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New Day

GOP Making Inroads Among Voters; Michael Smerconish is Interviewed about the Uvalde Video and "Yellowstone"; 150th British Open Underway. Aired 6:30-7a ET

Aired July 14, 2022 - 06:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[06:32:02]

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UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Of course the big story today is they announced we've got some new emojis on the way. What we really need are emojis that make it easy to express what's on our minds right now, like, oh (EXPLETIVE DELETED), inflation. Or, oh (EXPLETIVE DELETED), Covid. Or this one, oh (EXPLETIVE DELETED), monkeypox. Oh (EXPLETIVE DELETED), racism. Oh (EXPLETIVE DELETED), insurrection. Oh (EXPLETIVE DELETED), I didn't get nominated for an Emmy again. And oh (EXPLETIVE DELETED), my Amazon guy just (EXPLETIVE DELETED) on the sidewalk.

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JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: That last one's confusing to me, but awesome.

BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN ANCHOR: Does - does that happen to you?

BERMAN: I - I don't know.

KEILAR: I don't think so.

BERMAN: But now I'm worried it might.

KEILAR: I know.

BERMAN: So, this morning, is the Democratic Party facing a demographic shakeup ahead of the midterms? A new poll from "The New York Times" and Sienna (ph) shows Democrats getting more support from white college graduates than from non-white voters.

Here now, CNN's senior political analyst Ron Brownstein, and correspondent for CNN en Espanol, Maria Santana.

And, Ron, let me put those numbers back up on the screen here because one of the things that is on here that people really haven't seen before is that among Hispanic voters you see Democrats with barely an edge at all, really within a margin of error.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes. BERMAN: They're basically tied. Democrats and Republicans tied with Hispanic voters. Democrats held a 47-point edge in the 2018 midterms.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes, sounds slightly high but basically there's movement, right?

BERMAN: Yes.

BROWNSTEIN: So, some things we know are real and long lasting. What you see there among white voters, what I've called the class inversion, is something we have been experiencing really for 50 years. I mean from the new deal to the 1960s, non-college white voters, white voters without a college degree, were the cornerstone of the Democratic coalition. Since the '80s they have been the cornerstone of the Republican coalition. Starting in the '90s, Democrats started with around Bill Clinton in '92. Democrats started running better among college educated voters, particularly women, particularly those who live in the suburbs of the big metros. Both of those trends were pushed to extremes under Donald Trump. Republicans ran extremely well among the non-college voters. Democrats ran better than ever among the college voters.

What's happening among Hispanics, clearly something is happening. Trump ran better in '20 than he did in 2016. But whether it is as lasting or as durable I think is still an open question. It's not a shock to me that when inflation is at 9 percent, as we were talking about in your last segment, that a lot of Hispanic voters, like other predominantly working class voters who are living with less economic margin, are going to be down on the party in power. The bigger question, I think, going forward is, does that - do those Republican inroads last if and when the economy improves.

KEILAR: Maria, what's driving this?

MARIA SANTANA, CORRESPONDENT, CNN EN ESPANOL: Definitely you have to go back to, it's the economy, stupid. Latinos rank the economy, jobs and health care among their top three priorities when voting. So, it's no surprise that when inflation is high, like you say when groceries are costing more, when gas is at a record high, that Latinos are going to turn against the party in power.

[06:35:09]

They come out to vote. They want living wages. They are three times more likely than any other group to be uninsured medically. Well, this is a group that was so disproportionately affected by Covid. They're still recovering from that. And, yes, I think what this poll also shows, it's what Latino voters have known for a very long time is that there is no one size fits all strategy for Latinos. You can't just lump us all together because the Cubans in Florida vote very differently than the Mexicans in California, than the Puerto Ricans in New York. There are just grave socioeconomic, educational, even cultural differences between and within Latino groups.

So, when you have to put out a message to Latinos, it's really about the current circumstance that they're in. Immigration's important. It's important to pretty much a lot of Latinos, but it's not the priority when voting. And a lot of, especially men, Hispanic men, think that the Republicans handle the economy better by 17 points. They believe that.

BROWNSTEIN: Right. Right.

BERMAN: You know, if the Republicans are growing a multiracial working-class coalition, do the Democrats have enough college educated whites, particularly college educated white women, to counter that?

BROWNSTEIN: No, not if - not if Republicans really can have a lasting, even showing among Hispanics. That would be extremely dangerous for Democrats.

But it's not - like I said, it's not clear that they are there yet. I mean Trump improved in 2020 again I think largely on the economy. Keeping the economy open was a really important argument for him with Hispanics but it was still roughly 60/40.

This election, it wouldn't shock me if Democrats can't get to 60/40. I mean, you know, in white collar America - and this may be too simple - in white collar America, though, I think, inflation is an inconvenience. It is, you know, it is annoying. It is more of an existential challenge, I think, for people in blue collar America who are - you know, who typically have less economic margins.

So you can see how white collar voters can feel free to vote on their values, on abortion and guns, where I do think, you know, that is boosting that Democratic number that you saw there. But I think for people who are living closer to the economic margin, it's really hard to get past anything beyond inflation when it's this high. And if you're the party in power, you are going to pay for that.

SANTANA: I mean, to his point, when you talk about Republicans and Latino vote, I don't think Republicans right now have any illusions that they're going to win the Latino vote. But when you're talking about 29 percent, 30 percent of the vote, that's a third of the Latino population. That's millions of votes. So their strategy is not, I'm going to win the Latino vote, I think it's, I can syphon enough votes from the Democrats to make it significant. And that is part of the strategy.

KEILAR: First -

BROWNSTEIN: And, of course, Biden's theory from the beginning was, he was going to be the blue-collar president. I mean, Scranton Joe. I mean his theory coming in was that he was going to downplay all of these cultural fights on every front and focus on delivering material benefits to blue collar workers. And that has - you know, he's been really blocked from doing that by Manchin and Sinema and the collapse of Build Back Better. And, instead, people are feeling more squeeze on their living standards because of inflation. His theory has really been exploded in office.

BERMAN: Ron Brownstein, you wrote during the pandemic one of my favorite books - BROWNSTEIN: Ah.

BERMAN: Which was, "Rock Me on the Water." It was about 1974. You had a lot of information in there about The Eagles, who were quite big that year. After 1974, "Hotel California" became their biggest hit ever.

BROWNSTEIN: Oh, (INAUDIBLE), their masterpiece, yes.

BERMAN: There's now this whole thing where some manuscript has allegedly been stolen of the -

BROWNSTEIN: Story (ph).

BERMAN: What's going to be revealed about the deep dark secrets of "Hotel California"?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, you know, here's - it's really interesting to me. First of all, Don Henley is not someone to suffer fools gladly or shy away from litigation. I'm kind of shocked that it has gone on this long because he's -- he can be a pretty confrontational guy when he thinks he's being wronged, as David Geffen will tell you.

What's really interesting is when The Eagles first started, the great Robert Hilburn at "The L.A. Times" wrote in his review of their first album, the question was whether they could write. I mean many of their original songs, their best songs early, were written by other people like Jackson Browne or JD Souther. And by the time you got to "Hotel California," they are writing. I mean they really worked - I mean Linda Ronstadt, who I interviewed for the book, and both Jackson, told me how much that Henley and Glenn Frey put into trying to become better writers.

So, this - what was stolen were notes of the original lyrics for "Hotel California." By the way, the music came from Don Felder, the guitarist, who -

BERMAN: The rift (ph), yes.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes, OK, you have the rift (ph), the great rift (ph). So it would just be great to see this process because these were two guys who worked at it. They didn't start off really as comfortable song writers. And by the time of "Hotel California," which was supposed to be their statement on America at the bicentennial, kind of like Robert Altman's "Nashville" movie, they had - you know, they were putting in the sweat equity despite all the partying that went on being an Eagle, they put in the time and it really would be great to see this.

I mean how much did you enjoy watching The Beatles write their songs in Peter Jackson's documentary. This would be kind of a, you know, a written version of something of the same.

[06:40:03]

BERMAN: Life changing. Of course, it was all a prelude to "Dirty Laundry," you know, the Don Henley single, for which there is no excuse.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes, (INAUDIBLE).

BERMAN: Ron, Maria, thank you very much.

SANTANA: Thank you.

KEILAR: There is no excuse.

BERMAN: There are more than 1,000 confirmed cases of monkeypox in the U.S. Demand for vaccines is growing. Dr. Sanjay Gupta here with what you need to know.

Dozens of protesters marching outside the homes of two Supreme Court justices. The new law police plan to enforce.

KEILAR: And "Yellowstone" shut out at the Emmys. Did middle America get snubbed, too?

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BERMAN: Nearly two months after the horrific mass shooting in Uvalde, the public is seeing what happened inside the Robb Elementary School where the gunman killed 19 fourth graders and two teachers. The 77- minute video shows in detail how dozens of armed officers lingered in the hallway, failed to launch a unified response to confront the active shooter. So, why didn't anyone take action?

Joining us now, CNN political commentator and host of CNN's "SMERCONISH" and the "Michael Smerconish" program on Sirius XM, Michael Smerconish.

[06:45:06]

Michael, great to see you this morning.

You've seen the video. What struck you?

MICHAEL SMERCONISH, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, I wish that the family members had seen it before we all saw it, so I have to acknowledge that up front. I did watch all of it. And as difficult as it is to view that video, keep in mind, we're seeing an edited tape where we're not hearing the children screaming. Can you imagine if we were watching it and listening to the screams? How about the law enforcement who were on the scene and did hear the screaming?

To my untrained eye, what I see is a total lack of plan, no coordination, no direction, and just total dereliction. And maybe the worst part of it, John, comes at about 50 minutes in because, you know, initially what we were told is, they thought that it was no longer an active shooter, that now it was a standoff, now it was a barricaded situation.

Well, at about the 50-minute mark, you hear more gunfire. So for God's sakes, at that point you know he's still shooting kids and they don't go in. Is it group think? Is it cowardice? I don't know. Is it some combination thereof? All I know is it's horrible.

KEILAR: I think - and we know at that point it could have actually been the teacher who survived. He describes, after much time being shot again in the lower back. And so it is incredibly difficult as we listen to it, even with the gunshots.

I wonder, Michael, do you think we should be able to hear it in its totality with the children? And it is hard -- it's hard to ask that, but if you want to know what really happened, that's what really happened. What do you think?

SMERCONISH: I think we probably should. I'm mindful, as an attorney, of some of the privacy considerations because we're now making a judgment on behalf of those deceased fourth graders and whether their parents would be on board or not for that.

I thought that the video was an incredible wake-up call. I can only imagine that the video, with the screams, with the full audio as a part of it would really shake people and people need to be shaken up about this. Not only about the gun issue, but also about the law enforcement response.

And, Brianna, one other thing. You know, initially one of the cops that you see, kind of a heavy-set guy, without full armaments of war, he has what looks like a pistol in his hand, he goes down the hall. He's the guy who comes back and is wiping his head because I think he's been grazed and he wonders if he's bleeding.

As it goes on, all of the weapons of war show up, the helmets, the shields, the long guns. They've got everything and, therefore, no excuse.

BERMAN: Michael, on a completely different subject, I understand you were raising questions about possible Emmy snubbing. What is the snubbing-gate you're worried about?

SMERCONISH: All right, so my shows, in no particular order, are NEW DAY, "Succession" and "Yellowstone." And, come on, "Yellowstone," four seasons in, one Emmy. And with that incredible cast, something's not right here. And it's hard for me not to conclude that there's some kind of a red state western bias going on here. Like, this is your old man show. But this is not your show.

And regardless of what the actual reason that they got shut out for "Yellowstone," it's going to perpetuate this stereotype, and maybe it's accurate, that Hollywood, whether it's the Academy Awards or whether it's the Emmys, just doesn't have tolerance for red state products.

KEILAR: Hollywood likes the western, though. They love the beauty of it. They love the feeling of it. I mean, we see that at the Oscars a lot of the times. But you really think that's what's going on here? Maybe -- what if they're against Kevin Costner?

SMERCONISH: I - I think -

KEILAR: Is that possible?

SMERCONISH: I - I -- who could be against Kevin Costner? I don't know. I mean maybe Sam Neil, because, you know, he did get himself in - and that relates to the prequel. But it's hard if you pars that show. There is a definite political uncorrectness to it, which makes it a standout in that regard.

If it's not that reason, I don't know what it possibly could be. I think it's beautiful to watch, it's funny to watch, it's interesting to watch, the acting is terrific. I have no other rationale that I can offer other than they don't want a red state western.

KEILAR: What do you think?

BERMAN: I think I have a friend who appeared in one episode of "Yellowstone," and that's all - and that's all I really -- he got beat up in the episode and he's very proud of it, but didn't die, so there's the possibility that he could come back in a later episode. That's what I care about right there.

KEILAR: I want to see that. Look, I think that it should be honored. I'm with you, Michael. I don't know about the reasoning behind it, but it does really stand out and it is so popular and it is a stunning show.

[06:50:02]

BERMAN: I would just say, I mean, you're talking about awards. I mean it's not like Hollywood didn't produce it. It's not like Hollywood doesn't care about "Yellowstone." They're the ones who put the money behind it to get it on TV. So, you're talking -- it's the awards, it's the recognition that's the issue here, not the - the overall disdain for it.

SMERCONISH: But it is -- it is the most popular -- I think this is the proper way that I'm supposed to say it -- it's the most popular scripted television program on TV. I mean, based -- I mean either the public is wrong or the people who vote for these shows are wrong.

BERMAN: Right.

KEILAR: (INAUDIBLE).

BERMAN: But I will also say that "Star Wars" never won an Academy Award. So there's a kind of snubbing there, too. Mass appeal doesn't always relate to award recognition. Just saying.

KEILAR: Nonetheless, we'll keep exploring this because it deserves it, Michael.

SMERCONISH: Hey, hey, hey, "The New York Times" laughed at "Rocky" when it came out. So, maybe there's precedent.

KEILAR: Maybe there is.

Michael Smerconish, thank you for being with us. SMERCONISH: Thank you, guys.

KEILAR: Have a great morning.

So, any minute now President Biden will hold a joint press conference with the prime minister of Israel, and we're going to bring that to you live.

BERMAN: Plus, some right wing lawmakers and media outlets casting doubt on the story of a 10-year-old who crossed state lines for an abortion. What they're saying now, that charges have been filed in this case. That's ahead.

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[06:56:02]

BERMAN: The 150th British Open is underway in Scotland, which means we are obligated to say that Tiger Woods is playing and tees off in a few hours.

Andy Scholes with more on this morning's "Bleacher Report."

Hey, Andy.

ANDY SCHOLES, CNN SPORTS CORRESPONDENT: Yes, good morning, John.

You know, the only (ph) course at St. Andrews is considered the home of golf. That's where golf started in the early 1400s. And this year the course is holding the 150th open championship. And Tiger Woods is set to tee off in just about three hours from now. He's won two of his three open championships at St. Andrews in 2000 and in 2005. And Tiger says he feels stronger now than he did going into the Masters and the PGA championship. And he has had this tournament circled on his calendar.

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TIGER WOODS, 15-TIME MAJOR CHAMPION: For the most part of my rehab was just the -- I was hoping that I could walk again. But lo and behold I'm -- I've played championship golf this year. And once I realized that I could possibly play at a high level, you know, my focus was to get back here at St. Andrews to play in this championship.

I just didn't want to miss this open, you know, here at the home of golf. This has meant so much to me.

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SCHOLES: Yes, and here's a look at your early leaderboard. American Cameron Young has that early lead. LIV Golf's Bryson Dechambeau just a few shots off the lead, as is Rory McIlroy. He just moved to three under.

John, and I tell you what, with everything that's been said, it would be quite fascinating come Sunday to see Rory McIlroy paired with one of those LIV golfers.

BERMAN: Yes, it absolutely would. And a lot of people named Cameron playing good golf right now for some reason.

SCHOLES: Yes, a lot of them at the top of that leader board.

BERMAN: All right, Andy Scholes, thank you very much.

SCHOLES: All right.

BERMAN: So, first on CNN, Donald Trump tried to call a potential January 6th witness. CNN has new information about the role that that person played in the White House. This as the committee is raising new concerns about witness tampering. Our new reporting ahead.

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