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Cruz And O'Rourke Face Off In First Senate Debate Tonight; Father And Son Gun Down Neighbor Over Mattress Dispute; CNN Reality Check: Golf Magazine Helps Clear Man Of Conviction; W. Kamau Bell On His Trip To Africa With Anthony Bourdain. Aired 7:30-8a ET

Aired September 21, 2018 - 07:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[07:31:14] (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Promise me, you've got to get out for the mid -- don't be complacent. You've got to get out for the midterms.

You've got to vote. You've got to vote. We need more Republicans.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: President Trump calling on Republican voters overnight to go out and vote, and the midterm race is certainly heating up.

Tonight, Republican Sen. Ted Cruz and his Democratic challenger, Congressman Beto O'Rourke -- they face off in their first debate in Texas. Recent polls show -- well, some of the polls show that this race is tightening. That's one of the important things here.

Joining me now to discuss, "CNN POLITICS" senior writer and analyst, Harry Enten.

Harry, you look at Texas, you look at the race against Ted Cruz and Democrats so badly --

HARRY ENTEN, CNN SENIOR WRITER AND ANALYST, CNN POLITICS: Oh --

BERMAN: -- want this. They have so much hope here. But there are some signs in the polls they may have their hopes dashed.

ENTEN: Yes, if liberal hopes could drive a Senate campaign to victory, Beto O'Rourke would be winning by 40 points. Unfortunately, the vast majority of the polls do show him losing, including a recent Quinnipiac poll that shows him down nine points in the state to Ted Cruz.

I should point out that most of the other polls show a tighter race, but pretty much all of them show Ted Cruz still leading.

BERMAN: And the reason Cruz has an advantage there is that the voters that O'Rourke needs to show up -- we just don't know that they will. ENTEN: That's correct, specifically Latino voters who tend to lag and turn out at midterm elections. And there's no sign in the polling so far that they will, in fact, turn out in 2018.

BERMAN: No sign so far. We don't know what will happen.

ENTEN: Of course, we'll see. Well, we'll see.

BERMAN: But that's what you're here for, to tell us what you're actually seeing, and people should know we're not seeing those signs right now.

ENTEN: We are not. We're not seeing them in the state numbers or in the congressional districts.

BERMAN: Let's talk about some of those congressional districts around the country because the real fun is trying to game out the House races -- 435 races --

ENTEN: Right.

BERMAN: -- around the country.

Democrats, if you look at the generic ballot test, have a clear advantage right now.

What's one bellwether race you're looking at that perhaps tells you which way this thing is swinging?

ENTEN: So, New Jersey seven is a district that I'm specifically looking at. Leonard Lance, a longtime Republican incumbent who's been around since I was like a wee little boy.

And right now what we're seeing is Leonard Lance, in New Jersey, is trailing in a Monmouth poll by a few points. If he loses on election night it will be a huge night for Democrats.

BERMAN: And, Jersey is an early state and we'll know fairly early --

ENTEN: Fairly early.

BERMAN: -- fairly early. You'll be able to watch that race very closely.

All right, a sign, perhaps, that things are going Democrats' way. Is there one race that shows that?

ENTEN: Colorado six -- Mike Coffman, a longtime Republican incumbent. There was a poll out put out by "The New York Times" recently that had him down bigly -- down by double-digits. And I went back -- since 2006 when an incumbent is losing by double-digits at this point, there's not a single one of them that has come back to win in a House election.

BERMAN: Dana Bash just went down to that district. Mike Coffman did 500 push-ups for her -- ENTEN: That's nice.

BERMAN: -- but the push-ups might not be enough given what you're seeing in the polls right now.

ENTEN: No, but it will make him in better health and certainly, in better health than I am.

BERMAN: One of the things that I hear most from Republican strategists, and there is some evidence of this, is that you look at the generic ballot numbers and they're very good for the Democrats.

ENTEN: Yes.

BERMAN: The race-by-race polling isn't as good. Republicans are faring better. And they're faring better in some places you would think Democrats need to do well -- and we thought they might do well -- if they're going to take back the House.

ENTEN: Yes, it's definitely true. If you look district-by-district, Republicans are doing a little bit better than the generic ballot would suggest they be doing.

And one place, in particular, is Florida's 26th district where Carlos Curbelo, who is -- who has been around for a few years, is actually leading his Democratic opponent in a recent "New York Times" poll by about three percentage points.

If you had asked me at the beginning of the year one district I thought might tell us which was the House race going it would be that one.

What's so interesting down there is he is being driven to a lead by Cuban voters -- Latino voters who you might have expected would go against him given how much they hate Donald Trump. But they're sticking by the Republican incumbent there.

BERMAN: But, Hillary Clinton won that district -- just so people know -- by what? By --

ENTEN: Yes, around double-digits.

And, indeed, if you look at Florida's 27th district, which was a district that she won by 20 points, we thought Democrats would easily win there. But some recent polling actually shows the race is really tight there.

BERMAN: So, Florida and California seats where Republicans are doing better than you might have thought otherwise and perhaps, a ray of hope for them.

[07:35:05] All right, Supreme Court. That is the story of the week -- the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh.

We've seen in the numbers -- the national numbers -- that opposition to his nomination and confirmation has grown a lot -- nine points in the NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll over the last month. That is a lot. That is a big jump in this type of thing.

Senate races -- there are red-state Democrats for whom this was always going to be a difficult choice, whether a vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh or not. We had thought that many of these red-state Democrats would vote yes.

What does the polling tell us -- what the mood is?

ENTEN: Yes. I mean, we haven't gotten too much polling back since the accusations against Kavanaugh.

I will point out in some of the swing congressional districts -- which I think probably have similar viewpoints on Kavanaugh as some of those swing Senate states -- they do show that Kavanaugh is actually faring half-decently. He's actually running -- support is running ahead of his opposition.

So I think at this point, red-state Democrats -- look, if you were going to vote on the -- vote on this nomination depending on your electoral whatever, then you're probably still going to vote the same way you were voting before.

But if you were going to vote against him, I think you should vote against him because at the end of the day, usually, judgeships are not something people vote upon. There are obvious exceptions to that.

BERMAN: It may not be political considerations that they're voting on.

But, Heidi Heitkamp, Joe Donnelly, Joe Manchin -- the political pressure is to vote to confirm haven't changed.

ENTEN: I think that that's right.

BERMAN: Harry Enten, great to have you, sir -- "Serpico Rain Man." I always love your appearances here.

ENTEN: Thanks.

BERMAN: Alisyn --

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: All right.

The trade war between the U.S. and China is heating up, but the Dow is at an all-time high. Christine Romans is going to explain, next.

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[07:41:14] BERMAN: It's time for "CNN Money Now."

So, what trade war? Global stocks higher today after Wall Street closed at records.

Our chief business correspondent Christine Romans joins us now with more -- Romans.

CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CHIEF BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT, ANCHOR, "EARLY START": Good morning, John.

The S&P 500 and the Dow hit record highs -- never have been this high. The Dow rising more than 250 points for its first record since late January.

Wall Street -- you guys unfazed by the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China. Investors are betting on a compromise.

Companies are making great profits thanks to corporate tax cuts, and the U.S. economy is strong. We just learned that claims for unemployment benefits are the lowest in 49 years.

And as we approach midterms, President Trump touting those impressive numbers, both in a tweet and in a video defending his tough trade policies.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: Tariffs have really had a positive impact. Number one, our country has taken in a lot of money. Number two, we're creating jobs like never before.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROMANS: And he's right, the economy is strong. The U.S. has created about 3.7 million jobs during the Trump presidency.

But we have seen these numbers before. Here are the strong jobs gains of the president's first two years shown in the context of the past decade. Job creation almost matching the very strong 2014, 2015, and 2016, but not quite -- Alisyn.

CAMEROTA: OK, Christine. Thank you very much for explaining all of that.

Now to some other stories.

There are still more than 100 children in government custody who were separated from their parents at the border and may never be reunited. The government says they released 34 more children since last week. More than 2,000 children have been reunited since a federal judge ended the practice in June.

BERMAN: There's a really disturbing video I want to show you out of Texas. A father and son -- we'll show you in a second -- seen gunning down a neighbor after a fight broke out over a mattress in a dumpster. This video we're going to show you is very disturbing.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOHN MILLER, FATALLY SHOT NEIGHBOR IN DISPUTE OVER A MATTRESS: If you come closer to me I'm going to kill you.

AARON HOWARD, SHOT BY NEIGHBOR IN DISPUTE OVER A MATTRESS: Hey, did you hear him say he's going to kill me?

KARA BOX, FIANCE OF AARON HOWARD: Yes.

HOWARD: I'm at the dumpster. Put the gun up and go inside.

J. MILLER: Don't --

BOX: You pulled a gun in front of our children.

HOWARD: You pulled a gun in front of my kids -- (bleep) a mattress. F*** you. You pointed a gun (bleep).

J. MILLER: If you come -- if you come within three foot of me I'm going to kill you.

MICHAEL MILLER, FATALLY SHOT NEIGHBOR IN DISPUTE OVER A MATTRESS: OK.

BOX: You're not going to shoot my husband.

M. MILLER: Just once.

HOWARD: Shoot me. You're dead -- point it, point it.

(Gunshots)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BERMAN: The victim has been identified as Aaron Howard. He was unarmed.

Howard's fiance shared this video online. She says he was upset that John Miller and his son, Michael, pulled out a gun in front of his son, which prompted this deadly encounter.

The Millers are each facing murder charges. Both are out on bond now.

That is so sickening. I mean, I really had to avert my eyes there for portions of that. It is so sickening to watch that.

And look, there are lots of arguments for having a gun. Obviously, it provides protection for lots of people.

But this is a very compelling argument for why you shouldn't have a gun, which is that regular neighborhood squabbles turn deadly like that. How quickly they escalated was like that. And, of course, it would have been completely different without guns.

BERMAN: Yes, I don't know. This was about rage. I don't know whatever gets you to that point in rage.

CAMEROTA: OK, moving on.

It is time now for a CNN "Reality Check" and at least we have some pretty pictures to look at. These are pretty pictures of --

BERMAN: Of John Avlon?

CAMEROTA: -- John Avlon, which is going to make us all feel better. Actually, it's of golf courses by a man who had never even seen a golf

course in person. But somehow these wound up freeing him after nearly three decades behind bars.

This is an interesting "Reality Check" that you have chosen here, John Avlon, our CNN senior political analyst -- explain.

[07:45:02] JOHN AVLON, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: It's a fascinating story, Ali.

Valentino Dixon was serving a 39-to-life sentence for murder and he's also a talented self-taught artist who honed his craft while serving his time. He was 19 years into his sentence in Attica when a golf- obsessed warden brought Dixon a picture of the famous 12th hole at Augusta National and asked him to draw it for him as a retirement gift.

After that, Dixon caught the bug as well, drawing detailed pictures of all things golf. Something about the game spoke to his spirit despite having never stepped on a golf course before.

Dixon became so good and so prolific that it eventually caught the attention of "Golf Digest" magazine, which profiled him back in 2012. They noticed his work but they also noticed something else. His conviction was about as flimsy as the prison-sanctioned six-by-eight inch paper his work was drawn on.

"Golf Digest" listened to Dixon's story and looked into what he told them. They published his claims of innocence and in the process golf writers became investigative reporters.

Then more media picked up the story. Georgetown University students worked the case as part of a course on prison reform.

And this past Wednesday, after 27 years in prison, Valentino Dixon walked free.

Make no mistake. This happened because of the power of the press.

Here's what his lawyer, Donald Thompson, told "Golf Digest."

Quote, "Once a case crosses a certain threshold of media attention, it matters, even though it shouldn't. It's embarrassing for the legal system that for a long time the best presentation of the investigation was from a golf magazine."

Yes, it is extraordinary that a golf magazine freed an innocent man, but it's even more extraordinary that a golf magazine had to.

According to "The Buffalo News," another man confessed to the murder right after it happened and kept confessing at least nine more times.

Now, Dixon's record wasn't squeaky clean but he was no murderer. Those who looked into his story said it was just another case of a young black man being railroaded by local law enforcement and then forgotten about the system once he was in prison -- and he is far from alone.

According to a conservative estimate from the Innocence Project, the rate of wrongful convictions in this country is at least one percent. Figuring a prison population of 2.3 million, that's at least 23,000 people. To put that in perspective, imagine a college stadium full of innocent people unfairly imprisoned in America.

Now, the Trump administration has promised to address prison reform and unfair sentencing, and that would be welcomed, but words haven't translated to action quite yet.

For now, one thing is clear. The free press helped free a man this week after nearly three decades were stolen from him. It's a reminder that a functioning democracy requires shining a light in the darkness even and especially when other folks have given up.

And that's your "Reality Check."

CAMEROTA: John, you weren't kidding. That was really a remarkable one and, I mean, such an important message. And thank God for "Golf Digest."

BERMAN: Good for "Golf Digest," right?

CAMEROTA: Yes.

AVLON: Absolutely.

CAMEROTA: You can find good reporters anywhere.

BERMAN: And you can find truth in a lot of different places.

AVLON: That's right.

CAMEROTA: That's true, John.

Thank you very much for that "Reality Check."

OK. So, CNN is going to Africa one more time with Anthony Bourdain in "PARTS UNKNOWN." One familiar face who joined Tony on the journey tells us what they saw together in Kenya, next.

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[07:50:15] CAMEROTA: Well, his unique voice and perspective changed the way millions of people around the world viewed food, and travel, and one another.

So this Sunday you can join Anthony Bourdain for one more ride around the world as CNN brings you the final season of "PARTS UNKNOWN."

This journey begins in Africa where Tony introduced a special travel companion, CNN's W. Kamau Bell, to the distinctive sights, tastes, and sounds of Kenya.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) ANTHONY BOURDAIN, CNN HOST, "ANTHONY BOURDAIN: PARTS UNKNOWN" (DECEASED): Nairobi means cool water in Maasai. It's the capital of Kenya with 6.5 million people living in the metro area.

He grew up around a British railroad depot during the colonial era halfway between other British in Uganda and the coastal port of Mombasa.

(INAUDIBLE) unlovely sense of been here, done that.

It's not a good look for me, I know, but there's a mischievous curiosity tucked away in some poisonous part of my brain that's dying to see how Kamau handles the heat, the spice, the crowds -- the overwhelming rush of a whole new world because that's what it is first-time. This ain't perfect (ph).

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAMEROTA: W. Kamau Bell, host of CNN's award -- Emmy-award-winning "UNITED SHADES OF AMERICA" joins us now.

BERMAN: He insists that we say that.

W. KAMAU BELL, CNN HOST, "UNITED SHADES OF AMERICA", SOCIO-POLITICAL COMEDIAN: Yes, that's in my rider.

CAMEROTA: I got you.

So what was that trip to Nairobi like?

BELL: It was incredible. I mean, it was -- I'd never been to Africa before.

When -- from the first time I met Tony he was like we should do something together and when we finally -- I finally said I've never been to Kenya. And he said I've never been to Kenya either, which was sort of incredible to me.

And it was great. It was really incredible.

BERMAN: But once again -- and we're going to get to it in a second because I was waiting to hear his voice do the narration --

BELL: Yes.

BERMAN: -- and I have to say it was chilling and moving in many ways.

BELL: Yes.

BERMAN: We'll get to that.

But just to travel -- to go through a country with someone like Anthony Bourdain has got to be extraordinary.

BELL: I mean, it was -- it -- he'd never been to Kenya before and everybody we ran into in Kenya was like where have you been? You're finally here. What took you so long?

He -- it was like being with an ambassador.

Like, you know -- and people who didn't know who I was because I was with him, they were kinder to me. You know what I mean? Which is weird because I was the black guy in Kenya. You know what I mean?

So it was very -- it was just clear that his reputation, even though he hadn't been there, had preceded him and they were excited that they knew he was going to tell a story they could -- they could gather around.

CAMEROTA: He said that he was deriving a perverse pleasure from seeing how you --

BELL: Yes.

CAMEROTA: -- would handle the crowds, and the heat, and the food. So how did you handle all of that?

BELL: I mean, I'm fine with crowds and heat, but the food was -- that was -- I learned a lot. I tried a lot.

CAMEROTA: Like what?

BELL: And I told myself I would -- well, the first night we got there I was -- we were going to eat something called goat's head stew. If I --

BERMAN: It was --

BELL: Right.

BERMAN: -- something called goat's head stew.

BELL: Yes. Well, I --

BERMAN: Why is it called that?

BELL: Well, here's what I thought. I thought it was going to be a bowl of stew and I would like eat around the goat's head.

But it was just a goat that was just split in half -- a goat's head split in half and it just sort of turned into a pile of like desiccated meat and tendons, and then you just sort of reached in and grab a piece. And so that's where I had my first eyeball.

BERMAN: What did it taste like?

CAMEROTA: Oh my -- OK.

BERMAN: Chicken?

BELL: It tastes -- it tastes like eyeball. No, it tastes like eyeball.

CAMEROTA: Oh, come on. You --

BELL: Chicken eyeball.

CAMEROTA: You ate an eyeball?

BELL: Yes. I mean, Anthony was like there you go, and what was I going to say? What, no thank you? I mean, the whole lesson that Anthony taught us was to be a good tourist and to -- and to jump in with both feet, and so that's what I did.

BERMAN: So this was your first trip to Africa --

BELL: Yes.

BERMAN: -- and unlike President Obama, you were not born in Kenya.

BELL: No, no. My name -- my name was born in Kenya but I was not.

BERMAN: Well, explain that because the connection is fascinating.

BELL: Yes. So, my name is W. Kamau -- Walter Kamau Bell. I just broke breaking news.

The Kamau is Kikuyu -- Kenyan. And it's -- in Kenya, naming -- Kamau is like naming a kid Michael here. It's a very common name.

So, Kenyans always come to me -- knowing I'm not from Kenya because of how I look -- but saying where did you get that name from? And then whenever I told them they were like you have to come to Kenya.

And then when I got there, even though they didn't know I was from Kenya, many of them said welcome home.

CAMEROTA: So what is it like to travel with Tony? What was that experience like?

BELL: I mean, I had been watching him for years -- like from all of his shows -- and so I'd been sitting on couches for years going man, that would be cool -- just like everybody else had. It would be cool to travel with him.

And it was everything I wanted it to be. We -- not only did we film the show but we hung out before and after the show. And because we have these shows on CNN, he gave me a lot of advice about how to be in T.V. and things he had done on his show. That he was like you could do this.

And so it was really -- it was -- it was fantasy camp and you get to watch it.

BERMAN: And we have his narration. This show was pretty much complete when he died there. It's remarkable to hear his voice now.

BELL: It is, and it took me about two weeks to get through the whole thing because it was just a lot to take in because I came back excited and then very shortly thereafter we found out that he had passed away. And so -- but -- and it's -- and the way -- you listen to the way they

put these stories together because I really have to give his team credit too. They really did a lot of care that I would --