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Rising Hate: Antisemitism In America" Airs Sunday at 9 pm ET; Nearly Half Of Cancer Deaths Due To Preventable Risk Factors; Alec Baldwin: I Feared For My Life After Trump's Comments. Aired 7:30-8a ET

Aired August 19, 2022 - 07:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[07:30:00]

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: Data reporter Harry Enten.

And Harry, where Democrats are looking most specifically is at the Senate map right now. How have their chances improved?

HARRY ENTEN, SENIOR DATA REPORTER: Yes. So, let's just take a look at the overall overarching picture, and this is basically the Democrats' chance of holding the Senate forecast. I've averaged a few of them.

And you go back to the beginning of June and the Democrats' chance of holding the Senate was just 41 percent. You jump forward to June 19, 45 percent; July 19, 47 percent. And now, look at this -- a majority chance that they, in fact, hold the United States Senate. We've seen this slow but steady progress for Democrats now actually being the favorites to hold onto the Senate.

BERMAN: And that's based on a totality -- a different forecast in a totality of polls from the states in play here.

How about some of the specific swing states, when you're talking about a presidential election, which also have key Senate races.

ENTEN: Yes. So, obviously, you have that overarching forecast and what makes up that overarching forecast are the individual states.

And take a look here. This gives you a pretty good idea, right? These are swing states from 2020, right -- Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin -- all basically determined by a point or less.

And look at these Senate races. Look at these recent polls. Democrats, plus six in Wisconsin; Pennsylvania, plus 11; Georgia, plus four; Arizona, plus eight. You see Democrats in all of these swing states actually outperforming Joe Biden's numbers -- which, John, if you had asked me this two months ago, this is quite the shocker.

BERMAN: Right. The polls are outperforming --

ENTEN: Yes.

BERMAN: -- and we'll get to why Democrats shouldn't spike the football in just a second there.

But one thing I do want to point out -- and we're going to talk about this in a second with Dana Bash -- but Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader who desperately wants to elect Republicans to the Senate, is acknowledging that one thing that might matter here is the candidates actually running.

ENTEN: Yes, the candidates that are actually running. And there's an easy way we can sort of test this, right? The net favorability ratings of GOP Senate candidates -- that's the favorable rating minus the unfavorable rating.

And take a look here. Blake Masters in Arizona, underwater at minus five. Herschel Walker in Georgia minus five, underwater. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania -- wow, my goodness gracious -- minus 20, well underwater.

And this one is perhaps the biggest shocker to me -- Ron Johnson, underwater at minus eight -- an incumbent who has been elected --

BERMAN: Right.

ENTEN: -- twice. I think John and I were talking beforehand the Wisconsin numbers, I think, are the biggest surprise to me.

BERMAN: It might be the most problematic because, for an incumbent, you would think those favorability numbers might be the most sticky.

ENTEN: Yes.

BERMAN: The least likely to change.

Now, why shouldn't Democrats be spiking the football two months before Election Day?

ENTEN: Yes. So, this is something that we're going to be talking about I think a lot. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

Which side outperformed their final Senate polls average by year. Last year -- or two years ago now -- I can't believe 2020 is two years ago -- the GOP outperformed their final polls by plus-five points. In 2018, there really wasn't one. But in 2016, the GOP Senate candidates, on the average race, outperformed their final polls by three. And in 2014, the GOP outperformed their final polls by three as well.

So we have seen this sort of thing where the GOP candidates might be underestimated

BERMAN: On the other hand -- on the one hand; on the other hand --

ENTEN: Yes.

BERMAN: -- Democrats have had lousy midterms in Senate races in the past. But this year, the terrain might be different. ENTEN: Yes. So, you go back 2018, 2014, 2010, Democrats lost seats in all of those years -- even in 2018 when there was a Republican in the White House. But the terrain is very different.

Take a look here. These are the Democratic-held seats among those that were up for reelection, and we're looking specifically at those seats that were won by the GOP in the last presidential election. In all the years prior to this one, there were a ton of Democratic-held seats that were held by the GOP -- that were won by the GOP in the last presidential election. Ten in 2018, seven in 2014, three in 2010. But look here -- none of the states that the Democrats are defending were won by Donald Trump in 2020. The terrain is much more favorable for them this year than in any of the prior midterms, at least dating back to 2010.

BERMAN: Yes. No Democratic Senate seats in red presidential states at this point.

Presidential approval rating -- what does that tell us right now?

ENTEN: Yes. So, look, right now, Joe Biden's current approval rating in the Gallup is 38 percent. Not very good. But the question is what is the exact correlation between a president's approval rating and how many seats his party actually goes on to lose or win?

So take a look here. Midterms where the White House party had no net loss of seats, which is what Democrats are hoping, are, in fact, gaining some seats.

Look here -- 2018, when the Republicans actually gained a few seats, Donald Trump's approval rating in the final Gallup Poll was 41 percent. In 1982, where there was no net loss for Ronald Reagan's Republican Party, it was 42 percent. Now, in the rest of the years, they were well above 50 but there is not actually the clear correlation you might expect.

Just because Joe Biden is low it doesn't, in fact, mean that Democrats will necessarily lose seats.

BERMAN: This might be one of the few times where Joe Biden wants to be like Donald Trump in a midterm election.

ENTEN: He'd like to be like Donald Trump or Ronald Reagan.

BERMAN: All right, Harry Enten. Thank you very much for that.

ENTEN: Thank you.

BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN ANCHOR: Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell downplaying expectations of Republicans retaking control of the Senate in November's midterm elections.

[07:35:00]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) SEN. MITCH MCCONNELL (R-KY): I think the -- there's probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate. Senate races are just different -- they're statewide. Candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome. Right now, we have a 50-50 Senate in a 50-50 country. But I think when all is said and done this fall, we're likely to have an extremely close Senate, either our side up slightly or their side up slightly.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KEILAR: Joining us now is CNN chief political correspondent and co- anchor of "STATE OF THE UNION," Dana Bash.

So interesting, Dana, to hear McConnell say this.

DANA BASH, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT, CO-ANCHOR, "STATE OF THE UNION": He does not say anything by accident. And the key, two words in that sentence, "candidate quality."

He is frustrated. We know from reporting that he is frustrated and the reason is because he had the opportunity and still potentially has the opportunity to do extremely well in elections across the board in these key states, but he's not happy with the candidates.

And John and Harry were just talking about some of these key states. If you look at Ohio, J.D. Vance. If you look at Arizona. If you look at Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, of course, that is an incumbent senator -- Ron Johnson, his colleague.

Now, is he specifically saying he's not happy, no -- but if you just look at where the money goes, which will be telling and is always telling in politics. The Senate leadership fund, which is Mitch McConnell's super PAC -- they're pouring a lot of money into these races, particularly in Ohio. And what does that tell us? That tells us he thinks that they need help in a very, very big way.

And guys, we've seen this movie before. Mitch McConnell was in this same spot in 2010. The House went overwhelmingly Republican and the Senate didn't do that because of -- to use Mitch McConnell's words, candidate quality.

BERMAN: Yes. Look, he's a man of few words but lots of dollars -- and follow the money here.

BASH: Yes.

BERMAN: Dana, you have a really interesting special coming up and it's about antisemitism, and antisemitism in the U.S. reached a record high last year. Your documentary is called "RISING HATE: ANTISEMITISM IN AMERICA." It airs Sunday at 9 pm.

I want to play a clip from that.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BASH (voice-over): Antisemitism, the oldest hate -- ugly, deadly, and on the rise in America.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: In Chicago, two synagogues vandalized.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Shooters targeting this Jersey City kosher supermarket.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Three victims are shot and killed at two different Jewish facilities near Kansas City.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Jews are the most targeted religious group in America, says the FBI.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: All I say is never again. But guess what? It is again and again and again.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The threat level against the Jewish community is historic.

BASH (voice-over): Hate, once limited to extremists, fanatics --

CHARLOTTESVILLE PROTESTERS: Jews will not replace us!

BASH (voice-over): -- now mainstream.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: This is a plague.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There is no question that antisemitism is being normalized.

BASH (voice-over): On city streets, online --

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We've seen people livestream their actual attacks.

BASH (on camera): This is disgusting.

BASH (voice-over): -- on college campuses, in politics.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's become a political prop for people on both the right and the left.

BASH (voice-over): How did we get here and how do we stop it?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: They need to be disrupted today.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Whenever challenged with darkness and evil, we will fight that with light.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BERMAN: Powerful, powerful stuff, Dana.

And you wrote an op-ed this morning about a conversation you had with your son Jonah about all of this.

BASH: I did. I wasn't sure if I should write it and I think that speaks to the content of the -- of the essay, but it really put things into light when I worked on this hour.

And that is last Hannukah, he asked me for a Jewish star to wear around his neck and I kind of blew him off because I didn't think it was a real request. And then halfway through, he said "Mom, do you think I'm going to get that?" And I thought -- and I said, "Wait, do you really want it? Why?" And he said "Because at school, my Christian friends wear crosses and they don't have any problem with that. Why should I have a problem with my identity and showing my identity?"

[07:40:00]

And it turned -- first of all, I said OK and I got it for him. But it turns out in doing this special, what I learned from experts in this -- Deborah Lipstadt, the ambassador -- which it's new in the Biden administration -- it's an ambassador-level position to combat global antisemitism -- she showed up wearing a Jewish star.

She said that was new. She didn't do it before. But because of the rise in antisemitism that is a way to normalize the notion of Judaism.

Victims of antisemitism -- I went to Colleyville, Texas, you remember, in January. There were four congregants at a synagogue held hostage by an antisemite.

One of them, Jeff Cohen, told me that he more often wears a skull cap or a kippah in public because he said the way to combat the rise is to say I'm not afraid, here I am, and I'm a real person. Let's talk about it. It's nothing to be, never mind, afraid of, but to -- don't play into the conspiracies that have been going on literally for thousands of years about Jews.

KEILAR: You write about being worried. You know, you wanted -- you were proud of him for wanting to get this, but you write about being worried about what it would mean because of the rise of antisemitic incidents.

BASH: Yes, I was. And he -- I asked him recently -- first of all, to get his permission to write this essay, but also said have you had any issues. And he said no -- no issues at all. And it's just so interesting that he innately knew what I -- what I learned, again through researching and talking to so many people in this documentary.

But the reality is -- this is also going to be in the hour -- that one of the reasons antisemitism is so much more pervasive now is because of what you see online. And what I learned as a parent about what is out there on gaming platforms, particularly gaming platforms that are specifically for young people, is chilling because the people who are trying to recruit, who are trying to lure others into this sort of area of hate -- they know where to find them and it starts young. And that is something that again, as a parent, I learned that we have to be vigilant about much more than I even realized.

The fact that this -- that this notion of antisemitic attacks are -- is so interactive now -- that people go online, they livestream their attacks of Jewish people, and people who are watching kind of respond and comment, and also are asked to donate while it's happening -- it is such a modern phenomenon and it is very frightening.

KEILAR: Oh, it's so disturbing and that's why it's so important what you're doing. Dana, thank you for that --

BASH: Thanks, guys.

KEILAR: -- for being with us and for sharing about this op-ed with us, which is "What my 10-year-old son innately understood about a simple way to combat antisemitism," which you can see on cnn.com this morning.

And you can join Dana as she goes inside the fight against the world's oldest prejudice. The new CNN Special Report "RISING HATE: ANTISEMITISM IN AMERICA" begins Sunday at 9 pm Eastern.

So, new research this morning is revealing about preventable cancer deaths.

BERMAN: And CNN goes one-on-one with actor Alec Baldwin following the FBI report on the "Rust" shooting. Who he's blaming and why he says Donald Trump, he thinks, put him at risk.

(COMMERCIAL)

[07:47:43]

BERMAN: New research suggests that almost half of cancer deaths are linked to risk factors that are preventable -- things like smoking, heavy drinking, being overweight. They were responsible for millions of cancer-related deaths in 2019.

Here now, CNN health reporter Jacqueline Howard. Jacqueline, what have you learned here?

JACQUELINE HOWARD, CNN HEALTH REPORTER: John, I can tell you this new research really puts in perspective how these risk factors have major impacts on our health, especially when it comes to cancer.

So let's break this all done. This new study looked at data from the year 2019. That's the most recent year for which data were available. And it found that 44.4 percent of all cancer deaths globally were attributable to preventable risk factors. So that represents more than four million deaths, as you see here on the screen.

And these risk factors -- the three leading risk factors -- according to this study, for both men and women combined -- were smoking, excessive alcohol use, and high BMI. That's having a high body mass index, so being overweight or obese.

So, John, again, this really puts in perspective how taking care of ourselves can come a long way -- eating right, exercise, not smoking, and watching how much you drink -- John.

BERMAN: Make good choices.

Jacqueline Howard, thank you very much. KEILAR: So this morning, actor Alec Baldwin is speaking out to CNN amid new findings from the "Rust" investigation. Baldwin maintains he never pulled the trigger and explains why he was scared former President Trump put him in danger.

CNN's Chloe Melas has more.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CHLOE MELAS, CNN ENTERTAINMENT REPORTER (voice-over): Ten months in, and confusion still persists over the sequence of events that led to a deadly shooting on the set of "Rust." This week, an FBI report concluded this gun could not be fired without the trigger being pulled while the gun was cocked and eventually malfunctioned after internal parts fractured.

In his first interview with CNN, Alec Baldwin denies pulling the trigger.

ALEC BALDWIN, ACTOR: I never once said -- never -- that the gun went off in my hand automatically. I always said I pulled the hammer back and I pulled it back as far as I could. I never took a gun and pointed at somebody and clicked the thing.

MELAS (voice-over): While waiting for the results of the Santa Fe County Sheriff's Office investigation, Baldwin says he hired his own investigator.

[07:50:02]

BALDWIN: That private investigator, as you probably know, did not have a difficult time accessing the staff of the sheriff's department. And that person told us quote-unquote "We've known in the department since January that Alec would not be charged with a crime."

MELAS (voice-over): A sentiment echoed by his attorney.

MELAS (on camera): Do you think that there is a possibility, though, that he could face charges at all?

LUKE NIKAS, BALDWIN'S ATTORNEY: It would be a huge miscarriage of justice.

MELAS (voice-over): But the then-president fanned flames against him.

BALDWIN: The former President of the United States said he probably shot her on purpose. To me, it was really the only time I thought that I needed to -- that I was worried about what was going to happen. Because here was Trump, who instructed people to commit acts of violence and he was pointing the finger at me and saying I was responsible for the death.

MELAS (voice-over): No one has been charged for the tragedy on set but Baldwin said there are two people responsible -- armorer Hannah Gutierrez-Reed and assistant director Dave Halls. Through their attorneys, they accuse Baldwin of deflecting blame. But Baldwin points to the findings of an occupational safety report.

BALDWIN: Hannah Reed handed the gun to Halls and said don't give it to Alec until I get back to the set. I've got to go do something else. And he proceeded to the set and a) handed me the gun.

MELAS (voice-over): Baldwin said Gutierrez-Reed should have known the difference between dummy rounds, which make a rattling sound, and live ammunition.

BALDWIN: I mean, anybody on earth who works in that business can determine that.

MELAS (voice-over): Baldwin raised questions about the supplier of guns and ammunition for the film, Seth Kenny, who is being sued by the armorer. An FBI report said 150 live rounds were found on set.

BALDWIN: What was the provenance of all the bullets on the set? Where did those come from?

MELAS (on camera): Well, according to the FBI report, as far as I'm aware, the bullets were comingled.

BALDWIN: What -- so if that's the case, then who comingled them? Did Seth Kenny provide her with prop ammunition where he comingled live rounds with blank rounds?

MELAS (voice-over): Questions Baldwin says kept him up at night as he replayed the final days of a talented friend and cinematographer.

BALDWIN: And she was great at her job and she died -- and she died. And that's -- that hurts me every day (crying). You know, every day of my life I think about that. It's horrible.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MELAS: So, Baldwin also told me in this wide-ranging interview -- it lasted almost two hours -- that he tried to get the "Rust" film made even after Halyna passed away because he wanted to have the proceeds go to the family, especially to her young son.

He also told me that in the wake of this, while waiting for the D.A. to announce whether they are going to have any charges or not, he says that he's lost five jobs and that just yesterday he was fired from another project. And that's it been a really difficult time but that he's leaning on the support of his family -- his wife, who is actually expecting their seventh child this fall.

KEILAR: Man, my heart just goes out to the family now without their mother, without the wife. It's just horrific.

Chloe, thank you for that - for that interview.

CNN's David Axelrod speaking one-on-one with former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. What he said about Speaker Pelosi's trip to Taiwan and the January 6 attack. BERMAN: And Boston police going beyond the call when one groom was in danger of missing his own wedding.

(COMMERCIAL)

[07:57:41]

BERMAN: So, a grateful groom is praising the Boston police for saving his wedding day after he, his groomsmen, and several vendors were stranded at the city's harbor waiting for a ferry that they learned wasn't coming.

CNN's Brynn Gingras has the story.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BRYNN GINGRAS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It was a typical summer workday for Boston P.D.'s Harbor Unit when this patrol team got an unusual call.

OFFICER JOSEPH MATTHEWS, BOSTON POLICE: They had a groom in distress stuck at our dock.

GINGRAS (voice-over): Groom in distress. That would be Patrick Mahoney. His wedding set to begin on an island across the harbor and the boat that was supposed to get him there --

PATRICK MAHONEY, GROOM: One of the Thompson Island staff members who was also waiting for the boat came up to us and said you know, it's mechanical issues. We're going to see what we can do but we've got to figure it out.

GINGRAS (on camera): You don't have a boat?

P. MAHONEY: We don't have a boat.

GINGRAS (on camera): Did your face just drop?

P. MAHONEY: Oh, yes, a little bit -- yes. I was like this isn't ideal. Not at all.

GINGRAS (on camera): And Hannah, you knew none of this was happening.

HANNAH MAHONEY, BRIDE: No. I knew something was going on because I knew they were supposed to be there at 12:30. Twelve-thirty comes around, we're getting ghosted. None of the groomsmen are getting back to us and the groom is not getting back to me.

GINGRAS (voice-over): What was happening? Officer Stephanie McGrath and Joseph Matthews stepped in, escorting Mahoney, his groomsmen, the deejay -- even hauling the wedding flowers. A groom no longer in distress as the police boat turned into a bona fide party boat.

STEPHANIE MCGRATH, BOSTON POLICE: When they got on this boat they, like, turned into little giddy kids. They were -- they were cheering. They were -- they were very excited to be on a police boat. MATTHEWS: Yes, some people take a limo, I've seen a horse and carriage, but I've never seen someone take a police boat to their wedding. I think we made their day. They made our day, too.

GINGRAS (voice-over): Mahoney even playing a prank on his soon-to-be bride, taking this picture in handcuffs.

P. MAHONEY: I was going to send it to Hannah and I was like this is a bad idea.

GINGRAS (voice-over): Thanks to the Harbor Unit, the wedding party reached the island with minutes to spare.

GINGRAS (on camera): The fastest you've ever driven a boat?

MATTHEWS: This boat's pretty slow. It's the fastest she could go. We got them there -- yes.

H. MAHONEY: When they were all running up with the biggest smiles on their face -- like, you will never believe what just happened. So they were all like so excited and that made any stress that I had before go away.

MATTHEWS: Congratulations.

P. MAHONEY: Thanks so much.

MCGRATH: How'd the rest of the night go?

MATTHEWS: It's good to get a good call for a change. Sometimes you get not-so-nice calls. It's good to help people out.

GINGRAS (voice-over): And making for an unforgettable moment for the newlyweds.

Brynn Gingras, CNN, Boston.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BERMAN: I love this story so much.