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Prism
Obama Expected To Announce Troop Surge To Afghanistan; Lay Out Strategy For Winning The War
Aired December 01, 2009 - 12:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
STAN GRANT, CNN INT'L. ANCHOR, PRISM (voice over): As the U.S. president gets set to make his case for sending more American troops into Afghanistan, he's asking NATO to do the same. In our "Prism Segment" we'll look at the role of the military alliance.
Iran says legal action may be the next step if the international community continues to infringe on its nuclear rights.
And Egyptian markets recorded record losses Monday but unlike the sand castles of the Gulf, Egypt is on the rise.
(On camera): From CNN Abu Dhabi in United Arab Emirates, this is PRISM, where we take a story, put it under the prism and look at it from multiple perspectives. I'm Stan Grant.
U.S. President Barack Obama is ready to unveil his new strategy for Afghanistan. His long-awaited speech is just eight hours away now. White House officials tell CNN he will order 30,000 more troops and there will be no more dithering. Officials say Mr. Obama is accelerating the plan. He wants the forces on the ground within the next six months. And officials also tell CNN the president will provide some sort of time frame for getting out of Afghanistan.
Mr. Obama has already briefed Afghan President Hamid Karzai and several other world leaders about his plan, by phone and video conference.
More troops is just part of what Mr. Obama has said would be his bid for an end game, after eight years of war. Turning security over to the Afghan government is the ultimate goal, but as Michael Ware explains there are many obstacles to success lurking in Afghanistan.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MICHAEL WARE, CNN INT'L. CORRESPONDENT (voice over): These American soldiers fight for their lives in Afghanistan, besieged repeatedly by Taliban assaults, roadside bombs and ambush, with the American death toll ever rising.
But for America to ultimately win in Afghanistan, it must overcome more than just the Taliban insurgents, for Afghanistan is a war being waged within many wars, some overt, some not.
It is a battlefield for a host of competing interests. A proxy war between Pakistan and India, competition for influence from Iran and even China, rivalries waged not just with bombs and bullets, but with billions in aid and reconstruction projects, with spies, and with trade. And the United States is mired in the middle of them all. Among American's adversaries foremost is the Afghan Taliban. Ousted from government in 2001 but the U.S. invasion, its fighters and commanders have been launching their attacks for eight years from safe havens just across the Pakistani border from valleys like these. Though Pakistan is technically an American alley it suits Pakistan's strategic interests to allow these Afghan fighters to shelter along its borders.
For there are two Talibans: One, Afghan, fighting the Americans; and one, Pakistani, an entirely different Taliban, it's aim to overthrow the Pakistani government. The Pakistani military has taken the fight to the homegrown Taliban, but does little to disrupt the Afghan Taliban. Why? The answer put simply is because of India. For decades Pakistan and India have been bitter rivals, fighting wars and arguing over disputed borders. For both Afghanistan is just yet another battlefield in which to fight.
India backs the Afghan government and the forces that had fought against the Taliban. Meanwhile, elements in the Pakistani government tacitly support the Afghans fighting against that same Afghan government.
This carnage, perhaps the most obvious sign of that friction; it is the Indian embassy in Kabul, ravaged by a massive bombing last year. A bombing U.S. intelligence claims was helped by Pakistan's spy agency.
Then, there is Iran, willing to help anyone who would fight against America, it's role adding yet another layer to an already complicated battleground. This Afghan army general commands all Afghan forces in the country's south. And he says the Iranians are supplying the Taliban.
"Unfortunately," he says, "we find many weapons and explosives with Iranian markings." And he claims, "We have much evidence that small pockets of Afghan insurgents are being trained in Iran and being deployed to fight against U.S. troops."
As President Obama unveils his new strategy for America's war in Afghanistan, he must contend with all of this, an ever-strong Taliban, his nuclear armed allies, India and Pakistan, vying with each other, as well as the subtle hand of Iran. None of which bodes for a quick, nor easy victory in what has become Obama's war. Michael Ware, CNN, New York.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GRANT: In our "Prism Segment" this evening we examine NATO's role in the war in Afghanistan. First, a brief overview.
NATO forces are there as part of U.N. Security Council resolutions. Intended to help stabilize the country and help train the Afghan national army; 43 nations are contributing troops, making up just under half the military force in Afghanistan. NATO says that while numbers fluctuate, there are currently just over 71,000 International Security Assistance Forces, or ISAF troops in the country.
U.S. General Stanley McChrystal is the commanding general of NATO and U.S. forces. The troops are broken down into 26 provincial reconstruction teams.
After the U.S., Britain has the largest contingent of Allied troops in Afghanistan. In a speech to parliament Monday, Prime Minister Gordon Brown confirmed an additional 500 soldiers will be sent immediately. That will push British troop strength to 9,500.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GORDON BROWN, PRIME MINISTER OF BRITAIN: This is the considered view of the 43-nation coalition, which is a unique force of NATO and non-NATO members, lead by the United States of American, supported by clear United Nations resolutions and today our shared purpose is the same as in 2001, to deny Al Qaeda space to operate, but our approach to achieving this has now to be different.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GRANT: Poland, which has 2,000 troops in country, is leaning toward increasing that number. Germany recently reaffirmed its commitment in Afghanistan for another year, but is not ready to commit new troops. And the subject was discussed between the U.S. and Australian leaders at the White House. Other NATO countries are being asked to contribute to a troops surge by the organization's secretary-general.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERS FOGH RASMUSSEN, NATO SECRETARY GENERAL: The fact is that the non-U.S. troop contributing countries have doubled their contributions to our mission to Afghanistan during the last 20 months.
So, the fact is that there is a strong feeling of solidarity within out lines and I feel confidence that this principle of solidarity will continue to be the basis of our operation in Afghanistan.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GRANT: Rasmussen would not say how many additional troops he expected to be pledged. Details could come out Thursday at a NATO meeting in Brussels.
Now, as we heard on this program yesterday, some Afghans oppose a surge of U.S. troops, other support it. So, we asked some Kabul residents how they feel about NATO or ISAF troops in their country.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ALI MOHAMMAD ALI, ARTIST (through translator): The relative peace and security in Afghanistan is maintained by ISAF and we thank them. Afghans could not bring security due to the dispute among the different factions. And this relative security is brought and sustained by ISAF. SAYED TAMIMULLAH, STUDENT: All of our young people are optimistic about their sending NATO troops, because they bring us more peace, and they can get better security. But I think, and my idea, my notion, that NATO or foreign forces focus on arrangements our national army, or our national army is better than foreign forces.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GRANT: The word, there, from people on the streets of Kabul.
Now, we want to bring in someone with the unique perspective on the role of NATO in Afghanistan. General George Joulwan joins us from Washington. He commanded NATO forces from 1993 to 1997.
General, U.S. President Obama, probably looking for NATO to contribute another 10,000, perhaps, troops with France reluctant, with Germany reluctant, where will he get those numbers from?
GEN. GEORGE JOULWAN, U.S. ARMY (RET.): I think what you are going to see, once the president gives his speech tonight, NATO really rallying around that. I expect the 28-nations of NATO, when they meet after the president's speech, and particularly, with the foreign ministers meeting this week, you are going to see a surge of solidarity here. I'm not sure how many of the 28, or what the number will be, but I think it will be somewhere between 5,000, or 7,000 or 8,000 troops, additional troops that will be pledged by NATO for the effort in Afghanistan.
GRANT: General, it is not just the troops, it is what they do when they actually get there. Let's take a look at what NATO's terms of engagement are. It is to assist the Afghanistan government, exercise and extend its power throughout the country, but this is a government with big credibility problems. Should those terms of engagement change? Should NATO look at trying to develop other forms of support?
JOULWAN: Well, I think what - and I'm not sure exactly what will be in the speech tonight, but I think what you are going to see, as these stable areas around cities and villages, I think you are going to see the effort going more toward the provinces, there are 34 provinces. Some of them are very stable. And you will see within those provinces, each has a governor, you are going to see force develop at that level, under the governor's leadership and control. And I think that will make it more manageable. As you get secure provinces or villages, say Azari Sharif (ph), or down around Kandahar, and try to build upon that. And so, it will be, I think, a step-by-step procedure. And if you have success and you reinforce success. So the clarity here, I think is at what level that you do this at, and that will be extremely important.
And by the way, NATO is providing excellent training for the police in Afghanistan and that is another issue that needs to be considered.
GRANT: Yes, and that is one of the things President Obama is going to look at. The other thing is that he has stressed is that he wants to finish this. He doesn't want it dragging on for another eight or nine years. But the difficulty is, the risk is, that he gets bogged down, yet again, in fighting the Taliban. Already more troops have been sent to Afghanistan and it hasn't -it hasn't defeated the Taliban.
JOULWAN: Well, we have a new strategy now. I don't want to call it counter-insurgency, or counter-terrorism, it is a new strategy that combines a little of both, but it is focused on trying to get the Afghanistan military and police and legitimacy within the government, try to get those forces stood up, in a way, that we could measure it in six months, in a year, in a year and a half, in two years, and to try to measure progress. And I think that is the intent here. Not for any very long - very long drawn out commitment, but to try to get the security forces where they can provide for their own security and sovereignty. And then, a lot of the inner - of the international agencies, and NGOs that build capacity within the government, once you have a stable environment can come in and I think provide the growth that is needed within the government of Afghanistan.
GRANT: General, very, very short time left. But what you have outlined there doesn't sound as if it is going to be a short-term or easy strategy. Give us some sense of how long you think this is going to play out?
JOULWAN: I think the measures of effectiveness that will begin almost immediately. And I think some decisions, then, will be made. If it isn't working in two years, I think that will be a decision for him that the president and NATO will have to make about how long we continue it. But remember now, this is as much political and economic as it is military. We have talked a lot about 30,000 or 40,000 troops. We haven't talked much about the political and economic and all of those other agencies that need to make stability and peace work. So, it is that combination of building a team, here, that I think is important. And I don't think it is open-ended. It is going to take a long time to finally get to where you want to go. But for troops, I think we'll know in a couple of years whether it is working or not.
GRANT: Huh. General, appreciate your insights. General George Joulwan, former NATO supreme allied commander. Thank you very much.
JOULWAN: Thank you.
GRANT: And we want to hear from you. Do you think NATO should commit more troops to Afghanistan? Send us your thoughts, there, to my Twitter account. That is StanGrantCNN.
Well, stay with CNN for special coverage leading into U.S. President Barack Obama's address on Afghanistan. It all begins Wednesday at 4:00 in the morning, Abu Dhabi time. We will carry that speech live, followed by analysis of the president's comments.
New director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency says he'll do his best in his new role. This is the first day on the job for the 62-year-old from Japan. Yukiya Amano is taking over from the U.N. nuclear watchdog after the 12-year stint by his predecessor Mohammed ElBaradei. Speaking to reporters he admitted there are many challenges facing the IAEA and said he hopes to be impartial and reliable.
One of the bigger challenges posed by Iran. Tehran now says it may take legal action as it pursues dramatic expansion or its nuclear program. The spokesman for the foreign ministry says Iran will write letters of protest to nations that back a rebuke from the IAEA. Iran is also ready to complaint to its allies, China and Russia, about the censure for Tehran.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RAMIN MEHMANPARAST, SPOKESMAN, IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY: (through translator): Definitely, our strategic cooperation will not change. But we have dissatisfaction over some of their actions, that we will express to them.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): We fully support the resolution of IAEA to resolve this issue through proper discussion and dialogue. At the same time solving this issue will be conducive to promoting peace and stability in the Middle East soon.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GRANT: Iran's ambassador has visited the British foreign office to discuss the case of five British sailors arrested on a racing yacht. This, as an Iranian news agency, not controlled by the government, is reporting that the five could be released within hours. CNN has not verified that information. The U.K. nationals were detained by the Iranian navy last week while on their way to Dubai from Bahrain. Britain's foreign office says their yacht may have strayed inadvertently into Iranian waters.
The emir of Dubai says the economy is strong and solid; that the emirates' markets aren't quite as certain. As for the rest of the region, Egypt took its worst hit in 13 months on Monday. Things could now be looking up. We'll have the latest when we return.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
GRANT: Welcome back.
A message of confidence from the ruler of Dubai to worried investors. Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum is describing the emirates economy as solid, strong, and persistent. That is despite regional markets tanking for the second straight day. He also touted plans for the restructuring of Dubai World, the conglomerate facing $60 billion in debts.
Well, the regional aftershocks of Dubai's debt crisis aren't confined to the UAE. Egyptian stocks have also taken a beating this week. As Senior International Correspondent Ben Wedeman explains, many investors have confidence in their country's economy.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BEN WEDEMAN, CNN SR. INT'L. CORRESPONDENT (on camera): We are at the Cairo stock exchange, one of the oldest stock exchanges in the Arab world. Now, the tremors from Dubai's financial collapse were felt in Cairo on Monday. Stocks fell by nearly 8 percent, wiping out $10 billion in stock value in just one day. But things aren't quite as grim as they might otherwise seem.
YASSER EL MALLAWANY, CEO, EFG-HERMES: Egypt was similar to other markets. You know the Qatar got hit. Most of the places got hit. But when you look at Egypt fundamentally, there is not correlation. Because first of all the UAE investments in Egypt is not that large as a percentage of total investment, at the same time, there is no exposure to Dubai in the sense of the banking sector.
WEDEMAN (voice over): Egyptian economy despite the world economic downturn is doing pretty, focused very much on things like manufacturing. In other words, Egypt actually makes things, unlike many of the Gulf economies. The Egyptian economy grew last year by more than 4 percent. And Egypt's finance minister Boutros-Ghali says in a few years economic growth could double.
(On camera): Now, financial analysts say that some of the money that is fleeing Dubai now could find a home here in Egypt.
MALLAWANY: The maturity and the transparency of the stock market makes Egypt a winner, even in tough times, because we are a better place. We have better transparency, better corporate governance. To attract FDI (ph) we also need to continue our drive to open up and to deregulate and to offer the investors more and more opportunities to come into Egypt.
WEDEMAN (On camera): And at Tuesday, close to closing time, stocks were going up more than they were going down. I'm Ben Wedeman, CNN, reporting from outside the Cairo stock exchange.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GRANT: Up next we'll take a look at your global weather picture.
And the King of Pop back in the spotlight, even after his death he continues to break records. We'll tell you about the latest one.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
GRANT: Welcome back. Time now for a look at the global weather picture. Mari Ramos is at the CNN World Weather Center.
(WEATHER REPORT)
GRANT: Yahoo! has re-crowned the King of Pop, the King of the Internet. Michael Jackson topped search requests on Yahoo! in 2009, ending singer Britney Spears' four-year reign. Analysts say Jackson's death in June drove web traffic way up.
That's it for me, Stan Grant, in Abu Dhabi. "VITAL SIGNS" is up, after we update the headlines.
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