appreciate the foresight to you both.

CAMEROTA: Thank you guys.

BRINKLEY: Thank you.

ZELLZER: Thanks.

CAMEROTA: Thank you all for watching our coverage this morning. "Newsroom" with Carol Costello is going to pick up after this very quick break. We'll see you tomorrow.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:00:07] (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CHRIS WALLACE, MODERATOR: Do you make the same commitment? Can you absolutely, sir, that you will absolutely accept the result of this election?