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New Day Sunday

The Search for AirAsia Flight 8501

Aired December 28, 2014 - 06:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

VICTOR BLACKWELL, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome back to the continuing coverage of the breaking news, the search for Flight 8501. Massive search and recovery under way right now for this passenger jet. It's been missing for about 11 hours now in the Southeast Asian Sea there, the Java Sea, over that area, I should say. That's when contact was last had with the pilots.

SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN ANCHOR: AirAsia Flight, 8501 was carrying 162 people when it left Indonesia bound for Singapore. This happened around 5:30 Eastern last night. Indonesian officials say that about 45 minutes later the captain asked to climb above 38,000 feet because of bad weather. So minutes later this plane disappeared from radar. Now airline officials, they're saying they lost contact at 7:24 Eastern. Though Indonesian authorities say they monitored the jet for another half hour before actually losing contact.

BLACKWELL: The Airbus A 320-200 was due to land at 8:30 Eastern last night. And now searchers are combing the Java Sea, they are east of Indonesia for any trace of the flight. And the families obviously are desperate for answers. Now this hunt, as you know, comes less than ten months after Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 went missing as it flew from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing with 239 people aboard. And despite that massive international search effort, there is still no trace of that aircraft.

MALVEAUX: 162 people onboard that missing plane including seven crew members. Passengers were from Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, United Kingdom. I want to bring in our CNN's Will Ripley who's in Beijing. And tell us, what is happening us, because we have been through this time and time again. We know covering the last experience with the MH-370 how painful that was for families who were just waiting and waiting and waiting for any morsel of information about their loved ones onboard.

WILL RIPLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: And this is a time where every hour that passes, every minute that passes for the people that are going through this is just prolonged. And then now put yourself in a position of more than 150 Chinese families here who, you know, still don't have answers. Still don't have answers about what happened in March when that plane disappeared. We know that these families are -- they're in a crisis center. Information is being communicated directly to them. They're being kept away from the media.

But this is just - think about the fact that we are in the last week of 2014, we've had - we've seen now four different airliners based here in Southeast Asia, either go missing or crash. MH-370, MH-17, of course, a Trans Asia Flight 222. We often forget about that over the summer. Where more than 40 people died and people were killed on the ground when it crashed in bad weather. And then also AirAsia Flight 8501. And when you look at the makeup of the passengers onboard, most of them, when you account for crews and passengers, 155 Indonesians, many of those passengers likely were heading there to celebrate the new year this week. This is a time of celebration around the world.

And this is a budget carrier that is relatively -- this is a relatively new thing here in Asia. Opening up air travel to a whole generation of people who can never afford it before. And yet now we have another group of families that have seen their loved ones get on a plane and they won't be coming home.

MALVEAUX: Well, is it possible that it's not necessarily because of the region itself, more people are able to afford to travel? This is an airline company in particular that says now everyone can travel. It's rather no frills airline that that's why we are seeing more people who are seeing these crashes happen, that it's not necessarily that their airlines or their planes are in bad shape, but that simply more people are taking to the skies?

RIPLEY: Yeah, I mean AirAsia has a tremendous safety record. And they are becoming a major player in this part of the world, Suzanne. They're expanding aggressively here in China. Certainly here in China you look at the economic story here. People are making more money, more people are flying because the economy here continues to grow, but even in other countries in Southeast Asia as the marketplace gets more aggressive and as these legacy carriers that tend to charge really high fares are getting undercut and trying to find new ways to compete in a market where you have carriers like AirAsia that offer a much lower price point, it really truly is opening up air travel for a lot of people in this part of the world who could never fly before.

But to have a year like 2014 where four different planes, you know, from this region, carriers in this region went down, it's just something that we never thought we would be talking about again as we, you know, coming into the final days of this year. It's ...

BLACKWELL: You know, Will, that's an excellent point. Because there are people waking up in the U.S. and who are turning on their televisions around the world and seeing another Malaysia-based airliner dealing with a missing plane. We're hearing some or at least we are reading through Twitter some communications between the Malaysians and the government there, the airline officials there and with the airline officials at AirAsia. What is that communication like?

RIPLEY: Well, what we're seeing and what we didn't see a lot of in the initial days and weeks of MH-370s disappearance is there is much faster information sharing. Because sadly, there have been several air tragedies now in this part of the world. Countries that may have had systems in place that prevented information sharing. They've now worked out a way to more effectively communicate. And so you see now just in a matter of hours Malaysia dispatching resources to help the Indonesia led search effort. When I remember flying up, it was U.S. Military search planes and we had a hard time sometimes getting approval to cross over Indonesian airspace. And so, it appears, at least in the initial hours that the countries are working together, offering help. They've been through this before. And they know what to do and hopefully we'll find answers for these families that are waiting right now.

MALVEAUX: All right. Well, Ripley, thank you so much. We appreciate it. I want to bring in our aviation correspondent Rene Marsh who's live on the phone from Washington. Rene, you have covered these plane -- missing planes and crashes for many, many years. And you've been in touch with now both the Airbus and the NTSB. So first of all, what is the Airbus telling you about the aircraft and the Airbus A320-200? What do we know about this plane?

RENE MARSH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, John, I can tell you, you know, to echo a bit what Will said, we know that this particular aircraft has a very good safety record. Airbus releasing some information over on this specific plane saying that it had approximately 23,000 flight hours. And some 13,600 flights. This really is the work horse when we talk about carriers using this - or this design of the airplane. Again, it's a twin engine.

And again, when you talk about how many times that this particular aircraft has and you look at how many incidents have been associated with Airbus A-320, it truly does have a good safety record. I have been Airbus saying that they are still gathering information, so that we are getting limited information from them. I have been in touch with the NTSB not hearing much from them either at this point. But we do know that they're most likely monitoring the situation. And it's situations like this, the NTSB would have to be invited by the countries who are needing the investigation.

There is no reason to believe that they would not be invited. We saw with MH-370 they were involved as well as MH-17, in which we saw a crew from the NTSB dispatch. So, you know, once we figure out what is behind the disappearance of this particular aircraft, if need be, the NTSB would have to believe would also be invited in. Of course, crucial will be those black boxes, the flight data recorders which as we know always holds very critical information. I mean we would get information from those recorders regarding the health of the plane, the engine, if anything did go wrong mechanically with the aircraft, that's where the information we would be able to fall from the flight data recorders, also if the pilots had any conversation within the cockpit, we would be able to hear that sort of information as well.

So, that will be crucial and critical. They are running out of daylight at this point there - as far as the search efforts go. But, again, getting the flight data recorders will be critical, Suzanne.

MALVEAUX: And Renee, we are learning more about the pilots. We know that they were - the captain onboard had a total of 6100 flying hours and the first officer, 2,275 flying hours, is that significant? Is it substantial? Was that an experienced crew? MARSH: Yeah. It is an experienced crew. When you listen to how many

flight hours each of the pilots had, you know, whether it be mentioned quite a bit although we don't know definitively what went wrong. The issue of whether oftentimes, you know, you hear about whether it's thunderstorms, whether it's lightning, turbulence, I visited Boeing. I know it's a different manufacturer.

But all manufacturers put their planes through the same sort of testing and engineering, in which Boeings, for example, during my visit there, they have a lightning lab, in which they put the aircraft through. They simulate lightning. They make sure that the plane is engineered to withstand certain elements of nature like lightning, like turbulence. So, they're built in this way.

However, the critical part to all of this is, when an aircraft is in these sort of weather conditions, how does the pilot react? Does the pilot react correctly? That's critical as well. To your question, Suzanne, you know, does weather play a role? We're still waiting to see. But when you look at the satellite imagery at this point, there is no doubt that this aircraft did go through some very bad weather.

BLACKWELL: All right, Rene Marsh joining us by phone, aviation correspondent in Washington, Rene, stay by the phone. We'll get back with you in just a few moments. Let's bring in now Alastair Rosenschein, a former pilot who previously has flown the path that 8501 was flying. So, Alastair, let's get straight to that point. You and I spent a lot of Saturday and Sunday mornings talking about the flight path of 370. This seems to be one that is - deals with this rough weather often. So, is this weather pattern, this three storms coming together, is this something that is an anomaly or is this something that you as a pilot dealt with on this flight path?

ALASTAIR ROSENSCHEIN: This is very normal in this area. It's very rare that you can do a flight between these two places that would be Surabaya and Singapore without encountering thunderstorms at some point on the roof. But this particular time of year, it is perhaps, well, particularly bad. And that's because the tropical convergence then actually lies, although it circles the globe, it actually lies over the Java Sea, which is precisely where the aircraft was going to avoid weather.

And this one assumed it was doing so to avoid weather, because that's what one would normally do - also so requesting a climb to climb above weather. It is, you know, something - very difficult trying to pick your way through and around these areas of thunderstorms. Usually you take the path of least resistance, in other words, the area where you are going to get the least turbulence and then you will - and radar paints a picture showing you where those areas, particularly bad areas are.

One of the - just (INAUDIBLE), one of the difficulties and actually trying to climb over the weather is that you compromise the aircraft's fliability. Let's call it that. In that you have the less air speeds to play with when you go up higher. The air is thinner. And so, you know, sometimes it's better to remain at the current level or even suspend but go around the weather. Around (INAUDIBLE). It's up - you know, it's up to the pilot on the day. And nobody - on the ground can tell him whether or not he's chosen the right path. Of course, we don't know yet whether this disappearance is a weather-related accent or whether it's some other reason. And there could be a number scenario ...

ROSENSCHEIN: Alastair, we have learned that the pilot was asking to climb above to avoid the bad weather. Do you think that - what does that indicate to you that he didn't ask to go - as you had just mentioned around the weather? What was he dealing with that he made that request?

ROSENSCHEIN: Well, my understanding is that he had to request to divert to the West to get around the weather and also to climb to 380. So, they've done a combination of deviating around and over the weather. So, you know, those are the facts that I've seemed to bring from the Internet, from the various media that's putting up information at the moment. And, you know, that's not at all unusual. I would expect that to be completely normal. What is unusual is for the aircraft not to have re-estabilshed contact with the air traffic control after the diversion.

MALVEAUX: And Alastair, how quickly could he have done that if he was successful in moving to the west and climbing altitude? Could he have done that very quickly to avoid that weather pattern?

ROSENSCHEIN: Well, normally you'll be talking of a period of, you know, typically 10 to 15 minutes, but it depends entirely on the weather situation, at what point the pilot could pass the weather and could therefore rejoin the track. Or - routine direct for the destination, which would say sometime, and - you know, whether he needs to serve a diversion to go away from the weather. But you know, if they're going through an area of let's say moderate to severe turbulence or particularly severe turbulence, they're unlikely to be making a radio call at that point, they'll be trying to fly the aircraft. But, you know, we had kind of guessing here, but there's - we don't know for sure that this is what has happened. But I would rarely expect a pilot to divert and not to contact air traffic again within about 15 minutes. Which should be a typical course of time before you are making other call.

BLACKWELL: Alastair, our law enforcement analyst Tom Fuentes is confident based on what he's learned that this plane will be found pretty soon. Clearly not stretching out the ten months of the search of MH 370. Based on what you know about this company, about this flight path, are you as confident that this plane will be found in fairly short order?

ROSENSCHEIN: Well, I would be brave if I said I was confident. You know, I have predicted that the MH-370 would be found in short order and, of course, I was completely wrong as indeed were many analysts at the time. So, I'm going to hold my fire on this one. I mean normally one would expect it to be located fairly quickly. One thing we can know is that the fuel it had onboard, it allows it fly for about an hour and a half. And the point, at which you could - there be air traffic control lost contact with the aircraft. So, you know, we're talking of a radius of some 800 nautical miles. So, not quite the enormity of the MH-370 which was some 4,000 miles away from the last point of contact.

BLACKWELL: All right. Alastair Rosenschein, a former pilot who actually flew this route that 8501 flew heading from Surabaya, Indonesia, to Singapore. Alastair, stay by the phone. Like all of our guests and analysts this morning, we'll be calling upon you for your expertise and reporting. Alastair, thank you so much. We'll take a quick break. Then, the breaking news, the missing flight 8501, we know that the CEO of AirAsia is route to Surabaya, Indonesia, the departure city of this flight as 162 families wait for word on their loved ones. What happened to this flight?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MALVEAUX: We're following breaking news this morning. A massive search and rescue effort under way right now for a passenger jet that has been missing now for 11 hours in Southeast Asia.

BLACKWELL: AirAsia Flight 8501 was carrying 162 people when it left Indonesia bound for Singapore. That was around 5:30 Eastern last night. Now, Indonesian officials say that about 45 minutes later or so the captain asked to climb above 38,000 feet because of the bad weather. Well, minutes later, the plane disappeared from radar. Airline officials say they lost contact at 7:24 Eastern. Although Indonesian authorities say they monitored the jet for another half hour before losing contact.

MALVEAUX: The Airbus A-320-200, it was due to land at 8:30 Eastern last night. When our searchers are combing the Java Sea that is at eastern Indonesian for any trace of this plane. As desperate families, they're just simply agonizing just waiting for the news. And this hunt comes less than ten months, you might recall, after Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 went missing. As it flew from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing with 239 people on board. And despite this massive international search effort, there has still been no trace of that plane.

BLACKWELL: And we know that the CEO of this company Tony Fernandez, the CEO of AirAsia, he is traveling to Surabaya, Indonesia. He tweeted just a few moments ago. He tweeted to all of my AirAsia all stars, be strong, continue to be the best, pray hard. Continue to do your best for all our guests. I'll see you soon.

So, he's on route to Surabaya. Let's get to our CNN meteorologist Karen Maginnis. Karen, the weather in this area, we understand not just one thunderstorm but a collection of storms could quite possibly what caused this plane to go down.

KAREN MAGINNIS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Well, it was a torrential down pour across this region, but this is typical for this time of year. They are in the monsoon season. Here is Surabaya. This is Java. This is Surabaya. And here is Singapore. You can see a couple of thunderstorm clusters right there and right there. So definitely these pilots need to be aware of this. But they're also trained to go around the thunderstorms or to maneuver or to request diversions when this kind of activity is in the area. This is the monsoon season. It is in the intertropical convergence zone meaning the ITCZ, an area where we start to see a lot of tropical activity. The water is very warm here. And when you get moisture, you get a little bit of lift. And you are going to see this thunderstorms build. And that is an interesting component to what these pilots have to fly

through. By the way, this green circle kind of outlines the region where the plane is estimated to be and at the time there was suddenly no communication for flight 8501. Well, just to give you a broad perspective of what they deal with in

thunderstorms and as I've mentioned, pilots are trained to deal with these thunderstorms, specifically monsoon takeoffs, monsoon landings because there is monsoonal region here.

We get that warm moist air that begins to lift until it becomes super saturated. It can't lift any longer. It becomes too heavy. And then it slides down the thunderstorm. So you get this constant lifting and sinking. And that's what we know as the turbulence. Now, the flight was at about 32,000 feet when they request a diversion to go to 38,000 feet. It may take them five minutes, ten minutes. It depends on their rate of ascent. Here is the flight path, that this flight was taking flight 8501 at about 32,000 feet. Now this airport, we know that takeoff and landings went well here.

But certainly across the Java Sea we had those clusters of thunderstorms. And the tops on them were estimated to be between 50 and 53,000 feet. This flight was at 32,000 feet. Trying to get out of the rough air. And they may have been trying to go around it. We just don't know at this point. Back to you, guys.

MALVEAUX: All right. Karen Maginnis, thank you so much. And as you know, we've been following the breaking news. Please join us throughout the morning here. We're learning information as you are. This is Asia AirAsia flight 8501. 162 people onboard that flight. That plane has been missing. They are about 12 hours ahead of our time. That makes it just about 7:00 in the evening. They're losing their daylight hours to find that plane. But they are desperately searching.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MALVEAUX: Good morning, everyone. I'm Suzanne Malveaux in for Christi Paul.

BLACKWELL: I'm Victor Blackwell. We're coming up at 7:00 here on the East Coast. And the breaking news we've been following for almost 12 hours now, the massive search and recovery effort for this passenger jet in Southeast Asia.

MALVEAUX: Well, AirAsia flight 8501, it was carrying 162 people when it left Indonesia bound for Singapore. And that happened around 5:30 Eastern last night.