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One World with Zain Asher
U.S. Stocks Fluctuate Wildly In Response To Trump's Trade War; Trump To Welcome Netanyahu To White House; "Hands Off" Protesters Across U.S. rally Against Trump; Global Markets Sink As Recession Fears Grow Over Trump's Trade War; Le Pen Tells Supporters She Will Fight Conviction; U.S. Revokes Visas In Dispute With South Sudan; Tariffs Turmoil Hits Global Fashion Industry; Rain Subsiding Across Central U.S., But Rivers Still Rising; Aired 12:00-1:00p ET
Aired April 07, 2025 - 12:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[12:00:09]
ZAIN ASHER, CNN ANCHOR: Goldman Sachs joins other banks in predicting a 45 percent chance of a recession here in the United States.
BIANNA GOLODRYGA, CNN ANCHOR: The second hour of ONE WORLD starts right now.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PETER NAVARRO, COUNSELOR TO THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We are going to have the biggest boom in the stock market we've ever seen under
the Trump policies.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The White House lies. They are all very concerned about what's taking place and looking for other alternatives.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GOLODRYGA: In a word volatile, up to the minute updates from Wall Street to Main Street, ahead.
ASHER: Also ahead, Marine Le Pen says she will follow in the footsteps of Martin Luther King, Jr. as she fights her embezzlement conviction. We'll
explain.
Plus.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SHELLIE SMITH, JAKE SMITH'S MOTHER: I know that there were angels protecting my little boy because they caught him.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GOLODRYGA: Miraculous recovery. A mother's warning for parents everywhere.
ASHER: And later, "SNL's" take, a well-deserved laugh. Much needed, by the way, a lot of us is on the way.
All right. Coming to you live from New York, I am Zain Asher.
GOLODRYGA: And I'm Bianna Golodryga. You are watching the second hour of ONE WORLD.
Volatility and whiplash on Wall Street amid deepening economic uncertainty and growing global anxiety.
ASHER: Yes. U.S. markets open deep in the red, once again, following Donald Trump's escalating trade war. But they have been fluctuating wildly for the
past several hours. Here's a look at where things stand right now.
The Dow down about 700 points or so. We actually saw it briefly in the green, up about 800 points at one point today. That was because of an
unfounded rumor. But now obviously solidly in the red. And it's been red arrows all day for European stocks as well after Asian markets closed down
sharply earlier.
But the president is showing no signs of retreating, urging Americans not to be, quote, weak or stupid and panic.
GOLODRYGA: And he's now threatening to impose new 50 percent tariffs on China following Beijing's retaliatory tariffs last week. The White House,
meantime, is downplaying the growing economic concerns.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
NAVARRO: The market will find a bottom. It will be soon. And from there, we're going to have a bullish boom.
SCOTT BESSENT, U.S. TREASURY SECRETARY: There doesn't have to be a recession. Who knows how the market is going to react in a day in a week.
HOWARD LUTNICK, U.S. COMMERCE SECRETARY: He needs to reset the power of the United States for America and reset it against all our allies and our
enemies alike.
KEVIN HASSETT, DIRECTOR WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL ECONOMIC COUNCIL: It's a strategy to create a gold age in America for the American worker. That's
his strategy.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GOLODRYGA: A strategy with no details. All these advisors seem to be talking past each other.
ASHER: Look at his face.
GOLODRYGA: CNN's Richard Quest --
ASHER: Had buried in his hands, literally.
[12:05:01]
GOLODRYGA: And it's only Monday. Richard.
RICHARD QUEST, CNN BUSINESS EDITOR-AT-LARGE: It doesn't have to be a -- it doesn't have to be a recession, says the U.S. Treasury Secretary. He's
right.
There doesn't have to be a recession. The only problem is economic circumstances have now been put in place that most Wall Street economists
of senior note say are likely to cause a recession.
Goldman and others now say it's up to 60 percent. By the way, can we go back to the Dow Jones actual chart of the day, please? Just go back to that
moment.
Now you see that green spike? That is where there was a rumor that the administration was going to pause by 90 days the tariffs. Well, it was just
a rumor and the market found it was a rumor and then promptly turned in the absolute opposite direction.
But now let's forget rumors. Now we have a fact. Donald Trump says he's going to increase by 50 percent the tariffs on China tomorrow because
they've had the temerity to retaliate with the 34 percent tit for tat that they did.
So you want to trade war? This is what it looks like. And you remember Scott Bessent's words? It doesn't have -- it doesn't have to be a
recession.
By the way, all the rest -- all the rest. Howard Lutnick's comments, the economic adviser's comments, Navarro's comments. That's all just hyperbole.
That's all just basically, it's going to be great. It's going to be marvelous. It's going to be fantastic. It's going to be wonderful. It's
going to boom. But this is the reality.
And at some point, ladies and gentlemen, at some point, there is so much disruption that the market simply can't take it. And jobs go, investment
stops, the recession happens.
GOLODRYGA: Let's not forget, Richard, that this is an administration that inherited a rather robust economy where we were seeing inflations continue
to go down, though not fast enough. We got a strong jobs report.
Obviously, that is backward looking. But to have administration officials, specifically Stephen Miller, go out on the airwaves this weekend and
justify these tariffs as a need for a global reset because this administration inherited a recession or near depression is outright
fabrication.
QUEST: Now it's lies. Simple. Let's just call it what it is. It's lies. It's not true.
The economy that Joe Biden handed over to Donald Trump was in fine fettle. Interest rates were coming down, not as fast as they'd like. Unemployment
was low. Growth was medium to strong, trend growth. The market was at record highs. It's quite simple. These are facts you cannot ignore.
These policies, and it's not just, by the way, the policy of this tariff trade, which is by far the worst. The immigration policy is now given cause
for concern about inflation because workers won't be available.
Companies are putting off decisions because they simply don't know the circumstance under which they will make.
Now, is Donald Trump right in his policy prescription? Let's just put the purpose of just my answer. Let's assume it's a leap of faith.
I -- you have to say it's a leap of faith that he is right, vis-A -vis, all the conventional wisdom that says this is going to be bad for the growth.
Now if I tell you don't drive with blinkers on or don't drive with a mat, you know, something over your eyes, you'd probably say it's not a good
idea. But somebody says try it. You take your choice.
GOLODRYGA: A leap of faith based on one man's convictions, right, which he's held for decades.
QUEST: Oh. But hang on. Hang on. He held these convictions back in the 1980s. The global schemes and the global trading environment is very
different to today than it was then. And it's not -- it's not the policy that's wrong.
You can read -- even Ngozi at the WTO says that the U.S. has legitimate concerns. It's the manufacture of the execution that's the -- that's the
difficulty. And the deeper this goes, the harder it's going to be to repair the damage. Simple as that.
GOLODRYGA: No doubt.
Richard Quest, thank you so much.
ASHER: Thank you, Richard.
All right. The next hour or so, Donald Trump is going to be welcoming the first foreign leader to visit the White House since he slapped tariffs on
pretty much the whole world.
I mean, no country, even an island of penguins not exempt from it at all. The Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu says the trade war will be high on the
agenda after the U.S. placed a 17 percent tariff on imports from Israel. The war against Hamas, also going to be a key issue as well.
Netanyahu says he's going to be discussing bringing the remaining hostages home and, quote, completing victory in Gaza. Kevin Liptak is on this story
for us.
[12:10:07]
So, Kevin, the nuclear threat from Iran, I'm sure, Netanyahu is going to bring that up too. Of course, what's happening in Gaza, trying to eliminate
Hamas.
But, of course, high on the agenda is going to be tariffs after the U.S. slapped a 17 percent tariff on Israel -- on Israeli imports into the United
States. What does Benjamin Netanyahu need to say to negotiate that?
KEVIN LIPTAK, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE REPORTER: Yes. And just to state the obvious, it's unusual that Netanyahu is coming to the White House to talk
about trade. I've covered a lot of meetings with Netanyahu here at the White House, and trade has never really come up in the previews or after
actions of these meetings.
And so it does just go to show how quickly Donald Trump is reshaping some of these alliances, including with leaders who he is very close with.
Yes. Netanyahu met last evening with Howard Lutnick, the Commerce Secretary, and Jamieson Greer, the American Trade Representative, to talk
about these tariffs that the president put in place last week.
The figure for Israel was 17 percent. And Netanyahu had, in fact, tried to preempt these tariffs by lifting Israel's own custom duties on the U.S.
before the president made his announcement, and it didn't seem to have any effect.
And I think how this meeting goes today could kind of set the stage for how other leaders try and approach this delicate trade negotiation with the
president.
And when it comes to Israel, the concessions on Netanyahu's part may not be economic. Of course, the war in Gaza has resumed the ceasefire that
President Trump took full credit for, has completely fallen apart.
And I think as the president looks ahead, he would very much like to see the fighting there come to an end, particularly as he prepares to head to
Saudi Arabia. Next month, he is looking for this grand normalization agreement between Riyadh and Israel. That would be a major accomplishment
of that trip, but it's not going to happen if Israel is continuing to bombard Gaza.
And so as the president is looking for concessions, and as Netanyahu is looking for a way to lift the tariffs, that could potentially be an area
for the two men to discuss. And so it will remain to be seen whether that happens today.
But this meeting will pose a good example, I think, for other leaders as they look to get the tariffs listed on their own countries going forward.
ASHER: All right. Kevin Liptak, live for us there. Thank you so much.
GOLODRYGA: Well, thousands of Americans turned out over the weekend to make their voices heard in protest. More than 1,400 Hands Off protests were held
at state capitals, federal buildings, and parks across the country.
ASHER: Organizers say they want to end what they call the billionaire power grab and rampant corruption of the government.
Democratic Representative Al Green of Texas spoke to demonstrators in the nation's capital and vowed to impeach President Trump.
GOLODRYGA: Here now, CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten on how voters are feeling about the current administration.
ASHER: Hi.
GOLODRYGA: Harry --
HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: Hi.
GOLODRYGA: -- we always love to see you and just walk us through the numbers, given the pictures that we saw over the weekend where tens of
thousands of people took to the streets in cities all over the country, protesting a myriad of policies.
ENTEN: I have a question before we begin. Do you think that Richard and I drink from the same water supply because I feel like our energies are on
similar levels?
ASHER: Very similar. Very similar.
GOLODRYGA: It's what happens when you talk to us. Maybe we're the culprits.
ENTEN: You finally found the common link, right? You found the common link.
Anyway, all right. Let's talk a little bit about these protests. And, you know, when I -- when I we came in -- when we came in to this
administration, right, you go back to January, there really just seemed like the democratic resistance was weak. It seemed like it felt defeated.
That is not the case anymore. And I think the number one way we can sort of see this is the interest online in the idea of protesting. We can look at
Google searches. And what do we see? We see that they're up, get this, 1,200 percent versus a year ago.
Of course, it peaked on Saturday. And the level that we're seeing now is very similar, if not exceeding, the level of folks who are looking for
protests or looking to protest as we saw in January of 2017 when Trump's first term began.
You know, I think of the movie Frankenstein, right? Of course, the doctor was Frankenstein, not the monster. It was Frankenstein's monster. And he
said, it's alive. It's alive. That is what is going on right now with the democratic protests or the protests against Donald Trump.
And it's not just in the Google data. It's in the polling data as well. Let's take a look here, right? We'll take a look at those who strongly
disapprove of the job that Donald Trump is doing as president. That is those who are vigorously against him.
You know, on the eve of the 2018 midterms where the Democrats, of course, got a neck gain of 40 seats in the House and took back control of the House
of Representatives, it was 42 percent who strongly disapproved of the job that Donald Trump was doing.
[12:15:04]
Look at where we are now in April of 2025. You know, there's that meme online. They look the same to me. They look pretty gosh darn the same to
me. Forty-three percent now versus 42 percent back then.
Obviously, we are a year and a half away until the midterm elections. But right now, it seems to me that that strongly disapproved, that resistance
to Donald Trump is absolutely in the polling data.
Now we look to Google searches, right? We looked at the polling data. But I am a big fan of MTV. I am a big fan of the Real World. And let's take a
look at the real world. Special elections. We spoke about them last week, right? Special House elections.
How's the average Democrat doing compared to the previous presidential candidate in the democratic side?
In April of 2017, they were doing 18 points better than Hillary Clinton did. Look at where they are now. Again, the meme. It looks the same to me.
It's the same picture. Plus 19 points.
So you just look at all the different data points, my dear friends, and you just see that the resistance to Donald Trump seems to be taking off in
Google, in strongly disapproving the polling, and in the real world.
And I guess my question I'll leave you two fine ladies with this, did you actually watch the Real World on MTV?
GOLODRYGA: I was going to ask you what your favorite season was.
ASHER: You know, I didn't.
ENTEN: Oh.
GOLODRYGA: I did. I watched. Yes. New York and San Francisco were my two favorites.
ENTEN: Ooh. Zain, how about you? Do you have an answer for this?
ASHER: You know what? They did have it in the U.K. And it was very popular. But I never -- you know, I like more highbrow things, Harry, sorry.
ENTEN: Get, get, get, get, get.
GOLODRYGA: She's loving it with us, you know.
ENTEN: You know, you got some -- I'll just leave you on this little piece of data. I actually went to school with a guy named Alik Alfus, who was
actually Made in Chelsea, which was a big reality show --
ASHER: Oh, yes.
ENTEN: -- in the U.K. Did you ever watch --
ASHER: Yes. Big.
ENTEN: -- that one, Zain?
ASHER: You know, by the time that hit the air, I was already living in the U.S. So I didn't. I keep on missing these.
GOLODRYGA: But Zain gets to say --
ENTEN: I'm done.
GOLODRYGA: -- she works with Harry Enten. So that's her claim to fame. That is mine, Harry.
ENTEN: All right. I'll see you guys tomorrow, hopefully, and we can discuss things in the makeup room.
ASHER: I'm more of a -- you know what, I'm more of a "White Lotus" kind of girl. And they had the season finale, and I'm watching it tonight. Do not
tell them.
ENTEN: OK. I won't ruin it. I won't ruin it.
ASHER: Do not tell me what happened.
GOLODRYGA: On that, we can unite. Bye, Harry.
ENTEN: Bye.
GOLODRYGA: Oh, my gosh, we have to bring in David Sanger.
ASHER: I know. It's such a hard pivot to be suddenly so serious.
All right. Let's bring in -- he's laughing, that's good. Not -- there's not that much luck to laugh about this morning.
GOLODRYGA: What's your favorite "Real World" season, David?
ASHER: David Sanger, thank you so much --
DAVID SANGER, CNN POLITICAL AND NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: Hey, I'm willing to do reality TV, but I'm several episodes behind on "White Lotus," so
don't ruin it for me. OK?
ASHER: No, no, no, no, no. I would never.
I do want to start by talking about this sort of tit for tat trade war between the U.S. and China. Obviously, a lot of threats in the air between
both countries.
Donald Trump now threatening to slap an additional 50 percent tariff on China, if China does not pull back its 34 percent tariff hike. Just explain
to us the potential consequences and which economy stands to lose more from this escalating trade war.
SANGER: Well, it's hard to know which is going to lose more, but it's easy to tell you which consumers will lose more. And that's us, right? I mean,
we consume in the United States and throughout the West huge amounts of Chinese goods for everyday life.
Think about just to take the most basic example, an iPhone, which now markets at $1,100 for the newest models of them. And if you ended up doing
the 50 percent hike on components, you're probably adding another $500 or so to that.
And, of course, there's everything you're looking at, at Walmart and much of what you're looking at on Amazon. So these would flow through.
What really sort of struck me about President Trump's Truth Social posting, which was just less than an hour ago, was if you know much about the
Chinese structure and about Xi Jinping, the idea of setting him a deadline to back down in 24 hours, he's not going to do that. He's not going to end
up looking weaker to Donald Trump.
And it's just not in the DNA of the Chinese leadership right now because he will think that will transfer to the confrontation over Taiwan or something
else. So I don't think the ultimatum strategy is likely to work.
GOLODRYGA: And, David, we had Rahm Emanuel on last week and he said, the irony here is here's a president who campaigned on ending all wars and he's
starting one. And he said, no, it's not a combat war involving F-16s or anything like that, but it's a trade war.
And if you think about one of the purposes that free trade or any type of trade relations and trade alliances serves is to hopefully avoid physical
wars as well.
[12:20:04]
And you have a president now who has fired his U.S. cybersecurity chief, cyber command chief, because of a conspiracy theorist apparently reportedly
coming to the White House and suggesting he's not loyal.
You have a president who continues to conflate friend and foe and in saying that even our friends are treating us worse than our foes. Just give us a
sense of where that puts us in terms of security risks here in the United States.
SANGER: Sure. Well, first of all, I mean just any reading of the history of the past century is trade conflict can frequently spill into military
conflict. We've seen that happen time and time again. It was the source of the war of 1812 with Britain, right? But you also saw elements of that in
World War I and so forth.
Separate and apart from the history lesson here, the conflation of our adversaries with our allies is bound to come back and haunt the United
States, I think. You know, the -- what is our greatest military strength as a country beyond our nuclear weapons, which you can't really go use? And
the answer is, it's our alliance system.
Who is it that we have tariffed heavily in the course of this? Japan and South Korea who are linchpins of the effort to contain Chinese expansion to
say nothing of North Korea. Why poison that relationship? I don't know.
And if the president turned around and said, well, this is about trade, not about politics, go explain what we heard over the weekend about why it was
that he did not put any tariff penalties on Russia, because we're in the middle of a negotiation for peace in Ukraine. By the way, there are tariffs
that were put on Ukraine.
So, obviously, politics has entered into the setting of these tariffs and yet, not with our main allies in Europe or Asia.
ASHER: All right. David Sanger, live for us there. Thank you.
GOLODRYGA: Thanks, David.
Well, French far right leader, Marina Le Pen, is vowing to battle on after being found guilty of embezzling E.U. funds.
ASHER: Yes. She's now been banned from running for office for five years. Despite this, she's likening herself to Martin Luther King Jr., telling
supporters on Sunday that she wants a peaceful and democratic fight. Melissa Bell reports.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MELISSA BELL, CNN PARIS CORRESPONDENT: It was a very fired up Marine Le Pen who spoke to her supporters here on Paris' Left Bank in protest at the
five-year ban seen handed down in the wake of a trial in which she was found guilty of embezzling nearly $5 million over the course of several
years.
Several members of her party condemned with her. The sentence, which includes two years of suspended sentence and two years under house arrest,
also prevents her from standing. And that, of course, means that she is ineligible to stand in 2027, which was her great hope for finally winning
the presidency.
Still, there will now be an appeal and the possibility that a court finds in her favor. This some of the outrage being expressed by her supporters.
The crowds were not huge here at the Place Vauban, Central Paris, but then again, Paris has never been a bastion of National Rally support. They're
much more popular outside of the French capital.
We heard from Marine Le Pen. We also heard from the president of the National Rally, Jordan Bardella, who may be the future hope of the party
should she not be able to stand. Both spoke of a political manhunt ran by the left.
There are also this Sunday in Paris, two other demonstrations, one being held by the far left, the other by the center, a reminder of how this
judicial earthquake of the start of the week has really redrawn the political map and leads to a period of huge political and judicial
uncertainty as we look ahead to the 2027 presidential election.
Melissa Bell, CNN, Paris.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ASHER: All right. Still to come, how a college basketball star could be the next victim of Donald Trump's deportation push.
GOLODRYGA: Plus, deadly rain across parts of the U.S. is subsiding but rivers are still rising and the threat from floods is increasing.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
(CROWD CHEERING)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
[12:25:07]
GOLODRYGA: That was Duke University basketball star, Khaman Maluach, dunking, the ball Saturday night in the semifinals of the NCAA basketball
tournament. The 19-year-old is likely to be a high draft pick in the NBA draft, but his future in the U.S. is very uncertain right now.
ASHER: Yes. He's from the war torn South Sudan. And just hours before Saturday's game, the U.S. announced that all Sudanese, South Sudanese
rather, visas were being revoked.
It means he and other South Sudanese students like him could be deported at any moment. It's all part of a pressure campaign from the Trump
administration to force South Sudan to take back migrants that the U.S. want to deport.
CNN's Kylie Atwood is at the State Department. She has more on this.
So just in terms of the U.S. not just revoking all visas to South Sudanese passport holders, but actually stopping the issuance of new visas to people
from South Sudan, you've got to think that this is a country that has suffered so much, both in terms of a civil war since 2011 and then also the
massive sort of devastating humanitarian crises that this country has faced.
Just explain to us what the impact will be on the people of South Sudan, knowing that there's no option at this point in time to go to the United
States if they need to.
KYLIE ATWOOD, CNN U.S. SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Well, it's hard to know what the impact will be at this exact moment because we really don't know when
this policy proclamation that the Trump administration has made here is actually going to go into effect, right?
So as we heard over the weekend from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the United States is going to be suspending all visas of South Sudanese visa
holders who are currently in the United States, and as you guys were saying, also suspending any of those new visa issuances that are going to
occur.
Any of those appointments that were on the books have now been canceled according to what the Secretary of State said over the weekend. And he said
in his statement that the transitional government needs to quote, stop taking advantage of the United States and accept back its citizens in a
timely manner.
When they want to -- when the United States wants to repatriate someone back to South Sudan, the transitional government has to work with them to
do that.
According to the Deputy Secretary of State, there is one South Sudanese in the United States who has created this issue, who has not been able to be
repatriated. South Sudan has not accepted that person back. We don't know the details of this case, so it's really hard to explain to how we really
got here just because we don't know exactly what that situation is.
But the administration has left the door open to changing this policy proclamation with the Secretary of State saying we'll be prepared to review
these situations in South Sudan when South Sudan is in full cooperation with the United States.
But fundamentally, we'll watch and see where this goes, where this actually impacts people. Because as you said, over the weekend, there was that Duke
basketball player who does have a South Sudanese visa, that's Khaman Maluach. He actually played in that basketball game on Saturday night after
the secretary of state said that all South Sudanese visa holders would now no longer have those visas.
[12:30:17]
So that is one of the more public cases that could be actually impacted here that we're watching. But, of course, there are presumably thousands of
people who are on edge to see where this goes because it could impact their day-to-day lives here in the United States or their plans, hopefully to
come to the U.S. with those visas.
ASHER: Yes, it's unfortunate. All right. Kylie Atwood at the State Department, thank you.
GOLODRYGA: Welcome back, Kylie. By the way, from maternity leave. It's good to see you --
ASHER: Good to see you.
GOLODRYGA: -- first time here on our show. Congratulations again on the baby.
All right. And just ahead for us, the U.S. imports almost all of its shoes and clothing, and much of it is made in Asia. We'll talk to an expert about
how tariffs are hitting the global fashion industry.
Also ahead.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
S. SMITH: He was able to sit up and tell me his name, his age, and everything like nothing happened.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ASHER: A U.S. family says they're thankful their son is alive. Incredible story later on this hour.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
GOLODRYGA: All right. Welcome back to ONE WORLD. I'm Bianna Golodryga.
ASHER: And I'm Zain Asher.
The Trump administration's tariffs are a hammer blow to the global fashion industry. Just about every fashion item sold in the U.S. will be hit with
additional duties. That's because the U.S. imports more than 90 percent of its clothing and about 99 percent of its shoes.
[12:35:09]
GOLODRYGA: Yes. The U.S. Fashion Industry Association says the president's action will particularly affect American fashion brands and retailers.
And don't forget some of those brands do most of their manufacturing in Asia. The American Apparel and Footwear Association says GAP, Lululemon,
and Nike are among the companies that have most of their clothing made by Asian companies.
ASHER: And Asia is getting hit hard. Goods from Vietnam, the second biggest apparel exporter to the U.S., after China, will be subject to a 46 percent
tariff. For Cambodia, it's 49 percent.
GOLODRYGA: Time now for The Exchange. We want to paint a portrait of the real life impact of this tariff turmoil.
To do that, we're joined by Josh Lipsky. He's the senior director of the GeoEconomics Center at the Atlantic Council think tank. And he is live from
Washington, D.C. Josh, thanks for joining the program.
So as we have been reporting over the last few weeks, U.S. manufacturing, U.S. companies, retailers, really did the right thing after they were being
warned and advised by the United States to move their manufacturing from China to other countries in Asia, which they did, Cambodia, Vietnam, et
cetera.
And here they are bearing the brunt of this trade war that is only growing with these massive trade levies imposed on a number of these countries,
where they moved their manufacturing. And what was interesting today from Peter Navarro this morning, he suggested that this wouldn't all end, and
the U.S. wouldn't be satisfied if they just reduced their tariffs on America to zero.
But what he said is they need to lower non-tariff barriers, which raises the question of what can these countries do. And in the meantime, what kind
of limbo does it put these companies, these U.S. companies in?
JOSH LIPSKY, SENIOR DIRECTOR, ATLANTIC COUNCIL'S GEOECONOMICS CENTER: Well, you're exactly right. And thanks for having me today.
One of the lessons the Trump administration took from the first trade wars in 2018, 2019, the U.S. China trade wars, was that transshipment was a
problem. China moving its production overseas to countries in the region. And that's one of the reasons why Asia was hit particularly hard with these
reciprocal tariffs, specifically to try to address the transshipment issue.
But what it's done in return is put a massive shock across all Asian economies and basically turned on its head the import-export model of the
fashion industry. And what we've been saying at the Atlanta Council is everything from AirPods to Air Jordans are now at risk and are likely going
to be more expensive, not in the months ahead, but in the weeks ahead.
ASHER: What do you predict, just in terms of a recession here in the United States? Obviously, we're seeing the big banks. Some are saying 45 percent
chance. Some are saying up to 60 percent chance. What's your take on the likelihood of a recession at this point in time based on this?
LIPSKY: It's so hard to say because it's moving in real time. The bottom line is that there's a much higher risk of recession than there was a week
ago and a much higher risk than there was a month ago. So we're on a bad trend line --
ASHER: OK. OK.
LIPSKY: -- is how I would describe it. So where it is 50, 60, we don't know. But it really depends on whether the president follows through on
April 9th, and whether we see some kind of negotiation that's what all of Wall Street is looking for. You saw the market reaction earlier today when
they got these false signs of hope that there might be a temporary pause on the reciprocal tariffs.
But the real question and the question that was asked earlier is, what should countries do about it? And I think this is what's causing so much
confusion. We've been talking to embassies around the world over the weekend, and they're not sure what the Trump administration wants in terms
of negotiation.
Because if the reciprocal tariff rates, quote unquote, are based off bilateral trade deficit, that's not something a country can just change
overnight. It also changes by quarter and by year. So it's a question of whether the rates would change.
And we don't understand, should they be dropping non-tariff barriers? Should there be another forming negotiation? And I don't think they have a
clear answer from the White House, and that's what's causing so much confusion right now and fear that this will happen in 48 hours from now.
GOLODRYGA: And just how these numbers were calculated and computed, I think also raises a lot of concern among those who have done similar work in the
past. It's one thing to question trade policy, and say this is not the right policy to address the issue at hand.
But it's quite another thing when it seems like those making the policy don't even understand how this works. And there does seem to be this notion
that they feel that having a trade, a balanced trade with every country is what we're looking for. And that's just not logical, correct?
LIPSKY: Yes. There's a real question here of what the end goal is. And we saw Secretary Lutnick and other Trump administration officials come out
this weekend and say it's to restore manufacturing in the U.S., but actually restore manufacturing and clothing and fashion in apparel and
sneakers that we have never heard before should be a goal of U.S. strategy coming back, nor is that realistic.
[12:40:08]
Imagine what actual zero bilateral trade deficit means. It means a deep recession, if not worse in the United States to lower that kind of demand.
They would create bilateral zero. It's essentially impossible, nor would we ever wanna pay the price here for that to happen.
So I think there's a lot of misunderstanding of what is the administration's end goal that they're working toward right now and
countries are trying to sort that out.
And I don't think it's actually bilateral trade at zero, but you look at their formula and you have to say to yourself, if you're going to launch a
global trade war, you should have had a better plan in place.
ASHER: Yes. And when you think about what some of the -- some members of the administration have come out and said about this particular trade war,
they've pointed to President Trump's first term and said, look, we imposed tariffs during the first term, it wasn't that bad, everyone's exaggerating
how bad it's going to be this time.
But obviously it was a very different landscape in climate back then eight years ago, because the size of the tariffs, the fact that the tariffs were
specific and targeted on certain goods and certain countries, is very different from what President Trump is talking about this time around.
We're talking about tariffs on all countries across the entire world. And even the tariffs that are on specific nations are that much higher.
Plus, you have the fact that inflation is already higher than it was back then. There are so many different factors involved, that means it's going
to be that much worse this time around.
LIPSKY: Yes, exactly. To compare tariffs on washing machines from China to a global trade war, and then an effective tariff rate of over 70 percent
across a range of Chinese goods, is not even apples and oranges, it's not even in the same ballpark.
Now, does that mean it's going to get passed through one per one? We're going to see a 50 percent increase on some of these issues, probably not.
There's competition issues. There's reasons why you wouldn't actually pass through all of it, but prices are going to be higher.
And something else the administration did this time, they didn't do it last time, and it really affects the fashion industry, is the de minimis
exception. So everything under $800 used to be exempt from tariffs, no longer, at least as of May, if they follow through with that, that's really
going to affect some of these low end retailers.
So all of this means there's going to be more price pressures, and exactly as you said, at a time everyone in the United States, and everyone around
the world is much more conscious of price pressures and inflation because of what we've just lived through over the past four years.
GOLODRYGA: Yes. And America has become the growth engine of the world for decades, as we've seen it consume more goods than actually produce. And it
seems like this administration is trying to turn that on a dime within, you know, the next few months, which every expert, including yourself, would
say that's just not really feasible.
Josh Lipsky, senior director of the GeoEconomic Center at The Atlantic Council. Very busy times for you and for all of us. Thank you so much.
ASHER: Thank you.
All right. Still to come, evacuation orders and water rescues are underway in Kentucky, after days of rain and violence storms pummeled this American
state and others. Our weather team is following the latest developments.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[12:45:40]
GOLODRYGA: In the Democratic Republic of Congo, the season's first major storm has turned deadly. Health officials in capital of Kinshasa say about
30 people have died as a result of the flooding.
ASHER: Yes. You can see here the rising waters that have rushed away cars and filled entire streets. Even homes have been swept away while others are
without power and access to clean water.
Kinshasa's governor says the city's water infrastructure has been affected, but access will be reinstated in the coming days.
GOLODRYGA: Well, heavy rain and storms that have battered central U.S. and caused so much devastation are starting to subside, but officials warn that
the danger from flooding remains high.
ASHER: Yes. In Kentucky, evacuation orders and water rescues are underway. And officials across the region are warning people to keep their guard up
as rain-swollen rivers continue to rise. Days of storms that have also produced tornadoes have killed at least 19 people across seven states.
CNN's meteorologist Derek Van Dam joins us live now from Atlanta. I mean, Derek, some of these pictures are unbelievable, really remarkable stuff.
And a lot of people are saying that this is a slow-moving disaster. Walk us through that.
DEREK VAN DAM, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Yes. That is the best way to describe it, Zain and Bianna. That is the nature of these flood events. A lot of times
the full scope of the destruction is not realized for several days on since the heavy rain is actually falling. And that is because the water has to
seek its own level, right? It goes into the smaller streams and tributaries before it enters into the larger rivers and makes them swollen and over top
their banks.
Now this is just one example of communities being cut off here. This is out of Frankfurt and Monterey, Kentucky. We're talking about the northern and
western portions of the state of Kentucky. Significant river flooding because of the heavy rain. This is impacted buildings, businesses, homes.
And there's a large swath of heavy rain that has fallen from the sky. In fact, we did a measurement just over a thousand kilometers of a significant
area of rain that fell which is demarked by this shading of red. And the hot pink, of course, being the highest totals here. There's the state of
Kentucky. There's Western Tennessee, Missouri and Arkansas right there. That's some of the heaviest hit areas.
And all in all, we have 18 reported river gauges that are reporting major flood stations. Those are indicating with that shading of purple there.
There's National Weather Service river gauges on all those particular locations.
Some locations, including this one, along the Obion River, near Obion, Tennessee, is actually setting a record.
So there are areas right now to put this into perspective that have never flooded and are currently flooding now. So this new record value starting
to inundate some of local surrounding areas.
Look at the rainfall totals. This is impressive. So we're going back since the middle of last week, but right through the weekend where we saw
rainfall totals in excess of a foot, that is significant. It is all thanks to this storm system that continues to slowly march eastward. There's been
some severe weather across the southern flank of the storm.
But the good news is the hardest hit areas from the flooding and the days of tornadoes last week has moved on. So we're going to dry out, but this is
that slow moving disaster. It will take days if not weeks for the water to fully subside.
Let's just hope that we don't have any additional rainstorms to come in the future here. There's a storm moving off the East Coast.
Zain and Bianna, it has been difficult, particularly across the state of Kentucky.
GOLODRYGA: And our thoughts are with those residents there.
Derek Van Dam, thank you so much.
ASHER: Thank you.
GOLODRYGA: Well, a family in Utah is sharing a terrifying trampoline incident with us in the hope that it will save others.
ASHER: Yes. As KSL reporter, Emma Benson, explains the Smith family says they're lucky their young son is alive after a huge wind gust threw him off
a trampoline.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
S. SMITH: And it happened so fast without any warning.
EMMA BENSON, KSL REPORTER (voice-over): Well, visiting relatives in Saint George this week, 8-year-old Jake was jumping on the tramp.
S. SMITH: It was a beautiful day, blue skies.
BENSON (voice-over): When all of a sudden a wind burst picked up the trampoline, causing it to go flying 20 feet in the air.
JAKE SMITH, 8-YEAR-OLD BOY THROWN OFF IN A TRAMPOLINE: Like an airplane with no roof.
BENSON (voice-over): With Jake on it.
S. SMITH: My little boy flew up over two center block walls and came curved around and then landed in the street.
BENSON (voice-over): Jake's mom, Shellie, ran over to him in terror, saying he immediately sat up and asked her if it was a dream.
[12:50:05]
S. SMITH: And I said, no, son, this wasn't a dream. This was very real. He was able to sit up and tell me his name, his age, and everything like
nothing happened.
BENSON (voice-over): Jake got checked out at the hospital, but ultimately walked away with just minor scratches and a slight concussion.
S. SMITH: The trauma department was like, you don't usually get this outcome in situations like this.
BENSON (voice-over): Shellie and her husband, Brian, are hoping their story will serve as a warning to other families to make sure trampolines are
securely mounted --
BRIAN SMITH, FATHER OF JAKE SMITH: Strap them down, they're just like giant kites.
BENSON (voice-over): -- if they don't want any parent experiencing what they went through.
S. SMITH: You have a trampoline, like get it bolted to the ground because it can happen in seconds.
BENSON (voice-over): Jake also saying he's going to be cautious of the next trampoline he gets on.
J. SMITH: I'm going to say, is yours bolted down?
BENSON (voice-over): The Smith family, grateful to still have their son sitting next to them.
S. SMITH: I know that there were angels protecting my little boy because they caught him. The fact that he's here with me today is a complete
miracle.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ASHER: All right. President Donald Trump's tariffs have everyone talking. Here in New York, over the weekend, of course, "SNL" do not shy away from
that one.
GOLODRYGA: No. The show's cold open, comedian James Austin Johnson reenacted Trump's so-called Liberation Day announcement. But with some
notable changes. Here are some of the highlights.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JAMES AUSTIN JOHNSON, AMERICAN COMEDIAN AND ACTOR: I know what the numbers mean, OK? They mean, we're going to make America wealthy again. MAWA. MAWA.
More.
You know, you're going to check your stock portfolio in a couple of days and think, I'm almost too wealthy. We're doing MAWA!
But before that, we're going to do MAGDA. MAGDA. Make America Great Depression Again.
You know, the suppression is going to be so great. We'll be the ones eating the cats and the dogs. That's going to be fun.
We've got to do these sales folks. We have to. No idea why, but we have to do it. And now it's time for the really big piece of cardboard.
Here we go. This is a cheesecake factory menu now. This is for the luncheon after, OK? I'm getting bang bang tacos.
Look at it, it's beautiful. We spent so much time and, frankly, millions of dollars on this piece of cardboard.
[12:55:01]
We need to send a message to countries who have been ripping us off, like South Africa. South Africa puts a 60 percent tariff on everything we send
them. And they've never even sent us one good thing.
MIKE MYERS, CANADIAN COMEDIAN AND ACTOR: What about me? Say cheese. Kidding. Kidding. Kidding. (INAUDIBLE)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GOLODRYGA: OK. You knew --
ASHER: I needed that.
GOLODRYGA: -- that something Elon Musk is going to come in to the picture.
ASHER: Best line. We're the ones that are going to be (INAUDIBLE).
GOLODRYGA: Oh, I mean, yes.
ASHER: And their hand gestures.
GOLODRYGA: Make America Great depression again. Oi.
All right. We need some levity, right? In times like these.
ASHER: Always. Always.
GOLODRYGA: That does it for ONE WORLD. I'm Bianna Golodryga.
ASHER: I'm Zain Asher. Appreciate you watching. "AMANPOUR" with Bianna is up next.
END
