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Putin Orders Troops into Eastern Ukraine. Aired 6-6:30a ET

Aired February 22, 2022 - 06:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning to our viewers here in the U.S. and around the world. It is Tuesday, February 22, and I'm Brianna Keilar with John Berman.

[05:59:59]

Vladimir Putin sending Russian troops into Ukraine. He has ordered his forces into two regions of Eastern Ukraine, just hours after he signed decrees recognizing their independence from Ukraine.

Secretary of State Tony Blinken calling Putin's move a clear attack on Ukraine's sovereignty.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: But it is worthy of note that the administration's language so far has been tempered. They have been yet to call the new Russian troop movements an invasion.

The United States has promised swift sanctions this morning, but we're waiting to see exactly what they are and if they are the full slate available.

This is a deeply serious situation that threatens to upend decades of order in Europe. U.S. officials have already had conversations with Ukraine's President Zelensky about evacuating Kyiv, should it become necessary.

CNN has teams this morning in Kyiv and across Ukraine into Russia. We're also monitoring the latest from the White House, the State Department, and the Pentagon.

We're going to begin with CNN's chief national security correspondent, Jim Sciutto, in Lviv, in the western part of Ukraine. And Jim, these next few hours are crucial in terms of where and how much we see from these Russian troops and in terms of what we hear from the White House. What are you looking for?

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT/ANCHOR: Yes. Yes, two big questions. The first is, is this just the first of many moves by Putin to further slice off territory from Ukraine? Does a broader invasion follow?

But, two, as you note, John, does what we have seen so far qualify, in the view of the U.S. and NATO, as an invasion that would then draw comprehensive sanctions or certainly more than we've seen so far? I'll tell you what the U.S. intelligence assessment is, the most

recent one. Speaking to a senior U.S. official last night, one, that the U.S. military does believe that Russian forces will move into those newly-declared -- falsely-declared independent territories there.

And that, by the way, is significant, because it would bring those Russian forces, uniformed Russian forces, right on the line of contact as it's known between to this point has been Russian-backed forces and the Ukrainian military.

Also, the U.S. continues to see preparations for something broader here. As of yesterday, they were seeing amphibious ships being loaded, also aircraft loaded with equipment for airborne units, which will be units involved in a broader invasion of Ukraine.

But again, the question is, does that happen? Does Putin strategically retreat or pause for a moment? We don't know. And as you say, John, the next hours, days, crucial.

BERMAN: And in terms of what Ukraine is asking for from the United States --

SCIUTTO: Yes.

BERMAN: -- and the western alliance, Jim, what exactly do they want?

SCIUTTO: So, the Ukrainian president was appearing alongside the Estonian president just a short time ago, nationally televised here. And he wants something that he's been saying publicly for a number of days now, but he wants a fulsome response from NATO and the U.S. in terms of sanctions. Right?

He wanted them before any Russian action, so that moment has passed. We've seen the Russian action. But he wants something big. Specifically, he wants Nord Stream 2, that crucial Russia-to-Europe pipeline, halted for now. He doesn't want that to be sort of talked about. He wants something done.

And we'll see. We have the White House announcing something later today, beyond what it announced last night. We'll see. It will be a test, and certainly a test from the Ukrainian viewpoint.

I will say, it's worth noting what the Estonian president said next to the Ukrainian president, because of course, Estonia borders Russia, though it is a NATO ally. And he made the point that, given Putin's comments yesterday, this is not just about Ukraine. That's serious. But it's about NATO. Because Russia was challenging, really, the whole security architecture in Europe, post-collapse of the Soviet Union.

Those comments yesterday, John, it's worth reading and looking at the highlights. It was an alarming speech from the Russian president.

BERMAN: This is about borders. It's about sovereignty. It is about a world order that has existed for decades and decades.

Jim Sciutto in Lviv. Thanks so much for being with us this morning. We'll check in with you again in a bit.

SCIUTTO: Thanks.

KEILAR: Now, Putin's escalation drew a quick response from the White House. President Biden planning to impose new sanctions on the two eastern Ukrainian territories where the Russian leader is sending in forces.

But the White House, as Berman mentioned there, has stopped short of calling this an invasion.

Let's go to Jeremy Diamond, who is live for us at the White House. What is Biden prepared to do, Jeremy? And why stop short of calling it an invasion?

JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Brianna. Well, as you just said, the White House has so far had -- has had a pretty measured response to what we've seen from Russia thus far.

Yesterday we saw President Biden signing an executive order, issuing these limited sanctions prohibiting new investment trade and financing by Americans into those two regions in Eastern Ukraine, which President Putin has now recognized as independent states.

But we are expecting additional sanctions today. The big question is, how far will those sanctions go?

[06:05:04]

And all indications thus far, in speaking with senior administration officials here and hearing from the deputy national security adviser, Jon Finer, on CNN last night, is that those additional sanctions, at least for now, do not appear to be those far-reaching, sweeping sanctions that President Biden and secretary Blinken and other top officials have been previewing for months, saying that those would come in response to a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Instead, you know, what we're hearing here is Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, Putin's move thus far amounts to, quote, "a blatant violation of Russia's international commitments."

But the point that John Finer, the deputy national security advisor, also made yesterday was that Russia has been occupying these regions of Eastern Ukraine for years now already. They've had forces there, even though they've denied it. They've already had forces in that region.

So they're saying that this isn't necessarily a new step, and they are waiting to see exactly what those forces are doing there and whether or not they come into contact with Ukrainian forces.

At the same time, Brianna, they are under no illusions here that what Vladimir Putin is doing here is some kind of peacekeeping mission. They understand fully that this is a pretext for war.

A senior official yesterday saying that President Putin's speech was meant to justify war to the Russian people.

So they're watching this very closely, but they are also beginning to come under some pressure from lawmakers, including some key Democrats like Chris Coons, a senator who's very close to President Biden, saying that new sweeping sanctions need to come into effect now.

Remember, it's President Biden who said if any Russian forces cross into Ukraine, that would be considered an invasion -- Brianna.

KEILAR: Yes, and Coons saying that proportionality really not on the table here. This is a bit binary: you go in or you don't, Russia.

Jeremy, thank you so much for that report from the White House.

Let's talk about this more now with "New York Times" Moscow bureau chief Anton Troianovski; and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and author of "Putin's World: Russia Against the West and with the Rest," Angela Stent.

Anton, to you first, and maybe this is something you'll both want to visit. Any indications to the limitations of what Putin wants to do here, if he wants to bite off a piece of Eastern Ukraine, or if he's willing to go further?

ANTON TROIANOVSKI, MOSCOW BUREAU CHIEF, "NEW YORK TIMES": That's exactly what we're watching right now. And even as we're speaking, there's conflicting signals coming from the Kremlin, from the Russian foreign ministry on what exactly does this recognition of those two separatists enclaves mean?

Those separatists claim, actually, three times more territory than they physically control right now. So, if the Kremlin is saying that they recognize those territories within the boundaries that the separatists claim, that means the Kremlin is already saying that all this Ukrainian territory that the separatists currently don't control should become part of those states. That is really a prelude to war.

But they haven't totally made that clear yet. So Putin is still keeping us guessing on what exactly he's going to do next.

BERMAN: You know, that's why I keep saying the next few hours are crucial here. We are going to learn so much in the next few hours about what Putin intends to do.

But Angela, also what the White House intends to do here, because the Biden administration promised swift and severe -- a swift and severe response, but so far it's not swift. And the indications are is it may not be as severe as it could be. What do you think?

ANGELA STENT, SENIOR FELLOW, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: Well, so the problem here is Russian troops have been in these entities since 2014, although they haven't officially been there.

And then when you hear a White House spokesman say, Well, it really isn't an invasion, that -- you know, they're still trying to calibrate what they should do and what their allies are going to do. But I have to say, having watched Putin's extraordinary diatribe, one-

hour diatribe last night, where he attacked the Ukrainians, he attacked the United States, he attacked everything that's happened since the fall of the Soviet Union, he is laying the ground for a much bigger invasion.

And maybe the White House still thinks that there's time for more diplomacy. But -- but one really has to question how much more diplomacy there can be, given what Putin said last night.

KEILAR: Yes. I mean, Angela, he didn't say these territories in Eastern Ukraine are originally created by Russia. He said Ukraine was created by Russia, to your point, Angela.

STENT: Yes. He did. I mean, he said Ukraine never existed as a state. These are things he's said before, but he said with it a venom last night.

Yes, it's an artificial state. And then he really denigrated the Ukrainians and said they were corrupt; they were vassals of the United States. They were trying to acquire nuclear weapons. I don't know where he gets his information from. Maybe he makes it up.

But I do want to remind your viewers that when Putin talks about the great catastrophe, 20th Century catastrophe of the breakup of the Soviet Union, he did pretty well by it. Had the Soviet Union not broken up, he would have remained a mid-level, you know, KGB career officer in some provincial town in East Germany, maybe elsewhere. And now he is, you know, the powerful and rich president of Russia. So I think we have to take those words with a grain of salt, too.

BERMAN: Yes. Look, the denialism of Ukraine as an entity was remarkable last night. Now, I know Putin has said things like that before, but never with 190,000 troops literally ringing the country as he was speaking those words.

Anton, who is wavering in terms of U.S. allies right now? Who's shaky in terms of issuing the most severe penalties on Russia?

TROIANOVSKI: I mean, I think it really does come down to what Putin does next. You know, certainly, as you mentioned, the -- as your colleague mentioned, the Estonian president today calling on severe sanctions right away.

Others saying we need to be more calibrated because, of course, the worst-case scenario here is so much worse than what we've seen thus far. We're talking about the potential for violence across a much greater swath of the country.

So, I think you're going to see others in the European union like the Biden administration it seems calling for a more calibrated approach here, trying to avert the worst.

KEILAR: Anton, he -- he was making a case during his speech that these sanctions were going to come upon Russia, whether or not Russia makes this move in Eastern Ukraine. But just detail for us economically what is at stake here, the

economic ties between Russia and Europe? Because this is going to go both ways. Europe will pay. The U.S. will pay.

TROIANOVSKI: Yes. Obviously, Russia is Europe's most important provider of energy, so, it can retaliate here, too.

We haven't really heard much talk about sanctions targeting Russian oil and gas exports, but Russia could itself choose to limit those exports, just as we're still in the winter, at the tail end of winter in Europe.

But Russia has really prepared for this moment. Ever since 2014, Putin has made it a priority to kind of sanctions-proof his economy. And one of the things we heard yesterday, during that hour-long choreographed security council meeting that Putin had, was his prime minister, Mikhail Mishustin, saying we are ready.

We'll see. The Russian stock market is obviously down very strongly other the last couple days. The ruble has drastically weakened against the dollar, but there still seems to be a confidence in the Kremlin that they can weather this economically.

BERMAN: Angela, Anton was talking about the economic cost in Russia already being seen here. What, if anything, does Vladimir Putin fear this morning?

STENT: I don't think Vladimir Putin fears too much. I don't think that they're really worried about the sanctions, as Anton already said there. They've sanction proofed.

Don't forget the people who are closest to Putin are already sanctioned anyway, those individuals.

And he's going to -- you know, he will tell the Russian population that they have to tighten their belts, because it's the aggressive West.

So, I think, you know, again, based on what I saw and heard last night, he really doesn't fear sanctions. And he apparently, you know, fears a Ukraine moving west. And that is why he wants to do everything he can to prevent that and to control Ukraine.

KEILAR: Angela, Anton, thank you so much for the great conversation this morning. We do appreciate it.

And next, Putin sending troops into Eastern Ukraine. Major General "Spider" Marks is going to tell us why it may not end there.

And Joe Biden about to slap Russia with sanctions. Why Putin probably doesn't even care.

BERMAN: And Boris Johnson tells Britain it's time to start living with COVID. What does that mean?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) [06:18:16]

KEILAR: Russia's Vladimir Putin has ordered troops into pro-Russian sections of Eastern Ukraine. According to U.S. intelligence, they could move in within hours.

CNN's Barbara Starr is live for us at the Pentagon. This is something that is -- this moment is really upon us. What are they expecting, Barbara?

BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, the Pentagon, the intelligence community, and I think fair to say, intelligence services across Europe watching around the clock now to see what the next moves may be.

But the Pentagon and the Biden administration also looking ahead already. How are they going to continue to collect the vital intelligence they need if Putin goes into Ukraine and wholesale, across the board; and Ukraine essentially becomes denied space to the United States, how do they collect intelligence on what he's up to?

One of the first things that may go are some of those reconnaissance planes with pilots in the cockpit. They won't fly over Ukraine if Putin is launching missiles, and there's full-blown combat. So look for more reliance on drones, more reliance on satellites, more reliance on very high-flying U-2 spy planes, for example. They're going to have to shift around on how they collect intelligence.

That is going to be a major issue in the coming days. They want to keep an eye on everything.

And communications intercepts -- think of it as eavesdropping -- is one of the key issues. They need to know what Putin is thinking. They need to know what he's telling his top lieutenants, his commanders in the field.

What about U.S. troops? Well, we know there are several thousand in Eastern Europe with somewhat nervous NATO allies on that eastern flank, providing reassurance and deterrence. The U.S. also now watching to see what NATO does next. If NATO activates its reaction force, we could see more U.S. troops headed east -- Brianna.

[06:20:10]

KEILAR: All right, Barbara. We know you'll be watching. Thank you.

BERMAN: All right, joining us now, retired Major General James "Spider" Marks, CNN military analyst and head of geopolitical strategy at Academy Security.

Spider, this is the map we've been looking at for days, with 190,000 Russian troops ringing Ukraine. There's really a new focus this morning.

MAJ. GEN. JAMES "SPIDER" MARKS (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Yes, there really is. I mean, here's -- here's where Luhansk and Donetsk are. This is the Donbas region that we've been talking about. What we anticipate and what Putin has said he's going to do, is he's now going to bring additional forces into this area.

Now, bear in mind, they've been in there since 2014. So this could be an invasion without a shot being fired.

BERMAN: One of the things I've been talking about is the next few hours will really tell us a lot. This area is the area that the Russians already, more or less, control. The Russian-backed separatists there already control.

But they claim this entire area here. So what are you watching for?

MARKS: Well, exactly. So the initial move, this is again, as you've indicated, this is where the separatists have been for the last eight -- eight, seven years.

This region is what Putin has said has always been historically Russian. It was taken from him. Fall of Soviet Union, et cetera, et cetera. We've got the history.

The big concern I see is not only a move into this area, but also the potential for a move down to -- could happen -- this is the Dnieper River. I can see where he would be enthusiastic -- if you look up here at this map, he would be enthusiastic about achieving this kind of a bite. And I'm not certain how the world would respond to that.

BERMAN: How would he do it, militarily?

MARKS: Well, not hard at all. Bear in mind, he has forces down here in Crimea. He's got attack helicopters. He's got fighters. He also has naval presence here, the Sea of Azov.

So he has a joint and combined capability to provide support, were this to be a decision, in terms of an invasion. He's got the capability.

BERMAN: And again, this is another area where you can push in here. What can the Ukrainians do about this?

MARKS: Well, the Ukrainians obviously, if you would look at a map in detail, the Ukrainians have forces that are in this area. This is the separation line. So there has been fighting across this line, but this is controlled by Russian forces and separatists.

The Ukrainians are throughout this area. If Putin was to push like this, or just simply in this area, he is going to face Ukrainian forces. This is where a fight will occur.

BERMAN: And again, I just want people to note. So this is where they are right now.

MARKS: Right.

BERMAN The next stage would be here, the areas the separatists claim. Another stage would be trying to connect it with Crimea here. And these are the different stages.

I just want to pull out to the overall situation here. When we talk about a large-scale invasion of Ukraine, what would that be?

MARKS: Well, a large-scale invasion could take place, but bear in mind, that's -- in my mind, that is not a possibility that exists right now.

He has about 200 -- let's say 200,000 forces here. In order to occupy and control Ukraine, it would take -- take close to about 800,000 forces.

However, if he was going to move in the direction of Kyiv, he could do that this way. And then he has forces here. These would be allocated to -- to operations here. But he's got this capability. So you have the classic pincher movement.

But if you moved into Kyiv, that's a 3-million-person city. You would cause an incredible amount of rubble, and you would have to control it. And ultimately, he'd have to rebuild it. He doesn't have the economy to do that.

BERMAN: And again, just so people know this, I'm going to hone in. This is where we are now. This is where the situation here is now. That's what to watch the next few days.

If the goal isn't the entire nation and occupation of the entire nation, what are all these other troops doing here? If all he's talking about is this area down here, why these tens of thousands of forces?

MARKS: This causes pause. This is what we call a head fake. We're paying attention to this.

Putin and Lukashenko, the leader in Belarus, were up here observing exercises. The world was focused on that.

He deploys these forces here. These forces are trained and ready. They're out of their garrison locations. They're in the field. They're doing what soldiers and military folks get paid to do: enhance their readiness. These are ready forces.

And so you've got this incredible shadow that's being cast over Ukraine. And I would say long term, Putin wants to control Ukraine; and he's doing it in bite-size chunks. He's taking a longer view.

Look, he's going to be around for another 20 years, right? This is -- this is -- here was step one. Here's step two. Step three may be this. And he starts to invalidate the credibility of Zelensky and the government.

BERMAN: And again, just so people see the overall larger map of Europe here, Jim was talking about Estonia and the Baltic states up here. I mean, there is -- Poland is right here. There is concern in terms of other European nations that are NATO allies.

MARKS: Absolutely. And when Putin looks at this, he sees this encroachment of NATO to the east, right?

[06:25:07]

From 1999 till today -- until today, those NATO nations have gone from 16 to 30. And we told -- we told Putin back in the early '90s and beyond, we're not going to expand NATO. Well, guess what? In his eyes, we lied to him, and now he's upset; and he's showing us why he's upset.

BERMAN: All right. Again, we just go in here. This is what we're watching right now. Spider, we're going to check in with you in a little bit, because there could be some new activity in this region in the next few hours. Thanks so much for being here with us.

MARKS: Thanks, John.

BERMAN: So Vladimir Putin ordering troops -- you saw it -- into Eastern Ukraine. Does that mean diplomacy is dead?

KEILAR: And just moments ago, a new announcement from Buckingham Palace about Queen Elizabeth's battle with COVID.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KEILAR: Just in. We have learned that Queen Elizabeth has cancelled virtual engagements, as she is still experiencing mild COVID symptoms.

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