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One World with Zain Asher

Lebanese President has Call with Trump after Earlier Declining to Speak with Israeli PM Netanyahu; Pete Hegseth: U.S. Ready for Combat if Iran Doesn't Agree to Deal; Zelenskyy Looking for Help from European Partners; Later Today, Trump Heads to Las Vegas to Talk About Economy; IMF Sees Global Oil Shortfall This Year Due to Iran War. Aired 11-11:42a ET

Aired April 16, 2026 - 11:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[11:00:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BIANNA GOLODRYGA, CNN HOST, ONE WORLD: Hello, everyone. Live from New York. I'm Bianna Golodryga.

ZAIN ASHER, CNN HOST, ONE WORLD: And I'm Zain Asher. You are watching "One World". Does the White House sound optimistic about a possible second round

of talks with Iran. Tehran is making it clear that a ceasefire in Lebanon is as important as the truce in Iran.

GOLODRYGA: According to Lebanese officials, President Trump spoke to President Joseph Aoun earlier today. And on social media, Trump posted that

Israeli and Lebanese leaders were set to hold a historic phone call. But a Lebanese official tells CNN that President Aoun is declining to speak to

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

ASHER: Yeah, Lebanon says that they won't negotiate under fire as fighting continues to rage between Israeli forces and the Iran backed Hezbollah in

the southern part of the country.

GOLODRYGA: The Lebanese state media says Israel destroyed the last bridge over the Litani River which bisects Lebanon, cutting off thousands of

residents from crucial aid.

ASHER: National Security Reporter Jennifer Hansler joins us live now from the U.S. State Department. So, we saw President Trump basically jumping the

gun and saying that there were going to be talks between the leaders of Israel and Lebanon, but the President of Lebanon essentially saying that's

not the case, because we want a ceasefire before we actually hold any direct talks with Israel. Israel, for its part, wants security. So how do

both sides move forward here?

JENNIFER HANSLER, CNN SENIOR NATIONAL SECURITY REPORTER: Well, that's the big question here, Zain and Bianna, is, how do you get past this kind of

impasse that we are seeing between the two sides on this front?

Of course, this is coming, you know, 48 hours after the two sides met for the first time in decades, here at the U.S. State Department, to try to

start to build a framework for moving forward. But the idea of a ceasefire is something that is key to any sort of progress.

This is something that coming out of those talks. The Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. said that Israel would not commit to a ceasefire. The Lebanese

Ambassador to the U.S. said that she had raised that in that context. So that brings us, you know, fast forward to today, where this is still a

major impasse.

There was a lot of churns yesterday about the potential that one could be reached, even a temporary one, that did not come to pass here, and we saw

the President of Lebanon not only speaking with the U.S. President, but also Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, to again press for the need for

ceasefire in the context of this diplomatic path forward.

Now, when President Trump put that post on "Truth Social" about the Israeli and Lebanese leaders speaking to each other. He didn't really give any

details there. So, as you said, it seems he may have jumped the gun or things have changed since he posted that in the wee hours of the morning,

but there is a lot here at stake.

Of course, these strikes have continued. There have been strikes on medical workers, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health. So, there is a lot

here at stake you guys about whether or not we can get to a deal. And then the broader context, of course, is the U.S. and Iran talks.

U.S. officials have sought to de link these. We heard from a senior administration official yesterday telling us that they were not linked

together the talks in Islamabad and the talks that we saw here in Washington, DC, but you can't argue that these two are not related,

particularly as Iran has sought to include Lebanon as part of this ceasefire.

This is something Lebanese officials have also sought a de linkage of, but it's virtually impossible to de link these two issues that are so

intrinsically tied here Zain, Bianna.

ASHER: All right. Jennifer Hansler, live for us. Thank you.

GOLODRYGA: Impossible to de link because of the role that Hezbollah has played throughout all of this. Our next guest is a Senior Fellow at the

Middle East Institute who specializes in U.S. Foreign Policy, Fadi Nicholas Nassar joins us now. Fadi Nicholas, welcome to the program.

So, there are reports that the IDF may be implementing a ceasefire as soon as this evening. Now this comes as reports, and as we just heard in our

previous conversation there with Jennifer Hansler, that the president may have jumped the gun President Trump by suggesting that President Aoun would

be holding a phone call with Prime Minister Netanyahu.

The fact that that didn't happen, I'm curious to get what your view on what role if any Hezbollah played in that decision?

FADI NICHOLAS NASSAR, SENIOR FELLOW, MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE: Well, thank you for having me, and let's first take a step back. Actually, I think you know

this was a first step. And it's a big one, because you essentially have both sides, Israel and Lebanon, agreeing that at the end of the day,

they're going to have to talk to each other to resolve this long-standing conflict.

[11:05:00]

That phone call didn't happen. But that doesn't mean that's a loss. We actually have three winners here. First, Israel gets to break the taboo in

Lebanon of direct talks, and the Lebanese, too have a win. The president gets to tell his base, hey, the Lebanese have sovereignty here, and they're

insisting on a ceasefire, on negotiating, not under fire.

And Washington actually is the biggest winner, because they are the ones facilitating these talks. They are the ones that are giving the Lebanese an

opportunity to negotiate the end to the conflict on their terms, not on Iran's. That's a big win for Washington.

ASHER: When you think about what Israel is actually demanding of Lebanon, this idea that there has to be the sort of complete and total disarmament

of Hezbollah, that is a goal that is virtually, I want to say, almost impossible for the Lebanese state, as weak as it is and as politically

divided as it is.

And just given the fact that Hezbollah is a political party, it is so many things, just in terms of humanitarian aid, that it offers the sort of Shia

Lebanese people on the ground there. It has its tentacles in various different parts of the Lebanese state. So, when Israel says we need the

complete and total disarmament of Hezbollah, how on Earth does Lebanon agree to that?

NASSAR: Well, first, that's not an Israeli demand. That's a Lebanese demand and a Lebanese responsibility. Look, you basically have two main challenges

ahead to your point. On the one hand, Israel has imposed a security zone in the south, and it's produced a massive humanitarian crisis.

I mean, more than one in five Lebanese people are displaced. And let's be clear here, these are not Hezbollah's villages. They're Lebanon's villages.

And on the other side, the Lebanese government's continued reluctance, I wouldn't say lack of ability, but the lack of will to confront Hezbollah

and fully assert its authority is undermining its credibility.

Both are undermining Lebanese sovereignty. But here's the major point that I want to stress. The United States can make all the difference. It can

help structure a step-by-step process that helps achieve the needed goals that you're talking about, of disarming Hezbollah that can be achieved and

restoring the Lebanese state's full sovereignty, which means Israel's full withdrawal.

And I want to just end with some optimistic point. The opening is actually already there, and it's Beirut being demilitarized. That's a Lebanese

request and demand the Lebanese Prime Minister called for it. Now, the government and the Lebanese Armed Forces, the army, has to deliver.

And if they can do that, Israel can take a step of its own, whether it's a temporary cease fire like you're mentioning, whether it's a localized one,

and what matters most is not the particular steps, but where they lead, and that's a sovereign Lebanese state that controls its own decisions of war

and peace.

GOLODRYGA: And I know you have argued that President Aoun and the Prime Minister Salam must seize this historic opportunity to finally disarm

Hezbollah. Hezbollah, I would imagine, also has a vote here, and would try to test that resolve. What do you expect Hezbollah to do in response now,

if the ceasefire does, in fact go in place?

NASSAR: Look, it's an excellent question, and it's the question on everyone's mind. I have no doubt that Hezbollah is a spoiler, as are their

Iranian backers. But they have been weakened. They've been degraded. And most importantly, the balance in Lebanon is shifting.

And if you are in Washington today, if you are a decision maker, you can make all the difference in changing the calculation, because the battle is

going to be won inside Lebanon. And you do it by changing the incentives. Two quick points.

You start with the carrots. You start backing the Lebanese state, its institutions, its economy, the Lebanese Armed Forces, so it can act on its

decisions. But you also have to bring into the sick pressure to those obstructing Hezbollah's allies that have captured key institutions that are

corrupting the economy, that are destabilizing the country.

So, it has to be both you support the state and you raise the cost of undermining it, and when you do, it is all those actors in Lebanon, those

in between, that will start betting on the Lebanese state to succeed, because that's the only way that we break this cycle of war.

ASHER: From a diplomatic perspective, how important is it that there is a phone call between Aoun and Netanyahu at this point?

NASSAR: Look, I think for me that whether you have a phone call, what matters most, I'm going to keep repeating it is the end destination. These

are means, right? So, they're ways to bring trust, bring recognition, but it's important the context in which they happen. And I think the biggest

conclusion, and we heard this from Secretary of State, Rubio, is that we bring a permanent end to this war.

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This has to be the last war between Israel and Lebanon. Now, that's up for the Lebanese Government. It's up for Israel to decide together. But the

point is, they agree right, that it has to be an engagement between them, not an arrangement with Hezbollah.

GOLODRYGA: Right. I mean, the fact that there's even potential talk of a window opening for some sort of normalization between these two countries

down the road, obviously a ceasefire and a stop in hostilities needs to be the first chapter.

But that that conversation is even being had, perhaps is the one glimmer of hope that we can grasp on to throughout this war. Fadi Nicholas Nasser,

thank you so much for the time.

ASHER: Thank you, Fadi. All right we have new reaction from the Pentagon as the U.S. carries out its naval blockade on Iranian ports. If this blockade

continues, Iran is threatening to shut down shipping operations in the Red Sea, Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman.

GOLODRYGA: Meantime, the U.S. is hoping that Iran's leaders will eventually offer concessions to alleviate the blockades economic repercussions. A

short time ago, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth gave this direct message to Iran's military.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PETE HEGSETH, U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE: We'll start with a message to Iran's military leadership, to the cage leadership and IRGC leadership. We're

watching you. Our capabilities are not the same our military and yours. Remember, this is not a fair fight, and we know what military assets you

are moving and where you are moving them to.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ASHER: All right. Zachary Cohen is tracking all of these developments from Washington for us. So according to the U.S., this blockade has turned 13

ships around. That's according to Dan Caine. The U.S. forces at this point in time have not had to board any. We saw during that news conference, Pete

Hegseth essentially said, if Iran does not comply with this blockade, they will use force.

On the other hand, Iran is now threatening to control the Red Sea in this sort of apparent arms race of who can control the world's most important

waterways. Just walk us through where the status quo is right now Zach?

ZACHARY COHEN, CNN SENIOR NATIONAL SECURITY REPORTER: Yeah, Secretary Hegseth really trying to paint this picture of the U.S. military using the

ceasefire to re arm, continuing to get a more powerful presence in the region, while casting the Iranian military as a diminishing force, one that

has essentially limited assets available and left after the weeks of bombing and the inability to reconstitute.

Now that does sort of ignore the reality, though, that Iran has proven that it has asymmetric means, including asymmetric means to continue to

effectively control or threaten vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, shutting it down to shipping. The shipping industry, which we have seen, has not

demonstrated the kind of confidence that they can transit that waterway with any sort of level of safety, even though a few have tried.

Now the blockade, the state of play there is that the blockade, according to the U.S., continues to hold and that, as you mentioned, the U.S. Navy

has so far turned away 13 vessels that they say were trying to either come go to or come from Iranian ports.

And I want to play a little sound from General Dan Caine, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, who really emphasized and reiterated a key point and

distinction here between the U.S. blockade and what the Iranian are doing in the Strait of Hormuz. Take a listen to how Dan Caine characterized the

U.S. efforts in that key waterway.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEN. DAN CAINE, U.S. JOINT CHIEFS OF CHAIRMAN: This blockade applies to all ships, regardless of nationality, heading into or from Iranian ports. The

U.S. action is a blockade of Iran's ports and coastline, not a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Enforcement will occur inside Iran's territorial seas

and in international waters.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COHEN: So General Caine obviously really stressing there that the U.S. efforts are targeting and directed toward Iran specifically, not

necessarily an effort to stem the flow of navigation through the Strait writ large. Now it remains to be seen, though, how long the U.S. Navy can

continue to impose this blockade.

We've obviously heard today that 13 ships have been turned away so far, and that the U.S. Navy has not been forced to board any vessels that have tried

to cross the blockade that they General Caine and other commanders have said that they're not only prepared to do that, but use additional means of

force if necessary.

So, there are additional U.S. naval assets headed towards the region the USS, George H W Bush Aircraft Carrier and its fleet of destroyers heading

that way to either replace or join the two aircraft carriers that are already there. U.S. Navy experts have said that U.S. needs at least two

aircraft carrier strike groups to impose this blockade.

And Pete Hegseth says saying today that the U.S. is prepared to do that for as long as necessary, unless Iran, quote, chooses wisely and pursues a

diplomatic agreement of some kind.

[11:15:00]

ASHER: All right. Zachary Cohen live for us. Thank you. All right Pope Leo is not mincing words during his latest stock in Africa. He was greeted by

cheering crowds Cameroon, but delivered a frank message for world leaders, as the controversy involving him and the U.S. President heats up.

GOLODRYGA: Plus, flames light up the night sky in cities across Ukraine, the latest on one of Russia's fiercest bombing assault this year.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

GOLODRYGA: All right, right now, Pope Leo is celebrating mass in Cameroon in the City of Bamenda. His trip comes as the Pope's feud with President

Trump simmers. Pope Leo was also referenced, also referenced Cameroon's own separatist conflict, which has gone back nearly a decade and left tens of

thousands of dead. Pope Leo had some strong words for the world's leaders.

ASHER: Earlier, the Pope said the world was, in his words, being ravaged by a handful of tyrants.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

POPE LEO, HEAD OF CATHOLIC CHURCH: Woe to those who manipulate religion in the very name of God for their own military, economic or political gain,

dragging that which is sacred into darkness and filth. The Masters of War pretend not to know that it takes only a moment to destroy, yet often, a

lifetime is often not enough to rebuild.

They turn a blind eye to the fact that billions of dollars are spent on killing, on devastation. The world is being ravaged by a handful of

tyrants. It is held together by a multitude of supportive brothers and sisters.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ASHER: Our Christopher Lamb has been traveling with the Pope and joins us live now from Cameroon on the phone. So just in terms of what the Pope

said, this idea that the world is being ravaged by a handful of tyrants. I mean, we can all sort of intimate that he was likely referencing possibly

the U.S. President, but he is in Cameroon.

And what's important here is that this is a country where the Leader Paul Biya has been in power since 82 just speaking of autocrats. And on top of

that, we reference the Anglophone crisis, which has been happening in that country since 2017. You have ongoing clashes between the Anglophone and the

Francophone parts of the country Christopher?

CHRISTOPHER LAMB, CNN VATICAN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, that's right. I mean, hopefully you're coming here, really, to a conflict zone, a place that

isn't speaking safe to travel to.

[11:20:00]

But you know, we're told that the separatists agreed to a ceasefire during the demo essence during the time the Pope's here. And I have to say that

the Pope has been received with great joy and excitement and the mass here he's celebrating at the moment, being attended by thousands of people who

were kind of hugely excited when the Pope arrived in the -- deal.

And his message for peace is significant whilst in this part of the world. And we didn't mince his words about world leaders, who he says, are, you

know, ravaging the globe, and you mentioned Paul Biya, the President of Cameroon, who is hosting the Pope. This is actually the fourth Papel visit

he's hosted, which gives you a sense of how long he's been in power.

And Leo has also talked about corruption whilst he's been here in Africa, but I think the speech that Leo made today also has global resonance. And

of course, this trip to Africa has seen in face extraordinary criticism from President Trump and also Vice President J.D. Vance, particularly

center around Leo's strong stance against the war in Iran.

But the Pope really showing, whilst being here in Africa that he is going to continue speaking out. He's not going to be intimidated. And just one

final point about him being in his part of the world. Obviously, in Cameroon, there's a large number of Catholics that 30 percent of the

population are Catholic.

This is part of the world which is really central to the church that Leo leads. And he does seem very at home and happy to be in this part of the

world. And he has also visited the Africa -- visited Africa several times before in previous roles, so he seems very happy to be in Africa,

continuing to communicate his message of peace.

ASHER: All right, Christopher Lamb live for us there, thank you.

GOLODRYGA: All right, 18 people have lost their lives across Ukraine in one of Russia's largest drone attacks on the country this year.

ASHER: Ukraine says nearly 700 drones, along with dozens of missiles, were primarily targeting civilians. State Emergency Services say the strike set

off fires and cause damage in Kyiv and other major cities. The war looks no closer to ending despite a 32-hour ceasefire last week for the Orthodox

Easter holiday.

GOLODRYGA: Clare Sebastian takes a closer look at the attacks and the state of the war.

CLARE SEBASTIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: This was widespread multiple regions. Deaths were reported in four regions, but President Zelenskyy says that in

terms of the missiles, and in particular the ballistic missiles used, those were mostly targeted at Kyiv, where we saw major fires burning this

morning.

You can see them there, and four people reported killed, including a 12- year-old child who was pulled from the rubble of a building in Odessa as well. We saw a particularly deadly incident a residential building came

under drone attack overnight and then was hit by a missile in the morning. Nine people were reported killed there. And we have this clip from the

father of one of those victims speaking in Odessa today. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We were awakened after the strike, and we were suddenly buried under furniture. The ceilings were collapsing. We were trapped under

the furniture, and my wife and I tried to get out. She rushed to our son. I checked their pulses. I couldn't feel a pulse in either Vlad or his fiance.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SEBASTIAN: So, look, it was a terrifying night across many parts of Ukraine. But I want to draw your attention to those numbers that you put up

from the air force because of the 659 drones that were fired, according to Ukraine at the country, about 96 percent they managed to avert or shoot

down.

That statistic that ratio is a lot lower when it comes to missiles, only about 70 percent were shot down or averted, which means 13 missiles did get

through. And this is something that President Zelenskyy has spent this week warning about. He's been touring European capitals looking for more pledges

of air defense interceptors.

And this is now a global race, essentially, that he's in for these supplies, demand has surged because of the U.S. Israeli war with Iran. So,

he is again today warning about this, saying that he has urged his air force chief, essentially, to try to talk to partners to make sure that

these political pledges that Ukraine has been getting translate urgently into deliveries.

GOLODRYGA: Our thanks to Clare Sebastian for that report. Still to come on "One World", experts say declining oil supplies may soon affect world

travel.

[11:25:00]

We take a closer look at flight cancellations that may hit Europe in the near future.

ASHER: Plus, President Trump is taking his economy pep talk on the road, just as Americans face higher prices at the front details after that.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ASHER: All right. Welcome back to "One World". I'm Zain Asher.

GOLODRYGA: And I'm Bianna Golodryga. Here are some headlines we're watching today. Pakistan's influential military chief meets Iranian officials in

Tehran as the White House expresses optimism about the prospects for a deal with Iran. Pakistan is keeping communication channels open between the U.S.

and Iran as it tries to secure another round of talks.

ASHER: Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, held a phone call with the U.S. President after earlier declining to speak with Israeli Prime Minister

Benjamin Netanyahu. Donald Trump earlier posted on social media about a historic talk between the two leaders. Lebanese officials have said they

first won a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel.

[11:30:00]

GOLODRYGA: New reaction from the Pentagon, as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warns, the U.S. will continue to blockade Iranian ports and

increase its economic pressure unless Iranian leaders, quote, choose wisely. He also says that Iran is digging out missiles and launchers from

bombed facilities.

ASHER: And the Head of the International Energy Agency says the oil crisis in the Middle East could soon affect air travel in Europe. He warned jet

fuel and diesel shortages are likely within weeks, and that could trigger flight cancelations. Airlines have already dropped some flights as fuel

prices soar.

All right, let's go straight now to CNN's Vanessa Yurkevich. I mean, this is a pretty sort of dire circumstances that he's laying out here for Europe

and travel Vanessa?

VANESSA YURKEVICH, CNN BUSINESS AND POLITICS CORRESPONDENT: Yeah, a dire warning from the Head of the International Energy Agency, essentially saying that because of this war with Iran, the oil supply, and

the jet fuel supply, in particular, to Europe, is at a critical level.

And of course, we have been talking for seven weeks now about how there is no movement of vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, that critical passageway

for which 20 percent of the world's oil flows. But also, 20 percent of jet fuel flows through that narrow Strait.

And Europe is particularly reliant on jet fuel from that region, also heading into peak summer travel season in Europe. So here is what the Head

of the International Energy Agency Fatih Birol about where this is going.

He says, quote, Europe has maybe six weeks or so of jet fuel left. Soon, we will hear the news that some of the flights from city A to city B might be

canceled as a result of lack of jet fuel, and he's putting that timeline at six weeks.

Now, of course, this is a supply issue, but it's also a price issue for airlines. If you look at just where prices are over the last seven weeks,

they're up 40 percent so in the month of February, late February, airlines were paying 250, a gallon for jet fuel. Now they're paying 424, so that's a

significant jump.

So, what we've seen from airlines so far is, yes, they are having to cut flights. United saying that they are going to be cutting about 5 percent of

flights over the next six months. You have KLM saying that they're cutting about 1 percent of routes this summer, about 80 flights.

And then you have other ways that airlines are trying to offset these higher prices that are likely coming for consumers, so Jet Blue, Delta and

United as well, all saying that they're raising baggage fees to try to mitigate some of the higher prices that various travelers may be

uncomfortable with those air fares.

Now, of course, as it stands right now, this is the analysis from the International Energy Agency. We are in a ceasefire, but we know that

there's not a lot of movement happening in the Strait right now. So, as it stands now, this is the projection about jet fuel for Europe, a six-week

timeline, of course, guys, that could all change if there is some movement in talks between the United States and Iran.

But as it stands right now, really a dire warning about what airlines are up against. And of course, that just creates such a headache and such a

mess for travelers who are just trying to enjoy their summer, quite honestly, and are trying to just find affordability at a time when so many

people here in America but across the globe have been feeling the pinch of this war with Iran.

ASHER: Vanessa Yurkevich, thank you so much. All right, if a deal isn't reached soon to end the war in Iran, it appears the U.S. could step up

economic pressure on Tehran. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. is now willing to apply secondary sanctions on countries that buy

Iranian oil or take Tehran's money. He also discussed the recent rise in gas prices and when Americans might see relief.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SCOTT BESSENT, U.S. TREASURY SECRETARY: I'm optimistic that during the summer we will see gas with a three in front of it, sooner rather than

later. So, I've been meeting with a lot of my middle eastern counterparts, the finance ministers, and they all say that once the Straits are open,

they can start pumping again within one week.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GOLODRYGA: But, with concern mounting over the economic impact of the war, President Trump heads to Las Vegas later today to talk about the economy

and focus on his no tax on tips policy.

ASHER: For more on this, let's bring in Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist with B Riley Financial. Art, it's been a while good to see you. So, when

you hear the International Energy Agency Head Fatih Birol say that Europe has more or less six weeks of jet fuel left, I mean, that is very striking.

Just the fact that we've all heard that this is the worst energy crisis the world has ever faced. We've heard a number of superlatives.

[11:35:00]

When you have the energy agency head put it like that, that one of the world's, pretty much the world's sort of second richest economies after the

United States, will run out of jet fuel in about six weeks. Just give us your take on that Art.

ART HOGAN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, B. RILEY FINANCIAL: Yeah, just shows how devastating it is not having the flow of hydrocarbons through the

Strait of Hormuz and clearly, Europe being largely dependent on jet fuel coming out of the Strait. Clearly, they're in quite a bind, but so is

everyone else.

Think about the fact that the price of jet fuel is up north of 40 percent since this war started, and airlines are starting to cut flights. Spirit

Airlines here in the United States just went out of business because they just couldn't afford to operate any longer. And that's not going to fix

itself immediately.

Because once the Straits open up, it takes time to unclog the 800 tankers that are there, get them to the places they need to be, and get the

refineries back open and processing all this fuel. So, it's couldn't come at a worse time. This is a summer travel season. This is when everyone

wants to get out and about, and a lot of people are canceling trips.

The travel and leisure companies are talking about that as well because of the higher prices. So, deciding not to take the trip to Paris because of

the increase in air fares. And low and behold, you know, this happening at this point in time just points to how devastating this is and how much

control of the hydrocarbons globally the Strait of Hormuz has.

Another thing to think about, too is Taiwan Semiconductor, who just reported earnings today is 100 percent dependent on L&G, and they were down

to 11 days' worth of supply of L&G, and they make basically 80 percent of the semiconductors. They manufacture 80 percent of the semiconductors the

world.

Unless and until, they can find other sources of L&G which typically came from Qatar to fill up their fill their needs, we could be back in a place

like we were in COVID, where we just didn't have semiconductor manufacturing, so you can't buy things that take them, which is just about

everything, like your toaster and your car.

GOLODRYGA: So, Art it's not just the IEA that sounding the alarm. You've got the IMF that also issued its warning that if, even if, this war is

short lived, the damage to the global economy is already done. They've downgraded global growth to 3.1 percent this year, saying, if this war goes

on even longer, worst case scenario could go down to 2 percent.

Here in the U.S., we also have felt the effect. Inflation rose to 3.3 percent in March. That was the highest level in President Trump's second

term here, and yet, the markets hit a new high yesterday. I know the markets aren't reflective always of the economy, but just help explain this

dichotomy here, what are the markets seeing or not seeing that these economists, in fact, are?

HOGAN: That's such a great question. And that's one question that we get all the time. How can this be in? Right now, I tell you, the markets have

three things going for it. One is we've shifted the focus from the macro concerns about geopolitical concerns, concerned about this war, the ongoing

war in Ukraine, and to the micro which is the earnings reporting season, and that's been nothing short of spectacular thus far.

So, 80 percent of companies that report earnings have beaten their estimates, and the earnings estimates for the S&P 500 for the county or 26

during this six-week war have gotten higher, not lower. So, the fundamental backdrop still remains intact. The markets are also a forward pricing

mechanism that tend to try to predict the length or duration of this war.

And since we're in a ceasefire now, with talk that the ceasefire may be expanded out and perhaps there's an off ramp to this war, I think that the

markets are glomming on to that cautious optimism more than they're thinking about the day-to-day front-page news that we're all reading.

I think the third thing to contemplate too is we came into this very defensive so the market was very defensive in its posture, very de risked

before the war even started. Technology was down on the year. Had been down since last October, so the positioning by investors was very defensive, so

it was actually set up pretty well for this event to happen, and the worst of the sell off.

So, the S&P 500 was only about 9 percent. We recovered most of that. But the market's not celebrating what's happening today. The market is trying

to anticipate what may be happening in the next month or so.

ASHER: I want to talk about where oil prices will go if this war continues for another month or so. We know that some of the blocked oil is making it

out from the Gulf producing nations via pipelines to the Red Sea, the Gulf of Oman, but those pipelines are not going to be clearly enough to make up

for the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

You now have the U.S. getting involved with its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran threatening to retaliate by closing down parts of the Red

Sea. If this continues at this pace, this -- I speaking to another reporter about this, the sort of armed race of controlling maritime shipping, where

-- what will that mean for oil prices in a month from now?

HOGAN: In a month from now, if we're still talking about zero flow, or near to zero flow, out of the Strait of Hormuz.

[11:40:00]

The oil futures have predicted that that would be close to $125 to $250 for WTI and Brent, and that makes sense. Interestingly enough, the forward

month right now is the most expensive for oil trades and futures markets in the current month is the highest, and that slowly declines.

But just to tell you what the oil market thinks about this, it only goes down to about $85 out in December. So yes, the markets, the oil markets,

are trying to predict an end to this, but it's not going anywhere close to the $65 WTI was trading at before this war started.

So that's just, I think, a prelude to how slowly that oil price is going to come down, even if we do find an exit to this event and the Strait of

Hormuz opens back up, it's going to take a lot of time to repair a lot of damage oil field infrastructure. And it's certainly going to take a lot of

time to unclog that Strait with some 800 tankers waiting to unload and travel through.

ASHER: All right. Art Hogan, always good to see you. Thank you. All right, still to come, Europe is stepping up when it comes to young people safety

online with a new app. We'll talk about how it works just ahead.

[11:41:25]

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