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Parker Spitzer

Uprising in Egypt; Interview with Egyptian Blogger

Aired February 01, 2011 - 20:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


ELIOT SPITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening. I'm Eliot Spitzer, welcome to the program. Kathleen is still under the weather.

Tonight, I want you to listen to the words echoing through the streets of Cairo. It is just one word, actually, and it's coming from hundreds of thousands of people. Take a listen.

What they're saying is, "leave," and the crowds in Tahrir Square are saying it over and over again to their long-term president, Hosni Mubarak. And the taking off of shoes told much the same story. It's an age-old Arab symbol of contempt.

It is 3:00 a.m. in Cairo right now and the crowds are still there. They show no signs of giving up the fight. Earlier today, Mubarak announced that he would leave, but not until his term ends this fall and that is not enough for the demonstrators.

Nor does it appear to be enough for President Obama. Tonight, the president said, and I quote here, "An orderly transition must begin now," and he added that the demonstrators inspired him.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The people of Egypt, particularly the young people of Egypt, I want to be clear, we hear your voices. I have an unyielding belief that you will determine your own destiny and seize the promise of a better future for your children and your grandchildren.

(END OF VIDEO CLIP)

SPITZER: Now here are the very latest developments, much of this breaking in the last few moments.

Payback time as the powerful interior minister who ordered police to fire tear gas and rubber bullets on demonstrators may reportedly be facing prosecution. And tonight, in Alexandria's Martyr Square, violence as fights break out between protesters and supporters of President Hosni Mubarak.

We'll have more on that coming up.

And as the situation in Egypt continues to unfold, here are the questions we're drilling down on tonight. Who will win the battle of wills playing out in the streets of Egypt? Mubarak's decision to step down was supposed to end the demonstrations, but it didn't even come close. We'll have specific information on the protesters' next move.

Also, who will emerge to take control of Egypt after Mubarak? Will the void leave room for radical Islam? And we've seen the anti- government protests spread. What will it take to stop them from bringing down leaders in Jordan, Syria, and even Saudi Arabia?

Now let's go to Cairo where Anderson Cooper has been reporting on developments all day.

Anderson, tell us what's the latest.

ANDERSON COOPER, CNN'S AC 360: Well, Eliot, protests continue into the night here in Cairo, both against and for Hosni Mubarak. There's actually a small pro-Mubarak demonstration occurring not too far from where I'm standing right now. A couple of blocks, though, further to my right is the much larger anti-Mubarak demonstrations, which is now, of course, entering now its ninth day here.

The eighth day was on Tuesday. They had called it a march of millions. It was the largest turnout we have seen, an incredibly dramatic day, where different people from all different walks of life came to Liberation Square. Huge amounts of people, all with the single message that Hosni Mubarak must leave.

And after President Mubarak's announcement earlier this evening, they were simply not satisfied. Their outrage could be heard from blocks away, the screams, the yells and anger. They are determined to keep the protests going until Mubarak does, in fact, step down.

He shows no sign of that, however.

That message was also echoed by an opposition figure, Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei, who I spoke to earlier tonight. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

COOPER: Dr. ElBaradei, what is your reaction to President Mubarak's address tonight?

MOHAMED ELBARADEI, OPPOSITION FIGURE: Well, Anderson, this is clearly an act of deception. It's a person who doesn't want to let go. A dictator who doesn't want to listen clear voice of the people.

Anderson, you are in Cairo. You have seen what the city looks like, what the people want. And to continue to try to play fix, he is unfortunately going to extend the agony here for another six, seven months. He's going to continue to polarize the country.

He continues to get people even more angry and could resort to violence. Whoever gave him that advice gave him absolutely the wrong advice. He just has to let go. And not only is going to at best be a lame-duck president, he's going to be a dead man walking. You know, and I don't really understand what is behind that other than a further six, seven months of instability. Rather than prepare the ground for a new Egypt.

(END OF VIDEO CLIP)

COOPER: And day nine has already begun. We anticipate more protests, obviously, in Liberation Square. It remains to be seen, though, if these pro-Mubarak protests grow at all or if there's some sort of conflict or confrontation between the two groups. We'll have to see. We'll know more in a few hours -- Eliot.

SPITZER: You know, Anderson, those words from Mohamed ElBaradei are really quite striking. He has a very moderate voice most of the time, but he used -- was using very aggressive language, saying that this was an act of deception and on and on.

So what do you expect to happen tomorrow? Will the crowds in the square grow? Today was supposed to be the million-man march equivalent. What do you expect to happen tomorrow?

COOPER: Right. And protesters had talked even before Mubarak's speech of having a -- of trying to have an even larger demonstration on Friday. That remains to be seen. What we don't know, Eliot, and one of the big questions here on the ground is, will Mubarak's statement -- we know it doesn't satisfy the protesters in Liberation Square, but those are the most determined, those are the ones who have been there for eight days, those are the ones who have lost friends in this demonstration.

Those are the once who are fighting and see this as a battle that they cannot turn back from. But there is the majority of the Egyptian people, 80 million strong, who we have not heard from, who we have not necessarily seen in the streets.

And will Mubarak's statement saying, look, I'm going to be leaving, but in eight months' time, will that be enough for them? Will they say, OK, that's enough, he'll be leaving eventually, there's going to be a transition, now let's get back to normal.

We don't know the answer to that question, but in answering that question, we will learn a lot about what happens here and the future of Egypt and we will likely hear that in the days ahead.

SPITZER: You know, Anderson, one more quick question. This is the first time we've heard reports of pro-Mubarak demonstrations. In terms of size, in terms of numbers, how do they compare to the anti- Mubarak protesters?

COOPER: They are tiny. It is very small. There is sort of a rather odd vibe about it all. They're occurring, actually, near the television station, so it seems sort of designed to get some sort of television coverage. I mean, it's literally like a block from where I'm standing. And again, it is very small numbers and we only saw this pop up this evening after Mubarak's speech.

SPITZER: All right. Thank you, Anderson, for that always spectacular reporting.

Now let's turn to the White House, where senior White House correspondent Ed Henry is standing by.

Ed, the question I've got for you, the president -- President Obama spoke tonight. It seems the United States took its shot, wanted President Mubarak gone, but he's still there. Nobody seems satisfied. What happens next from the White House perspective?

ED HENRY, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, from the White House perspective, Eliot, is that they hope that they perhaps keep Ambassador Wisner, who's been on the ground there to keep him in Egypt, to keep pushing forward and sending the signal very directly on behalf of this White House to President Mubarak that this is not going to work long-term.

In public, certainly, the president was more diplomatic tonight. He came out and basically said, you know, we need a transition and it needs to begin now. He didn't name President Mubarak in terms of him leaving now, but it was an unmistakable signal that patience is running thin here at the White House.

But look, they're stopping short, in public, at least, in urging him to step aside now because of two big reasons. Number one, they still don't know who's going to fill this leadership vacuum if and when Mubarak does step down. And number two, they don't want to have the U.S.'s fingerprints all over it for pushing him out.

Replacing one dictator perhaps with a second one, in terms of the U.S. dictating who's going to be in charge. They don't want to do that. And as you heard Anderson reporting, it's unclear here whether Mohamed ElBaradei can pull together the coalition to keep this country together and end the chaos. And so this White House still being very cautious, Eliot.

SPITZER: You know, but I wonder if their caution is at the end of the day being harmful to their cause because President Mubarak would say, look, I said a transition was going to begin right now. It's a transition that will continue until the elections this fall. And so I've given you, President Obama, what you want.

And of course the White House knows that the street, as we call it in Cairo in Egypt, is nowhere close to being satisfied. And this thing could spiral out of control unless the White House pushes much harder.

HENRY: You're right. And when I talk to senior White House officials, they realized they have a problem on the Arab street. And that is why you also heard in the president's remarks, really for the first time, that he went this far in saying -- directly talking to the protesters and saying, we hear your voices. We believe you're going to be able to determine your fate.

But also adding the caveat that look, the U.S., no other country can determine Egypt's fate for them. You've got to do it on your own. Now he stopped short from saying that he's on board with the protesters, but he was very clearly in his most direct language saying, we hear your voices. We understand your plight, trying to align himself, because they know here at the White House, they've got a problem on the Arab street -- Eliot.

SPITZER: All right, Ed, thanks so much for the great reporting. We'll be chatting with you in the coming hours and days no doubt.

HENRY: Thank you.

SPITZER: When we come back, I have the rare opportunity to talk to a radical Muslim activist in London about events in Egypt. Though we may hate what he has to say, it's important to hear it. You won't want to miss this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SPITZER: For years now, Hosni Mubarak has held on to power with a simple threat -- it's either me or Muslim extremists. Turns out he was wrong. What's going on in Egypt and Tunisia and in Jordan and in Yemen is a genuine democratic uprising. But there is one conspicuous absence, radical Islam.

Tonight we have a unique opportunity to talk with one of the leading voices of Muslim extremism. Joining us now from London, Anjem Choudary.

Welcome back, Mr. Choudary.

IMAM ANJEM CHOUDARY, RADICAL MUSLIM CLERIC: Yes, good evening.

SPITZER: Good evening to you as well.

I've got to be very direct with you, Mr. Choudary. You lost. There is revolution sweeping through the Arab world in the Middle East and the voice that is conspicuously absent is the voice that you espouse, radical Islam. How do you possibly explain that?

CHOUDARY: I don't believe that at all. And I don't believe that the Muslims in the streets in Tunisia, in Yemen, in Jordan, in Lebanon, in Egypt believe that either. I mean, you can look at the developments in Egypt today, a million people praying together, openly, publicly displaying the Islam, vowing to the black house, not to the White House, the chants of Allah is the greatest.

The calls for the Sharia can be heard, you know, in the streets of those countries where the revolution is taking place. This is an Islamic revolution. By your own analysis, your commentators say that the strongest force out there are the Muslim Brotherhood, and they are the ones most likely to take power in Egypt.

So I don't think that this is right at all. There are phases through which people go suddenly. You know on many of these countries, even Iran, Afghanistan, you know, Iraq before went through a nationalistic stage. But they've tasted nationalism, they've tasted dictatorship, they've tasted even freedom and democracy, and I think now they need to taste the Sharia and Islam, and I think -- SPITZER: Mr. Choudary?

CHOUDARY: -- that is the future.

SPITZER: Mr. Choudary, with all due respect, I certainly do not believe and I think very few people here believe that the Muslim Brotherhood is the most powerful force, as an alternative power center to President Mubarak in Egypt. The fact of the matter is, in Tunisia, in Egypt, in Yemen, what we see is an outpouring of educated individuals who want jobs, who want freedom, who want the freedom that they have seen in Europe and in the United States.

They are not embracing your form of theocracy in any way, shape, or form. What they want are the freedoms that have been promised to them by President Mubarak, but not delivered. But those are the freedoms of Europe and the United States. And it may be part and parcel of Islam, but it is certainly not the radical Islam that you espouse.

You are not even persuading your own populations at this point.

CHOUDARY: I totally disagree. I believe that there is an outpouring of resentment for the oppression that the Egyptian people and the Tunisians, et cetera, face certainly. We can agree about that. There is oppression, there is dictatorship, there is the hegemony of, you know, Mubarak and Ben Ali.

But the fact that these people now want the Americans, you know, to dictate to them or they want freedom and democracy, they can see what happened with the propagation of freedom and democracy with the B-52 bombers in Afghanistan. They can see what freedom and democracy has done to the people in Palestine.

They can see the Americans, you know, are trying their best to uphold people like Mubarak in order to look after their own interests, their economic and military interests. They're not concerned about the Muslims in the area.

SPITZER: Mr. Choudary --

CHOUDARY: These people don't know the freedom and democracy of America.

SPITZER: Again, with all due respect, I have not heard one word about Afghanistan in this revolution. I have not heard one word even about Hamas and the Palestinian cause. This is about the desires of Egyptian citizens to have freedom and jobs, the same concerns that run throughout populations across the world.

You are trying to impose upon them the concerns of radical Islam. That is simply not what this is about. This is about the economic well-being of the population in Egypt that has been suppressed by a dictator. And they want that dictator gone, but they would prefer the Egyptian army, which has been a stalwart force of the status quo, but they trust the army to radical Islam. And that has what has come through over the past few days. They are embracing the army, not radical Islam. This is clear to everybody who has watched.

CHOUDARY: Mr. Spitzer, I think that you need to get out of the CNN walls in which you live and not believe your own propaganda. We are in touch with people in Egypt, in Syria, in Lebanon. We know very well that al Qaeda have already entered en masse into these areas.

The Islamists are called for the Sharia, the scholars, you know, who -- before called for an uprising people like Sheik Ayman al- Zawahiri, you know, and his videos and messages, people like Sheikh Omar Bakri Muhammad that were already calling for an uprising.

This is a response to those people and others. You know, and people are already saying that we need to release the Muslims, which has already been done on a large scale, from prisons. They are calling for the release of Sheik Omar Abdel-Rahman.

You know this has all the flavors of an Islamic uprising. Maybe you don't see it with your eyes, but you need to look at it from my eyes and you need to have your ear to the ground in places like Egypt and the Muslim world.

We are the people who suffer, we know what the problem is, and we know the solution. The temporary solution may well be -- the temporary solution may well be a transition government, you know, put in place perhaps with the help of the Americans, but eventually we can see, as in southern Iraq and Afghanistan, in Yemen, in Somalia, that this will transform when the people have time to reflect into an Islamic revolution.

And eventually we will see the Sharia -- and I'll tell you something, this will be the beginning of the end of Israel and the American influence in the Middle East.

SPITZER: Mr. Choudary, perhaps the only thing you've ever said that you and I can agree on is that I spend too much time in the CNN studio. Other than that, I could not disagree with you more fundamentally.

Let me tell you something. When you look at what happened in Tunisia, this was an uprising of educated, middle class citizens, forming a new coalition government, bringing in to the new government, not the vestiges of the dictatorship of the past, but also not radical Islam.

They want a sophisticated government to generate economic growth. It is the same thing in Egypt and there has not been a single word about the Sharia being part of the new coalition government in Egypt.

You have Mohamed ElBaradei, who is a sophisticated, educated individual. He does not want to bring your form of law. He wants to bring economic progress, which is antithetical to what you want.

So I think you are the one who needs to listen to what's going on in the ground in Egypt and get rid of the rhetoric that you were trying to espouse very unsuccessfully.

CHOUDARY: Let me tell you something. If you are talking about the democracy and the freedom and the economic success which, you know, supposedly you want to propagate around the world which people see in America and Britain, well, I think that, you know, you have social and economic collapse.

You know, you have a huge, if you like, failure of the capitalist system way of life. People don't want liberal democracy. They look at your system, they see the trillions of dollars of debt, they see that people don't have the basic rights met.

You know we need a system -- let's forget about the rhetoric. We need a system which provides the basic needs of food, clothing and shelter, which protects the life, the wealth, the honor, the mind of all of the citizens. Which treats people like human beings and gives a system which agrees with their nature and gives them prosperity.

I'll tell you something, the only system in the history of all of these nations which gave that and allowed the people to live together peacefully was the Sharia, under the Khilafah system. Not under democracy, not under freedom, and not under the dictators we see nowadays.

SPITZER: Mr. Choudary, with all due respect once again, even with the economic turmoil of the past several years here in the United States and in Europe, and throughout Asia, which of course has been a genuine problem, we are so far ahead of the dictatorships and the Islamic regimes that you have supported that have imposed nothing but destitution upon their populations.

And that is the reason across the world people desire to model their economic structures after what we have done here for 200 years, which is capitalism, freedom, tolerance. Again, the farthest thing that is possible one could imagine from what you espouse, which is dictatorship and a complete lack of tolerance.

So, again, I think facts would inform your argument. I really think. And by the way, why do you live in London? Why do you cherish the economics of London and Britain as opposed to returning back to some other country to proselytize?

CHOUDARY: Let me tell you something. The history of Africa itself best testimony and gauge what you are espousing. Countries like Sudan, Ethiopia were known as the true (INAUDIBLE) of Africa. Even Egypt was very prosperous under the Sharia.

Don't forget that this is a system which existed for over a millennium in the area. Only very recently have we had post (INAUDIBLE) and industrial revolution, a type of dictatorship, you know, which has been implemented by the way by the very masters in the west who are supposedly propagating freedom and democracy.

They're the ones who've been in control of those regimes. So, you know, on the one hand, if you're interested in the -- if you like the well-being of the Muslims, you have -- you would not have propped up Mubarak for so many years. On the other hand, if you look historically, we can find that under the Sharia, these regimes that have prospered when the Sharia was implemented.

And thirdly, I would say look, you know, I live in Britain because I was born here, I grew up here. But I don't believe that Britain belongs to David Cameron or Tony Blair, you know, or to Barack Obama. Britain belongs to Allah. And we will implement the Sharia in Britain.

As you may well know, the statistics show that the Muslims are the fastest growing community in the whole of Europe, if I think the world nowadays. There are more people embracing Islam than any other ideology. And even in Europe, for your information -- for your information, if you don't mind me saying, you know, 30 miles south of France, the Sharia was implemented. In the whole of Spain, Austria, you know, Switzerland, places like (INAUDIBLE) Roads. Islam is not alien --

SPITZER: Mr. Choudary?

CHOUDARY: -- to western civilization.

SPITZER: Mr. Choudary, if I could just add one more little data point, a fact that should inform you even in Lebanon, where Hezbollah has begun to play a role in the government, they are not embracing your vision of what government should be.

They have chosen a prime minister, their own choice, Mr. Mikati, who is specifically designed to be acceptable to western, European, and United States governments because they want to continue the economic process that Lebanon was making.

So even when Hezbollah, as close as you will ever get to a force for Islamic fundamentalism, taking over a government in the Middle East, even they are saying, we do not want to go where you want to go, Mr. Choudary.

I just don't think history is moving in your direction and I think when you look at the public in the Middle East, you've got to come to terms with that fact.

CHOUDARY: You know, let me tell you something. None of the regimes today in the world today, in the Muslim world, are implementing Sharia. We don't agree with what Hezbollah are doing as much as we don't agree with the Iranian regime or even the -- you know, the Sudanese or the Saudi regime.

These people are still implementing non-Islamic law. We haven't had the Sharia implemented as an example, as a model until before 1924. But I can tell you something that in all of these countries, you know, they have failed to provide the basic needs for the people and, you know, if there was an election tomorrow between people like, you know, Hosni Mubarak or Ben Ali, and Sheik Osama bin Laden, I'll tell you something, Sheik Osama bin Laden would win and there would be a landslide.

SPITZER: All right, Mr. Choudary.

CHOUDARY: The fact is you only have one people in the elections nowadays in the Muslim world. No wonder they win.

SPITZER: Mr. Choudary, look, I think our sense of history obviously diverges so fundamentally, I don't even know where to start. The only thing I will say to you is thank you for showing up at the studio tonight.

You are wrong in your history and you're wrong in every other way, but thank you for being in the studio tonight.

CHOUDARY: You're welcome. And I think that we should read our history from an Islamic perspective.

SPITZER: All right. I will send you some books to read, sir.

Next, if President Mubarak's speech to the nation was meant to calm the waters, guess again. We'll go to the streets of Cairo to talk to a blogger who's played a key role in organizing the demonstrations.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SPITZER: Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak today announced he would step down, eventually, when his term is over. But the people want him out now, right now. And so the crowd in Cairo's Tahrir Square remains outraged.

That's one reason the government continues to block access to information, both on television and the Internet, fearful of the reaction from angry protesters.

Joining us again tonight by phone from Tahrir Square is Egyptian human rights activist and blogger, Ramy Raoof.

Ramy, thanks for joining us.

RAMY RAOOF, EGYPTIAN BLOGGER: Pleasure.

SPITZER: Who is emerging as the leader, if anybody, of the public protests? Is there somebody who is standing up and is the focal points that you would like to see emerge as the next president of the Egypt?

RAOOF: Actually, people are not thinking of who is coming next. People are now focusing on Mubarak to step down. That's our big concern right now. Who will come next and what will happen, people didn't think about this. People are thinking about Mubarak to leave right now.

SPITZER: What is your sense of the role of the Muslim Brotherhood? Are they powerful in this protest and are they a radical group or not? RAOOF: No, I think the Muslim Brotherhood are joining the demonstrators like in other (INAUDIBLE). They're not playing any specific role. They're not (INAUDIBLE) anything. They're not hurting the people. They are also (INAUDIBLE) any chance. Just joining us like any other people in Egypt.

SPITZER: What is your view and what do others think of the role the United States has played so far?

RAOOF: I listen to what -- I listen to how Obama administration are seeing the situation in Egypt, but whatever he's saying, I think it's a bit late because if you really want to do support Egyptian people, he had many chances earlier, not now.

SPITZER: When we look at a map and we can put one on the screen, you may not be able to see it, of course, but we see revolution breaking out throughout the Middle East. It began in Tunisia, it's now in Yemen, Egypt, of course, Jordan, and Lebanon. What is happening? What is happening in the youth in particular of the Middle East, the Arab youth that is generating the spirit of revolution right now?

RAOOF: I think it's very simple. Once people decide to change the situation, they will change the situation. People in Tunisia want to change the situation and to end Ben Ali's regime, and they did. And now, people in Egypt also want to change the situation in Egypt and improve their own status in life here in Egypt. And now we are doing it. I think any people in any country, if they want to improve their country, they will be able to do it.

SPITZER: All right, Ramy, thank you for this update. We will continue to talk to you over the next couple of days no doubt. Thank you so much.

RAOOF: Thank you. Thank you.

SPITZER: When we come back, Egypt has seen it all, from Cleopatra to Napoleon. But now, something new, democracy. Is it real or just a mirage in the desert? Stay tuned.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SPITZER: In a matter of days, we've witnessed a democratic uprising in the Middle East, one that's grabbed the world's attention and is shaking up its leadership. Is this a new dawn for the region, or is there reason to fear that radical Islam will step in to fill the shoes of the old regimes?

I'm joined tonight by two very smart foreign policy experts. Bret Stephens is the foreign affairs columnist for the "Wall Street Journal," and Gideon Rose is the editor of "Foreign Affairs" magazine and author of the book "How Wars End."

Gentleman, welcome and thank you for joining me. First, the obvious question, is it enough President Mubarak is saying he will not stand for re-election? BRET STEPHENS, FOREIGN AFFAIRS COLUMNIST, "WALL STREET JOURNAL": No, because we're going to have some kind of transition. We don't know really who the opposition leaders are. There's a lot of attention on Mohamed ElBaradei, the former head of the IAEA, but he appears to be something of a figurehead in this movement. We don't know the strength or involvement of the Muslim Brotherhood, with which he's made some kind of involvement. We don't really know many of the other actors.

SPITZER: Since we don't know who the precise leader will be, is it likely that a theocratic leader would emerge and this becomes something akin to what we have in Iran? Or is this going to be a more secular government?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I find that almost impossible --

STEPHENS: You search for various historical models, and one that came to mind while I was writing my column the other day, is the model of Alexander Kerensky, the provisional leader in Russia after the fall of the czar, liberal minded, progressive, quickly supplanted by the Bolsheviks. You might have a similar situation with an ElBaradei-type figure who is respectable abroad, but doesn't really have a constituency at home, finding himself supplanted by a Muslim Brotherhood that is organized in willful.

GIDEON ROSE, AUTHOR, "HOW WARS END": Even the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood is not like Ayatollah Khomeini. And I really find there are so many sources of anti-extremism within Egypt, that although that's the great bogeyman and the great worry that it would turn radical, I would be quite surprised at the end of the day.

STEPHENS: Look at the Iranian revolution. When the shah fell, it wasn't just the ayatollah and the Islamists were pushing for his departure. It was everyone. It was Marxists, it was liberals, it was socialists -- people from every element in society. It was the fact that the Islamists were the most willful, the most capable of deploying violence, which gave them the upper hand.

SPITZER: Has the United States played this properly? Have we intervened at the right moment, either to stabilize or to push to get the appropriate outcome?

STEPHENS: Well, it depends if you're looking at it from the space of a single week following Secretary Clinton's lamentable comment about Mubarak. I think the administration has done a fairly good job feeling its way in a fast-moving situation. The larger problem is that over the last two years, part of what the Obama administration did is say, we're going to retreat from the so-called freedom agenda. That's all George Bush. We are going to deal with the dictators that we know. And that's the way in which they dealt with Mubarak. So they have actually lost credibility with the Egyptian people.

ROSE: With all due respect, what we've seen in Egypt, one of the fascinating angles of this is really about Egyptian politics. But one of the fascinating angles is how irrelevant the American democracy promotion agenda and the American forward-leaning stance actually is. George Bush talked a big game in Egypt, didn't do all that much, did something and nothing happened. Obama doesn't talk the game at all, and yet a popular revolution breaking out throughout the region.

STEPHENS: You're right in the sense that Bush in my view had the rhetoric right. You had Condoleezza Rice going to Cairo in 2005, giving what I thought was a terrific speech, and then there was no follow up. There was no execution. Ayman Nour contested the election. He was put in prison. The Bush administration barely protested. You had a U.S. ambassador, a Bush administration ambassador in Cairo who was basically a sycophant to Hosni Mubarak. So the rhetoric was there, the execution wasn't. In the case of Obama, there was neither rhetoric nor execution.

SPITZER: Do you give the president no credit for his speech in Cairo shortly after he became president in which he talked about the values of democracy and tolerance.

ROSE: No, that was really about making nice with the Muslim world. It wasn't really about sort of pushing democracy in the region.

STEPHENS: He's right.

SPITZER: I'm glad to get you two guys to agree on something. All right. I read that speech and actually thought this was the beginning perhaps of an articulation of a democracy agenda. You're right, after that it fell apart.

ROSE: I think Bret's right about Obama not pushing a democracy agenda. But I think what this shows is, you know, this is about Egyptians doing it for themselves. It's not about us. It's about them. And they're getting rid of Mubarak.

SPITZER: Having said that, will the public having seen the U.S. involvement give us any credit for Mubarak's departure and perhaps temper some of the anti-American spirit that was infusing the public in the past few days?

STEPHENS: No, I tend to doubt that because the administration has sort of taken a relatively ambiguous line. Biden saying one thing, Mubarak is not a dictator, Hillary Clinton's tune changing. I think they're going to view this as if this is a liberation. They're going to view this as their own liberation. On the other hand, beware that the most important thing happening in Cairo and throughout Egypt now isn't necessarily what's happening in Liberation Square. It's the orgy of looting and chaos that's taken place throughout Cairo.

Friends of mine in Cairo and elsewhere have been telling me that they have been sort of organizing practically vigilante groups, walking around with clubs and knives, terrified of hooliganism. And that's going to play into the hands of the regime, whether it's Mubarak's regime or his successors.

ROSE: Exactly. I think that -- you don't want democracy and anti-authoritarianism to be connected with chaos and violence. That was one of the problems in Iraq and it might be one of the problems here. And there are theories that the regime is letting this happen precisely to show, look, you don't want us gone? This is the alternative.

SPITZER: Does this democracy movement now swing over to Jordan? Does it continue to spread throughout the Middle East? Tunisia, Yemen, Egypt --

ROSE: It doesn't go to Saudi. I'll make that prediction here.

STEPHENS: I was about to say this --

ROSE: There's some --

STEPHENS: Interestingly, what's interesting to me is the reaction that's coming out of Iran. The Iranian leaders have actually been cheering what's going on in Egypt, thinking that it plays into their hands. I saw the Iranian press TV massively exaggerating the size of the protests in Cairo. They should be careful about encouraging these sorts of protests.

ROSE: I don't even think it goes to Jordan. I think the monarchies actually are going to be OK. The republics might be a little bit more difficult than the monarchies which have a slightly greater bit of legitimacy.

SPITZER: So you're saying the pretense of democracy is less stable than a monarchy?

STEPHENS: Yes, Republic --

ROSE: Because the successions are being engineered for the kids. Everybody hates it when the undeserving next generation inherits illegitimately in a non-democratic way.

SPITZER: I want to come back to what you said about Iran. Are you suggesting, then, that this is not going to generate increased support for radical Islam?

STEPHENS: It might generate -- I mean, the fact is, we don't know. You look at the ball, you look at the crystal ball, it's very cloudy. We don't know what's going to happen in Jordan. We don't know where else this is going to spread. We don't know what the outcome is going to be in Egypt. And we don't know what's, say, Iranians on the street, what less (INAUDIBLE).

SPITZER: All right, Gideon and Bret, fascinating conversation. Thank you. This will continue no doubt in the days ahead.

Coming up, we'll go back to Cairo and our reporter on the ground, Ben Wedeman, he's heard the outrage in the streets, but is that the end of the story? And an old hand in Egypt gives an insight into what's next. When we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) SPITZER: We've all heard the quote, those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it. But history never repeats itself exactly, so which points in our past should we be looking at now to shed light on the revolution sweeping the Middle East? Here to help, our resident historian, Columbia University history professor, Simon Schama.

Simon, thank you for stopping by.

SIMON SCHAMA, HISTORY PROFESSOR, COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY: Hello, Eliot.

SPITZER: So what are the historical metaphors and where can we glean some understanding of this explosion of revolutions in the Middle East?

SCHAMA: Tolstoy said at the beginning of "Anna Karenina" that all happy families are alike, all unhappy families are unhappy in a very particular way. And you can say the same thing about revolutions. None of them are exactly alike. However, anyone who has lived in, you know, even as a historian, with sort of formless adrenaline, the kind of energy rush of huge revolutionary crowds, the closest I got to it was Paris in 1968, will recognize certain key things that drive people's passions at this moment. Anger and hunger, and not necessarily in that order.

It's especially the case in Cairo, where that's all you really have. You actually have a figure on whom you display all the fury of your hatred if your predicament in the form of Mubarak, and nobody or no group of people on whom you can pin your hope. So anger and hunger are the two great kind of pistons that drive people forward.

SPITZER: That is fair. We'll get to hunger in a moment. You're saying the anger is remarkable. There is huge anger, visible, visceral in the streets in Cairo. And nobody yet has harnessed it. No individual seems to be the beneficiary of it. It seems to be a leaderless revolution. Is that unique? Is that unusual?

SCHAMA: It's very surprising -- I mean, it is actually very extraordinary because usually revolutions do get prepared by underground press or something of that kind. So there are people who put themselves forward as the (INAUDIBLE) of the collapse of the incompetent and the evil. And often there are political, particular political prisoners.

The figure of Mohamed ElBaradei, this slightly, if you'll forgive the phrase, professorial figure emerging from the international community is very unlikely, precisely because of the fact that he has international recognition. That's not a good thing. You want someone from the kind of heart and soul of the world of the ordinary people of Cairo or even from the peasantry. There's always a kind of ElBaradei figure, Rafsanjani in Iran. There's always, people like you and me, sort of overeducated well-meaning types --

SPITZER: I'll take that as a compliment for now. SCHAMA: Of course, who are basically the patsies of transition. You know, if you had -- "Time" magazine, there's always a kind of bunch or the patsies of transition. It never ends up like that. And essentially, the way it -- because the problem is that you can't eat constitutions, you can't actually eat freedom. And this particular moment, when everything seems possible, the notion is you can both be exhilarated in your freedom and have enough food (INAUDIBLE) on the table. When that doesn't happen, you look to strength and militancy.

My hunch, there will be some strongman who will come from the army and who will be a kind of (INAUDIBLE) like figure, someone who'll promise constitutional freedoms up to a point with the strength of the army behind it. Or you've got the Muslim Brotherhood.

The good news, actually, for us sitting around here, is that, weirdly, the problem with ElBaradei is also a problem for the Muslim Brotherhood. The problem for the Muslim Brotherhood is that they are strangely internationalists, even though they were founded in Egypt in 1928. The notion that they're part of an international fundamentalist Islamic movement is not good in Egypt. Egypt is driven by deep, ferocious, nationalist passions that go back to the 1880s, as you know, young Eliot Spitzer.

SPITZER: Before we get to 1880s, the Muslim Brotherhood is also not in the forefront of this last week.

SCHAMA: No.

SPITZER: At its earliest stages, it was students, it was not the Muslim Brotherhood.

SCHAMA: Right.

SPITZER: And they claim the mantle of leadership.

SCHAMA: It's trickier for them than we think. And, you know, in the kind of world of people who are just out of it, the Glenn Becks, our rivals and so on, there's Manichean-like, oh it's an international -- that misunderstands the force of particularly Egyptian nationalists.

SPITZER: Right.

SCHAMA: My own hunch is that they're unlikely to prevail against a military figure who presents themselves as a citizen general, but above all who embodies Egypt itself. They would not win against someone, against "colonel Egypt," whoever that's going to be.

SPITZER: Right. But what you described, the anger that is motivating this right now, and that's sort of the need to demonstrate that anger, which suggests, in fact, as history also suggests this, that revolutions go through the radicalization.

SCHAMA: Yes.

SPITZER: And you get to the radical moment before you then come back to the military. So is that what you're predicting here?

SCHAMA: Yes, I think that will probably be true. It really depends, actually, whether there's going to be a parade of malefactors. That would be sort of horrible and punitive. But that sort of very often happens, especially when there's a slight paranoid moment in the revolution. That hasn't happened yet. We're still in the fall of the Bastille moment. We're still full of this kind of, you know, exhilarated picnic moments of fraternity and sorority in the streets of Cairo.

SPITZER: The sorority was not what I remember in the slogans from 1789, but that's OK.

SCHAMA: No.

SPITZER: But what you're suggesting then is that stopping this in its tracks with merely the offer from Mubarak that he'll leave office simply isn't going to happen?

SCHAMA: No. You have to -- it's a matter of mass psychology, actually. He cannot be in charge any longer, of satisfying the Egyptian people. He can't actually call the shots.

SPITZER: Let's step back for a second. Are we seeing the rise of democracy in the Middle East?

SCHAMA: You know, democracy takes many forms. I mean, we're not seeing, as everybody says, whatever this phrase means, Jeffersonian democracy. Alexis de Tocqueville, there's no point for once in summoning our inner Tocqueville.

SPITZER: Right.

SCHAMA: But, you know, there is Turkish democracy. Actually that isn't a representative system, in which an Islamic party is in power but is not in business of coercive --

SPITZER: More secular than most governments.

SCHAMA: That's right. That's right. So it's possible that maybe they'll be some form of democracy, as I said, going back to the late 19th century, which is particularly suited to, you know, Egyptian conditions. And if, in fact, the revolution spreads to other states, it might, it might not, it won't be the same in Jordan, it won't be the same in Syria, and it's not the same in Iran.

SPITZER: All right. Simon Schama, as always, fascinating. This will continue, no doubt. And our resident historian will be back here to continue the conversation and the history lesson. Thanks so much.

Up next, we'll go back to Cairo for the latest on the demonstrations that even at almost 4:00 in the morning continue to go on. Stay with us. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) SPITZER: Angry crowds in Cairo's Tahrir Square chanted "we're not leaving." This after Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak announced he will step down, but not until his term ends this September. September is not soon enough for the million-strong gathering in Cairo.

Senior international correspondent Ben Wedeman has been with the crowds in the square all day. He joins us now on the phone -- Ben.

BEN WEDEMAN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (via telephone): Yes, thanks, Eliot. It's true that there's still crowds in Tahrir Square calling for the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak and probably they will be, as they say, in that square for days to come making this demand. But there are many, many more, millions of Egyptians who met with relief the news that President Mubarak will not stand for another term as president in September.

Many Egyptians who haven't participated in these demonstrations are concerned about real practical matters, bread and butter issues. They want to get back to work. They want their children to go back to their schools and universities. They want to be able to get paid. Keep in mind that many people have no access to the money, to their money in the bank. And, of course, Egyptians live, many Egyptians live a day-to-day basis. They cannot afford to stay out of work for more than a few days. So many people feel that even though they wanted the president to leave now, that this could diffuse the situation and allow for Egypt to get back to business. Because at the moment, it is utterly paralyzed with the railways closed, the Internet closed down, the stock market is closed. The country just is not functioning at the moment.

SPITZER: Ben, if I hear you properly, you're suggesting that perhaps President Mubarak may be able to survive until September, and that the relief you're talking about says that maybe many more millions are happy to have him stay, as long as they know he's leaving this September. Do I hear you properly on that point?

WEDEMAN: That's true. But let's not forget that it's often not the silent majority that determines the fate of nations, so to speak. That what we've seen in Cairo in the last eight days is an unprecedented move by a group of Egyptian activists who have made themselves heard in ways that they never were heard before. And I think that's another important aspect to keep in mind in this current situation, is that regardless of what President Mubarak does, Egypt will never be the same again. People have realized their power, their ability to influence, in fact, direct the course of events by going out into the streets and demonstrating so vigorously, so energetically, so loudly, making their point. So, as I said, many Egyptians just want to get back to work. But you have a very active group who are demanding immediate change -- Eliot.

SPITZER: You know, we have heard from Mohamed ElBaradei, who is one of the leaders of the revolution today, saying that President Mubarak's speech was clearly not enough. Certainly others in the Cairo streets saying it is not enough. When is the next moment when we will be able to judge whether or not this revolution is gaining strength or losing strength? WEDEMAN: Well, I think tomorrow will begin to tell us where this is going. There's talks of another huge demonstration on Friday, and it appears that the battle lines are being drawn. That President Mubarak has made his confession and if they are not enough for the people in the streets, for the protest movement, then we really could see more violence in the streets of Cairo as the battle really moves from the political sphere to street politics in its roughest, most potentially violent form -- Eliot.

SPITZER: All right. Thank you, Ben, for that. Always insightful observation and report from the streets of Cairo. It is going to be fascinating to watch in the days and nights ahead to see what happens.

Thank you all so much for watching tonight. Join me again tomorrow. Good night from New York.

"PIERS MORGAN TONIGHT" starts right now.