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FBI Director Under Fire Over New Email Probe; 3 Dead After Two Buses Crash In Baltimore; Can Trump Flip Blue States In Final Campaign Stretch?; Iraqi Troops On The Verge Of Entering Mosul; Retired Col. Slams Trump For Attacking Military Strategy. Aired 7:30-8a ET

Aired November 01, 2016 - 07:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[07:30:00] CHRIS CUOMO, CNN ANCHOR: They say there's nothing there and the FBI may agree. But now, you could get a letter from Paul Manafort to some, you know, unnamed Russian -- you know, some guy's Russian name that may be suspicious to us but means nothing to the FBI.

CHRISTINE QUINN, FORMER NYC COUNCIL SPEAKER, CLINTON SUPPORTER: Chris, that may or may not be true, but that train left the station when the FBI director made the statements he made, sent the letter he sent on Friday. And before Kayleigh brings it up, I have said on this show that I have great respect for the director and his career.

And I think it's sad that one of the things that's going to come out of this race is that reputation being called into question. Not by me because who cares what I think about the FBI director, but called in by countless Republican and Democratic security experts across the country.

So we are, sadly, now in a position which, you're right, could cause more confusion a week out. And why all this confusion is being caused is one of the great questions to look at after Election Day, but I think we have no choice because we couldn't -- we need information --

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: Yes.

QUINN: -- to erase the confusion and get the facts and it's going to mean a lot of work for a lot of people.

CAMEROTA: And one more very quick question, Christine, before we get back to Kayleigh. How are you so confident that they're not going to find anything on Anthony Weiner's laptop connected to this? How can you know?

QUINN: Well look, the Secretary has made it very clear she believes there's nothing there. Huma, herself -- her aide -- has made it very clear that they believe that there is nothing there. And I take them very solidly -- two women I know very, very well, personally, for a long time -- at their word. Look, you wouldn't say that if you had any worry in your mind at all -- you wouldn't.

CUOMO: Kayleigh McEnany, how do you respond to this?

KAYLEIGH MCENANY, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Yes, you would say that, especially if you know that that information can't be let out in the middle of the investigation. You're essentially trying to have Director Comey call your bluff and he's not going to do that because he's not going to let out information that pertains to classified.

QUINN: So then, why does your campaign say it's been such a --

MCENANY: But here's the thing. To say that you take Hillary Clinton at her word --

QUINN: I do.

MCENANY: Hillary Clinton, who said that she could not recall 65-odd times. Hillary Clinton, who could not recall if she had ever used an iPad in her life despite owning several iPads. Who said she turned over all work-related emails and she did not. There is so much corruption.

And, Christine, I have to say, this kind of culture, in this city in Washington, D.C., of misleading the American people and being actively contradicted by the FBI director is what led to the rise of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. It's time to drain the swamp.

QUINN: First of all --

MCENANY: It's time to bring ethics back to this town and be public servants, not going into Congress and personally enriching yourself.

CAMEROTA: OK.

MCENANY: That is what --

QUINN: First of all, let's not associate Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump together. I really think that is an insult.

MCENANY: Let's do it. They're outsiders.

QUINN: It is an insult to Bernie Sanders, who is standing firmly with Hillary Clinton. I've known Hillary Clinton for 25 years and I take her at her word.

But let's talk about people in this race who are holding information back and trying to cloud the American public's knowledge, and that's Donald Trump. We learned today of another questionable legal scheme he used, one his lawyers allegedly cautioned him against using, to avoid paying taxes.

Maybe we now know why Donald Trump, the only presidential candidate in history since taxes have been released, who won't release his taxes because he has gone through every nook and cranny, the back door, and legally unadvised ways to not pay taxes, and then call Americans who do less than intelligent. That's a man who is corrupt.

CAMEROTA: OK. The last word, Kayleigh.

MCENANY: No, I understand you're referring to the front -- I understand you're referring to the front page hit job on "The New York Times" that's all speculative. Maybe we don't know if this is true but we're going to put the rumor out there. We're going to --

QUINN: Just like Director Comey.

(CROSSTALK)

MCENANY: I didn't interrupt you, Christine.

CUOMO: Go ahead.

MCENANY: I understand that you want to distract from the fact that according to "POLITICO", 45 percent think that what your candidate did is worse than Watergate -- worse than Watergate. Voters will decide next Tuesday and they're going to decide on the ethical candidate, not the corrupt one that got us in this situation.

CAMEROTA: OK.

QUINN: They're going to choose the candidate who cares about them. Not Donald Trump --

CAMEROTA: OK.

QUINN: -- who we've seen over and over cares about his pocketbook, period.

CAMEROTA: Ladies, thank you very much.

MCENANY: Thank you.

CAMEROTA: Kayleigh, Christine, thank you.

CUOMO: All right, again, from political talk to something that we're following very, very closely because it's got, literally, life and death implications. This situation -- to get away from this election talk -- we're going to get back to Baltimore. That bus crash is serious. There's new information and we have it for you right after this break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[07:38:25] CAMEROTA: (Video playing) We are following breaking news for you. This, out of Baltimore. A school bus has crashed with a transit bus there. CNN affiliate WBAL is reporting that police say three people have been killed in this accident. You can see the aftermath of it on your screen there -- all of the emergency responders. We do not know if any children were on the school bus or which bus the victims were on, but we are working on getting more information for you. We will bring it to you as soon as we have it.

CUOMO: Yes, and just one quick thing. A lot of you are commenting on these pictures you're seeing and assuming that the commuter bus got the worst of it. I get why you're saying that but there's something you have to remember. It's very early.

We don't know about who was in each of these buses but, very often, these structures are designed to crumple to absorb energy. So sometimes when you see something that looks like it's OK, like that school bus, you don't know what that impact did to the people inside. We'll give you the information as we get it.

Donald Trump -- back to the election -- is hoping the latest development in Hillary Clinton's emails -- I guess, if you're going to call it a development. We don't really know what it is yet. But he's hoping that whatever it is will help turn blue states red. Will it help him get to 270?

Let's discuss with CNN political commentator and host off CNN's "SMERCONISH", Michael Smerconish. Now, Michael, you have been very careful and repetitive in saying examine the popular vote, look at the polls, but remember this is about getting to 270. So, OK, how does this, and what we're seeing in movements in the polls, reflect the reality of that path?

[07:40:00] MICHAEL SMERCONISH, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, my starting premise is to look at that big blue wall, right? To look at all of those states that since 1992 in presidential elections have gone Democratic. And if the pattern for the last six cycles repeats itself, then she starts out at 242. That's the big blue wall. If you add Florida onto the big blue wall, she gets to 271 and it's over.

So, you're looking at his travel schedule and I'm looking at his travel schedule and you're saying, does this really make sense because he appears to be traveling into relatively secure blue states. I think he needs a Hail Mary. I think that the popular vote shows one thing, which is a narrow gap. But when you look at those swing states and the Electoral College map it's a much more decisive edge for her.

If I could say one other thing it would be this. Sam Wang runs the Princeton Election Consortium. In the last cycle he called 49 of 50 states in the presidential race. And when I interviewed him on the radio this week he said I know there's a lot of noise out there but, statistically speaking, it has been a dull election. Chris, dull is not a word that we have used to describe this cycle. Right, Alisyn?

CUOMO: He's talking -- he's taking about --

(CROSSTALK)

CUOMO: He's talking about standard deviation within each number, yes.

SMERCONISH: They say it's a constant, you know.

CUOMO: Yes.

SMERCONISH: It's been on a pretty steady trajectory.

CUOMO: Right.

CAMEROTA: But Michael, help us understand that because we see the national polls fluctuate. I understand national polls, at this point, are not as significant as the battleground states. However, we've even seen Florida fluctuate. He's been winning Florida at some points. I think he may be, still. And so, the national polls have him up -- well, a couple of them -- one of them, certainly, has him up by a point. So how can that be dull? I mean, it seems like a rollercoaster ride.

CUOMO: Because of the range.

CAMEROTA: I don't get this.

SMERCONISH: Because so many of those folks who are decidedly for him or decidedly for her are concentrated in particular geographic areas and in particular states. So when you do a national survey you're taking everybody in without discounting the fact that well, they're all in California. Not all of them, but a significant number are in California, and we know California is going blue for Hillary in this particular cycle.

Or there's a similar red state out there that's definitely going to go for Donald Trump. I mean, I think he still needs the long ball. That's what I'm saying.

CUOMO: It's the range. I mean, you know, you've seen that in these different areas they perform within a certain margin of error within each other, so your trajectory has been kind of the same.

But you're now in a situation where you're in a week out -- and David Frum put it very well. You have some voters -- maybe not a big slice, but you're not going to need a big slice to make a difference in this race -- who are kind of waking up to the reality that they have to make a choice. So you have that primacy-recency effect, right, Michael, that what you hear right now, first, and what you may hear right before you go in the polls could make the biggest difference.

SMERCONISH: I agree with that just so long as we keep in mind that, already, 20 million plus Americans have gone to vote. That's something new to the modern era. If we were having this conversation 20 years ago that wouldn't be the case. But let me -- let me give you my take on it.

CUOMO: But you're expecting about 130 million, right?

SMERCONISH: No doubt. A lot of folks still to come and most of them on that day, itself, because of states like my own, in Pennsylvania, where unless for a cause, you only get one shot at it.

And by the way, Chris and Alisyn, this is why I think that the Comey situation is good for both because I don't think any minds are being changed. I've been talking about this on the radio, taking phone calls and seeing what people think. It's energizing each of their bases, but I've really yet to hear from that voter who says it has changed my mind.

CAMEROTA: You know, Michael, Chris and I were just talking about this yesterday. We've never seen an election -- and maybe you can weigh in on this -- where there are so many so-called controversies, one after another. I mean, the news cycle in this election is dizzying. And, you know, from the Billy Bush tape to Anthony Weiner's laptop. I mean, two sort of different sex scandals, to different emails controversies, Russia connections. Every day there's something.

I mean, have voters just had to sort of turn it off at some point, and the things that would have disqualified somebody or wildly swayed an election are just not counting this time around?

SMERCONISH: I think that's absolutely true, and that's why there's a week left on the clock and I'd be the last one to say it's over. I am not going to say that because who knows what's to come? Just a few days ago if we -- while we did have this conversation we never could have foreseen that we would be talking about FBI Director Comey's letter and that which came forward on Friday. I think part of it is attributable to the 24/7 cycle. Everything gets covered, we don't miss a beat. But also, it's just an unusual election.

CAMEROTA: Yes, it is. You can take that to the bank from Michael Smerconish. Michael, thank you very much. Great to talk to you.

SMERCONISH: See you, guys.

CAMEROTA: All right, Iraqi forces are now at Mosul's doorstep. The Pentagon says the fight against ISIS is going as planned, but Donald Trump calls it a total disaster. Which one is right? We take you to the front lines of the fight, next.

[07:45:10] (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CAMEROTA: For every day that's left in this race, here at NEW DAY we want to examine the candidate's different positions on issues that are important to you. Today, we look at terrorism. So, Pentagon leaders say that the campaign to retake Mosul from ISIS is proceeding as planned and, so far, ISIS is losing.

But Donald Trump disagrees. He continues to say that officials are sharing too much operational information.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: About three months ago, I started reading that they want to get the leaders and they're going to attack Mosul. Whatever happened to the element of surprise, OK? If you look at what's happening, much tougher than they thought. Much, much tougher. Much more dangerous. There's going to be more deaths than they thought. But the leaders that we wanted to get are all gone because they're smart.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAMEROTA: OK.

[07:50:00] CUOMO: All right. Anyway, when it comes to fighting terrorism, Donald Trump places a very high value on secrecy, promising to bomb the hell out of ISIS and the oil fields the terror group controls. That's OK to say. How he's going to do it, he says, need to be kept secret. That's a great defense to specifics because he won't reveal any details of his plan. He once said that he had a secret plan that he came up with, but that seems to have faded away. CAMEROTA: OK. So despite saying, in the past, that he knows more about ISIS than the generals, Trump has said on day one of his presidency he will convene his top military officials and give them 30 days to submit a plan to defeat ISIS.

CUOMO: Trump has also said the U.S. should focus on taking down ISIS rather than toppling Assad's regime in Syria, suggesting the U.S. military would benefit from working with the Russians.

CAMEROTA: All right, so let's look at Hillary Clinton's positions on this. She has a different approach, naturally, when it comes to Russia and support for Assad. Here's hers.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Syria will remain a hotbed of terrorism as long as the civil war aided and abetted by the Iranians and the Russians continue. I'm going to continue to push for a no-fly zone and safe havens within Syria, not only to help protect the Syrians and prevent the constant outflow of refugees but to, frankly, gain some leverage on both the Syrian government and the Russians.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAMEROTA: So, you heard her there. She has a proposal for a no-fly zone which stands, actually, in contrast to the Obama administration and beyond that. She has a three-point strategy for defeating ISIS. She says that it reflects her current policy.

CUOMO: But people may be surprised that Trump always talks about being strong but, really, Clinton is, by disposition, my hawkish than he. Her plan involves crushing ISIS on its own turf by intensifying airstrikes, disrupting the terror network on the ground and online, and hardening the U.S. state's defenses at home.

CAMEROTA: Clinton has also said that putting any troops on the ground in Syria is "off the table". Trump said, in March, that he would deploy up to 30,000 Americans to fight ISIS, if necessary.

All right, so now, let's get to the current battle in the war on ISIS. Iraqi forces are reaching the outskirts of Mosul. The country's prime minister promising to "chop the head off the snake of ISIS".

CNN senior international correspondent Arwa Damon is live near Mosul with the facts from the front lines.

ARWA DAMON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: And just take a look at the weather. Before, you could see a few streets down on the horizon behind us. Now, there is a sandstorm that is sweeping in and this is what the battlefield looks like. This is what, on the ground, the war against ISIS looks like.

What is behind us is the town of Gogjali which is less than one mile away from the outskirts of Mosul. And we are with the country's U.S.- trained elite counterterrorism units. Throughout the course of the day there have been sporadic clashes, artillery exchanges of fire, rockets, and the ongoing buzz overhead of fighter jets.

What ISIS does tend to do is circle around and send small pockets of its fighters to try to then counterattack. This has also been happening throughout the day. And the visibility now -- of course, the impairment of it is going to add an extra layer of challenge and difficulty because already it was difficult to see because ISIS has been burning these oil lines around the outskirts of Mosul.

Because of the ongoing airstrikes, the challenge they're facing here is that it's only going to be amplified, Chris, once they actually get to the city of Mosul is the civilian population. That makes calling airstrikes and all that more difficult.

CUOMO: That is scary, especially with that added problem of visibility. Arwa, please stay safe and thank you for the reporting.

So, for weeks, Donald Trump has been saying the situation in Mosul is "a total disaster". How does he know that? Well, we're not really sure, but many military experts disagree, including our next guest.

Joining us is the former dean of the Army War College, retired Colonel Jeffrey McCausland. It's good to see you, sir. Thank you for being with us. I was watching your face while we were going through the competing points from these two candidates --

COL. JEFFREY MCCAUSLAND, U.S. ARMY (RET.), FORMER DEAN, ARMY WAR COLLEGE: Yes.

CUOMO: -- about what to do and the summation of Donald Trump that what's going on in Mosul is a total disaster. You winced -- why?

MCCAUSLAND: Well, first of all, because I watched Arwa Damon in that sandstorm. Having sat through sandstorms in Iraq, it is just virtually impossible to do anything. But back to the point of the matter about Mosul, it is so far, at least by all reports I've seen, the advance on Mosul is progressing fairly well -- fairly as expected.

Having said that, I think it's important, Chris, to emphasize military success in Mosul is one thing. What really has to happen is a political success, and that is up to the Iraqi government to establish governance in the aftermath. So we'll wait to see about that. But so far, at least, it does seems to be progressing well.

And this whole notion that Mr. Trump has advocated that we can achieve strategic surprise, as I've said a couple of times, is just not possible nor is it necessarily the proper way to go in terms of military strategy.

[07:55:00] CUOMO: Now, when he is criticized for his understanding of the military he says you know, I have a hundred or more former commanders and generals, and people who are fighting today who back me. Does that give confidence to his position?

MCCAUSLAND: Somewhat, I guess, it does. But at the same time, it's been worrisome for a guy like me who's been working in this area for the last 45 years. That back in August we saw 80 people that I've known for years -- really the brain trust of the Republican Party and national security affairs. People like Michael Chertoff, Tom Ridge, Brent Scowcroft, Eliot Cohen, the senior advisor to Mr. Cheney when he was vice president -- all repudiate Trump and say he is, in fact, not qualified to be President of the United States.

CUOMO: Surprise -- he's talked about Patton and MacArthur rolling in their graves --

MCCAUSLAND: Sure.

CUOMO: -- because we just say everything that we're going to do before we do it. You disagree.

MCCAUSLAND: I totally disagree because there's a political imperative around the attack on Mosul, as well as a military imperative. You know, there's an old strategist widely quoted, Carl von Clausewitz. "War is politics by other means." So, for the Iraqi government, there was a political imperative from the very onset to say we're going to liberate the second-largest city in our country now occupied by ISIS for two years, and say that repeatedly. And, oh, by the way, 99.9 percent of the forces involved are Iraqi.

Back to the historical metaphor. By the spring of 1944, the Germans knew we were going to invade France -- it didn't take a genius -- and they were, in fact, preparing beach defenses correspondingly. In the Pacific, in the spring of 1945, the Japanese clearly understood we were going to go after Okinawa and Iwo Jima and they fortified those two particular islands, not unlike ISIS is doing.

Then the other part of the equation is we may have up to one million civilians in that particular city. So we've dropped millions of leaflets in that city to do a couple of things -- reassure them they are going to be liberated. Give them some guidance on what they can do to protect themselves and their families because it's imperative -- back to that political solution -- that we limit collateral damage to the maximum extent possible.

You know, it's really sad, Chris. We have a very macabre comparison possible here. We don't want Mosul to look like Aleppo.

CUOMO: Right, right. And you know what -- and people still don't know what Aleppo looks like. And one of the things that's going to happen immediately after this election is you're going to see us getting over there and showing what life's like on the ground and how much harder the war, the day after the military part ends, is than what's even going on right now.

Lastly, oil. One of the things that gave Trump traction early on was saying I've been saying we should have taken the oil and that would have cut off ISIS' money supply. And I would have sent in a group of people -- a small little group -- small little group -- not a big deal -- and all the oil would have been ours. You disagree on several fronts. Why?

MCCAUSLAND: I totally disagree. First of all, that is illegal under international law to loot a country in the aftermath of war. And I dare say the vast majority of military officers would have refused those orders.

CUOMO: He says it used to be the winner got the spoils.

MCCAUSLAND: It was back in the 15th century and before that -- back in futile times. But in modern times, with the advent of international law, that is no longer the case. But even putting that aside and the potential for a crisis of civil-military relations, just how many soldiers would it take to secure the Iraqi oil fields? Does anybody really imagine that the Iraqi population of 26 million people are going to stand idly by while their country is being looted of the only major resource they have?

And even if you can secure those oil fields, notwithstanding how many casualties you're going to take, how many additional troops is it going to take to secure the oil pipelines so you can get that oil someplace that it's going to be exported? We had an unbelievably difficult time doing that in support of the Iraqis while we were there, as we were trying to get that oil out in terms of recovering the Iraqi economy.

CUOMO: Colonel McCausland, thank you very much for your service to the country and to the show. Look forward to continuing the conversation.

MCCAUSLAND: Chris, a great pleasure.

CUOMO: Appreciate it, sir.

There is a lot of news going on in this election, and there's a very serious situation -- two buses just crashed in Baltimore. We have the latest. Let's get to it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLINTON: A lot of you may be asking what this new email story is about.

TRUMP: Thank you, Huma. Thank you, Anthony Weiner.

CLINTON: There is no case.

ROBBY MOOK, CLINTON CAMPAIGN MANAGER: These are not the hallmarks of a responsible investigation.

TRUMP: I have to give the FBI credit. It took a lot of guts.

CAMEROTA: One U.S. senator's shocking comments caught on tape.

SEN. RICHARD BURR (R), NORTH CAROLINA: I was a little bit shocked at that -- it didn't have a bullseye on it.

CLINTON: This is one of those make or break moments.

TRUMP: To all Americans, I say it is time for real leadership.

CLINTON: It truly is in your hands. (END VIDEO CLIP)

ANNOUNCER: This is NEW DAY with Chris Cuomo and Alisyn Camerota.

CAMEROTA: Good morning, everyone. Welcome to your NEW DAY.

Up first, a blatant double standard. That's what the Clinton campaign calls the FBI's surprise announcement of that probe into Huma Abedin's emails. Clinton says "there's no case here" while the FBI director is digging in on his decision.

CUOMO: And what a different a day makes. Yesterday, it was all about the emails. Now, Donald Trump's campaign's got problems -- new problems. OK, he didn't pay his taxes but how did he get around paying his taxes? "The New York Times" says maybe he did it in a way that was cheating -- new reports.