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Belarussian Forces May Join Russians in Ukraine Fight; Ukrainian Forces Turn Tables on Russia with Counter Offensives; Biden to Attend Emergency NATO Summit; Putin Spokesman Refuses to Rule out Use of Nuclear Weapons. Aired 6-6:30a ET

Aired March 23, 2022 - 06:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

[05:59:15]

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning to viewers in the United States and all around the world. It is Wednesday, March 23. I'm John Berman in Lviv in Western Ukraine. Brianna Keilar in Washington.

The breaking news this morning: Ukrainian forces trying to turn the tables on Vladimir Putin, launching counter-offensive efforts north and West of Kyiv to take back towns that were seized by Russian forces. They appear to be making some headway, regaining control of Makariv, a city 30 miles West of Kyiv.

Bigger picture, this could help prevent Russian forces from encircling the capital, and it could threaten the Russian ability to resupply.

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BERMAN: You can see the ferocity of the fighting here. This was a skirmish between Ukrainian forces and the Russian military, caught on video near a train station in the village of Velyka Dymerka, roughly 18 miles from the capital.

BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN ANCHOR: It is a grim scene in the port city of Mariupol. New satellite images here from Maxar Technologies revealing fires and unimaginable destruction.

A U.S. defense official says Russians are firing on the city from ships in the Sea of Azov. This is video showing cruise missiles being launched off the coast of Crimea.

Help may be on the way for the Kremlin, as well. The U.S. and NATO believe Belarus could soon join forces with Russia and is already taking steps to do so.

All of this serving as the backdrop for President Biden's trip to Brussels. He is leaving Washington here in a few hours. He's going to meet with NATO allies to bolster the Western alliance. He's also expected to announce new sanctions on Russian lawmakers as soon as Thursday.

BERMAN: I want to begin the reporting this hour in Lviv with CNN's Phil Black, who joins me now. And Phil, yes, there's a lot of hope for the counter-offensive efforts in and around Kyiv, but it's in the face of this relentless Russian pressure that we're still seeing in Mariupol.

PHIL BLACK, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Indeed. That's right, John. We've heard reports of this for a few days now, confirmation from U.S. defense officials that Russian naval vessels in the Sea of Azov have turned their weapons on Mariupol, as well. A group of about seven ships. Some of them have joined the attack.

So we now know that city is getting hit from the sea, the land and the air.

It's very difficult to get new information out of there. The siege has been going on for weeks. But the latest satellite images confirm what we understand is true, and that is that the destruction and the -- and those buildings are still being destroyed at a great rate.

Those images cannot show what people are experiencing: the suffering, the hunger, the cold, the fear.

More broadly, there are pockets of not just resistance now but, yes, counterattack. We've been talking about areas around Kyiv, but also Izum (ph) in the East, also Kherson and Mykolaiv in the south.

Also evidence, though, of what Ukraine is up against. Even in the face of very spirited resistance, which we saw in some of that intense firefight video, which shows this small band of Ukrainian defenders under fire, returning fire, one of them standing out in the open, repeatedly firing and reloading a rocket-propelled grenade.

But as I say, then there is evidence of -- of the Russian war machine. And that vessel off the coast of Crimea firing a volley of cruise missiles that could be targeted at anything across a very wide area such as the range of those weapons.

So here we are a month into this. And yes, the Ukrainians are counterattacking. And Russia is still stalled without any significant momentum. And not having achieved any real military goals. This is not a scenario that people were talking about when all of this started, John.

BERMAN: No. One day short of a month into it at this point. This is not what the Russians planned. Still, so much suffering for the Ukrainians.

Any sense, if the Belarusians did enter this fight, did send troops in, where would that make a difference and how?

BLACK: So there is a lot of speculation about this. And some believe that it is quite likely they could enter the fight. Perhaps in the most meaningful way would be in the northwest of Ukraine. So at the very Western side of Belarus, almost due north of where we are now.

They could, in theory, cross that border and add to the pressure that Ukraine is experiencing.

That said, Belarussian forces are not held in the highest regard. And it's unclear what sort of real contribution they could make to the battlefield.

And there is also the possibility of perhaps this is where the concern is greatest, that it would actually destabilize Belarus. The people in the country would protest against it and so forth.

So there's potential chaos in that, but it is certainly a possibility. And some Ukrainian officials believe it's very likely.

BERMAN: Certainly not without risk for the Belarussians. Phil Black, great to have you. Thank you so much for that.

So something of a new setback facing the Russian military in Ukraine. And if you're a student of history, you know the intense irony here, given what has happened to armies who have tried to invade Russia in the past.

A U.S. officials says some of the Russian troops don't have adequate cold weather gear, and they're now getting frost bite, forcing some of their troops to the sidelines.

CNN's Jim Bittermann joins us now, live with this. Jim, it's warm out here today, but it still gets below freezing every night.

JIM BITTERMANN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Exactly. And I think one of the things we're hearing from U.S. officials is that they had -- the Russians have had to take soldiers out of the fight because of frostbite because of the conditions.

They're also suffering food and fuel shortages, command and control shortages. And while some of this, John, could be disinformation on the part of the West, it was at least partially confirmed, passively confirmed by the foreign minister of Russia, Sergey Lavrov, in a speech this morning that he made at his old alma mater.

Speaking to international students, he said, "Many would like to see a stalemate to make sure to present the picture that Russia is bogged down. Americans are playing a decisive role aimed at creating drama around the situation."

And then Lavrov went on in a very threatening way to talk about tomorrow's NATO meetings in Brussels.

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SERGEY LAVROV, RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER (through translator): Our Polish colleagues have already said that there will be a NATO summit to send peacekeepers there. I hope they understand what they're talking about. It will be a direct confrontation between Russian and NATO armed forces. (END VIDEO CLIP)

BITTERMANN: So more threats from the foreign minister there, the kind of threats we've heard in the last 24 hours, as we have from the government spokesman -- John.

BERMAN: All right. Jim Bittermann for us. Jim, thank you so much for that report. Appreciate it -- Brianna.

KEILAR: So a Ukrainian counterattack north and West of Kyiv appears to have made some headway. This is video that was produced and posted by the regional police in Kyiv, who toured the city of Makariv, which is about 40 miles West of Kyiv.

Makariv appears to have been deserted by Russian forces, though Ukrainian forces say it is still being hit by Russian artillery. If Ukrainian forces are able to consolidate their control in this area, it would limit Russia's ability to attack Kyiv.

Let's talk a little bit more about this now with CNN global affairs analyst and contributor to "TIME" magazine, Kimberly Dozier.

This is something that really stands out as we talk about Ukrainians really pushing back, bringing the fight to Russians. Tell us a little bit about Makariv and what we're seeing.

KIMBERLY DOZIER, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: Well, you can see it's in contested areas inside the areas that Russia has been controlling. But it shows some proof of what the Ukrainians have been telling us they plan to do: counter offensives to start taking back key strategic areas.

Now, this wasn't supposed to happen. You can see that the Russian troops were trying to encircle Kyiv, something they thought would happen within 24 to 48 hours. At least, that's what U.S. officials were fearing and predicting.

And now, even areas like Irpin are contested as the Ukrainian forces push back. And in Irpin, thanks to the spring, even the river is flooded, which is blocking Russian troop progress. So it's like even nature is fighting against them.

KEILAR: Yes. It's interesting. I was wondering why it was flooded. Because there were some questions out there. But it really just is this change.

DOZIER: Yes.

KEILAR: We've seen it behind our reporters, the change in the weather. And so you have this increasing flow.

Can we talk a little bit about Russian forces? Jim touched on this a bit. They have been experiencing a lot of head winds, and we knew that. Now they're experiencing frostbite.

DOZIER: Yes. We've been hearing from Ukrainian officials in their daily war reports that they're intercepting communications where the Russian troops say they're demoralized. They can't always pick up all their dead and wounded.

And they don't have some of the basic supplies, some of the good medical care that U.S. troops are used to traveling with.

And their logistics lines are still pretty terrible. So they're running out of food, depending on where you are located on the battlefield.

This is the kind of thing that NATO worked with the Ukrainian military to fix. So what we see is the old way of fighting versus the new.

KEILAR: Is this part of the reason why we're seeing Belarus considering at this point in time getting into the fight?

DOZIER: Yes. They're -- as the Pentagon has told us, Russia deployed about 75 percent of its tactical battalions, the combat forces that it uses to prosecute this type of an invasion.

That means if the battle losses are as reported, between 7,000 to 10,000 killed in action, when you add maybe a ratio of three or four wounded to every person killed, you're talking about tens of thousands of Russian troops off the battlefield.

They need reinforcements. Belarus shares a border are Ukraine. It's got a trained military that's already been drilling with the Russian military. So they know how to communicate with each other.

And the Belarussian president owes his presidency to Vladimir Putin. Because when he was elected in a contested election that the U.S. didn't recognize a couple years back, and there were tens of thousands of Belarusians on the streets protesting against it, Putin sent in Russian troops to reinforce his rule and keep him in power. So he owes his very presidency to Moscow.

KEILAR: Yes, they're in this together. I know Berman has a question for you from Lviv -- Berman.

BERMAN: Yes, Kim. I know you follow the United Kingdom Defense Ministry and the statements they make very closely. Over the last few hours, they suggested, yes, while the Ukrainians are trying to mount these counter offensive efforts, particularly around Kyiv, the Russians may be using this opportunity to regroup so that they can relaunch their efforts soon.

[06:10:10]

And in addition to that, in the eastern part of the country, they continue to try to perhaps trap the Ukrainians in the far east in an encircling maneuver there.

How much of a problem would that be, if they're successful?

DOZIER: Well, that would mean that somebody on the Russian battlefield is starting to use some pretty smart tactics. We've seen a lot of confusion and not a lot of coordination among their troops.

But the British forces, the British intelligence is putting this out there so that the Ukrainians get a heads-up and can try to counter that maneuver. It's just part of the back and forth you see on the battlefield that shows you this is more of at least a matched fight than the overmatch we thought we'd see between Russian troops and the Ukrainians.

KEILAR: Kim, thank you so much for taking us through that. We really appreciate it.

Some really chilling words this morning as Vladimir Putin's spokesman refuses to rule out the use of nuclear weapons.

Plus, just a short time from now, President Biden is heading to Brussels for an emergency summit with NATO allies. How he plans to escalate punishments against Russia. We'll have a live report next.

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[06:15:23]

BERMAN: In just a few hours, President Biden leaves the United States on a high-stakes trip to Brussels to attend meetings with NATO and European allies. The president now traveling without White House press secretary Jen Psaki, who tested positive for coronavirus.

President Biden will also stop in Poland.

CNN's Natasha Bertrand live at NATO headquarters in Brussels. A crucial few days of diplomacy here, Natasha.

NATASHA BERTRAND, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Absolutely, John. It's going to be a very closely watched summit. And some deliverables are expected to come out of it, as well.

We're told that President Biden is expected to announce new sanctions on members of Russia's lower Parliament, the Duma. And that will expand the list, of course, of sanctions against Russians that have already been imposed by the U.S. and the West.

We're also told to expect some announcements about NATO's force posture on that eastern flank. And of course, those NATO allies on that eastern flank are feeling very threatened right now by Russia's aggression in Ukraine. And they're looking for reinforcements and more defensive equipment to help them defend themselves, if Russia intentionally or even accidentally strikes NATO territory here.

But we're also told that there are going to be discussions about Russia's place in the international political system, right? So the U.S. and the West have tried to isolate Russia from the international economy.

And now the question is does Russia have any place in international organizations, now that it has illegally invaded Ukraine? And one country that has raised this as a particular concern is Poland. And they have said that they want to see Russia expelled from the G-20. The G-20 group of advanced economies.

So they actually proposed that to the United States, a Polish official while in the U.S., and they said that the United States seemed very receptive to the idea of expelling Poland [SIC] -- or expelling Russia, I should say, from the G-20.

Of course, Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, did address this yesterday to reporters during a press conference and said that it cannot be business as usual with Russia in terms of its place in the international community, but it will be up to the allies as a whole to decide whether Russia should be expelled.

But as of right now, Russia is invited, and Putin does intend to go to a summit, the G-20 summit in Bali later this year, John.

BERMAN: Yes. Well, that -- that would be fascinating to see. It really is staggering to think of how Russia's position in the world has changed over just the last month. And it could change even more in the next few days, depending on what comes out of these meetings, which I know you will be there.

Natasha Bertrand, thank you very much for that.

So Vladimir Putin's top spokesman refusing to rule out the use of nuclear weapons.

Plus, why our next guest says that Putin has fallen into a dictator trap.

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[06:22:15]

BERMAN: Welcome back. John Berman here in Lviv. This is CNN's special live coverage of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

In an exclusive interview with CNN's Christiane Amanpour, Vladimir Putin's chief spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, refused to deny that Russia could resort to using nuclear weapons for what Putin sees as an existential threat.

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DMITRY PESKOV, SPOKESPERSON FOR VLADIMIR PUTIN: Well, we have a concept of domestic security. And, well, it's public. You can read all the reasons for nuclear arms to be used. So if it is an existential threat for our country, then it can be used in accordance with our concept.

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BERMAN: Joining me now, "Washington Post" columnist Brian Klaas, who is also professor of global politics at University College, London. Professor, great to have you on.

It's part of Russian doctrine, and we all thought it to mean that if the homeland, the Russian homeland was invaded, that part of their doctrine is, you know, the use of nuclear weapons.

But now, the perception of it, how has it changed? If we're talking about an existential threat to Vladimir Putin, what does he see as an existential threat now?

BRIAN KLAAS, COLUMNIST, "THE WASHINGTON POST": Well, it's not very surprising that they're not ruling out the use of nuclear weapons. We would expect that to be the case.

And I think it's one of those areas where we have to understand Russia's place in the world and how it' s shifting very, very quickly.

So, you know, before this invasion, Russia's economy was sandwiched between Italy's and Mexico's in terms of its size. So the way it derived its power was through military prowess and through nuclear weapons.

And its military prowess has been questioned, because it's not actually doing that well on basic stuff in Ukraine. And as a result of that, I think the importance of nuclear weapons has become higher in projecting Russian power abroad.

Now, whether they'll use them or not, you know, a rational actor would not use them. We'll have to think whether Vladimir Putin is a rational actor, a fully rational actor.

But I think it's also important to understand that Russia is a diminished power. It's cornered. And nuclear war is most likely when miscalculations happen. That's been true throughout history where we've come close. And so in a moment of war with a potentially irrational actor, a diminished power trying to project its authority on the global stage, we're in a very dangerous situation.

BERMAN: Is there any space between what could be considered an existential threat to Russia and an existential threat to Vladimir Putin?

KLAAS: Well, I think that space is narrowed, because Putin has made Russia more personalist under his time in office. Remember, he's been in power for 22 years. And what dictators do is they -- they ratchet up their control. They make themselves more and more central to state institutions and state decision making.

[06:25:05]

And so the big worry here is that, as Vladimir Putin decides that he's potentially at risk himself and that Russia may not be at risk but his regime is, will he lash out as a sort of last gasp effort, if he does indeed come to that situation? And that's a situation we don't want to find ourselves in.

You know, I think this is a very worrying situation, where the West has to decide whether it stands on the side of democracy long-term and wants to isolate dictators, which I think is the right call. But we also need to tread carefully, so that we don't end up in a situation where a nuclear blast goes off in the coming weeks, months and years ahead.

Because it is more likely than it has been, probably, at this stage than at any time since the Cold War ended. And that is something that should give us all pause.

BERMAN: You say that Vladimir Putin is falling into something you call the dictator trap. What is that exactly?

KLAAS: The dictator trap happens when a dictator constructs a false reality and a culture of fear that ends up hurting them, because they miscalculate based on believing their own lies.

So when a dictator comes to power, what's really effective to do is to crush dissent, jail opponents, make people fear you, and also start to spread state propaganda, which Vladimir Putin has done for the last 22 years. So over time, you can begin to believe that, because the people around you fear standing up to you.

I mean, in a democracy, crossing your boss is potentially a risky move, but you don't end up in jail or potentially killed, whereas in Russia, that's not true.

So when Vladimir Putin comes up with awful ideas that are likely to backfire, like invading Ukraine, I don't think anyone told him. And if they did so, they did so with a huge amount of fear and trepidation.

And I think this is the world we have to understand that Putin inhabits. He inhabits a fantasy world where propaganda is parroted back at him. State media repeats his lies. And therefore, I don't think he's a fully rational operation.

And that's something that also should cause us some concern, because as we go to the negotiating table eventually or try to come up with some sort of diplomatic solution to this war, I don't think this is someone who is acting exactly fully rational, because this -- this fantasy world has become his reality over the last 22 years.

BERMAN: Is Putin someone who has more power or less power than he did one month ago?

KLAAS: Well, in a sense, he's got less power, because his ability to sort of translate his preferences into outcomes on the global stage has been curtailed. I mean, Russia is isolated. It's becoming, or has become a pariah state. And that's likely to continue for some time.

At the same time, you know, he's consolidating power domestically within Russia. The more that he is isolated internationally, the more he's going to crack down domestically.

So you're going to have this very vertical element of power, where he's -- he's at the top of a system that's increasingly small and increasingly isolated. And that's not a good situation for any ruler to be in.

And as he faces, you know, sort of the risk of that system toppling and collapsing underneath him, that's when the real miscalculations can happen.

And it's why I'm particularly worried about the situation. We've done all the right things. The West has behaved, I think appropriately in this situation. But at the same time, it's creating a dynamic in which a very powerful megalomaniac individual who may not be fully rational is fearing for his regime's survival. And that is the moment where miscalculation is most likely.

BERMAN: Professor Brian Klaas, thank you for being with us this morning. I'm signing up for your class as soon as I can.

More on the breaking news this morning. Intense new video of fighting outside Kyiv as the Ukrainians clearly try to retake territory from the Russians.

Plus, President Biden's Supreme Court nominee defending her record against Republican attacks. We're going to fact-check the claims in these high-stakes confirmation hearings.

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