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One World with Zain Asher

Lebanese Prime Minister: Beirut Ready to Resume Talks with Israel; Israel & Iran Trade Strikes as War Enters Second Week; Trump: U.S. will Grant Asylum to Iranian Women's Soccer Team if Australia Won't; Middle East Tension Continues to Rattle Global Markets; G7 Meeting to Discuss Joint Release of Oil Reserves; Mojtaba Khamenei Selected as Iran's Next Supreme Leader. Aired 11a-12p ET

Aired March 09, 2026 - 11:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[11:00:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ZAIN ASHER, CNN HOST, ONE WORLD: All right, coming to you live from New York. I'm Zain Asher. This is "One World". Tehran is signaling it's in for

a fight as Israel and Iran exchange a new wave of air strikes. Global oil prices continue to skyrocket, and the war now in its 10th day, so no sign

of ending anytime soon.

Here is the very latest. Iran is escalating its attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure. New images out of Bahrain show a huge fire and a plume of

smoke rising in the air. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait all reported new attacks as well. Turkey says another Iranian missile was

intercepted.

And siren sounded earlier in the northern city of Haifa in Israel, and at least one person was killed in an Iranian ballistic missile attack in

central Israel as well. Meantime, hours after Tehran named its new hardline leader, Israel announced it had begun a wide scale wave of strikes across

Iran.

Israel is also intensifying attacks on South Beirut. Lebanon now says it is ready to resume negotiations. We are standing by for further reaction from

U.S. President to Mojtaba Khamenei being named Supreme Leader of Iran. That is, of course, the Ayatollah's son.

I want to go straight now to Oren Liebermann, who's live for us on the ground. So, it looks as though we don't Oren just yet. We are going to take

a closer look at the new Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, that is the son of the Ayatollah. Let's dive deeper in all of this with Nancy

Youssef. She's a Staff Writer at "The Atlantic", covering national security and the Defense Department.

So, Nancy, just in terms of your perspective, you have Trump making these threats, saying that the Ayatollah's son would not be acceptable. Then Iran

then goes ahead and names the son of the former supreme leader as the new Ayatollah. Obviously, this is a clear act of defiance. Just walk us through

what Iran's game plan is here?

NANCY YOUSSEF, STAFF WRITER, THE ATLANTIC: Well, I think there are two game plans. You know, his father was Ayatollah for 37 years. His challenge is

surviving the next 37 days, because he will be the top target of the U.S. and Israel in terms of strikes.

If he's able to survive that period, I think the next challenge will be a consolidation of power, whether he's able to hold on to the regime and keep

it intact, in the face of what will at that point be likely very heavily damaged security apparatus, loss of defense capabilities, potentially loss

of its the control of its airspace.

But as you know, what they're signaling more than anything, is that the regime remains intact, and that despite all the calls for change, that the

country remains in the direction, the very direction that the protests that we saw earlier this year sought to change, the very direction that the

president said at one point would be unacceptable.

ASHER: I want to talk to you about the fact that the U.S. has not yet ruled out having boots on the ground in Iran. Obviously, doing that would be

very, very risky. We know that Iran's Armed Forces consists of approximately 610,000 active-duty personnel and roughly 350,000 reserve

personnel. It is one of the largest armies across the Middle East.

How many, how many forces would the U.S. really need to send to Iran in order to make an impact, assuming it does go ahead with having boots on the

ground? And just explain to our audience the real sort of risks involved, given the size of Iran's army?

YOUSSEF: So, the number of forces depends on the mission the United States is trying to achieve. If we're looking at something like what happened in

Iraq, where you're trying to put in forces to shape the future of the country, the United States went in with 170,000 troops the U.S., along with

its allied partners, and as we discovered, that wasn't enough.

So that gives you a sense of the scale that would be involved for something that intensive. If the mission is something narrower, things like securing

the uranium, securing oil fields, that becomes a much more specialized mission, you need a special kind of force, because you can't just send any

kind of service member to do those kinds of missions.

And it puts them at risk, because you can imagine, those sites are very heavily protected by the Iranians. And so, you would have U.S. forces in

limited numbers.

[11:05:00]

But on a very dangerous mission, and a very tricky one, logistically and technically. You know, if it's grabbing uranium and securing it, that's not

something that can be done easily. It requires a lot of expertise, a lot of skill. And at the same time, extra security precautions, because you have

to imagine, the regime has heavily protected those, those key sites.

ASHER: All right, stand by for us, Nancy, because we're going to go straight to our Oren Liebmann, who is in Israel and who has just heard

sirens where he is. Oren, just walk us through what the very latest is, and also the statement coming out from Lebanon's presidency as well amid all of

this?

OREN LIEBERMANN, CNN JERUSALEM BUREAU CHIEF: Zain, I apologize for the confusion. Just a moment ago, we got sirens without what has become the

normal 10 to 15 minutes heads up warning of incoming Iranian ballistic missiles. And that's in all likelihood, because it wasn't Iran firing this

time, and it was likely Hezbollah firing on Tel Aviv and on Central Israel.

When that's the case, you don't get that 10 minutes heads up instead, you just hear sirens and you have to run to a shelter, which is exactly what we

did just a moment ago. Those sirens as we stepped in, we saw a launch of an interceptor missile as we were on our way in, and then once we were already

safely here inside the shelter, we heard at least two or three loud interceptions suggesting they were fairly close to us here in the shelter

itself. We'll obviously look for reports of injuries and damage as we step outside here in just a few moments.

But as you pointed out, the Lebanese Presidency, a short time ago, within the last hour or so, issued a remarkable statement, this coming from

President Joseph Aoun on as he was on a zoom call with European Union officials. He had sharp criticism of Hezbollah, criticism of Israel as

well.

But then he called for direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon to achieve what he called a permanent cessation of hostilities. Let me read

you the part where he criticizes Hezbollah. And this is in light of the fact that it was Hezbollah, several days ago, at the start of the war, that

launched six rockets against Northern Israel, and that was all the reason Israel needed to do what it's doing now, which is an all-out assault on

Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah.

President Aoun said the one who launched those rockets wanted to achieve the fall of the state of Lebanon under aggression and chaos, even at the

cost of the destruction of dozens of our villages and the fall of tens of thousands of our people for the sake of the calculations of the Iran Ian

regime.

He calls out openly there Iran as being Hezbollah, as being an Iran backed proxy, and makes it quite clear that in his position, in the perform the

perspective of the presidency, Hezbollah is not acting in the interests of Lebanon or its people.

He then says this, that as a step on the path to a full peace, in accordance with international and U.N. resolutions, is moving towards

trying to get direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon, with the help of the European Union, to try to end the hostilities, a withdrawal of

Israel from occupied parts of South Lebanon.

That, in and of itself is remarkable, the call for direct negotiations, but the criticism of Hezbollah, the quite vocal criticism and sharp criticism,

I should add, and the call from help, or for help, from the European Union and others to make that happen, to get Hezbollah to back away. Keep away.

Keep in mind, several days ago, they outlawed and made illegal any military activity by Hezbollah, and now they're calling on help to try to make that

happen. The key question here, Zain, is Israel willing to engage on this? Are they willing to slow down or stop the assaults we see on Lebanon, on

targeting Hezbollah?

They acknowledged a second commando raid into Lebanon today. Is Israel willing to scale that back for the frankly, the olive branch we see the

Lebanese presidency reaching out with right now.

ASHER: Yeah, remarkable statement from the Lebanese President, President Aoun, essentially saying that Lebanon is tired, exhausted of continually

being dragged into conflict by Hezbollah as a result of Hezbollah's actions. Oren Liebermann, I'm so glad that you're safe. Do stay safe.

Obviously, we'll continue to check in on you throughout the next couple of hours. Thank you so much Oren Liebermann.

Let's go back to Nancy Youssef to talk more about this statement that our Oren Liebermann was just talking about there from the Lebanese President,

essentially trying to distance himself, or distance the country, rather, from Hezbollah's actions, talking about being willing to negotiate directly

with Israel, which is quite remarkable.

Talk to us about how much support Hezbollah is losing within Lebanon? And I think, more surprisingly, among even Shia Lebanese, who are continually

also tired of being dragged into conflict as well?

YOUSSEF: That's right. I mean, Lebanon has been through so many conflicts spurred by Hezbollah. We saw the attacks during the October 7th war in

Gaza, where there were strikes inside of Beirut going after Hezbollah leadership. It has really damaged the country, both in terms of its economy

and also its security forces, because they've seen these repeated incursions that have both harmed civilians as well as those targets.

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And I think for Hezbollah, the challenge also is that it is fighting as a proxy for Iran, and a weakened Iran at that. And so, I think this seems to

me a Lebanon who's reading a potential opportunity to reclaim control of the country as Hezbollah loses potentially, the kinds of influence and

support that it has enjoyed from Iran up until this point.

ASHER: And just in terms of how long this war can realistically go on for. Obviously, we know that Iran's stockpile of weapons is, of course, limited,

but so are American interceptors as well. And if this war really, really continues, if it turns into a long-term sort of regional conflict, the U.S.

has had to already increase the number of interceptors it's using.

Obviously, it used quite a significant amount last year during that 12-day war with Iran as well. How long can the U.S. really sustain at this pace as

well from a defense perspective?

YOUSSEF: That's the key question. I think so often we think of war sort of the diplomacy that talks what public leaders are saying. But in this case,

logistics are just as important, because what Iran is launching, in addition to ballistic missiles, are drones that cost roughly $30,000 each.

And the U.S. and its allies are using multi-million-dollar interceptors to bring those down over and over and over again. And so that cuts in the

stockpiles, not only for the United States and Israel, but for its Gulf partners, which means it's much harder to resupply on a much larger scale

than just for the U.S. trying to protect its military or Israel trying to protect its country it also reaches Gulf partners.

And so, the cost differential gives Iran an advantage because it can launch many more of them, whereas the U.S. has a multi-layer defense that depends

on very, very expensive systems. And so, we're already hearing concerns on the Pentagon about that stockpile, how long they can sustain this?

And particularly if the Iranians are able to keep overwhelming the intercept systems by sending swarms of them over particular sites, which

makes it hard for things like the Patriot to identify the threat and bring it down. And we should note that drones have been a key part of the Iranian

offensive. It has led to U.S. troop deaths, and it's led to damage across the region.

ASHER: And just in terms of the Kurdish minority Iran and what their role is going to be, obviously, if the U.S. chooses not to have boots on the

ground, or have a limited number of boots on the ground. They do have to rely on some of the forces that do already exist on the ground.

And obviously, there's been so much talk about the possibility of relying on Iran's Kurdish population and the Kurdish forces. We remember back in

2022 Mahsa Amini, the young girl who died at the hands of Iranian authorities, where there was so much outrage and so many sort of protesters

who took to the streets of Tehran that young woman was, of course, part of the Kurdish minority in the country.

And so, we know that there is an active appetite among the Kurdish population in Iran for change at the very top. But just walk us through

whether the Iranian Kurds can actually enlist the help of other Kurds in the region, perhaps the Iraqi Kurds, et cetera, in order to mobilize to

assist the United States? And what does the U.S. risks? What are the Kurds risk by really trying to engage the U.S. and sort of help with regime

change here?

YOUSSEF: So, when we think about some of the possible outcomes for Iran, one of them is the regime survives. One of them is that the regime changes

in a way that is very different than what we see now that it's the kind of state that Trump has talked about. The other is chaos.

And then the fourth is a fractured state where you have the regime, perhaps in charge of parts of the country and the Kurds in charge of another part

of the country. There are at least 16 major minority groups within Iran, and once you start talking about arming minority groups like the Kurds,

what you risk is not only that the state breaks up, but that it leads to regional tensions, particularly with a country like Turkey that would be

concerned about the implications on its own Kurdish population.

So, the challenge is that even if it's successful, as some would like it to be, does it lead to a fractured state? I would also note that while the

president said at the end of last week that he supported arming and helping the Kurds, two days later, he said he was against and I think that speaks

to perhaps allied partners coming to the United States and raising those concerns about what it could mean, not only for Iran but for regional

security?

ASHER: All right. Nancy Youssef, live for us there. Thank you so much. Appreciate it. All right, we are tracking the latest Iranian attacks on the

Gulf Arab states. Bahrain's national oil company has now declared force majeure after an attack on its refinery complex.

[11:15:00]

This notice is served when unforeseeable circumstances prevent them from fulfilling a contract. In addition, a desalination plant was hit in Bahrain

on Sunday, and dozens were injured in an Iranian drone strike in a town of Sitra. Meantime, Kuwait's air defenses are continuing to combat a wave of

hostile drones from Iran.

On Sunday, state media reports one of the strikes targeted a government building. And in Saudi Arabia, the foreign ministry now accuses Iran of

attacking them due to quote, baseless claims, including that fighter jets and refueling aircraft had left the Kingdom to participate directly in the

war, something that Riyadh says is false.

Let's discuss all of this with Nic Robertson, who's joining us live now from Riyadh, the Saudi capital. So, just walk us through this sort of

sustained attacks that we've seen across the Gulf region on energy infrastructure.

We know that Israel has been attacking Iran's energy infrastructure because that is the lifeline of the regime. But the fact that there has been energy

infrastructure across the Gulf region that has been attacked already in a war that's barely a week old. What could the fallout be here, Nic?

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: What the immediate fallout is what we're seeing, I believe, in the spike in oil prices,

because oil is now threatened, because it is, the refineries and facilities are being targeted. Sometimes they're a direct impact. Sometimes, as we've

seen in Saudi Arabia, drones sent to target Ras Tanura massive oil refinery a few days ago, are intercepted.

The debris falls that causes damage. Just this morning, there were two waves of Iranian drones sent at the Al Sheba oil field in the east of the

country. Here they were intercepted successfully. Oil continues to be a focus of Iran's targeting, something Saudi Arabia has responded to today,

saying that this breaches international humanitarian law, hitting civilian targets that includes oil infrastructure, airports, that sort of thing.

We've seen as well as you mentioned in Bahrain the desalination plant headed hit it was civilian residences that were hit overnight. Last night,

I think 32 people injured, among those many children seriously injured in that strike. Kuwait, we know, has now had to throttle back its energy

storage because it's running out of storage capacity.

Therefore, it will have to look at long term reductions in production. Saudi Arabia faces similar issues. So, Iran is doing two things here. One

is it's driving up the price of oil, but the other one is it's trying to put pressure on the Gulf States to weigh in and pressure the United States

and Israel to stop the war.

It does -- we don't get the sense that that's what's -- that's not the outcome here. The outcome is rather a warning, as we heard from the Saudi

foreign ministry today, warning in a statement that Iran's course of action is not the wisest course of action, that this course of action is going to

potentially escalate and widen the conflict, where the Saudi foreign ministry says that Iran would be the biggest loser.

So, the situation is quite literally being set for shortages of oil, high prices of oil, and the oil industry. And I think this is the hard reality.

Real politic of a war scenario in the region is that the oil facilities have limited protection and are vulnerable.

There are missile defenses, but debris can easily get through, and some missiles get through, and that's what we've been witnessing across the

Gulf. And that is a direct intent of Iran. It's not a byproduct of anything. This is precisely what they're trying to achieve.

ASHER: Nic Robertson, live for us there. Thank you so much. All right, still to come from the oil fields of the Middle East to your gas tank,

we'll look at how long the sky-high fuel prices might stick around, and when your wallet can expect a break that's next.

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ASHER: All right, Israel's Ambassador to the United Nations has just taken some questions from the media, and he was pressed on his country's strikes

in Lebanon.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DANNY DANNON, ISRAELI AMBASSADOR TO U.N.: We are a peaceful nation. We believe in diplomacy, but it takes more than declarations. And I tell the

Lebanese Leaders, take action against Hezbollah. Hezbollah started to fire rockets into Israel in order to show support for the Iranian regime to the

Ayatollah regime.

They wanted to avenge -- death, so that's not acceptable. If the Hezbollah will be restrained, then we are open to dialog, and we had a very good

dialog with the Lebanese government before.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ASHER: All right, President Trump says that he will grant asylum for the Iranian women's soccer team if Australia does not. The team is in Australia

for the Asian Cup games. The source tells CNN that five members of the squad have left the team's hotel and are safe with police.

CNN's Kevin Liptak joins us live now from the White House. So, Iran's women's soccer squad, the Lionesses, they actually ended up in Australia

just days before this war broke out, and obviously, for obvious reasons, it would be understandable why many of them, not all, but many of them might

not want to return home, given that there is a war happening in their country.

There has been this online petition urging Australia to do more to protect them, perhaps allow them to stay, perhaps issue humanitarian visas. But now

we're learning that President Trump has said that if Australia doesn't step up, in his words, that the United States will walk us through it, Kevin.

KEVIN LIPTAK, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE REPORTER: Yeah. And one of the reasons there is so much concern about their safety if they were to go back to Iran

is that they were essentially labeled traitors by state media after a match last week in which they refused to sing the national anthem.

And so, President Trump seems to have latched on all of these concerns about what could potentially happen to them if they were to return. He

wrote on "Truth Social" a couple of minutes ago, quote, Australia is making a terrible humanitarian mistake by allowing the Iran national women's

soccer team to be forced back to Iran, where they will most likely be killed. Don't do it, Mr. Prime Minister, give asylum. The U.S. will take

them if you won't.

So clearly, the president having quite a negative view about what could potentially happen to these women if they're to be forced to return. We

don't know at this point, whether all of these players actually want asylum, either in Australia or the United States or anywhere, they haven't

necessarily weighed in on that.

I think one of the concerns that you hear is that if they left Australia, obviously they wouldn't be able to go back to Iran directly at the moment,

because air traffic has been halted over there. But if they were to go to another third-party country like China or Russia, then perhaps their

options would be very, very limited.

Certainly, those countries which are allies of Iran wouldn't, you know, allow them to stay there. They would probably force them to go back. And

so, the time seems to be of the essence to determine what can be done to potentially help them if they want that help.

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You know, there have been these scenes in Gold Coast, which is where they are in Australia, of their bus, you know, surrounded by supporters of

people chanting, save our girls. It has become a really kind of a rallying cry for the people of Iran writ large, which have, I think, in all of the

discussions of the military and political objectives of this war have been sort of forgotten about in a lot of ways in Washington, about what is going

to happen to people Iran once this conflict ends.

And so, I think this is a really stark signal that there is concern about what happens to in a lot of instances, these very brave people who are

facing still a very authoritarian regime.

ASHER: All right, Kevin Liptak, live for us there. Thank you so much. And a short time ago, my colleague Bianna Golodryga spoke with the Israeli

Foreign Minister, Gideon Saar. It marks his first CNN interview since the start of the war with Iran. This comes as the Israeli military starts what

it calls a wide scale wave of strikes against what it says is Iranian regime infrastructure. We should listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GIDEON SAAR, ISRAELI FOREIGN MINISTER: I believe it was the right thing to do. When you go to a war, you always have prices. There are no free

lunches, and it's tough to be in war, but sometimes it's more dangerous not to act than to act.

And I'm sure that in this case, we both had the right decisions to act, and I praise both leaders, President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu, for

leading and bringing these tough decisions and also taking both nations to do what they have to do now in Iran.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ASHER: And you can see Bianna Golodryga's full interview with the Israeli Foreign Minister, Gideon Saar coming up at 01:00 Eastern Time on Amanpour.

All right, oil production on pause, the war has forced one country to temporarily stop its oil refinery production. We'll tell you what it means

for oil markets around the world. That's next.

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ASHER: Welcome back to "One World". I'm Zain Asher in New York. Here are some of the headlines we are watching for you today. Iranians are gathering

nationwide today to pledge allegiance to their new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei succeeds his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, he was killed at the

beginning of the war.

U.S. President Trump has said the choice is unacceptable and that he's not going to last long. Hours after Iran's new Supreme Leader was named Israel

and Iran traded a new wave of air strikes. Refineries in the Gulf nations also came under Iranian attacks sending oil and gas prices soaring, and

Turkey says it intercepted another Iranian missile as well.

Meantime, in Lebanon, Israel continues its bombardment. Video from Beirut shows Ramada Hotel on fire. The Israeli military says it took out several

senior commanders from Iran's hood forces who were in Beirut. And a short time ago, Lebanon's President called for direct negotiations with Israel

and an immediate ceasefire, and vowed the settlement of Hezbollah.

Strikes on oil operations in Bahrain have led to the country's national oil company, Bapco to pause production and declare a force measure that frees

it from commitments because of something beyond its control in this case, of course it's war. Video from social media shows a large fire and thick

smoke billowing near Bapco's refinery Monday morning. No word yet on injuries.

All right, it is no surprise that all of these events continue to have a negative effect on global markets. Let's take a look here. You see pretty

much all red across the board. DOW is down about a third of 3 -- 75 down, 0.75 percent, S&P 500 down half of 1 percent and NASDAQ is down about a

10th of 1 percent as well.

The war with Iran is continuing, causing oil prices to soar, putting countries around the world on alert. Brent Crude surge past $100 a barrel

for the first time since Russia's invasion of Ukraine back in 2022. Here's where Brent Crude is right now. Let's take a look over $100 a barrel. And

here's where WTI Crude prices sits right now, as well, almost $100 as well, $95 a barrel. Oil prices continuing to rise.

Meantime, G7 Finance Ministers will meet to discuss the joint release of oil reserves to help break down the price of oil. Matt Eagan is tracking

all of these developments. Now joins us live now. Oil prices obviously continue to skyrocket, reaching triple digits Matt pretty much $100 a

barrel. Obviously, this is significant, and if this continues at this pace, this is not good news for U.S. consumers, especially given what we might

end up paying at the pump here?

MATT EGAN, CNN SENIOR REPORTER: Yeah, Zain, that's right. I mean, we are living through a historic price spike. And if it lasts, and that's a big

if, but if it does, it would pose significant risk to the U.S. economy, and, frankly, to the entire world economy.

Now let's go back and look at where live U.S. oil prices are up 5 percent on the day, $95 a barrel. That's up from $67 a barrel before the war

starts. So that is quite the move in the span of just six days. And this comes after last week, when oil prices experienced their biggest one-week

percentage increase since futures training started in 1983.

However, I would note this is well off the highest levels of the day, because overnight U.S. oil prices actually hit $119 a barrel, and when they

were up there at $119 a barrel, this is what the oil chart looked like. Look at this spike over the last nine months since the war started, prices

just went straight up.

So why is this happening? Well, obviously, the war has disrupted supplies out of the Middle East. Not only have energy supplies been delayed because

the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut down, but oil producers in the region, they don't have anywhere to put all the oil. They're literally

running out of storage, and so some of them, including Iraq and Kuwait, have had to slash production.

Analysts say this is a historic disruption, about 20 percent, 20 percent of the world's oil production has been disrupted by this war. Some context,

that is, according to Veteran Analyst Bob McNelly, that is roughly twice as big as the next closest historical disruption, which was back in the 1950s

during the Suez Crisis.

So, this of course, is just a massive deal for the global energy supply chain. And when you look at consumer prices, the national average is now at

$3.48 a gallon for regular gasoline. Here in the U.S., that's up $0.50 since before the war started.

[11:35:00]

And this is the highest level since the summer of 2004 and it's not just gasoline prices. Jet fuel prices are skyrocketing. Look at diesel, 24

percent increase. So, look Zain, I think the key here is duration. How long does this last? If it's just a few days, then this could just be a blip.

But if this is something that lasts for weeks or longer, then you will hear some significant concerns about a potential recession here in the U.S.

ASHER: And Matt that you know, there has been some talk of potentially releasing emergency oil stock piles reserves, just explain to us how

effective that would be in terms of just sort of stabilizing markets?

EGAN: Yeah. Well, the U.S. alone has the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which is the largest energy the largest emergency oil stockpile on the planet.

And it is designed, really, for emergencies like this, times of war. It's been used during natural disasters like hurricanes as well.

However, it's important to remember that the SPR is significantly smaller than it used to be. It's about 30 percent smaller than it was back in early

2022 before Russia invaded Ukraine. That's because the Biden Administration aggressively drained oil from the SPR and while the U.S. has started to

replenish it, it still remains much smaller than it was.

And analysts tell me that even if the U.S. released emergency oil and other countries released some of their stockpiles as well, this likely would not

be a game changer. It could maybe ease the panic, stop the bleeding a little bit, but it doesn't solve the underlying issue Zain, which is

there's just not any oil, or very little oil coming out of the Middle East, and that, of course, is just not sustainable. Back to you.

ASHER: All right. Matt Egan, live for us there. Thank you so much.

EGAN: Thank you.

ASHER: Diane Swonk is the Chief Economist at KPMG and joins us live now from Chicago with her perspective. We've been talking about the fact that

20 percent of the world's percent of the world's oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz that is a massive problem, considering that sort of

strait has now been choked off because of this war.

Just explain to us which oil produces around the world over the long term it will take some time could really offset the loss production we're seeing

from Gulf countries?

DIANE SWONK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, KPMG: Well, this really is a huge shock. And we can see increased production, but to see increased production in the

U.S., you need a six-month visibility in much higher prices than what we had prior to what was going on in the Middle East.

The break evens in the U.S. now are around $70 per barrel, a little higher than they were a year ago, due to both consolidation in the industry and

we've also had tariffs, which have increased the cost of break evens for the oil producers. Now, some fields are as low as 50, but some go up as

high as $80 per barrel.

So, getting that increased production out there, you nearly need to have some visibility that you're going to have a sustained period of higher

energy prices that justify that production. And even then, the fastest that it could come online is over 60 days.

And I think that's the important thing to remember at this point, is that there's not any easy sort of, you know, control switch to keep energy

supplies up at the levels that we need to prevent the kinds of spikes we've seen in the overall cost of oil.

We also know that for every $10 increase in the United States in the price of oil, it does show up as $0.25 on the gallon. So that is quite a big move

we've seen since the beginning of the year already, and the speed with which is hitting some gasoline stations has really left consumers sort of

shocked.

The only good news and silver lining to where we are, although it may be problematic for the Federal Reserve, is that we're starting to see a surge

in tax refunds hit consumer bank accounts, which will help to blunt the blow of these higher prices, but could also make for the Fed a much more

difficult, stickier bud of inflation.

ASHER: Yeah, that could blunt the blow, but it's a temporary -- it's a temporary fix. But just in terms of the possibility of a global recession

or a significant economic slowdown, we are seeing oil prices in the triple digit territory, $100 a barrel, at what price levels typically trigger

global recessions Diane? How bad would it have to get?

SWONK: Well, we need to get a lot worse than it is right now. We don't want to see that happen. But we need to have a sustained period above 100 for a

sustained period of time, and even then, the U.S. is better sort of positioned to weather those kinds of shocks than other parts of the world.

Now, China has a lot of oil reserves. They've kept up to a 200-day supply is what they've got on storage, which is pretty stunning. But Asia and

Europe are much more exposed to the supplies than the United States.

[11:40:00]

But let's face it, even in the United States, the price of West Texas Intermediate is priced on global prices, and so anything we see happen to

global prices happens in our backyard as well. Anything that goes on longer than three to six months, raises that risk of a recession.

We have growth actually slows very dramatically over the summer, and then as oil production very gradually comes back on and prices gradually come

off, the economy can come out of it. But a big factor holding the situation in the United States of is that fiscal stimulus from 2025 that's showing up

now in 2026.

ASHER: And how might not just the Fed respond, but Central Banks around the world respond to oil led oil driven inflation surges Diane?

SWONK: So, Central Banks around the world are in most of them are in a much better position than the Federal Reserve because many central banks around

the world have already seen inflation wrestle down to their targets and some price stability, so they're in a position to sort of look through the

price increases that we see due to oil.

What's worrisome in the United States is that we've actually seen an acceleration in service sector prices, and there's still some pipeline

inflation due to tariffs that are expected to hit in the early part of this year, and as we move into this year. So, those two things together, along

with the oil shock and fiscal stimulus, makes it harder for the Federal Reserve to look through these increases than it does for other central

banks where there's more demand destruction as a result of it.

ASHER: All right, Diane Swonk, appreciate you joining us. Thank you so much. All right, still head, the tight rope European Leaders are walking as

the war in Iran rages on. We'll tell you what French President Emmanuel Macron is doing in Cyprus. Stay with us for that.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ASHER: All right, leaders across Europe continue to walk a fine line between offering some support for the U.S. military action in Iran are also

warning of a worsening situation across the region. French President Emmanuel Macron is in Cyprus to meet with Greek Leaders. His visit comes

just days after France deployed warships to the Mediterranean after a drone attack on Cyprus last week.

British officials said the drone struck one of its military bases on the island. The UK says it was not launched from Iran, but that it was similar

to the drone that Iran uses.

[11:45:00]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced Ukrainian drone experts will be sent to the Middle East as well. And as we mentioned

earlier, G7 Finance Ministers are meeting today to discuss joint release of oil reserves. CNN Producer Sebastian Shukla joins us live now from Berlin.

So, Sebastian, the oil prices reaching $100 a barrel has really sort of shaken a lot of countries around the world. You've got G7 Finance Ministers

holding this emergency meeting to discuss releasing oil reserves as a way to stabilize markets. Walk us through that.

SEBASTIAN SHUKLA, CNN PRODUCER: Yeah. So actually, that G7 Finance Ministers meeting has now ended, and we've heard that the group are not

going to release the extra stocks that they hold into reserve, into the market just yet. To quote the French Finance Minister, he said, we're just

not there yet.

What the group have decided to do, though, is to be able to just continue to monitor the developments with the market and basically, they're going to

see how all of this unfolds Zain. What we've noticed here, though, of course, is that the spike in all of this oil price and activity is because

of that effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz and the attacks that we've seen on oil infrastructure, gas and oil infrastructure in Iran and

around the region.

What that means is that although European nations and many of the G7 nations are not involved in this conflict, that they are passing on the

impacts of this attack and crisis onto consumers because it's hitting oil prices, which hits petrol prices, which come on and pass on to car drivers,

and that people will feel in other parts of their life as well.

But the statement from the G7 right now is that we are not going to do anything. We are just going to continue to monitor it for the time being.

ASHER: And in other developments on the continent, we know that Emmanuel Macron travel to Cyprus, essentially saying that an attack on Cyprus is

really something the whole continent should be concerned about, because we had those drone strikes on Cyprus on the outset of the war. Walk us through

Mr. Macron's visit Sebastian.

SHUKLA: Yes. So, the French President has been in Cyprus and is still there, and just finished a meeting with the Cypriot President and the Greek

Prime Minister, where he effectively said just that an attack on Cyprus is an attack on all European nations. And he wanted to go there, in effect, to

show solidarity with Cyprus, the Europe's most Eastern member state.

And the one that is the closest to this conflict. And as you said, has already seen, or at least been drawn into this conflict in some way. Macron

himself, appearing in Cyprus in Paphos, is a show of solidarity. But that show of solidarity is also coming in raw fire power as well.

We see that the aircraft carrier, the Charles de Gaulle, the flagship carrier for the French Navy, is already in that theater and that part of

the world, and will continue to act in a defensive measure and posture for European allies.

Because although that they are not at the center of this conflict, what they are hoping is that A, they are not dragged into it in any way if it

can be avoided. And B, that they want to be able to protect their assets that they have in the region, whether that's economic or whether that is

military.

There are thousands of European soldiers stationed in the Gulf and around that part of the Middle East. And so European Leaders want to be able to

say that, look, we are trying to protect ourselves as the potential spill- over of this conflict could happen, and that they want to be prepared Zain.

So, this is very much a show of solidarity with Cyprus at the moment, and President Macron, at the moment, from the European standpoint, is leading

that charge Zain.

ASHER: All right. Sebastian Shukla, thank you so much. Appreciate it. All right, still ahead Iran's new Supreme Leader, what we know about him and

how he will guide Iran amid a growing war that's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[11:50:00]

ASHER: All right, this is the scene in Iran. Cheers in celebration as supporters flooded the streets of Qom after Iran appointed Mojtaba Khamenei

as the country's new Supreme Leader. The 56-year-old son of the Former Leader Ali Khamenei was held -- who had held a position rather for nearly

four decades before being killed in U.S. Israeli led strikes in Iran on February 28th.

President Trump is calling the appointment of Mojtaba unacceptable. Mojtaba Khamenei's rise to power is sending an unmistakable message about where

Iran's hardline rulers wish to take the regime. Isabelle Young has the details.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ISOBEL YEUNG, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): As many in Iran celebrated Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death. Others mourned it, but his

second son, 56-year-old Mojtaba Khamenei was planning to step into his father's shoes and into the heart of war with Israel and the U.S.

Mojtaba Khamenei is Iran's declared new Head of State, the spiritual leader for a brutal regime his father came to embody before he was slain by Israel

and the U.S. in joint strikes. Alongside his father, Mojtaba's mother and wife were also killed in U.S. Israeli air strikes.

MAHA YAHYA, DIRECTOR, CARNEGIE MIDDLE EAST CENTER: The signal regime is saying is sending, is continuation. We're still holding together. It's more

of the same. And in fact, we're going to become even more hardliners than we were before. All the military pressure that is that the country is under

is not going to get us to shift position.

YEUNG (voice-over): Born in Mashhad in 1969 Mojtaba Khamenei served in the Iran Iraq War and studied in the Holy City of Qom. Mojtaba Khamenei has

strong links with the security establishment, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as well as the besieged paramilitary force.

Relationships he's likely to foster if he wishes to rule in the same vein as his father. But the Junior Khamenei could struggle for legitimacy even

among supporters of the regime. He's not a well-known cleric and has not held government office. And a father to son succession may not be palatable

to the supporters of a revolution that overthrew a monarchy.

But the new Ayatollah's greatest challenge is the regime's current existential threat posed by the war unleashed by the U.S. and Israel.

Israel has confirmed the new leader will immediately be an assassination target, if he isn't one already. Trump says the U.S. and Israel have killed

dozens from Iran's leadership circle since 28th of February, and they're far from finished, which complicates plans for a U.S. preferred successor.

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: Well, most of the people we had in mind are dead. So, you know, we had some in mind from that

group that is dead, and now we have another group. They may be dead, also based on reports. So, I guess you have a third wave coming in, pretty sure

we're not going to know anybody.

YEUNG (voice-over): The appointment of Mojtaba suggests that, at least for now regime change has not been successful.

[11:55:00]

A new Ayatollah and a new enemy of the United States and Israel with at least one advantage over his peers, he's still alive. Isobel Yeung, CNN,

London.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ASHER: All right. Stay with CNN. There is more "One World" with my colleague Bianna Golodryga, after this quick break. Don't go away.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

END