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Khashoggi was Murdered by Saudi Hit Squad; Gender Gap in Midterms; World Series at Fenway Park. Aired 6:30-7a ET

Aired October 23, 2018 - 06:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[06:33:12] JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: We have some breaking news for you.

New details emerging about the murder of "Washington Post" journalist Jamal Khashoggi inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. A big tell-all moment from the Turkish president.

CNN chief international correspondent Clarissa Ward live in Istanbul.

What did he say, Clarissa?

CLARISSA WARD, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, he promised the full, naked truth, John. Really he seems to be just sort of continuing the striptease, as it were. But he did remain -- mention two very interesting nuggets.

Number one, a team from the Saudi consulate, he said, the day before Jamal Khashoggi disappeared, they went on a reconnaissance missions into the Belgrade and Yalova Forest. These are the two forests on the outskirts of Istanbul where some of the search for Khashoggi's remains have been concentrated on. He didn't give any more details, but that is certainly interesting.

Number two, he said that the cameras in the consulate that Saudi staff and the consulate had disconnected the cameras from the hard drive. This is interesting because it may explain why we never saw the Saudis release that footage of the body double leaving the consulate. It also explains how the Saudis were saying that story that essentially their cameras working.

He then went on to sort of fire off a list of questions that he is waiting for Saudi officials to answer, why did this team gather in Istanbul, who did they receive orders from, why wasn't the consulate open to investigators, why have there been so many different statements, why has the body not been found and, crucially, he really pushed this home, who is the local collaborator who Saudi officials say worked with them to dispose of the body?

He wants answers. Not clear when we're going to get them. But we are expecting to hear from Saudi Arabia's crown prince, Mohammad bin Salman, today as he presides over the opening ceremony of the now much disgraced Davos in the desert. [06:35:01] Alisyn.

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: Clarissa, very interesting developments. It's getting harder and harder to believe the cover story.

Thank you very much for all of your reporting.

Back here at home, the FBI is investigating a suspicious package sent to the home of philanthropist George Soros. Police in Bedford, New York, say an employee took the package to a wooded area and called 911. Authorities say the package appears to be an explosive device. The package was rendered safe.

BERMAN: A man who broke into a Fox station in Washington, D.C., on Monday was shot by a security guard. Surveillance video shows the suspect kicking in two glass doors at the station. Police say he was unarmed, apparently suffers from mental health issues. He was known to law enforcement and executives at the station. Right now he's hospitalized and faces second degree burglary charges.

CAMEROTA: Oh, my gosh. It's amazing to see how quickly he could kick in that glass door.

BERMAN: Yes.

CAMEROTA: All right, so there's a historic gender gap forecast for the midterm elections. We will get that forecast when there's something about Harry.

BERMAN: That's right.

And the Mega Millions drawing is tonight. It's a lawsuit waiting to happen for most of you if you enter a pool.

CAMEROTA: OK, party pooper.

BERMAN: Also, you're not going to win.

CAMEROTA: How do you know that?

BERMAN: We'll tell you why, coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[06:40:14] CAMEROTA: Election Day is two weeks from today. And if the forecast holds, 2018 will have the largest gender gap that we're illustrating right here.

BERMAN: The physical gender gap.

CAMEROTA: OK, for a midterm election on the record.

BERMAN: Now, no gender gap.

CAMEROTA: No.

There's something about Harry. So let's dig into these numbers with CNN senior politics writer and analyst Harry Enten.

You're welcome, Harry. I know you like a good visual demonstration.

HARRY ENTEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICS WRITER AND ANALYST: I thought we were on "Wheel of Fortune." It was Pat Sajak and Vanna White

CAMEROTA: Thank you.

Gender gap, tell us what we need to know.

ENTEN: Yes, so let's take a look at the numbers. What a surprise, we're looking at numbers. Yes, that's a real -- there we go. In any event, so let's take a look in the 2018 midterm election. This is an average of the last five national polls for the generic congressional ballot. And what we see is basically men and women are in two completely different universes. Men are from mars, women are apparently from Venus. With women, Democrats are leading by 22 points. Men, however, they are voting Republican by eight. So that creates a gender gap. So I'm going to try to circle this and not cross any numbers out. Can I do it? Yes, unbelievable. My handwriting, it's great. OK, a 30-point gender gap.

So let's put the -- that's huge, but let's put that --

BERMAN: That's what it has been, right?

ENTEN: That is what it has been over the last month.

BERMAN: OK.

ENTEN: Let's put that in historic context. So this is basically the gender gap in midterm elections dating all the way back to 1958. We don't have 1958 there, but you can imagine, 1960, it's pretty close, right? So we see basically that women, up to about 1980, basically voted the same way as men. If anything, they actually voted more Republican than men did. But since the 1980s, we've basically seen this almost linear trend all the way up to right here where basically we see that women are voting more Democratic compared to men at a historic rate, that 30-point rate that we spoke about.

CAMEROTA: The biggest ever. I mean the biggest that you can find.

ENTEN: The biggest ever in a midterm. Exactly.

BERMAN: That's one way of saying it. OK.

ENTEN: There you go.

So the question is, why are we seeing this gap? Is it merely that men are voting more Republican or that women are voting more Democratic, or maybe they're both going in different directions.

So let's take a look and we can see, when we break it down by years, that the margin, the Democratic margin among women, is at a historic high. That is, they are voting more Democratic in 2018 than they ever had in any midterm past. And what's so interesting about this is, remember 1974, I mean John

was just a wee little boy, but I wasn't even born yet. Remember 1974, that was a huge year for Democrats. That was after Watergate. They swept everything. And women that year only voted Democratic by a 14- point margin. So the Democratic margin right now among women is even larger than it was in Watergate. So we are talking huge numbers. Clearly something's going on. I think it's both a historic trend, just generally speaking, women voting more Democrat. I also think it's the Donald Trump effect where women are just really, really pissed off.

BERMAN: Are Republicans getting a corresponding bounce with men?

ENTEN: Yes, so let's take a look at that. So if we were to look at this GOP and men's line -- look, they have these labels, they're all so nice.

So Donald Trump actually did fairly well with men in 2016. He won them by 11 points right here. The gap between how Republicans are doing this year versus Trump isn't that large, but, still, Republicans are underperforming among men compared to Donald Trump. So they have lost three points. And that, of course, is pretty big because let's take a look at how Democrats are doing among women compared to how Hillary Clinton did. And you can see that Democrats are much -- are very much outperforming how Hillary Clinton did among women. So this is a huge gap and this is really driving what I believe is the Democratic potential for a wave this election.

CAMEROTA: Do more women vote than men?

ENTEN: Yes, they do, and that's something that we should keep in mind. If the gap were sort of reversed, right, and let's say Democrats were doing exceedingly well among men as compared to women, their margin in the generic congressional ballot would be two points less. So this could be the difference between them winning the house and them losing the house.

BERMAN: So keep your eye on this in the next two weeks. Exactly.

Let's talk about your current House forecast.

ENTEN: Yes, let's just -- we'll quickly hit on that. It's the same as it was yesterday. Sorry, it's a little bit boring. I'm going to say hello to you both again.

CAMEROTA: Oh, hi.

ENTEN: Hello. Oh, hello.

CAMEROTA: Too close.

ENTEN: A little too close. I'm going to step back here, again, out of the camera shot, 226 to 209. Of course as we spoke about, there's always a wide margin of error, but that could get up to 260. Or it could be as low as 203, although, again, the ceiling is higher than the floor is low.

BERMAN: Last, the Senate -- the Senate real quickly.

ENTEN: The Senate -- the Senate look. This is -- they didn't update this, but we can cross that, 49/51. Republicans still in control. And, you know, they could go really high in their ceiling to a nice 56, which we'll see.

BERMAN: Harry Enten, thank you so much for helping us understand the dynamic between men and women.

ENTEN: And thanks for being my friends. It really warms my heart.

BERMAN: There's a presumption there, but we'll let you -- we'll let you think that.

ENTEN: Thank you for allowing me to have that presumption.

[06:45:01] CAMEROTA: Harry's forecast is available each day by 9:00 a.m. at cnn.com/forecast.

BERMAN: All right, baseball's fall classic begins tonight.

CAMEROTA: Oh, boy.

BERMAN: Where is it taking place? At Fenway Park.

CAMEROTA: Oh, my gosh.

BERMAN: There will be another team there as well, along with the Red Sox.

CAMEROTA: But you don't know their names?

BERMAN: It doesn't really matter, does it?

CAMEROTA: I see.

BERMAN: We'll take you to Fenway next, live.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BERMAN: In many ways it's the greatest day of the year. And one of the greatest days we've had in five years because it's the first World Series game at Fenway in five years. The two best teams in baseball, game one of the World Series at Fenway Park.

Andy Scholes is there with the "Bleacher Report."

Hey, Andy.

ANDY SCHOLES, CNN SPORTS CORRESPONDENT: Hey, John. I know you'd want to trade places with me because I know Fenway Park is one of your favorite places in the entire world. You see, you've got the green monster right behind me right here.

And you know in baseball you're doing something right when you're still playing and you can see your breath. And we should be in for a great World Series. Both teams with their superstar ace pitchers on the mound tonight. You've got Clayton Kershaw going for the Dodgers and Chris Sale going for the Red Sox.

And for the Dodgers, you know, they're trying to erase last year's memory of losing in game seven of the World Series to the Astros. Los Angeles hoping to celebrate their first World Series championship in 30 years. The Red Sox, meanwhile, they're trying to complete one of the greatest seasons in baseball history after winning 108 games during the regular season.

[06:50:17] (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

XANDER BOGAERTS, RED SOX SHORTSTOP: (INAUDIBLE). I mean it's been amazing. They've been the best team over on that side. We're the best team on this side. And we're going up against each other.

MATT KEMP, DODGERS OUTFIELDER: I could only imagine what an L.A. parade would be like, especially for our Dodger fans. I think it would be chaos, but a beautiful chaos.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SCHOLES: Now, for all the history behind these two teams, amazingly they've never faced off in the World Series as the Dodgers and the Red Sox. They did face each other way back in 1916 when the Dodgers were the Brooklyn Robbins. And that series, of course, famous for Babe Ruth throwing a 14 inning complete game to help Boston win that series.

Now, Fenway Park, where we're standing right now, the oldest ballpark in baseball, built in 1912. In its 106-year history, the Dodgers have never played here in October. And a fun fact, Fenway Park, more than 2,500 miles away from Dodgers Stadium. It's going to be the furthest distance ever between the two World Series venues.

And, guys, you know, right now it's in the 40s. We're expecting rain here all day. The crew is probably going to have to come out here in a little bit and put the tarp on the field. But it shouldn't affect game time. First pitch just after 8:00 Eastern.

I do want to point out, though, that the forecast for Los Angeles today is in the mid-70s and going to be sunny. Kind of wish game one was in Los Angeles, but still pretty cool to be here at Fenway.

CAMEROTA: The -- L.A. will win the weather contest every day of the year over Boston.

BERMAN: Yes, but it makes them soft. It makes them soft. It makes the Dodgers soft.

CAMEROTA: Absolutely.

BERMAN: The Dodgers are soft. The Red Sox, weather hardened.

CAMEROTA: Hardy New Englanders.

BERMAN: That's why they're going to win. All right, Andy, have fun. Don't mess up the grass there.

CAMEROTA: All right, $1.6 billion is up for grabs in tonight's Mega Millions drawing. It's the biggest lottery jackpot in U.S. history. And John Berman will not be winning it. I know that for sure.

BERMAN: Yes, but, neither will you.

CAMEROTA: I don't know that for sure. Christine Romans is going to tell me my odds of winning.

BERMAN: She's with me. You know that.

CAMEROTA: Yes. John, I've got to --

BERMAN: She's with me.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[06:56:59] CAMEROTA: OK, it's time for "CNN Business."

$1.6 billion up for grabs in tonight's Mega Millions drawing. The biggest in U.S. history. But you're more likely to be eaten by a shark than take home the big prize.

Chief business correspondent Christine Romans joins us with more.

See, Christine, here's the problem, I think it's likely that I'm going to be eaten by a shark.

CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CHIEF BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Not if you stay out of the water.

Look, it's a world record jackpot and the odds of winning are really long, really, really long, one in 302 million, Alisyn, for the Mega Millions, one in 302 million. The Powerball drawing tomorrow is $602 million. And it has slightly better odds for you. You have one in 292 million chance of winning that one.

Look, you are way more likely to be struck by lightning, die in an asteroid strike, be murdered in the Grand Canyon or, your favorite, attacked by a shark than win the lottery.

BERMAN: Attacked by a shark in the Grand Canyon.

ROMANS: Maybe. Maybe. While playing the tuba. But, still, there is a chance. So let's dream.

If you take the Mega Millions cash up front, that lump sum is $904 million. Right, a lot of money. You could buy three Boeing 777s, you could buy more than 3,000 single-family homes. You could buy 14 Caribbean islands.

But why spend it? I mean it's so much money, why spend it, right? If you bought treasuries, U.S. treasuries, super safe U.S. Treasury bonds, invested at 3.3 percent, guys, your $900 million lump sum would throw off a cool $29 million in interest a year. Could you live on $29 million and keep the $900 million pot? I could.

BERMAN: The taxes on that, though, after -- you know, who wants --

CAMEROTA: Oh, my gosh.

BERMAN: Who wants to deal with it? Who wants to deal with it?

CAMEROTA: A wet blanket of lottery stories.

Christine, I don't think it's working for you -- I don't think it's a deterrent when you tell us those things.

ROMANS: No, I know it's not a deterrent because 20 years of covering money and I get more excitement from viewers about lottery stories than about treasury bond deals.

BERMAN: Romans and I are going to buy a ticket. We're going to split the winnings. You'll never see us again.

Here are your late night laughs.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JIMMY KIMMEL, HOST, "JIMMY KIMMEL LIVE": Senator Ted Cruz is in a surprisingly tight contest in Texas. This race is so tight, Ted Cruz had to ask his former arch enemy, Donald Trump, for a boost. That had to be the saddest phone call Ted Cruz ever had to make. I mean imagine if your neighbor insulted your wife's face and then you had to ask him to loan you a weed whacker. That's like -- that's Ted Cruz's life right now.

STEPHEN COLBERT, HOST, "THE LATE SHOW WITH STEPHEN COLBERT": Today, Trump kicked it up a notch, hinting there might be even scarier elements hiding in the caravan. Sadly, it looks like Mexico's police and military are unable to stop the caravan heading to the southern border of the United States. Criminals and unknown middle easterners are mixed in. Look, it's got Hispanics, middle easterners, gay spiders, Hillary's e-mails, Colin Kaepernick and that one dream where you're naked in eighth grade taking a science test you didn't study for.

[06:59:59] SETH MEYERS, HOST, "LATE NIGHT WITH SETH MEYERS": President Trump today blamed Mexican police and military for failing to stop a caravan of migrants from entering the U.S., adding, quote, I have alerted border patrol and military that this is a national emergy (ph). Yes, we