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One World with Zain Asher

IDF "Striking Hezbollah Targets" In Lebanon; Source: Biden And Netanyahu Will Not Meet At U.N. Next Week; Harris Teams Up With Oprah For Livestream Event; New Poll Shows Presidential Race Remains Tied Nationally; Hezbollah Vows Retribution After Wave Of Attacks; Trump Supporters Talk To CNN At MAGA Boat Parade; London's Mayor Reveals Plan To Ban Traffic On Oxford Street; Aired 12-1p ET

Aired September 19, 2024 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[12:00:35]

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is CNN Breaking News.

ZAIN ASHER, CNN HOST: All right. Coming to you live from New York, I'm Zain Asher. My colleague, Bianna Golodryga is off today. You are watching ONE

WORLD.

I want to begin for you in Lebanon, where the IDF says it is striking Hezbollah targets amid growing fears of a wider regional conflict. It comes

as the leader of Hezbollah spoke in a televised speech as Israeli jets broke the sound barrier over Beirut.

A short time ago, Hassan Nasrallah said the deadly attacks in Lebanon over the past few days amount to a declaration of war by Israel, and he vowed a,

quote, just punishment. Nasrallah referred to the pager and the walkie- talkie explosions as massacres and warned that all the red lines had been crossed.

The attacks targeting militants on Tuesday and Wednesday killed at least 37 people and wounded thousands more. It is the highest death toll for

Hezbollah since the start of the Israel-Hamas war nearly one year ago.

CNN's Paula Hancocks joins us live now. So, Paula, Hassan Nasrallah is essentially saying, look, this was a powerful blow and certainly a red line

and that Israel could have chosen to just focus on Hezbollah fighters, but they also killed civilians as well.

In terms of response here, in terms of a possible retaliation, Hassan Nasrallah really does have to walk a very, very careful and fine line here.

Take us through that.

PAULA HANCOCKS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Zain, when you're talking about the retaliation, obviously, he gave very few details in this speech as to

what sort of form that could take.

But, of course, the question is as well, how soon could some kind of retaliation come? Because bear in mind that the communications of Hezbollah

have been compromised at this point with the pages exploding, then walkie- talkies exploding. There would be, we know, there is paranoia and fear across Lebanon as to which wireless devices are even safe to use at this

point. So communication is a key factor.

Now, Hassan Nasrallah did refer to this. He did say that the infrastructure of Hezbollah is still robust, that that has not been destroyed. He also

pointed out that Hezbollah's leadership was largely spared as they were using an older version of this pager. So pointing out that the leadership

and -- are still very much intact.

He did, though, point out that he believed that Israel was trying to kill about 5,000 people in about two minutes. This is what he said was the

number of pagers, approximately, that had been targeting, so saying that Israel is crossing the red lines.

But when it comes to how exactly Hezbollah can respond, that is something that we have to wait and see. We have been seeing missile launches across

the border. We also know that there was anti-tank missile that was fired into northern Israel earlier today.

We heard from the Israeli military that eight Israelis were hospitalized in that particular attack. And the Israeli military said that they were, in

the early evening, carrying out strikes against Hezbollah targets in Southern Lebanon.

So we have to wait and see what kind of response there is. But, of course, there are great concerns as to whether this would tip the balance into more

of an all-out war beyond this low-intensity war that we've been seeing for months. Zain?

ASHER: That is, of course, the biggest fear. Paula Hancocks live for us there. Thank you so much.

Let's go straight now to Tel Aviv where Jeremy Diamond is standing by for us. So, Jeremy, as Hassan Nasrallah spoke, we heard those deafening sort of

sonic booms from Israeli warplanes overhead that really sort of shook Beirut.

Clearly, this is a new face in this war.

JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN JERUSALEM CORRESPONDENT: Yes, without a doubt. And we have heard that rhetoric from the Israeli defense minister talking about

the war entering a new era, also talking about the center of gravity of this war, moving away from the Gaza Strip and moving north towards the

Lebanese border.

There's no question that we have seen military moves accompany all of that as well, with the 98th Division moving away from Gaza and towards the

northern front instead.

[12:05:05]

But at the same time, we also have not yet seen this conflict spiral into all-out war, and this is yet another moment where the tensions appear to be

soaring. And yet, we are also seeing the very distinct possibility that both parties might ultimately step away from that edge rather than going

over it.

And it was very interesting to hear Hassan Nasrallah's speech today, because on the one hand, he talked about this attack being unprecedented,

crossing red lines, even wondering whether this could be some kind of a declaration of war.

And yet, at the same time, he was also underplaying the impact that these attacks actually had compared to what he believed was the Israeli intent,

saying that instead of killing thousands, Israel only killed dozens. And that very much seemed to be an attempt for him to step back from the edge

and also to send a signal that this is perhaps not the moment that things will spiral into all war.

That doesn't mean that the tensions have completely de-escalated. He made very clear that Hezbollah is going to retaliate and ultimately that is

where the biggest danger lies in this conflict. It is not necessarily in the intentions of the leaders, but also of course in the very fact that as

retaliation is planned, as it is carried out, it will then, you know, what happens on the ground how much that retaliation impacts things in Israel,

intentionally or not, that is what may decide the course of this war and the extent to which things escalate or de-escalate.

We saw, of course, following the assassination of Fuad Shukr in late July, which was perhaps the highest escalation that we have seen until this

latest moment that it took Hezbollah several weeks to carry out its retaliation.

And even though it fired some 300 rockets and drones, ultimately, nearly all of them were intercepted, and that once again brought tensions back

down.

So we will see what the retaliation that Hezbollah chooses will be and what the consequences of that will be in turn.

ASHER: All right. Jeremy Diamond live for us there. Thank you so much.

All right. When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu comes to the U.S. next week, he won't be meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden, as according

to an Israeli source. The Prime Minister is scheduled to attend the U.N. General Assembly here in New York. A source is telling CNN the Prime

Minister's trip is for the U.N. speech and nothing more.

Let's delve deeper into what is developing in the Middle East. H.A. Hellyer is an expert in the Middle East studies and joins us live now.

Let's just talk about what a war, what a wider war would actually mean for Lebanon of all places. This is a country that has been reeling, especially

economically. Just walk us through what it would mean for them.

H.A. HELLYER, SENIOR ASSOCIATE FELLOW, RUSI: Thank you for having me on your program.

So I think that escalation with Lebanon would be, frankly, quite disastrous, not only for the people of South Lebanon, but more widely,

regionally speaking, because, of course, it wouldn't just be Hezbollah that would jump into the fray.

I think that you could see an expanding of escalation with the Iranians. And I think that you would not see the accomplishment of, quote-unquote,

Israeli goals when it comes to the return of their citizens to the North.

On the contrary, it would just be more war, more devastation, more destruction, and the risk of wider regional conflict.

ASHER: And worth noting that Lebanon has, of course, been reeling since that 2020 port explosion, right, which killed 200 people and wounded 7,000.

I do want to talk about what options Hassan Nasrallah has in terms of how he responds, because he has to -- I mean, the calculation here is really

key. He can't overreact. He needs to show strength without sort of dragging Hezbollah and Lebanon into a wider war. How does he do that? How does he

thread that needle?

HELLYER: Well, I think it's very difficult for Nasrallah, but frankly, it's also incredibly difficult for the Israelis. But the Israelis have shown a

high degree of recklessness when it comes to avoiding escalation in the region over the past 11 months, almost 12 months now. And they've just

reconfirmed that when it comes to Southern Lebanon.

And, unfortunately, the part of the reason for this, frankly, is about the United States. The United States is laid down a number of red lines over

the past six months, in particular, when it comes to Israeli operations in the region, in Lebanon, in Gaza. And the Israelis have walked all over

those red lines and not faced any consequences or accountability for them. So, unfortunately, impunity breeds more impunity. And what we've seen over

the last couple of days, I think is the direct result of that.

[12:10:12]

ASHER: And in terms of, you know, red lines and retaliations, we have to also talk about Iran because we've been waiting for quite some time for

Iran to respond to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran a few months ago. They still haven't responded.

Obviously, they were holding their horses until they sort of saw what played out with ceasefire negotiations. But they see what's unfolding in

terms of Israel and Hezbollah and the attacks on Tuesday and Wednesday this week with pagers and walkie-talkies. Iran sees all of this and thinks what?

HELLYER: Well, I think when it comes to the Iranian retaliation, the Iranian regime doesn't need to retaliate immediately and doesn't need to

retaliate in one big blow. The Iranians can retaliate over a long period of time. They define whatever they will consider to be an acceptable response.

And what I mean by that is that if they fail to respond in the way that we expect, it doesn't mean that they will regard it as a failure. They will

simply present a narrative that says, actually, we meant to keep them on the edge of their seats for such and such amount of time. And we're

responding over a longer period of time with smaller pin-pins strikes. You know, they can easily turn around and do that.

But I think that all of these calibrations and calculations that we've seen over the past few months, they're not calibrated, because you can't

calibrate the law of an unintended consequences always supplies.

If Hezbollah tries to escalate but only just (INAUDIBLE). If the Israelis think that they can escalate by only up to a point, well, they're not --

they're not in control of all the factors that will mean that it will just be up to that point.

We're in a very dangerous situation right now. De-escalation is really quite paramount as a -- as an imperative, but it requires using leverage on

the actors involved in order to ensure that they change their behavior. And, fundamentally, that's a D.C. -- a Washington, D.C. question for the

Israelis.

ASHER: I mean, when it comes to de-escalation, I mean, obviously, the key way to de-escalate all of this is for there to be some kind of ceasefire

agreement between Israel and Hamas to put an end to the war in Gaza.

Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah came out and said, listen. We -- the animosity between Hezbollah and Israel is going to continue as long as the war in

Gaza continues.

How much hope is there that there is going to be some kind of a negotiated agreement? I mean, obviously, we've seen our hopes dashed multiple times

over the past year. How much hope do you have?

HELLYER: I'll be honest with you, I haven't had hope for these negotiations for months. And the main reason for that is, frankly, Israeli media. The

Israeli media have leaked multiple times that Israel's own negotiating team is incredibly unhappy with their own prime minister for being a spoiler in

these negotiations time and again.

Incidentally, these are not ceasefire negotiations. These are negotiations for a pause in the fighting to get the hostages out with the explicit --

with the explicit demand that the path be laid open for returning to war by the Israelis.

I mean, it's announced and stated with many times. So, unfortunately, I don't have much hope for those negotiations because I don't think that this

genuine trust and commitment is actually moving towards a ceasefire.

ASHER: Actually, a lot of Israelis don't necessarily believe that Netanyahu is serious about any kind of temporary ceasefire either.

H.A. Hellyer, live for us there. Thank you so much. Appreciate it.

All right. Still to come, this is no typical Zoom call. Some 90,000 people expected to tune in as Kamala Harris joins Oprah for a live stream event.

And a little later on ONE WORLD, just weeks before the election, will take you inside a MAGA boat parade to hear what Donald Trump supporters are

saying.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DELORES MACE, TRUMP SUPPORTER: There's a contest who can be the most Trumpian, and I want to win first place.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:15:17]

ASHER: With 47 days until America chooses its next president, both candidates are hitting the trail today. Donald Trump heads to Washington,

where he's set to speak at an anti-Semitism event. And Harris travels to Michigan, where a huge online event with Oprah Winfrey is planned.

While Trump continues to make immigration the cornerstone of his campaign, this week, Harris, in an appeal to Latino voters, also turned her focus on

the issue, slamming Trump's proposals.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KAMALA HARRIS, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES AND DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: They have pledged to carry out the largest

deportation, a mass deportation, in American history.

Imagine what that would look like and what that would be. How's that going to happen? Massive raids? Massive detention camps? What are they talking

about?

DONALD TRUMP, REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: We're getting them out of our country. They came in illegally. They're destroying our country. We're

getting them out. They're going to be brought back to the country from which they came.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ASHER: All right. CNN's U.S. national politics correspondent, Eva McKend, is covering both campaigns for us from New York. Eva, I just want to talk

about the Harris campaign, because Kamala Harris is going to be in Michigan today. She's going to be sitting down with Oprah Winfrey for this live-

streamed conversation.

One of the questions I have is, even though we know that black voters in America overwhelmingly support Democrats, we're seeing more black voters

support Trump compared to what we saw in 2016.

You know, with Kamala Harris using heavyweights like Oprah Winfrey, media titans like Oprah Winfrey, can she turn that around?

EVA MCKEND, CNN U.S. NATIONAL POLITICS CORRESPONDENT: Well, the Oprah factor is real. I think it's not only -- yeah. It's not only --

ASHER: Well, over now to another I'm sure.

MCKEND: Yes, indeed. But, you know, Zain, it's not only helpful with black voters. She had the talk show for so long and really illustrated how she

could appeal to a broad section of America, all types of Americans.

And so one of the challenges that the Harris campaign has identified is just keeping up this momentum. They've seen a surge of enthusiasm and

energy ever since the switchover on the top of the ticket, but making sure that people don't lose steam. And you do that by bringing in a big name

like Oprah, getting people to turn out.

This event tonight is a virtual event, but it is going to highlight the work of all of the coalitions, doing the hard work of door knocking and

registering voters. Win with black women will feature prominently this evening.

They, of course, are a group that is extremely impactful. They had thousands of women on a call, on a Zoom call in the moments after Vice

President Harris announced her candidacy and raised a ton of money.

[12:20:12]

And so the goal of tonight is to strengthen efforts like that. Wanting to essentially tell all of these coalitions, we value your time, we value your

work. Let's put our feet on the gas here.

ASHER: So can Kamala Harris win Michigan? How realistic is that for her?

MCKEND: So in the Quinnipiac Poll, she's up by five points. That is outside the margin of error. It is definitely within the realm of possibility, but

it's going to be extremely tough.

She is going to have to rely on a whole host of coalitions in order to pull it off. We know that she is going to suffer with the Arab-American vote.

There is a strong Arab-American community in places like Dearborn, Michigan, and they have shown real despair at the Biden-Harris'

administration's response to Gaza. And I think an unwillingness to even support her, even though they were more willing to hear her out on the

issue.

But they have other coalitions that they can lean on as well. I was just there in Detroit not long ago for a big union rally she held. We know that

unions are an organizing force in this country. And, Zain, they are going to be the ones that the campaign is looking to in order to get those voters

that maybe have previously not been engaged in the process, are always looking to bring in people that have never participated before.

ASHER: Yes, that's going to be key here. Eva McKend, live for us there. Thank you so much.

All right. Let's talk about polls. CNN's senior data reporter, Harry Enten, helps break down these latest numbers.

So this really interested me, because the fact that a lot of people believe that Kamala Harris won the debate that we saw, but yet, it was not

reflected in the polls. This is a 50-50 nation. We have to get used to that.

But does the fact that it wasn't at all reflected in the polls, does that surprise you, Harry?

HARRY ENTEN, CNN SENIOR DATA REPORTER: No, it doesn't really necessarily surprise me, Zain. Very few things surprise me as a born and bred New

Yorker. I guess if someone held the door open for me at Penn Station, that would surprise me a little bit.

But, you know, look, you mentioned that we have polls, polls, polls. So, why don't we just talk about some of the polls that we got out today?

Look, let's start off in Pennsylvania, right? It's the Keystone State, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Basically, the road to the White House

probably goes through Pennsylvania. And this is Harris versus Trump in the state of Pennsylvania.

Look, we got four polls on your screen. They all have something a little bit different, right? Which is kind of what you'd expect with a margin of

error. Quinnipiac, plus five points. "New York Times," plus four points for Kamala Harris. Plus three points for Harris, the Franklin and Marshall

poll. A tie in the Marist poll.

And I'll also note, not even on here was a "Washington Post" poll that had Harris ahead by one point. So a lot of different numbers see here.

But the bottom line is they all generally point in one direction, and that is a slight Harris advantage. But this is Pennsylvania.

You and Eva were just talking about Michigan. So let's go into Michigan. We're going to go into Michigan and we're going to go into Wisconsin, the

two other big, very important Great Lake battleground states.

And both of these polls show the exact same thing in both of the states. I like it sometimes like that when in fact you have a very easy puzzle to

solve. Marist College in Michigan, plus five for Harris. Wisconsin, plus one for Harris. Quinnipiac, the exact same thing.

So you're talking to Eva, can, in fact, Kamala Harris win in the great state of Michigan? Absolutely, according to these two most recent polls.

But, of course, I just threw a ton of numbers at you. So let's just boil it down and take into account all the numbers that we have from the month of

September, not just the ones that we were talking about.

So this is Harris versus Trump in the Great Lake Battleground states. On average, in September polls, Harris is ahead in Michigan by four, in

Pennsylvania by two, and Wisconsin by two. Tight races, to be sure, but one in which you would rather be Kamala Harris than Donald Trump.

So what does this mean for the electoral map? That's what it all boils down to, right? It's a race to 270 electoral votes. Well, if Kamala Harris wins

in Wisconsin, wins in Michigan, and wins in Pennsylvania, she can lose in those southern battleground states, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North

Carolina, and she, Zain, would get to exactly 270 electoral votes, the exact number needed to win the electoral college.

Still a long time to go, a lot of things going on, but the past 24 hours of polling data has, I would dare say, been some of the best that Harris has

received in her, let's say, about two months on the campaign trail so far.

ASHER: It is so easy to forget that it's been such a short amount of time.

ENTEN: I know.

ASHER: I feel like so many -- so much has happened, right? We've had two assassination attempts against Trump. We've had this debate. The list goes

on. We'll see what happens in the next 40 plus days.

Harry Enten, live for us there. Thank you so much.

ENTEN: Thank you.

ASHER: All right. Let's discuss all of this with Hillary Holley. She's Executive Director of Care in Action. A non-profit, non-partisan group

dedicated to fighting for dignity and fairness for millions of domestic workers in the U.S., most of whom are women of color and immigrant women.

[12:25:11]

Thank you so much for being with us, Hillary. One of the things I was talking about with my friend, Eva McKend, earlier in the show. I'm not sure

if you heard the conversation. We were talking about whether or not Kamala Harris' conversation, her virtual conversation in Michigan, tonight

(TECHNICAL DIFFICULTY) more black voters over, because obviously black voters in this country do vote overwhelmingly for Democrats, but we're

seeing more black voters this time around support Trump than even in 2016, particularly black men.

So is Oprah Winfrey enough of a factor to try to change that trend?

HILLARY HOLLEY, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, CARE IN ACTION.: Well, first, I want to say thank you so much for having me on this afternoon.

I firmly believe in black voters. Full stop. Every single year, every single cycle, we see a lot of political pundits and polling that shows that

perhaps Democrats may not do as well with black men and that black voters are trending the other way. But time and time again, black voters, when

they show up to the polls, they end up supporting candidates like Joe Biden in 2022.

And so I believe that Kamala Harris truly does have a path and that is why organizations like Care in Action, but alongside other organizations who

prioritize black men, like the Black Male Initiative Fund here in Georgia, play such a critical role in this cycle.

ASHER: One of the things I also think is interesting is that, this week, we saw a lot of media coverage about Trump's rally in Long Island. Obviously,

New York is, of course, a Democrat state. He was also in Flint, Michigan, another blue area as well.

Just explain to us the sort of strategy behind that. I mean, is it just a power play by Trump to try to sort of get media coverage around his

presence in these typically sort of blue arenas?

HOLLEY: Absolutely. And, you know, I was listening to your colleague in pollster ahead. And this is why we also have to remember that, yes, while

Kamala Harris is just a fraction behind in the polls, that is why we have to continue to prioritize North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada,

because Trump will continue to try to troll Democrats, but here we are staying focused.

ASHER: We are just four days out, or it's been four days since, rather, the second Donald Trump assassination attempt. I can't -- I honestly can't

believe I've been saying that.

But, you know, so obviously, it's too early for polls in terms of how the country reacted. We know that his base, right now, is super energized.

But in terms of any kind of reaction in future polls to that event, do you expect any or is this -- are we -- is this basically a 50-50 nation, 50-50

nation as I was saying to our Harry Enten earlier?

HOLLEY: Well, when it comes to the Electoral College, yes, it is in fact a 50-50 nation. And that is why we have to continue engaging in every single

voter who, if they show up, will most likely vote for Kamala Harris.

But again, this is -- we know that the popular vote is overwhelmingly democratic. And so again, this is about turnout. It is about talking to

every single voters, especially voters who are still undecided, undecided in the -- in the sense of, they have not decided whether or not it is worth

voting.

And so that is what we have to continue to do. That is what Kamala Harris continues to do. And organizations like us and so many other outside

coalitions are going to just keep tripling down.

ASHER: So as Harry Enten was saying earlier, you've got the polls now after the last presidential debate, which, you know, a lot of people say that

Kamala Harris won that debate decisively. Despite that though, it's not reflected in the polls. The polls are still completely neck and neck,

completely 50-50, basically.

But yet, after the debate, Democrats had this real sort of sense of confidence. Was that a false sense of confidence? I mean, it clearly didn't

really pay off for her in terms of how people are going to vote.

HOLLEY: I don't think so. And I think the other thing that we have to remember is this country is changing in regards to demographics. And we

continue -- cycle and cycle, we're getting a little bit better about how to truly pull these incredibly diverse communities in rural areas, across the

Sunbelt, and in urban areas where we are seeing people transition, you know, people coming in from California to Georgia, New York, moving down to

North Carolina. So I always want us to remember that polling sometimes does not truly reflect the diversity of our actual electorate.

[12:30:07]

And I also want us to remember that early voting is about to start. There's actually ballots in North Carolina that are about to be live. And so that's

one thing.

And I will say here on the ground, here in Georgia, it is -- there's so much excitement. Every single day, I live in Stone Mountain right outside

the city of Atlanta. And every day in my neighborhoods, I'm actually seeing more and more Kamala Harris signs going up. And I actually saw one of my

neighbors take their Trump sign down.

And so this is what we are seeing here in Georgia. Polls might not always reflect that. And again, that is why no matter what the polling says, we

stay head first, you know, toes down and we're going to make it happen.

ASHER: Listen, I think we all learned from 2016, not to trust polls. We all learned that lesson the hard way.

Hillary Holley, live for us there. Thank you so much. Appreciate you coming on the program.

All right. Still to come, vowing retaliation for deadly attacks across Lebanon. What a counter attack by Hezbollah might look like, just ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ASHER: All right. Welcome back to ONE WORLD. I'm Zain Asher.

More now on our top story. The Israeli military is striking Lebanon after two days of deadly attacks. Israel says its top commander has approved

plans for the northern arena. This comes as fears grow of an escalation in cross-border tensions with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

[12:35:06]

The militant group's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, spoke a short time ago after the twin attacks on electronic devices in Lebanon that killed dozens and

injured thousands. Nasrallah calls the attacks massacres and says, Israel crossed a red line.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HASSAN NASRALLAH, HEZBOLLAH LEADER (through translation): Explosions happened in homes, cars, public roads, where many Lebanese civilians, women

and children were present. Even if they wanted to target Hezbollah men and fighters, they were targeting everyone around them.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ASHER: More now after Hezbollah vowed retribution. The Iranian-backed group says, Israel will receive a fair punishment in ways that are expected and

unexpected. For now, it's not clear what a counterattack would look like with many Hezbollah members wounded and key communication methods

compromised at the same time.

Hezbollah is believed to be the most heavily armed non-state group in the world. The stockpile is estimated at around 150,000 missiles. They recently

demonstrated it has the capabilities to fly drones over Israel, releasing a video that showed military and civilian locations in several Israeli

cities. But does it have the money to back up a large-scale attack on Israel?

Time now for The Exchange. And here to discuss all of this is Seth Jones. Seth is the Director of International Security Program at the Center for

Strategic and International Studies. Seth, thank you so much for being with us.

Before I get your take on possible Hezbollah responses, I do want to get your reaction to the speech that Hassan Nasrallah made today. Your

thoughts.

SETH JONES, DIRECTOR OF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY PROGRAM, CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES: Well, I think the speech was directed

at least two audiences. One is his domestic audience, including Hezbollah members. It was essentially called for and to respond to Israeli attacks

and to fortify the base.

It was also, I think, directed at the Israelis to prepare for what was likely to be an inevitable response in some fashion.

So I think he had multiple audiences, but it was a pretty firm response. And I think after very limited Hezbollah reactions after the Israeli

assassination of Fuad Shukr that they are likely -- Hezbollah is likely to respond this time.

ASHER: Right. And I would have said on Tuesday they were likely to respond, but maybe Hassan Nasrallah could have gotten out of a harsh response. But

with two days of attacks back to back, Tuesday and Wednesday, he has no other choice but to respond.

But in terms of options, how he goes about retaliating at this point in time, what are your thoughts on the possible different scenarios here?

JONES: Well, I think there are at least three buckets that we're looking at. One is a response outside of the region. Hezbollah has a global

presence. It has the ability to conduct attacks against Israeli embassies, Israelis, Jews, Jewish cultural centers in Latin America, in Africa, in

Europe, the Middle East, Asia, a number of places. And it's done that. It's conducted attacks in those areas.

So one is somewhere other than just the region. A second, as your story noted, Hezbollah has the capacity to strike directly back at Israel with

standoff weapons. It has 150, by our count, upwards of 200,000 standoff weapons, some guided, some unguided, some ballistic missiles.

And then third is, it certainly could work with allies and partners in the region, the Houthis in Yemen, some of the popular mobilization forces in

Iraq, and some of the Iranian-trained Shia militias in Syria to all those strike back.

These three buckets are not mutually exclusive, but I think Hezbollah has a couple of different options on the table.

ASHER: It's tricky though, because, you know, they can't overreact, right? Because obviously anything they do, Israel is going to strike them back.

You talked about Hezbollah's huge arsenal. While that is true, they've also lost hundreds of fighters, if not more, over the past year since the

October 7th war started.

And on top of that, they've suffered severe damage to their infrastructure. Now you have what happened this week that, you know, completely dismantled

their communication network.

So in terms of how they respond, obviously, whatever they do, Israel is going to target them back. So, what do they risk here?

JONES: Well, one thing they risk is all out war. And we've seen what has happened in Gaza after October 7th. Lebanon, including Beirut, would suffer

or has the potential to suffer extraordinary damage. We've already seen today Israeli fixed-wing aircraft fighter jets flying over Beirut and into

Lebanon.

[12:40:03]

The Israelis have fifth-generation U.S. F-35s. They've got very advanced weapons. So if this war escalates and there is a full-scale war, so Israeli

boots on the ground, strikes from aircraft and others, Lebanon is in grave danger of having chunks of its infrastructure destroyed.

So the challenge for Hezbollah is to respond in a way that sort of satisfies its base, but without resorting to full-scale war.

ASHER: And that's the last thing that, I mean, anyone, I mean, especially the U.S., the U.S. has been sending envoys to Lebanon to avoid this kind of

thing, to avoid any kind of escalation between the Israelis and Hezbollah. We've seen Amos Hochstein travel to the region multiple times. But what

have those efforts actually amounted to?

JONES: Well, they haven't been successful yet in reaching a deal. I mean, what the Israelis are looking for is for Hezbollah to abide by U.N.

Security Council Resolution 1701, so to push essentially Hezbollah fighters north from the blue line along the Lebanese-Israeli border and up towards

the Litani River and not to fire against Israel. Israel wants to resettle its internally displaced people up in the north.

So this is what both U.S. and French negotiators have been trying to do is resolve diplomatically what the Israelis are trying to do with Hezbollah,

so broker some kind of a settlement and has not succeeded.

I mean, it has succeeded in preventing full-scale war, but it clearly is not succeeded in achieving any kind of an agreement about where to position

Hezbollah forces something that would be suitable either to Hezbollah or -- to Hezbollah and Israel right now. No successful settlements in Gaza and

nothing right now on the northern border.

ASHER: You mentioned the tens of thousands of Israelis who have been displaced from Northern Israel because of the back and forth we're seeing

between the IDF and Hezbollah that's been taking place since October 7th.

Israel has said that one of their main goals now is to get those people, those Israelis, back to their homes and settle them back into their homes

in the north. I mean, can you see that happening anytime soon? Is this really the right way for Israel to go about seeing that through?

JONES: Well, I think what the Israelis are trying to do is to essentially coerce Hezbollah into a settlement, into agreement to do that. I don't know

that it's going to have that effect.

I mean, I think the concern here is that it's going to actually continue to escalate this conflict. And Israel, I think, it's going to have a hard time

through these kinds of actions, achieving its objectives, and which does raise the prospect then of, will it have to put boots on the ground in

Southern Lebanon, which will be a huge risk?

But we've already seen the 98th Division of the Israelis, paratroopers move up to the northern border. So we're now starting to see movement of ground

forces for something that could happen.

ASHER: Another war is the last thing that Lebanon needs. I mean, especially when you think about how much its economy has suffered, obviously the port

attack that we saw -- or the port explosion, rather, that we saw in 2020. And, of course, the civil war that caused it so much grief several decades

ago.

All right. Seth Jones, live for us there. Thank you so much. We'll be right back with more.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:45:12]

ASHER: All right. With any weeks to go before election day in the U.S., the latest polls show the race is very much neck and neck. So we've been

talking directly to voters.

Earlier this month, some supporters of Donald Trump held a MAGA boat parade at Florida's Panama City Beach. CNN's Elle Reeve went to meet them.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DARLENA IBANEZ, TRUMP SUPPORTER: We're at the MAGA Boat Parade at Shell Island, which I've never been to. So this is my first time coming. We were

in the middle of the parade following the lead boat well decorated with all the flags.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Fight, fight, fight.

MACE: There's a contest who could be the most Trumpian, and I want to win first place.

ALICIA BADGER, TRUMP SUPPORTER: It's a weed eater motor. It's a 21- horsepower. It makes a very frozen mudslide quick.

IBANEZ: Trump is pro-America. He loves America, for one. I love America. I served this country. I love America. We're from the same place in Queens,

New York. So that's my home.

JOE HARNER, TRUMP SUPPORTER: I live in Latitude Margaritaville.

ELLE REEVE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: What's your most important issue?

HARNER: The economy, getting the interest rates down, getting it where we can afford to live in America. Right now, it's too expensive.

REEVE: OK. Now, let me maybe ask like a slightly impolite question. But, you know, if you can afford a boat, you're not hurting so bad, right?

Because a boat costs a lot of money and it is a lot of upkeep.

HARNER: Listen, nobody gave me shit. I earned everything that I've got. I'm retired military, retired power plant, and I am successful and retired and

with boats, jet skis because I did it right. And everybody has that chance. Whether they choose or not, that's up to them.

REEVE: I would never try to take anything away from you in that way. But what I'm asking is, groceries are probably a smaller part of your budget

than say, you know, someone who is like a little worse off.

I think it's interesting that people who are a little bit more comfortable are still so concerned about the economy. Do you see what I'm saying?

HARNER: Because I want my money to go further. I want inflation to go down. I want interest rates go back down. I want all that. But that covers

everybody in the economy, not just me, not just the poor, not just the rich. It covers everybody.

REEVE: Now, something I've heard from some people, tell me if this applies to you, is like they are worried their kids aren't able to afford a house

or a car.

HARNER: Well, I trained my kids and taught my kids properly. They have great educations and they're both successful in their careers. Actually,

they're doing better than me.

REEVE (voice-over): Another woman told us that she had a good retirement, but she is worried about others who are having a hard time with higher

prices.

Whether they are locals or on vacation, everyone we spoke to at the boat parade was in a good mood. But underneath, there was anger about

immigration.

MARY ZAHASKY, TRUMP SUPPORTER: We need to secure our border. We need to do it right. And I like letting people in the right way.

REEVE: Can you give me some specifics on that? Like, how do you see immigration affecting you and your life in Texas?

MARY PROCTOR, TRUMP SUPPORTER: So I'm recently retired, but I was in the multi-family business which was managing and owning apartments. And I see

the effects of illegal immigration at my properties.

REEVE: So, you're telling me there have been incidents at your apartment building that you've had to call the cops and talk about it?

PROCTOR: Oh, yes. Oh, yes. So, I've seen it firsthand.

REEVE (voice-over): Most said Trump didn't do well at the presidential debate, though they didn't think it was his fault.

And while they were ambivalent about his false claim that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio are eating pets, they tended to defend

Trump for saying it.

DIANE CHUDOBA, TRUMP SUPPORTER: No, I'm not saying they're eating cats and dogs. I think that's a little cuckoo, but they do have a different belief

system. They're polite, they're nice, they're not hurting anything or anybody, but it's just -- I can see the change in the demographics and not

every town can absorb a big influx of population.

[12:50:07]

JASON MORGAN, TRUMP SUPPORTER: Do I believe that actually happened or not? I have no evidence of it. Do I doubt it? I don't know. I can't say -- I

can't say thumbs up or thumbs down.

REEVE: Do you think it shows good judgment on Trump's part to talk just about it if it's not confirmed?

MORGAN: I think it shows good judgment for every one of us on every side to look into it. I dare all of us to investigate it. And I live there, so I

will.

REEVE: Well, the police said they don't have any record of it and the city manager says they don't have a record of it, and the governor has now said,

they're not --

MORGAN: Not my governor. My governor.

REEVE: (INAUDIBLE) do I?

MORGAN: No.

REEVE: Do I -- if I said something about it --

MORGAN: I don't believe you.

REEVE: You want me to look it up?

MORGAN: I'm happy to look it up all by myself.

REEVE: Oh, no. We'll just Google it, if I have service.

KYLE BROWN, TRUMP SUPPORTER: Google, that's (INAUDIBLE).

REEVE: OK. Ohio, DeWine, Haitian, cats. This is something that came up on the internet and the internet can be quite crazy sometimes. DeWine told CBS

News. DeWine says he trusts city officials who have said they do not -- they have not received any credible reports of such conduct.

Mayor Rue of Springfield says no, there's no truth in that. They have no evidence of that at all. So, I think we go with what the mayor says. He

knows the city, DeWine said.

MORGAN: Sure. That's a great way to pass the buck.

REEVE: You think Trump's going to win?

MORGAN: I do.

REEVE: What do you think?

BROWN: I think we will be in the middle of a civil war either way, don't matter who wins. Like he says, you stop polarizing on both sides.

Elle Reeve, CNN, Panama City Beach, Florida.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ASHER: London's mayor has announced a plan to ban all vehicles from a section of Oxford Street, one of the city's most famous and busiest

streets. The project now has the backing of the British Deputy Prime Minister as well.

CNN's Anna Stewart has the reaction from locals.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ANNA STEWART, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Imagine if Times Square had no cars. Well, that may soon happen here in London.

Welcome to the shopping hub of Oxford Street. This major intersection is where the Mayor of London would like to pedestrianize. But what do the

locals think?

Banning cars on Oxford Street, yes or no?

[12:55:01]

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No.

STEWART: That was a no.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Ban cars?

STEWART: Yes.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Actually, yes.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I don't like it so much because it's full of people and like it's quite busy.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think it's a great idea.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's going to affect all the businesses. Where would the buses and the cabs going to go? Terrible. Shocking.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Get the traffic out of the city completely.

STEWART (voice-over): It's not the first time the mayor has proposed this. Plans were blocked by Westminster City Council in 2018.

SADIQ KHAN, LONDON MAYOR: Well, the difference this time is I've got the support of central government. And that means if, God forbid, there was

opposition from the council, we'd have the powers to proceed with good plans.

STEWART: The mayor still needs to get the green light from government, but in two years this may all be car free.

Anna Stewart, CNN, London.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ASHER: All right. That does it for this hour of ONE WORLD. I'm Zain Asher. Appreciate you watching. "AMANPOUR" is up next. You're watching CNN.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[13:00:00]

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