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U.S. Combing Through Intel Reports For Insight Into Putin's State Of Mind; Russia Faces Financial Meltdown As Sanctions Slam Its Economy; Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) Discusses Maryland's Boycott Against Russian Goods. Aired 7:30-8a ET

Aired March 01, 2022 - 07:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[07:30:00]

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: -- images and see that 17 to 40-mile-long convoy. I know there have been different estimates of it wheeling its way down towards the capital in slow motion here.

You know, another piece, John, that's being talked about a lot is what is Putin's state of mind and so on. But one thing that's clear and consistent is that Putin is willing to use these weapon systems, and that does not require guesswork because he's done it before.

The playbook, if you go back to Chechnya, for instance, 20 years ago, was to level the city -- the city of Grozny -- with weapons like the ones we're seeing roll across the border here. No concern for civilian life, no hesitation. And that's the concern, that we haven't seen the worst of it yet. And more importantly, the people of Ukraine haven't seen the worst of it yet.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: Look, targeting civilians, whether it's a rational choice or irrational choice --

SCIUTTO: Yes.

BERMAN: -- it's an evil choice. The outcome is the same --

SCIUTTO: Yes.

BERMAN: -- either way.

Jim Sciutto in Lviv. Thank you very much for this reporting. We'll check in back with you in a little bit.

SCIUTTO: Thanks.

BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN ANCHOR: Fighting in Ukraine has pushed more than half a million people to flee to neighboring countries and the number is rising exponentially hour after hour, according to the United Nations.

At a train station in Poland -- this one here, 20 minutes from the border -- there are large crowds that have arrived from Kyiv seeking shelter, trying to figure out what to do next. Nearly 400,000 Ukrainians have already fled to Poland. Border guards say that they have seen 24,000 cross into Poland so far just today.

And joining us now is the Polish ambassador to the U.S., Marek Magierowski. Sir, I appreciate you being with us.

And, of course --

MAREK MAGIEROWSKI, POLISH AMBASSADOR TO U.S.: Thank you very much for having me.

KEILAR: Of course. I just want to get your -- as we hear these new numbers from this strike in Kharkiv --

MAGIEROWSKI: Exactly, in Kharkiv.

KEILAR: -- is Putin a war criminal?

MAGIEROWSKI: Yes, yes, he is, definitely. And I hope and I'm confident that all those war criminals will end up in the international criminal court in the Hague, and pretty soon.

We have just seen evidence of a war crime -- another one -- committed by the Russian troops in Ukraine. They are using cluster munitions. They are shelling residential areas in various cities indiscriminately. What else do we need to see in order to understand what is going on right now in Ukraine?

KEILAR: What do Western allies, European allies need to do to stop this?

MAGIEROWSKI: We have to arm Ukraine and this is what we are doing right now. Also, other NATO allies. All allied countries. And this is incredible, really, to what extent Mr. Putin has achieved what we have been struggling to accomplish for so many years.

He has resuscitated the European Union. He has reinforced NATO's unity. He has strengthened the national identity of the Ukrainians. He has basically reversed many political trends in Germany.

This is absolutely superb. I mean, this is what we were expecting for so many years and now it is happening, unfortunately, in very said circumstances.

KEILAR: Ukraine -- arming Ukraine may not be enough. Do European allies -- would Poland get involved militarily?

MAGIEROWSKI: Well, no, because technically, Ukraine is not a NATO member state so we can't defend them militarily. But, of course, we can deliver weapons to them. We can support them financially. This is very important.

Yesterday, I posted a tweet appealing to the British (ph) diasporas here in America to do their utmost in order to support the Ukrainian cause in these difficult circumstances. They can collect food, blankets, medicines. This is something the Ukrainians really need. We can't even imagine what is the scale of this -- of this confrontation.

KEILAR: What do you worry is Russia's next move after Ukraine?

MAGIEROWSKI: I'm pretty sure that this is not the last item on Mr. Putin's venue, unfortunately. Poland will be targeted. The Baltics will be targeted. And our late president-elect Kaczynski said exactly this after the Russian invasion on Georgia in 2008. He said exactly the very same words -- we are next on the list.

So, of course, he fears NATO. He fears NATO response. But I don't know how determined he is to move on and to further his actions against NATO countries as well.

KEILAR: He's pushing Ukrainians out of Ukraine, largely into Poland. Can you talk to us a little bit about the challenges of the refugee situation and what --

MAGIEROWSKI: Well, the challenges are enormous but as you said, it's almost 400 -- it's exactly 377,000 refugees who have crossed the border over the last few days.

But on the other hand -- and this is not common knowledge here in America -- there are now about a million and 200,000 Ukrainians who live and work in Poland. They have integrated into the Polish society impeccably. They speak the language. They learn the language in a matter of months.

So we have been absorbing those waves of migrants, not only refugees, for the last couple of years.

[07:35:00]

And I have never heard about any racial incident, for example, in Poland. Someone assaulting a Ukrainian on the streets of one of the Polish cities. So this is a migration model to follow, actually, for many other European countries.

So, this is a logistical and technical challenge but we are ready, socially and culturally, and politically to admit even more Ukrainian neighbors on Polish soil.

KEILAR: Ambassador, thank you so much for being with us this morning.

MAGIEROWSKI: My pleasure. Thank you very much.

KEILAR: We really appreciate it.

So, right now, there is a 40-mile-long convoy of Russian military vehicles, tanks, armored trucks heading straight for Ukraine's capital city. Can Ukraine's troops hold them off? We'll talk about that next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BERMAN: All right, the breaking news -- moments ago, we heard from CNN's Jim Sciutto that the current U.S. intelligence assessment is that Vladimir Putin and the Russian military could increase the intensity of their attacks on Ukraine with little concern for Ukrainian civilian casualties. [07:40:12]

Of particular note right now is this convoy. Here's a satellite image of it right now. It's anywhere from 17 to 40 miles long. It's moving ever closer to the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv.

Back with us, CNN military analyst and former Army commanding general for Europe and the Seventh Army, Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling.

Mark, when you see this convoy -- and you can show us where it is on the map -- what are your concerns with it?

LT. GEN. MARK HERTLING (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST, RETIRED ARMY COMMANDING GENERAL, EUROPE AND SEVENTH ARMY: Well, first of all, John, it is a long convoy. It is a resupply convoy. They have military kinetic equipment and when I'm talking about that, tanks, VMPs, air defense systems, and other kind of killing machines within that resupply convoy to protect it.

So, what is concerning about it is we're focused on that. And everyone is telling me why don't we just send in airplanes? Why don't we send in helicopters to destroy that? Yes -- if I'm the Ukrainian commander, I'm saying yes, you got any of those for me? Because I'm not sure I can use the limited number of aircraft to strike a resupply convoy right now, especially one that has air defense systems within the convoy proper.

I also, as the Ukrainian commander, am thinking I've got 25-meter targets that I'm shooting at. I can't afford to go after a 100-meter target just yet because I'm trying to survive the fights going on in the various cities.

They will eventually get to this convoy. Trust me, John, they will. But right now, it is not the priority in any commander's mind. If you had the means to hit it, you certainly would.

BERMAN: So, General, here is one area of concern. All the areas in red now on this map under Russian occupation, essentially. What happens if this area of red here starts to encircle Kyiv all the way around? We keep hearing about the Europeans and NATO nations sending in weapons and arms to help the Ukrainians, but how do you get them into Kyiv if it's surrounded by Russian troops?

HERTLING: Well, there are covert means to get some of that equipment into Europe, John -- or into the -- into Ukraine.

What I would be most concerned with though, truthfully, is not so much the expansion of those red areas that we've been watching for such a long time because that's where Russian troops are.

What I would be most concerned with is the long-range systems. What I'm talking about is the missiles. The artillery that can shoot from 17 miles away. The cruise missiles, which we saw just hit in the middle of Kharkiv that can shoot from hundreds of miles away.

Those are the things we're going to see a lot of next because the ground forces of the Russian army are not moving very well. They are bogged down, in my humble opinion.

So, we're going to have to watch what Mr. Putin and his army does next. Is he going to use a lot of long-range systems -- artillery, missiles, cruise missiles -- to strike targets where there's a lot of civilian population? We've already seen some of that and we've also seen how it -- you know, you could put it in the category of a war crime. I certainly would when you're talking about using cluster munitions or hitting a government building with just civilian targets, as we just saw right now in Kharkiv.

BERMAN: Yes. And again, the reporting from Jim Sciutto is sources tell him that the United States expects to see more of that from the Russians in the coming hours and days.

Retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling, always an education. Thank you so much.

HERTLING: Thanks, John.

KEILAR: We just reported that U.S. intelligence agencies are combing through information trying to understand Vladimir Putin's mental state.

So joining me now to discuss, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia, Angela Stent. She is also the author of "Putin's World: Russia Against the West and with the Rest." And also joining us is CNN political analyst David Gregory as well.

OK, so let's talk about this because right now, this is a top priority of the intel community to try to understand his state of mind. That's because their general read right now is that he's acting a bit out of character. I wonder what your assessment of the situation is.

ANGELA STENT, SENIOR FELLOW, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION, FORMER NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE OFFICER FOR RUSSIA AND EURASIA, AUTHOR, "PUTIN'S WORLD: RUSSIA AGAINST THE WEST AND WITH THE REST": So I think most people watching him, listening to the speech that he gave last week -- the way he's lashing out at people -- think that he's unhinged. The question is, is this real or is this an act that he's putting on? That he wants us to think that he's unhinged.

But he does not seem to be acting like a rational person. This is -- what he's doing to Ukraine is out of character from the way, for instance, they persecuted their war with Georgia or even when they annexed Crimea in 2014.

KEILAR: So then, what is the option -- what are the options here of how the Biden administration responds?

DAVID GREGORY, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: I think the only option is the course they're pursuing to be able to unite the Europeans -- you know, the Atlantic West and our allies to keep the pressure on diplomatically and economically to put Putin in much more of a corner. I don't think Putin responds to public opinion in the way that an American leader might. [07:45:03]

But he's got to face down the real fears of an economic collapse in the country that's a further collapse even though there are natural gas prices that are high there are still shocks to the system. And certainly, in his political class of the oligarchs who will begin to complain about the pressure that's being laid bare.

What interesting if you go back -- and everyone should read Angela's book as I did this summer -- "Putin's World" -- to get us into his mindset. But there are differences in how he's approaching this. Because heretofore during the Bush administration, during the Obama administration, I think he had a sense that he could make these moves and the West really wouldn't do much because they wouldn't lay it on the line to fight for these parts of Ukraine or the former Soviet Republic.

KEILAR: So now, it's sort of a rude awakening for Vladimir Putin for how the West is responding. They seem to be fed up. But also, there has been some embarrassment of the Russian military, at least, until now. And I wonder these might be new circumstances for him to deal with.

How do you think that he'll respond?

STENT: Well, I mean, if he knows how -- you know, that the military hasn't performed as well as it should have, then I think that would be a problem for him. We have to be wary about this business of putting him in a corner.

I was rereading last night his autobiographical interview 22 years ago when he became president. He recounts growing up in his apartment in Leningrad and there were lots of rats there. And one day he cornered a big rat thinking he could get rid of it and the rat attacked him. And in that interview, he says the lesson I learned is you should never let yourself get cornered. You have to attack first. And this is something that he's talked about since then.

So I think, obviously, we have to have all these sanctions and we're doing the right thing there. But we just don't know -- and it comes back to the question of his mental state -- how he's going to react to that and whether he's going to unleash more terrible things in Ukraine.

GREGORY: And every evidence is that he will do that.

STENT: Yes.

GREGORY: I mean, Jim Sciutto was talking about the war on Chechnya and how he has, in the name of fighting terrorism when that was more fashionable in the world, used that as a pretext to go after anybody.

KEILAR: It does -- it does seem a desperate Putin is a more dangerous Putin.

STENT: Yes. KEILAR: And that's certainly a big enough question mark that it can change the calculus here.

STENT: Right, and this is a fine line for the Biden administration. You want to slap all those sanctions on him and the people around him but you don't want to push him. Again, they are on a higher state of nuclear alert now and we do have to be very conscious of that.

KEILAR: What's the effect on the State of the Union -- the address?

GREGORY: Well, I think -- look, any president has a rare opportunity to speak to a big audience during a State of the Union. And this is a real opportunity for the president to try to explain where Ukraine is, what's going on there, why it matters. Why Russia, today in 2022, is a real threat to our interests.

He has an opportunity because it's who he is to say look, our Western allies matter. We had a president who basically told us that our friends don't matter and that it was all about China, but that Russia presents a real threat. That if you go to the gas pump and you pay more and if your food costs more, it's because of what's he's doing, as David Frum was saying earlier.

So there's an opportunity and really an imperative to take the American people to school. To explain why we're taking this stand. To explain why the preservation and democracy in Europe matters.

And to be very clear, it doesn't mean that we are going to send American fighting men and women to fight and die. We have allies who will stand shoulder-to-shoulder with -- who will lead this fight, but that we have to stand up for these principles and keep the pressure on. And that there should be a constituency for this. This is not a far-off land where we're not interconnected.

KEILAR: If ever there were an opportunity it may be this evening. He may be giving this address --

GREGORY: Yes.

KEILAR: -- as there is a Russian onslaught -- renewed aggression underway.

Thank you so much, Angela and David. Really appreciate your insights here.

GREGORY: Thank you.

STENT: Thank you.

KEILAR: Join Anderson Cooper and Jake Tapper with Wolf Blitzer, Don Lemon, Dana Bash, Abby Phillip, and Pamela Brown for President Joe Biden's first State of the Union address. The live coverage of this very important event is going to start tonight at 8:00 on CNN.

BERMAN: So we just established communication with a reporter on the ground in Kharkiv where we've seen this huge, devastating Russian air attack on a government building. Our Jim Sciutto calls this an escalation of attacks in civilian areas.

We're live on the ground in Kharkiv right after this break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[07:54:10]

KEILAR: Russia is facing a financial meltdown this morning set off by escalating Western sanctions over Ukraine. The ruble tumbling to under a penny and still falling. The Moscow Stock Exchange closed all day yesterday and again today.

International diplomatic editor Nic Robertson is live in Moscow where the ramifications of these actions are very real, Nic.

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: Yes. The government here is still trying to figure its way out of these economic restrictions that have essentially cut it off from that rainy day fund of $630 billion it had that was the way that President Putin had always planned to handle sanctions that he knew were coming to the country.

Just anecdotally, I went out and tried to use my AMEX a few minutes ago. That didn't work, but I used a European banking card and that did work.

[07:55:00]

And I think that's what's facing most Russians today. The big sanctions are not hitting them. It's more of a government problem. They are worried about what's happening. They recognize the ruble is tumbling in value.

There's been a Russian language opposition to the war petition launched and it's already gathered more than a million signatures. There have been letters from the doctors union, teachers union, architects, musicians, journalists, and other professions criticizing President Putin's war.

But it is not having an impact. The sanctions are not having an impact on Putin at the moment.

Listen to what his representative -- his foreign minister said, speaking to the U.N. in Geneva today by videoconference. Some diplomats there walked out. It was anger, it was vindictive. It was the U.S., Europe backing Ukraine. And this is going in one direction. The diplomatic doubling down of the diatribes is going to be reflected in the military attacks on the ground. The sanctions are not having an impact on the war yet.

KEILAR: All right, Nic. Nic Robertson live for us in Moscow -- thank you.

BERMAN: So, here in the U.S., states and cities have announced boycotts of Russian goods, including vodka.

Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan told reporters, quote, "We are not doing anything to support Russia in any way or their economy." Governor Hogan also terminated the state's sister relationship with the Leningrad region as a symbolic gesture.

And Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan joins me here now. So, what does that mean -- cutting off any economic relationship between Maryland and Russia?

GOV. LARRY HOGAN (R-MD): Well, so we just -- they are kind of symbolic gestures we're taking but we think it's important to send a message to Russia every way that we can.

So, we had a sister-state relationship for 30-some years that was started by Gov. Schaefer back in the '90s and we just terminated that. We sent a letter to Leningrad yesterday saying because of the -- you know, the incursion into Ukraine that we were no longer going to have that association. I'm sure it doesn't do much to them but it's a symbol that the people of Maryland are united with the people of America and the world, standing up against Russia and standing with the people of Ukraine.

BERMAN: That may not hurt --

HOGAN: Yes.

BERMAN: -- Russia but it helps and is a message to Ukrainians who might be living in Maryland. Europeans who might be living in Maryland. And I know you spent some time with them.

HOGAN: Yesterday morning I went to a Ukrainian Catholic church in the city of Baltimore, which -- and it was just an incredible experience -- to let them know that all the people of our state were standing strong with them and to tell them how proud we were of the Ukrainian people and President Zelensky and the bravery that they're showing. And that we were standing in solidarity with them.

And it was moving. I mean, I was hugging people. There was a lot of tears, and handshakes, and thank yous. And people are concerned about their loved ones who are in Ukraine. And it's -- but I think that it did mean a lot to them that -- to know that the people of America are there and supportive.

BERMAN: As you know, there's not a lot you can do --

HOGAN: Right.

BERMAN: -- personally. But the one thing that every American can do at some level is be prepared to sacrifice some.

HOGAN: Yes.

BERMAN: So, how do you explain that to people in Maryland? How do you persuade them, maybe, that they might need to pay more at the gas pump? That prices may need to go up and that might be the cost of freedom.

HOGAN: You know, it's interesting. We hadn't been talking about the importance of the region. We really hadn't been. The average person wasn't focused on NATO or who was trying to get membership in NATO. The average person was worried about doing what they do every day -- coming home from work and trying to figure out how to pay their bills.

But the coverage of this and the kind of inspirational leadership of Zelensky -- people are glued to their television sets. They're watching CNN all day. And people do want to be involved. They saw -- I think he's moved public opinion, obviously, in the -- in the -- in the E.U., and with NATO, and in America. I think people are now realizing that fighting for freedom and democracy in any way that we can is important, and we haven't been talking about that for decades.

BERMAN: Any way that we can, though? I mean, you're not suggesting that the United States should be more involved militarily.

HOGAN: No, but I think we ought to take every action we possibly can with respect to sanctions, with respect to providing more military assistance and funding. We've got to back them up and -- but we shouldn't be sending American troops. And we couldn't get them in there anyway.

I mean, it's a -- it's a crazy situation. I'm not sure we have the ability to do certain things right now because we waited too long and we're not in a strong position. But I think we can do things that can -- that can crush Russia and Russia's economy, and have them think that this was a big mistake on Putin's part.

BERMAN: Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, it's nice to see you. Nice to see you in person. Sorry it's for this reason, but thank you --

HOGAN: Thank you.

BERMAN: -- for coming in this morning -- appreciate it.

HOGAN: Great.

BERMAN: And CNN's breaking news coverage continues right now.

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

KEILAR: Good morning to our viewers here in the United States and around the world. It is Tuesday, March first. An act of undisguised terror.