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One World with Zain Asher

Attack Survivor Describes Experience Inside The Synagogue; Sean "Diddy" Combs Sentencing Hearing Underway; Trump Administration: Thousands Of Federal Workers To Be Fired; Venezuela Says It Detected Five U.S. Planes Near Coast; October 1 Expiration Of AGOA Puts U.S.-Africa Trade In Peril; Aired 12-12:45p ET

Aired October 03, 2025 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:00:56]

BIANNA GOLODRYGA, CNN ANCHOR: Sean "Diddy" Combs faces sentencing on prostitution-related charges. "One World" starts right now.

The disgraced hip-hop mogul appears in a New York courtroom where he could be facing years behind bars. We're live from New York with the very latest.

Manchester's Jewish community continues to reel after Thursday's attack outside of a synagogue. The tragic details we're learning about what

happened.

We'll break down the Trump (TECHNICAL DIFFICULTY) defending both strikes in the Caribbean.

Hello, everyone. Live from New York, I'm Bianna Golodryga.

We're going to take you to Manchester synagogue terror attack right now where the U.K. authorities acknowledge that stray police bullets likely

killed one victim and injured another during the horrific incident at the synagogue on Thursday.

Police surmised the two victims were huddled behind a door inside the building when shots were fired and it was, quote, tragic and unforeseen

consequence of the officer's actions.

The male suspect who rammed his car into a crowd and began stabbing people was fatally shot by police at the scene. Three other people are in custody.

The two victims killed in the attack have been identified as Melvin Kravitz and Adrian Dolby. Three others have been injured.

The British Prime Minister praised law enforcement for their quick response earlier today.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KEIR STARMER, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: This was a dreadful attack, a terrorist attack to inflict fear, attacking Jews because they are Jews. And

it's really important today that the whole country comes together, people of all faiths and no faiths to stand in support and solidarity in our

Jewish community.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GOLODRYGA: Our Nic Robertson sat down with Gary Warnick, a survivor of the attack who described how the incident unfolded and his terrifying

experience inside the synagogue in real time.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GARY WARNICK, SYNAGOGUE SURVIVOR: And then I saw somebody, somebody I knew sitting in a chair or putting the chair covered with blood. And I realized

that was not a place for me to be.

I went back. At that point, I knew it was a -- a serious incident.

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: And what do you think can happen at that moment?

WARNICK: I can get killed.

ROBERTSON: You thought that could happen to you?

WARNICK: Yes. Yes.

ROBERTSON: You might die.

WARNICK: Yes.

ROBERTSON: And you've got their children in the synagogue at this time.

WARNICK: There were children, not my children, but there were children. There were three or four young kids. And the father said to them quickly,

get down under the pew, hide under the pews.

The next thing that happened was we saw police coming around the side of the building and kicking something.

ROBERTSON: Police with weapons.

WARNICK: Weapons. Yes. About three police. Then they moved us to the back of the building. The back of the building. And then we got moved to again

to a smaller cul-de-sac. We started to try to continue our services because we had by said, what else can we do? Somebody bought out a load of chairs

and loads of prayer books and we sat down.

ROBERTSON: I don't know if you've heard what the Prime Minister had to say this evening, but he said very explicitly this was an attack on Jews

because they are Jews.

WARNICK: I did say that.

ROBERTSON: Does that give you solace? Does it give the community strength?

WARNICK: No.

ROBERTSON: Because?

WARNICK: Well, it's words and actions and actions.

ROBERTSON: What actions does that need to be?

[12:05:00]

WARNICK: I think the main thing needs to be a calling down of the media coverage over Gaza.

ROBERTSON: Do you feel safe living in the U.K. now?

WARNICK: I've always but never really felt safe. (INAUDIBLE) I think has always been out so of course to live with you.

ROBERTSON: Do you want to --

WARNICK: At the age of about 10, I've -- as a Jew, I've had stones thrown at me.

ROBERTSON: Do you feel safe place to bring your girls up?

WARNICK: No.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GOLODRYGA: Really powerful interview. Our thanks to Nic for that report.

Well, in a historic move, the Church of England has appointed Sarah Mullaly as the new Archbishop of Canterbury, the first woman to hold a position in

1,400 years. Think about that.

In her first remarks today, she made reference to that synagogue attack.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SARAH MULLALY, ARCHBISHOP OF CANTERBURY-DESIGNATE: We are witnessing hatred that rises up through fractures across our communities. I know that the God

who is with us draws near to those who suffer. We then as a church have a responsibility to be a people who stand with the Jewish community against

anti-Semitism in all its forms. Hatred and racism of any kind cannot be allowed to tear us apart.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GOLODRYGA: 63-year-old was appointed Bishop of London back in 2018, the Church of England's third most senior leader.

Before her ordination, Mullaly was a nurse and served as Chief Nursing Officer for England. Major news there in the U.K.

Well, Sean "Diddy" Combs' sentencing hearing is underway right now in New York City. He is in court alongside members of his family who are there to

support him.

The disgraced music mogul was convicted of two counts of transportation to engage in prostitution back in July.

And just a short time ago, the judge began to set some expectations around the sentencing saying he doesn't see a reason to deviate from the advisory

sentencing range. Now, that's between just under six years to just over seven in prison.

Meantime, Combs' legal team released a documentary-style video ahead of sentencing that includes a montage of clips showing Combs' charity work and

his family.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEAN "DIDDY" COMBS, AMERICAN RAPPER AND PRODUCER: So instead of talking about the guns and violence, I was always talking about a better life.

Places we didn't go before. Things we never wore. Cars we never drove. Houses we never lived in. I think I brought an aspiration to hip-hop.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GOLODRYGA: Combs is also expected to speak before he is sentenced. Let's stay on this and get over to CNN's chief legal analyst Laura Coates who is

outside the courthouse right now.

So, Laura, interesting that we heard from a judge who said he doesn't see why they should deviate from the advised six to seven years here, which

would be a disappointment for the defense, but also for the prosecution as well who is asking for more time.

What is your reaction to this and your reaction overall to what we've heard thus far?

LAURA COATES, CNN CHIEF LEGAL ANALYST: The disparity here is so great, from a request from defense for 14 months, which would get him out of jail by

the end of this year, given the time he's already served awaiting trial and awaiting a sentencing. And then 11 years at the higher end.

Now, the reason for this is the crux of the matter. The prosecution has been clear. They're aware that he was acquitted of the more serious crimes,

RICO and conspiracy, and, of course, sex trafficking. Sex trafficking required fraud, coercion, violence to be calculated and factored in for the

jury.

They rejected that, but they said to the judge, you have to take into account the manner in which the prostitution related claims were performed

and that includes the violence. That's why they want that higher end.

Meanwhile, the defense is saying acquittal, you can't consider it and it would be an injustice to do so.

Now, where you stand right now is these guidelines. This is kind of a chart, Bianna. And what you do is you look at previous convictions, the

nature of the crime, factors like that. They're inputted into a kind of a grid and outcomes a particular range.

Now, the judge can vary from that, but there have to be some real extraordinary reasons to do so. The prosecution wants the judge to believe

the most extraordinary reason for doing so is that they don't believe that he is remorseful.

They've used terms like lip service to describe the way that Diddy has talked about himself being a change man, broken and humbled. They also say

that he's victim blaming and shaming and also trying to present himself as a victim from his own statements in a three-page letter to the court where

he describes the burden of knowing that he will have committed domestic violence for the rest of his life.

[12:10:03]

But domestic violence was not charged here. And what he has been convicted of looks to be likely in the managed expectations within that five to

seven-year range.

And we are still waiting to hear from Sean "Diddy" Combs who did not take the stand in his own defense at trial, which is his absolute right to have

chosen not to do so.

But now, he is speaking through this letter. He will speak through his children. He will speak through this documentary style video that shows him

as a family man, somebody who he believes is worthy of a second chance.

But let me point out to you, the judge will weigh that and the words of Cassie Ventura, the star witness in this trial. They will hear the

statements made by her parents who have said that 11 years as requested by the prosecution is about the same amount of time their daughter endured

abuse and harm at the hands of Sean "Diddy" Combs.

The question will be, what will be the most persuasive element to convince this judge what the ultimate sentence will be? And will it be Sean "Diddy"

Combs' own words today? We will see.

GOLODRYGA: And, Laura, before I let you go, just news in the last few minutes of the prosecution responding to what Combs has described as self-

reflection, humbling, an opportunity for a new life and learning from his mistakes behind prison while he's been in prison.

Is there a speaking engagement that -- that they say he has set up in Miami in the coming days?

COATES: They said that, and jaw has essentially dropped. They're alluding and saying that he was such, had such hubris, such arrogance as to schedule

speaking engagements in Miami next week.

Now, we don't independently, if not independently confirmed, that he has in fact done that. But the intimation in the statement in open court that they

believe that he assumes he'll be released, a judge will not take kindly to an assumption that this is all performative.

Now, given what the defense has argued should be the appropriate sentence, that would not put him out of prison until the end of this year. So I would

be shocked if those commitments were actually made.

But suffice to say, this is all part of the court of public opinion. And what they are saying is how they view Diddy, which is performative, lip-

service-driven, and not a changed man.

And finally, there is a dance that is being played here because, of course, Diddy has his appeal ahead of him. And although we know that he has been

convicted by a jury of his peers of two crimes, he never is required to admit to guilt. He never has to prove his innocence. And therefore, he is

holding on to saying that he is not committed even those crimes and is not personally benefited from what they are calling prostitution, such that he

should not be sentenced at the higher end of what Mann Act would require.

GOLODRYGA: All right. You're going to be there for us throughout the day, Laura Coates. And this could be --

COATES: Yes.

GOLODRYGA: -- a rather lengthy sentencing hearing that could go even into Monday, according to some of our own reporting. So at least you got some

good weather behind you, Laura. Good to see you, my friend.

COATES: The little things.

GOLODRYGA: Sunny.

COATES: Thanks, Bianna.

GOLODRYGA: Sunny day. Yes, exactly.

All right. Well, let's break down what we've heard so far. Lisa Bonner is an attorney and former litigator. She joins me now.

So, Lisa, you heard that conversation there with Laura. The judge had already denied Sean Combs' two requests to toss out his conviction to be

released on bail pending his sentencing.

What does that tell us about the judge's mindset, especially knowing what we just reported, that in the judge's opinion, it does seem reasonable to

look at a range of six to seven years behind bars per sentencing guidelines?

LISA BONNER, ENTERTAINMENT ATTORNEY: Yes, good afternoon.

The judge has been very consistent, very methodical, and he has -- the judge has consistently stated that there have been issues here with respect

to the victims in terms of the -- the violence, although he was not convicted on domestic violence, he has been very clear about the

ramifications and effects of the victims by the Sean Combs' effect of the - - on the victim's violence and the behavior that he has consistently demonstrated.

There has been no remorse. The judge has said that. The judge has also maintained that there could be a possibility of witness tampering during

the trial and -- and also mentioned that in terms of the release. If we let him out, then he might start harassing the victims.

So the judge has been very consistent in terms of his thoughts, in terms of where we are going to keep him, we're going to keep him locked up.

So I do think that we are looking around the five to seven years, which is what the mandatory -- or those sentencing guidelines have called for.

Again, these are not mandatory sentencing guidelines. They are suggested, but the judge has said, I do not see a reason to deviate from that. So I

expect the sentence will be handed down somewhat consistent with those guidelines.

[12:15:08]

GOLODRYGA: So then how does that factor into the defense's arguments that these were not violent crimes, that -- that he was charged and convicted of

and with, and that he has no priors?

BONNER: Well, that's a very great question. At one point the -- the sentencing guidelines said that you may take into consideration acquitted

behavior which -- which would be consistent of the violence.

Then the sentencing guidelines changed last year and stated, you do not -- that is not an issue. However, the judges looked in the records and looked

at a lot of evidence that has been submitted to him. And the judges agreed that you may take -- he may take into consideration the acquitted behavior

which is the violence that we have been discussing.

And the fact that Cassie has stated, repeatedly, I am terrified of this man. He has changed my life with this violence. He is manipulative. He is

not remorseful. He has been violent this entire time. I do not see that changing.

So considering that the judge may allow that, I do believe that the violence is going to take -- the judge is going to take into consideration

the fact that he has been consistently violent has not shown any remorse and that he -- that will be allowed and factored into that, which the

defense is saying, no, I don't want you to consider that. But the judge is saying, no, we may consider that so he is going to take that into

consideration in my opinion.

GOLODRYGA: Elliot Williams, one of our legal analysts and contributors, described what Sean "Diddy" Combs said both in writing, which I would

imagine was heavily lawyered up, and -- and if not written by his lawyers I'm sure edited by them as well as apology adjacent, essentially saying

that I have made mistakes in the past. I've learned from them. I'm a changed man. The judge should focus instead on people getting second

chances at life. And that he's learned a lot of humility being behind bars, but he hasn't owned up to or confessed to the actual charges.

How does that sit with a judge?

BONNER: Well, that's very interesting from a legal perspective because Sean Combs has said, I am going to challenge my conviction. I'm going to seek an

appeal, so he has to walk that very thin line in terms of admitting the behavior which would have taken into consideration, I am guilty of using

violence. I am guilty of using threats and coercion in this trafficking of process -- excuse me, in the prostitution transportation conviction.

However, the -- the issue is he cannot really come out and say that so he has said, listen, I understand that I've done some things and I've -- he's

consistently challenged his guilt but he has not admitted or shown absolute remorse for that behavior.

So there is a very thin line that he -- that Diddy must take into consideration when writing that letter which was, I agree, apology

adjacent. And I do believe that was written by his lawyers as well. So he has to be very careful about stating I'm sorry for using violence in -- in

using the violence with respect to the trafficking -- excuse me, the prostitution.

So, I don't think that there's a lot that the judge is really going to take into consideration with that because he's like, I should get a second

chance. This is akin to sex drugs and rock and roll behavior, that type of thing. So it didn't really weigh a lot.

And I think the judge already went into the case considering knowing what he is going to offer because all of this information was presented to him

before and ahead of time, so he's had a chance to look at all of the -- the videos, the letters, the -- the please-the-victim impact statements. He's

had a chance to consider all of that so far.

GOLODRYGA: Yes. I -- that surprised me too then when I heard that this could well go into Monday knowing that everything that the judge is going

to hear today he's already heard and read, so I would imagine he's walked in at least with an idea of where he's going to end up landing once he

determines just how long he will sentence Sean "Diddy" Combs. We'll be covering this all day, of course.

Lisa Bonner, good to see you. Thank you so much.

BONNER: Good to see you. Thank you for having me.

GOLODRYGA: And still to come for us, the White House has a mass firing list. And if you work for the U.S. federal government, you don't want to be

on it. We'll bring you the very latest in the government shutdown.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:20:15]

GOLODRYGA: All right. You're looking at live pictures from Illinois where law enforcement is in a standoff with dozens of protesters outside of an

ICE facility near Chicago. That's where Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem was spotted earlier.

Illinois State Police say they have arrested at least one person for disobeying a police officer and resisting arrest. They moved in when the

person refused to get out of the road.

And a Spanish-language journalist who spent more than two decades in the U.S. has been deported to El Salvador, this according to the Committee to

Protect Journalists. Mario Guevara was arrested while covering a No Kings protest near Atlanta in June.

The criminal charges against him were dismissed, but the government argued that his live streaming of law enforcement presented a risk. And he spent

months under ICE custody. Guevara first came to the U.S. from El Salvador in 2004 and gained popularity by documenting immigration raids. Dozens of

press freedom groups and journalists have called for his release.

The U.S. government shutdown is now in its third day, and there is no end in sight. In the hours ahead, we may get our first look at just how severe

the job cuts threatened by the White House will actually be.

The Trump administration has said the number of federal workers who will be fired is likely in the thousands. And key programs popular with Democrats

could also get slashed. These jobs and programs caught in the crosshairs of the government shutdown fight.

CNN's Kevin Liptak is following the story for us from Washington. And, Kevin, we heard from the House Speaker and the Senate majority leader as

well, just about an hour ago, another vote is expected on the Republican proposal in the next coming hours. We've already had a number of them that

have failed.

What did we hear from Republican leadership?

KEVIN LIPTAK, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE REPORTER: Yes. And they're very much entrenched in the position here. That vote that will happen in the next

couple of hours is expected to fail. They would still need eight Democrats to get on board with this seven-week stopgap measure that would fund the

government until November. And so far, only three Democrats are on board here.

And so you still continue to see both sides here very much dug in to their positions. The Republicans refusing to engage on discussions on healthcare

in particular, these Affordable Care Act subsidies that Democrats want extended.

The Democrats say that that needs to be part of any government funding measure. And so far, the two sides have not reconciled this at all.

There are some informal discussions going on, on Capitol Hill on a bipartisan basis about potentially how they could get to a point where they

extend those healthcare subsidies. Because at the end of the day, there is a recognition, I think, even among Republicans that this will be a potent

issue for voters next year, of course, the midterm elections coming up in November 2026. But they insist that those discussions not happen while the

government remains closed.

[12:25:15]

So far, these discussions remain very informal. They haven't necessarily engaged leadership in either party. And they haven't engaged yet with

President Trump, who in a meeting earlier this week with the Democrats and with the Republicans did seem open to extending them.

But so far, no sort of pathway out of this shutdown seems at all evident. At the same time, it's obviously becoming more and more politically sour.

You see the president really kind of trying to extract as much as he can from this politically. And so, so far, no real end in sight.

GOLODRYGA: And I have to say, the tactic of threatening more government firings, which is something that both he and OMB Director Russ Vought have

said they would do in the event of a government shutdown.

I'm wondering if there's a chance of that backfiring and what you're hearing at least behind closed doors from even some Republicans who worry

that that may actually prevent more moderate Democrats from coming forward and trying to negotiate a deal.

LIPTAK: Yes. I think that is a big fear. And certainly when the president was sort of cutting and slashing through the federal bureaucracy at the

very start of his term, there was some political backlash to that, including among the very cabinet secretaries who run these agencies and

weren't given a great deal of say in who the White House was cutting. And so it is a risky strategy.

We don't know at this point where those cuts will happen. All the president has said is that they will be at, quote, Democrat agencies. Of course, the

federal bureaucracy is neither Democrat nor Republican. It's nonpartisan. And there is certainly a fear that the more you start cutting, the more

services could potentially be affected for everyday Americans if those cuts end up being permanent.

But I think for President Trump, and for some of his top advisors, including Russ Vought, the budget director who has been at kind of the

forefront of all of this, they do believe that this will sort of continue to apply pressure on Democrats to come to the negotiating table and find a

way out of this.

You have seen an enormous amount of partisan politics come into play here far more than any previous government shutdown that I've covered. You've

seen it sort of in the messaging from the agencies to the public. It's on their websites.

There has been these stories about staffers at the Department of Education seeing they're out of office messages being changed without their

knowledge, blaming Democrat senators for what's happening here.

And, you know, it's kind of an unprecedented waging of the bureaucracy for partisan ends. There have been some questions about whether or not this is

even legal.

You also see the president and officials at the White House sort of continuing to use these memes, whether it's a Hakeem Jeffries, the House

Minority Leader wearing a sombrero and a mustache. He's accused the White House of being biased and racist in that meme.

But you also saw a different one today of President Trump and Russell Vought being depicted as the grim -- grim reaper. The president sort of

making light of all of this, even though there are continuing to be hundreds of thousands of federal workers furloughed, not getting paid.

Clearly a very serious situation that I guess he's just trying to make light of.

GOLODRYGA: All right. Kevin Liptak, thank you so much. Really appreciate it.

Well, the White House may be trying to seek legal justification for recent military strikes on boats in the Caribbean. CNN obtained a notice of the

Pentagon provided to Congress, and it says President Trump has determined that the U.S. is in armed conflict with drug cartels, which the

administration has designated as terrorist organizations.

The notice also said the president has determined that smugglers for cartels are unlawful combatants.

In the past month, the U.S. has carried out three attacks on what it claims are drug traffickers at sea, killing at least 17 people. But Congress has

not authorized the use of military force to target drug cartels.

And critics say the strikes on civilians in international waters were likely illegal in amount to extrajudicial killings.

Meanwhile, the Venezuelan government is criticizing Washington after it says it's detected five U.S. combat planes flying near the Venezuelan

coast.

CNN's Natasha Bertrand joins me now live from Washington. So, Natasha, the White House is making the case to Congress at the Pentagon that this is an

armed conflict with these drug cartels.

What is the response been thus far from military experts and those in Congress that you've spoken with?

NATASHA BERTRAND, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Bianna. This is the first kind of attempt by the administration to provide a more fulsome

legal justification for these U.S. military strikes on these boats over the last month, given that Congress had been demanding one, because, as you

said, the U.S. is not officially at war, declared by Congress, with these Venezuelan cartels.

[12:30:08]

And so what we're hearing is that it is still very legally dubious, this -- this authorization that the administration has put forward to Congress.

The administration has sought to make the argument here, according to this memo that was sent to the Hill, that to quote, these groups, these cartels

that it is attacking, are now transnational and conduct ongoing attacks throughout the Western Hemisphere as organized cartels. Therefore, the

president determined that these cartels are non-state armed groups. Designated them as terrorist organizations and determined that their

actions constitute an armed attack against the United States.

Essentially, the entire argument here is that because the president has determined that these are terrorist organizations and deemed them as such,

then he has the Article II authority, under the Constitution, to then move forward and defend the United States against them.

But the law is a little bit wonky in this respect because he still is required to show that these individuals and these terrorist organizations

actually pose a direct threat to the United States.

And so how they have determined that they do pose a direct threat is by saying that they are bringing drugs into the U.S., they are killing

Americans with these drugs, and that they are now unlawful enemy combatants, which essentially strips them of any due process rights that

they might have had had they simply been treated as criminals, for example, as drug traffickers have long been treated under the law.

And -- and also, of course, allows the U.S. to then kill them by declaring them enemy combatants in the way that the U.S. did against, for example,

Al-Qaeda during the war on terror.

So, Democrats, of course, on the Senate Armed Services Committee, they are not buying this. They are saying that this still amounts to extrajudicial

killing and that they are not convinced by this legal rationale, Bianna.

GOLODRYGA: And no doubt raises the risk of further escalation at the very least in the region as well.

Natasha Bertrand, thank you. Good to see you.

We'll be right back after a break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[12:35:39]

GOLODRYGA: Well, earlier this week, while Washington was consumed with the government shutdown, a 25-year-old trade deal between the U.S. and Africa

quietly expired.

If the African Growth and Opportunity Act is not renewed, it could cost Africa more than a million jobs and also spike prices of some products here

in the U.S. CNN's Larry Madowo has more.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

LARRY MADOWO, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Every day, for over two decades, thousands of people flooded to factories like this one all over

Africa for work.

These jobs exist largely because of the African Growth and Opportunity Act or AGOA, a landmark trade agreement between the U.S. and Africa.

After 25 years, the deal has expired. The agreement allowed more than 30 African nations duty-free access to the U.S. market for thousands of

products like motor vehicles, textiles, agriculture produce, and more.

Now, African unions warn more than a million jobs are in limbo.

DENNIS OUMA, QUALITY CONTROL AGENT, KENYA EXPORT PROCESSION ZONE: This job, this opportunity we are talking about directly touches the land, food of --

of -- of our normal citizens.

MADOWO (voice-over): Earlier this year, President Donald Trump's tariff policies cast doubt on an AGOA renewal plan, but according to Reuters, the

administration supported a one-year extension of the deal after African government officials lobbied for weeks to receive an extension.

Before the expiry, the World Trade Organization Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said, Africa could survive the end of AGOA because only a

small percentage of its exports go to the U.S.

NGOZI OKONJO-IWEALA, WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION DIRECTOR-GENERAL: We were talking to the U.S. What we were arguing for Africa is that, look, not to

help Africa anything. We are not seeking help.

What I said to them, the argument was Africa is the market of the future. And U.S. businesses will be seeking that market for the future. So, why

don't you just exempt the continent from the tariffs?

MADOWO (voice-over): Kenyan President William Ruto spoke with the U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and told him that was bipartisan support for

extending the agreement, citing his hope to explore new trade areas like mining and fishing.

WILLIAM RUTO, KENYAN PRESIDENT: We believe that AGOA gives both Africa and the U.S. a best chance to expand and deepen trade between the United States

and Africa.

MADOWO (voice-over): But the government shutdown on Wednesday halted talks, causing the October 1st deadline to pass, effectively ending AGOA. African

unions say these AGOA sustained jobs are critical to preventing mass unemployment, leading people to migrate to other countries, or turn to

exploitative employers for work.

MAMOCHOLI CHERE, STREET VENDOR (through translator): It's really hard for us. There are no jobs. There are no formal settlements where we can sell

our clothes from. It's a serious problem.

MADOWO (voice-over): The expiry of the agreement creates a lot of uncertainty for both Africa and the U.S., and many of you what it could

mean long-term.

Larry Madowo, CNN.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GOLODRYGA: Time now for "The Exchange" and an in-depth conversation about the impact of the end of the free trade deal.

Joining me now is Julians Amboko. He is a journalist and economic analyst based in Kenya. Julians, good to see you.

So with this expiration, how significant is this moment for African economies?

JULIANS AMBOKO, JOURNALIST AND ECONOMIC ANALYST: Thank you very much for this opportunity. I think it is extremely significant in a number of ways.

I think the conversation around AGOA is a lot more nuanced than it's been painted because just as the director general of WTO indicated, the

proportion of African exports that go to the U.S. market is just about eight percent, nine percent of the total proportion.

However, AGOA then constitutes 35 percent of that quantum. So, it's quite significant.

There are jurisdictions like Lesotho and Madagascar who have taken a significant (INAUDIBLE) how much they rely on the U.S. for exports.

There are jurisdictions like Tanzania and Gabon, which are barely affected because of this tiny proportion they rely on AGOA.

There are jobs at stake, and that is quite significant, especially considering the sort of precious African economies that are currently

facing. And that is a conversation I think we should be having.

More importantly, and finally, is that this is a reset moment for Africa in my view, because we're having a broader conversation around the African

continental future in the area. It is time, I think, to set the conversation around intercontinental trade as a buffer amidst all these

shocks.

GOLODRYGA: Well, analysts are warning that African exports to the U.S. could drop by a quarter.

[12:40:03]

So, what countries and sectors stand more to -- to lose here?

AMBOKO: Very good question. So, the lapsing of AGOA will disproportionately impact Africa's enlightenment (ph). By that I mean textiles in the

parallel. I mean agro food products. I'm talking about horticulture and dried fruits. That takes a significant heat.

And for jurisdictions like Kenya, South Africa, which are significantly reliant on horticulture, that has significant implications, especially in

terms of the FX inflows, the foreign exchange inflows coming into this market. So that is the conversation I'm seeing hitting the market.

But I think more importantly, we are seeing jurisdictions beginning to initiate separate bilateral conversations with the United States. We have

seen Kenya, we have seen Ghana take this route.

I think in the immediate and immediate term, that will be the case. But in long term, we shall have to have a consolidated voice to negotiate with the

United States.

GOLODRYGA: And final question, some argue that the U.S. risks losing geopolitical clout and influence, and seeding that ground now to China, if

this deal isn't renewed.

Do you share those concerns? Is that a credible argument?

AMBOKO: I think it does hold water because, globally, everyone is scouting for leverage. And I think that China and broadly speaking, the BRICS bloc

has been scouting for ways in which they can deepen their influence, especially on the global south and with a focus on Africa. So this is an

opportunity for that.

Africa within itself has been having a conversation around the Africa continental free trade area and something like the Pan-African Payment

System, which, of course, brings in the de-dollarization conversation when it comes to global trade.

So, certainly, there are dynamics which I think the United States is also weighing as it has this conversation. I am not surprised there was

indication that there could be an extension. But I think what African economies need to take off -- this off is even if there is an extension, I

do not think AGOA will take the shape and form it has had over the last 25 years.

Eligible countries are likely to reduce. Also the number of products enjoying preferential access are likely to be significantly scaled down.

GOLODRYGA: Yes. And it's notable that -- that you said that this should lead to an intercontinental arrangement here and more focus within the

continent. But we know that President Trump really prefers bilateral relations with countries. So, I wonder if some countries will see this as

an opportunity to perhaps focus on their own economy and develop more close of a relation with the president.

We'll have to leave it there though, Julians Amboko. End of an era, for sure. We will continue to cover this story. Thank you so much for joining

us from Kenya.

All right. That does it for the shortened hour of "One World." I'm Bianna Golodryga. Thanks so much for watching. "Marketplace Africa" is up next.

That's going to be followed by "Amanpour." Have a good weekend.

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[12:45:00]

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