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CIA Chief: Putin's Anger Will Lead To "Ugly" Next Few Weeks; Mayhem In Kyiv Train Station As Thousands Rush To Flee Capital; Syrian "White Helmets" Ready To Assist Ukraine Against Russians. Aired 5:30- 6a ET

Aired March 09, 2022 - 05:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[05:32:42]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

WILLIAM BURNS, CIA DIRECTOR: I'd say Putin is angry and frustrated right now. He's likely to double down and try to grind down the Ukrainian military with no regard for civilian casualties. Where that leads I think is for an ugly next few weeks.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: Top U.S. intelligence officials, including the CIA director, testifying that Vladimir Putin underestimated the strength of the Ukrainian resistance but he is unlikely to be deterred.

Joining me now is professor of global politics at University College London, Brian Klaas. His latest book, "Corruptible: Who Gets Power and How it Changes Us," examines why people like Putin end up in power.

Professor, I just want to start with what we just heard from Bill Burns, the CIA director. He thinks that the lack of instant success that Putin had will only make him feel more necessary to increase the aggression. What do you think?

BRIAN KLAAS, COLUMNIST, THE WASHINGTON POST, PROFESSOR OF GLOBAL POLITICS, UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON, HOST, "POWER CORRUPTS" PODCAST, AUTHOR, "CORRUPTIBLE: WHO GETS POWER AND HOW IT CHANGES US" (via Skype): I think that's right, and I think that the miscalculation is a feature of the system Vladimir Putin has constructed around him.

And one of the things I find in my research and having interviewed lots of these former despots is that some of them are more rational, some of them are less rational. But they all create cultures of fear around themselves that cause them to miscalculate because they force advisors to parrot lies back at them and they start to believe their own propaganda, which I think is what's happened with Vladimir Putin.

Now, we have this sort of idea of how we can get Putin to back down. And Sun Tzu in "The Art of War" says you should build the golden bridge for your enemy to retreat over. The problem is that assumes that the enemy is rational. And I think Vladimir Putin has shown that he is not rational in this current context and, therefore, I have relatively low levels of optimism that even if there is some sort of face-saving mechanism through diplomacy that Putin will simply back down and withdraw his troops.

BERMAN: Well, what's the opposite of that? What if somehow NATO or the U.S. gets these MiGs into Ukraine to defend themselves? Based on what you -- what you know about Vladimir Putin, how would he respond to that?

KLAAS: Well, this is the huge question where we're gambling with nuclear war. And I think this is the dilemma that exists when you have great power of conflict with nuclear weapons because, at some point, Vladimir Putin might decide that an act of war has been committed.

Now, international law has rules and regulations about what actually counts as an act of war and I'm certain that the U.S. and NATO will be very, very careful not to break those rules. But at the same time, there's going to be an instance in which Vladimir Putin could say all right, you've crossed the rubicon, so to speak, and I'm going to use a tactical nuclear weapon or an actual nuclear weapon against a city -- some sort of aspect that could escalate this conflict severely.

[05:35:17]

And this is why I think it's so crucial to understand we're not dealing with a rational actor. Because if you try to make a solution that you might take that doesn't necessarily mean that Vladimir Putin would think -- that he would take it. And he's been sort of thinking about his legacy, the Russian imperium. The pandemic seems to have warped his thinking a bit, according to lots of Russian analysts who watch him closely.

And so, I think we need to be very careful when we play with escalation like this to ensure that all of the i's and t's are crossed so that Putin can't lie and claim that an act of war has been committed against him by NATO countries or the United States.

BERMAN: So, Professor, what did Putin think would happen when he invaded Ukraine, and why did he think that?

KLAAS: Well, this is -- this goes back to this missed calculation point, right? So, you surround yourself with yes men and liars who create propaganda for your regime in order to delude your population into believing the fake reality you've constructed on state media is actually real. And over time, you start to believe that. If you inhabit a fake reality constantly it's going to seem real.

And so, I think Putin was probably told that yes, this will be a cakewalk. We'll drive our tanks into Kyiv. We're going to have the most well-prepared army on the planet. There's not going to be any problems with fuel or logistics. And the Ukrainians will fold and Volodymyr Zelenskyy will flee.

And I think that obviously hasn't happened, which means that Putin got this badly wrong. And I think he also drastically underestimate the western response. I do not think he would have gone into Ukraine if he understood how severe the economic consequences are because for the first time in his -- in his time in office, I would argue, he's at real risk of being toppled if the oligarchs sour on him and want to force him out.

So, this is a clear blunder but unfortunately, it's a very bloody and brutal one. And Ukrainians and ordinary Russian citizens are going to be the ones who pay the price.

BERMAN: One of the more interesting developments over the last 24 hours -- and I don't want to make light of this at all -- is McDonald's closing its shops in all of Russia right now. And we showed video before of the amazing opening of McDonald's like in 1990 there -- what a big deal it was.

And the reason I bring this up to you is because Putin can't hide this anymore from the Russian people. When McDonald's is closing they know that there's an impact on them.

KLAAS: That's exactly right and it's important for two reasons. One is that private companies are basically self-withdrawing from Russia. It's become such a toxic country to deal with that they don't want to deal with the reputational risk. So that's going to compound the western sanctions.

But to your point, it's also that the propaganda and lies work so long as you're not faced with the consequences of your actions in your daily life. And Russians who are going to see -- who are seeing the ruble collapse, who are potentially going to have to make bank runs, who are going to see lots of economic pain, and ultimately, not being able to go to McDonald's is a highly visible aspect of how Putin's miscalculation is going to cost them in their daily lives.

And that's only going to put further pressure on his regime to withdraw eventually, but also, potentially, to lose power because it's an unsustainable economic situation and the pain I think is going to be drastic in the coming months for Russian ordinary citizens.

BERMAN: I don't want to lose sight though of the real victims here and where the pain is being felt most acutely, and that's for the people inside Ukraine right now.

So, Professor, what does this mean if you're living in Kharkiv? What does this mean if you're in Mariupol surrounded by Russian troops right now?

KLAAS: Well, what it means is that a lot of people in power who want to help you are gambling that whatever they -- whatever help they provide will not make the situation significantly worse. And I think this is the harsh reality is that Ukrainians have become a sort of pawn in a global great power rivalry between two nuclear-capable nations.

And ultimately, that's the -- that's the ugly reality of it is that a lot of people in the west want to help. They want to do more. They want to do nothing more than send the fighter jets and potentially escalate the conflict in a way that deters Vladimir Putin.

But at the end of the day, there's a calculation -- a hardnosed calculation being made in western capitals. Do we roll the dice if the dice come out the wrong way and that means a nuclear weapon gets unleashed by Vladimir Putin? And that's the stakes that we're dealing with and it's an extremely dangerous situation.

BERMAN: All right, Brian Klaas. Always great to have you on. Thanks so much for joining us this morning.

KLAAS: Thank you.

BERMAN: All right. The mass exodus from Ukraine's capital -- a scene so chaotic at the train station they gave up on selling tickets. Plus, we have new video of Ukrainian women being taught how to use AK-47s and machine guns as well, as the Russians now attack more cities.

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[05:44:01]

BERMAN: As Russian forces advance on Kyiv, residents rushing to flee the capital. One journalist who is based there writes, quote, "There are no tickets out of Kyiv left, but it makes no difference. The tickets have become useless pieces of paper, as all trains are now evacuation trains, first-come, first-served."

That journalist, Asami Terajima, joins me now. She's a reporter for The Kyiv Independent. Asami, so nice to see you again.

You spent time at that train station and then, frankly, on one of those trains getting out of Kyiv. Just tell me what you saw.

ASAMI TERAJIMA, POLITICAL REPORTER, THE KYIV INDEPENDENT (via Skype): So, back at the train station, there's thousands of people waiting -- children, women, and also men sitting on the floor and laying down on the floor as well because they know that they could -- it's -- there's a high likelihood that they could spend the night there because they never know when the train is going to come.

Trains, even if they do come, they are often severely delayed, so they can never expect when they come. And as soon as a train arrives, everyone is trying to get to the platform as soon as possible. Because as soon as the door opens, everyone tries to go in but there's not enough space for everyone.

[05:45:05]

BERMAN: Tell me about the train journey itself.

TERAJIMA: So, there's lots of people. So, obviously, even if -- even if you were able to buy the tickets it doesn't make -- it isn't better because no one is checking it and you will likely not be able to get to the seat because there's just so many people sitting in the hallway as well. So, I was sitting in a corner of the hallway next to the door. It was

really cold but I felt very fortunate that I was able to have a place to sit and even have a place to write on the train. Because I saw a lot of people on the platform who weren't allowed to go in because the conductor said there's no more space.

BERMAN: And I think everyone on the train who makes it on board feels like the lucky one.

How long of a ride is it? What services are available to the people during it? And when they arrive, what happens?

TERAJIMA: So, the train ride itself was about eight hours because it was like a night train. And they were -- they were offering tea and water.

They -- some people were asking for food because many of them are hungry after waiting for, like, many hours at the train station and at the train station there is very limited amount of food available. But the train conductor said there is no food. They don't sell food on the train.

And once we -- once we arrived in Lviv, which is about 500 kilometers west of Kyiv, everyone rushed out. Everyone was like -- everyone was in a hurry to get somewhere. It was really weird because we know that the train -- the train -- this is the final stop and the train is going to be there for, like, at least 30 minutes. But everyone was trying to get out as soon as possible.

And once everybody steps into the station there is also people already waiting there. And yes -- so, there's lots of people spending the night there as well.

BERMAN: Yes. Look, the next part of the journey -- getting from Lviv over the border -- just as hard if not harder than the journey from Kyiv to Lviv itself.

It does seem that over the last several days there has been an intensified exodus. There's been a new urgency for people to get out of Kyiv. Why?

TERAJIMA: Because Kyiv --so when we are living in Kyiv we often hear these explosions and we're often worried about our loved ones. We have -- several of us have children who -- you know, we want to make sure that he or she is safe. And we don't want them -- you know, they're so young. They're like 10 or nine.

We don't want them to hear and sleep to the sounds of explosion and the sound of air raid sirens. Because when we live in Kyiv it becomes more normal every single day to hear this. And every day, the explosions do get louder sometimes. Some days you don't hear anything but often, you do.

And we also hear that missiles are being struck on the capital. So -- and we also have -- we also know that heavy fighting is going on the outskirts of Kyiv. And Kyiv -- we all know that Kyiv is a target of Russia so we are all taking -- we kind -- we know what could happen.

Of course, Ukrainians will never allow Russians to take over Kyiv because we will never surrender. And we will, of course, get through this but it's going to be difficult upcoming weeks. So we're expect -- we are -- we are making sure that whoever -- there are people who stay -- who chose to stay in Kyiv, but there's also people who have also left Kyiv because they want to protect their loved ones and to protect their child or elderly.

BERMAN: Right.

Asami Terajima, we're glad you made it out. We're also glad you're still in Lviv because we depend on your reporting for The Kyiv Independent. Thank you so much for what you do.

TERAJIMA: Thank you so much as well.

BERMAN: So, a potential new ally for Ukraine. They're Syrians and they know firsthand what it's like to be targeted by Vladimir Putin.

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[05:53:32]

BERMAN: All right. New this morning, we have pictures of the civilians' self-defense course on the outskirts of Lviv. You can see these images of civilians, including women, learning how to use AK- 47s. Also, we're told, machine guns.

These classes have been taking place for weeks with basic combat training in everything from handling guns, tossing grenades, and making Molotov cocktails.

BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN ANCHOR: Concern is mounting for millions of civilians who are caught in the crossfire of Putin's deadly war. People all over the world have offered support, including one group that is all too familiar with Russia's vicious attacks -- the Syrian White Helmets, which you may have heard of.

So joining us now to talk more about this is CNN political analyst and Washington Post columnist Josh Rogin.

Fascinating piece that you have written. You spoke to the White Helmets -- the head of the White Helmets and they have tons of advice and they are counseling the Ukrainians. What did you learn?

JOSH ROGIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST, COLUMNIST, THE WASHINGTON POST: Right, Brianna. Well, we've heard that the Russians may be recruiting Assad's army to fight inside Ukraine. But the truth is that most Syrians are on the Ukrainian side of this because Syrians have been getting bombed by Russian aircraft for seven years and they've learned a few things about it.

Amongst the helpful tips they have for Ukrainians are whatever you do, set up your civilian response teams in small teams that can move fast. Don't use the internet. Don't use phones. Use walkie-talkies. They warn that the Russians have very cruel tactics. They'll have

these double-tap strikes where they'll kill the first responders within seven to nine minutes. So after the first strike comes you want to get in there and get out within seven to nine minutes.

[05:55:08]

And basically, their advice is that don't rely on the United Nations or the international community to help you. You're going to have to form your own civil defense teams. The Ukrainians are going to need their own White Helmets. And the Syrian White Helmets are here to say we'll help you because they've got more experience getting killed by Russians than anyone else.

KEILAR: They're giving them advice on how do you deal with exploded rockets. How do you evacuate buildings that are under attack? What kind of supply list you need ahead of time. How to organize your groups. And that the GoPro is the essential tool, right?

ROGIN: That's right because the Russians are not fighting military to military. The Russian military is waging a war on the Ukrainian people. So everyone -- all civilians are now combatants. They're all becoming frontline warriors like it or not, so they have to band together.

And one of the things that the Russians are doing is they're committing war crimes, reportedly everywhere. So the only way to document that is by being on the scene. So, what the Syrians are telling the Ukrainians that as you're saving lives, put a GoPro on every helmet. Document those war crimes.

Get some of that information out to stop the war crimes in progress and save a bunch of it for the International Criminal Court because every picture can be a conviction years down the line.

KEILAR: You write, "There are some things the Syrians have learned not to do. Do not give GPS locations of medical facilities to the United Nations, which may claim it needs the information to keep them safe. The Russians will use that information to target them.

Never let Moscow have any say or control over how humanitarian aid is distributed, even when it's a U.N. program. The Kremlin will use that power to starve out civilian populations, as it is doing in Syria now."

ROGIN: Right. We're already seeing in Ukraine how Moscow is manipulating humanitarian corridors, using starvation as a weapon of war. Again, all crimes against humanity.

The Syrians have been dealing with this for seven years and what they said is whatever you do, do not trust the U.N. because the Russians will take whatever information you give to the U.N. and then use it to kill more people. That's a sad but true fact of the way that our world is working right now. And if you just think about it, it means that the Ukrainians are on their own and they'll have to band together. But what the Syrians are saying is that if the -- if you -- if they are willing to stand up for their -- what they believe in and fight for their country that the will of a people defending their nation is more powerful than even the mightiest armies.

KEILAR: Well, they have a lot of advice to give.

I want to ask you while I have you here about these MiGs. Poland surprised the U.S., saying hey, we'll give these MiGs to Ukraine but we want to do it through you -- through the Ramstein Air Base, which is a NATO-U.S. base in Germany. And it seems like as Kamala Harris is heading to Poland today they are really surprised by what's going on.

How do you see this?

ROGIN: Right. For the last five days, I've been talking to Biden administration officials who are downright upset with the Poles for springing this on them. The Biden administration does not want to do this, OK? They've been very clear privately, although not publicly, that they don't think it's a good idea. They say that oh, well, the Ukrainians aren't flying their planes anyway, and how would we get them in there?

And they're worried it could be escalatory. That's what an official told me last night. They're afraid of provoking Putin, which to me sounds crazy but that's how they think about it.

When you see American officials on T.V. saying oh, well, this sounds like that we're trying to figure it out and maybe we'll figure it out tomorrow -- maybe we'll figure it out next week -- what they're actually doing behind the scenes is trying to not figure it out.

They're trying to figure out how to handle the politics of it because Zelenskyy wants it and the Poles want it. Congress on both -- in both parties wanting this to happen. But the Biden administration, I'm here to tell you from my reporting, is really not interested in this. They just can't say that out loud because there's so much political pressure.

And in some of these cases, like with the oil sanctions, they flip. And when the political pressure becomes too high then they're like oh, this was a good idea the whole time. So maybe that could happen but as of today, they're -- I get more frustration and anger at the Poles for putting them in this position than actual desire to get this done.

So, that spells a really unfortunate scenario for the Ukrainians who don't care about U.S.-Polish bilateral spats. They just need the planes.

KEILAR: Yes.

ROGIN: And it doesn't look like they're going to get them anytime soon, unfortunately.

KEILAR: I will say -- look, the U.S. is concerned that this could make things worse. That is part of the discussion. ROGIN: I mean, it's a war.

KEILAR: Yes. If, you know --

ROGIN: It's already worse.

KEILAR: Is this going to make this an even larger conflict? That's what we're hearing from them that they're concerned about. Whether that is -- you know, warrants attention, we'll see.

ROGIN: Sure.

KEILAR: Josh, thank you so much -- appreciate it.

ROGIN: Any time.

KEILAR: NEW DAY continues right now.

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

KEILAR: Good morning to our viewers here in the U.S. and around the world. It is Wednesday, March ninth, and I am Brianna Keilar with John Berman.

Just breaking moments ago, an agreement between Ukraine and Russia on a ceasefire to get civilians out of six locations, including Mariupol, which is right now, surrounded by Russian troops without power, without heat, without food. The deputy mayor of Mariupol says he's witnessed the digging of a mass grave in his city.

We are monitoring this ceasefire very closely to see if it truly is going into effect -- if it's being abided by. The Russians have attacked humanitarian corridors before, after all.

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