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One World with Zain Asher
U.S. & Iran Trade New Strikes Amid Strait of Hormuz Tensions; Fragile U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Unraveling Over Strait of Hormuz Control; Deadly Bangkok Pub Fire Kills at Least 27, Dozens Injured; China Appears to Build a Full-scale Replica of U.S. Warship; Teen Football Player's Death Sparks Scrutiny & Speculation; Four Teams Remain in the Hunt for Football's Biggest Prize. Aired 11a-12p ET
Aired July 13, 2026 - 11:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[11:00:00]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ZAIN ASHER, CNN HOST, ONE WORLD: Donald Trump is very much against tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, that is, unless they're being paid, the United
States. "One World" starts right now. American strikes rock Iran, as the memorandum of understanding appears to be all but dead at this point.
Also ahead, battling the blaze, firefighters are working around the clock to contain devastating flames south of Paris. CNN is live for you at the
scene. And later, what happened and when we unpack the mystery surrounding the tragic death of American teenager Nolan Wells.
All right coming to you live from New York, I am Zain Asher. You are watching "One World". Nearly a month after the U.S. and Iran agreed on an
interim ceasefire, the war is not only intensifying; it's expanding as well. With Iran warning, the deal has now entered a crisis phase.
At the center of it all, a deepening standoff over the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. and Iran traded heavy air strikes once again on
Monday, following a weekend of attacks and counterattacks on both sides. CNN has geolocated video in south west Iran of strike damage at an airport.
The U.S. meantime is not only launching more strikes, it's hitting deeper inside Iran, while Tehran is targeting American military bases in the
region. And U.S. President Donald Trump is signaling the escalatory attacks won't stop any time soon. Here's what he told Fox News a short time ago.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: So, we're just going to hit him very hard, and we're going to keep the strait, and we'll
probably run it. We'll become the guardian of the strait. Maybe we'll call it the guardian angel of the strait, and we should be reimbursed for that.
When we do that, we're going to be reimbursed because the other nations are very wealthy. They're on our side, and we can't be expected to do that for
nothing, unlike we had for many years. You know --
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ASHER: CNN's Nada Bashir joins us live now from London. So, Nada, we are in a cycle. I mean, obviously, just in terms of what Trump is saying about the
Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. controlling it, that aside, we are in the cycle of escalation and then de-escalation, a temporary sort of ceasefire
that gets broken.
There's so such little trust on either side. How does the U.S. extract itself from this cycle that it finds itself in here, Nada?
NADA BASHIR, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, that is the key question, and it seems even the Trump Administration is unsure of what the correct course of
action really is at this point, or any sense of what the end goal is here? What we have seen, as you mentioned, in a sort of cycle now, is these
continued rounds of strikes by the U.S. on Iran.
We've seen at least four rounds of strikes now carried out by the United States over the last week. Again, a resumption of what has been a deepening
war between the two nations, this, according to the Trump Administration, in response to Iran firing on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
But Iran has also been quite clear in its statements as well, saying that it wants to maintain control over that key shipping route, that it wants to
see vessels passing through an authorized corridor along Iran's coast, as opposed to traveling through a separate corridor along Oman's coast.
Now, it does seem that there is a scramble to try to restart mediation efforts. At least that was the case on the weekend. We did see Oman's
Foreign Minister meeting with his Iranian counterpart in Oman, according to officials, trying to come to some sort of agreement on a mechanism for
joint control over the Strait of Hormuz.
That would allow four vessels to travel safely through the key shipping route, but that, according to an Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, has
come to nothing, saying this deal that had been discussed at some level was not achieved due to the overt and covert pressure of the United States on
Oman, and that pressure clearly is only ramping up.
As you mentioned, Zain, we are seeing those attacks not only now targeting parts of southern Iran close to the Strait of Hormuz, but they are
appearing to be moving deeper. And we have had some pretty stark warnings from Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson today. Take a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ESMAEIL BAQAEI, SPOKESPERSON FOR IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY: Seeking justice and avenging the blood of the martyred leader and every Iranian who was
injured or killed during the U.S. and Israeli military attacks is a fundamental principle and a demand shared by the public.
[11:05:00]
The state has a clear responsibility in this regard. The foreign ministry is part of this process. At the international level, we will use every
available legal and international mechanism, both to document these crimes and to pursue justice.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BASHIR: Now, in recent days, the U.S. Central Command has said that it has struck hundreds of targets. We saw at least 140 targets in Iran struck
overnight Saturday into Sunday, according to the Central Command, and of course, as you mentioned, Zain, those strikes are continuing today into the
afternoon local time in Iran.
But in response, Iran has also been carrying out attacks targeting Gulf nations, allies of the United States, and military infrastructure in the
region purportedly allied to the U.S. military as well. Just today, we have heard from Kuwait and Jordan again, saying that they have intercepted or
detected missiles coming from Iran.
The fear is that this will only continue, perhaps accelerate over the coming days, and that this may, in fact, detour all sorts of efforts at
this current point to try to mediate a resumption to that memorandum of understanding, which, of course, for those parties to the memorandum of
understanding.
The hope was that, that would lead to a lasting ceasefire agreement to be hammered out. But at this stage, it appears we are heading in a very
different direction.
ASHER: Nada Bashir, live for us there. Thank you so much. Well, let's bring in Nancy Youssef, who's a Staff Writer for "The Atlantic", joins us live
now from Washington. Welcome. So, just in terms of what this resumption of hostilities actually means for the Gulf nations.
Just give us your take on that, because a lot of these Gulf allies have also been experiencing strikes as well from Iran.
NANCY YOUSSEF, STAFF WRITER FOR "THE ATLANTIC": That's right. They've been the recipients of Iran's retaliation on U.S. strikes. What's interesting is
that in this latest round of strikes, we've seen Iran not target oil infrastructure, but target sites that it sees in support of the U.S.
military basing in those countries.
While Iran expanded its strike, as Nada, pointed out earlier, going as far as Jordan for the first time, I do think that there's an attempt to walk a
very fine line in which Iran is trying to signal to the United States that there's a cost to their ability to operate by striking at its control of
the Strait of Hormuz, but stopping short of hitting things that could lead to escalation.
The challenge is in trying to walk that fine line. There's a real risk of miscalculation. And these strikes, these back-and-forth strikes, I think
erode an already fragile trust between two sides to reach the kind of diplomatic solution that will ultimately be needed to resolve this.
ASHER: And when you think about the tussle and the back and forth attempts to control the Strait of Hormuz between the U.S. and Iran. I mean,
obviously, 20 percent a fifth of the world's global oil supply passes through the strait. You've got Trump now talking about that the U.S. I'm
reading here will be reimbursed at the rate of 20 percent on all cargo shipped for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety
and security.
Just in terms of the Strait of Hormuz, then you've got Iran controlling its portion. Just explain what that means for commercial shipping, and the
risks for any vessels trying to pass through the strait at this point in time.
YOUSSEF: Well, the important thing to note is that the way Iran is leveraging its control of the strait is not through a series of
sophisticated weapons, but fast boats, drones, and missiles, it is trying to instill a climate of fear such that ships don't want to go through. And
so, you're seeing the ships making a daily calculation almost about whether it's safe enough for them to transit the strait.
Further complicating this, the memorandum of understanding, which was supposed to sort of lay the groundwork such that there was clarity around
the strait has actually contributed to the confusion because in paragraph five it says that Iran will ensure safe passage through the 60-day period.
And I think the Iranians are interpreting that as they can decide and control the routes, but possibly in how those ships transit, where the
United States is looking for an agreement that return control the strait back to the February 27th level, the day before the war started.
I think what if you're a shipper at this point, what you are concluding is that this this has not been answered and won't be answered in the short
term, and that at the minimum, the idea of sort of free and open passage through the strait is no longer a possibility either because the Iranians
will not relinquish the leverage that they feel they've gained through the war or through Trump's comments that there'll be some expectation of
reimbursement down the road.
ASHER: I want to talk about what the sort of ramp up and escalation and also the back and forth over the Strait of Hormuz actually means for Europe
because they are certainly affected by it. We know that the Foreign Ministers of Germany, France, and Britain denounced the attacks on
commercial shipping.
They've issued strongly worded statements. But in terms of how Europe is affected directly, Europe imports roughly 12 to 14 percent of its LNG via
Qatar through the Strick of Hormuz. Obviously, for the entire world, not just Europe.
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But since we're talking about Europe, they are going to be affected continuously by the higher oil prices and the disruption in terms of the
energy markets. What can Europe actually do here beyond issuing strongly worded statements?
YOUSSEF: I think it's a very important question because I think it potentially affects the timing for how long at least the U.S. is willing to
engage in these strikes. You'll remember that when this ceasefire memorandum of understanding was reached last month. Trump in France said
that one reason that he was reaching it is that reserves were going to run low very, very soon, and that would affect world prices.
And he wasn't talking about just the U.S. which I think is at less risk, but that Europe itself would face a real economic crisis in terms of LNG,
because of shipping not going through, and then that was a key factor behind his decision to reach the initial agreement.
While oil has transited since that agreement, it certainly hasn't done so to the point that this can go on in perpetuity. Rather, I think it's going
to create a deadline of sorts in terms of how long the U.S. might be willing to continue these strikes because the price of oil, if it goes up
in Europe, it affects the U.S. market as well, which is something that the president has been watching very closely throughout this conflict.
The market has been a key factor in his decision making. And that becomes more so as we head into the summer and November's midterm elections. And
so, while it's not clear that Europe can do much in terms of aggressive military action, it can use that economic leverage to point out that what
happens in Europe economically has an economic impact on the United States as well.
ASHER: Nancy Youssef live for us there. Thank you so much. Right, Western Europe's deadly heat wave last month was the hottest June ever recorded.
That's according to the World Meteorological Organization. European Mortality Monitoring network reports that more than 10,000 excess deaths
during the record-breaking heat wave.
More than 9000 deaths were reported in those 65 and older, highlighting just how vulnerable the older community actually is in the face of extreme
heat. French firefighters are battling a huge blaze in a forest just south of Paris as the heat wave extends its deadly sweep across Europe.
More than 800 hectares of the Fontainebleau forest have gone up in flames. This, as firefighters or firefighting planes, rather, have been scooping up
water from the River Seine as part of efforts to get the blaze under control. Officials say there is a strong possibility firefighting effort
could take several days.
Melissa Bell joins us live now with the very latest. So, this is actually the third heat wave that France is battling in about three months or so,
really just underscoring how a lot of countries in Europe, not just France, but since we're talking about France, is facing this sort of double-edged
sword of both heat waves and also spreading wildfires as well.
MELISSA BELL, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: It is the third heat wave here in France in just a month and a half, and you can really see how
parched the earth is. Conditions very dry, even as north as here, Fontainebleau, which is about 60 kilometers to the southeast of Paris, with
this majestic ancient forest and the Chateau, one of the royal residences, even now being threatened.
We've seen 1000 hectares of the Fontainebleau forest now gone, and this wildfire is threatening to spread. The conditions are such that you've got
this extreme heat with a heat wave due to last for another few days. You've got fairly strong wind that's driving those flames.
Essentially, what happened we've been hearing from authorities is that last night this fire began. A second one just on the other side of the A6
motorway that leads south out of Paris, going sort of past Orly Airport. Those two fires are now one fire that is raging for now beyond control.
We've been watching over the course of the day these special planes collecting this water from the Seine River. It's never happened in this
part of France, in the Seine River, to try and put those flames out. Already, this season has seen more wildfires and more hectares lost to
wildfire than the entire season of 2025.
And that, of course, speaks to these conditions and the issues raised by these successive heat waves, the drought that has now ensued, and the fact
that as close as we are to Paris, this is a wildfire that is -- that the firefighters are finding it very difficult to get under control, Zain.
ASHER: All right, Melissa Bell live for us there. Thank you so much. Investigators are looking for answers after a huge fire tore through a pub
in Bangkok, killing at least 27 people and injuring dozens more. Officials say the fire was reported around midnight early Monday morning.
Many of the victims were found in the restrooms at the back of the bar. One survivor tells us she is lucky to be alive.
[11:15:00]
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
USA TADSREE, THAILAND PUB FIRE SURVIVOR: I went out with friends. There were about five of us. Two died and two survived along with me because we
went out to smoke a cigarette. Right after we went out to smoke, within a second, we looked at the wall and saw there was smoke.
Why was there smoke coming out from the top? So, we were about to run in to take a look. Before we could even get anywhere, it was like something was
pushed out, and there was a boom a very fast boom. We didn't have time to think, didn't have time to do anything at all.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ASHER: A registration spot was set up to gather information for those looking for their loved ones. CNN's Mike Valerio has more.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MIKE VALERIO, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): A huge fire tore through a popular pub in Bangkok early Monday morning, killing at least 27 people and
injuring dozens more -- news video shows violent flames raging as terrified patrons ran for their lives.
Thick smoke gushed out of the entrance, the fire engulfing the building in minutes. Firefighters from multiple Bangkok stations rushed to the scene,
taking about half an hour to bring the fire under control. But by then, the damage was devastating.
CHAKRIT KHONKOM, LEAD FIREFIGHTER: The fire was not that aggressive, but the smoke had engulfed 100 percent of the venue. Once we knew there were a
number of victims inside, we sent in a search and rescue squad and found that a lot of them were inside the toilet.
Most of them were trying to escape to the back because they saw that the flames were at the front.
SUKANYA WONGWONGWAL, FRIEND OF MISSING PERSON: My friend, who's a singer singing on stage, said at first they noticed the smell of something
burning. Then, a little after, they saw the ceiling was on fire.
VALERIO (voice-over): The blaze broke out around midnight at the Na Lat Phrao Brewery Restaurant, popular live music venue in Bangkok's Chatuchak
district. Footage of the aftermath shows scorched interiors, collapsed furniture, and blackened walls. Authorities are working to identify
victims, with many of their ID cards unable to be found.
Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul visited the site in the early hours and directed agencies to assist victims' families. Investigators are now
working to determine the cause of one of the deadliest pub fires -- been seen in recent years. Mike Valerio, CNN.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ASHER: All right. Still to come, a striking image of what experts say as a full-scale replica of an American warship has appeared in a remote desert
in China. We'll take a look when we come back. Plus, a closer look at how the Trump Administration has drastically reshaped a decades long U.S.
program for refugees.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
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ASHER: All right, we are learning of yet another fatal I.C.E.-involved shooting, this time in Maine. A state official says it happened in
Biddeford, which is south of Portland. The Maine State Police and the Department of Public Safety are now on the scene gathering details.
This shooting comes, as I'm sure you'll remember, just days after a federal immigration officer fatally shot a Mexican immigrant during a traffic stop
in Houston, and that sparked protests as well. CNN has reached out to Immigration and Customs Enforcement and the Department of Homeland Security
for comment.
Right, just weeks into his second term, President Trump announced nearly all refugees admitted to the U.S. would be white South Africans. 18 months
later, more than 7,700 Afrikaners have been admitted. The rush to favor one group over nearly all others stunned some Korea officials early on, and has
sparked a lawsuit from rights groups.
For more details on this, let's bring in Jennifer Hansler. Coming to you live from the State Department. So, we've talked about this sort of
controversial decision by the Trump Administration to allow mostly white South Africans into the country under the refugee program, claiming that
they've been discriminated against.
We've talked about this quite a bit on this program, but just talk to us about the backstory here.
JENNIFER HANSLER, CNN SENIOR NATIONAL SECURITY REPORTER: Well, Zain, Priscilla Alvarez and I spoke to more than a dozen people who are familiar
with this program, and they described what was an absolute scramble to set up this processing of these Afrikaners as quote, refugees for the Trump
Administration.
And how this had caught the career staff completely off guard when the president signed this executive order back in February of 2025. They said
they were caught so off guard, for example, that they weren't exactly clear on who would fit the definition of who should be processed as a refugee.
They said the understanding was that this was to be prioritized for those white Afrikaners, however, they ultimately decided on a definition that
extended to other racial minorities within South Africa. Of course, the majority of those who have been resettled under this program have been
those white South Africans.
Now, Zain, they also described just this big push by the administration that this was a top priority, not only to resettle this group of
individuals, but also to resettle them very quickly. One former official described to me their understanding was that if someone was processed and
approved, that they should be on a plane in the coming days.
However, what people were encountering was this kind of unusual situation where several of the people who had been approved for this program were
asking for extensions. They weren't ready to leave right away. They needed to deal with, for example, selling their houses.
They wanted to see their children graduate. This is not something that typically happens with populations that typically qualify for the refugee
programs, who are often in refugee camps. They are fleeing war and other sorts of strife. You would not typically see people asking for an extension
to stay in the country where they say they are facing persecution.
We also heard about a scramble to set up processing within the country within South Africa to do interviews and to process these potential refugee
applicants. You might recall last December there was a spat between the South African government and the State Department when they detained
briefly some U.S. government officials who were involved in this process.
The State Department said that this was more than a spat, and they said this just underscores the difficulties that are facing some of these South
Africans. You may also recall, Zain, that the Trump Administration put on this big show when they had that first group of South Africans coming to
the United States last year.
And what we heard from our sources is this was a very unusual and costly event to have a chartered plane that was bringing this group of around 60
people to the United States. This was an event that the Deputy Secretary of State spoke at. One source described this being as nowhere close to filling
that plane.
That this is not something that you would typically see. Another said, you know, typically you would not be forcing refugees to come to fit a
particular photo op timeline. You would never commit to them coming unless you knew that they were able to be there on a specific date.
So, there is a lot of unusual things at play when it comes to the resettling of this Afrikaner program. As one source put it to us, they said
that they were building the plane as they were flying it, Zain.
ASHER: Jennifer, you bring up so many important points. I mean, especially this idea that if people are truly fleeing persecution or if their lives
are at risk, they're not going to say, oh, you know what? Can we stay a little bit longer because we want to watch our children graduate?
Can we stay a little bit longer because we want to sell our homes? That is not usually what happens if you are fleeing a war zone. And so, just talk
to us a bit more about how the administration justifies this.
[11:25:00]
HANSLER: Well, Zain, what we have heard from the administration over and over again is they claim that there is persecution of Afrikaners within
South Africa by the South African government. And that is reason for this group to be prioritized for refugee resettlement over everyone else who has
now seen that opportunity taken away.
The Trump Administration has frozen refugee resettlement for basically everyone else in the entire world, except for this specific carved-out
program. However, they have continued to say that this is a group that is fleeing persecution in South Africa. We have not been able to substantiate
overall that it is only the white South Africans there.
There is crime across the board in the country, the Trump Administration. When we asked them for comment on this story, they said they were still
committed to resettling this group that they say was persecuted by the South African government.
ASHER: Jennifer Hansler, live for us there. Thank you so much. Right, gasoline prices were headed down the right road for a while. Now it looks
as though they've taken a wrong turn. We'll look at recent rises in oil prices after the break. Also ahead, the mysterious death of an American
teenager off the coast of a remote island in Mississippi is sparking scrutiny and speculation. We'll have some details ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ASHER: Welcome back to "One World". I'm Zain Asher from New York. Here are some of the international headlines we are watching for you today. U.S.
President Donald Trump announced he is reinstating a blockade of Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
It comes as both Washington and Tehran continue to exchange fire after escalatory attacks and counter attacks over the weekend. The Strait of
Hormuz and who has control of that vital waterway is at the center of it all. Firefighters in France are turning to the River Seine to help battle a
blaze south of Paris.
The huge wildfire has made its way into the Fontainebleau forest, where it has already destroyed at least 800 hectares.
[11:30:00]
In Bangkok, at least 27 people are dead and dozens injured after a fire broke out at a pub early Monday morning. Witnesses say they saw smoke
coming out of a circuit breaker, then heard an explosion shortly after. The deadly blaze is now under investigation. Fans are mourning the loss of
legendary actor Sam Neill.
He died in Australia on Monday, only three months after revealing he was cancer-free. The New Zealand actor starred in dozens of films and TV series
over his five-decade career, though he will forever be remembered for the role of Dr. Alan Grant in "Jurassic Park". Neill was 78.
All right. Oil prices are on the rise after the U.S. and Iran traded new rounds of strikes overnight. It ignited new supply fears, just in terms of
fears of disruption, as the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has shrunk by half from recent weeks, all while casting doubt on the fragile ceasefire.
CNN Senior Business Reporter David Goldman joins us live now. So, just in terms of where oil prices are headed. I mean, we're stuck in this cycle, as
I was saying to Nada Bashir earlier in the show, that you know we have escalation and then de-escalation, a memorandum of understanding, a little
bit of peace, and then more strikes again.
Plus, you have both sides really vying for control of the Strait of Hormuz that is at the center of it all, David.
DAVID GOLDMAN, CNN BUSINESS SENIOR REPORTER: Yeah, markets don't know what to make of all of that because of those shifting dynamics. We're on a
little bit of a teeter-totter right now. So, I mean, $79 almost $80, that is the highest that we've seen in quite a few days.
But remember, we were close to around $71 at the beginning of the month, and $112 in the middle of May.
So, we have certainly come down a lot from the recent peak. We're a little bit above where we were, but we're pretty close to the lows that we were
seeing. But this is what they're reacting to today. President Trump saying that all traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, all cargo is going to be
subject to a 20 percent charge from the United States, which he says is going to become the guardian of the Strait of Hormuz.
What does that mean? Well, there are two shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz. There's the one that the U.N. has designated as an emergency
escape around the Coast of Oman, and then there's the one that Iran wants everyone to use, and that is around the Coast of Iran, because this one
allows Iran to register ships potentially for the purpose of charging tolls when the memorandum of understanding expires after 60 days.
So, the problem is, is that Iran started firing on ships using this lane, and now there is this tit for tat strike. So, what has that done to gas
prices? Well, they have gone up. In fact, we have now gone up to 3.87. We were down to 3.80 just a week ago. Now, again, for context, this was $4.56
at the peak.
So certainly, we've come down a long way, but we are still significantly higher than the $2.98 that we had before the war, gives you a sense of
where we are, kind of stuck in the middle there. So, what's going on in the strait right now? Well, there were 57 crossings over the course of the
weekend, but they are all going out.
Almost nothing is coming into the strait. Zero along that Omanian coast that I was telling you about. We need those to come in and get the oil and
bring it out. If there's nothing going in, then there's nothing that eventually can come out. And Iran is the one that's really starting to
struggle because they have gotten a decent amount, 1.3 million barrels per day, but that is down 50 percent from what it was just at the end of last
month.
So, this new blockade, if the U.S. actually imposes it could really hurt Iran's ability to get out of the strait, Zain, this is as you said a lot
for markets to process.
ASHER: Absolutely, David Goldman --
GOLDMAN: A lot for me.
ASHER: And me too, by the way.
GOLDMAN: Head exploding.
ASHER: David Goldman, always good to see you. Thank you so much.
GOLDMAN: You too. Thank you so much.
ASHER: Right, let's dig deeper into these rising gas prices. We're joined now by Justin. Justin, it has been so long. I'm so happy, always happy to
have you on the show. It's been a while. Justin Wolfers is Professor of Public Policy and Economics at the University of Michigan.
So, just in terms, just to follow on from what David was saying there, I mean, you have a situation whereby both the U.S. and Iran are vying for
control over the Strait of Hormuz. You have commercial shipping vessels having to really assess the damage and the sort of dangers rather of
traveling through the strait.
A lot of people are going to think it's not worth it. We don't necessarily know if the U.S. can actually have any control over the Strait of Hormuz or
charge these tolls or keep ships safe.
[11:35:00]
I mean, all of that is up in the air at this point. In the meantime, where do you see oil prices headed, Justin?
JUSTIN WOLFERS, PROFESSOR OF PUBLIC POLICY & ECONOMICS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN: Well, really, the question is how long does the strait stay
closed for, and is it closed? Like you know, you wake up one day, it's open. You wake up the next day, it's closed, open, closed.
It's sort of like my dog likes to come into my house and out of my house, so I'm always opening and closing the door. That feels like the Strait of
Hormuz right now. But he's a good dog. The real problem, though, this is serious, Zain. You know, the real problem is if people can't be sure that
the door is going to remain open, they're not going to be willing to send ships up.
And so, the longer that we get these supply disruptions, the more we're going to see oil start to shoot back up towards $100 again. So, look, a
couple of things are true at the same time. Oil's not as high as it was, so things got better. But when I say things got better, oil is definitely a
lot higher than it would have been if we hadn't have gone to war with Iran.
And if things continue to worsen, if there's more escalation, you can expect oil prices to go back up again.
ASHER: But we're still a lot lower than the highs we really saw over $100 a barrel right when the war started.
WOLFERS: Yeah.
ASHER: Explain that to us.
WOLFERS: Well, I think the fear there was far greater. So actually, there's several issues there going on. One, there's a timing issue, which is if you
need oil today, the oil has to have left the Middle East several weeks ago, and so just if there's not much oil right now, there's not much going on.
So, what I tend to do instead is look at futures prices, which smooth through that, and they still do show exactly what you just said, Zain,
which is, oil markets feel better about where things are now than when they were at the worst of the worst. Now, right there's the answer for you.
When things were even more dramatic, when it looked like we might take out some of the local oil capacity, whether it was shipping or extraction, when
it was on the table that you might get further damage through the region and so on. Then, of course, markets gas. They're like, oh my goodness,
could this get much worse?
Many of those worst-case scenarios still remain a possibility. They've just become something less of a probability.
ASHER: When it comes to China, I mean, China does have a lot of power over the oil. I mean, I think through this story, we've learned so much about
how much oil, just in terms of the stockpile of oil that China is really sitting on. They are the world's largest importer of oil.
They have also a lot of oil saved up. They can affect oil prices depending on how much they choose to buy right now, Justin?
WOLFERS: Yes, and so far, actually, China has played something of a constructive role, choosing to pull back on their purchases of oil, which
has meant there's more for the rest of us to go around. That was a moment of kindness, and you can't expect these moments of kindness to continue for
forever.
The reality of the world oil market is, it's an unusually sensitive market, and it's for a very simple reason, which is basically people need oil, and
if there's less oil to go around, then in order to get people to pull back, the price would have to go up an enormous amount for people, for instance,
to stop driving to work.
And so, if any country were to pull back on its production of oil, the United States or China were to pull back on its demand, or if we'd seen
this with the OPEC oil shocks in the 1970s and subsequently, if any of the Middle East countries were to pull back on how much they were willing to
send into the world market, it has very, very dramatic effects.
ASHER: And just in terms of the United States, I mean, this is something that we've tackled quite a bit on this show. But just if you could explain
this to our international audience, United States is the world's largest oil producer. Only about 8 percent or so of the oil that is imported comes
from the Middle East.
But the energy market across the world is so interconnected that there are dramatic effects of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on oil prices in
this country, where you and I are in the United States. Explain that dynamic to our international audience.
WOLFERS: Yeah, it can definitely break your brain a bit if you haven't studied international economics. So let me just give you a very simple way
of thinking about it, which is, let's say, Zain, that you happen to own an oil drilling company in Texas. On today, you've got the option of selling
it to someone in Europe for $74 that what the global price currently is.
As a result of that, you're not going to sell it to an American for $60. In fact, you're going to demand that the American spends nearly as offers a
price nearly as much as your -- you could get in Europe. Now, the reason Europeans are willing to pay $74 for oil right now is there's not much oil
over there, which is a long way of saying the price of oil is set in global markets.
So, the American price depends on what happens to global supply and global demand. The second thing that can break your brain is that America
basically produces as much oil as it consumes.
[11:40:00]
And so, you might think, well, if the price went up, America as a whole, it makes a bunch, it uses a bunch, things like that would come out on average.
And actually, for the country as a whole, that's true, but it doesn't feel that way. And it doesn't feel that way because what happens is when the gas
price is higher, costs me more money to fill up at the tank.
But the folks who hold stock in oil companies, those oil companies are now selling it for a whole lot more, and they're a whole lot more profitable.
On aggregate, they offset, but at the level of the individual household, it can feel pretty painful.
ASHER: Yeah, you can say that again. Justin Wolfers, live for us there. Thank you so much. Always good to see you. Right, China could be signaling
to the U.S. that it remains combat ready amid simmering tensions over Taiwan. New satellite images show what appears to be a full-scale replica
of a U.S. warship in the remote Chinese desert. CNN's Will Ripley reports from Taipei.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
WILL RIPLEY, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): At first, it looks like any American warship at sea. Then you notice the sand. More
than 1000 miles from the nearest coastline, hundreds of miles from any major city deep inside the western Chinese desert, what appears to be a
full-scale mock-up of a U.S. Navy Arleigh Burke-class destroyer.
Look at its side by side with the USS Fitzgerald. The resemblance is striking. Both are around 510 feet long. At the back, the helicopter flight
deck used to launch and recover naval helicopters. Next are the vertical launch systems, cells used to fire guided munitions like the Tomahawk
cruise missile, heavily used in the conflict with Iran.
This is the bridge and command area where navigation, communications, and combat operations are controlled. At the front is the deck gun, used for
surface targets, air threats, and shore bombardment. Together, the details suggest a carefully built, full-scale replica of one of America's main
guided missile destroyers, workhorses of the U.S. Navy fleet, more than 70 sailing in oceans around the world.
If conflict ever erupts over Taiwan, these destroyers would likely be among the first U.S. warships deployed. Hans Su analyzes China's military for
Taiwan's Top Defense Research Institute.
RIPLEY: Why would China go through all the effort and expense to build this?
HANS SU, DIRECTOR OF INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL DEFENSE & SECURITY RESEARCH: The Chinese they try to prepare everything from A to Z. The Chinese
military has ballistic missiles that can attack from high angles and cruise missiles that can attack horizontally, so they're trying to combine both
and enhance their anti-access and area denial capability.
RIPLEY (voice-over): He says they're trying to improve the accuracy of China's newest hypersonic anti-ship missiles displayed at Beijing's
military parade last year. The 3D replica is covered with antennas designed to simulate the radar signature of an American warship, helping China
detect, identify, and perhaps target the real thing.
It's located in Xinjiang, the same area where the People's Liberation Army built 2D flat mock-ups of U.S. aircraft carriers and destroyers several
years ago, even putting them on tracks. Analysts say to move at the speed of actual ships.
RIPLEY: Have they ever built a 3D mock-up before?
JOSEPH WEN, OSINT RESEARCHER AT TAIWAN INSPIRATION ASSOCIATION: It's first time.
RIPLEY (voice-over): Open-source intelligence analyst Joseph Wen first spotted the mock-up when it was still under construction about a month ago.
WEN: I do think this is quite surprising. The scale of the construction is really massive.
RIPLEY: What message are they trying to send by building this?
WEN: The message that they are sending is China is always preparing for war.
RIPLEY (voice-over): Under Leader Xi Jinping, China has poured billions into modernizing its military, from aircraft carriers and nuclear weapons
to artificial intelligence. The PLA has also long trained using mock-ups of everything from U.S. military assets to Taiwan's presidential office.
On China's tightly controlled social media, censors are allowing comments like these. The U.S. military's premier escort warships, long regarded as a
source of pride, have now become designated targets for Chinese missiles. They are nothing more than targets sitting in the desert, waiting to be
hit.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[11:45:00]
ASHER: Right, investigators are working to piece together the final hours of an American teenager's life. The 18-year-old football player left on a
July 4th boating trip with friends to an uninhabited island off the coast of Mississippi. His friends returned, but he did not.
His body was found in the water two days later. CNN's Ryan Young has the story.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CHRISTINE WONSLEY, NOLAN WELLS' MOTHER: We just want to know what happened and why our baby didn't come home.
RYAN YOUNG, CNN SENIOR U.S. NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The family of Nolan Wells is pleading for answers in a case rife with speculation,
grief, and racial overtones.
WONSLEY: Nolan Wells is the kindest soul. He never met a stranger. He loved everybody.
ELMORE WONSLEY, NOLAN WELLS' FATHER: Nolan is a person with a big heart.
YOUNG (voice-over): Details remain elusive about how the beloved 18-year- old college football player who died during a Fourth of July boat celebration on Horn Island off the coast of Mississippi. His friends
returned to the dock without him, authorities said. The Jackson County Sheriff says there's an active investigation, but so far, no foul play
suspected.
JOHN LEDBETTER, SHERIFF OF JACKSON COUNTY AT MISSISSIPPI: Still waiting on the truth to come out.
YOUNG (voice-over): The sheriff has not elaborated on how Wells became separated from his friends or why he didn't have his cell phone. Wells'
family's attorneys speculate that Nolan's cell phone was returned with deleted text messages and that the teen's keys were also left behind with
his friend.
WONSLEY: Anyone who's ever been around Nolan will tell you at social gatherings, he's taking videos, he's taking pictures. That's why we feel
that things may have been deleted, was because the fact that there was nothing in either one of his accounts.
LEDBETTER: We do not have the cell phone that they speak of, and we've never had the cell phone. But it is, to my understanding, that we requested
the cell phone for an extraction.
YOUNG (voice-over): Sheriff Ledbetter says one of the three friends who was on the boat with Wells was the first to report him missing around 11:00
p.m. that night. Mississippi investigators are exploring social media reports of an alleged altercation or argument that may have involved Wells,
the only black man in his friend's group.
LEDBETTER: We're going to work this investigation thoroughly and professionally.
YOUNG (voice-over): The Jackson County Coroner told CNN there were no immediate signs of physical injury and that his body was found face down in
the water close to the shoreline. The coroner has completed Wells' autopsy, but an official cause of death has yet to be determined, as they are still
waiting for the results of tests, including a toxicology report.
Authorities also believe strong rip currents in the area could have potentially posed a risk.
LEDBETTER: We're working towards the same goal as the family. We want a thorough investigation, and that's what we're going to continue to do until
we arrive at the answers that the family deserves.
YOUNG (on camera): The internet has been talking a lot about this story and is also giving the family a groundswell of support. Now that Benjamin Crump
and his team have stepped in, it's only further amplifying what the family feels, which is they want to know a timeline of exactly what happened.
How could he leave his phone behind? There are so many unanswered questions that make people feel uneasy about this case, and hopefully soon we'll get
some more of those answers.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[11:50:00]
ASHER: Right, a little more than 24 hours from now, the World Cup semi- finals kick off. Only four teams remain. France will put their star-studded offense to test against the Spanish team that only allowed one goal in the
tournament so far on Wednesday, defending champions Argentina will have to get past Three Lions of England.
When Cape Verde made their World Cup debut this year, the experts didn't expect much from the tiny African island nation. Then something magical
happened. The team's determination and courage turned the naysayers into fans, and the players into heroes. "World Sport's" Patrick Snell takes a
look at the future of football in Cape Verde.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
PATRICK SNELL, CNN WORLD SPORT (voice-over): Cape Verde's football team have gained unexpected fame around the globe after emerging as a surprise
fan favorite at the World Cup. With a population of less than 600,000 people, they became the smallest nation ever to reach the knockout round of
the tournament.
But their fairy tale run ended after a thrilling 3-2 defeat during extra time to reigning champions Argentina. This was Cape Verde's World Cup
debut, though they have long been preparing for their chance. The country's football association has run youth development programs for years, often
funded by FIFA.
SILVERIA NEDIO, HEAD COACH OF CAPE VERDE WOMEN'S NATIONAL FOOTBALL TEAM: The aim of football is, first of all, to form good citizens, to keep them
away from trouble with the law through football, the main passion for every child in Cape Verde. And that's why we decided to turn the project into a
football training school.
SNELL (voice-over): FIFA says it's invested more than 5.7 million dollars into the country across 17 FIFA forward projects. The investments have
included new artificial playing fields and stadium upgrades, along with national team development programs. A couple of the Blue Sharks who played
on the history-making World Cup team trained with the program.
MARIO SEMEDO, PRESIDENT OF CAPE VERDEAN FOOTBALL FEDERATION: Yes, I believe we have indeed made real investments. Take our own example. We have four
players in the national team who received all their training here at the Federation's training center through the Bola Pra Frente program. This
center is clear proof that investing in training is a priority for us.
SNELL (voice-over): If Cape Verde's success at the World Cup shows anything, it has the talent and an enthusiastic fan base.
[11:55:00]
One of the biggest obstacles so far has been money, but the country is expected to receive a payout of over 20 million dollars for reaching a
round of 32, which could be a game changer for its football program.
NEDIO: The future of football in Cape Verde, both women's and men's, is strong. It is big. From this World Cup moment, things can change, not only
in football, in people, or in country, but in the whole structure.
SNELL (voice-over): Patrick Snell, CNN.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ASHER: Right, stay with CNN. My colleague Bianna Golodryga will join me for more "One World" after this short break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
END
