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John Kirby is Interviewed about China; Mohamed A. El-Erian is Interviewed about Recession; Trooper at Uvalde Shooting Earlier Than Previously Known; California Wildfire Continues; Odds of Winning Mega Millions Jackpot. Aired 8:30-9a ET

Aired July 26, 2022 - 08:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[08:30:00]

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: Well, the Chinese seem to be suggesting that if House Speaker Pelosi visits Taiwan, that would increase the tensions. And there are quotes from those who, if they don't speak for the Chinese regime, seem to speak, you know, in concert with them, including a quote from "The Global Times," a former "Global Times" editor, this is the state run "Global Times," who tweeted, quote, that if Pelosi went to Taiwan, there would be a shocking military response and said China will restrain her and punish her.

JOHN KIRBY, NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL COORDINATOR FOR STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS: Yes.

BERMAN: Do you have any concerns about that?

KIRBY: Well, look, I'll let the speaker talk about her travel plans. Our job is, of course, to make sure she has all the context and information before she travels anywhere. But that kind of rhetoric coming out of the Chinese side is clearly unhelpful and not necessary. I mean, again, there's been no - there's been no trip announced. And there's no call for that kind of escalatory rhetoric.

Again, none of this has to devolve into conflict. Nothing's changed about our policies with respect to one China or supporting Taiwan's ability to defend itself. So, there's no reason for this to be escalated, even in just rhetoric.

BERMAN: If she were to not go at this point, would that send a message of weakness to China?

KIRBY: Again, I'm not going to get ahead of the speaker's travel, John. As far as I know, she's not made a decision and certainly hasn't announced anything. Again, our job is just to make sure she has the context and information available so she can make the best decisions wherever she goes.

John Kirby, always great to speak with you. Thank you so much for joining us this morning.

KIRBY: You bet, John. Yes.

BERMAN: Pope Francis begging for forgiveness for the, quote, evil inflicted by Catholics in Canada. Was his apology accepted?

BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN ANCHOR: And President Biden says he does not believe the U.S. is headed toward a recession. Is he right? We're going to ask a leading economist next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:35:52]

JOE BIDEN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We're not going to be in a recession, in my view.

My hope is we go from this rapid growth to a steady growth. And so I'll see -- we'll see some coming down. But I don't think we're going to, God willing, I don't think we're going to see a recession.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KEILAR: All right, the president there trying to ease fears of a recession as the White House braces for critical new economic data to be released this week.

So, is the president right? Let's ask famed economist Mohamed El- Erian. He is the president of Queens' College, Cambridge, an adviser to Alliance and Gramercy.

Muhammad, thank you so much for being with us this morning.

Is he right?

MOHAMED A. EL-ERIAN, PRESIDENT, QUEENS' COLLEGE, CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY: Thank you.

He's right that we're not in a recession right now. Most economists would agree that the definition of a recession goes beyond the notion of two GDP - two quarters of negative GDP growth. So, we are not in a recession right now.

Looking forward, the risk of recession is unfortunately high, and mainly because the Federal Reserve is hiking interest rates aggressively into a slowing economy, and it could push us into recession.

KEILAR: And it could push us into recession.

What -- let me ask you about this Walmart move that we're seeing here, cutting prices on general merchandise. How are you reading that?

EL-ERIAN: That's what normally happens in a cycle. So, prices go up, demand gets destroyed, companies suffer not only on the cost side, their costs going up of inflation, but the revenue side starts coming down, and they start losing sales. So, what do they do? They cut prices. That's why I think we've reached the peak of inflation for now, and the issue is going to shift very quickly to the recession risk as opposed to the inflation risk that we've been dealing with.

KEILAR: What is the back side of that peak look like as a timeline for inflation, though?

EL-ERIAN: You're absolutely right to ask that. It doesn't look good. Inflation is likely to be sticking on the way down. And because the Fed is so late, the inflationary process has gotten entrenched and is quite wide. So, the fall in inflation is not going to be sharp enough. And that's why the concern is that we will be pushed into recession by a very late Fed scrambling to catch up.

KEILAR: And as the White House considers student loan debt forgiveness, how would that impact inflation?

EL-ERIAN: At the margin it may somewhat add to inflationary pressures, but I wouldn't worry about that. I think you need to look at that in another context. Part of the problem today is that purchasing power is being eroded by higher inflation and we're likely to get income insecurity because of the recession fear. So, I view the cutting of student loans more in the context of supporting the most vulnerable segments of the population. It's not an inflation issue as much as it is supporting the most - the more vulnerable segments of the population.

KEILAR: Mohamed, thank you so much for being with us this morning. Everyone's looking for answers as we throw around the "r" word. And you're certainly someone to give them to us. Thank you.

EL-ERIAN: Thank you.

BERMAN: You know, how he described inflation as it comes down --

KEILAR: Sticky.

BERMAN: Sticky. And that's the problem. And that's the potential problem with the fact that the Fed waited, (INAUDIBLE) criticized the Fed for waiting to raise interest rates, as they are, is it means that inflation might last longer and could have a more lingering impact on the economy. It definitely bears watching.

KEILAR: Yes, he's very critical of the Fed. It's interesting to hear it.

A Texas state trooper was at the scene of the Uvalde school shooting five minutes earlier than previously known. What the new body camera video reveals.

BERMAN: New this morning, a grisly discovery at Lake Mead as the water levels continue to plummet.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:43:42]

BERMAN: Time now for the "5 Things to Know for Your New Day."

The White House is expected to name a monkeypox coordinator to amp up the administration's response to a growing number of U.S. cases. Nearly 3,500 cases have been identified nationwide. Dr. Anthony Fauci told me moments ago that declaring it as an emergency is under active consideration.

KEILAR: And more human remains have been found at Lake Mead, 30 miles outside of Las Vegas. This is according to the National Park Service. Authorities are now working to figure out the cause of death here. This is at least the third body found in the Lake Mead area as water levels plummet.

BERMAN: Republican Congressman Glenn Thompson of Pennsylvania voted against the Respect for Marriage Act, a bill that would codify same sex and interracial marriage nationwide. Three days later, he attended his gay son's wedding, saying he was very happy to welcome his new son-in-law into the family.

KEILAR: And Pope Francis trying to atone for the Catholic Church's role in the abuse of indigenous children in Canadian Catholic schools over the course of decades. He described the abuse as a deplorable evil and called for a serious investigation into what happened.

BERMAN: U.S. Space Command is tracking a Chinese rocket as it falls to earth, uncontrolled, after China successfully launched a second module for its space station. Last year the remnants of a Chinese rocket plunged into the Indian Ocean, near the Maldives, ten days after launch.

[08:45:02]

KEILAR: Those are "5 Things to Know for Your New Day." Don't forget to download the "5 Things" podcast every morning. Just go to cnn.com/5things. And you can also find it wherever you get your podcasts.

BERMAN: This morning, new police body cam video reveals a Texas state trooper was on the scene of the elementary school shooting in Uvalde five minutes earlier than previously known.

CNN's Rosa Flores live in San Antonio with the latest on this.

What's going on here, Rosa?

ROSA FLORES, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, you know, John, this is significant because until now Texas DPS has really just pointed the finger at the locals saying that the law enforcement response was an abject failure. So let me take you through this, because according to the timelines released by Texas DPS and also testimony by Colonel McCraw, the shooter entered that school at 11:33 a.m. And that the first Texas DPS trooper entered the hallway at 11:42. That's nine minutes after that shooter entered.

Well, this new body camera footage, what it shows, is an officer walking towards the west entrance. And that's the same entrance that the shooter entered. And there's a Texas DPS officer. And the time code is 11:37:51 that morning. So that's only four minutes and 51 seconds after the shooter entered. And that trooper was already there. It's unclear exactly when he actually arrived on scene.

But I did go back to the testimony by Colonel McCraw that he gave the senate last month and he stated that that particular trooper drove the school police officer that was part of the initial response. And if you look at the surveillance video, that school police officer first comes into frame in that surveillance hallway video at 11:36:18.

So, clearly there a lot earlier than we had previously known. And we asked Texas DPS about this and here's what they said. They sent us a statement, quote, saying, the director's testimony is accurate regarding what DPS personnel entered that hallway and when they entered. Our internal committee is currently reviewing whether or not those individuals violated any department policies or doctrine.

And in the strongest statement released yet to CNN, the district attorney, the DA, telling CNN that -- that she will not hesitate to indict, to criminally charge any law enforcement officer if the law allows. So being very clear there, John, but she's also being very forceful saying that she's not going to hesitate to criminally charge anyone if the law allows her to do so.

John.

BERMAN: Look, at this stage, they shouldn't be splitting hairs or parsing language about who showed up when. This should be a timeline that should be clear to everyone.

Rosa Flores, thank you so much for your continued reporting. Keep on pressing.

So, new CNN reporting, Chief Justice John Roberts went to great lengths to try to save Roe v. Wade. Also an update into the investigation of who leaked the opinion.

KEILAR: And the fast-moving Oak Fire continues to rage in California. The local fire chief there calling it unprecedented. CNN is live on the ground.

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[0852:38]

KEILAR: Happening right now, in California, the intense and fast- moving Oak Fire, which is just south of Yosemite National Park, has burned more than 17,000 acres, it's destroyed dozens of homes and it is raging.

CNN's Camila Bernal is joining us live from Mariposa County on the very latest there.

We can see the embers behind you from where the fire has passed by.

CAMILA BERNAL, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Brianna. Absolutely. And those are the kinds of things that firefighters are still working on, trying to put out some of these hot spots, because there is still a lot of work to be done here. Officials say this is an unprecedented fire, and that's because of the speed at which these flames are traveling. And, look, it is dry here. It is part of the reason why the flames are

traveling so fast, the ongoing drought here in a state of California. It causes things like a bark beetle, it kills a lot of the pine trees in this area, so you have a lot of dead trees, a lot of dead material, and all of that creates the perfect conditions for this fire to spread quickly.

Experts say this is a result of climate change. It is sort of a domino effect, if you will. And what we're left with is 17,000 acres just burned and destroyed. Fifty-five structures also destroyed. That number going up significantly. We know there are a lot of crews here. They do say that they're making progress. That they are trying their best, working 24/7. They say they dropped 300,000 gallons of water yesterday. The fire retardant, they're creating those fire lines, putting out the hot spots. But, still, a lot of work to be done here, Brianna.

KEILAR: Yes. Wow, look at that behind you.

Camila, thank you so much for that report, live for us from California.

An escalation in the Justice Department's investigation into January 6th as prosecutors interview a top Pence adviser.

BERMAN: And what are your chances of hitting the Mega Millions jackpot? More importantly, what are Harry Enten's chances?

KEILAR: My chances.

BERMAN: The odds, coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:57:11]

BERMAN: All right, the jackpot for tonight's Mega Millions drawing has climbed to $810 million. The last time someone won was back in April.

CNN's senior data reporter Harry Enten here for all the numbers you need to know.

HARRY ENTEN, CNN SENIOR DATA REPORTER: Yes, all the numbers you need to know. Let's put this into some context here. Biggest jackpots ever. This ranks number four right now at $810 million. Not quite the $1.6 billion that we had back in 2016, Powerball, or the over $1 billion that we had, Mega Millions, in 2021 and 2018. But, still, $810 million, I'd take it.

BERMAN: What are your chances of winning, Harry?

ENTEN: What are your chances of winning? Well, your chance of winning is 1 in 302.5 million per ticket. That's not particularly high because there's a 1 in 1.2 million chance of getting struck by lightning this year. There's a 1 in 1,461 chance of being born on leap day, February 29th. And my Buffalo Bills have a 1 in 6.5 chance of winning the 2023 Super Bowl. If you want to increase your chances of winning, pick higher numbers, numbers that aren't birthdays or anniversaries.

KEILAR: So, do people, you know, writ large, actually play the lottery?

ENTEN: Not really. I mean, look, most people play it hardly ever or never. But just 42 percent say never. Harry's in that hardly ever category at 26 percent. Brianna, John, what about you?

BERMAN: No.

ENTEN: No.

BERMAN: It's a regressive (ph) tax. I'd rather throw my money on the street. You get a better return on your investment.

But be that as it may, Harry, there is a suggestion that people who win the lottery, it's bad. They never end up happy. What's the truth?

ENTEN: The truth is that if you win the lottery, in fact, a lot of these myths are really BS, right? So, it turns out the truth is they remain wealth ten plus years after they win. They see a sustained rise in life satisfaction. I would if I won $810 million. And they take more vacations but they don't actually, in fact, quit their job. If I do win the $810 million, I'll be right back here with you tomorrow morning.

KEILAR: You would be, for sure.

ENTEN: Yes, I would be.

KEILAR: I'm totally going to play this.

BERMAN: Wait, did your mother win?

KEILAR: My mother won the lotto in a pool of teachers when I was like 11-year-old. And she got $10,000. This was like 1990, '91.

BERMAN: So how many teachers won?

KEILAR: Thirteen.

BERMAN: And they each got $10,000?

KEILAR: So, after the taxes, or whatever they pull out, and it was about $130,000.

BERMAN: Were there any lawsuits or disagreements amongst the teachers who went in on the pool because, you know, I've actually met with -- covered lawyers who, you know, handled lottery disputes.

KEILAR: No, not at all. And I'd say maybe that amount of money falls somewhere in the sweet spot of just so happy to have a little chunk of change, right?

ENTEN: If you won, what would you do, because I'd buy a lifetime supply of Diet A&W Cream Sodas. [09:00:04]

Self-indulgent answers only, please.

BERMAN: I'd buy you a lifetime supply of Tums. That's what I would do.

KEILAR: What would I do with that money? I would just feel comfortable that I had security.

ENTEN: That's so nice.

BERMAN: Smile on top of her billions.

KEILAR: Yes.

BERMAN: Harry Enten, thank you very much.

ENTEN: Smiles for all.

BERMAN: CNN's coverage continues right now.