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Reports Indicate Possible Shelling of Eastern Ukraine by Russia; Ukrainian Ambassador to U.S. Oksana Markarova Interviewed on Continued Threat of Russian Invasion of Ukraine; Analysts Examine Possibilities of Deterring Russia from Invading Ukraine. Aired 8-8:30a ET

Aired February 17, 2022 - 08:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[08:00:00]

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN ANCHOR AND CHIEF NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: They've had it for some time. And even if you're seeing some small Russian units move back, the broad picture paints one that gives Russia this capability.

I will say on this shelling that we're seeing, or claims of shelling in eastern Ukraine today, it is something to watch closely. The Ukrainians certainly are. We heard from the Ukrainian foreign minister calling it a severe violation of peace agreements in what is already a very tense situation. The broader concern, as you have dueling allegations now as to who is responsible for this, was echoed by the NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg, saying that what they're watching for, something we've talked about before, and that is a claim of some sort of crime down there which Russia, the U.S. believes, might use as pretext for further invasion. I'll be speaking to the NATO secretary general in the next hour and I'll certainly be asking him about that.

BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN ANCHOR: All right, we're looking forward to that. Jim Sciutto for us live from Ukraine, thank you.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: Joining us now is the Ukrainian ambassador to the United States, Oksana Markarova. Thank you so much for being with us, Ambassador. I do appreciate your time. You have heard the U.S. assessment that despite the Russian claims, they are not pulling troops back from the border. In fact, they're increasing their troop presence on border. What is the Ukrainian assessment?

OKSANA MARKAROVA, UKRAINIAN AMBASSADOR TO U.S.: Thank you very much. Good morning, and thank you for having me here. Our assessment is exactly the same. As our president said yesterday, we will believe that they are leaving when we see it, and we don't see it yet. So yes, we still have a massive number of troops around our border.

BERMAN: So to be clear, the Russians are saying they're leaving, you're saying they're not. The Russians are lying?

MARKAROVA: Well, if Russians show us pictures of some relocation there, their effects. We have almost 150,000 plus troops on the eastern line in Belarus, and in Crimea, which is illegally occupied by Russia. And so this is the fact. And it is not -- it is still there.

BERMAN: What can you tell us about what has happened over the last few hours in the Donbas region? Because we have heard reports of shelling there.

MARKAROVA: As our minister said clearly, it is a brutal violation of the ceasefire. There was shelling into the Ukrainian musical school, where actually kids and teachers were present at the moment. So, again, this is one more case where there is fact. The fact is the Russian-led and backed forces in occupied Donetsk actually shelled into Stanytsia Luhanska, Ukrainian village, and there is Russian side of the story, which is not correct here.

BERMAN: So, again, you are saying that Russian forces -- Russian- backed forces are the ones who have been doing the shelling, correct?

MARKAROVA: Absolutely.

BERMAN: What are your concerns that the Russians are using what is going on this morning, and frankly what has been going on for some time in Donbas, as a pretext for invasion?

MARKAROVA: Let me remind here that this attack that Russia started did not start yesterday and did not start this April. It started in 2014 when Russia stole Crimea from us, and when Russia attacked the Donetsk territories. So we live in this for the past eight years, and I have to say that I admire how Ukrainians and essentially our armed forces show grace under this immense pressure right now. So, yes, we know that there would be provocations, we expect the provocations. That's why we are very resolved not to allow any provocations to happen. And we are sharing with the world -- with the world all the information as soon as it happens.

BERMAN: There has been a little bit of disparity between the language coming from the United States and the language coming from your government, where the United States has said, readily, that the Russians could invade any day now, before they were using the phrase "imminent," whereas President Zelensky and Ukrainian Government officials haven't seen it as quite such as an immediate threat. Do you feel the threat is growing and more immediate this morning?

MARKAROVA: Well, again, let me repeat, we live under this threat for the past eight years, so I think our assessment of the risks is the same. The same is Ukrainians cannot afford to panic. We are getting prepared for to defend our country. We are very peaceful nation. We did not plan and do not plan any offenses, even in the areas which are ours and illegally held by Russia. But at the same time, we do not panic. We are preparing. We are living our lives, and we're doing our best in order to defend our land.

BERMAN: So over the last 24 hours there have been some reports that there might be a new consideration about some kind of statement or acknowledgement about the Ukrainian will to join NATO. And this is how "The New York Times" reported it.

[08:05:00]

"A Ukrainian deputy prime minister Iryna Vereshchuk suggested a referendum as a way to sell what would surely appear to be a concession to the Ukrainian public. The president assumes there is such a possibility if there are no other options or tools." In other words, hold a referendum about whether Ukraine should join NATO. How much of a consideration is that?

MARKAROVA: Actually, she was not talking about NATO at all. She was talking about Minsk agreement. So let me repeat once again, with regard to NATO, our position was and is and will remain unchanged. It's something that we have in our Constitution. It's something that our people, the majority of Ukrainians support, and it's something that we work really hard to get into.

So we would like to be part of NATO and we would like to be part of European Union. This is actually, for what Ukrainians are fighting since 1991 when we made choice, 98 percent of Ukrainians made choice to be independent, and we reconfirmed that choice in 2014, during the revolution of dignity, that we want to be not only independent and sovereign, but we also want to be European and democratic. So membership in NATO is our goal, and we work day and night to get there.

BERMAN: As we sit here this morning, do you have a message for Vladimir Putin, Ambassador?

MARKAROVA: Well, I probably not to Vladimir Putin, because we do not expect anything from Vladimir Putin. But to Russian people, that Ukrainians have been under occupation for so many centuries by Soviet Union, Russian empire. And we will not be under occupation by Russian Federation. All we want to do is live peacefully in our own country, to be the bread growers and start-uppers as we are, and we don't want to fight with Russians. But we will defend our country if we have to.

BERMAN: The Ukrainian Ambassador to the United States, Oksana Markarova, we appreciate you being with us this morning. Be safe.

MARKAROVA: Thank you very much.

KEILAR: And let's talk about this now with retired Army lieutenant colonel Alexander Vindman and former California congressman Jane Harman. She was ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee and brings a considerable amount of expertise on this particular topic, as you do as well, Alex. Where do you see things right now? And can you respond from what you heard from the Ukrainian ambassador, and also some of the differences that we're hearing, as Berman pointed out, between the U.S. and Ukraine? JANE HARMAN, AUTHOR, "INSANITY DEFENSE": I thought the ambassador

gave an excellent presentation, and was very clear that the fight is not between the Ukrainian people and the Russian people. That's for sure. The good news is that unvarnished, un-politicized intelligence, which we lacked in the last administration in the U.S., is back, and we actually know what's going on the border. And Russia can claim x, but we know y.

Where are we now? I think it's unchartered. I'm headed to Munich today for the Munich security conference as is Ukrainian President Zelensky, Vice President Kamala Harris, and Tony Blinken, and 40 members of Congress, current members of Congress. This is the first time in the two decades I've been going that the Russians are boycotting the conference. Vladimir Putin actually spoke there 10 years ago. They're not there.

So clearly something is still going on, and they don't want to be confronted about it. What worries me is miscalculation, not calculation. And one of these shellings of a music school or something else could go wrong, and the reaction could be bigger than the action. And we would end up in a situation like World War I, where almost everything happened by miscalculation and it was the bloodiest war in our history. Let's remember then, and let's remember the Ukrainians are a country and they're more unified now, and they have the will to fight back.

KEILAR: Colonel, what do you think?

LT. COL. ALEXANDER VINDMAN (RET), FORMER EUROPEAN AFFAIRS DIRECTOR, NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL: Hi, Brianna. First of all, it's amazing to watch the Ukrainian people withstand this state of siege for the past eight year, unflinching in the face of constant belligerence, constant hostility. They should be applauded. That partially explains why they have been so almost stoic in the face of this massive buildup on their border.

I think we're still in a very, very acute phase where the Russians can respond with a major military offensive at any moment. Right now, it seems that they're just probing for weaknesses, probing for ways to -- they don't really need to kind of create a pretext, fabricate something from whole cloth, but they're look for where the weaknesses are, where the weaknesses are with regards to Ukraine and resolve.

And right now, there has been a concerted, coherent response from Ukraine and the international community, not blinking at all with regards to Russia's demands for reshaping the international system, the demands for Ukraine outside of NATO, which is frankly, smoke and mirrors, has nothing to do with Ukraine and NATO.

[08:10:06]

Ukraine and NATO is probably quite some time off, even under optimal circumstances. So it's all about folding Ukraine back into its orbit. But one thing that we probably need to remember is right now Vladimir Putin has held the initiative for the past year. He's the one that's been calling the shots, he's the one that's been orchestrating these different probing attacks. And the response has been mainly unbalanced towards reaction.

And I think we need to start really seriously considering, and I know there are many voices that are starting to think in this direction, about graduated response options, graduated costs and position measures so that Russia starts to feel some pain from this, not just a small hit in the pocketbook from deploying all the forces, but something to indicate that Russia can't maintain this at a 10 level hostility against Ukraine and start to shell eastern portions of Ukraine without consequence. And I think these kinds of graduated response options will signal that there are a lot more things to happen, a lot more activities to follow, and that may start to constrain his thinking a little bit more on what he's considering, which is all sorts of different ideas to fold Ukraine back into the Russian sphere of influence.

KEILAR: Can that happen, Congresswoman, considering we have seen some disagreement in Congress, obviously. We're expecting bipartisan resolution, but when it comes to sanctions, there have been a lot of differences.

HARMAN: There are differences. And I think the administration's position is to be cautious here, because, again, if you think about the danger of miscalculation, if Vladimir Putin feels that he's facing a full force of these sanctions, which are considerable, and I commend the administration for acting -- for being very clear about what they are and working with what they call our partners and allies very closely on this, because international sanctions will have more bite. But at any rate, I think we have to be very careful.

And I understand the point that Colonel Vindman makes. By the way, congratulations to him on his heroism under enormous pressure in the last administration. So a huge fan. But just saying that I think all of this is being debated, but at least as of yesterday, the administration's position was they did not want to ratchet up the sanctions ahead some of very clear and definitive action by Russia.

KEILAR: Alex, do we -- I'll let you respond there to the congresswoman as well -- but do we get lost in this discussion about what Russia is saying they're doing, versus what they're really doing? It just creates -- it seems pretty obvious that Russia is not being honest, we're seeing independent photos of what is really going on.

VINDMAN: My daughter might say something, they're lying liars that lie. That sounds a little bit whimsical, but in fact there is very little that the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, will say or will kind of hold as true, and that means that everything below him is even easier. So deception operations are engrained into Russian kind of strategic operations. So the fact that they're saying one thing about withdrawing forces and in fact they're merely repositioning forces is not a surprise.

Yesterday they kind of try to sense some interesting signals about the first tank army starting to retrograde back to bases. There is no evidence to really suggest that. It seems like more repositioning. And the only forces that may be going back to bases are the ones that are really close to the Ukrainian border and can easily be moved back forward.

So I think we're still in this very, very dangerous phase. We will need to see something far more concrete than the limited withdraws that we're seeing right now to believe what is going on. With regards to the graduated response options that I'm suggesting, yes, I agree with the congresswoman, and thank you for the kind words. I agree that the administration has been reluctant to move in this direction. They don't want to -- they want to go in high and stay high on sanctions. I understand that idea. But that was under the premise that there was going to be kind of a sharp, massive attack.

If we now see indications that this is not the way the Russians want to operate. They're going to slowly graduate pressure or escalate the pressure and start to do these probing attacks in eastern Ukraine, start to drag this out over the course of weeks, they can't probably sustain this for more than another several weeks or months at this level. But if they start to do this and start to inflict pain on Ukraine, and Ukraine has been extremely reserved in its response, then we really need to start signaling that we have options. We could start to implement some sanctions, and that these massive go high, stay high sanctions are right behind. But it also shows that we have skin in the game, we have a stake, and that we can go further.

KEILAR: I know we have so much more to discuss. I know that we do. We're going to continue this conversation here, of course, in the coming days, because this isn't going away. Jane Harman, Alex Vindman, thank you so much to both of you.

[08:15:04]

And I do want to mention that Secretary of State Tony Blinken is going to be delivering some remarks today at the U.N. Security Council. I believe.

Can we -- this is some breaking news. So, I just need to scroll it back.

OK. Remarks at the U.N. Security Council meeting at 10:00 a.m. Eastern and U.S. ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield, that's what she said here this morning.

Thanks again to our guests.

So the Russian figure skating star at the center of the Olympic doping scandal is about to compete. So what happens if she wins?

And brand-new CNN reporting, the New York attorney general says that former President Trump's statement about his finances contrasts with what his attorneys are saying, which is a problem. We're going to explain the significance, ahead.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: And caught on camera, the wonderful moment that Rams receiver Van Jefferson learns his wife is in labor, right after his Super Bowl Win.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) VAN JEFFERSON, L.A. RAMS: Mommy is going to have a baby. We got to go.

UNIDENTIFIED KID: Daddy?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BERMAN: In just moments, a Russian figure skater Kamila Valieva will take the ice in her final Olympic performance in Beijing. This as officials are still investigating whether the 15-year-old or her team broke anti-doping rules following her positive drug test back in December. She failed the drug test.

Joining us now is U.S. Olympic figure skater Polina Edmunds. She was the youngest U.S. competitor in all sports in the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics at the age of 15.

Polina, it's an honor to get to speak with you.

You do not think Valieva should be allowed to compete in a few minutes. Why?

POLINA EDMUNDS, 2014 U.S. OLYMPIC FIGURE SKATER: I do not. At the end of the day, she failed a drug test, she tested positive for a banned substance and I do in the think that age should excuse any athlete in order to keep the fairness and level playing field. And it is extremely unfair and unequal that she is allowed to still skate during this, and it just -- it doesn't set a good precedent for the Olympics, for sports, and for figure skating.

BERMAN: Talk to us more about the age issue, if you will. That is something that has been taken into consideration here. Oh, she's just 15. You were 15 when you competed in 2014.

EDMUNDS: I was 15 as well. At the top of my game in Sochi. And I have to say as soon as I was competing internationally, that was my first year, I had to sign a contract for Anti-Doping Agencies and submit to testing, just like every single other athlete.

And I had to have my name there, my guardian signed as well, and I knew that it was extremely delicate and that I had to be extremely careful. And I would never take anything unless I myself checked and made sure it was okay.

And, again, I'm a U.S. skater, so the systems here are different than in Russia. Again, don't know if this skater knew what was going on, seems like it is more of a systemic coaching issue, her personal coaching team. But regardless of blame, we have to hold everyone accountable. Otherwise it is not fair to all the clean athletes.

BERMAN: You say that Valieva should be a prime candidate for testing and focus. Why? What do you mean by that?

EDMUNDS: Yes, so the way that doping works especially during an Olympic year and testing for it is that we all have to submit our schedules from start of the morning when you wake up, 6:00 a.m. to when you're probably going to go to sleep, 9:00 or 10:00, every single hour, exactly where you're go to be. And that is so doping agencies can come and test you, randomly, wherever they like.

And so for a skater like Valieva, who has been winning everything all year, she has gotten every medal and title, she's a prime candidate for frequent testing because she is set up to win the Olympic gold medal. That's a huge deal. That is a huge title.

She should be tested extremely frequently as randomly as possible so the fact that she was caught in December is very normal and the fact that she is given a pass for being 15 is ridiculous.

BERMAN: Polina, I know this is disturbing for you to watch today. I will say one thing that we have gotten from this is the ability to talk to so many Olympians we admired so much over the years. It has been a pleasure speaking with you this morning. Thank you.

EDMUNDS: Thank you.

BERMAN: So CNN has just learned that Secretary of State Antony Blinken will address the United Nations Security Council just a short time from now. What will he say? Is there new information that he's going to present? We'll be joined by one of president Biden's closest allies in Congress next.

KEILAR: Plus, retail sales are way up in the U.S., even as inflation reaches record levels. Christine Romans will be here with what it all means as we take a look at the new weekly jobless claims.

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[08:27:36]

KEILAR: New this morning, Secretary of State Tony Blinken is getting set to address the U.N. Security Council about 90 minutes from now. This is coming as Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin calls out Russia for sharpening their readiness for a conflict with Ukraine.

Joining us now is Democratic Senator Chris Coons of Delaware. He serves on the Foreign Relations Committee.

Senator, thanks for being with us this morning. We do appreciate it.

Let's talk about sanctions, or lack thereof. There is an agreement right now in the Senate on sanctions. Why not do something now?

SEN. CHRIS COONS (D-DE): Well, Brianna, I was disappointed that after weeks of very hard work by Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez, we weren't able to come into an agreement with our Republican colleagues on the very specific details of a preemptive sanctions package.

But there is a public statement out by our leadership, both parties in the Senate, making it clear that we strongly support President Biden's forceful public statements that if there is any further Russian invasion of Ukraine, any violation of their sovereignty and territory, we will support promptly imposing very tough sanctions.

So, look, when Leader McConnell said on the floor he thinks the president, our president has all the powers he needs, that sort of took the air out of our efforts to reach a bipartisan proactive solution with legislation. There's a dozen of us leaving today on a bipartisan trip to Europe to meet with some of our closest NATO allies. I think there is strong bipartisan support for tough sanctions in the face of likely Russian aggression in the coming days or weeks.

KEILAR: We just had retired Lt. Colonel Alex Vindman on and he was saying he actually thinks now is the time to have graduated sanctions. And part of the reason is what we're seeing just here in the last hours, which is probing of Eastern Ukraine. We had the Ukrainian ambassador on saying that's Russia doing that.

So, I mean, doesn't that kind of make the case for sanctions that you're talking about?

COONS: Yes. Yes, it does. I think we should have passed bipartisan legislation that had both proactive sanctions to punish Russia for what it's already done to Ukraine, and provide proactive authority for very tough sanctions on Nord Stream, on the provision of technological materials, advanced materials into Russia, things like semiconductor chips, and proactively authorized sanctions on the banking system.