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How Can Campaigns Drive Voter Turnout?; Melania Trump: Our Culture "Too Mean And Too Rough"; Demographics Have Shifted Along I-4 Since 2012; Campaigns Focusing On Florida & North Carolina; Early Voting: Black Vote Down, Latinos Up In FL & NC. Aired 7:30-8a ET

Aired November 04, 2016 - 07:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[07:30:04] KEVIN MADDEN, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Donald Trump hasn't done that. What he did is, essentially, outsource his organization to the RNC. So, you know, the difference, as Dan will tell you, having a DNC and a Clinton organization that both built very impressive infrastructures versus the RNC's impressive infrastructure, but not much of one from Trump, that does provide --

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: So --

MADDEN: That does provide a bit of an advantage.

CAMEROTA: So, you -- does that cause you concern today, four days out?

MADDEN: It does, but I think one of the things that's happened is that in these last few days as Donald Trump has begun to stay on message, and we have a seen a contrast on the issue of Obamacare premium spikes, and we have seen the FBI investigation start to impact voter opinions about Hillary Clinton, that intensity and momentum are on Donald Trump's side.

So I think the RNC because they have this -- they have built this infrastructure, they can now take advantage of that momentum with that -- with that ground game they have built.

CAMEROTA: OK. So, Dan, I'm so struck by the juxtaposition of the sort of low-tech/high-tech combo, you know. They have all those sophisticated maps and all the scientific data that you're saying, and then yesterday President Obama was actually at the podium reading out the addresses of the polling places. Just, you know, telling people write this down, this is where you've got to. So, four days out, if you were running Hillary Clinton's ground game, what would you be doing today?

DAN PFEIFFER, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR,OBAMA: I think it's doing exactly what they're doing. Marlon Marshall, who is running Hillary Clinton's ground game, helped do that for President Obama in 2012. He's one of the best in the business. They have hired a lot of the people who came up through our organization out there.

But it is -- you -- especially in these early voting states you hit these people every single time. You knock their doors, you call them. They will eventually say leave me alone. Your answer is the best -- you want to get off our list, go vote. Because, you know, every day they get the list of who voted they get crossed off and you stop calling those people. So, it is just a massive sprint for these last few days here, just hammering it home with tremendous intensity.

CAMEROTA: All right. Dan, Kevin, thank you very much --

PFEIFFER: Good to be with you.

CAMEROTA: -- for sharing all of those secrets. Stay with CNN for special all-day election coverage on Tuesday. We'll have every race and every result covered for you.

CHRIS CUOMO, CNN ANCHOR: Melania Trump back out on the hustings. She's got a new crusade. She's vowing to fight online bullies if she becomes first lady.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MELANIA TRUMP, WIFE OF DONALD TRUMP: Our culture has gotten too mean and too rough.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CUOMO: But should her efforts start at home with her own husband? We'll discuss, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[07:36:25] CUOMO: Melania Trump back on the trail. Her first solo appearance since, I guess, right around the convention, and she has a new crusade. Trump's wife says social media culture is just too mean and she vows to fight cyberbullying if she becomes first lady. Interestingly, she did not mention a renowned cyberbully, her husband. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Tweeting happens to be a modern day form of communication. I'm not unproud of it, to be honest with you.

M. TRUMP: But like anything that is powerful it can have a bad side.

D. TRUMP: She's on her Twitter ad. She's a goofus. She is a goofus.

Jeb attacked me the other day and all I did was did a little tweet.

M. TRUMP: We have to find a better way to talk to each other.

D. TRUMP: My biggest problems are repeats and retweets. I don't get in a problem with what I say, it's when I repeat something else.

ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: Well, maybe that's one of those things you should learn from your behavior --

D. TRUMP: I think I'm going to be careful. COOPER: -- and not retweet things.

D. TRUMP: You're right, you're right.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CUOMO: All right, let's discuss with CNN political commentator and Donald Trump supporter, Scottie Nell Hughes. And, CNN political commentator and former special adviser to President Obama, Van Jones, a Hillary Clinton supporter.

Nobody will disagree with the message that Melania Trump put out. Social media is a toxic crucible of negativity. It's got to change. It's hurting our kids, it's hurting everybody -- agreed, agreed, agreed. The weird part is why did the campaign put Melania in this position where the obvious reaction was going to be if you're so worried about what people do on social media, tell your husband to stop destroying people for good, bad, or no reason on social media?

SCOTTIE NELL HUGHES, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, we might agree that there's a problem right now. We agree with it but there's not --

CUOMO: No question.

HUGHES: -- there's no question, but there's not been a spotlight put on him. Yesterday, I think it was actually a very wonderful and articulate conversation that Melania Trump started by putting that spotlight on it that we need to actually have some action on it as American families across the world are dealing with this, whether they're in New York, Florida, California. So I think the fact that she put the spotlight on making this priority that effects every single American is a very good thing.

On the other hand, Mr. Trump has a right to defend himself. Name me a time when Mr. Trump went after somebody random who never had attacked him first.

CUOMO: Every bully -- every bully says that.

VAN JONES, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: The Central Park Five -- the Central Park Five.

HUGHES: No, no, he didn't -- he never mentioned them in that article. He never mentioned them, specifically, in the article.

JONES: Hold it --

HUGHES: No, we're going to stick with facts here.

CUOMO: All right, but hold on, hold on, hold on.

JONES: Oh, my God.

CUOMO: Let me reset the table because you don't have to go back that far. Everybody who takes a shot at somebody feels that they're justified. This is about, to quote Melania Trump, how we disagree -- how we disagree. You and I, you and Van, Van and I can all disagree. You will never hear me speak to you online or in person the way he does with people he doesn't agree with. And why, because of decorum, because of my sense of decency, because what I think my position requires.

He does not agree with those evaluations. His way -- and we all know it. Put up some of his tweets. This is not theoretical.

HUGHES: You might -- but here's the thing.

CUOMO: His is if you say something I don't like, Scottie, I'm going to go at everything about you that I can that will make you feel bad about yourself.

HUGHES: You might not like the response.

CUOMO: Megyn Kelly.

HUGHES: You might not like his response but he still has the right to do it. And for -- time and time again --

CUOMO: Look, just because you have the right does not make it right --

HUGHES: Well --

CUOMO: -- and we know that. We're talking about whether it's right or not to do it. Megyn Kelly -- I'm not going to call her a bimbo. That wouldn't be politically correct. But I will say -- you just did call her a bimbo. It's bullying -- that's cyberbullying.

HUGHES: No, but let's look at this. We teach our children don't hit the first punch but make sure you defend yourself when you're hit. You might not look how he did it. He has that right and time and time again it's an old playbook of the left to Republican candidates. I've seen them just destroyed, battered, left right, left right. He decided, you know what, I'm going to stop this now. I'm going to be a leader. I'm going to fight for myself.

JONES: Yes, but --

[07:40:00] CUOMO: What, three days ago? Van, go ahead.

HUGHES: I'm going to fight for my family, fight for America.

JONES: I think everybody knows that if you had a kid that behaved the way Donald Trump behaved, you would be very, very disappointed in that kid and you'd put him in timeout.

But I want to talk about something else. We have gotten to the place where no good deed goes unpunished. Melania Trump did not marry a politician, she married a businessperson. She got thrown into this when he made a decision and she stepped out on that stage -- a bigger stage than you've been on, than I've been on -- and she got burned because her staff didn't keep her from reading a speech that was not the right speech for you. If you wanted to find some inspiration in this campaign, the fact that she has come back out -- the fact that she has found a way to be a part of the conversation and is talking about something relevant, though it's bizarre from a campaign point of view. From a personal point of view I think you could find some inspiration for her resilience.

CUOMO: Oh, absolutely. Look, I think that the -- the truth from the beginning has been it's not about Melania Trump. She's doing everything that she's asked to do and she's doing it well, probably better than some people who don't know her expected. I'm just saying it's just such an incongruous message with the reality of the candidate.

HUGHES: But it's --

JONES: That I agree with. And, you know, I just don't think that we should adapt to the absurdity and begin lowering our standards left, right, or otherwise. We all know that Donald Trump has not conducted himself in the way that you would want a leader to do.

CUOMO: You know what this test is, Scottie? Consistently, you and all of us, we have this conversation. The easy question is would you say that, would you do that, and the answer's always no, I wouldn't. I wouldn't choose to do that but he has the right. He's who he is. Right, but it's just an odd thing for her to say we've got to be nicer to each other when he has set a standard the lowest we've ever seen in our lifetimes for a presidential election.

HUGHES: It's never the wrong time to do the right thing. I think that goes off of the cliche you just said. And I think if there's anybody who has suffered, she -- after what Van has just said -- she suffered bullying. She has seen it. She has seen it with her own family, probably to her own children and to her husband. And so why not start that conversation?

Why not sit there and begin to go forward instead of continuing and focusing on the past and issues that he's had in the past as not a politician? And he might not like saying it. He might not like the fact how he counterpunched, but he did have to defend himself and that's his right. That is what he wanted to do. I think he's learned from some of the mistakes and you've not seen them repeated in the future.

JONES: Well, the past several days he's been OK. But I've got to tell you, when it takes you 18 months to learn that not shooting yourself in the face every day might help your campaign, that is a very slow learning curve and I would be afraid of a commander in chief that took him 18 months to figure out not to accidentally start wars and stuff like that.

HUGHES: But when it comes down it, it's about what are you more upset about when you go push that button? Is it the words of somebody or the actions of the other? I think that's what the American voter is being put to. The words of Donald Trump versus the actions -- instead of calling national security. JONES: The wonderful actions of Hillary Clinton.

HUGHES: He had to get your plug in.

CUOMO: Well, all we know is this. Over 80 percent of people -- I think 85 percent -- say they are disgusted with this race, and there's reason for that. Thank you, both.

HUGHES: Thank you.

CUOMO: Alisyn --

CAMEROTA: It just went up to 86. All right, meanwhile, after a terrorist detonated a bomb in New York City in September, two of New York's finest had the near-impossible task of trying to control the panic and the chaos. Our Brooke Baldwin spoke with the men who went beyond the call of duty.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

So, we know that New York is a -- it's a target, but you don't put your uniform on every day thinking that today might be -- there might be an explosion.

BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN ANCHOR: NYPD officers Van Sandrowski (ph) and John Campanella were on routine patrol on a Saturday night in September when they saw the explosion that shook New York City's Chelsea neighborhood.

OFFICER JOHN CAMPANELLA, NY POLICE DEPARMENT: We say the explosion go off. Yeah, we were pretty much like half a block away. At that point we knew we had to do something.

BALDWIN: So where were you guys when you pulled up?

At the scene their first priority was helping the injured.

SANDROWSKI: So, I just saw blood on their clothes and they were just hysterical. I tried to calm them down and say help is on the way, help is coming.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Everybody get off the street.

BALDWIN: Fifteen minutes later police found another exploded device several blocks away. It, like the first device, was filled with shrapnel and built from pressure cookers and flip phones. In press conferences to come, officials would call the Chelsea blast intentional and an act of terror.

GOV. ANDREW CUOMO (D), NEW YORK: A bomb exploding in New York is, obviously, an act of terrorism.

CAMPANELLA: And that was probably the scariest part, which is not knowing if there's a second bomb.

BALDWIN: An explosion goes off and it's your job to go towards it. CAMPANELLA: Yes.

BALDWIN: Does that ever make you nervous or you know that's your job?

CAMPANELLA: We know it's our job.

BALDWIN: And so, that dumpster from the explosion flew across the street.

SANDROWSKI: Launched -- it launched right over there, yeah. Even to this day, some of the windows are blown out. You can see it's cracked over there --

BALDWIN: Yes.

SANDROWSKI: -- in that.

BALDWIN: Oh, wow, yes.

Despite the damage, by Sunday morning all of the injured were released from the hospital.

[07:45:00] (Gunshots)

By Monday, following a frantic manhunt and shootout in New Jersey, Ahmad Khan Ramadi was arrested in connection with the explosion, and Campanella and Sandrowski were back at work protecting a city that's still on edge.

Why do you put that uniform on every day?

CAMPANELLA: Whatever I can do, if I can help them, that's what I want. That's what I want to do.

SANDROWSKI: It's in my blood, it's in my heart. I want to be there and I want to help people. I think that day we did help. We helped out a lot.

BALDWIN: Brooke Baldwin, CNN.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CAMEROTA: You know, that is a fascinating report because I have wondered. You know, we always say oh, thank goodness nobody was killed, thank goodness. But people were injured and so I have wondered what the scene was like when so many people were injured, and that was a good insight into it. Thank you, Brooke.

CUOMO: Those are the men and women who run toward the trouble every time it happens.

So, the election, the campaigns, it's all come down to just a handful of counties in a handful of states and the one you're going to hear talked about the most is North Carolina. What is that state about? What could make it swing either way? Answers ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[07:50:15] CUOMO: The battlegrounds -- so what are we looking at? Florida, once again, is going to be down to the wire but you're hearing a little bit more about North Carolina, and what you're hearing is negative everywhere -- attacks ads -- and here's why.

We've got CNN Poll of Polls showing Trump and Clinton in Florida, specifically, tied. And what works best in politics? Negativity, especially with those voters along the I-4 corridor and that's where we find CNN's Boris Sanchez, live in St. Petersburg, Florida with more. Good morning.

BORIS SANCHEZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hey, good morning, Chris. Yes, the I-4 corridor -- you hear so much about it. It's really not a huge stretch of land. It only takes about two hours to get across the whole thing. But, politically, it is huge. About 40 percent of Florida's registered voters live on the I-4 corridor. And as we've seen in the past, so goes the I-4 corridor, so goes Florida and, potentially, so goes the election.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SANCHEZ: If the road to the White House goes through Florida then that road is this one, Interstate 4. The 140-mile coast-to-coast highway across central Florida has become the state's center of political gravity. It's Florida's I-4 corridor and it starts along the East Coast here in Daytona Beach where a rise in the number of registered Republicans has turned the once reliably blue Volusia County purple.

To tilt it back in her column, the Clinton campaign is targeting African-Americans.

REP. JOHN LEWIS (D), GEORGIA: Go out and vote like we've never voted before. Can we do it?

CROWD: Yes.

LEWIS: Yes, let's do it.

I feel good about seeing all of the young people here and it reminded me of another period during the early days of the Civil Rights Movement. They know their lessons, they know their stories. They're going to turn out to vote.

SANCHEZ: Further west on I-4 there are traditionally redder areas, like Sanford, in Seminole County. Donald Trump and his surrogates have made more than a dozen appearances along the I-4 corridor since the convention. They're hoping to surpass Mitt Romney's already solid win here in 2012 by riling up a base frustrated with Washington.

ANNE HAYLER, SANFORD, FL TRUMP SUPPORTER: This is a movement. This is an incredible movement of the people of the United States who want integrity restored to the government.

SANCHEZ: Our next stop is Orlando and it's the biggest city on the I- 4 corridor. It's also one that, in recent years, has changed dramatically.

SUSAN MACMANUS, POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR, UNIVERSITY SOUTH FLORIDA: The message in Orlando is more ethnic focus, especially Latino voters and, especially, the Puerto Ricans.

SANCHEZ: With a large influx of Democratic-leaning Puerto Rican voters moving to Orlando in recent years the Clinton campaign is vying for their vote.

CLINTON T.V. AD: Donald Trump (foreign language spoken).

SANCHEZ: I-4's evolving political landscape continues west of Orlando. While there have been major demographic changes to our last stop, Tampa, these changes aren't among ethnic lines, they're actually among generational ones.

While the west coast of Florida was once a haven for retirees, now about one-half the registered voters here are younger than 50.

IDA WRIGHT, VOLUSIA COUNTY SCHOOL BOARD MEMBER: With so many colleges and universities that reside on the I-4 corridor, that's going to be the changing -- the game changer for either candidate.

SANCHEZ: With the race so close as we approach the finish line how the candidates do on I-4 could define the election.

MACMANUS: It's the most competitive part of Florida. It's the swing part of the swing state. Highway to heaven or hell, depending on whether you win or not.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SANCHEZ: All eyes are going to be on Tampa on election night, specifically Hillsborough County because it is a great predictor -- a great bellwether for elections. It has correctly predicted 19 of the past 20 campaigns -- Alisyn and Chris.

CAMEROTA: OK, Boris, great piece. Thanks so much for all of that reporting.

We are just four days away -- I don't know if we've mentioned that yet -- from Election Day, so we can think of no better time to bring in CNN political analyst David Gregory and CNN senior political analyst and senior editor for "The Atlantic", Ron Brownstein. Guys, great to talk to you.

David Gregory, let me start with you. How do you characterize the state of the race today?

DAVID GREGORY, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, I think it's still in Clinton's favor, more marginally. I think what the biggest factor we've seen is not only a negative for her about the emails but, also, the consolidation for Trump where Republicans are coming home. And it's not only some more disciplined on his part, but --

[07:55:00] You know, I was reminded this morning about why more conventional Republicans might come to his side. Think about taxes and spending, for one thing. Hillary Clinton's going to raise taxes so there's a lot of Republicans who are going to say yes, I may not like certain things about Trump but that's going to be a big issue for me. So I think some of that consolidation is helping, but I still think she has the advantage, especially if you see her tick up again after the blow she took last Friday from the email issue.

CUOMO: Ron Brownstein, what's your prediction for the next few days? My prediction, pain. No, in terms of where they're going to put their emphasis and why. What do you see?

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST, SENIOR EDITOR, "THE ATLANTIC": Well look, I mean, Clinton has core perimeter, right? She has 273 electoral college votes that they are counting on the most. States like North Carolina, Florida, and Nevada are essentially -- and Ohio and Iowa, which are less likely -- where she's less likely to win.

That's the insurance in case she loses any states in those core perimeter and she may need that insurance. I mean, particularly in New Hampshire, the polling has tightened up significantly in the process David described with voters moving from -- Republicans voters moving back from Gary Johnson to Donald Trump. So you're left with -- she made need one of these insurances and North Carolina and Nevada are probably her best bets right now if she loses one of the core states she's counting on to get her past 270.

CAMEROTA: OK, let's look at Florida first, OK, because that doesn't look like it's an insurance policy --

BROWNSTEIN: Right.

CAMEROTA: -- with the latest polls. This is CNN Poll of Polls of Florida. It is exactly tied.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

CAMEROTA: Clinton, 45, Trump, 45. David Gregory, what do you think is going to happen here in Florida?

GREGORY: Well, one of the things that the Clinton team is looking at in both Florida and North Carolina, which I know we'll talk about, is the Hispanic vote, which they view as really the key part of their coalition in the minority voters if there's a soft turnout among African-Americans. Hispanic turnout and enthusiasm is much higher according to the Democratic pollsters I've talked to than it was in 2012.

They look for that to be a decisive factor on Election Day in Florida, where you not only have the traditional Hispanic constituencies, you have more Puerto Ricans who have moved to the state because of economic factors in Puerto Rico. That can be very important. And, the rise in North Carolina -- the Hispanic vote as a percent -- on a percentage basis is higher than anywhere in the country. I think that's, really, what they -- what she considers a firewall in terms of her coalition. CUOMO: How real is these -- are these kind of -- Ron, these kind of suggestions of how people are based on who they are?

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

CUOMO: That, you know, Latinos are minorities and African-Americans are minorities so, you know, let's look at them the same way. Or college education and un-college educated, you know, let's look at them very differently. How true are those assumptions?

BROWNSTEIN: Well look, you know, the groups are not identical but the divergence among the groups may be bigger in this election than ever before. Donald Trump, as we've said before, is on track to run as well among white voters without a college education, potentially, as Ronald Reagan in 1984.

He's facing more resistance among college whites than any Republican nominee in the history of polling. He's potentially facing a record gap among Hispanics. And, of course, all Republicans usually have big gaps among African-Americans. So any change in the composition of the electorate has a huge impact on the results.

And if you're talking about North Carolina or Florida it really is the same equation, to a large extent, which is the Democrats are counting on improvements relative to '12 among college whites and Latinos to offset some signs that African-Americans may not be turning out at the same rate in both states. That's going to be the equation that really decides how North Carolina and Florida come down at the end of the day.

CAMEROTA: David, let's look at something notable that's happening in both Florida and North Carolina, and that is the increase, significant, in the Independent early voting. So let me pull this up for you. Early voting in Florida, 2016 versus 2008, Republicans are basically steady -- hold on, that's by race. We'll get to the Independents in a moment. Republicans, you'll see, are steady. Democrats -- early voting has gone down a little bit and Independents have gone from 12.4 to 16.6 percent. What could that mean, David?

GREGORY: Well, a lot of the polling that I've seen, Donald Trump runs pretty well among Independents. This is where his change message and kind of anti-corruption of D.C. message, I think, plays very well with people who feel totally disaffected with the political process and feel kind of left out of the political process. So I think that looms, potentially, large.

And again, coming back to more conventional messages as a Republican, to the extent that Independents or lapsed Republicans could bear some fruit for him.

CUOMO: David, Ron, thank you very much. Appreciate it, as always.

CAMEROTA: Thanks, guys.

We're following a lot of new this morning so let's get right to it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: America will have a new president. It will either be me or my opponent.

D. TRUMP: We are the movement of the future.

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I-VT), FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: This campaign is not a personality contest. We're not voting for high school president.

M. TRUMP: We have to find a better way to talk to each other, to disagree with each other, to respect each other.

CLINTON: What kind of change are we going to have?

D. TRUMP: Just remember, the system is rigged.

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We've got work to do to finish what we started eight years ago.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANNOUNCER: This is NEW DAY with Chris Cuomo and Alisyn Camerota.

CUOMO: Good morning, welcome to your NEW DAY.