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Clinton & Trump Battle Into Election Day; The Path To 270; Big Latino Turnout In Early Voting States; Could Trump's Attacks On Latinos Hurt Him At The Polls? Aired 7:30-8a ET

Aired November 08, 2016 - 07:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[07:30:00] CHRIS CUOMO, CNN ANCHOR: Everything stinks, America's never been in worse shape, and I can fix it. And hers has been, largely, look at this guy. He can't be president. So how do you expect people to be anywhere but like this?

ABBY PHILLIP, REPORTER, "THE WASHINGTON POST": Yes. Never, I think, has a Republican nominee or, really, any presidential nominee been vilified the way that Donald Trump has been vilified in this election, and the Clinton campaign is responsible for that. I mean, they have set this guy up as a boogeyman and his supporters as --

CUOMO: His mouth has done a lot of the work, also.

PHILLIP: That's true, but --

CUOMO: I give him like 70 percent of the credit.

PHILLIP: The point is that there are going to be a lot of people who cast ballots for Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton is going to have to reach out to them in a way that is vastly different from the way it's been done up until this point. There are people who agree with Donald Trump on the core --

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes.

PHILLIP: -- tenets of his candidacy.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

PHILLIPS: Democrats have to -- have to reconcile.

BROWNSTEIN: And that will be a challenge for Republicans, as well, because a lot of the Republican leaders in Congress don't agree with those core tenets.

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: Great. Panel, thank you very much. Great to get all of your insights here.

CUOMO: This is just the beginning. We have, I think, 17 states opened up now.

CAMEROTA: I think so, this hour.

CUOMO: Millions of people getting to exercise the franchise of the vote, but there's a lot more to go. We will have every count in every state covered the way only CNN can. And guess what? Let's party a little early tomorrow. Three a.m. Eastern we'll be showing up here, going through nine because it may not be over everywhere yet.

CAMEROTA: All-nighter for us.

CUOMO: Woo-hoo.

CAMEROTA: Woo. After endless campaigning and a frenetic Eleventh Hour push, who has the edge today? We walk through the 270 map with David Gregory and get a sense of the state of the race from Michael Smerconish, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[07:36:00] CUOMO: All right. The polls are open in Pennsylvania for a half hour now. Both campaigns holding closing rallies in that battleground state last night.

We have CNN's Miguel Marquez live from Pittsburgh with more. What a battle that state is expected to be. What's the action?

MIGUEL MARQUEZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, we're actually just south of Pittsburgh in North Strabane in Washington County. This is Trump country and it looks more like a busy airport this morning than a polling station. This is the township center in North Strabane.

The line snakes around that way inside, and then, like an airport, it snakes all the way into where they're voting in there. We probably have 150 people. Who do you think he's voting for? I'm not entirely sure. It's a very subtle sort of message he's sending this morning. But the line snakes all the way back here. There's only six machines in there so they are getting through there fairly quickly, but it is taking probably a half hour or so.

People very, very motivated. This is a county that Donald Trump must do very, very well in. It's a place where Hillary Clinton actually has an office. Romney beat Obama in 2012 here. Clinton wants to be somewhat competitive here. Trump needs to be very competitive in these counties. He needs to win them huge and he also needs to stay up with Hillary Clinton in those urban areas.

Polls just opened at 7:00. No early voting here. They close at 8:00 p.m. We will know the winner then -- Alisyn.

CAMEROTA: OK, Miguel, thanks so much for that.

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton barnstorming key states in the final hours last night. So, which states does each candidate need to win to reach that magical 270 number?

CNN political analyst David Gregory is here to break down the numbers. David, what are you seeing?

DAVID GREGORY, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, a couple of things to look at. First of all, where did they end their final rallies? It tells us something about what they're thinking.

For Hillary Clinton -- who, remember, is already on our map at 268 so she's very close to getting to that magic number -- she ended her night in Pennsylvania. Why? That's really a firewall for her. If she can shut Trump down there she really doesn't need some of these other swing states that we're talking about. If she can hold there, that's a key part of that blue wall and prevents him from building that momentum in the Midwest -- it's important.

She's also spending time in North Carolina. You've got that surge of Latino voting. Highest percentage increase of Latino voters in North Carolina. Back in Philadelphia, it's minority votes. It's also college-educated whites, which we'll talk just a little bit more about in just a moment.

For Donald Trump, look where he ended in Michigan. Why? He thinks working-class white voters and a surge of those voters could surprise people and give him a path to victory and might say something about his ability to dominate this region overall. He may need that as insurance if he can't pick up all these other swing states, as well as holding the Romney states that you go back to 2012 and look at.

A couple of things that we'll look for in a couple of states that I think are interesting, if we go to the map. Let's go to our national map and let's go to Florida. As these returns come in and you're coming home from work and you start to watch county-by-county, there's a couple of things to look at.

What are we talking about in the surge, potentially, of Hispanic voters? This plays so big in a state like Florida. You're going to look at Miami -- Miami-Dade County. This is huge. Why? Look at the margins in 2012, 62 to 38 for Barack Obama. You're going to look to see if Hillary Clinton is performing at that level -- maybe even overperforming when you look at that.

If we go back -- we're still in Florida -- we look in the Orlando area. That's Orange County -- similar situation. A lot of Central American voters. Puerto Ricans who have moved to Florida -- they could be part of that Latino surge. Again, you look at the margins in 2012 for Barack Obama, 59 to 40. That's huge. You're going to look for similar numbers.

I won't show it on the map -- we're running short on time. Pennsylvania is one where you talk about Chester County, one of those collar counties in Pennsylvania. Narrowly won, actually, by Mitt Romney in 2012. That's going to be a sign as we look at Chester County. I could think about it and it shows up, 50 to 49 for Romney. This is a Republican area. If Donald Trump can't win here, that portends a difficult time for him to win a state like Pennsylvania. We look for that as the polls close tonight.

[07:40:00] CAMEROTA: That's how at one you are with the magic wall.

GREGORY: I feel it, I really do.

CAMEROTA: You now just think it, David. CUOMO: Telekinesis.

CAMEROTA: Impressive. Thank you very much. So where does the race stand today, on Election Day? Michael Smerconish is the host of CNN's "SMERCONISH". He's a CNN political commentator and the host of "The Michael Smerconish Program" on Sirius XM.

Michael, can you believe we're here today?

CUOMO: Also, remember where you are, Michael. Remind people why we call you Mr. Pennsylvania.

MICHAEL SMERCONISH, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Listen, my wife voted in those Philadelphia suburbs. At ten minutes to seven she was in line. It was already 50 to 70 deep. I'm usually in that line first and it's 10 deep, so the interest is tremendous as you might expect.

CAMEROTA: OK. So, what do -- what strikes you today? I mean, let's start with their closing arguments. What do you think is going to win the day?

SMERCONISH: I thought what was interesting, in terms of how they wrapped up last night, was they both had these enormous crowds so the enthusiasm is there. When I look at Donald Trump, I see someone who's relying mostly on an organic effort. I know that Sean Spicer disagrees with me when I say that I think that the Democratic field operation -- the metrics and their ability to bring out people that they've already identified -- is superior to that which the GOP has assembled.

What the Republicans say they have going for them is something that we can't measure in these polls. The people are going to come out today to reject the status quo, to reject the media, to reject all officeholders, and to support Donald Trump. So, it's sort of old school and new school in terms of how they're driving the vote.

There's so much data to try and digest. I come back to one data point that I've shared with the two of you time and again, and it's this. George Herbert Walker Bush, in 1988, got 59 percent of the white vote. It earned him 426 electoral votes. Mitt Romney, in 2012, the exact same percentage of the white vote. Only 206 electoral votes.

The takeaway? It is a different country and so all the information that you've been sharing about Hispanic voters coming out in record proportions I think, thus far, potentially is the story of the cycle.

CUOMO: Well, we had the same thing with Reagan, right? He won the un-college-educated white voter by the same margin that Trump is predicted to, and he got 59 percent of the vote. Trump's looking at somewhere in the forties, so the complexion of the country has changed. Who makes the better adjustment probably wins.

When you look at the map -- as people are coming home and hearing about exits and seeing different things -- which states are you watching most closely, and why? SMERCONISH: So, we're tuned it. It's -- you know, it's CNN tonight, 7:00 p.m., if not sooner, and there's going to be a lot of data that's going to come soon because many things are going to pop on the East Coast. You're going to look at Florida, you're going to look at North Carolina, you're going to -- I'm working up the Eastern Seaboard -- maybe you spend some time on Virginia. But it's really, then, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.

And I don't know how long it will take them to count those votes but there will be indications relatively soon in terms of how the night is breaking. And if those -- if he has not -- if he has not pulled something from Hillary Clinton in one of those states then I think he's going to have a very difficult climb.

CAMEROTA: But, what if he has? What if Donald Trump has won North Carolina --

CUOMO: And Florida.

CAMEROTA: -- and Florida on the East Coast, and then what happens?

SMERCONISH: Well, then get some popcorn. Get the popcorn because we need to focus, then, on the Midwest. We need to know what happens in Michigan. Hey, I remember being in this bureau on primary election night in Michigan and Bernie shocked the world. Everybody keeps wondering why all this attention? Why did he go to Michigan? Why did she go to Michigan? People have forgotten because Bernie Sanders delivered a thunderclap back in primary and caucus season, so that's kind of a crapshoot.

And then, you shift, of course, further west and you wonder about Arizona and you wonder about Nevada. And you wonder what Evan McMullin really is doing in Utah. So, if the -- if the mysteries are not solved on the Eastern Seaboard then we're going to be here for a while.

CUOMO: And why are there more mysteries? And I think that takes us to the unprecedented negativity and disaffection in this election. I started calling it a rejection formation. Donald Trump is saying to blue collar Americans, I'm going to fight for you. They may look at him, to a certain degree, and say you ain't us.

Hillary Clinton has her own coalition but, really, it's the Obama coalition, and trying to get some of Bernie's farther to left, and she's saying I'm going to take care of you. And they're looking at her and they say no, you're not. You don't represent what we want. So, who gets less of that winds up being your winner.

SMERCONISH: You know, I'd say it differently, and I totally agree, Chris, with what you're saying. Politics makes strange bedfellows, never more so than in this election because you need to look well beyond. It's misleading just to see how many early ballots have been returned by Republicans and how many have been returned by Democrats. The demographics matter, race matters, ethnicity matters, education matters, and gender matters. You need more data than just to look at R's and D's. [07:45:00] CAMEROTA: So, if there's record turnout tonight, what do you think that means? I mean, is that a silver lining that people have been engaged or does that just show anger?

SMERCONISH: Maybe they're just -- you know, I just -- I just had this conversation with my wife. I said, do you think that they're lined up because they want to make sure it's really over or is it that they're so enthused? Look, you know what the numbers are. They may complain about it but they're watching us, they're paying attention, they're following CNN. I think they're into it but eager for it to be over.

CAMEROTA: Fair enough. Michael Smerconish, thanks so much. Great to talk to you --

SMERCONISH: See you, guys.

CAMEROTA: -- on this Election Day.

CUOMO: Early voting is certainly giving us insights, increasingly so, Latinos especially. Record-breaking numbers in early voting, especially in Florida. Florida's going to have well over 50 percent turnout before we even count what happens today -- unheard of. So, what is that vote going to mean? All right, we're going to talk about that.

CAMEROTA: All right, and if you want a chance to be featured on CNN's Election Day coverage, tag your voting Instagrams with #MyVote. Let us know who you voted for and where you voted and we'll be showing some of them throughout the day.

CUOMO: How about a little taste now? What do we have?

CAMEROTA: We have some live pictures from Parma, Ohio.

CUOMO: That's just as good.

CAMEROTA: How about that?

CUOMO: There we go.

CAMEROTA: Yes.

CUOMO: Look at that, USA all the way -- that's nice. Little voter sticker there on the way to the gym -- respect it. Ah --

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[07:50:25] CUOMO: Early voting data very instructive. It shows, at a minimum, record-breaking surging among Latino voters in several different battleground states. Let's take a look here. Eighty-nine percent up in Florida from 2008. Florida has over 50 percent turnout already and the polls are just opening there. Seventy-nine percent, Latinos are up in early voting in North Carolina. One hundred and forty-four percent in Georgia. That's an important pink state there, so -- and that's since 2012.

Some are saying there could be a specific reason behind the numbers. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: They're bringing drugs, they're bringing crime, they're rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.

Somebody's doing the raping, Don. I mean, you know, it's -- I mean, somebody's doing it. You think it's women being raped, well who's doing the raping?

This judge is giving us unfair rulings. We're building a wall. He's a Mexican. We're building a wall between here and Mexico.

We will build a great wall and Mexico will pay for the wall, 100 percent.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CUOMO: So is that what it's about? Let's debate with our CNN political commentators. We've got Corey Lewandowski, former Trump campaign manager. And, Christine Quinn, Hillary Clinton supporter, vice chair of the New York State Democratic Party.

The reason that we've seen a softening in wall talk and a softening in the anger towards immigrants that Trump was voicing early on, is it because you guys know that this group can hurt you?

COREY LEWANDOWSKI, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, I think -- look, anybody who doesn't realize the political reality that the country is changing is going to fail. There's no question about that. But what we do know is that in states like North Carolina, in states like Florida, there is an uptick in Hispanic turnout. We know that.

But there's also an uptick in light turnout in North Carolina. There's a downtick in African-American turnout. So, OK, I don't want to look at just one part -- one nationality and say this is going to be the make or break. Of course, the country continues to change. You're going to see that in a state like Nevada where Hispanic turnout is up much more so than it was even four years ago.

But I think that at the end of the day the country's becoming more diverse and any candidate who wants to be successful is going to have to put a new coalition together in order to get there.

CUOMO: Ironically, Donald Trump suggests that after the 2012 -- he was one of those weighing in and saying boy, if you don't pass immigration reform and start treating these people with respect, you Republicans are never going to win anything. And yet, he doubled down on the ugly side of that message.

However, what does that mean for Hillary Clinton? If they're coming out just to voice an expression of Donald Trump and rejection that's one thing, but you have the Cuban community, you've got the Latinos. They are not the African-American community. They have different sense of family values and economic establishment in this country that they favor which could create a different break. They won't be 95-5 the way African-Americans are. Maybe it's 80-20, maybe it's 78-22. What does that mean?

CHRISTINE QUINN, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, I think, clearly, for today -- Election Day -- we're going -- we know that the vast, vast, vast majority of Latino and Hispanic voters who are turning out are turning out in support of Clinton. Is part of that because Donald Trump has been vile and racist, yes. But part of that is also about Hillary's support for the community, her work with community, and her history of fighting for women and children.

Now, there -- I don't really think, even with communities who people say vote in a monolithic way, I don't really think that's true, ever, and the Latino-Hispanic community is incredibly diverse. And that's why Hillary is the best person, absolutely, in this race to represent that community because she's somebody who's built her career on listening, on engaging, and problem-solving, not putting cookie-cut answers out there that she thinks speaks for a huge bunch of Americans.

That's not what she's going to do and that's why she's going to represent that community and so many others in an informed and effective way.

CUOMO: So, to the extent that we have untrained minds going into the polls this morning who are literally open. They know it's their duty, they know it matters. It's too ugly, it's too angry. I've got to get in there and say my part. What do you say to the voter who's saying you know, this Hillary Clinton -- you know, this email stuff bothers me. I need to know that I can trust one of these people. She has been there a long time through a lot of things and I want something different. Why is Hillary Clinton the choice for that person?

QUINN: Well, I would say a couple of reasons. I mean, I've known Hillary Clinton and had the great honor and privilege of calling her a mentor and working with her for 20 years. And this may sound like one of those spin tactics but it is true that there've been almost 30 years of groups and entities and people attacking her and attacking her husband.

[07:55:00] I can tell you, personally, Hillary Clinton is the person who has called me on every birthday since we've met, on every gay pride. When I've had bad, bad political moments she's the first one to call and say call me if you need me, keep your chin up. She's somebody who cares about people deeply and as president, that's going to be her focus. Women and children and how to make this country better.

And she has -- you know, there's a discussion of change, and change just for change sake isn't good. You can change and go in the wrong direction and get profoundly lost in a way that will hurt this country. She has experience and commitment, and that's what we need right now.

CUOMO: And the proposition of rejection, potentially, on your side, is what this man says and what he says he's going to do offends me, and I don't believe that he is one of the working-class. He's a billionaire and he's never done anything for that group, but I do want something different. I don't like the status quo. Why should they vote for Trump?

LEWANDOWSKI: Look, I think we can all agree that Washington, D.C. is broken and that politicians on both sides of the aisle, Republicans and Democrats, for 30 years, have made promises they haven't delivered on.

We know that between one in four and one in five African-Americans still live in poverty today. One in four and one in five Latinos live in poverty today. Our debt is at $20 trillion. That's something we're going to leave to our children and our grandchildren.

We have an obligation to do something different. And when you ask the American people, Republicans and Democrats combined, do you think our country's going in the right track or the wrong track, the plurality by 50 percent say we're going in the wrong track.

So if you like the way that things have gone and you think that Washington is going well, then absolutely you should elect someone who's got 30 years of Washington, D.C. experience. If you think that it's time to fundamentally change Washington and elect somebody who isn't bought and paid for by special interests, that is going to put Americans first, then you say I'm going to give Donald Trump the opportunity to go do that. I think that's the fundamental argument.

CUOMO: If Donald Trump loses this election what does he say tonight?

LEWANDOWSKI: Look, I think you have to see what the outcome is. I think what we see right now that --

CUOMO: I'm just saying if he loses.

LEWANDOWSKI: Sure. Look, if it's a decisive loss, I don't think --

CUOMO: It's decisive, nobody can question it, he loses. Hypothetically, what does he do?

LEWANDOWSKI: I don't think that's going to be the case but I think what he's going to say, and what I would counsel him to say, is this has been a historic movement and you can never give up. He has brought people together that have been outside the political process for a long time.

Let me say this. When Barack Obama was first elected,I was a Romney guy. I said look, I -- but you want to support the President of the United States and you want hope. And if Donald Trump doesn't win tonight I'm going to be devastated and disappointed. I put a lot of time and effort into that campaign. But let me say this. The country always comes back, regroups, and does what's the best.

QUINN: And, you know what?

CUOMO: Same question to you. If Hillary Clinton loses what does she say tonight? QUINN: She says congratulations, Mr. Trump, and I'm here ready to help you in any way to lead the country. She'll accept the results. And I think it's a historic and important contrast between the two candidates. What Corey said is not what Donald Trump has said -- not at all. He said he'll accept the results if he wins. He doesn't hold the foundation and real meaning of this country. He doesn't hold it --

CUOMO: Well --

QUINN: -- close to his heart by saying he won't follow that commitment.

CUOMO: The three most powerful words and amorphous words in our language, we will see, because you could argue whoever loses is going to matter more tonight than whoever wins, in terms of bringing this country together. Thanks to both you. It's been a joy.

All right, there's a lot of news going on, including a live interview with Donald Trump, Jr. in just a moment. Let's get to it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: None of us want to wake up Wednesday morning and wish we had done more.

TRUMP: Today is our independence day. We are going to win back the White House.

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Are you fired up? Ready to go?

GOV. MIKE PENCE (R-IN), VICE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: This presidential campaign has been going on for a long time, but now it's in your hands.

MICHELLE OBAMA, FIRST LADY OF THE UNITED STATES: With your vote, you can say that this country has always been great.

TRUMP: Do you want America to be ruled by the corrupt political class or do you want America to be ruled by you, the people?

CLINTON: In 2016, when everything was on the line, you voted for stronger, fairer, better America.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAMEROTA: Welcome to our viewers in the United States and around the world. You're watching NEW DAY and it is Election Day in America. The finish line is in sight for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Now it is up to you, the voters. The polls are opening this hour in 14 more states, including parts of Michigan and Arizona.

CUOMO: The good news, people are lining up. I know, you've got to wait, it's inconvenient. But, hey, this is about exercising the franchise. It's worth a little inconvenience. You're looking at live pictures from Chappaqua, New York. You know who lives there, Hillary Clinton, and she is expected to vote any minute. We will bring you that.

We cannot exaggerate how much is at stake. Let's begin our coverage with CNN's Phil Mattingly, live there in Raleigh, North Carolina. All eyes on that state, to be sure.