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Biden Agrees 'In Principle' to Summit with Putin; Queen Elizbeth Tests Positive for COVID; More Virulent Subvariant of Omicron Identified. Aired 6-6:30a ET

Aired February 21, 2022 - 06:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning to our viewers here in the United States and all around the world. It is Monday, February 21. It is Presidents' Day. I'm John Berman with Brianna Keilar.

[05:59:48]

Is there a new path to diplomacy this morning? Overnight, President Biden agreed in principle to meet with Russian leader Vladimir Putin if Putin holds off on invading Ukraine. And that does appear to be a big "if." Because new satellite images we're getting our first look at this morning show activity intensifying among Russian units close to Ukraine's Northeastern border.

And the U.S. has intelligence indicating orders have already been sent to Russian commanders to proceed with an attack on Ukraine.

BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN ANCHOR: A White House official says Secretary of State Tony Blinken and his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, will discuss a possible Biden-Putin summit when they meet on Thursday.

But there are concerns that an invasion could begin before that meeting even happens, killing any prospect of a summit.

Russia now has close to 75 percent of its conventional forces positioned to attack Ukraine.

So let's begin our coverage with chief national security correspondent Jim Sciutto, live on the ground in Ukraine. They are poised for war, Jim.

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT/ANCHOR: Well, Brianna, you have two things, right? You have the talk of diplomacy and then you have the facts on the ground. So let's describe the facts on the ground as per U.S. intelligence.

It's our reporting that the latest U.S. intelligence assessment has found, as you mentioned, that orders have been given to tactical commanders in the field to proceed with preparations for an invasion.

Now, we should be clear that is one of several indicators that the U.S. has been watching for that would show them that an invasion is coming. That's one they've seen.

Others they have not yet observed are things such as jamming of electronic communications here or massive cyberattacks on Ukraine. That said, it does come as we've heard President Biden, the vice president, the secretary of state over the weekend all say it is the U.S. assessment that Putin has made the decision to invade.

But on top of that, our reporting that now Russia has 75 percent of its conventional combat forces now postured against Ukraine and within range of Ukraine. That is enormously unusual for a country with a military of Russia's size, to have three-quarters of it focused here without at least the strong possibility of intending to use it.

Now, then, you have -- and it's not the first time, by the way, talk of diplomacy here. Macron and France doing his best, it seems, to throw a diplomatic hail Mary. The U.S. and Russia, according to him, showing openness to this.

The question of course is does Russia, in advance of any such meeting, show it's willing to give something up, show it's willing to back off from the border? That is not something we're seeing here in Ukraine as of yet, Brianna.

KEILAR: All right. We'll be watching. Jim Sciutto, thank you so much.

BERMAN: All right. As Jim mentioned, this idea of a Biden-Putin summit was proposed by Macron after he spoke with the Russian leaders.

Jeremy Diamond, live at the White House. Jeremy, what's the White House saying about this?

JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, the White House is saying that President Biden has agreed, quote, "in principle" to this potential meeting with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin.

But there is a very clear and unmistakable precondition to all of this. And that is that a Russian invasion has not yet begun, if indeed, this meeting is to proceed.

But the White House is saying, essentially, in signaling its openness to the submit, that it wants to pursue diplomacy until the very last possible minute before an invasion.

But make no mistake. The White House is calculus, and its predictions of the likelihood of a Russian invasion, none of that has changed.

As Jim was just talking about, the conditions on the ground are not heading in the direction of more peace. Russia appears to be continuing to put its troops in position to attack.

But let me read you part of this statement from the White House press secretary. She said, in this statement issued last night, "President Biden accepted in principle a meeting with President Putin following that engagement" -- that is the engagement between Secretary Blinken and Secretary Lavrov -- "again, if an invasion hasn't happened. We are always ready for diplomacy. We are also ready to impose swift and severe consequences should Russia stood choose war. And currently, Russia appears to be continuing preparations for a full-scale assault on Ukraine very soon." If this summit is, indeed, to happen, the details of that will begin to be worked out during this meeting on Thursday expected between Secretary Blinken and the foreign minister of Russia, Sergey Lavrov. That meeting happening on Thursday in Europe.

But again, that meeting is only happening if that Russian invasion hasn't first taken place.

BERMAN: Thursday seems like a long ways away at this point. Jeremy Diamond at the White House. Keep us posted.

KEILAR: And joining us now, CNN political and national security analyst David Sanger, as well as Nina Khruscheva. She is a professor of international affairs at the New School in New York. She's also the co-author of "In Putin's footsteps: Searching for the Soul of an Empire across Russia's Eleven Time Zones."

David, if you would for us, just put this moment that we're in, in context.

DAVID SANGER, CNN POLITICAL AND NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: Well, I'm in Munich, and the nervousness in Europe is quite palpable. This weekend at the Munich Security Conference, which is sort of the premier national security gathering in Europe each year, this was the only source of discussion.

[06:05:11]

And the questions were basically two-fold. First, are we about to see the biggest outbreak of violent land war in Europe since the -- since Nazi Germany surrendered in 1945? That's pretty sobering.

But I think the second question was how is it that Putin would go about doing this if he orders it? Because it will make a big difference about how Europe reacts.

He could invade the entire country, in which case, I think there's no doubt that there's going to be huge sanctions, great tension. And Russian retaliation for the sanctions.

Or he could bite off the country in chunks. Just try to take some of the south, see how the world reacts, see if there are fissures in the NATO alliance, and then do some more.

Or he could just reach for a cyberattack and sort of the slow squeeze on the country, which is why it was so important yesterday, Brianna, that Belarus announced that Russian troops were going to stay there. Because that -- that helps encircle the entire nation.

BERMAN: Nina, how real do you think this discussion of further talks is, whether it be the secretary of state, foreign secretary level or a summit between Putin and President Biden? How important is that talk? And talk about what, do you think?

NINA KHRUSHCHEVA, PROFESSOR OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS, NEW SCHOOL: Well, I think it is real the way we see it today. But I think the question was asked before, is it all in Macron's head or is it really real?

That is also a big question, because we've seen that Emmanuel Macron, remember when he met with Putin early in February, he came out with the words "mission accomplished." And then it turned out that nothing was accomplished. So we'll see how that plays out.

I think that a slow squeeze on Ukraine probably is kind of a boa constrictor kind of way that Putin will choose is most likely. I don't believe that Kyiv was a possibility, attack on Kyiv is a possibility.

And in fact, I actually think that this is very damaging to talk about it. Because we're not concentrating on the right problem.

And the right problem is a -- is a push and pull. And I think it was important that Antony Blinken said that we are, a few days ago, maybe even yesterday, that we are prepared. We, the United States, are prepared, whatever is boiling, even in Donbas and Luhansk region, we're prepared to react to that, as well.

Because I think that is where Putin's weakest point is. That he's going to squeeze and then wait, that nothing big will happen. And I think this should be addressed, how to deal with those.

And it's very (ph) more of happening in -- in those border regions, because the Russians are engaged in tremendous information -- misinformation campaign, how Kyiv is going to attack this border territories. They need to evacuate people and so on.

And I think the concentration on that part rather than a big invasion in dealing with incremental Putin's biting off Ukraine is more important than discussing and re-discussing the poise for invasion and going into Kyiv.

KEILAR: So the boa constrictor squeeze, or as David writes in his piece, the python-like squeeze, that's what you think more likely makes more sense now. You know, this big -- one big massive nationwide attack that we heard David describe there is what administration officials and the President Biden administration think is more likely.

Why do you think there's a difference? What is the difference in the calculus between what you're saying and what they think is more likely?

KHRUSHCHEVA: Well, I think that we've seen it many times in Putin. He's a Judo master. He goes for the opening when it's weak. If he's adventurous and a gambler, he's a very careful one. He doesn't take things that he doesn't think he can really take.

And we've seen it many, many times over, including in 2014. Russia annex things that it was able to do. But there were also promises from the west that he's going to go on Kyiv, and he never did.

Because it is -- I mean, it's -- I always look at him as a judo master. Because all his political moves are very much in his sport. It is a very slow game. It's a tactical -- it's not even strategic, because ultimately, Russia is going to be ruined by all of this kind of military and even small military ventures. It's really not good for the country in any way.

But he is going to take what he can now. He's not really going for this giant, let's go take the whole continent. Because that, he cannot really maintain and contain.

BERMAN: David, I am curious what you think the impact is. Today is another day without an invasion, so far. I know the situation is terrible. There's shelling back and forth in the Donbas region.

[06:10:06]

I know that, you know, meanwhile, there are troops moving toward the border. But still no invasion yet. And I wonder what the long-term impact of each day that passes without an invasion, what that means?

SANGER: It's a really interesting question, John.

So first, to Nina's very good point, Putin, I think, at this point, having lost any of the tactical surprise that he had in Crimea in 2014, he knows that at this point, he's really got two big choices.

One is to go with that slow squeeze. And the other is, if he's going to use this big force he's amassed, then he's got to use it soon. You can't keep 75 percent of your military on this kind of high alert right on the border forever.

It's cold up there. It's a very hard situation to maintain. But there is a psychological wearing away that is going on in Europe. And I think he is enjoying that. He's the center of attention.

Suddenly, no one's talking about the long-term competition with China. They're talking about how to go deal with him. They're talking about other summits that would take place.

And so I think he's going to play this out for as long as he thinks he can possibly get away with it. And perhaps hope to wear the Europeans down, to get the Europeans to think, well, give him part of what he wants if we can just avoid another continental war.

BERMAN: David Sanger with us from Munich today. David, thank you.

Nina, thank you so much for being with us this morning.

KHRUSHCHEVA: Thank you.

BERMAN: Chaos on the court after a college coach takes a swing at another.

KEILAR: Plus, a helicopter's harrowing plunge off of a crowded Florida beach. We're going to talk to one of the first rescuers on the scene.

And next, Queen Elizabeth's battle with COVID. What the palace now says about her symptoms.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[06:16:12]

KEILAR: Just as the U.K. is lifting pandemic restrictions, Queen Elizabeth has tested positive for COVID-19. Buckingham Palace said that the 95-year-old has mild, cold-like symptoms.

CNN's Max Foster is live for us in Windsor, England, with the very latest. Look, this is good news. Mild symptoms, Max. And yet, of course, she is up in years. That puts her in a very risky category. What -- what is the concern?

MAX FOSTER, CNN ROYAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, it's interesting. They have done really well in protecting the queen from COVID. There's been a very tight bubble around her.

But as you say, it has been opening up recently. I'm told by a source there's been a bit of a breakout in the castle, and that appears to be where she got it from. She's not asymptomatic. She does have symptoms. And I'm told she is following the current guidelines, which would mean that she would have to self-isolate. Not very comfortable for someone who's nearly 96 years old, particularly when you consider, Brianna, that just last week she met some senior members of the military, and she couldn't move towards them.

She's had these mobility problems. She said she couldn't move, literally. A source telling me that isn't because she was injured but that she felt stiff.

But not a very comfortable position. You know, you've got symptoms, you're feeling very stiff. You're having to self-isolate. But what they're trying to do is reassure us to an extend that, telling us that she is well enough still to work. She's carrying out light duties at her desk.

So I think the next update we'll get is perhaps some images of her working, showing that she's OK. You know, very typical of her. Keep calm and carry on.

But she is receiving medical attention, I'm told. So it's a watch. You know, she is elderly. I don't think we're going to get a running commentary on how well she is. But we'll be told if she takes a turn for the worst. But we're not hearing that at the moment, Brianna.

KEILAR: All right, Max, thank you so much for keeping an eye on that for us. Appreciate it.

BERMAN: All right. Joining us now, CNN medical analyst Dr. Jonathan Reiner.

Dr. Reiner, great to see you this morning. She's 95. And symptomatic. I think that anyone of that age who was showing symptoms has got to be some reason for concern. What do you think?

DR. JONATHAN REINER, CNN MEDICAL ANALYST: A lot of reason for concern, John. The elderly comprise the group at the greatest risk of dying.

If you look at the United States, since the beginning of COVID, over 75 percent of all the deaths in this country have occurred in people over the age of 65. And fully 50 percent have occurred in people over the age of 75.

Now, the queen is 95. And those 20 years make a big difference. The older you get, the less reserve you have. So the queen is at great risk.

If you look at folks who have been vaccinated -- and we know the queen was vaccinated last January -- about 85 percent of the breakthrough infections have come in folks over the age of -- not breakthrough infections, breakthrough deaths have come in people over the age of 65.

So the queen is in the highest risk group.

KEILAR: So what would the treatment options be if she's receiving treatment from her doctors?

REINER: Almost certainly, the queen has received Paxlovid. Paxlovid is the oral combination of two antiviral drugs, which has been shown to reduce the risk of mortality by about 90 percent. It's a five-day course.

And this hasn't been disclosed to the public, but I'm sure that the queen's physicians have treated her with Paxlovid, which should greatly lessen her risk of dying from this breakthrough infection.

BERMAN: What symptoms would you be looking for most carefully and closely, if you were treating her?

REINER: Worsening -- worsening of her breathing. In the -- you know, the early days of infection, symptoms can be -- can be mild. And then will -- can worsen over the course of the next week or two.

[06:20:02]

We've known, since the beginning of this pandemic, that it takes about a week for folks to get sick enough to need to be hospitalized. And then about another week or so before we start to see mortality.

So look at the trajectory of her recovery. If her symptoms are -- were initially mild and they remain mild and then start to dissipate, then the queen is moving absolutely in the right direction. If her systems worsen, well, that's a different story, and hopefully, we won't see that.

KEILAR: I want to ask about this new Omicron subvariant that we are hearing about, subvariant BA.2. Right now, I think 4 percent of Americans are infected with this. I guess we'll expect that will grow, because it's 30 percent more contagious than Omicron.

What is this going to mean? Could this mean another surge?

REINER: I think the consensus is probably not.

So the three things to consider when you look at one of these new variants or subvariants, is, first of all, is it more transmissible? Secondly, does it cause more severe disease? And finally, do our vaccines work?

So yes, as you said, it does appear to be 30 percent more transmissible, which is mind-blowing, because Omicron is amazingly transmissible.

In terms of does it cause more severe disease? You know, there was a little bit of buzz about this last week which animal data suggests that perhaps it binds to respiratory cells more tightly or in hamsters maybe caused more severe lung disease. We have not seen that in real- world experience coming out of places with a lot of Omicron, like South Africa, or Denmark or even the United Kingdom. So that is not borne out in terms of more hospitalizations.

And finally, does it respond well to our vaccines? It appears that it does. It does not appear to be significantly more immune-evasive than Omicron.

And what we've seen in places where there's a lot of BA.2, this new subvariant, cases have continued to drop. So I expect what we'll see in the United States is a portion of people who become positive who contract the virus, who have Omicron will continue -- who have BA.2 version of Omicron will continue to rise.

But the overall number of cases in the United States should continue to steeply decline, as we're seeing now.

BERMAN: Yes, that was my question. Does this really change anything in terms of the steep drop we're seeing in cases and, also, frankly the quick relaxing of various measures?

REINER: No. I don't think it has -- I don't think it has any impact on -- on either of those. I will say, going back to the queen for one moment, United Kingdom still has a lot of virus.

The United States still has a ton of virus. We're still seeing 100,000 cases per day. And whether it's BA.1 or BA.2, there's still a lot of virus in the United States.

And I have cautioned, in terms of the pace with which we release -- we relaxed our mitigation strategies, there's still a lot of virus in the United States. If the queen of England can contract the virus now, there's a lot of virus in the United Kingdom.

And I think it's a cautionary tale, and we need to basically be patient. Things are getting better, but we need to be patient.

BERMAN: Dr. Reiner, always a pleasure to speak with you. Thanks so much for being with us.

REINER: My pleasure. Thank you.

KEILAR: Up next, Vladimir Putin's forces are now in position for war, if he chooses that route. Major General Spider Marks will break down the troop movements at the border. And the NFL team that just hired the former head coach who is suing

the league for racial discrimination.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[06:27:58]

KEILAR: The world is on edge this morning as Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to amass troops and equipment near its border with Ukraine.

U.S. officials say they're still committed to diplomatic options. But according to the latest U.S. intelligence assessment, Russia now has close to 75 percent of its conventional forces postured there at the border.

So let's have a walk-through of exactly what is going on there with Major General James "Spider" Marks, our CNN military analyst and head of geopolitical strategy at Academy Securities.

OK, can you just tell, where has -- where all has Putin amassed these troops?

MAJ. GEN. JAMES "SPIDER" MARKS (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Well, let's -- let's take a look at it. And first of all, let's take it from Putin's perspective, if we can.

NATO member, NATO member, NATO member. That's what started all of this, is this movement of NATO to the east. And that's the view that Putin has that's concerning him.

So what you see is these are installations that are routinely occupied by Russian forces. The red positions that you see on the map here are where exercises are taking place. This is where Putin and President Lukashenko were located this weekend together, observing the exercises.

So he has deployed, to include forces down here in Crimea, which we all know that he took in 2014. So this is incredibly threatening, obviously.

Ukraine is surrounded on three sides. So that's what has everybody incredibly concerned, as legitimately they should be.

KEILAR: And it's about the movement. Where are the troops going? So what is the new satellite imagery showing that we've seen?

MARKS: Brianna, let me show you one of the pieces of imagery that just came in. This is a tank location. But also, you see tanks, as well as support vehicles, which would be refuelers, armored personnel carriers for infantrymen.

And clearly, what the Russians use is they use their infantrymen and then tanks to support that, which is different from where how the United States used it, where we want to exploit with our armor, our tanks, and then the infantry are then used appropriately to do some really precise work.

[06:30:00]