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Immigration Predicting Party Affiliation; Gideon Rachman is Interviewed about Putin; Powerful Storm to Impact Eastern Seaboard; Queen Misses Parliament Opening; New Images from Webb Telescope. Aired 6:30-7a ET

Aired May 10, 2022 - 06:30   ET




JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: It is primary day in Nebraska and West Virginia. And it turns out there's one issue that's a kind of decoder ring into voters' intentions and identification.

Let's turn to the ring master, CNN's senior data reporter Harry Enten.

Harry, what is this one magical issue?

HARRY ENTEN, CNN SENIOR DATA: I'm still getting over that ring master, whatever that line was.

It's immigration. It's immigration. You know, immigration is coming back as an issue, especially in Republican primaries. And, you know, one really good way to understand immigration is feeling towards a wall along the U.S./Mexico border.

And I just want to kind of start off on the macro level and point out that support for a border wall across the U.S./Mexican border is the same now, 45 percent, as it was in 2006. Forty-five percent. The issue has not moved, at least on the macrolevel, despite the fact that, obviously, we're becoming a more diverse nation. I think a lot of Democrats were hoping that we would become more dovish on immigration. But that, in fact, has not happened, at least according to this metric.

BERMAN: But if you peel down one layer, Harry, and look at the party I.D., what does that tell you?

ENTEN: Yes. So, as I said, on the macrolevel, not much changed. But look at party identification. And here's feelings towards the wall along the U.S./Mexican border among Republicans. Back in 2006, only 55 percent of Republicans supported a border wall. Look at where we are now. In 2021, the latest polling, 88 percent. Up over 30 points. Opposition, 42 percent in 2006, now down to just 11 percent. So Republicans have become a lot more hawkish on a border wall and on immigration.

Now, flip it over, right? Flip it over to Democrat. They have gone in the other direction. So, again, here's feelings towards the wall along the U.S./Mexico border. In 2006, there were a lot of Democrats who supported border wall, right? It was 38 percent. Just 61 percent oppose.

Now, jump forward to 2001. Look at that support. It has dropped from 38 percent in 2006 to just 14 percent in 2021. Opposition has gone up more than 20 points. It's now up to 82 percent. You could have been hawkish and won in some Democratic primaries back in 2006. That is not the case anymore. If anything, Joe Biden was on the center of this issue back during the 2020 primaries, and he was, you know, very much to the left of where a lot of Democrats were back in 2006.

BERMAN: These numbers are so glaring, Harry, that I'm afraid you're going to pull a muscle in one of your arms. They're moving around so much.

ENTEN: Oh (ph).

BERMAN: And one of the most, I think, revealing numbers you have has to do with party switches and how immigration is really a huge correlation to that.

ENTEN: There is. And I should point out that I went trapezing a few weeks ago and I really did pull some muscle, but I'm feeling a lot better, so I'm able to move my arm now.

So, look, this is support for a wall along the U.S./Mexico border. And this essentially looking at how people voted in 2012 and how they voted in 2020. Among those people who voted for Obama in 2012 and Biden in 2020, just 7 percent support a border wall.


Now, look at those Romney 2012 voters and then voted for Biden in 2020. Look at that, very similar, 18 percent. But look at those party switchers, those who went from Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2020. Look at that, 81 percent support a border wall along the U.S./Mexico border. And these two numbers, this 18 and this 81 percent, I think, are really, really telling in so far as if you supported a border wall and you voted for Barack Obama back in 2012, it was a pretty good shot that you then, in fact, supported Donald Trump in 2020. While the reverse was true, if you voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 but you did not support a border wall, there was a pretty good shot that you'd go over and vote for Joe Biden in 2020. And, not surprisingly, the Romney/Trump voters overwhelming supported a border wall, 97 percent.

BERMAN: So what does this mean going forward, Harry, particularly as we look at Republican primaries?

ENTEN: Yes. So, you know, we have a pretty big Republican primary in Pennsylvania, right? And these are looking at the non-economic issues and essentially said, OK, it's extremely important that the candidate shares your views on what? You know, you might have thought, OK, it's Covid policies, you know, masks and vaccine mandates. But just 29 percent of voters in Pennsylvania said that that was extremely important. What about social issues, right, abortion, just 38 percent said that

among Republican primary voters.

But look at this, immigration and border security, extremely important, 53 percent said it was extremely important that the candidates shares their views on that issue. Immigration, as it was in 2016, I think will be a driving force in 2022 in these Republican primaries. If you're not hawkish on immigration, you can basically forget about it if you want to win a Republican primary at this point.

BERMAN: All right, Harry Enten, always a pleasure. Thank you so very much.

ENTEN: I look forward to having you in the room next to me next time.

BERMAN: Some day.

New U.S. intelligence said some Russian officers are refusing to follow orders in Ukraine. What does this mean going forward?

BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN ANCHOR: And a deadly end to a nationwide manhunt for a capital murder suspect and the corrections officer who helped him escape. The sheriff joins us live.



KEILAR: With all eyes on Russian President Vladimir Putin's next move, a new book is warning about authoritarian leaders like Putin returning to world stage. It says this, the rise of strongmen leaders across the world has fundamentally changed world politics. We're now in the midst of the most sustained global assault on liberal democratic values since the 1930s.

Joining us now is Gideon Rachman, the chief foreign affairs columnist for "The Financial Times." He is the author of "The Age of the Strongman: How the Cult of the Leader Threatens Democracy Around the World."

Gideon, really fascinating read here where you talk about how the arcetype (ph) and the model for a current generation of strongman leaders is actually Vladimir Putin. Explain that to us.

GIDEON RACHMAN, AUTHOR, "THE AGE OF THE STRONGMAN": Yes, well, Putin came to power almost symbolically on the first day of the 21st century. And for a while he looked like an anomalous leader. But then, I think, a lot of leaders around the world, a new generation, began to look at him as this tough guy leader, authoritarian, anti-liberal, anti-democratic, who, perhaps, they could learn something from. I think Xi Jinping in China is an admirer of his. Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia. And also, frankly, Donald Trump, who you will remember just two days before the invasion of Ukraine described Putin as a genius, as a strategic genius.

And that's why I think the stakes in this war are truly global because it's not just a question of whether Russia gets its way in Ukraine, but also of the whole Putin strongman model. I think if he had won very easily, his global fan club would have grown. I think if he loses, then one hopes that the strongman model that he kind of epitomizes will be discredited a bit.

BERMAN: How do you crack that? I mean how do you topple a strongman like that? President Biden very recently saying that he's not sure that Putin sees a way out of this.

RACHMAN: Well, that's right. I mean, I think, you know, there are -- there are strongman leaders in some democratic countries where, you know, you might have the option of an election. But, obviously, that doesn't apply in Russia. They have elections but are -- essentially they're rigged. So this is a question we're all asking. You can put enormous economic pressure on Russia, and that's happened. You can see signs of dissent within Russia, and that's happening. But actually having a -- say a revolution on the streets if people feel their living standards are falling, well, that would be repressed with extreme violence. You know, I've seen that happen on the streets of Moscow and it's getting even -- even worse now.

And the other option that people might look at is say an internal coup, you know, generals who get unhappy or KGB people or FSB, as they are now, people who get unhappy. But it's a very, very hard thing to recognize. And you have to remember that strongman leaders of the past often died in their beds. Stalin died of natural causes. Mao died of natural causes. It is a very difficult thing to organize to get a Putin figure out of power.

KEILAR: It's interesting because you mentioned that at first some of these guys, because they're guys, they come in and they are presenting themselves as performers, in a way. MBS, for instance, Vladimir Putin, right.


KEILAR: But they're showing you who they are. It's not like you can't sort of see what's going on. And so I wonder, Gideon, as you're looking at maybe some emergent strongmen, who do you have your eyes on?

RACHMAN: Well, there's a bunch of them who are, you know, potentially in trouble. Erdogan in Turkey, who's also -- quite similar to Putin. You know, he was hailed as a liberal reformer in the west when he came in. He's now been there 20 years, locked up many of his opponents. But he's now facing kind of the consequences of misgovernment, rampant inflation.


And he will -- will have an election and maybe he could fall.

But I think that the other thing with these strongman leaders, even those that face elections, it's not clear -- Bolsonaro actually in Brazil is another one who has a very tight election coming up later this year. But it's not clear in the case of Bolsonaro or Erdogan that they would actually cede (ph) power if they lost. And I'm afraid Donald Trump set a very, very bad example to these other strongman leaders because he showed that even if the electorate rejected him, you can claim it's a fraud, whatever, and you can -- you can attempt to reverse that result. And I think that is a real danger in a lot of these countries.

BERMAN: Well, that is particularly chilling, Gideon, because one of the things that struck me going through your book is that you remind people, if you look down the list of strongmen you're talking about, they're almost all elected, at least the first time.

RACHMAN: Yes. I mean there are a couple of exceptions. Xi Jinping in China. Though even he had some kind of constitutional restraints, which, interestingly, this year is a very important one for him. He's road -- he's abolishing terms in China. So -- but for the rest, you're right, people like Orban, Bolsonaro, Erdogan, Trump, they are all elected. And I think that one of the things that they do once in power is over time erode the constraints on their power. So you'll see a crackdown on media freedom. You'll see the courts packed with friendly judges so that they can't be checked in that way. And you'll see them surround themselves with kind of sycophants and people who can't say no to them. And, you know, that has its dangers. I think that's one of the reasons that Putin is trouble in Ukraine because he had so centralized power that there was nobody able, it seems, to say this plan's not going to work.

KEILAR: Yes, I --

RACHMAN: But -- yes.

KEILAR: I was going to say, it might be the key to the success, Gideon, and also the key to the failure that we are looking there.

Gideon, it's a fascinating road map. And we appreciate you sharing it with us. Gideon Rachman, thank you so much.

RACHMAN: My pleasure.

KEILAR: Is the queen's health worse than publicly known? Why she is missing the opening of parliament for the first time in six decades.

BERMAN: And, you have never seen anything like this. No one has. The very first images from NASA's new space telescope. The truth is out there.



KEILAR: Heavy rains, high winds and rough surf, the calling card for a potential storm system stretching from coastal New Jersey to the Carolinas.

So let's get now to meteorologist Chad Myers with more on what he is watching.

Chad, what do you see in there?

CHAD MYERS, AMS METEOROLOGIST: Brianna, no name and none really expect, although it's possible. There's a low spinning off the coast. We have rain coming into New Jersey, high surf. Basically, stay out of the water here for the next couple of days.

This, though, doesn't have the potential that it could, let's say in a month from now, because the water out here is only 74 to 77. For a storm to truly become tropical, you need to get above 80, and we're just not there yet, so that's the good news.

Take you, though, all the way through Saturday, coming on down to the south and coming on shore. It will make rain. It will make high surf, rip currents and also, of course, some cooler air. The cooler air across the northeast where the west is certainly on fire here in more than one way. Temperatures are in the 90s. Heat indexes well above 100 degrees. And back out here into parts of New Mexico and Arizona, one fire, the biggest fire so far out here, a 197,000 acres already, and fire season really just began.

Temperatures across the northeast pretty cool today. Boston only 55.


KEILAR: Yes, unbelievable that that's kicking up so soon.


KEILAR: Chad, thank you so much for that.

MYERS: You're welcome.

BERMAN: So, for the first time in 59 years, Queen Elizabeth is missing the opening of parliament because of what's being called mobility issues. Today, the 96-year-old monarch is delegating the responsibility to Prince Charles.

CNN's Max Foster live in London with the latest on this.

Max, what do you know?

MAX FOSTER, CNN ROYAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, John, it's -- I think it's a poignant reminder, frankly, that the queen won't be around forever and that Prince Charles will be in that role. We've seen her stepping back increasingly over time but this is the first time I can really think of where she has not been able to carry out one of her core constitutional roles.

If you imagine, you know, you've got a strained system here. It's built up over time. But parliament for us is the House of Commons, the lower house, the upper house, the House of Lords and the monarch. And parliament literally can't open without all three coming together on the opening day. And that's what happened today, the queen literally couldn't get to parliament. You can see there being symbolized by a crown, not there in body. So, what she had to do was issue legal orders to give Charles and

William the authority to act on her behalf. So you can see them there with the crown. Her thrown was taken away. He was sitting there. And he read a speech written by the government which outlines the government's agenda for the next parliamentary session. And that's the first time he's read it, although the queen hasn't always been able to make the occasion. It was a very long time ago when she was last able to -- last time she missed it.

But this is a big moment for him to read that speech. And this is, you know, increasingly what we're going to see and a sign really that the monarch does have power in this country.

BERMAN: And, Max, my understanding was, this is something that she really had planned on attending and wanted to up until the last few days.

FOSTER: So we were told last night that she wasn't able to do it. We had been given some warning that they'd give us a last-minute decision. The same actually is applying to the jubilee. We don't -- we won't know until -- if she's going to turn up to any of those occasions until the day itself.

But the fundamental role of any monarch is that constitutional role as head of state. And she's always prioritized those things. She's able to sign bills into law at Winsor Castle.


She's able to receive a appoint new prime ministers. They can go to her. But this is the one role that she has to go to. And it's a sign that, you know, she is weakening. I mean she's well, as we understand it, but she's just got these mobility issues that just keep coming back.

BERMAN: All right, Max Foster, thank you so much. Keep us posted, Max.

KEILAR: A new milestone for space exploration. Recent test images captured by the world's premier space observatory. The James Webb Telescope providing NASA a much, much clearer look beyond our galaxy.

CNN's Kristin Fisher has been following recent developments and joins us.

As Berman said, the truth is out there. So, what is it, Kristin Fisher?

KRISTIN FISHER, CNN SPACE AND DEFENSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, we're going to find out with the Webb Space Telescope because, I mean, just to be very clear here, what we're looking at are test images. These are not the official first scientific images that we are expecting to get from the Webb Space Telescope.

But if we can pop up this -- oh, here you go. Right here. So this coming into focus. That right there, where it's really cloudy, that's the image from the Spitzer Space Telescope, which is an old infrared space telescope from NASA that's now retired.

And then watch it come into focus right there. So there's the Spitzer. And now when it comes into focus, that's the Webb Space Telescope. That is the difference in clarity that scientists are going to be able to see when we get those first images back from the Webb Space Telescope, when you can see the stars just so much more defined. The clouds, nebulous clouds, so much more defined as well.

And so these are the types of images that astronomers have literally been waiting decades for. And so when we can expect to get those first official scientific images, that's what everybody is waiting for now. NASA held a press conference yesterday and they say we can expect those very first images by sometime likely in mid-July.

And, of course, this is all designed to answer some of those really big existential questions like, are we alone in the universe? And where did that first light in the universe come from?

KEILAR: So what is the leap? How does that change things from being able to see things better to answering those questions?

FISHER: Well, it lets them actually see into some of the atmospheres around some of these exoplanets. And so once you can determine what exactly these atmospheres are made of, then you can get a lot more insight into what exactly -- how they formed and what exactly, if there may -- potentially is maybe life, you know, what exactly that might look like.

But, you know, something else that was just astounding yesterday. I mean, this is such a complex machine. It has more than 300 single points of failure. At any point in time something -- you know, it would have been so easy for something really terrible to happen to this telescope. And yet yesterday NASA and the Webb Space Telescope engineers said that it is just responding perfectly. They would not change a single thing. If they could change something to this telescope right now, the controllers on the ground say they wouldn't tweak it. It is performing perfectly. So now we just kind of get to sit back and wait while they put those final finishing touches and tweaks on. They calibrate it, so to speak. And then we should get those -- those first images back mid-July.

BERMAN: Yes, look, once you get under the hood of an exoplanet, like, there's just no end. There is no end to what you might discover, I always say.

FISHER: Well, yes. And, you know, John, I mean, just think about what happened with the Bubble Space Telescope, right? I mean it went up there. And once it got up into orbit, the lens wasn't -- you know, it couldn't see. It was really fuzzy. It was like an eye that didn't have the contact on it. And so astronauts had to go out and fix the Hubble Space Telescope. So there's a lot of PTSD in the scientific community about what happened with Hubble.

So the fact that Webb is performing so well now, everybody is really breathing a sigh of relief because Webb is so far out there that no astronauts can go to a spacewalk to fix it. So they had one shot and so far it's performing great.

KEILAR: Three hundred points of failure.

FISHER: I know.

KEILAR: That's nothing. We've got thousands.

BERMAN: Right.

KEILAR: Kristin Fisher, always bringing the excitement about new things in space. Thank you so much.

FISHER: You bet.

KEILAR: NEW DAY continues right now.

BERMAN: All right, I'm John Berman, with Brianna Keilar.

On this NEW DAY, a major bank warns the ingredients for a global recession are on the table. President Biden set to address the nation this morning on inflation.

Plus, new evidence that some Russian officers are refusing to follow orders in Ukraine.

KEILAR: And the manhunt for an escaped innate and corrections officer comes to a deadly end.

And the divide intensifies over a leaked Supreme Court opinion overturning Roe v. Wade. Did several justices mislead the American public under oath?


Good morning to viewers here in the U.S. and around the world. It is Tuesday, May 10th. I'm Brianna Keilar, with John Berman.