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New Day Saturday

Obama Going to Saudi Arabia to Pay Respects; ISIS to Japan: Pay $200M or Hostage Die; NFL: Evidence Shows Under-Inflated Balls Used; U.S. Troops Could Move Toward Iraqi Front Lines; Potential GOP Candidates Head to Iowa; Divers Fail to Raise AirAsia Flight 8501

Aired January 24, 2015 - 07:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

IVAN CABRERA, AMS METEOROLOGIST: I think we may get four or five inches. So, pretty good snow up there. So, it's a weekend, so that's a good thing.

CHRISTI PAUL, CNN ANCHOR: That's true.

CABRERA: I think a lot of people are still in bed, stay there if that's the case. Otherwise, you're going to have to deal with a big mess on the roads.

PAUL: All righty. Thanks so much. Appreciate it, Ivan.

VICTOR BLACKWELL, CNN ANCHOR: Next hour of NEW DAY starts right now.

(MUSIC)

Breaking this morning. President Obama planning to cut short his trip to India so he can travel to Saudi Arabia to pay respect to King Abdullah. Why the sudden change and questions about the safety of the visit.

PAUL: Japan says it will not give up on efforts to rescue two hostages kidnapped by is, even that the deadline to save them has now passed as of this morning.

BLACKWELL: Plus, divers attempt to pull the fuselage of AirAsia Flight 8501 out of the water. What this means for the investigation and those victims' families.

PAUL: And the NFL says deflate-gate is not just a bunch of hot air. They want to know why the Patriots' footballs were not properly inflated.

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

PAUL: So grateful for your company. We want to begin with that breaking news regarding President Obama and his modification of plans this morning.

I'm Christi Paul.

BLACKWELL: I'm Victor Blackwell.

As we mentioned, President Obama will be cutting his visit to India short to travel to Saudi Arabia. Now, of course, this is coming at a time when there is a great unrest in the region.

PAUL: The change in his plan comes after Saudi King Abdullah died this week at the age of 90. Now, the president left earlier this morning for New Delhi to visit India's prime minister.

CNN's Jomana Karadsheh is live from Amman, Jordan.

But we want to begin with CNN White House correspondent Michelle Kosinski, who is live from New Delhi.

Michelle, we know that Vice President Biden was originally scheduled to go to Saudi Arabia. Why do you think the sudden change? Are you get anything word?

MICHELLE KOSINSKI, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, what the White House is saying is that when they looked at the schedules of when Vice President Biden would land in Saudi Arabia, versus when President Obama was scheduled to leave India, they found that it was such a tight window of time, that they decided to just say, let's have President Obama go to Saudi Arabia, Vice President Biden will remain at home in the U.S.

And this surprised us, too. We just landed in India, a short time ago. We got the news when we landed. It just seemed like it came late in the game.

We asked the White House, well, isn't this something you would have known from the beginning when schedules were being organized. And we haven't gotten an answer back on that yet.

So, we don't know if it had to do with something in the schedules that might not have been nailed down until now. And they decided it was just a tight window of time anyway. The president really only needs to cut his visit to India short by less than a day. Why that wasn't decided ahead of time -- again, we just don't know.

But now, the president will be able to do both. Were there possibly other influences at play? Did the White House decide this would be a better idea to have President Obama appear as other world leaders are going to be there as well? They're not explaining, just saying that schedules allowed it. And now, the president and first lady will be going to Saudi Arabia to pay their condolences.

BLACKWELL: All right, Michelle. Thank you so much.

I want to go to Jomana Karadsheh live from Amman, Jordan.

Jomana, I wonder if there is any indication that there would be any huge change in the relationship between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia with King Salman?

JOMANA KARADSHEH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Victor, over -- what we've seen in the last 24 hours in the first address by King Salman, and also what experts are saying about what is expected, really not expecting much change, they're expecting continuity.

What we saw with the policies of King Abdullah to continue under King Salman, the same thing that we've seen pretty much over the last decade or so to continue. When it comes to U.S. relations, of course, a visit by President Obama at this time is very important with Saudi Arabia, a key ally, in this very turbulent region right now, A top ally in the fight against the rise in radical Islam, in extremism in the region. Of course, Saudi Arabia, last year, at the forefront of that U.S.-led coalition, fighting ISIS, joining those airstrikes.

So, of course, it's a very important time. But also some would say there has been some strained relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia, recently over a number of issues, disagreements about regional issues, including Syria, Saudi Arabia, really wanted to see more done to try and topple the Assad regime there. No secret with that. They wanted to see ground forces there. But the United States' approach was different to Syria.

And also then there is Iran. Saudi Arabia really is concerned about the nuclear talks. They're concerned about a nuclear Iran. And that the U.S. is willing to concede more to Iran than what Saudi Arabia would see.

So, this is a very important visit -- really important for Saudi Arabia to get this reassurance that the United States is still standing by its side, especially at a time where it's surrounded by so much unrest, Victor.

PAUL: All right. Jomana Karadsheh, thank you so much. We appreciate it.

BLACKWELL: Let's dig deeper with Mark Weston. He's the author of "Prophets and Princes: Saudi Arabia from Muhammad to the President."

Mark, now that the president is traveling to Saudi Arabia, what kind of message does this send, especially the last-minute change from Vice President Biden to President Obama?

MARK WESTON, AUTHOR, "PROPHETS AND PRINCES": I think it's a very good idea. Saudi Arabia has been an ally of the west since 1915, for 100 years. So, President Obama is absolutely right to nurture this alliance and keep it going.

I suspect that the president also wants to develop a personal relationship with the new crown prince and deputy crown prince. King Salman is 79 and has had a stroke. The day-to-day running of Saudi Arabia will be by the Crown Prince Muqrin, who's a graduate of the British air force academy, Cromwell. And the deputy crown prince, Muhammad bin Nayef, who's a graduate of Lewis & Clark College in Portland. So, we have the most well-educated Saudi princes that there have been in a long time.

Muhammad bin Nayef at 55 is the youngest crown prince in Saudi Arabia in 50 years. And more than anyone else in Saudi Arabia, he is responsible for driving al Qaeda out of Saudi Arabia. The Saudi police that he was in charge of arrested thousands of militants and killed hundreds of them, and that is why al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is in Yemen, not in Saudi Arabia.

And Yemen has always been a place of difficulty. It has more guns per person than any other country in the world -- it's the only country besides the United States that has more guns per person than we do. And it's also always been ungovernable. In the 1930s, the Saudis had a chance to conquer Yemen. And the father of the current King Abdulaziz said, you fool, Yemen is too hard to govern.

BLACKWELL: Mark, let's talk about the human rights, because anytime you have a conversation about Saudi Arabia, there has to be part of the exchange. There is this flogging, Raif Badawi, sentenced to a thousand lashes, he got the first 50. And it's been -- the next 50 have been postponed several times. The administration has criticized the conviction and the sentencing. What do you think? Do you think the president will discuss that on this visit?

WESTON: Briefly, he probably will. I had predicted a couple weeks ago that the king would pardon the blogger after the first set of lashes. And, of course, the king has died, so I don't think a royal pardon was possible. But the Saudis less often are less interested in punishing people than in keeping dissidents from being dissidents again.

So, I think they've sent a message. There's only so much dissent they're going to tolerate. I'll be surprised if he receives more lashes. There was a time when Saudi Arabia was making great progress on human rights, and they've allowed organizations like Human Rights Watch to come in and make inspections. But in the last several years, perhaps because King Abdullah had gotten so old, the progress on human rights had slowed.

BLACKWELL: Yes, he was known as a reformer, no doubt. But pushing slowly, slowly over the years.

Mark Weston, we're going to expand this conversation throughout the morning. Thanks for being part of it.

WESTON: Thank you.

BLACKWELL: All right. A mother pleads with ISIS to spare her son's life. But will ISIS listen? The fate of two Japanese hostages right now unknown. Their country is scrambling to save them.

PAUL: Plus, the NFL is finally talking about deflate-gate. Did they shed any light on the scandal, though?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PAMELA BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome back to NEW DAY. I'm Pamela Brown in Paris, covering breaking terror developments.

Right now, the fate of two Japanese men being held hostage by ISIS hangs in a balance. There is no word on the men's fate, hours after a ransom deadline expired.

Let's go straight to CNN's Will Ripley in Tokyo.

Will, we know Japan is pursuing various channels to try to save these two men. What options does Japan have at this point?

WILL RIPLEY, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, they're taking several approaches, Pam, as you mentioned diplomatic channels. So, Prime Minister Abe spoke with the king of Jordan a short time ago. It reached out to officials in Turkey.

They're also dealing with back channels, as far as intelligence sources on the ground, contacts who may be able to connect them with ISIS. And, of course, monitoring social media account, any Twitter feeds that are connected to jihadi groups. And, of course, also looking for potential ISIS videos at the site where they would tend to surface, Pam.

BROWN: So, let's look a little bit deeper into that, Will, because we know Japan is saying its doing its best to communicate with ISIS. Do we know more about the extent of that, what that involves exactly?

RIPLEY: Well, it's tricky, because on one hand, the public broadcaster here, NHK, was able to connect with an ISIS PR person and exchange e-mails. They didn't get a whole lot of information. Didn't get many answers to their questions, but they were able to make a connection.

Yet in the Japanese government's case, they have, in spite of all those efforts, not been able to make a direct connection with ISIS. They have perhaps possibly communicated through intermediaries, but they still haven't confirmed the status of those two hostages. And they've been trying since Tuesday.

And so, there's not a whole lot more they can do, unless ISIS decides they want to talk with the Japanese government. And you and I both know there could be a lot of reasons why they're choosing not to at this point.

BROWN: Absolutely. And ISIS is saying it's going to release a statement about the hostages. So far, it appears we have not seen that statement.

Will Ripley, thank you so much for your reporting.

And now, as Japan tries to save those two hostages from death at the hands of ISIS. The hunt of terror suspect in Europe is continuing. And we have learned this morning that President Obama will head to Saudi Arabia on Tuesday as another key ally Yemen faces political turmoil.

A lot going on joining me now to discuss, lieutenant colonel and CNN global affairs analyst James Reese. Also joining, us private security consultant Dominique Gesqua. He's a former member of the French anti- terrorism task force. Dominique, I'm going to start with. I've been here in Europe, in

France, for more than a week now. Since I've been here, I've deny a dragnet of arrest across Europe, not only in France, but also in Belgium, in Greece and elsewhere, since the Paris attacks. In your view, what do you see playing out here?

DOMINIQUE GESQUA, PRIVATE SECURITY CONSULTANT: First, I would like to say we should not overreact too much. You know, based on the ongoing investigation, and on my knowledge, those people were organized, but not that much. The two questions, the responsibility of attacks on the "Charlie Hebdo" newspaper and Amedy Coulibaly in the kosher grocery store, were friends for a long time. Although the Kouachi brothers referred to al Qaeda in the Arabic Peninsula and Coulibaly said, he referred to ISIS, which we find quite weird.

We haven't so far been able to prove that -- they were both linked to any jihadi group. Years ago, a proper terrorist group would have a mastermind in the country. They haven't got a mastermind in France. Remember, in the '70s, the Red Brigade. You know, they have to be in the country to have a safe housing, communications, weapons network. It's not the case here.

So, we shouldn't fantasize too much about how professional those people are, you know?

BROWN: Right. That's the sense I'm getting is that it's more slipshod than highly organized than sort of under the direction of command and control.

Colonel Reese, I'm going to go to you, because as we talk about, there's a lot going on in Yemen, a lot of chaos. What is the implication for the U.S., as far as what we're seeing in Yemen? Why should Americans care so much about this?

LT. COL. JAMES REESE (RET), CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: Well, Pam, good morning.

The first thing Americans need to be concerned about is, can we continue to conduct counterterrorist operations against AQAP, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, without the current government being stepped down. And there's really no government involved as a sovereign nation of Yemen, we have to take a pause in our counterterrorism operations, which again allows AQAP continue work and knows without looking at them. So, it's a concern for all of us that we have to try to get these political diversions back on again.

BROWN: How concerning is that to you, Dominique, given your experience in counterterrorism that al Qaeda might be able to sort of seize on this opportunity and just gain in strength?

GESQUA: I think al Qaeda, as well as ISIS, are taking any opportunity. What they do basically, the leader of those jihadi groups, they're both looking for chaos in the poorest countries in the world. The leaders are not able to travel anymore. So, the only thing they can do is to try to, through radical imams in Europe, to instill fear in people's minds. It's -- al Qaeda in the Arabic Peninsula claimed that they all do, the

attacks in Paris, there is no proof in that. They only took the opportunity, the two brothers claimed. They went to Yemen to study there. There is absolutely so far no proof that they were connecting to a proper network, you know?

So, I wouldn't say -- to my expertise, I wouldn't say that there is a sleeping cell in France, Belgium, or Europe at the moment. There's radical Muslims, radical imams in prison, mainly, spreading the word.

And some lost and weak people, the Kouachi brothers or Coulibaly, years ago, could have claimed, we are linked to Hezbollah, (INAUDIBLE) with jihadist group, they are just looking for a code. They are not religious Muslims. They want to fight whoever. They're angry. They're not happy in their own country and they could say ISIS or al Qaeda, depending on their mood.

So, we shouldn't just pay too much attention.

BROWN: Right.

GESQUA: There is no, at this stage of the investigation, a link between those jihadi group, terrorism groups and the so-called "sleeping cells" in France, or Belgium, or anywhere in Europe.

BROWN: OK. All right. Thank you so much, Lieutenant General James Reese and Dominic Gesqua, we appreciate you coming on.

Christi and Victor, Back to you.

BLACKWELL: Pamela, thank you. You know, it's been dubbed deflate- gate. It's a gate.

PAUL: OK, it's a gate.

BLACKWELL: Yes.

Is the NFL any closer, though, to figuring out how the Patriots ended up using deflated footballs in the AFC championship?

PAUL: We're also covering the winter storm hitting a good chunk of you who are making up in the Northeast. Live pictures for you here. That's our roving camera chasing the storm.

And photographer Tom Jerich (ph), live picture, Tom. Thank you. He's in Red Bank, New Jersey. That's what's happening there. But we're go to be calling on him all morning as he heads north.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLACKWELL: Twenty-two minutes after the hour.

Now, the NFL is trying to figure out if there was any intentional wrongdoing in what has been dubbed by some "deflate-gate." The league says the Super Bowl-bound New England Patriots used footballs that did not meet specifications in the first half of the AFC championship game last Sunday.

Let's bring in Sara Ganim. She is comfy, cozy, outside of Gillette Stadium, the Patriots hometown.

Sorry you had to be in the snow for this. But, Sara, has the NFL gotten closer to figuring out what happened and who is responsible?

SARA GANIM, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Victor. Yes, very cozy here.

And the NFL finally breaking its silence on the so-called deflate- gate, saying that there is evidence that the Patriots used underinflated footballs in their AFC Championship game. But now the question is, how did that happen? And was it intentional?

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

TOM BRADY, NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS QUARTERBACK: I have no knowledge of anything. I have no knowledge of any wrongdoing.

BILL BELICHICK, NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS HEAD COACH: I have no knowledge whatsoever of this situation.

GANIM (voice-over): Their head coach and biggest star quarterback Tom Brady have both denied any knowledge or involvement. But deflate-gate continues to dog the New England Patriots on their way to the Super Bowl. Yesterday, the NFL released a statement saying evidence suggests the Patriots didn't use underinflated footballs during the first half of the AFC Championship game. The league says it's investigating the matter, quote, "to determine the explanation for why footballs used in the game were not in compliance and specifically whether any noncompliance was the result of deliberate action."

The Patriots are cooperating with the investigation, according to both the NFL and to Patriots' owner Robert Kraft. The controversy began last weekend during the game against the Indianapolis Colts. Reports surfaced that 11 of the 12 footballs provided by the Patriots were underinflated by about two pounds per square inch each. An under inflated ball is easier to grip, giving the passer and his receivers an advantage.

BRADY: You know, I didn't alter the ball in any way. Once I approved the ball, like I said, that's the ball that I expect out there on the field.

GANIM: According to NFL rules, a referee inspects each football about two hours before kickoff and again at halftime. The league says the footballs were properly inflated for the second half of the game. As the investigation continues, Patriots players are downplaying the controversy and looking ahead to the Super Bowl.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm done with all that. Like I said my focus is Seattle.

(END VIDEOTAPE) GANIM: Now, the NFL says that they've done more than 40 interviews. Interestingly this week, Tom Brady, the quarterback said he hadn't been interviewed yet. But the NFL's investigation is still ongoing. They're still conducting interviews, still examining evidence.

And they have no timeline on this investigation, Victor, which leads many people to be believe, it may not be done. We may not have answers before Sunday's Super Bowl -- Victor.

BLACKWELL: Yes, probably in the off season, they'll get some answers, if not before the start of next season.

Sara Ganim there for us outside Gillette Stadium -- thanks.

Christi?

PAUL: All right. Still ahead, the deadline has come and it has gone. And still, no word on the fate of two hostages being held by ISIS in Syria. What will Japan do now?

Plus, possible Republican candidates hitting the campaign trail in Iowa. It is the no-shows, though, that has everybody talking. We are talking about it with a political panel and you know they're fired up about this.

Plus, we covered the winter storm that's hitting so much of you in the Northeast. These are live pictures of our roving camera chasing the storm. Photographer Tom Jerich is bringing us these live pictures right now as he gets back on the roads. Do be careful out there, that was really slick, that's in New Jersey we're going throughout the morning as he heads north to make sure we keep you safe.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PAUL: Mortgage rates inched up this week. Here's your look.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Welcome back. I'm Pamela Brown in Paris, covering breaking terror developments.

The world is waiting to find out the fate of two Japanese hostages in ISIS' hands. ISIS has demanded that Japan pay $200 million or ISIS says it will kill both men.

Plus, protests in Yemen as the U.S. pulls out some of its staff at its embassy there in Yemen. As Shiite rebels apparently control the capital of Sana'a.

And we're also hearing U.S. military advisers may be headed to Iraq, near the front lines in Mosul. A lot of developments. And now Pentagon officials now tell CNN the U.S. is prepared to recommend a small number of troops to the front lines in Iraq.

CNN's chief national security correspondent Jim Sciutto has more.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): This is the front line in the war against ISIS. Kurdish militia battling the terror group on the outskirts of the northern Iraqi city of Mosul.

The Pentagon tells CNN it is now prepared to recommend a small number of U.S. military advisers join this fight on the front lines if necessary. Accompanying Iraqi ground forces when they launch an assault to retake the city this spring. This despite repeated promises by the president that he will not place U.S. troops in combat.

Today, White House spokesman Josh Earnest said Mr. Obama stands by that pledge.

JOSH EARNEST, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: He does not believe that it would be in our best interests for a large-scale military deployment to be executed in Iraq. That committing more American ground troops in a combat role to Iraq is not in our best interests.

SCIUTTO: The U.S. and Iraq have markedly different timetables for the assault in Mosul. Iraqi commanders insist they are ready now. U.S. commanders disagree. A difference that is clearly testing the patience of Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi.

HAIDER AL-ABADI, IRAQI PRIME MINISTER: Everyone has got his own timetable, of course, due to logistics and priorities. This is important that everyone matches the Iraqi timetable, rather than their own.

SCIUTTO: The fight against is also has two different realities on different sides of the Iraq/Syria border. In Iraq, the terror group has seen its momentum stop, the Pentagon says. But in Syria, it is still gaining.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It hasn't had any effect really on is' growth in Syria. Now, we have to think of this as a one of theater operation, not two theaters, one joint theater. That's how ISIS sees it. And if they're being hurt in Iraq, they can move to Syria and vice versa.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Jim Sciutto, thank you very much for that report.

Now, I want to bring in CNN global affairs analyst, Lieutenant Colonel James Reese.

Good to see you again. As we just heard, the White House has repeatedly vowed no U.S. troops in combat. That doesn't exactly square, though, with what the Pentagon is saying now, right?

LT. COL. JAMES REESE (RET), CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: Pam, you're right.

But let's keep in mind, we have known for several months now that the Pentagon, Admiral Kirby, has been make something announcement. There's always been plans by the joint chair, you know, General Dempsey, that if need be and the conditions are set correctly, they would look at putting certain bodies on the ground to assist and mentor the Iraqis, if needed, if those conditions were set.

BROWN: So, do you think that's the answer?

REESE: Pam, I do. I mean, one of the things is, and again, this will become a very political and a lot of people throwing barbs back and forth. But at the same time, the Iraqis have the people, but they do not have what we would all the enablers or the effecting aspects to help the Iraqis -- the artillery, the close air support, the folks on the ground that can do that for them, the logistics.

And this is where our special operators do the best, very small numbers. They go out there and embed with the Iraqis and they literally, coach, and mentor. It's like being a coach on the field and making sure they're over there, making sure they're over here. They're doing what they accomplish what they need to do, and get back the land that they need to do.

So, it is say smart move. But again, I think General Dempsey will continue to watch this and will not commit to it until he thinks they're ready to go.

BROWN: Because critics of this, though, Lieutenant Colonel, are going to say, look, this is just going to open up a can of worms, you know, we're just going to find ourselves where we were with Iraq. What do you say to those critics?

REESE: Yes, I disagree. I mean, we have precedence, throughout history in our special operations, doing this exact type of mission and being very successful. Where it gets fumbled up is when the politicians start putting their fingers in there and start going back and forth and really looking to get a wick win, per se.

I'll give you an example. In Yemen, right now, we have special operations and have had them working the Yemenis, working counterterrorism. Again, coaching, teaching, mentoring them to help us, you know, do the counterterrorism aspects.

During Vietnam with the mountain yards, we had the Green Berets to that. We've done it with the Iraqis. We've done it with the Jordanians. So, we've done it with the Pakistanis and Afghans. There's a very successful way to do it. We've just had to have hassle now and has some patience and let this work out, because what we really want to do is have the Iraqis have the lead, have the Iraqis fight this fight.

BROWN: All right. Lieutenant Colonel James Reese, thank you very much.

Christie and Victor, back to you in Atlanta.

VICTOR BLACKWELL, CNN ANCHOR: Pamela, thanks. We've been covering breaking news this morning: President Obama

cutting his trip to India short and he'll go to Saudi Arabia. The president took off Air Force One about 30 minutes ago. We've got video here of the president and first lady boarding a jet. They'll head first for a stop in Ramstein for some refueling, and they'll head to India and then on to Saudi Arabia on Tuesday.

We'll have more on the story at the top of the hour.

PAUL: Also, some of the Republican hopefuls in 2016 stumping in Ohio. It's starting people. Some of the biggest names, though, aren't there. We'll talk about what that means.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLACKWELL: Check your calendar. Just to make sure, it does say 2015, right? All right, mine, does, too.

But we're already getting into the 2016 cycle, the 2016 campaign. They're starting unofficially in Iowa today in some respects.

Potential Republican candidates like Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, are all hitting the podium today in Iowa at the Iowa Freedom Summit. But the summit is not just as notable for who is there you, but also

for who is not going to be there. Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney, Senator Marco Rubio and Senator Rand Paul.

Let's discuss with CNN political director David Chalian, who is in Des Moines covering the summit. We also have CNN Politics senior correspondent Chris Moody.

David, I want to start with you. What can we glean from the list of people who will be there and those who will not?

DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Good morning, Victor.

Yes, basically, I'm standing at what is unofficially the starting line for the presidential race in 2016. What you're going to have here today are basically 1,200 core activists. They are mostly social conservatives. They dominate the process in the Iowa caucuses next year.

This is the key constituent core. What you're going to seeing today is the beginning of the poking and prodding. This is a big cattle call. And Iowans love to poke and prod their presidential candidates. They see that as their right for being first in the nation.

So, you're going to have 1,200 activists here today. And they're going to get to hear from all folks across the spectrum inside the party. As you were saying you got conservative candidates like Rick Santorum or Mike Huckabee, two former past winners of the Iowa caucuses. But I also think all eyes today are going to be on Chris Christie, because this is not his normal blue state. This is not his natural base being a blue state governor from New Jersey, and I think everybody is going to watch how he's received by this very conservative Iowa crowd.

BLACKWELL: Chris, the poking and prodding that David brought up is part of the Iowa caucus. But according to the Web site, this event will not have an opportunity to interact with the featured speakers. So, who is the real audience here?

CHRIS MOODY, CNN POLITICS SENIOR CORRESPONDENT: The audience, first of all, there's national media watching this thing. So, there's people all over the country. But David is right, this is a core group of the constituency that are going to be participating. Look, casual passive observers of politics don't wake up early on a Saturday morning in the middle of winter and go see a bunch of presidential speeches or interviews. These people are very involved in this.

And, you know, a lot of times, the candidates will come down and talk with people after their talks and this is going to give a chance for Iowa Congressman Steve King to ask them a lot of questions. This is not necessarily going to be just a place where they can come and talk about whatever they want. King is going to set the agenda and ask them the questions he wants to ask.

BLACKWELL: Yes, Representative Steve King is sponsoring this, along with Citizens United.

David, who really needs his support? Who does he need to tap on the shoulder after this?

CHALIAN: Well, I think every one of them would like his support. Some may court it more actively than others. But clearly, in his district in the state which is sort of a bastion of a lot of caucus- going votes. I mean, that's where a lot of Republicans live, a lot of activists in the party are in Steve King's district. So, clearly, any candidate seeking the nomination would love his support.

Democrats, of course, are going to try to make hay of it because of Steve King's position on immigration. They're going to try to start to tag everybody on this stage with Steve King's controversial stances. That is something that we'll watch how the candidates (AUDIO GAP). But I can't imagine a candidate would turn down a Steve King endorsement.

BLACKWELL: Yes, you talked about the controversial statements. Let's put up on the screen a tweet that got a lot of attention, the Steve King sent out, "Obama perverts prosecutorial description by inviting a deportable to sit in place of honor at State of the Union with first lady."

Chris, is it likely that's why we're not seeing Mitt Romney, we're not seeing Rand Paul, we're not seeing Jeb Bush and others today, just too hot?

MOODY: In the case of Rand Paul, he has campaigned with Steve King. He's spoken at fund-raisers for him. So, I think he's very comfortable with him.

But -- and this could be part of the reason why guys like Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney aren't there. But I think the real reason is, there are really two campaigns going on in this primary right now. There's the people primary which is what's going on in Iowa where David is. And there's also the money primary which is where Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney are.

Those two gentlemen are working towards the same pots of gold here. And they are competing for it right now. And trying to reach donors as fast as they can, to say, look, I'm going to be your guy in 2016. Keep your powder dry and here's why.

So, that's what they're busy doing right now. Particularly Jeb Bush, and also Marco Rubio is holding his own event down in Florida, this weekend, speaking to donors as well. So, that's really where their interest is at this point in the process. BLACKWELL: Yes, we talked a lot about Steve King, also sponsored in

part by Citizens United which, of course, led to that landmark ruling that allows so much unlimited amounts of money to be involved in the political process now.

David, Chris, thank you both.

MOODY: Thank you.

CHALIAN: Thanks.

BLACKWELL: Christi?

PAUL: There are new problems this morning for the divers trying to pull the main wreckage of AirAsia Flight 8501 from the bottom of the Java Sea. We're talking about their latest struggle and how close they are to getting this job done.

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PAUL: Forty-seven minutes past the hour. So glad to have you with us.

We know that divers will try again tomorrow to lift the main wreckage of AirAsia Flight 8501 from the bottom of the Java Sea. Earlier today, crews were forced to call off that operation because of bad weather. The teams are using lift balloons to try and float the fuselage to the surface. That's the same technique they used in fact to raise the tail of this plane.

But we want to talk to CNN's aviation specialist Mary Schiavo. She's also the former inspector general of the U.S. Department of Transportation, about this.

Because, Mary, we heard earlier from other reporters that one of the straps broke as they were trying to lift this thing up. So, they're going to have to try again. Is this the best option to try to get this fuselage up to the surface?

MARY SCHIAVO, CNN AVIATION ANALYST: Well, it's the best option they have right now, particularly in the bad weather on TWA 100, for example, they used grappling ships, ships that are used to bring up sunken subs. And they've used those in other places but those ships aren't on the scene. As far as I know, they haven't asked for the ships to be there.

So, these are their options and it's very tough in bad weather, because those buoyancy balloons, those floats, you know, they basically are holding that fuselage and bringing it up, and it's complicated by the fact that it's filled with so many human remains. A very tough job.

PAUL: Right. That was my next question: if this fails -- this option fails, does the priority then move to recovering those bodies?

SCHIAVO: Yes. And, you know, it's -- you know, it's a toss-up. It's a choice that they have to make, to go in there and try to get them out or bring them up in the fuselage. It's very dangerous for the divers, of course. In many cases, what they try to do remove the remains first. But here, with them strapped in fuselage, they'll probably bring it all up at one time in one piece, but they do run the risk things coming free in the removal.

But, you know, at this point, dealing with what they're dealing with over there, I'm going to have to say this is the best option they have right now.

PAUL: We learned things about the final moments in the plane's cockpit. We know it took a matter of minutes for this plane, for this -- you know, the pilot, who requested permission to turn around, or to make a turn and to go to a higher elevation, minutes before it was just -- it was taking off and then it was back off of radar completely. Knowing that there was that little time, what do you expect we might actually learn from those black boxes?

SCHIAVO: Well, see who what we're going to find from the black boxes is whatever precipitated I think it was a terribly forceful storm cell because the rise, the climb in altitude is more rapid than what the plane would have done and it's more rapid than what the pilots would have put it into because it's three times the climb rate on that Airbus. They shouldn't have been ascending that fast so we know that it's weather.

But there is an interesting thing on the tracings now that they have, it looks like for a moment, the plane was actually commanded in a turn after the stall, it reached the very high altitude, then stalled which means the air flow wasn't going over the wings and the plane started falling out of the air. But then, it looks like for a few seconds they had momentary control. Then, of course, it made a very precipitous dive, which meant that they had no control at that point.

So, I think they'll be focusing on what happened there and it might have been airbus controls. They might have not put the right inputs in or responded properly to the warning.

PAUL: Well, we know that black box analysis is 90 percent complete. Hopefully, we'll have more answers soon, certainly for those families.

Mary Schiavo, we always appreciate your perspective. Thank you. SCHIAVO: Thank you.

PAUL: Victor?

BLACKWELL: Thank you, Christi.

We've been covering breaking news this morning. President Obama is cutting his trip to India short to go on to Saudi Arabia. The president took off in Air Force one about 30 minutes ago. You see the fist lady with him. We'll have much more on the story and implications at the top of the hour. We're also chasing the winter storm hitting the Northeast.

Photographer Tom Jurek is in Edison, New Jersey, showing us the conditions there. Snow and slush along the side of the road. So, if you're in the Northeast, be careful out there. That's where the storm is hitting hardest.

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PAUL: All righty. Take a look at the conditions in New Jersey right now as we're looking at a brutal nor'easter that's slamming the East Coast. We have our photographer, Tom Jurek, who is out in this mess. As you can see driving, it's not always the snow either. It's the ice.

I'm from Ohio, my husband is from Chicago. You're from Baltimore.

BLACKWELL: I'm from Baltimore.

PAUL: We know how it goes. But it is never easy.

TOM JUREK, PHOTOGRAPHER: Good morning.

PAUL: Tom, are the roads as slick as they look?

JUREK: I would say so. I did see one car spin out on the side of the road and there was police car there. There's not a lot of traffic out here, maybe because it's early Saturday morning. Obviously, it's just more rain than ice or snow at this is point. You can see from the camera lens, it's just raindrops and not snowflakes.

PAUL: OK. But there's no salt trucks or need for that at this point as far as you can tell?

JUREK: I think salt trucks are out protectively. My temperature reads right around the freezing point, so at any point this rain could turn to ice and I think trucks and plows are out just protectively at this point.

PAUL: All right. Tom, do take good care out there. Thank you so much for giving us a good live look at what's happening.

And so, all the folks in New Jersey and New York can take a look themselves and make their own determination whether they want to venture out into this. So, thank you, Tom. We'll be talking to you later. We appreciate it.

JUREK: You're welcome. I'll be here.

BLACKWELL: Thanks, Tom.

Let's got to Ivan Cabrera now, live in the CNN weather center.

Ivan, people can drive in snow.

IVAN CABRERA, AMS METEOROLOGIST: Yes.

BLACKWELL: Ice and this wintry mix, that's what's unsafe.

CABRERA: That's going to be the problem. It's better to see raindrops on his windshield than big snowflakes. Here's the deal where he is, New Jersey here. So we switched over to rainfall here. The rain/snow line is right across 95 here. I don't think it's going to push much further to the north here, so places like Connecticut, Rhode Island and Boston, it's going to remain a snow event and it is coming down heavy.

So, what that means you get snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches an hour, the snow plows are out there but it's difficult for them to keep up. So, they plow the highways and then more snow falls and they just have to keep going all over the place. That's why we like to have people stay off the roads so they can do their jobs. On the back side of the storm light snow as it continues moving through Charleston there, the accumulation will not be as big of a deal as we talk about here in the Northeast where upwards of 8 to 9 inches have fallen. And I think Boston has the potential here for another 3 to 5 inches and perhaps a little more further to the north and west up toward the Merrimac Valley, southern New Hampshire, and then Maine gets all that as well.

What you're seeing here is Monday morning, we have another storm. That is an Alberta Clipper. Doesn't matter what we call them. It's going to produce the same thing, snow, and it is going to accumulate anywhere from 3 to 6 inches and that will happen for Monday.

So, that is not going to be good. Here are the remainder of the winter storm warnings, Pennsylvania, all the way up into New England. So, we'll keep track of the storm and we'll keep you posted on the accumulations which are still occurring in Boston.

BLACKWELL: Yes. And we'll check back with Tom throughout the morning as well.

CABRERA: Absolutely.

BLACKWELL: Thank you, Ivan.

PAUL: Thanks, Ivan.

BLACKWELL: Here is a look at other developments.

Let's start with this, the U.S. Supreme Court, they will review Oklahoma's lethal injection procedures after a botched execution that left an inmate to die slowly and gasping for air. The case was brought by inmates who say the current system violates the Constitution's ban on cruel and unusual punishment. Oklahoma's attorney general defends the practice saying the state's process has been affirmed by two federal courts.

PAUL: The measles outbreak linked to Disneyland in California seems to be getting worse, the number of cases now 68 and it spread across several Western states, as you see there via the map. This is from 59 cases that were reported just three days ago. About 48 of those cases have a confirmed Disneyland connection. The CDC says people who have been vaccinated, you have no reason to worry about the highly contagious virus.

Next hour, though, we're talking to a pediatrician to talk about why this outbreak is happening and really at the end of the day, what can be done.

BLACKWELL: The TSA says it set a record last year. The agency confiscated more guns from carry-on luggage in 2014 than any other time. That's an average of six guns per day. Dallas-Ft. Worth airport had the most seizures, while Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson came in second.

And the Chicago Cubs mourn the loss of Hall of Famer Ernie Banks, he died last night. He was the Cubs' first African-American player known as the Greatest Cub in franchise history having played for the team for all 19 seasons of his major league career. That earned him the nickname Mr. Cub. Officials at Wrigley Field paid tribute to the two- time MVP on the marquee at Wrigley Field. Ernie Banks was 83 years old. And thoughts to his family and friends this morning.